Trip's Top 4 FF Rookie Busts (1 Viewer)

[TripItUp]

1. Zach Charbonnet - I watch a lot of college ball and I have never understood the valuation of Charbonnet. Great collegiate RB, but a bust RB in the NFL IMHO. His BMI is terrible, his measurables are mediocre by star RB standards and his running style will not translate to the NFL IMHO. He profiles as a JAG rusher IMHO. Maybe he can find a niche as a 3rd down back, but I don't like his ceiling and consider Walker the vastly superior rusher.

2. Devon Achane - seems like a nice gadget player but will never be able to handle the volume and physicality of the NFL to really matter for fantasy purposes. Hard pass on this scatback unless you are into low ceilings.

3. Roschon Johnson - He's the third best RB on the Bears right now. Maybe he emerges in year 2, maybe he doesn't. Like Charbonet, he profiles as a JAG rusher for me. Herbert recently announced that this is a RBBC...so there's that too. This kid is unproven and buried on the depth chart in a RBBC which makes him a hard pass.

4. Josh Downs - He's small. Really small. And now he's going to be catching passes from Richardson, an unpolished QB to say the least. Listen to Zachariason's recent podcasts on rookie QBs and their impact on their respective supporting casts...here's a hint, it's not good...and most of us didn't need to listen to a podcast to know it. Additionally, Pittman and Pierce are strong WRs...at best tiny Downs is WR3 for the foreseeable future...yucky.

 

[TripItUp]

Feel free to share your FF rookie busts in this thread!

 

[travdogg]

I can agree on Roschon Johnson. I think Herbert is an excellent rusher, he's getting the most carries as long as he's healthy. Foreman has some ability too and has superior size to his competition. Johnson could easily be the pass catching RB, but there might not be a team in the NFL where that role is less valuable.

Kendre Miller stands out to me as JAG. Kamara got extended, and is an infinitely better pass catcher, so that role will be his as long as he's on the roster. Williams is a jack of all trades guy, who is nothing special, but also has no holes, and frankly, I have a low opinion of the NO offense, I think Carr is a mediocre QB (who honestly might not be an upgrade from Dalton) without Gruden managing him.

Jayden Reed isn't going super high, but I was shocked he was a 2nd round pick. There is some opportunity in GB if Love is good, but I'd bet against Love, and everyone in this passing game other than Watson. I don't think he's a better prospect than Doubs, and Musgrave/Kraft will likely be more involved than Tonyan/Lewis were a year ago.

I disagree a little on Achane and Downs. I think they may have failed a decade ago, but I think they have so much quickness they can succeed despite their size in the current NFL. I see Achane as a 200+ touch player, and I think Downs could/should beat out Pierce for the #2 job as a rookie. His skill set is more valuable than Pierce's for that team, as a guy who gets open quickly.

I'm indifferent on Charbonnet. I think he's more talented than you do, but I agree he's not as talented as Walker.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Good thread. Nothing to add until I’m deeper into draft research.

 

[titusbramble]

Whoever knew we could work out rookie busts for redraft by simply looking at where there's already RB's on the roster that are going to get significant touches in 2023!

 

[zamboni]

Most of the rookies won't work out anyway, but are any of these really busts based on where they were drafted NFL-wise and where they'll be drafted in fantasy?

Now if we're talking about a Bijan, Gibbs, Richardson, JSN etc., that's another thing.

 

[JohnnyU]

The two that stand out to me are Jonathan Mingo (route running, separation, and college production) and Rashee Rice (route running, burst at the line, and focus. I don't think he is very good). Both are being drafted too early. I disagree about Roschon Johnson. Just because he played behind the best RB in the draft doesn't mean he won't ball at the next level. I believe he's better than Herbert and it isn't close.

 

[titusbramble]

Yeah, I do think Mingo and Rice will disappoint compared to where they will be drafted

 

[Boston]

I think the most overlooked news here is that Khalil Herbert has joined the coaching staff and has determined the Bears will be an RBBC

 

[TripItUp]

Whoever knew we could work out rookie busts for redraft by simply looking at where there's already RB's on the roster that are going to get significant touches in 2023!

that would be one inaccurate synopsis

thank you for adding zero to the thread

 

[TripItUp]

I think the most overlooked news here is that Khalil Herbert has joined the coaching staff and has determined the Bears will be an RBBC

Do you know more than Herbert about the Bears touch distribution?

 

[TripItUp]

Most of the rookies won't work out anyway, but are any of these really busts based on where they were drafted NFL-wise and where they'll be drafted in fantasy?

We are discussing for fantasy purposes, both dynasty and redraft.

 

[Boston]

I think the most overlooked news here is that Khalil Herbert has joined the coaching staff and has determined the Bears will be an RBBC

Do you know more than Herbert about the Bears touch distribution?

Do you know he is making coaching decisions?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

We are discussing for fantasy purposes, both dynasty and redraft.

For dynasty purposes guys like Charbonet and Johnson are already discounted based on their landing spot (Achane probably moved up based on his). Most people taking Charbonet in rookie drafts did so towards the end of Round 1 because he landed behind Walker. If he went to Cincinnati or Kansas City, he'd likely have been drafted at 1.03/1.04.

If we're talking re-draft, all of these guys are likely double digit round picks - Downs (and maybe Johnson) likely don't even get drafted - making them upside picks that would be hard to label as "busts" if they don't hit.

 

[Blick]

It's just so hard to see a path where Charbonet is a "difference maker" without long term injury to Walker. Given that both will be on their rookie contracts for 3+ more years, its not likely to change anytime soon.

The path for guys like Achane and Miller, and maybe even Spears and Johnson, is certainly riskier based strictly on talent (and health in Spears case) evaluations. However, it's much easier to see them as every week fantasy starters at some point.

 

[grateful zed]

im drafting 11th and must take an RB,so im kinda locked in on Charbonet. i just hoping for results.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

It's just so hard to see a path where Charbonet is a "difference maker" without long term injury to Walker. Given that both will be on their rookie contracts for 3+ more years, its not likely to change anytime soon.

The path for guys like Achane and Miller, and maybe even Spears and Johnson, is certainly riskier based strictly on talent (and health in Spears case) evaluations. However, it's much easier to see them as every week fantasy starters at some point.

Isn’t there a theoretical path where Charbonet performs better than Walker and thus gets more touches than him?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Anthony RIchardson screams bust to me. His passing stats in college were atrocious. Yes, he's physically gifted, but I just don't see him developing into a passer. If he can't pass he becomes a glorified Taysom Hill.

Edit to add: Even guys like Kyler, Lamar and Fields all had good to great passing stats in college.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's just so hard to see a path where Charbonet is a "difference maker" without long term injury to Walker. Given that both will be on their rookie contracts for 3+ more years, its not likely to change anytime soon.

Unless he’s used as the GL back & gets a bunch of receptions you mean?

Because that seems like a pretty clear path to FF relevance, and at present we have no idea how that SEA RB division will look.

Seems really silly for anyone (especially the OP) to label a player as a “bust” without even knowing the very minimum of his projected usage. The fact that the Seahawks spent a 2nd round pick on Charbs would seem to indicate an intention to use that player.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Is the arrogance in the topic title necessary?

 

[rockaction]

Is the arrogance in the topic title necessary?

It's schtick? I think. I hope.

 

[foxco]

Is the arrogance in the topic title necessary?

I viewed it more tongue in cheek.

 

[Blick]

It's just so hard to see a path where Charbonet is a "difference maker" without long term injury to Walker. Given that both will be on their rookie contracts for 3+ more years, its not likely to change anytime soon.

Unless he’s used as the GL back & gets a bunch of receptions you mean?

Because that seems like a pretty clear path to FF relevance, and at present we have no idea how that SEA RB division will look.

Seems really silly for anyone (especially the OP) to label a player as a “bust” without even knowing the very minimum of his projected usage. The fact that the Seahawks spent a 2nd round pick on Charbs would seem to indicate an intention to use that player.

No one knows for sure how they will be used. However, keep in mind that Walker was drafted 11 spots higher (not that it matters much) and has looked the part. If both are healthy, it seems to me that both would be capped at RB2 upside.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Is the arrogance in the topic title necessary?

I viewed it more tongue in cheek.

Who can know. Seems unnecessary, regardless

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If both are healthy, it seems to me that both would be capped at RB2 upside.

I’ve said that several times on the Charbonnet & Waller topics.

But RB2 would not be “bust” nor remotely close to bust territory.

 

[Blick]

If both are healthy, it seems to me that both would be capped at RB2 upside.

I’ve said that several times on the Charbonnet & Waller topics.

But RB2 would not be “bust” or remotely close to bust territory.

Only the OP is calling him a bust.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If both are healthy, it seems to me that both would be capped at RB2 upside.

I’ve said that several times on the Charbonnet & Waller topics.

But RB2 would not be “bust” or remotely close to bust territory.

Only the OP is calling him a bust.

Correct. That’s my point in bringing this all up.

 

[Gally]

im drafting 11th and must take an RB,so im kinda locked in on Charbonet. i just hoping for results.

Why must you take a RB? I think locking into a position before the draft even starts is a recipe for disaster. In rookie drafts the most important thing is hitting on a startable asset. Not filling a position of need. If the player you ranked highest also fills a need than bonus points. I think one of the biggest draft mistakes is locking into a position and passing on better talent/players because I "must take a RB"

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

im drafting 11th and must take an RB,so im kinda locked in on Charbonet. i just hoping for results.

Why must you take a RB? I think locking into a position before the draft even starts is a recipe for disaster. In rookie drafts the most important thing is hitting on a startable asset. Not filling a position of need. If the player you ranked highest also fills a need than bonus points. I think one of the biggest draft mistakes is locking into a position and passing on better talent/players because I "must take a RB"

Definitely. If one takes a TE or WR & they gain value, one can always then deal them for a need position.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Also, it sure sounds like OP is saying these players will be busts for football, not just FF.

The description of Charbonnet sure sounds like that.

It’s worth noting that a player can be a very useful football player, and still be a FF bust.

 

[grateful zed]

im drafting 11th and must take an RB,so im kinda locked in on Charbonet. i just hoping for results.

Why must you take a RB? I think locking into a position before the draft even starts is a recipe for disaster. In rookie drafts the most important thing is hitting on a startable asset. Not filling a position of need. If the player you ranked highest also fills a need than bonus points. I think one of the biggest draft mistakes is locking into a position and passing on better talent/players because I "must take a RB"

i feel that my wr corps are win ready, start 4.

hill
olave
godwin
k allen
bateman
hopkins
doubes
mooney
a pierce

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

im drafting 11th and must take an RB,so im kinda locked in on Charbonet. i just hoping for results.

Why must you take a RB? I think locking into a position before the draft even starts is a recipe for disaster. In rookie drafts the most important thing is hitting on a startable asset. Not filling a position of need. If the player you ranked highest also fills a need than bonus points. I think one of the biggest draft mistakes is locking into a position and passing on better talent/players because I "must take a RB"

i feel that my wr corps are win ready, start 4.

hill
olave
godwin
k allen
bateman
hopkins
doubes
mooney
a pierce

I think the point was more about drafting for value than drafting for need. Then you can deal that value to get a need.

 

[Gally]

i feel that my wr corps are win ready, start 4.

hill
olave
godwin
k allen
bateman
hopkins
doubes
mooney
a pierce

That's great but trying to force a lesser talent at RB just because you need one doesn't do you any good if the player doesn't become starter caliber. Rookies are so hit and miss (especially at the end of the first round) that it does you more good to get a player that hits. The best chance to do that is picking the best player based on your evaluations. If you do take a WR and he hits then you have a piece that has value and can be used to improve at a place of need. If you take a lesser RB because you "must" take a RB the chances of them hitting aren't as good and if they don't hit it doesn't do you any good anyway.....even at a position of need.

Too many poeple force positional need over talent in rookie drafts. I think it's the biggest mistake most FF dynasty players make in rookie drafts.

 

[Drake Hater]

Also, it sure sounds like OP is saying these players will be busts for football, not just FF.

The description of Charbonnet sure sounds like that.

It’s worth noting that a player can be a very useful football player, and still be a FF bust.

No points for pass pro

 

[Snotbubbles]

Anthony RIchardson screams bust to me. His passing stats in college were atrocious. Yes, he's physically gifted, but I just don't see him developing into a passer. If he can't pass he becomes a glorified Taysom Hill.

Edit to add: Even guys like Kyler, Lamar and Fields all had good to great passing stats in college.

Totally agree. In 5 years the Colts will be drafting another QB in the top 5.

 

[TripItUp]

Also, it sure sounds like OP is saying these players will be busts for football, not just FF.

I'm speaking mainly to FF.

 

[SoBeDad]

It's not even preseason games, so this may not be worth even 2 cents. But the Dolphin's best receiving RB on the roster is Achane. He knows routes and has good hands. Outside of Robinson and Gibbs, Achane has the easiest path to fantasy relevance. On film, he manages to hold blocks for a second. If Cook comes to Miami, that changes things big time.

Expect Miami to showcase him only a little in preseason.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Also, it sure sounds like OP is saying these players will be busts for football, not just FF.

I'm speaking mainly to FF.

Really? Because in your post you said this:

Great collegiate RB, but a bust RB in the NFL IMHO. His BMI is terrible, his measurables are mediocre by star RB standards and his running style will not translate to the NFL IMHO. He profiles as a JAG rusher IMHO

That sounds awfully specific to the NFL. Especially the part where you said, and I quote, “Great collegiate, but a bust in the NFL”.

That entire quoted section seems to very specifically say he’ll be a bust in the NFL.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Anthony RIchardson screams bust to me. His passing stats in college were atrocious. Yes, he's physically gifted, but I just don't see him developing into a passer. If he can't pass he becomes a glorified Taysom Hill.

Edit to add: Even guys like Kyler, Lamar and Fields all had good to great passing stats in college.

Totally agree. In 5 years the Colts will be drafting another QB in the top 5.

ARich is going to be just fine. He has the perfect coaching staff to maximize his physical gifts, and enough talent around him + the arm talent to succeed.

A little coaching up, and he’s going to make a lot of naysayers eat their words.

 

[TripItUp]

That sounds awfully specific to the NFL. Especially the part where you said, and I quote, “Great collegiate, but a bust in the NFL”.

That entire quoted section seems to very specifically say he’ll be a bust in the NFL.

This is a fantasy football messageboard...I've updated the OP and the Title for you.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That sounds awfully specific to the NFL. Especially the part where you said, and I quote, “Great collegiate, but a bust in the NFL”.

That entire quoted section seems to very specifically say he’ll be a bust in the NFL.

This is a fantasy football messageboard...I've updated the OP and the Title for you.

I don’t see what that has to do with contradicting yourself.

You very clearly said he would be a bust in the NFL & gave multiple reasons for it, then said you were talking about FF.

So yes - this is a fantasy football message board, where you said Charbonnet would be an NFL bust then contradicted yourself.

Just an observation.

 

[TripItUp]

It's not even preseason games, so this may not be worth even 2 cents. But the Dolphin's best receiving RB on the roster is Achane. He knows routes and has good hands. Outside of Robinson and Gibbs, Achane has the easiest path to fantasy relevance. On film, he manages to hold blocks for a second. If Cook comes to Miami, that changes things big time.

Expect Miami to showcase him only a little in preseason.

I think all of that makes sense. What's his ceiling for 2023 and beyond as the third down back in your opinion?

 

[TripItUp]

I don’t see what that has to do with contradicting yourself.

You very clearly said he would be a bust in the NFL & gave multiple reasons for it, then said you were talking about FF.

So yes - this is a fantasy football message board, where you said Charbonnet would be an NFL bust then contradicted yourself.

Just an observation.

we'll agree to disagree on your inaccurate interpretation.

leave the thread if you aren't going to contribute...thanks.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don’t see what that has to do with contradicting yourself.

You very clearly said he would be a bust in the NFL & gave multiple reasons for it, then said you were talking about FF.

So yes - this is a fantasy football message board, where you said Charbonnet would be an NFL bust then contradicted yourself.

Just an observation.

we'll agree to disagree on your inaccurate interpretation.

leave the thread if you aren't going to contribute...thanks.

I quoted you.

There was zero interpretation.


And I am contributing: I’m pointing out your original post was inaccurate and questioning why you’d label a 2nd round NFL RB a “bust” without knowing anything about how the Seahawks are going to use him.

 

[TripItUp]

And I am contributing: I’m pointing out your original post was inaccurate and questioning why you’d label a 2nd round NFL RB a “bust” without knowing anything about how the Seahawks are going to use him.

let us know when you are finished dirsupting the conversation....there are plenty of other posters that have already provided their opinions on rookie FANTASY busts.

Unless disrupting conversation is what you do around here...then you do you I guess.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Unless disrupting conversation is what you do around here...then you do you I guess.

You’re being ridiculous.

again, I quoted you saying he’d be an NFL bust.

Me quoting you saying something in a topic hardly seems like a disruption to the topic, but hey, “you do you, I guess.”

 

[TripItUp]

Totally agree. In 5 years the Colts will be drafting another QB in the top 5.

I think Richardson has a super wide range of outcomes....wouldn't shock me if he developed to be an MVP contender and wouldn't shock me if he's out of the league in 5 years.

A lot of really smart analysts like his chances.

I'm certainly not going to call him a potential bust yet.

 

[FBG Moderator]

Both of you drop the back and forth little slaps at each other and keep it 100% on your opinion of the player. If you're not able to do that, find another board.

 

[TripItUp]

Too many poeple force positional need over talent in rookie drafts. I think it's the biggest mistake most FF dynasty players make in rookie drafts.

Agree with this.

Last year I forced myself to take Pierce when I should have taken Wilson...dumb decision by me.

 

[Desert_Power]

2. Devon Achane - seems like a nice gadget player but will never be able to handle the volume and physicality of the NFL to really matter for fantasy purposes. Hard pass on this scatback unless you are into low ceilings.

I think it is the floor, rather than the ceiling that is low on Achane. I think his FF production is going to be very TD dependant.