barackdhouse
Footballguy
I wonder if Vance McDonald is the one that's the most undervalued right now.
I've been targeting him in mock drafts. He's been going pretty late, allowing me to wait on the position. With Jesse James gone, if he can stay healthy he'll do some damage.I wonder if Vance McDonald is the one that's the most undervalued right now.
I doubt that based on offers I've seen this offseason. In several different leagues I've received unsolicited offers for McDonald where they are valuing him as if he was a top 5 dynasty TE.I wonder if Vance McDonald is the one that's the most undervalued right now.
While Ben’s 675 attempts last year certainly looks like (and is) an outlier I don’t think it’s by as much as it would seem at face value. In the 26 games played with Bell from 2015-2017 Ben averaged 36.6 attempts per game for a 16 game average of 589 passes per year. In 29 games played without Bell from 2015-18, Ben averaged 41.1 attempts per game for a 16 game average of 658 attempts per season. If you throw out last year it’s still 39.8 and 638. It seems and makes sense that without Bell, Ben will throw more. Now you take away AB so you probably lose some attempts but I think he’s still going to be in the 630 range. Not 675 but still leaves 160 ish targets vacated when you account for AB and James leaving. Personally I’m betting on Diontae Johnson (Esp at his ADP) as breaking out as the second wr within a few games but if you like Washington there is definitely a path to triple digit targets.Third, you’re missing the fact Ben’s 2018 passing attempts were between 70-90 higher than his previous two 16-game seasons, which are also rare for him in the first place.
Really that's too bad. I couldn't sell him for free it seems.I doubt that based on offers I've seen this offseason. In several different leagues I've received unsolicited offers for McDonald where they are valuing him as if he was a top 5 dynasty TE.
He hasn't been traded yet in any of the leagues where owners offered him to me either. I think that owners have a really high perceived value on him whereas others haven't been paying attention to him and don't have him rated as highly.Really that's too bad. I couldn't sell him for free it seems.
I moved him and Woods for Njoku and a 2020 1st a couple weeks ago. I also moved Washington during our rookie draft last month. If I remember right it was a mid 2nd and I took JJAW.He hasn't been traded yet in any of the leagues where owners offered him to me either. I think that owners have a really high perceived value on him whereas others haven't been paying attention to him and don't have him rated as highly.
No kidding. JuJu type early breakouts are rare and far between. For context, AB went 16/167/0 his rookie season. Patience grasshoppers!I'm constantly amazed by the lack of patience people have on this board with young WRs.
I agree. At this point I'm holding unless I can get any 2020 1st. Playing with JuJu presents big opportunities. If he busts I'll go down with the ship... I have very little risk to some big rewardNo kidding. JuJu type early breakouts are rare and far between. For context, AB went 16/167/0 his rookie season. Patience grasshoppers!
I'd love to buy Chark. I havent seen too many people down on him personally.Washington was terrible in 2018. He didn't look good, and his stats were bottom of the barrel any way you slice it. That doesn't mean that we should call "game over" on his career already, but I have definitely downgraded him compared to where I had him a year ago.
It's weird that people seem to be counting Chark's awful rookie year against him way more than they're doing with Washington.
If someone offered me JJAW for Washington I'd accept in a hurry. Although that cant happen because I own JJAWI'm not down on Washington so much as I was and am much higher on JJAW. Also I only recently acquired Washington in part of a bigger deal so as far as not giving someone long enough to develop, it's not like I drafted him and then gave up. He was just a flippable asset and I am betting JJAW is better. He who I *did* draft and will want to show some patience with. But if I can flip for what I think will be a profit......
It was specifically the 2.06 and I offered JW to them and then took JJAW but yes.If someone offered me JJAW for Washington I'd accept in a hurry. Although that cant happen because I own JJAW
I don't think its weird that people value Washington a lot more than Chark. Chark did nothing, and is in an offense that will be mediocre at best. Washington, while disappointing, showed some signs of life, and was universally considered a much better prospect than Chark coming out, and also is in a potentially elite offense.Washington was terrible in 2018. He didn't look good, and his stats were bottom of the barrel any way you slice it. That doesn't mean that we should call "game over" on his career already, but I have definitely downgraded him compared to where I had him a year ago.
It's weird that people seem to be counting Chark's awful rookie year against him way more than they're doing with Washington.
In the "which rbs would you pay a first for" thread, people were arguing that Melvin Gordon was worth a mid first.Maybe I'll be wrong, but I would want a mid-1st for Washington, Chark is basically a lottery ticket, probably on par with an average 3rd rounder.
Except it isn't straightforward at all. Situation in Pittsburgh changed drastically, allowing for Washington to have a shot. QB in Jacksonville changed, potentially allowing Chark to do better. Coach in Miami changed, and maybe he won't be a complete tool. Coach in Tampa Bay changed and he has a history of stellar RB performances.It's not weird that most people liked Washington more than Chark coming into the league. It is weird that Washington and Chark haved moved in opposite directions in people's minds, after similar rookie seasons. Though I guess the weird part there is all about Washington going up in value.
Washington, Chark, Rosen, Gesicki, and Ronald Jones all played badly as rookies. They should all be worth less than they were a year ago. It seems pretty straightforward.
I wouldn't trade Gordon for Washington either.bostonfred said:In the "which rbs would you pay a first for" thread, people were arguing that Melvin Gordon was worth a mid first.
I can't imagine someone trading Gordon for Washington straight up.
I think you're too high on Washington and they were too low on Gordon but maybe I'm wrong. Happened before.
I would disagree. Washington's situation greatly improved when Brown was traded. If he were in a similar situation as last year, I could see his value being lower than a year ago, but its vastly different. On the other hand, Chark's situation is the same, possibly worse since Marquise Lee will(should?) be healthy, and Chris Conley was added. Foles replacing Bortles should help, but it also might not.ZWK said:It's not weird that most people liked Washington more than Chark coming into the league. It is weird that Washington and Chark haved moved in opposite directions in people's minds, after similar rookie seasons. Though I guess the weird part there is all about Washington going up in value.
Washington, Chark, Rosen, Gesicki, and Ronald Jones all played badly as rookies. They should all be worth less than they were a year ago. It seems pretty straightforward.
JuJu Smith-Schuster believes James Washington "will sneak up on people this year."
When asked about who will be the No. 2 option in 2019, JuJu noted the Steelers are excited about Donte Moncrief, but he then went on to talk up Washington's "great" camp. Last year, Washington only caught 42% of his 38 targets, so he'll need to take a big second-year leap to have a productive 2019 season. Moncrief, Washington, and third-round rookie Diontae Johnson are competing for the 226 available targets from last year. There's room for one to break out but targets are likely to be spread out evenly behind JuJu.
SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter
Jul 8, 2019, 2:20 PM ET
If we pro rate Bens passing attempts for missed games since 2013 he has averaged 612 pass attempts per year which is a lot, yet still significantly lower than the high water mark of 675 he has last season. That is an insane number of attempts. We are talking about two games worth more than his average.Big Ben throws too much for the WR2 in PIT to not have decent value.
While this is interesting I think it still needs more context. For 3 of those seasons Bell had about 100 targets and was their WR two just playing a different position. I think we should look at the seasons where Bell wasn't dominating targets such as 2013, 2015 and last season for a sense of what will happen this season, without Bell or Brown it changes the offense dramatically.This was my sentiment, until I checked the stats. In the last 6 yrs, the WR2 has finished 8th, 22nd, 63rd, 39th, 59th, and 32nd. Outside of AB and Juju, the only guy who was even a WR3 was Emmanuel Sanders in 2013. Unless a clear WR2 emerges behind Juju, they may all cancel each other out.
Another factor is Ben likes to throw to his TE and passes a lot to his RBs, and I don't see that changing this year even without Bell (Samuels/Conner combo had as many catches and yards last year as Bell did in 2017).TheWinz said:Big Ben throws too much for the WR2 in PIT to not have decent value. This was my sentiment, until I checked the stats. In the last 6 yrs, the WR2 has finished 8th, 22nd, 63rd, 39th, 59th, and 32nd. Outside of AB and Juju, the only guy who was even a WR3 was Emmanuel Sanders in 2013. Unless a clear WR2 emerges behind Juju, they may all cancel each other out.
While that is true the Steelers also threw 675 times for those players to get those targets.Another factor is Ben likes to throw to his TE and passes a lot to his RBs, and I don't see that changing this year even without Bell (Samuels/Conner combo had as many catches and yards last year as Bell did in 2017).
Very good points, but I think the better question is - is Washington better than Moncrief, Switzer, and Johnson, enough so to out-target them by a good margin?Biabreakable said:I think the opportunity is there. The question is if Washington is talented enough to earn higher volume than Sanders or Bryant did?
I do think Washington is a better WR than Wheaton was, that is not saying much. Based on the college evaluation I dont think he is as good as Bryant but maybe he could be as good as Sanders?
Well, it surely won't be Switzer, but I don't see him getting cut, so that just leaves Washington, Moncrief, Diontae, and what should be a bit over 200 targets. PIT certainly wants to find a WR2 to go along with Juju, instead of just playing WR2 carousel. In the end, maybe it works out that way though. Maybe they start with Washington for the first part of the season, then switch to Moncrief when they get tired of his suckage. Then repeat the process in the second half of the season with the rookie.In regards to if Washington can earn the 2nd most targets for WR I dont know.
I think Moncrief isnt the answer because he didnt do much with Luck. They didnt retain him.
But maybe Mobcrief is good enough? And more importantly better than Washington?
He is certainly more experienced. I just dont see him breaking out at this stage of his career. Maybe Washington or someone else could.
I think the highest possiblity is for these wrs to have targets of 75, 75, 50... rather than one to have 100 and be fantasy relevant, and the other two to have 50.Well, it surely won't be Switzer, but I don't see him getting cut, so that just leaves Washington, Moncrief, Diontae, and what should be a bit over 200 targets. PIT certainly wants to find a WR2 to go along with Juju, instead of just playing WR2 carousel. In the end, maybe it works out that way though. Maybe they start with Washington for the first part of the season, then switch to Moncrief when they get tired of his suckage. Then repeat the process in the second half of the season with the rookie.
Yeah I mean that's unquestionably the safe assumption. But he is literally only 25. Turns 26 in a few weeks. I don't know if the raw age number is a bigger factor than the idea that he has been in the league 5 years, when it comes to saying "this stage" of his career. I'm not disagreeing with you, I have tempered hopes at best that he'll be my WR5 that I can flip as a throw in some bigger deal. Or I'll just drop him at some point and not think twice. I can't really imagine starting him in my lineup. Possibly even if he does solidify the WR2 role for Pitt. But the fact that he is so young and athletic, and *also* experienced, makes me wonder if h3 could emerge more. Even if it just means making Juju even more viable. Ultimately 100 targets feels realistic but a hard ceiling. Dan said 75 75 50 I think that's about right.In regards to if Washington can earn the 2nd most targets for WR I dont know.
I think Moncrief isnt the answer because he didnt do much with Luck. They didnt retain him.
But maybe Mobcrief is good enough? And more importantly better than Washington?
He is certainly more experienced. I just dont see him breaking out at this stage of his career. Maybe Washington or someone else could.
Although, to piggy back off someone above, I could easily see a scenario where one of Washington or Moncrief starts the season off as the WR2 and by midseason the other one emerges more. And I could see it going in either direction. Such a scenario might lead to an end of season 75 75 50 breakdown but week to week it may be the (100 50 50)/16 variety. Which would be fantasy relevant. And if the Pitt offense can be competitive, TDs may be higher. IDK. I got Moncrief in like the 5th or 6th round of my rookie/FA draft in May. I moved Washington earlier for 2.06 if I recall correctly. Took JJAW. Who I still think is criminally undervalued but different thread.Yeah I mean that's unquestionably the safe assumption. But he is literally only 25. Turns 26 in a few weeks. I don't know if the raw age number is a bigger factor than the idea that he has been in the league 5 years, when it comes to saying "this stage" of his career. I'm not disagreeing with you, I have tempered hopes at best that he'll be my WR5 that I can flip as a throw in some bigger deal. Or I'll just drop him at some point and not think twice. I can't really imagine starting him in my lineup. Possibly even if he does solidify the WR2 role for Pitt. But the fact that he is so young and athletic, and *also* experienced, makes me wonder if h3 could emerge more. Even if it just means making Juju even more viable. Ultimately 100 targets feels realistic but a hard ceiling. Dan said 75 75 50 I think that's about right.
And that speaks volumes considering before the draft and FA they nothing much behind Hilton.In regards to if Washington can earn the 2nd most targets for WR I dont know.
I think Moncrief isnt the answer because he didnt do much with Luck. They didnt retain him.
But maybe Mobcrief is good enough? And more importantly better than Washington?
He is certainly more experienced. I just dont see him breaking out at this stage of his career. Maybe Washington or someone else could.
Anything is possible.Yeah I mean that's unquestionably the safe assumption. But he is literally only 25. Turns 26 in a few weeks. I don't know if the raw age number is a bigger factor than the idea that he has been in the league 5 years, when it comes to saying "this stage" of his career. I'm not disagreeing with you, I have tempered hopes at best that he'll be my WR5 that I can flip as a throw in some bigger deal. Or I'll just drop him at some point and not think twice. I can't really imagine starting him in my lineup. Possibly even if he does solidify the WR2 role for Pitt. But the fact that he is so young and athletic, and *also* experienced, makes me wonder if h3 could emerge more. Even if it just means making Juju even more viable. Ultimately 100 targets feels realistic but a hard ceiling. Dan said 75 75 50 I think that's about right.
For sure. Last time he played a whole season with a team not QBd by Bortles, he had 100 targets. But that was a lifetime ago and to your point he has really never flashed. Couldn't get 100 targets with the Jags but those targets were poor quality for sure.Anything is possible.
I very much doubt that the Colts would have let Moncrief walk if they had any hope of him becoming better than he was for them. Its not like they don't need WR themselves.
FWIW WR careers tend to peak at age 26-28 so sure Moncrief is in there. The problem is that his peak so far has been 64 receptions 733 yards and 6 TD. Hes been pretty thoroughly mediocre.
Maybe that is all the Steelers need out of their WR two though?
FWIW I did like Moncrief more as a college prospect than Washington. I just have seen Moncrief not live up to some of my former optimism about him, which admittedly has always been a bit tepid.
After doing the math, I have to agree. I said above Washington has a shot at 120 targets, but that would require quite a bit of separation between himself and the remaining WR's. Vance, on the other hand, is 100% sure to be the only real option at TE, and I have just about all of the nearly 100 targets going his way.I also think Vance McDonald has a better chance than either Washington or Moncrief to break out (in a TE relevant sense) this year. He is the one I am more interested in.
70/700/7 would be like what a low end WR2 in TE premium? 217 pts in FFPC/FBG. That can flip a middle of the road team to a solid contender. Would have been WR20 or TE6 last year.After doing the math, I have to agree. I said above Washington has a shot at 120 targets, but that would require quite a bit of separation between himself and the remaining WR's. Vance, on the other hand, is 100% sure to be the only real option at TE, and I have just about all of the nearly 100 targets going his way.
Here is where I have to disagree. I think Vance's stats are gonna be what they are, no matter how the WR's after Juju play out. He's gonna get his targets regardless. He may even get a few more if it's a complete suckfest at WR2.70/700/7 would be like what a low end WR2 in TE premium? 217 pts in FFPC/FBG. That can flip a middle of the road team to a solid contender. Would have been WR20 or TE6 last year.
If Washington takes a 2nd year leap, though, I'm not sure McDonald gets there. But right now I'm betting against it.
Yeah I mean I can buy that. I'm just envisioning if JW takes a big leap. But there *are* a ton of targets there.Here is where I have to disagree. I think Vance's stats are gonna be what they are, no matter how the WR's after Juju play out. He's gonna get his targets regardless. He may even get a few more if it's a complete suckfest at WR2.
He and Jaylen Samuels seem like the answer to me. I've never been a fan of Washington. I use to believe in Moncrief, but that ship seems to have sailed as a true #2 as well. That leaves Vance, who has stepped up in the past, and Samuels who is looking like a key offensive piece.I also think Vance McDonald has a better chance than either Washington or Moncrief to break out (in a TE relevant sense) this year. He is the one I am more interested in.
I’m more inclined to think Moncrief has a better shot at receiving a decent number of targets than Washington. Not interested in either but 14th-16th round you’re looking for guys with upside. Volume of the offense alone makes it a possibility, however remote: Regardless, most likely outcome is you end up dropping him early for a WW darling.He and Jaylen Samuels seem like the answer to me. I've never been a fan of Washington. I use to believe in Moncrief, but that ship seems to have sailed as a true #2 as well. That leaves Vance, who has stepped up in the past, and Samuels who is looking like a key offensive piece.I also think Vance McDonald has a better chance than either Washington or Moncrief to break out (in a TE relevant sense) this year. He is the one I am more interested in.
NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters
James Washington has heard all the reports about Donte Moncrief leading the WR2 battle. He looks good. Up to 4 catches, 84 yards, and a TD in the first half. #Steelers
James Washington corralled four catches for 84 yards and a touchdown on five targets in Friday night’s preseason opener against the Buccaneers.
Washington was all over the field Friday night, coming down with a 43-yard deep bomb from Josh Dobbs on the Steelers’ first play from scrimmage before closing out the first half with an eight-yard touchdown on a slick back-shoulder throw from Mason Rudolph. He nearly pulled in a second touchdown in the back of the end zone, but couldn’t keep both of his feet in bounds. Washington didn’t show much as a rookie (16-217-1 receiving line on 38 targets) but he should fare better now that Antonio Brown is out of the picture. For the moment, he seems to have a leg up on Diontae Johnson for the No. 3 role behind presumed starters JuJu Smith-Schuster and Donte Moncrief.
Aug 9, 2019, 11:12 PM ET