Amused to Death
Footballguy
We haven't drafted yet and I was eying him at 1.10. But the lone Jets fan in my league just made a series of trades and ended up with 3 first rounders, all before me. No chance for me now.
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WR Elijah Moore, CLE (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's probably good for you. If he drafts Moore it pushes a sexy name down to you and if he goes off the rails and drafts 2 or even 3 then you just got a top 7 pick as a gift.
pghrob
Hail to the Chief
My thoughts exactly.
Edited to add quarterbacks and lower ranked running backs went a little early in this draft and when he kept falling I had to go for it.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Left practice with trainer, being evaluated for quad injury
TripItUp
Footballguy
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Parker and Julio Jones say hi.
From a study of 2007 to 2015 NFL data, the opposite may be true for many positions, especially WR:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/weight-and-injuries
TripItUp
Footballguy
I've seen this and it's a terribly flawed analysis...there is a reason why several analysts were concerned with Devonta Smith, and I'm not talking about guys on messageboards or fantasy websites. Colin Cowherd referenced those experts recently. During the draft the TV analysts mentioned size etc.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Deconta Smith is a 6th percentile BMI, an extreme outlier for a WR. I don't think Elijah Moore or Waddle are even close to that. That's why Smith fell relative to his college performance. I wouldn't worry about Moore or Waddle being more injury prone than Bateman.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
And those reasons were?
For as long as I have been paying attention to football people have been correlating size with durability with no evidence to back that up. The coaches do it a ton. Doesn't mean its right.
TripItUp
Footballguy
How many 170 lb Wide Receivers were in the Pro Bowl last year? I haven't looked, but I'm guessing not many.
Even Tyreek, who is a freak of nature, weights 185.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
There are many non sequiturs in your statement.
Making the pro bowl does not say anything about a players durability.
170 lbs is light for any NFL player. Elijah Moore official metrics were 178 lbs and by now I think most of us know that players gain and lose weight after they enter the NFL.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
But it does speak to ceiling. Let's go back 5 years and add up all of the 170 lb receivers that made the pro bowl.
I don't think the results will be kind to 170 lb receivers.
Pick any other objective metric you want. 170 lbs is not an advantage in the NFL.
FTR, I like Elijah and will draft him at his ADP, but his weight is a concern no matter how you slice it.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Smaller players are more likely to strain their quads? That doesn't seem to make sense.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
I'll make this more specific. Receivers that weigh less than 180 appear to be less likely to be top fantasy producers, part of that is likely injury risk.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing this.
Some good information here that does contradict the common narratives about bigger is better. For example the RB who were near 230 lbs have been injured more often than RB near 210 lbs.
TripItUp
Footballguy
To take this one step even further, I wonder how many receivers are top fantasy producers at less than 190? We know Tyreek is 180s...but he's obviously an outlier. Maybe Moore and Smith are outliers as well, but it does give one pause...which has been mentioned countless times by real football experts.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Right, I don't think anyone is suggesting it's good to be a 260 pound receiver.
What I am suggesting, is that if you weigh less than 180...you are an outlier if you are a top fantasy producer. outlier meaning it almost never happens.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm not sure about what, though. Any help? Is it about needing depth at WR? Because I certainly thought that. As far as size goes, I'm a BMI guy, not a pure weight guy. I thought Devonta Smith's BMI made him a huge outlier in terms of success. He's already hurt, but I don't know what that means.
I'm still a novice. Never can have too much depth, though. Keeping Crowder certainly seems wise right now. Mims should play a role now, too.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What is this you are referring to?
I missed it but I would like to know what he may have been on to that you are recognizing now.
rockaction
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
The real work they do is about BMI, not pure weight. It's weight in proportion to height.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
A) Rotoworld lists him at 178, which was his combine weight...and 180 is still small/light.
B) I didn't say this injury was about size, what I am implying is that small receivers don't historically become top fantasy producers for many reasons, one of those reasons is likely injury risk.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
When I go through all of the top fantasy WRs in the history of the NFL...very few are less than 180, regardless of height.
TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
I didn't say a quad injury is more of a concern. I implied that injuries in general are more of a concern...not quad injuries specifically.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Meh. I think the BMI correlation is much stronger. I stayed away from DeVonta Smith in all rookie drafts and will continue to, but it's not because of pure weight. It so happens that a typical WR with an appropriate BMI will be over 180, but that's because of the combination of height and weight as performance measures.
I don't have too much of a gripe with what you're saying, it just seems like you'd want the best measurements by the best people.
rockaction
Footballguy
Can we get back to being happy the Jets have depth at WR? Seems like people were talking about Berrios and Mims as if they were afterthoughts who should be nowhere near the club.
The Jets are going to need both given Crowder's injury history and Davis's at times...
Our receivers may look like Mims, Berrios, and Cole at times. And that's a whole lot better than last year, even.
The Jets are going to need both given Crowder's injury history and Davis's at times...
Our receivers may look like Mims, Berrios, and Cole at times. And that's a whole lot better than last year, even.
floods
Footballguy
socrates
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Less quads=less mass to potentially be hurt. Ideally, a player would have no quads at all. Can't hurt them if you don't have them.Smaller quads.
Bald Bull
Footballguy
battlestar
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This can’t be true. He’s small.Faust said:
Bald Bull
Footballguy
Hmmm...I think this conversation has been simplified to a fault. I believe size matters as it relates to skill set. Elijah Moore is a great route runner with separation skills, his size can be a benefit here. Moore is listed at 5'10", 178-180. A few other successful receivers in his size radius:
Antonio Brown: 5'10" 185
Diontae Johnson: 5'10" 183
Steve Smith: 5'9" 195
Greg Jennings: 5'11" 198
Wes Welker: 5'8" 185
Golden Tate: 5'10" 197
Emmanuel Sanders: 5'11" 180
Julian Edelman 5'10" 198
These receivers are known for their route running, quickness, and separation. He can definitely be a success and I don't think the odds are working against him.
Antonio Brown: 5'10" 185
Diontae Johnson: 5'10" 183
Steve Smith: 5'9" 195
Greg Jennings: 5'11" 198
Wes Welker: 5'8" 185
Golden Tate: 5'10" 197
Emmanuel Sanders: 5'11" 180
Julian Edelman 5'10" 198
These receivers are known for their route running, quickness, and separation. He can definitely be a success and I don't think the odds are working against him.
