What would you be willing to sacrifice to get back to normal? The next Lockdown Phase (1 Viewer)

[Quint]

One question, why are you knocking out my poor Phins in your avatar?

no malice intended...i've got Tua in Dynasty. 

 

[The Commish]

With you on the quarantine, never heard a word about it or the story of the family who traveled from New York and were forced into a make shift motel for 2 weeks, that never happened for sure. 

I know in Central Florida, they got a lot of people out of work from the tourism/Disney fallout that have filled up those pink and purple motels miles out leading into Kissimmee and such. 

Oh...there's a ton of people out of work, but it's not because the state is shut down.  It's because the companies are doing the correct thing regardless of what the state is saying.  Disney, for example, can open back up if they want, but they aren't hitting capacity for their parks even set at 30ish % capacity, so why would they open all the way when people aren't coming out?  This is the problem with things that are confidence driven.  The state can say whatever it wants but it doesn't matter if people don't feel safe or don't feel they can trust what's coming out of the mouths of the politicians.  It's putting businesses in a really ####ty situation.  

 

[Mile High]

This is the problem with things that are confidence driven.  The state can say whatever it wants but it doesn't matter if people don't feel safe or don't feel they can trust what's coming out of the mouths of the politicians.  It's putting businesses in a really ####ty situation.  

Exactly. 

 

[Gr00vus]

If we really wanted to have broader reopening, until a vaccine is widely distributed, I think we'd need to practice a stringent large scale test/trace/quarantine methodology. That way we could be less shutdown by performing targeted quarantines on those with the virus. It would take individual cooperation and sacrifice - particularly self reporting, willingness to trace/be traced and self quarantining. I think past generations of U.S. citizens could have pulled this off. I don't think this one can. We've become a very childish, self focused nation, I don't think enough people would do what it would take to make it work.

 

[Courtjester]

The problem with any shutdown is it needs to be followed by a workable plan. You shutdown--great--the transmission rate goes way down, but then the minute it is lifted, people party like it is 1999 and there the rate goes skyrocketing up again. So what was the point of the shutdown at this point? 

We had the rate way down here in Colorado. This is a fiercely mask wearing area. I mean you just don't see people without them in public places, but our numbers are spiraling out of control right now because people are getting together and partying. I hear all kinds of people saying they are going to have Thanksgiving like normal this year. My sister is having 12 people over and they invited my 85 year old mother (who told them heck no). People say, "Well I am not going to mess up my Thanksgiving!!!" Why the heck not? It is one stupid holiday that you can celebrate next year with everyone, mask free if we just play this thing right.

My plan: there needs to be a stimulus plan with a couple months payments to individuals. One check just gets some people to the surface. People need to live without fear of being evicted. I agree with the two to three range to encourage people to stay home. We need payments to business owners to survive this shut down. All restaurants go back to take out only. Sorry bars--you have to close unless you are a bar that serves food as well. Real tight restrictions on super markets. No one allowed in the stores--you place your order. It is brought out to you car-side. All the people that are normally running registers are now filling orders. The latest stats show that upwards of 20% of supermarket workers have had Covid--this is a huge transmission point that needs to be closed.  No attendance at sporting events--it is on tv. Sorry public safety trumps your right to attend games. I know they don't want to do it, but for the movie industry to survive, you may need to start releasing those new release blockbusters you have been pushing back on PPV--charge $29.99 or whatever you want, but movie theaters can't be open now. Drive in's---maybe?? The plus side of this is people stay home more too. Liquor stores/dispensaries/cig stores stay open with strict occupation ordinances. You get caught violating this, you lose your license. These stay open because you just can't throw a full on addict withdrawal epidemic on top of every thing else. Any other retail service is just car-side--prescriptions, auto parts, take out food, etc.

This is going to have a hefty price tag that may need to be paid for by a small tax increase/reduction of spending in some areas. However, it needs to happen so we can get out from under this cloud sooner rather than later. We take our lumps, get a workable vaccine and then come out of this stronger than ever within a year.

Now I need a beer. 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

If we really wanted to have broader reopening, until a vaccine is widely distributed, I think we'd need to practice a stringent large scale test/trace/quarantine methodology. That way we could be less shutdown by performing targeted quarantines on those with the virus. It would take individual cooperation and sacrifice - particularly self reporting, willingness to trace/be traced and self quarantining. I think past generations of U.S. citizens could have pulled this off. I don't think this one can. We've become a very childish, self focused nation, I don't think enough people would do what it would take to make it work.

China has an app that does this.  Unfortunately, they (of course) also share data from the app with the police.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china-coronavirus-surveillance.amp.html
 

Why can’t we do a version of this that doesn’t involve sharing info with the police?  Wouldn’t you want to know if you’ve been in contact with someone who is COVID+?   Wouldn’t you feel more comfortable going places that require a “code” to get in, knowing that other people were likely “safe” too?

I recognize what fears people have about this.  But this type of solution is what it will take until we have a vaccine, IF we still want to live our lives.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The problem with any shutdown is it needs to be followed by a workable plan. You shutdown--great--the transmission rate goes way down, but then the minute it is lifted, people party like it is 1999 and there the rate goes skyrocketing up again. So what was the point of the shutdown at this point? 

We had the rate way down here in Colorado. This is a fiercely mask wearing area. I mean you just don't see people without them in public places, but our numbers are spiraling out of control right now because people are getting together and partying. I hear all kinds of people saying they are going to have Thanksgiving like normal this year. My sister is having 12 people over and they invited my 85 year old mother (who told them heck no). People say, "Well I am not going to mess up my Thanksgiving!!!" Why the heck not? It is one stupid holiday that you can celebrate next year with everyone, mask free if we just play this thing right.

My plan: there needs to be a stimulus plan with a couple months payments to individuals. One check just gets some people to the surface. People need to live without fear of being evicted. I agree with the two to three range to encourage people to stay home. We need payments to business owners to survive this shut down. All restaurants go back to take out only. Sorry bars--you have to close unless you are a bar that serves food as well. Real tight restrictions on super markets. No one allowed in the stores--you place your order. It is brought out to you car-side. All the people that are normally running registers are now filling orders. The latest stats show that upwards of 20% of supermarket workers have had Covid--this is a huge transmission point that needs to be closed.  No attendance at sporting events--it is on tv. Sorry public safety trumps your right to attend games. I know they don't want to do it, but for the movie industry to survive, you may need to start releasing those new release blockbusters you have been pushing back on PPV--charge $29.99 or whatever you want, but movie theaters can't be open now. Drive in's---maybe?? The plus side of this is people stay home more too. Liquor stores/dispensaries/cig stores stay open with strict occupation ordinances. You get caught violating this, you lose your license. These stay open because you just can't throw a full on addict withdrawal epidemic on top of every thing else. Any other retail service is just car-side--prescriptions, auto parts, take out food, etc.

This is going to have a hefty price tag that may need to be paid for by a small tax increase/reduction of spending in some areas. However, it needs to happen so we can get out from under this cloud sooner rather than later. We take our lumps, get a workable vaccine and then come out of this stronger than ever within a year.

Now I need a beer. 

Hey, thanks for sharing this, really appreciate it. 

I got talked into going out last night for a drink and what I saw made me want to vacate quickly. This was not a restaurant/Bar type thing, this was a Scotch and Cigar Lounge and there is outside seating but it was packed inside the building. PACKED!!! Since I was there I figured I had to look around at some of the adjacent hot spots and it was similar. SO I guess that's like the partying and get togethers you are talking about. I left after a few minutes, nobody was in a mask and I mean nobody except the bathroom attendant and maybe the door guy. 

I wish I had some answers, I thought we were gonna lock down for a month and figured that was going to be a popular POV, it wasn't!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Biden trusted advisor already talking about a 4-6 week Shutdown. 

Again how extreme? Airports? NFL/NBA? 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Biden trusted advisor already talking about a 4-6 week Shutdown. 

Again how extreme? Airports? NFL/NBA? 

Need a government-issued ankle bracelet tracker to leave the house.

 

[Football Jones]

Are we talking about a federal mandate or left up to states?

How quickly can the vaccine come into play?

 

[Quint]

Biden trusted advisor already talking about a 4-6 week Shutdown. 

Again how extreme? Airports? NFL/NBA? 

the Political Will may be there for something like this to be enacted, i just don't think a majority of people will follow. especially in the hospitality sector. 

if a Shutdown were enacted, there would have to be another round of Stimulus Checks and a second run at PPP for small businesses. 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

the Political Will may be there for something like this to be enacted, i just don't think a majority of people will follow. especially in the hospitality sector. 

if a Shutdown were enacted, there would have to be another round of Stimulus Checks and a second run at PPP for small businesses. 

Yeah, we should have done that months ago.  Like other Western nations.  It would be way cheaper than trillions of handouts to corporations each year.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Biden trusted advisor already talking about a 4-6 week Shutdown. 

Again how extreme? Airports? NFL/NBA? 

Dr Osterholm? His idea was for the gov't to borrow enough money to pay for every individual's and government's lost income during the period. .Congress can't even pass a stimulus bill, which I'm sure has a far lower price tag. But  he never recommended it to Biden.
"it was not a recommendation. I have never made this recommendation to Biden’s group. We’ve never talked about it.”

 

[AAABatteries]

who doesn’t wash their hands

@Postradamus wasn't fond of cleanliness from my recollection.

 

[The Commish]

China has an app that does this.  Unfortunately, they (of course) also share data from the app with the police.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china-coronavirus-surveillance.amp.html
 

Why can’t we do a version of this that doesn’t involve sharing info with the police?  Wouldn’t you want to know if you’ve been in contact with someone who is COVID+?   Wouldn’t you feel more comfortable going places that require a “code” to get in, knowing that other people were likely “safe” too?

I recognize what fears people have about this.  But this type of solution is what it will take until we have a vaccine, IF we still want to live our lives.

The apps are out there....it's even an option in the Android OS already...you just have to download the other piece.  I said it at the beginning, put it in the OS, update TOS and have people wondering why they are getting alerts from their phone that they were near a person with COVID...problem solved.  

 

[GordonGekko]

We need to think logistics here.

If the American economy collapses, the entire world economy collapses and we all die. Everyone here with kids, their kids die.

It's really is that simple. Brutal but simple.

Things have to open back up and people will just have to take measured risks. Entire industries are going to have to be seen as sunk costs.

I don't believe Universal Basic Income as constructed is the answer, but I do think a full time Public Service Corps where people can get barracks housing, medical care, food and a very basic wage would be good for society. I think work farms would make people better off. Something that people aren't watching is that many states have a public servant pension crisis looming. Another is the declining birth rate. No kids, no future workers or tax payers.

I'm not a fan of socialism, but lots of out of work and starving people will create lots of unrest and violence.

For those of you with kids, think about what lengths you would go to keep your kids fed and safe. What you would do to the bitter end to see that done.

The way to invest people is to give them an opportunity to own land. The only land in America can truly own is in a few unincorporated spots in Alaska. Property taxes make you a slave to the system in place. Give public service, do it long enough, earn the right to own land.

But, in the short term, everything needs to open up completely and all businesses and public entities need to have legal immunity from COVID19. This is just a deal where no one is going to be safe ever again. We have to live with the calculated risk and live with the casualties that come. Healthy people who starve to death doesn't help anyone any more than sick people who die of the pandemic.

I suspect though, this is close to the end. For those of you with children, for their sake, I am very sorry.  For those people , try to find local friends and family and try to build your own small self sustaining tribe. Assume no one will come to help you. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

 

[Terminalxylem]

If the American economy collapses, the entire world economy collapses and we all die. Everyone here with kids, their kids die.

It's really is that simple. Brutal but simple.

Things have to open back up and people will just have to take measured risks. Entire industries are going to have to be seen as sunk costs.

I don't believe Universal Basic Income as constructed is the answer, but I do think a full time Public Service Corps where people can get barracks housing, medical care, food and a very basic wage would be good for society. I think work farms would make people better off. Something that people aren't watching is that many states have a public servant pension crisis looming. Another is the declining birth rate. No kids, no future workers or tax payers.

I'm not a fan of socialism, but lots of out of work and starving people will create lots of unrest and violence.

For those of you with kids, think about what lengths you would go to keep your kids fed and safe. What you would do to the bitter end to see that done.

The way to invest people is to give them an opportunity to own land. The only land in America can truly own is in a few unincorporated spots in Alaska. Property taxes make you a slave to the system in place. Give public service, do it long enough, earn the right to own land.

But, in the short term, everything needs to open up completely and all businesses and public entities need to have legal immunity from COVID19. This is just a deal where no one is going to be safe ever again. We have to live with the calculated risk and live with the casualties that come. Healthy people who starve to death doesn't help anyone any more than sick people who die of the pandemic.

I suspect though, this is close to the end. For those of you with children, for their sake, I am very sorry.  For those people , try to find local friends and family and try to build your own small self sustaining tribe. Assume no one will come to help you. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

You see reasonable and nuanced. Wanna join my tribe?

 

[Terminalxylem]

As to the OP, I am willing to sacrifice our current POTUS to get back to normal.

 

[GordonGekko]

You see reasonable and nuanced. Wanna join my tribe?

What skills do you have?

 

[That one guy]

What’s the limitations on a federal shutdown?  Can DC actually dictate such?

 

[MTskibum]

the Political Will may be there for something like this to be enacted, i just don't think a majority of people will follow. especially in the hospitality sector. 

if a Shutdown were enacted, there would have to be another round of Stimulus Checks and a second run at PPP for small businesses. 

If there is another shutdown we will also need to support some big businesses. I work for a company with 100k+ employees and they already laid of 20% of the workforce. A 4-6 week shutdown would hit us hard and we would be looking at another 20% of employees laid off.

 

[Terminalxylem]

What skills do you have?

Mediocre skier and climber, decent at board games.

 

[FUBAR]

Biden trusted advisor already talking about a 4-6 week Shutdown. 

Again how extreme? Airports? NFL/NBA? 

It's odd that the left seems to be overlooking mental health. 4-6 weeks of a complete shutdown and you'll see more deaths from suicide and other negative health issues than if we just enforced masks and had better testing.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It's odd that the left seems to be overlooking mental health. 4-6 weeks of a complete shutdown and you'll see more deaths from suicide and other negative health issues than if we just enforced masks and had better testing.

I understand where you are coming from. My feelings are that I would be willing to go extreme for a certain period of time, maybe 4-6 weeks but the more I post back and forth with people in here the more I realize there are definite drawbacks and we do an unpredictable amount of damage psych wise plus the mask is very polarizing in different areas of the country...most in major urban areas have gotten used to it or deal with best they can, other parts of the country with less population, doubt you are going to see strict adherence. 

 

[Shula-holic]

It's odd that the left seems to be overlooking mental health. 4-6 weeks of a complete shutdown and you'll see more deaths from suicide and other negative health issues than if we just enforced masks and had better testing.

This is where I am.  I go out now, avoid crowds and always wear my mask.  We have had like five cases total between my wife's two schools, and they are fairly large.  I think we've had some quarantines at my daughters' school but no cases there that I'm aware of.  One of my daughters really struggled bad with the whole shutdown and no school situation, got in a really bad mental place.  Hoping we don't go that route again for multiple reasons.

 

[FUBAR]

This is where I am.  I go out now, avoid crowds and always wear my mask.  We have had like five cases total between my wife's two schools, and they are fairly large.  I think we've had some quarantines at my daughters' school but no cases there that I'm aware of.  One of my daughters really struggled bad with the whole shutdown and no school situation, got in a really bad mental place.  Hoping we don't go that route again for multiple reasons.

Yep

We get a weekly report for all the schools in the district.  This week's report:

This week, we have a total of twenty-five (25) new positive cases of COVID-19 in our district. We currently have 437 staff and students in quarantine from being associated with positive or presumptive cases.

The breakdown is as follows:

Positive Cases:
El: 1 employee, 0 students
El: 0 employees, 2 students
El: 0 employees, 0 students
El: 2 employees, 1 student
El: 0 employees, 0 students
El: 0 employees, 0 students
El: 1 employee, 0 students
Pre-K: 0 employees, 1 student
Middle: 1 employee, 0 students
Middle: 3 employees, 2 students
HS: 1 employee, 5 students
HS: 0 employees, 5 students
District: 0 employees

These high schools have over 2500 students each. (I don't remember the breakdown of elementary and middle, but fairly normal distribution for any area).

 

[Terminalxylem]

It's odd that the left seems to be overlooking mental health. 4-6 weeks of a complete shutdown and you'll see more deaths from suicide and other negative health issues than if we just enforced masks and had better testing.

How did you estimate the number of suicides and other health issues in the context of a complete shutdown?

So far, there’s no evidence lives lost related to pandemic control measures are anywhere near as numerous as deaths due to the infection itself. When you consider the potential for long term neuropsychiatric, cardiovascular and pulmonary sequelae from covid, it’s hard to imagine the cure being worse than the disease.

Recall this is a new infection, present in the US for less than a year, which is already the number 3 cause of death in the country.

ETA Top 3 causes of death in US:

1. CV disease 655K (the actual number one diagnosis is coronary artery disease/heart attack, which killed 365K in 2018)

2. Cancer 599K (Lung cancer is most deadly, killing 135K this year)

3. Covid 251K with 1000+ deaths a day

So considering specific diagnoses, covid-19 is actually the second leading cause of death in the US, behind only heart attacks. And it's not beyond the realm of possibility it will be the number one cause of death over a 12 month period, if we continue on our current trajectory. Back in April, there were weeks when more people died of covid than anything else.

 

[Joe Summer]

It's odd that the left seems to be overlooking mental health. 4-6 weeks of a complete shutdown and you'll see more deaths from suicide and other negative health issues than if we just enforced masks and had better testing.

How did you estimate the number of suicides and other health issues in the context of a complete shutdown?

Regarding suicides, I have seen a lot of anecdotal evidence during the pandemic (such as: claims about increased call volume at suicide hotlines) but not much scientific study in the area.

Also, if we are going to cite the increased suicide rate as a metric when determining lockdowns, then shouldn't we also cite the decreases in other types of death (e.g., workplace and auto), not to mention the expected decrease from coronavirus deaths?

 

[Shula-holic]

Regarding suicides, I have seen a lot of anecdotal evidence during the pandemic (such as: claims about increased call volume at suicide hotlines) but not much scientific study in the area.

Also, if we are going to cite the increased suicide rate as a metric when determining lockdowns, then shouldn't we also cite the decreases in other types of death (e.g., workplace and auto), not to mention the expected decrease from coronavirus deaths?

There's all kinds of ways to quantify losses.  If my 98 year old dad on hospice, heaven forbid, contracted Covid and died today, it's not the same if someone 25 years old were to die from it.  His life expectancy is < 6 months vs losing over 50 years for someone else. 

When the entire country shuts down, how do we measure 300MM people losing quality of life for that period of time?  Personally speaking for myself, a month of lockdown isn't equal to a month of life outside of lockdown, so we all are paying a price for a lockdown by sacrificing part of our lives.  In essence I believe we all sacrifice days/weeks/months with a lockdown off our own lives at least in some proportion.  I think we have to look at loss of quality lifetime not only for those who get sick and those who die, but also for those who do commit suicide, those who lose their livelihood and encounter stresses that will shorten their lives, as well as time lost for the entire population under such lockdown.  

I realize not everyone feels that way and there's no way to objectively quantify that, but I know personally I'd rather live 3 normal days than 4 lockdown days.  So how much is that worth across an entire population?  I'd argue it's nonzero, even before we factor in the economic factors that lead to further lifetime reduction.

 

[Joe Summer]

Regarding suicides, I have seen a lot of anecdotal evidence during the pandemic (such as: claims about increased call volume at suicide hotlines) but not much scientific study in the area.

Also, if we are going to cite the increased suicide rate as a metric when determining lockdowns, then shouldn't we also cite the decreases in other types of death (e.g., workplace and auto), not to mention the expected decrease from coronavirus deaths?

There's all kinds of ways to quantify losses.  If my 98 year old dad on hospice, heaven forbid, contracted Covid and died today, it's not the same if someone 25 years old were to die from it.  His life expectancy is < 6 months vs losing over 50 years for someone else. 

When the entire country shuts down, how do we measure 300MM people losing quality of life for that period of time?  Personally speaking for myself, a month of lockdown isn't equal to a month of life outside of lockdown, so we all are paying a price for a lockdown by sacrificing part of our lives.  In essence I believe we all sacrifice days/weeks/months with a lockdown off our own lives at least in some proportion.  I think we have to look at loss of quality lifetime not only for those who get sick and those who die, but also for those who do commit suicide, those who lose their livelihood and encounter stresses that will shorten their lives, as well as time lost for the entire population under such lockdown.  

I realize not everyone feels that way and there's no way to objectively quantify that, but I know personally I'd rather live 3 normal days than 4 lockdown days.  So how much is that worth across an entire population?  I'd argue it's nonzero, even before we factor in the economic factors that lead to further lifetime reduction.

I'm not advocating for a specific direction. I just think that it would be incomplete (if not dishonest) to say "A lockdown is not worth it if X number of people commit suicide as a result."

 

[Terminalxylem]

Regarding suicides, I have seen a lot of anecdotal evidence during the pandemic (such as: claims about increased call volume at suicide hotlines) but not much scientific study in the area.

Also, if we are going to cite the increased suicide rate as a metric when determining lockdowns, then shouldn't we also cite the decreases in other types of death (e.g., workplace and auto), not to mention the expected decrease from coronavirus deaths?

Correct on both counts. Here’s commentary from a scientific journal:

Widely reported studies modelling the effect of the covid-19 pandemic on suicide rates predicted increases ranging from 1% to 145%,6 largely reflecting variation in underlying assumptions. Particular emphasis has been given to the effect of the pandemic on children and young people. Numerous surveys have highlighted that their mental health has been disproportionately affected, relative to older adults,37 and some suggest an increase in suicidal thoughts and self-harm.8

Supposition, however, is no replacement for evidence. Timely data on rates of suicide are vital, and for some months we have been tracking and reviewing relevant studies for a living systematic review.6 The first version in June found no robust epidemiological studies with suicide as an outcome, but several studies reporting suicide trends have emerged more recently. Overall, the literature on the effect of covid-19 on suicide should be interpreted with caution. Most of the available publications are preprints, letters (neither is peer reviewed),91011 or commentaries using news reports of deaths by suicide as the data source.12

Nevertheless, a reasonably consistent picture is beginning to emerge from high income countries. Reports suggest either no rise in suicide rates (Massachusetts, USA11; Victoria, Australia13; England14) or a fall (Japan,9 Norway15) in the early months of the pandemic. The picture is much less clear in low income countries, where the safety nets available in better resourced settings may be lacking. News reports of police data from Nepal suggest a rise in suicides,12 whereas an analysis of data from Peru suggests the opposite.10

Any change in the risk of suicide associated with covid-19 is likely to be dynamic. The 20% decrease in Japan early in the pandemic seemed to reverse in August, when a 7.7% rise was reported.9 Evidence from previous epidemics suggests a short term decrease in suicide can occur initially—possibly linked to a “honeymoon period” or “pulling together” phenomenon.5 Trends in certain groups may be hidden when looking at overall rates, and the National Child Mortality Database has identified a concerning signal that deaths by suicide among under 18s may have increased during the first phase of lockdown in the UK.16

I keep referring back to the excess mortality data, which show a lot of extra deaths early on (the lion’s share of which were almost certainly due to covid). Notice the observed and expected deaths have just about evened out in recent weeks. As we know covid is accounting for a decent chunk of those totals, the suggestion that non-covid deaths are out-of-control really doesn’t hold water.

 

[Shula-holic]

I'm not advocating for a specific direction. I just think that it would be incomplete (if not dishonest) to say "A lockdown is not worth it if X number of people commit suicide as a result."

I get it, I know two people who have killed themselves over business losses from this and two people who died of the virus as well.  Granted that's anecdotal and I don't pretend to advocate for that ratio being close to representative, but it's a definite factor.  I don't know what an "acceptable" ratio would be.  I just think on that other side of the argument, there are more items than just suicides.  To your point, it is hard to quantify these things so they aren't easily provable to a numeric value.  What is the value we place on schools being shutdown and some kids who will never achieve what they otherwise could have?  Granted, some will eventually catch up but we will never know and be able to put a value on the loss.

A lockdown is more than just a situation of 250K people have died and we could have saved half of them by locking down for another 2 months, or whatever time would be required.  There are collateral costs to lockdowns beyond just suicides.  We won't ever be able to truly know those costs but I think we have to know we are causing that fallout if we go that path.

 

[Terminalxylem]

There's all kinds of ways to quantify losses.  If my 98 year old dad on hospice, heaven forbid, contracted Covid and died today, it's not the same if someone 25 years old were to die from it.  His life expectancy is < 6 months vs losing over 50 years for someone else. 

When the entire country shuts down, how do we measure 300MM people losing quality of life for that period of time?  Personally speaking for myself, a month of lockdown isn't equal to a month of life outside of lockdown, so we all are paying a price for a lockdown by sacrificing part of our lives.  In essence I believe we all sacrifice days/weeks/months with a lockdown off our own lives at least in some proportion.  I think we have to look at loss of quality lifetime not only for those who get sick and those who die, but also for those who do commit suicide, those who lose their livelihood and encounter stresses that will shorten their lives, as well as time lost for the entire population under such lockdown.  

I realize not everyone feels that way and there's no way to objectively quantify that, but I know personally I'd rather live 3 normal days than 4 lockdown days.  So how much is that worth across an entire population?  I'd argue it's nonzero, even before we factor in the economic factors that lead to further lifetime reduction.

There is a way to more objectively measure what you describe: it’s called a quality adjusted life-year, described here

I’m no economist, but you can google QALY and covid to see how policy decisions are determined which factor in both health and economic consequences of mitigation efforts.

 

[Shula-holic]

There is a way to more objectively measure what you describe: it’s called a quality adjusted life-year, described here

I’m no economist, but you can google QALY and covid to see how policy decisions are determined which factor in both health and economic consequences of mitigation efforts.

Thanks, I need to sit down and read over that when my kids aren't yelling to digest it all.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Thanks, I need to sit down and read over that when my kids aren't yelling to digest it all.

It’s not going to account for all the nuances you describe, but it’s a starting point when trying to compare the value of saving your dad versus a 25-year old.

 

[FUBAR]

I'm not advocating for a specific direction. I just think that it would be incomplete (if not dishonest) to say "A lockdown is not worth it if X number of people commit suicide as a result."

There's a lot more to it for sure. It's really hard to quantify the real damage to our psyche of prolonged, or another shut down. 

The early phase of any war gets a lot of "we're in this together" good feelings and people were interested in the news, and to a degree the novelty of you were able to work from home. As time goes on, and there's not much to preoccupy our attention, things change. 

All I'm really advocating for here is a consideration of mental health along with the economic and physical health aspects. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

There's a lot more to it for sure. It's really hard to quantify the real damage to our psyche of prolonged, or another shut down. 

The early phase of any war gets a lot of "we're in this together" good feelings and people were interested in the news, and to a degree the novelty of you were able to work from home. As time goes on, and there's not much to preoccupy our attention, things change. 

All I'm really advocating for here is a consideration of mental health along with the economic and physical health aspects. 

What makes you think mental health isn’t being considered? IMO, our mental health infrastructure isn’t great, and a nationwide disaster like covid just exposes it.

And what do you think about the mental health of frontline workers? I can assure you healthcare workers who take care of covid patients aren’t feeling great atm, simultaneously frustrated and exhausted at the ineptitude of pandemic control measures. 

 

[The Commish]

It's odd that the left seems to be overlooking mental health. 4-6 weeks of a complete shutdown and you'll see more deaths from suicide and other negative health issues than if we just enforced masks and had better testing.

This seems to be a hot take on the surface primarily because, at least here, people have said over and over and over that "lockdowns" arent necessary if we stay away from each other and wear masks.  If we choose not to we are choosing the lockdowns. 

I can't, for the life of me, understand the thought process of those complaining about both and not wanting to do either. Completely illogical and emotional response to solutions that are cut and dry. 

 

[BoltBacker]

It's odd that the left seems to be overlooking mental health. 4-6 weeks of a complete shutdown and you'll see more deaths from suicide and other negative health issues than if we just enforced masks and had better testing.

But if we had better testing.... wouldn't we already be using it?

If we had better testing, better tracing, and 100% compliance to quarantining..... we wouldn't really need any of the rest. But we don't. 

I'm with you though in that the quality and quantity of the testing is the key that somehow people don't talk about enough. That is how the US really dropped the ball early on.

I don't really think anyone is overlooking the mental health angle. Anytime you have a quarter of a million people die in less than a year unexpectedly there is going to be a toll on mental health. And the same goes for major economic downturns. But when you consider some of the hardships and sacrifices earlier generations made for a common good then you can understand how, "Brah! If they shut down the beaches AGAIN and I have to stream ONE MORE season on netflix.... I'm gonna lose it!" must sound to a WWII veteran.

 

[FUBAR]

But if we had better testing.... wouldn't we already be using it?

If we had better testing, better tracing, and 100% compliance to quarantining..... we wouldn't really need any of the rest. But we don't. 

I'm with you though in that the quality and quantity of the testing is the key that somehow people don't talk about enough. That is how the US really dropped the ball early on.

I don't really think anyone is overlooking the mental health angle. Anytime you have a quarter of a million people die in less than a year unexpectedly there is going to be a toll on mental health. And the same goes for major economic downturns. But when you consider some of the hardships and sacrifices earlier generations made for a common good then you can understand how, "Brah! If they shut down the beaches AGAIN and I have to stream ONE MORE season on netflix.... I'm gonna lose it!" must sound to a WWII veteran.

Do you really think the beaches are the real problem here? Yeah, some people whine about the little things but I'm talking about schools and work.  I guarantee you most veterans understand the value of social networks for mental health. 

 

[MTskibum]

But if we had better testing.... wouldn't we already be using it?

If we had better testing, better tracing, and 100% compliance to quarantining..... we wouldn't really need any of the rest. But we don't. 

I'm with you though in that the quality and quantity of the testing is the key that somehow people don't talk about enough. That is how the US really dropped the ball early on.

I don't really think anyone is overlooking the mental health angle. Anytime you have a quarter of a million people die in less than a year unexpectedly there is going to be a toll on mental health. And the same goes for major economic downturns. But when you consider some of the hardships and sacrifices earlier generations made for a common good then you can understand how, "Brah! If they shut down the beaches AGAIN and I have to stream ONE MORE season on netflix.... I'm gonna lose it!" must sound to a WWII veteran.

Not everyone who wants to keep the beaches and other outdoor activities open is a "bro".  You should not stereotype and talk derogatory towards people with different opinions.

I want to keep outdoor activities open because I think that is the safest activity during the pandemic.

 

[Zow]

I don't know that I'm in agreement with another "shut down" or "lock down."  But If the state decides to impose it, what am I gonna do?

I think if people would wear masks, wash their hands and social distance--our outlook would improve.  

Lockdowns aren't "free."  There's a lot of consequences to it.  

But if people would stop with the "supporting masks=not supporting Trump" mentality, and just did it--this would be a helluva lot better.  Honestly if Trump had told people to listen to fauci, social distance, wear masks, etc--the election might have gone differently.  I'm not here to go down that rabbit hole--if you feel the need to argue Trump would have lost anyways--I'll just concede the point.  But you don't win/succeed at anything by not doing the basics.  And we haven't been doing the basics.

Find a county whose Sheriff won't enforce the mandates. 

 

[Zow]

Mediocre skier and climber, decent at board games.

I think he was looking more fun nunchuck skills, computer hacking skills, and being proficient with the bow staff. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Not everyone who wants to keep the beaches and other outdoor activities open is a "bro".  You should not stereotype and talk derogatory towards people with different opinions.

I want to keep outdoor activities open because I think that is the safest activity during the pandemic.

Bro or brah, I think the point was the sacrifice involved by not going to the beach pales in comparison to what we have done in other times of crisis.

Outdoor actives can be relatively safe, of course, but large groups ignoring NPIs in any setting is bad. As we collectively cannot comply with even basic risk mitigation strategies, everyone ends up being punished. But I’d rather be holed up with HDTV and the internet than huddled in a bunker.

 

[Shula-holic]

But if we had better testing.... wouldn't we already be using it?

If we had better testing, better tracing, and 100% compliance to quarantining..... we wouldn't really need any of the rest. But we don't. 

I'm with you though in that the quality and quantity of the testing is the key that somehow people don't talk about enough. That is how the US really dropped the ball early on.

I don't really think anyone is overlooking the mental health angle. Anytime you have a quarter of a million people die in less than a year unexpectedly there is going to be a toll on mental health. And the same goes for major economic downturns. But when you consider some of the hardships and sacrifices earlier generations made for a common good then you can understand how, "Brah! If they shut down the beaches AGAIN and I have to stream ONE MORE season on netflix.... I'm gonna lose it!" must sound to a WWII veteran.

My dad who is a WWII vet really doesn't feel that way, but ok. 

For me personally, I'm not sure the "common good" is to shutdown and live with the consequences of mental and economic issues.  Perhaps the greater common good is to mask and distance as best we can while staying open so the economy doesn't collapse, our kids don't lose a year of learning, etc.  

 

[BoltBacker]

Do you really think the beaches are the real problem here? Yeah, some people whine about the little things but I'm talking about schools and work.  I guarantee you most veterans understand the value of social networks for mental health. 

I think people pretending that we've turned the corner on Covid really is the problem here, yes. When asked the question "What would you be willing to sacrifice" it's pretty clear some people won't sacrifice going to the beach for a few weeks. That speaks volumes and is indicative of an attitude that at least partially explains why we are approaching a quarter of a million people dying in less than a year.

I think most people understand the value of social networks and mental health. Both veterans an non veterans. Anyone that thinks the numbers of people that we would potentially lose to suicide comes anywhere near the number of people that we have already lost directly to Covid is absolutely kidding themselves.

I'll try this again..... if better testing is available than what they are using now why don't you think that they are using it?

 

[BoltBacker]

My dad who is a WWII vet really doesn't feel that way, but ok. 

For me personally, I'm not sure the "common good" is to shutdown and live with the consequences of mental and economic issues.  Perhaps the greater common good is to mask and distance as best we can while staying open so the economy doesn't collapse, our kids don't lose a year of learning, etc.  

We will be living with the mental and economic consequences of Covid whether there is a shutdown or not. Are you saying that you think Sweden didn't have mental or economic issues attributable to Covid because they didn't shut down?

 

[BoltBacker]

Not everyone who wants to keep the beaches and other outdoor activities open is a "bro".  You should not stereotype and talk derogatory towards people with different opinions.

I want to keep outdoor activities open because I think that is the safest activity during the pandemic.

Yeah, I know. And some people wanted to shop without a mask because they thought it was a safe activity during the pandemic. And some people wanted to open up and go to crowded bars because they thought it was a safe activity during the pandemic. 

At some point there is a health crisis where "people with different opinions" are affecting everyone else. The longer we have to acquiesce to every group that has differing opinions on what is safe during a pandemic the longer that it will drag on. Extending the pandemic also has mental/economic consequences.

I also think that some outdoor activities are fine during a pandemic but going outdoors where large groups of people tend to congregate probably aren't as safe as just spending time outdoors where you can more readily distance from other people. Back to the title of this thread, "What would you be willing to sacrifice" it seems pretty obvious that the answer for a lot of people is very, very little. Often times in life people that aren't willing to choose even the smallest sacrifices in the short term are rewarded by being forced to make huge sacrifices in the long term. 

 

[Shula-holic]

We will be living with the mental and economic consequences of Covid whether there is a shutdown or not. Are you saying that you think Sweden didn't have mental or economic issues attributable to Covid because they didn't shut down?

Not at all.  In fact, my business is going to be shutdown whether we stay in our currently constituted open mode or not.  It won't be back until after the vaccine and gatherings are safe again.  So I know better than anyone what the costs can be, some businesses are going to suffer devastating impacts regardless.  I'm not here to say throw every caution to the wind and let me open.  However, other types of businesses can operate at some capacity even if not full throttle and I think many smaller businesses are already on the brink and barely holding on.  

There's no way around some large negative economic impacts even in an open mode as we know it.  But those impacts are reduced or exacerbated based on what restrictions we choose to go with.  So I do think there is a sliding scale of economic, educational, and mental impacts based on our actions in addition to case counts.  With that understanding I also know that no matter how open or closed we choose to go, the baseline for impacts on either front is far from zero.

 

[BoltBacker]

Not at all.  In fact, my business is going to be shutdown whether we stay in our currently constituted open mode or not.  It won't be back until after the vaccine and gatherings are safe again.  So I know better than anyone what the costs can be, some businesses are going to suffer devastating impacts regardless.  I'm not here to say throw every caution to the wind and let me open.  However, other types of businesses can operate at some capacity even if not full throttle and I think many smaller businesses are already on the brink and barely holding on.  

There's no way around some large negative economic impacts even in an open mode as we know it.  But those impacts are reduced or exacerbated based on what restrictions we choose to go with.  So I do think there is a sliding scale of economic, educational, and mental impacts based on our actions in addition to case counts.  With that understanding I also know that no matter how open or closed we choose to go, the baseline for impacts on either front is far from zero.

That seems reasonable. IMO there was too much of a push to pretend everything was already "back to normal" after the first shutdown and that has contributed in a large part to the pain the country is experiencing right now. At this point it almost seems inevitable based on the direction things are going. 

It absolutely does suck that we as a nation are in the position that we are in and am sorry to hear your business is going to be directly be affected in such an adverse way. But as you say when gatherings are safe again(through vaccines or sooner) will benefit us ALL and the sacrifices that we are willing to make now will only bring that day sooner. We all want that day to be sooner rather than later. Unfortunately this holiday season is going to be a test of the judgement of a lot of people. A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link and during a pandemic if 50%+ of folks are very responsible.... you are still kind of screwed.

Let's hope those in WAS go back to fighting the pandemic instead of each other. We need fewer court cases right now and more stimulus both for small businesses and for everyday working people that will have their lives disrupted over the next several months whether there is and "official" shutdown or not.