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WR A.J. Brown, PHI (1 Viewer)

Vandelay said:
Whats more likely...the team with fewest attempts in the league passes more, or less?
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I don’t know but if we are going to speculate that the defense is suddenly worse or Henry is going to get hurt we can also speculate that the defense is outstanding and Tannehill could get hurt

 
Cobbler1 said:
Studs get targets. Give me some alpha wr1s who languished as low end fantasy wr2s for their careers because they didn’t get enough targets. 
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I think the argument would go... is Brown a "stud"/"alpha" or did he have a handful of astonishing games based on a yards/reception that will be difficult or next to impossible to recreate?

Brown averaged just over 5 targets/game last year. He was higher than 5 targets in just 5 games last year. He made up for that by averaging 30+yards/reception in 5 games last year. I will never be one of those guys that goes, "Well if you take out his best <X> # of plays..... " because I think that unfairly negates his home-run ability BUT you have to admit that it's difficult to imagine he'll have 30+yards/reception for nearly a full third of the season again this year. It kind of reminds me of the year Chris Johnson had all those long TD's at RB in 2009. It's just hard to reproduce from year to year even if Johnson was still a HR threat RB after that. He never came CLOSE to that 2009 season where he averaged 5.6yards/rush, or more than a full yard above his career yards/rush. The only other guy in the NFL that averaged over 20yards/reception in 2019 was Mike Williams(LAC) and I'd be selling him as well.

Between Brown having a shocking level of efficiency and Tannehill having a much higher level of efficiency than he's ever had in his career it's going to take a LOT more attempts than last year to come close to that same level of production. Maybe TEN will be forced to throw the ball a lot more but if that's the case and Tanny/Brown regress only a little they will also be punting more. Maybe I'm just more bearish on the Titans than most all around. The only guy I would touch with a ten foot pole in fantasy would be Humphries(and yes, I do agree they will be passing more often). Maybe Jonnu Smith if he really slips and I was desperate at TE.

 
King of the Jungle said:
You can say what you want about Corey Davis, but a rookie came in last year and showed the league more in a season than we have seen in Corey’s career. AJ is an alpha dog, Corey is a solid contributor who has moments. Davis also is a good run blocker which makes him useful. He just doesn’t have the top dog mentality. Poster “Bri” who makes a lot of great noise about the Titans has always pointed out CD has issues with his route running. I think he termed it “patty-caking” in his route instead of taking to the defender. You would think if he was going to change something it would have happened by now. AJ joins the team and throws up a 100 yards game one with Mariota....then continues an incredible highlight reel season showing many elite qualities you drool over as a dynasty holder. Yes, hopefully the volume goes up. Either way, water finds it’s level at some point. You have to score points to win in the NFL and eventually someone will realize getting the ball in AJ’s hands is a good way to score points.
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I don't think the impetus for discussions about A.J.'s volume had anything to do with Corey Davis, other than he was an example of a guy in a bad situation that might have stayed there and ruined himself as an alpha. I'm aware of Bri's issues with Davis. Bri brings good content to threads, and I always read his stuff. I think you're confusing bringing up Davis as implicating future volume of A.J., which we weren't. We were spitballing about a different topic entirely.

That said, Davis will have something to do with A.J.'s volume, we just don't know what. 

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
I don’t know but if we are going to speculate that the defense is suddenly worse or Henry is going to get hurt we can also speculate that the defense is outstanding and Tannehill could get hurt
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Except I didn't speculate on any of those things.  There were several posts pinning Browns stats to whether Tannehill could be as good as he was last year.  Im offering a counter opinion to that specific thought.

 
All Vandelay essentially said is he hopes Tannehill gets some garbage yards and garbage scores leadi g Brown to higher targets, catches, scores.

Yes, he said through inefficient qb play.

For me....i dig when my qb is down 21 to 10 and hoping for some more passing yards.    Don't care if it's bc of fumbles by a rb, a pick six, or special teams tds.

Carry on for 2 more pages

 
rockaction said:
I don't think the impetus for discussions about A.J.'s volume had anything to do with Corey Davis, other than he was an example of a guy in a bad situation that might have stayed there and ruined himself as an alpha. I'm aware of Bri's issues with Davis. Bri brings good content to threads, and I always read his stuff. I think you're confusing bringing up Davis as implicating future volume of A.J., which we weren't. We were spitballing about a different topic entirely.

That said, Davis will have something to do with A.J.'s volume, we just don't know what. 
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I must of misunderstood, sorry to not add anything useful then. I do think AJ had a pretty low snap count the first half of season and that will raise accordingly closer to his second half which should create some more opportunities overall over the course of the season. It is tough to consistently win with the “run ball/play good defense” mentality in the NFL today. This is a team that drafted AJ in the second round and locked Humphries into a pretty big contract last year (while having former 1st rounder CD already there). I think this was a team trying to boost the passing game. Some will disagree but I thought Mariota was HORRIBLE during the beginning of the season and greatly restricted what they could do through the air which caused them to rely on the run even more. Well they made the QB change and Tanny being new in the system, I am sure they kept things baseline. With an offseason (hopefully) to work with I would expect to see a little more air time in the offense to get some use out of the investment (Humphries) and the prodigy (AJ). 

 
domvin said:
All Vandelay essentially said is he hopes Tannehill gets some garbage yards and garbage scores leadi g Brown to higher targets, catches, scores.

Yes, he said through inefficient qb play.

For me....i dig when my qb is down 21 to 10 and hoping for some more passing yards.    Don't care if it's bc of fumbles by a rb, a pick six, or special teams tds.

Carry on for 2 more pages
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I actually saw him saying we should hope Tannehill plays poorly... but sure we can call that garbage time 

 
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BoltBacker said:
I think the argument would go... is Brown a "stud"/"alpha" or did he have a handful of astonishing games based on a yards/reception that will be difficult or next to impossible to recreate?

Brown averaged just over 5 targets/game last year. He was higher than 5 targets in just 5 games last year. He made up for that by averaging 30+yards/reception in 5 games last year. I will never be one of those guys that goes, "Well if you take out his best <X> # of plays..... " because I think that unfairly negates his home-run ability BUT you have to admit that it's difficult to imagine he'll have 30+yards/reception for nearly a full third of the season again this year. It kind of reminds me of the year Chris Johnson had all those long TD's at RB in 2009. It's just hard to reproduce from year to year even if Johnson was still a HR threat RB after that. He never came CLOSE to that 2009 season where he averaged 5.6yards/rush, or more than a full yard above his career yards/rush. The only other guy in the NFL that averaged over 20yards/reception in 2019 was Mike Williams(LAC) and I'd be selling him as well.

Between Brown having a shocking level of efficiency and Tannehill having a much higher level of efficiency than he's ever had in his career it's going to take a LOT more attempts than last year to come close to that same level of production. Maybe TEN will be forced to throw the ball a lot more but if that's the case and Tanny/Brown regress only a little they will also be punting more. Maybe I'm just more bearish on the Titans than most all around. The only guy I would touch with a ten foot pole in fantasy would be Humphries(and yes, I do agree they will be passing more often). Maybe Jonnu Smith if he really slips and I was desperate at TE.
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Yes you can debate how good AJB is for sure. My understanding is the prime voice for his value going down thinks he’s really good. Just doesn’t think he will get the necessary volume in the future. Maybe just the short term future, I’m not certain about that. I think if AJB is the big/fast/physical/YAC monster that we saw last year he will get volume. He will lose efficiency too, but I don’t think a stud will get held back by lack of volume. 

 
King of the Jungle said:
I must of misunderstood, sorry to not add anything useful then. I do think AJ had a pretty low snap count the first half of season and that will raise accordingly closer to his second half which should create some more opportunities overall over the course of the season. It is tough to consistently win with the “run ball/play good defense” mentality in the NFL today. This is a team that drafted AJ in the second round and locked Humphries into a pretty big contract last year (while having former 1st rounder CD already there). I think this was a team trying to boost the passing game. Some will disagree but I thought Mariota was HORRIBLE during the beginning of the season and greatly restricted what they could do through the air which caused them to rely on the run even more. Well they made the QB change and Tanny being new in the system, I am sure they kept things baseline. With an offseason (hopefully) to work with I would expect to see a little more air time in the offense to get some use out of the investment (Humphries) and the prodigy (AJ). 
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Don't be sorry, King. I can see how that can easily happen. I agree with you on more points than you might think: Mariota was awful last year. They had to make the change. They drafted A.J. to be an alpha hopefully, and it seems to be working. The thing that would give me pause about volume is something barackdhouse pointed out, and that is how they approached the playoffs with Tannehill. They barely let the man throw. Sure, it worked for a while, but there was no way they were beating KC without a solid QB game and they wouldn't do it. It just puts a damper on A.J.'s season-ending deluge of fantasy points.

 
rockaction said:
Don't be sorry, King. I can see how that can easily happen. I agree with you on more points than you might think: Mariota was awful last year. They had to make the change. They drafted A.J. to be an alpha hopefully, and it seems to be working. The thing that would give me pause about volume is something barackdhouse pointed out, and that is how they approached the playoffs with Tannehill. They barely let the man throw. Sure, it worked for a while, but there was no way they were beating KC without a solid QB game and they wouldn't do it. It just puts a damper on A.J.'s season-ending deluge of fantasy points.
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I understand that thought process for sure. But I think when you haven’t been there sometimes you play not to lose. Teams also have to realize where the league is at and adjust. Now that is not to say everyone will do that, but honestly the AFC is chasing the Chiefs and Ravens (I know the Titans beat Baltimore somehow...but 9/10 they won’t). The Ravens can get away with run heavy because they have Flash at QB. When you don’t have a major threat at QB from a run perspective you just can’t play ground and pound and expect to win today consistently. They will open it up because they have to. And if they don’t a new coach will come in and realize what they have on offense and try to take advantage of it. Windows are short and patience is thin in the NFL. I strictly speak from a dynasty perspective about AJ. He reminds me of a young Anquan Boldin with more speed. Eventually he will be considered one of elite IMO. 

 
King of the Jungle said:
I strictly speak from a dynasty perspective about AJ. He reminds me of a young Anquan Boldin with more speed. Eventually he will be considered one of elite IMO. 
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I understand about the bolded. And your points are noted. Patience wears thin -- and if ground and pound can't get it done, they'll turn to something else either as an organization or in head coaching philosophy. Look at the teams in KC's division. They went and loaded up at the skill positions in the draft so that they might have a prayer of keeping up.

As for the latter point, Anquan is exactly who he reminds me of, and it has been noted along the way. A.J. Brown just looked bigger than his college film would have one believe. 

 
rockaction said:
I understand about the bolded. And your points are noted. Patience wears thin -- and if ground and pound can't get it done, they'll turn to something else either as an organization or in head coaching philosophy. Look at the teams in KC's division. They went and loaded up at the skill positions in the draft so that they might have a prayer of keeping up.

As for the latter point, Anquan is exactly who he reminds me of, and it has been noted along the way. A.J. Brown just looked bigger than his college film would have one believe. 
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Yup would have sworn AJB was 6’2. Boldin played a lot of slot though right? The frame and the physicality is spot on.

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
There’s also scenarios where TEN passes less. As long as we are playing “let’s pretend” we can talk about those too
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FF is about percentages and odds though.  The odds are overwhelmingly in favor of Tennessee's pass attempts increasing.  When a team finishes bottom 3 in the league in pass attempts their pass attempts increase by an average of 90 attempts the following season.  93% of teams that finish in the bottom 3 in the league in pass attempts over the last decade had more attempts the following year.

So yes, it's possible that TEN passes less.  But it is very very likely that they pass more.

ETA: I would be surprised if there were a single team in the last 20 years that finished dead last in pass attempts one year and then threw for fewer pass attempts the following year, but I haven't looked at that specifically yet.

 
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King of the Jungle said:
Zyphros said:
AJB snap share was at 68.48% for the year.  

Julio Jones was 69.52%

DJ Moore 81.76%

Allen Robinson 93.83%

OBJ and Jarvis Landry 95.11% and 93.49%

Amari Cooper 75.38%

Courtland Sutton 91.38%

Kenny Golladay 86.84%

Davante Adams 62.89%

Keenan Allen 87.83%

By comparison for 1st year players in 2019, Metcalf was at 83.59%, McLaurin was 81.28%, Diontae 65.33%, and Deebo was 66.7%.

Sure seems it's very offensive dependent or how crucial they are to their offense.  Julio for example, is a great weapon and other-worldly, but they have other play makers who can carry some load.  OBJ on the other hand likely demands more and is on the field more to help his QB, Matt Ryan doesn't exactly need Julio, I'd wager Baker needs OBJ for help.  Opposite would be true for Lock/Trubisky and Sutton/Robinson.  They are the only weapon so it makes sense they're on the field for 90%+.  

I don't like sifting through data at all, just thought this would help paint a better picture of AJB projection going forward.  Do with it what you will. 
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Do you have a way to compare his first versus second half of season? Seems like that would paint a better picture of what to expect.
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PFR has it by game. AJ Brown was on the field 53% of the offensive snaps for the first 8 games and 84% for the last 8 games (and 91% for the playoffs).

 
ZWK said:
PFR has it by game. AJ Brown was on the field 53% of the offensive snaps for the first 8 games and 84% for the last 8 games (and 91% for the playoffs).
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Awesome, thanks. That certainly displays a more accurate projection of what to expect coming into next season especially for rookies who typically are eased into work.

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
91% in the playoffs... and he did so well
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To each their own, but personally I am not going to judge his talent off two games where they averaged 7.5 completions. I expect them to pass more this coming season, others are free to disagree if they like. He performed incredibly for being just a rookie last year and I expect him to improve as a player as he has elite qualities and appears to have a desire to be great from what I have read.

 
rockaction said:
How can you even change a handle?
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I don't know but it was originally Dr. Brew which looks like an alias for Dr. Dan/BD because neither is showing up in the member list and Dr. Dan/BD is no longer on my ignore list (this alias is) so it looks like there was some kind of ban/delete. 

 
Hankmoody said:
I don't know but it was originally Dr. Brew which looks like an alias for Dr. Dan/BD because neither is showing up in the member list and Dr. Dan/BD is no longer on my ignore list (this alias is) so it looks like there was some kind of ban/delete. 
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Huh. I was going to say it was Dr. Dan/BD that started this. It had a sense of humor in the title. I wonder what the sticking point with him is. I find him to be a fine contributor for the most part and just take any problems at face value. Okay, I won't derail this thread. Peace.

 
I am leaving the forum and trying to remove my posts from here. Since I was told this was not possible I was doing it myself. I didn’t mean to cause so much issue. My apologies. There will be other threads missing- apologies to Faust and others ahead of time. 

 
I'm late to the party, what happened?  I suppose I never paid attention to who was the original poster of this thread.  How does one change the OP author?  Or am I lost in left field on the issue?

 
JohnnyU said:
I'm late to the party, what happened?  I suppose I never paid attention to who was the original poster of this thread.  How does one change the OP author?  Or am I lost in left field on the issue?
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I hid the thread, it was brought back, I didn’t mean to cause issues. If I trusted people to respect my privacy it wouldn’t have been necessary. I apologize for the fallout. I figured someone would just create a new thread and it wouldn’t have been a big issue. Faust does a lot of work and it wasn’t fair of me to hide all of that with hiding the thread. 

 
Interseptopus said:
I hid the thread, it was brought back, I didn’t mean to cause issues. If I trusted people to respect my privacy it wouldn’t have been necessary. I apologize for the fallout. I figured someone would just create a new thread and it wouldn’t have been a big issue. Faust does a lot of work and it wasn’t fair of me to hide all of that with hiding the thread. 
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Why didn't you just hid the posts that were personal to you and have the mods hide those that were quoted, instead of hiding the entire thread?  Also, how does one change the author of the OP?  I didn't think that was possible.

 
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JohnnyU said:
Why didn't you just hid the posts that were personal to you and have the mods hide those that were quoted, instead of hiding the entire thread?  Also, how does one change the author of the OP?  I didn't think that was possible.
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I asked Joe and he said it was not possible. The author didn’t change. The handle did. 

 
Interseptopus said:
I hid the thread, it was brought back, I didn’t mean to cause issues. If I trusted people to respect my privacy it wouldn’t have been necessary. I apologize for the fallout. I figured someone would just create a new thread and it wouldn’t have been a big issue. Faust does a lot of work and it wasn’t fair of me to hide all of that with hiding the thread. 
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Two things.

Why are you changing your name from Dr. Dan to this now?

Do not hide threads once another poster has posted in them. Once someone else posts in a thread, it's the forum's thread. Not yours. 

 
JohnnyU said:
I know you can hide your own posts, so no need to hide all posts.  I suppose I’m missing something here.
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a) it's easier to just hide the thread b) the quote box reveals what you wrote if someone quoted it. So your work still lives even if you don't want it to. Ergo, hide the thread.

Shouldn't do that. One knows what one was getting into when one started commenting publicly.

 
rockaction said:
a) it's easier to just hide the thread b) the quote box reveals what you wrote if someone quoted it. So your work still lives even if you don't want it to. Ergo, hide the thread.

Shouldn't do that. One knows what one was getting into when one started commenting publicly.
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I know that the moderators are good about deleting quotes if personal info is in the quoted post..  

 
Interseptopus said:
Thank you, I’ve cleaned up my inbox and it should be good now. 

I was given some great advice this morning regarding my situation and I plan to still frequent here but not as often. I enjoy this place a lot...
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If you don't mind me asking, what situation? You've been (imo) a good contributor here for a while, usually with a valid and well-thought out viewpoint that evolves with new information--a good trait for a forum poster to possess.

Was your account here connected to your real life by someone in some way off the board, in a way that negatively affected you? Or was it a workplace issue, with your posts being connected to "on the clock" time? I understand if you don't want to share of course. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
If you don't mind me asking, what situation? You've been (imo) a good contributor here for a while, usually with a valid and well-thought out viewpoint that evolves with new information--a good trait for a forum poster to possess.

Was your account here connected to your real life by someone in some way off the board, in a way that negatively affected you? Or was it a workplace issue, with your posts being connected to "on the clock" time? I understand if you don't want to share of course. 
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I’ve gotten a few questions on this, and I know I’ve responded to you privately... since at this point there’s no point keeping things secret I figured I would squash this once and for all.

I’m not sure how this happened since I recently moved my family to Colorado, but somehow someone from here had begun to harass me in my personal/professional life. I thought that by removing posts, changing my handle, and leaving the forum it would make it less easy for someone else. I’m not even sure how this person found me as my personal information is different than my handle/previous handles (my first name starts with a B, not a D)... but I guess some people have too much time on their hands. That’s the last I’ll say of all of this. We can get back to AJB...

 
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Interseptopus said:
I’ve gotten a few questions on this, and I know I’ve responded to you privately... since at this point there’s no point keeping things secret I figured I would squash this once and for all.

I’m not sure how this happened since I recently moved my family to Colorado, but somehow someone from here had begun to harass me in my personal/professional life. I thought that by removing posts, changing my handle, and leaving the forum it would make it less easy for someone else. I’m not even sure how this person found me as my personal information is different than my handle/previous handles... but I guess some people have too much time on their hands. That’s the last I’ll say of all of this. We can get back to AJB...
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I would contact the authorities on them.  There are laws against that type of behavior.

 
Interseptopus said:
I’ve gotten a few questions on this, and I know I’ve responded to you privately... since at this point there’s no point keeping things secret I figured I would squash this once and for all.

I’m not sure how this happened since I recently moved my family to Colorado, but somehow someone from here had begun to harass me in my personal/professional life. I thought that by removing posts, changing my handle, and leaving the forum it would make it less easy for someone else. I’m not even sure how this person found me as my personal information is different than my handle/previous handles (my first name starts with a B, not a D)... but I guess some people have too much time on their hands. That’s the last I’ll say of all of this. We can get back to AJB...
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Wow.  That's really not OK.  Sorry to hear you're dealing with that.  I really hope it all resolves quickly and safely for you.

On a brighter note, welcome to Colorado!  I move here from Wisconsin about 25 years ago and, unless I get the opportunity to live in Hawaii, I'm never leaving.

 
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