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WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
TampaMike19
Footballguy
His season stats gotta be close to ajb which seems insane
The Frankman
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
AJ Brown is the straw that stirs the drink in Philly regardless of fantasy stats. There's your alpha receiver. That's probably why this thread is so quiet and thinly populated by the commentariat.
Get it? Quiet and thin?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Slim Reaper, Skinny Batman...wait are we sure he isn't the straw?
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
It reminds of of the DFS nightmare of figuring out last year if it was going to be a Chase week or a Higgins week. 3 weeks ago AJB was pitching a fit, now he's getting all the glory.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Tough matchup for him this week if he draws Witherspoon. Goedert could gain in targets and Brown will get his usual. Hope for some spike plays because I can't bench this guy yet.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Has Witherspoon been that good this year?
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Feel like most guys in their 1st positional tiers, even high 2nd tier don't get much discussion (short of a stud suprise rookie like Nacua).
They're largely reliable week to week....what's to discuss?
They're largely reliable week to week....what's to discuss?
He's never going to come close to his fantasy potential in this offense, at least not with Hurts and him feeding his buddy who will blow up if he's not fed.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Like where to draft him for redraft? Do you prefer him to Higgins or Waddle? Just seems weird for pretty much total radio silence for months and months.
I love the guy but if you really look at his production last year with and without Hurts, with and without Goedert, it was really not that great. More low end WR2 kind of stuff.
Getting past where he ranks among other WR's I think in this offense with everyone healthy he's like a 13-14'ish PPG kind of guy. Solid, not a difference maker, not even a must start depending on your options and I hate it because he's capable of so much more.
I like him so much more in dynasty then redraft on the hope one day he finds himself in more of a feature role.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
He's been ok enough to be a potential problem for Smith tomorrow
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Well considering it seems Dallas Goedert has retired, it might help Smith get a boost this year lol.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Good call
Fat Nick
Footballguy
...I have both Waddle and Smith in one league...So much potential, but none of it is manifesting the way I expected...
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Last 3 games
6.8 at Tampa Bay
14.8 vs WASH...AJB 9/175/@TDs
1.6 at L.A. Rams...Goedert 8/117/TD at Tight End
Entered #12 overall at WR-PPR entering this weekend
I would argue his total over the last 3 weeks/games are more like...is that even Top 50?
6.8 at Tampa Bay
14.8 vs WASH...AJB 9/175/@TDs
1.6 at L.A. Rams...Goedert 8/117/TD at Tight End
Entered #12 overall at WR-PPR entering this weekend
I would argue his total over the last 3 weeks/games are more like...is that even Top 50?
He's WR30 now in PPG and that's fairly close to what I think he is so long as AJB/Goedert and Hurts are all healthy. It's fairly close to what he was last year when they were all healthy.
Start him with confidence in week 6 though. Unless he's shadowed by Sauce, which I don't think would be the case, they are going to go to him early and often.
Start him with confidence in week 6 though. Unless he's shadowed by Sauce, which I don't think would be the case, they are going to go to him early and often.
Eagles offense is varied and will likely be variant every week (just like SF) some weeks Smith will be left out, some weeks Goedert will be, some weeks even Brown will be.
If Smith is being treated like he's suddenly a WR3, I'm buying low. It just hasn't been his turn these last couple weeks. He's proven he's a very good WR in a good offense.
If Smith is being treated like he's suddenly a WR3, I'm buying low. It just hasn't been his turn these last couple weeks. He's proven he's a very good WR in a good offense.
I can't really get behind how you are painting this picture. AJB has out targed Devonta every game this year and has led the team in targets every week but this last one. Sure a game or or two we'll probably see Devonta actually get more work then AJB, and I'll even predict it this week, but AJB does not really belong in this variance discussion. He eats every week and unlike the other two I don't think he'll have it any other way.
There is no suddenly to it. It's what he's been when everyone is healthy. This year and last.
AJ is certainly less prone to variance, but he does still fall victim to it, more than other top flight WRs like Jefferson or Diggs, and that's because of this offense.
Smith has 93-1241-8 in his last 17 games. Yes, he did peak when Goedert was out last year, but even this year, he was outproducing AJ until 2 weeks ago.
Obviously, I prefer AJ, as everyone should, but I think we are seeing the ceiling of AJ and the floor of Smith lately. Smith has either 50 yards or a TD in 14 of his last 17 games, unfortunately 2 of those games have come in the last 3 weeks.
Like I said, when everyone is healthy and that everyone includes Hurts. Those numbers later year with Devonta got bumped not just by Goedert missing time but also because Hurts got injured.
Goedert got injured at end of week 10 last year. Through those first 10 weeks(9 games) Devonta Smith was WR35 with production really close to what he's doing right now.
Not having Goedert led to a bump, his production increased a little and he went from WR35 but he still entered week 16 last year as WR25. Then Hurts got injured and he had his most and tied for second most targeted games of the year and rose up to a WR14 finish.
He's had 14 full games with AJB, Goedert and Hurts all healthy.He's at 69/771/5 which prorates to 84/936/6 and he's putting up 12.57 fantasy points which is a WR3. Again this is not suddenly , we are 3 games shy of a full season of data.
He's a really talented WR3, has been and will remain so over course of a season until/unless someone gets hurt and opens up more targets for him. It is what it is.
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I could argue he is worse off this year. Last season the top RB on the Eagles in targets was Gainwell who had 26 on the season. Swift already has 17. The emergence of Swift as a receiving threat in this offense is taking even more targets away from Smith.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Also given his size, it might actually be Smith who gets hurt.
I've watched a lot of Eagles games - seems like once or twice a game dude gets up slowly/gingerly after a hit. 6' 170 isn't exactly stout. Hard to predict injuries, but it's a less than zero chance that one of these times he doesn't bounce right back up.
He of course get could hurt, and it might be a situation where his lack of usage helps his health.
But despite not getting up as quickly as you might like he's played and as far as I can recall finished all 43 of his career NFL games.
Same thing in college. I'm not sure entirely sure if his freshman season in 2017 if did not play in 2 games due to injury or not earning playing time. I can't recall but I know for sure he was available for the next 39 straight games and is currently sitting on a consecutive games played streak of 90 counting college/NFL. He had to leave the national championship game early over a finger but I think he's finished the other games, so no Tee Higgins syndrome.
Granted some of those games in college he was not a full time player and like I said maybe not being a target monster in the NFL is assisting him but with the concession anyone can get hurt the notion his size makes him more prone seems like a fallacy as he's been literally as durable as it gets.
Possible. But Jets are just tough vs all receivers. They are very weak vs TE's though. Expect another Goedert game and don't sleep on how many targets Swift is getting. The Jets are also vulnerable to RB receiving threats. Swift is a big threat to Smith's target share right now. Like I mentioned earlier, No Eagles RB had more than 26 targets last season. If he stays healthy Swift is going to get 50-60
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m just saying what I’ve seen. He seems to get dinged up.
As time goes on, those hits can add up.
I don’t think it’s a fallacy at all - I didn’t say he’s absolutely going to get hurt. It’s just something I’m concerned about.
We have a pretty large sample size from NFL players, but yes, you’re correct that so far he’s been able to stay healthy.
Agree and said so upthread but not because of Sauce and in fact he could mess up the plans. More so because how I've noticed the trend with the Eagles of going out of their way to get one of their top pass catchers involved when they've not seen the ball the last few weeks. I would take him this week over AJB straight up. It's hi
I don’t know how you can say it’s not a fallacy when he’s never missed a game nor have I ever seen credible evidence size at receiver is a precusor to injuries.
I think you are taking some major leaps because you don’t think he gets up fast enough.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
He's now in the "start with no confidence" category. Fingers crossed he somehow has a peak game this weekend.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
AJB is actually the one I’d worry about. He’s been healthy as an Eagle but health was kinda dicey as a Titan. He fights for yards, plays much more physical…those are the things that lead to injuries.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
A fallacy would be saying “he’s going to get hurt because he’s undersized.”
I make no such definitive claim.
I merely expressed an opinion that due to his size, he may be at greater risk.
There’s a difference.
I’m not making any leap - again, it’s an observation. It seems like it’s pretty frequent that he gets up gimpy, or is slow to get up after contact. That’s just a factual statement based on observable events.
There’s zero leap there. Just a concern that as those hits pile up, he may not be as resilient.
You calling that a fallacy is a fallacy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Possible.
That said he had 1 injury laden season in 2021, and everyone seems to believe he’s injury prone because of it.
Seems bogus to me. He had a knee bruise in 2020, then in 2021 he had a grade 1 knee strain (twice) and a hammy pull. He also had a calf strain in week 17 of 2021.
None of them were significant injuries, nor would they lead me to believe he’s any greater injury risk than any other player.
And at 6’1, 227 he certainly seems built better to absorb those NFL level hits than Smith’s 6’ 170 frame.
renesauz
IBL Representative
Fantasy wise he's a WR3 when they're all healthy, and has been since the arrival of AJB. Solid WR2 if AJ or Goedert are missing, but with above normal WR2 potential of a blow up game. Nothing wrong with that.
As an owner, a little frustrating but a good asset none the less. As an Eagles fan...ecstatic to have this kind of talent around
As an owner, a little frustrating but a good asset none the less. As an Eagles fan...ecstatic to have this kind of talent around
It's truly not close between the injury history of AJB and Goedert vs Devonta.....guess they just get up faster.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
What I said isn’t possible, it’s fact. AJB has had two years interrupted by injury. DeVonta hasn’t had any issues yet. AJB is a violent player, DeVonta seems to know he’s light and tries to protect himself.
Both play in the NFL and can get hurt at anytime. I wouldn’t call Brown injury prone, but it is certainly in the back of my mind that he’s had knee trouble and missed time, and also pushed through the same injury to suit up and played several of those games rather ineffectively. At the time I was dinging him in dynasty but he’s been sturdy for long enough at this point to remove that worry.
I don’t ding either guy for it but it doesn’t make any sense to worry about the one without an injury history over the one that actually has one.
We are learning small WRs aren’t a problem and that we need to lower the weight RBs need to hit as a minimum to be effective. At the same time, we are learning that very small QBs are maybe quite problematic (Bryce).
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Yep. As for DeVonta, I’m capitulating on him in dynasty and admittedly did not connect his stat spike to correlation with Minshew. Wish I had seen your posts on that sooner, would not have taken him at 3.08 in one of my startups if I had.
He’s easily good enough to be an alpha that you can funnel an offense through in my book, if only he didn’t have another one lined up next to him.
That said, it doesn’t suck to have him, he will have his big weeks but unfortunately slumps as well in this current situation.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t think we have a large enough sample size to make that statement about either position.
Didn’t Achane just hit the IR after basically 3 games? And isn’t Gibbs currently hurt after a pretty modest workload?
Those were literally the 2 undersized RB people were worried about.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Actually it does make sense to be more concerned about the dude who’s 6’ 170 than the dude who’s 6’1, 227, given that Brown hasn’t had any recurring issues off of the 2 minor (grade 1) knee strains in 2021 and a knee bruise in 2020.
since AJB’s past injuries are clearly no longer relevant, it makes sense to not be particularly concerned since he has prototypical size/weight.
Similarly it’s entirely logical to be concerned about the player who lacks prototypical size/weight at 6’ 170.
Again - I’m not making any sort of definitive statement that Smith *is* going to get hurt. But he’s not a big dude. It’s not a slight on Smith to point that out. I actually really like the player. He’s a heck of a receiver. But his size is concerning.
I find the statement that he “knows he’s light and protects himself” to be a bit fanciful. That’s all well & good until he’s blindsided by a safety. When he is hit, he has limped off several times that I’ve seen. He does seem to bounce back pretty quickly.
that all said, he’s been healthy to date, so credit where due, but this is football, and the hits do add up. I’m interested to see how his career plays out. I hope you’re right, as I never like seeing players get hurt.
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Drake Hater
Footballguy
This week's metrics at Fantasy Points show strong probability of DeVonta matching up against Sauce. Not giving me good vibes.
Looking at Jets box stats from the last few games show stronger outings to TEs and RBs as pass catchers against that defense. More bad vibes.
Looking at Jets box stats from the last few games show stronger outings to TEs and RBs as pass catchers against that defense. More bad vibes.
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
Would you trade Devonta + pick 3 for DK Metcalf ?
