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Time to buy low on Romo (1 Viewer)

th3f00l

Footballguy
Let me present my argument. I know, plenty of people out there hate this move. I am prepared for all of the flames to follow. Romo, despite all of his critics, is a great NFL and Fantasy QB. Romo is a talented quarterback, with an arsenal of receiving options, and a QB friendly schedule. Romo is throwing behind the best line that he has had for his entire career, and the emergence of the run will only help his performance going forward.

I know we all have short memories and a "what have you done for me lately" attitudes. So even though he is ranked top 10 in passing TD's per season in 6 of 7 seasons since being named a starter, and top 5 in passing yards per game in 4 of the past 7, lets look at last years stats. Last season was arguably one of the worst since Tony became a starter.

5th among QB's in TD's with 31, one of the lowest INT per pass attempt with 1.9%, 22.8 passes completed per game (ranked 9th), Ranked 12th in total yards playing 1 game less than anyone in the top 15 (100 yards behind being ranked # 10), 8th best QB rating (96.7), and ranked 11th in yards per game (225.2).

These stats show a low end top ten QB. Currently he is being projected near 15th as a QB and this should be the lowest value he will have for the rest of the season.

On offense Dallas has changed only for the better. The offensive line includes three recent first round picks with Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, and Tyrone Smith. In the game against STL Smith was able to contain Robert Quinn very effectively, and the unit did not give up a single sack. Dallas was also able to effectively run the ball against a Defense that aggressively stacked the box against the run. The set of receiving weapons is ridiculously deep: Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, DeMarco Murray, Jason Witten, Cole Beasly, Dwayne Harris, Gavin Escobar. Each of those players is a decent receiving option. The offense has a lot of youth in it. They should only get better with time.

The emergence of the run game may have some people second guessing Tony Romo's value. I strongly disagree. A well balanced offense can only help everyone involved, and keep defenses honest. Dallas had a huge problem last year being able to sustain drives. Romo has shouldered much of the blame for this, but he was being asked to do too much. When a team is playing one dimensional the opposing defenses can cheat and focus on shutting down one aspect of the game. With a healthy run game it can leave Dez Bryant in one on one situations (like in that ridiculous play where he ends up wide open in the middle of the field against STL), or many of the other weapons open for easy check down opportunities.

Taking all of that into account, lets look at the upcoming schedule. ( rank scale 1=best matchup 32=toughest )

WK '13vsQB Team '14vsQB Avg YDS Avg TD Avg INT

4 29 NO 7 285 1.3 0

5 18 Hou 22 254 1 0.7

6 32 @Sea 8 258.7 2 0.7

7 23 NYG 6 267.3 1 1

8 12 Was 14 241.3 1.7 0.3

9 15 Ari 16 253.3 1.3 1

10 5 @Jax 1 333.3 2.7 0.3

11 BYE - - - - - - - -

12 23 @NYG 6 267.3 1 1

13 6 Phi 3 288.3 2.7 0.7

14 24 @Chi 20 245.7 1 2

15 6 @Phi 3 288.3 2.7 0.7

16 17 Ind 5 285.3 2 1

AVG 17.5 9.25 272.3 1.7 0.78

With owers being fed up with Romo, the biased against him based on his reputation, and not being 100% to start the season… …. you could probably get him for a bag of chips. In some leagues he was probably flat out dropped for Cousins. Some of you may think that his value will continue to plummet through the NO and HOU games. You may be right, but the NO defense hasn't had an interception all year. This game has huge shootout potential and if Romo goes 300 yds and 3 TD's you won't be able to get him at current value for the rest of the year.

 
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Someone dumped him last week, picked him up off waivers for nothing. He's dirt cheap now. His upside is undeniable. Crossing fingers.

 
In the league I have him Im not selling but I am concerned. I picked him because as his history shows, he's underrated, but the start has scared me. Murray and the running game is controlling the offense thus far, which is a new development.

Im not sure what to think of Romo at this point since he hasnt had particularly difficult matchups.

 
The knock on romo is his injury... which has clearly affected his play thusfar.
The injury has affected him. I don't think so much in it's lingering, rather that he missed a lot of off season and practice and just hasn't been in football form. That line looks like it can keep him upright to minimize his chance of re-injury. I fully expect him to be in better shape every week until he is 106.7%.

 
Romo or Brady ROS?
Very similar in terms of underperforming QB's. Brady has a much more brutal schedule. That being said, Brady has always been ranked a tier above Romo in terms of Fantasy. I think it is too early to give up on either QB, but I am higher on Romo this year. Romo has faced the 49ers, Rams, and Titans. Brady has faced Fins, Vikes, and Raiders. I give Romo more of an excuse for under-performing, especially considering that he has yet to be back in shape.

 
Murray and the running game is controlling the offense thus far, which is a new development.
They've had two, what should have been, cake games. They'll be playing from behind a lot this year and/or playing tough run defenses--two PHI match ups, NOS this week, Colts, Bears, Seahawks....

 
At his current value theres upside. Im still cautious about his timing, touch, and ability to scramble and make things happen. That's what makes the good Romo good. And I could see a lot of 225 and 1 td stat lines unless the running game falls apart.....Garrett will panic and abandon the run, but he didn't last week. As a Cowboys fan I was happy about that.

 
The fact that Dallas is finally running the ball does scare me a bit. I own Romo in both my leagues but I know Dallas can be more successful running. They just never committed to it. I am hoping that when the season rolls on, Garret gets back to his old ways of chucking it 50 times.

 
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It's easier for you to say when you don't own him. Ask us how WE truly feel.
For whatever reason Kaepernick dropped in the league I picked Romo in first, and got him 4 rounds later, 11th IIRC. Ive started Kaep every week thus far and will continue to do so until I see the Romo of old.

 
I drafted him fully expecting a couple of bad games to start (albeit not as bad as weeks 1 & ). He'll get it together and end up top 6-7 QB in FFpoints. Holding him as my only QB and not really nervous about TBH.

 
Over the season, defenses will adjust to what is going on and I agree that Romo is primed for some big games as teams are not about to just let Murray run the ball on them all day. I have him and I have been tempter to drop him due to having three qbs, but I think I am going to hold because he has so much future value. Remember that when you drop him for whatever flavor of the week player there is out there, you are giving away a potential top 5 qb to one of your opponents.

 
Vegas has this Sundays game listed at 53u, with just a 2.5pt spread. If that isn't shootout potential I don't know what is . If you are gonna get Romo this is the week to do it.

 
This has the feeling of a post I made a few years ago about buying Dez Bryant so I am going to sound off here:

The OP's thought seem exactly in line in what we saw a few years ago with Dez. Every piece is there but something wasn't clicking.

For Romo, you have to look at the timing and footwork and remember that he had an injury that has kept him out as they installed a new system with a new OC.

That OC, despite what is openly said, has a history for chucking the ball around when the bullets start flying.

So far, the Cowboys have been able to impose their game onto their opponents for the most part. Despite losing to the Niners, they WERE able to run all over them.

Their runner is at the top of the league. Is that trend or mirage? Does that runner have a history of getting nicked up at times (which would lead the team to throw more)?

With all this info to consider, I agree with the OP. I think right now is the exact time to buy Tony Romo. The Main thing that has held him down in fantasy and caused people to have a negative "under playing" perception about him is the number of attempts are down. Romo has historically hovered closer to the 30-35 range and actually went above 40 five times last year. He is also a guy that almost always averages closer to the 2 TDs a game instead of where he is now.

More time in the system and stiffer opponents should correct both of these things and as Coop said, the Bears, Eagles, Colts fantasy playoff schedule doesn't hurt one bit.

Buy Tony Romo right now.

 
The schedule is certainly tasty outside of the 2 remaining NFC West matchups. That said, I drafted Romo buying into the Linehan hype with the expectation that he was going to throw the ball more than 23 times a game. The fact that he only aired it out 23 times in a game where they were down 21-0 at one point worries me. The other worry is that they're actually running the ball in the redzone now whereas before they'd try some PA or the fade to Dez.

The only scenario where I can imagine these 2 scenarios changing is either teams start to actually stack the box against the cowboys or Murray gets injured. On the brightside, they do have 7 more games against the NFC East left.

 
I have had Romo the last few years and avoided him this year because the back injury seemed to be a bigger deal in the off-season. I'm glad I did. Normally QB's with back injuries start strong and get worse as the season goes on. Romo is starting weak, and playing QB in the NFL isn't gonna make his back any better.

 
First off, great opening post th3. Very good information in there.

I love his schedule, the bad Dallas D, the O-Line, the receiving weapons, and the emergence of the running game to take some of the heat off. But the back injury scares the hell out of me. He just doesn't look like the old Romo. Hope I am wrong and he is just being tentative.

 
Man, he was sharp tonight! The whole Cowboys team, including the defense looked good. Better than they've looked for a long time.

So one question has been answered. Romo can be good Romo still and put up some fantasy points. Hell, he even had a patented juke and jive to avoid a sure sack, and make a nice completion to Witten. And he had his longest career run (I was surprised he didn't have a longer one) of 21 yards. He's still not as quick on his feet as he once was, but he can move around and make things happen.

We are left to wonder if he will hold up physically. If that O-line holds up, I'd bet yes. They are looking like a very formidable unit right now.

 
Man, he was sharp tonight! The whole Cowboys team, including the defense looked good. Better than they've looked for a long time.

So one question has been answered. Romo can be good Romo still and put up some fantasy points. Hell, he even had a patented juke and jive to avoid a sure sack, and make a nice completion to Witten. And he had his longest career run (I was surprised he didn't have a longer one) of 21 yards. He's still not as quick on his feet as he once was, but he can move around and make things happen.

We are left to wonder if he will hold up physically. If that O-line holds up, I'd bet yes. They are looking like a very formidable unit right now.
He sure isn't getting blown up like he has been in the past. Nobody is touching him. That has to help the chances.

 
He played well last night. He was patient, mobile, and made good decisions. Their offense is nicely balanced now that they are finally using their running game. Their OL looks good. I was surprised at the performance of their D against a high octane offense.

 
The Oline has top picks at all positions and is finally healthy together. This could be a scary year as the Cowboys may make some noise. As an Eagle fan, I don't like this but as a Romo owner I am encouraged by him standing up right.

 
The Dallas O-line is looking dominant thus far in the season. Sooner or later teams will have to start stacking the box against the run as well so the ability to remain balanced should help Romo out. He and Eli are both looking much better as the season progresses... perhaps a bit of noobness as a result of adjusting to new offensive schemes?

 

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