How Good Must Your QB Be To Win A SuperBowl? (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

We've had some interesting talk on Dak Prescott and others.

Lots of talk about how you can't win a Super Bowl With a mid-level QB (ranked 12-20 or so on the real QB ranking).

For lots of folks though, that's where Purdy and Goff are ranked.

And for sure, it's a moving part question. Obviously, Trent Diler and Joe Flacco won Super Bowls with nice surrounding casts.

What do you think?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Better than Tua Tags, let's start there since he's starting in the Pro Bowl to my knowledge and yet he cannot make plays on his own and has no speed.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

I would also offer up the 2015 version of Peyton Manning, way past his prime but played within himself and added a lot on the field pre-snap.

It can definitely be done but you need to be special in other aspects of the game and get competent play from your QB. Limit turnovers, run the offense, and get opportunities for your RBs and WRs to shine.

Also great coaching helps a lot.

 

[General Malaise]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

Bingo. This is precisely the point some of us are trying to make about Dak.

 

[menobrown]

And for sure, it's a moving part question. Obviously, Trent Diler and Joe Flacco won Super Bowls with nice surrounding casts.

Flacco deserves more credit then being lumped with Dilfer and IMO should be viewed more like Eli. Flacco was incredible during their SB run and really from 2011-2014 was pretty strong in the playoffs. He made plays, did not make mistakes, was not just along for the ride.

Dilfer did not make mistakes but did not do anything. Brad Johnson did a little more but made a lot of mistakes and on the whole I'd say was the worst overall combo of QB pedigree and playoff performance to win a SB in the last 30 or so years. These two represent the floor.

But those two floors were also over 20 years ago so not sure if they should carry a lot of weight and then we are into Flacco/Eli status.

Move the Sticks Podcast labels QB's as Trucks and Trailers and I'll steal that for now. There are only a few trucks in the leagues and most of the QB's we'd think of in those terms today the only one who really did pull his team to a SB was Mahomes, and I guess Rodgers. So really Allen, Lamar and Burrow all seem capable of being trucks but have not really done it though Burrow got close. I think there is a healthy amount of QB's who can win SB's as trailers, just got to put 3-4 games together of not making mistakes. The AFC is going to give us a trailer, the NFC is going to give us a truck and I'm sure narratives will be crafted out of whoever wins but both can be successful.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Trent Dilfer won one, so probably more guys than most people would guess.

 

[Joe Schmo]

Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath (MVP), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 5. John Unitas (Chuck Howley), 1 TD- Earl Morrall played the majority of the game for Baltimore
Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese (Jake Scott), 1 TD
Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese (Larry Csonka), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw (Franco Harris), 1 TD
Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw (Lynn Swann), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler (Fred Biletnikoff), 1 TD
Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach (Harvey Martin & Randy White), 1 TDs
Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann (John Riggins), 2 TDs,
Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett (Marcus Allen), 1 TD
Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon (Richard Dent), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana (Jerry Rice), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana (MVP), 5 TDs
Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler (Ottis Anderson), 1 TD
Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs
Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs
Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 56: Matthew Stafford (Cooper Kupp), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 57: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 3 TDs

10 qbs who are not considered upper tier have won 11 sbs showing in can be done. I'd add Eli Manning as well but considering he is likely to make the hof based on where he played not sure how to account for him. In any event, a hot run by a mid-tier qb can get you over the hump, just can't shrink in the moment ala Dak.

 

[Joe Schmo]

Fyi, I read the question as to a qbs overall career rather than one-two seasons.

 

[Joe Schmo]

Shoot, I forgot Jim Mcmahon so that's one more... 20% of sbs won by non-elites.

 

[Joe Bryant]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

I factor performance in big spots into the overall ranking. Do you not?

 

[Joe Bryant]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

Bingo. This is precisely the point some of us are trying to make about Dak.

Bingo? I factor performance in big spots into the overall ranking. Do you not?

 

[Terpman22]

I think its better to break it down into 2 categories:

What kind of QB do you need to win a Super Bowl

and

What kind of QB do you need to perennially be in the mix to compete for a Super Bowl.

You can literally win a Super Bowl with any kind of mid level QB as long as you have the right coaching and roster in place. Think Dilfer, Hostetler, Foles, Aikman

But to compete yearly, you need a Super Top Tier guy. Think Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Mahomes, etc...

 

[Joe Schmo]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

I factor performance in big spots into the overall ranking. Do you not?

I don't. Manning needed all kinds of help to get over the hump and win a superbowl but he is nowhere near mid-tier. Same with Jim Kelly who never won one and was in part to blame for some of the losses.

 

[Joe Bryant]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

I factor performance in big spots into the overall ranking. Do you not?

I don't. Manning needed all kinds of help to get over the hump and win a superbowl but he is nowhere near mid-tier. Same with Jim Kelly who never won one and was in part to blame for some of the losses.

Really? What other critical parts do you leave out when you factor where a QB ranks?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

I factor performance in big spots into the overall ranking. Do you not?

I'm not sure you do, because I feel like you've argued that Dak is a great QB despite him repeatedly failing in big spots. Can't have it both ways. If you're factoring performance in big spots into your overall ranking, he's not a very good QB at all.

 

[Joe Schmo]

Joe, break down your factors for me so I can decide which I consider critical. Thanks.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think its better to break it down into 2 categories:

What kind of QB do you need to win a Super Bowl

and

What kind of QB do you need to perennially be in the mix to compete for a Super Bowl.

You can literally win a Super Bowl with any kind of mid level QB as long as you have the right coaching and roster in place. Think Dilfer, Hostetler, Foles, Aikman

But to compete yearly, you need a Super Top Tier guy. Think Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Mahomes, etc...

Hall of Fame QB Troy Aikman is mid-tier?

This is starting to make more sense now.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I feel like you've argued that Dak is a great QB

Do you have a quote / link for that?

 

[Joe Bryant]

Joe, break down your factors for me so I can decide which I consider critical. Thanks.

I try not to leave anything important out when I factor a ranking. Performance in big games / big spots would be something I factor.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I feel like you've argued that Dak is a great QB

Do you have a quote / link for that?

No, that's why I said I feel like you've argued that but didn't quote you. Perhaps I've misunderstood. What is your "overall ranking" of Dak Prescott as a QB?

 

[Joe Bryant]

No, that's why I said I feel like you've argued that but didn't quote you

Why would you feel like that? It has to be something I've written here, right? What was it?

 

[Joe Schmo]

Dan Marino
Fran Tarkenton
Jim Kelly
Dan Fouts

All condired top level qbs during their careers and none won a superbowl and some looked pretty bad in their losses. Does not lower them to mid-tier.

Eli Manning
Joe Flacco
Playoff hot streaks led to them winning 3 sbs, both of them considered mid-tier during their careers.

Dak...jury is out but as of today he puts up gaudy stats in the regular season but becomes a deer in headlights in the playoffs.

 

[Joe Schmo]

Basically, if you have a good team all around then a non-great qb can manage a team to a sb win. Conversely, a great qb can spit up on themselves and cost a team a sb. So to answer the op question- a qb anywhere on the spectrum from bad(Dilfer) to mediocre(Flacco) to great(Brady) can win you a sb. Dak is somewhere on that spectrum.

 

[travdogg]

I think you can win with any QB who is decent, even one who does something well, and is bad in other ways. I very much think a team could win a Super Bowl with current Justin Fields, just not by passing 45 times a game. You just need a MUCH better team around him than you do with say, Tom Brady.

Ultimately its still a team game with 22 people on the field each play. Sometimes a QB will rise above his supporting cast, and sometimes they will drag them down, but its got a lot of variance. There is no such thing as a QB who is great every week.

Ideally you have an elite QB, but I don't think its a prerequisite or requirement for a contending team. The NFC playoffs is a good example of that. Goff is good but not great, and the jury is probably still out on Purdy, but he seems on a somewhat similar level. Meanwhile the AFC has (likely) multi-time NFL MVPs, one of whom has a history (debatable whether that's just variance or something predictable) of playing his best in the playoffs.

I said this in another thread, but Tom Brady had some terrible playoff performances, and his team didn't win those games. Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl playing horrible football and wasn't particularly good in his Colts Championship playoff run either. Conversely, Josh Allen was basically perfect in 2021, and also very good this year, and yet, no Super Bowl runs. Matt Ryan was practically perfect in 2016 and his team didn't win it all.

I will make another argument that I made in another thread that I think sorta of ties into this, in that I hate the idea of QB vs QB being a thing we rate QBs by. Its not tennis. The better QB is often on the losing team.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

No, that's why I said I feel like you've argued that but didn't quote you

Why would you feel like that? It has to be something I've written here, right? What was it?

Guess I was mistaken.

To reframe, what I know you have said is that you believe Prescott is good enough to win a Super Bowl (pretty sure that's a direct quote). And so where we differ is in what it means to be "good enough." He absolutely has the talent to win a Super Bowl, he's demonstrated over multiple excellent regular seasons that he can perform as a top-tier QB. But he has consistently come up small in the biggest spots when they get to the playoffs. And in that sense, I've seen enough - he's not good enough. It doesn't matter how many more 12-win, 4,000-yard, 30-TD seasons he compiles. When the pressure is on in the playoffs he's given us no reason to believe he won't disappoint.

 

[Bankerguy]

I just want to say thanks for taking this convo out of the Cowboys thread. It gets tiring after a while.

I believe that one of these 3 has to be super elite to win the SB:
Coach
QB
Defense (Ala Ravens D with Dilfer)

With Dallas:
Dak is better than average
McCarthy average at best
Defense was over rated and built to play with the lead.

No beuno, no surprise they flamed out. Although, I absolutely didn’t think it would be GB.

 

[Bri]

If players can win the turnover battle, the game should lay on the coaches shoulders.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Guess I was mistaken.

To reframe, what I know you have said is that you believe Prescott is good enough to win a Super Bowl (pretty sure that's a direct quote). And so where we differ is in what it means to be "good enough." He absolutely has the talent to win a Super Bowl, he's demonstrated over multiple excellent regular seasons that he can perform as a top-tier QB.

Yes. That's correct. I think he's good enough to win a Super Bowl. And fully appreciate others think he's not. That's why I wanted to start the discussion here.

I think it's especially relevant this year as I don't think many folks consider Goff or Purdy great QBs. But I think both are good enough to win a Super Bowl.

I mostly think it's an interesting discussion.

 

[Terpman22]

I think its better to break it down into 2 categories:

What kind of QB do you need to win a Super Bowl

and

What kind of QB do you need to perennially be in the mix to compete for a Super Bowl.

You can literally win a Super Bowl with any kind of mid level QB as long as you have the right coaching and roster in place. Think Dilfer, Hostetler, Foles, Aikman

But to compete yearly, you need a Super Top Tier guy. Think Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Mahomes, etc...

Hall of Fame QB Troy Aikman is mid-tier?

This is starting to make more sense now.

Yeah, he is. We could get sidetracked here, but its funny some of the same people that say stuff like "No way Eli Manning belongs in the HOF!" also do some pearl clutching when you say that Troy Aikman was pretty much carried by an elite roster. Aikman has 3 rings for sure and is in the Hall of Fame, but statistically speaking, he is the definition of a mid tier QB. His games played and passing touchdowns are literally exactly the same: 165. Also had 141 INTs. One season in his entire career where he had more than 20 touchdown passes. Career QB rating of 82 or so. But he was on the team that won 3 Super Bowls so people automatically believe him to be some sort of elite passing QB of years past, when he was the Super Bowl MVP just 1 of those 3 wins. Eli Manning actually got the Super Bowl MVP in both of his championship seasons.

 

[Bankerguy]

I also wanted to point the following out:

@Joe Bryant you have been super active in the threads of late. I’m not sure if this is a conscious business decision or not? Either way well done! The guiding of better football and fantasy discussions IS value added.

The strength of this place is the crowd sourcing and the hearing different point of views and homer fan insights. I sound old and nostalgic, but this is how it used be years ago. I am liking the new focus.

Respect.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Brad Johnson
Ken Stabler
Joe Namath
Mark Rypien
Nick Foles
Jeff Hostettlet
Jim McMahon
Doug Williams

All very average QBs.

​

 

[Terpman22]

Brad Johnson
Ken Stabler
Joe Namath
Mark Rypien
Nick Foles
Jeff Hostettlet
Jim McMahon
Doug Williams

All very average QBs.

​

I agree with what you are saying, but the whole "catching lightning in a bottle" thing also applies. I'd argue (of course I'm biased) that Nick Foles had one of the top 10 Super Bowl performances of all time. Overall, average QB, but that year, especially the Title game and Super Bowl, he was absolutely playing out of his mind and the team definitely needed him to do so to actually win the Super Bowl. Johnson, McMahon, Hostetler, not so much.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Brad Johnson
Ken Stabler
Joe Namath
Mark Rypien
Nick Foles
Jeff Hostettlet
Jim McMahon
Doug Williams

All very average QBs.

​

I wonder if it's fair to say the game has changed and become more dependent on QB?

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think its better to break it down into 2 categories:

What kind of QB do you need to win a Super Bowl

and

What kind of QB do you need to perennially be in the mix to compete for a Super Bowl.

You can literally win a Super Bowl with any kind of mid level QB as long as you have the right coaching and roster in place. Think Dilfer, Hostetler, Foles, Aikman

But to compete yearly, you need a Super Top Tier guy. Think Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Mahomes, etc...

Hall of Fame QB Troy Aikman is mid-tier?

This is starting to make more sense now.

Yeah, he is. We could get sidetracked here, but its funny some of the same people that say stuff like "No way Eli Manning belongs in the HOF!" also do some pearl clutching when you say that Troy Aikman was pretty much carried by an elite roster. Aikman has 3 rings for sure and is in the Hall of Fame, but statistically speaking, he is the definition of a mid tier QB. His games played and passing touchdowns are literally exactly the same: 165. Also had 141 INTs. One season in his entire career where he had more than 20 touchdown passes. Career QB rating of 82 or so. But he was on the team that won 3 Super Bowls so people automatically believe him to be some sort of elite passing QB of years past, when he was the Super Bowl MVP just 1 of those 3 wins. Eli Manning actually got the Super Bowl MVP in both of his championship seasons.

Thanks for the honesty.

 

[travdogg]

Brad Johnson
Ken Stabler
Joe Namath
Mark Rypien
Nick Foles
Jeff Hostettlet
Jim McMahon
Doug Williams

All very average QBs.

Joe Namath was absolutely not an average QB, he was probably the most talented QB of the 1960's. Knee issues destroyed his career, and he hung around to the point of being a liability, but he was an NFL MVP level player for a few years, even if his stats don't totally show it.

I would add Jim Plunkett to the list (Stabler was certainly better than Plunkett) and I think Stabler probably shouldn't be on the list.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Brad Johnson
Ken Stabler
Joe Namath
Mark Rypien
Nick Foles
Jeff Hostettlet
Jim McMahon
Doug Williams

All very average QBs.

​

I wonder if it's fair to say the game has changed and become more dependent on QB?

The rules changes favoring offense certainly point that way. But maybe a better way to phrase it would be that a team has a big advantage with a cerebral QB. Or a rushing QB. Or both.

The only relevant change favoring defense seems to be the no push-out rule for receivers (have to tap the toes now).

But with the penalty parade any time a defender breathes hard on a QB, or gently brushes against a receiver, I believe an average or slightly above average QB can still win the SB.

They just have to see the coverage and know to throw to the receiver who’s being interfered with/held, or complain to the refs after every love tap by a DL. Penalties are taking over the game.

Brock Purdy is arguably the worst remaining QB in the playoffs (a case could be made for Goff) but he’s absolutely capable of winning it all if the SF D & offensive skill players are on their game.

Mobile QBs seem to have a huge advantage as well. Allen with his faux slide runs leave defenders helpless. Used to be a QB would get hit so hard he’d think twice about taking off like that. LJax is a better QB than many give him credit for, but it’s still sort of a wildcat offense and his legs make him extremely dangerous. But one reason Baltimore is still playing is because LJax maybe understands nuance better than Allen. LJax knows he needs to pick up a 1st down, where Allen looks to the end zone ignoring open receivers across the middle & 2 mins on the clock. Everyone blames Bass for that loss, but that was some egregiously bad decision making by Allen after the 2 min warning.

Love arguably outplayed Purdy, but at the end instead of running to the 12+ yards of open grass in front of him, he threw across his body to nobody. Purdy led a 6 for 7 drive (shoulda been 7/7) and marched down the field for a score. And one of the critical plays was the 9 yard scramble. A sack there kills the drive. Likewise for an incompletion. But Purdy processes quickly, and in the heat of the moment under pressure made a great decision. Love didn’t. It’s why Love will be watching Purdy play in the NFCC from his couch.

I still believe games are won in the trenches - if you can pass protect, and open up run lanes, your offense will thrive. And if your QB makes good decisions, especially under pressure, you can win games. And if your defense can stop the other team from doing those things, it’s a perfect recipe. None of that has really changed.

Having an elite QB has always been, and will always be an advantage in the NFL, but I don’t think it’s magnitudes more important than the other things I just mentioned.

/rambling

 

[ZWK]

Lots of things are *possible*, the question is how *likely* they are.

Just looking at which quarterbacks made it to the Super Bowl over the past 10-20 years, on average it looks like there is about

1 top 4 QB
0.5 QB5-8 (top 8 but not top 4)
0.25 QB9-16 (top half but not top 8)
0.25 QB17-32 (bottom half)

With 2 of 32 teams in the Super Bowl each year, on average a team should expect to make the Super Bowl every 16 years. But that changes to:

Every 4 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 8 years if you have top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 32 years if you have top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 64 years if you don't have a top half QB

Winning a Super Bowl will come about half as often as this, probably a bit less if you have a bad QB and a bit more if you have a top QB (since the team with the better QB is more often than not the favorite). So you should expect to win the Super Bowl perhaps

Every 7.5 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 16 years if you have a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 70 years if you have a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 160 years if you don't have a top half QB

Once every 160 years sounds pretty hopeless, but remember that half the league (16 teams) has a bottom half QB, which means that we should expect one of them to win every 10 years. For the NFL as a whole, we should expect to see something like:

Every 1.9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 4 QB
Every 4 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 10 years the Super Bowl winner has a bottom half QB

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Brad Johnson
Ken Stabler
Joe Namath
Mark Rypien
Nick Foles
Jeff Hostettlet
Jim McMahon
Doug Williams

All very average QBs.

Joe Namath was absolutely not an average QB, he was probably the most talented QB of the 1960's. Knee issues destroyed his career, and he hung around to the point of being a liability, but he was an NFL MVP level player for a few years, even if his stats don't totally show it.

I would add Jim Plunkett to the list (Stabler was certainly better than Plunkett) and I think Stabler probably shouldn't be on the list.

It was also a different game when he played. So his output was average compared to today’s NFL.

But sure, I’ll concede he might be better than my list.

 

[Terpman22]

Brad Johnson
Ken Stabler
Joe Namath
Mark Rypien
Nick Foles
Jeff Hostettlet
Jim McMahon
Doug Williams

All very average QBs.

Joe Namath was absolutely not an average QB, he was probably the most talented QB of the 1960's. Knee issues destroyed his career, and he hung around to the point of being a liability, but he was an NFL MVP level player for a few years, even if his stats don't totally show it.

I would add Jim Plunkett to the list (Stabler was certainly better than Plunkett) and I think Stabler probably shouldn't be on the list.

Agree here. Its hard to look back and if you didn't watch football during those eras, to be able to truly judge how good a guy is off of his stats alone. You have to judge him across what he did, in his era and what his peers did. For Namath, it was competing against the likes of Len Dawson, Unitas and Bart Starr. Len Dawson led the league in completion % 8x yet only 2 of those seasons was it even above 60%. Not a whole lot of guys that were "obviously" more talented than Namath

And eras in the NFL apparently don't last that long these days, even 15 years ago the game is so totally different now with almost every single new rule designed to help the offense.

And I'm sure it seems like I'm bashing Aikman, but I mean, there were "quite a few guys better than him that probably would have also won 3 Super Bowls had they been on the Cowboys team instead of him, including guys like Moon, Kelly, Marino, Young, Favre and Elway.

Anyway, fun discussion, makes you want to look up the history of the NFL and thats always a good time for me.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Lots of things are *possible*, the question is how *likely* they are.

Just looking at which quarterbacks made it to the Super Bowl over the past 10-20 years, on average it looks like there is about

1 top 4 QB
0.5 QB5-8 (top 8 but not top 4)
0.25 QB9-16 (top half but not top 8)
0.25 QB17-32 (bottom half)

With 2 of 32 teams in the Super Bowl each year, on average a team should expect to make the Super Bowl every 16 years. But that changes to:

Every 4 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 8 years if you have top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 32 years if you have top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 64 years if you don't have a top half QB

Winning a Super Bowl will come about half as often as this, probably a bit less if you have a bad QB and a bit more if you have a top QB (since the team with the better QB is more often than not the favorite). So you should expect to win the Super Bowl perhaps

Every 7.5 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 16 years if you have a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 70 years if you have a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 160 years if you don't have a top half QB

There are way more teams with bottom half QBs than with top 4 QBs, so this also means we should expect to see:

Every 1.9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 4 QB
Every 4 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 10 years the Super Bowl winner has a bottom half QB

That’s a really cool breakdown. Thanks for taking the time.

 

[FairWarning]

Looking at the last 10 champs, only 2 qbs won in their prime - Mahomes twice, and R Wilson. Last year was an outlier where both qbs played great.

 

[efactor]

Jeff Hostettlet


All very average

​

Possibly the best coaching job ever. Parcells shortened the game so effectively, especially against the 49ers in the NFC championship game (and got the huge break when Roger Craig fumbled) where the 49ers were the much better team. Played good defense and Hostettler did just enough to get the wins. As a fan, definitely my most bitter game. Chance for a threepeat and to have such a great player as Craig fumble the game away was brutal. Marshall almost killed Montana and Steve Young comes in and hits Brent Jones for the first down that should have iced the game. Ouch.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Lots of things are *possible*, the question is how *likely* they are.

Just looking at which quarterbacks made it to the Super Bowl over the past 10-20 years, on average it looks like there is about

1 top 4 QB
0.5 QB5-8 (top 8 but not top 4)
0.25 QB9-16 (top half but not top 8)
0.25 QB17-32 (bottom half)

With 2 of 32 teams in the Super Bowl each year, on average a team should expect to make the Super Bowl every 16 years. But that changes to:

Every 4 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 8 years if you have top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 32 years if you have top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 64 years if you don't have a top half QB

Winning a Super Bowl will come about half as often as this, probably a bit less if you have a bad QB and a bit more if you have a top QB (since the team with the better QB is more often than not the favorite). So you should expect to win the Super Bowl perhaps

Every 7.5 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 16 years if you have a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 70 years if you have a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 160 years if you don't have a top half QB

Once every 160 years sounds pretty hopeless, but remember that half the league (16 teams) has a bottom half QB, which means that we should expect one of them to win every 10 years. For the NFL as a whole, we should expect to see something like:

Every 1.9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 4 QB
Every 4 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 10 years the Super Bowl winner has a bottom half QB

Thanks. When you say "top 4" what metric is that?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

I factor performance in big spots into the overall ranking. Do you not?

I'm not sure you do, because I feel like you've argued that Dak is a great QB despite him repeatedly failing in big spots. Can't have it both ways. If you're factoring performance in big spots into your overall ranking, he's not a very good QB at all.

Has Dak really been that bad in the playoffs? His cumulative playoff numbers are better than most modern QBs. 91.2 rating. 280yds/game, 2 TDs/game. Those are all in the top 20 all-time. Better than Brady, Hurts, Aikman, Flacco, Eli, Peyton, Big Ben, Favre.

He's lost 5 playoff games. In 3 of them, the team gave up 30+ points.

20-32, 266yds, 7.6ypa, 1 TD, 0 INT, 99.2 rating
24-38, 302yds, 7.9ypa, 3 TD, 1 INT, 103.2 rating

Those games were both losses.

Not that he's been particularly good, but there are a ton of QBs that have played far worse in the playoffs for their career and won Super Bowls.

 

[JohnnyU]

There is no QB in team

 

[ZWK]

Lots of things are *possible*, the question is how *likely* they are.

Just looking at which quarterbacks made it to the Super Bowl over the past 10-20 years, on average it looks like there is about

1 top 4 QB
0.5 QB5-8 (top 8 but not top 4)
0.25 QB9-16 (top half but not top 8)
0.25 QB17-32 (bottom half)

With 2 of 32 teams in the Super Bowl each year, on average a team should expect to make the Super Bowl every 16 years. But that changes to:

Every 4 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 8 years if you have top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 32 years if you have top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 64 years if you don't have a top half QB

Winning a Super Bowl will come about half as often as this, probably a bit less if you have a bad QB and a bit more if you have a top QB (since the team with the better QB is more often than not the favorite). So you should expect to win the Super Bowl perhaps

Every 7.5 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 16 years if you have a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 70 years if you have a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 160 years if you don't have a top half QB

Once every 160 years sounds pretty hopeless, but remember that half the league (16 teams) has a bottom half QB, which means that we should expect one of them to win every 10 years. For the NFL as a whole, we should expect to see something like:

Every 1.9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 4 QB
Every 4 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 10 years the Super Bowl winner has a bottom half QB

Thanks. When you say "top 4" what metric is that?

It's not a metric, just a question of whether he is one of the 4 best players in the NFL at the quarterback position. Where would he rank on a "QB Tiers" list?

For the numbers I have here, I just looked over the last 20 Super Bowl matchups and jotted down my impression of which bucket each QB fell into. Probably other people would disagree with some of my specific calls, but I figure that the basic shape should hold up pretty well.

One thing that might matter is that I didn't give much of a boost to guys who had a one-off career year that season. Even some MVP seasons got counted in my top 8 but not top 4 bucket. If you base it on how productive the QB was that season then it'd look even more top-heavy, but I think of those seasons as 'things came together just right around a good but not top-4 caliber QB, with great results'.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Lots of things are *possible*, the question is how *likely* they are.

Just looking at which quarterbacks made it to the Super Bowl over the past 10-20 years, on average it looks like there is about

1 top 4 QB
0.5 QB5-8 (top 8 but not top 4)
0.25 QB9-16 (top half but not top 8)
0.25 QB17-32 (bottom half)

With 2 of 32 teams in the Super Bowl each year, on average a team should expect to make the Super Bowl every 16 years. But that changes to:

Every 4 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 8 years if you have top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 32 years if you have top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 64 years if you don't have a top half QB

Winning a Super Bowl will come about half as often as this, probably a bit less if you have a bad QB and a bit more if you have a top QB (since the team with the better QB is more often than not the favorite). So you should expect to win the Super Bowl perhaps

Every 7.5 years if you have a top 4 QB
Every 16 years if you have a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 70 years if you have a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 160 years if you don't have a top half QB

Once every 160 years sounds pretty hopeless, but remember that half the league (16 teams) has a bottom half QB, which means that we should expect one of them to win every 10 years. For the NFL as a whole, we should expect to see something like:

Every 1.9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 4 QB
Every 4 years the Super Bowl winner has a top 8 (but not top 4) QB
Every 9 years the Super Bowl winner has a top half (but not top 8) QB
Every 10 years the Super Bowl winner has a bottom half QB

Thanks. When you say "top 4" what metric is that?

It's not a metric, just a question of whether he is one of the 4 best players in the NFL at the quarterback position. Where would he rank on a "QB Tiers" list?

For the numbers I have here, I just looked over the last 20 Super Bowl matchups and jotted down my impression of which bucket each QB fell into. Probably other people would disagree with some of my specific calls, but I figure that the basic shape should hold up pretty well.

One thing that might matter is that I didn't give much of a boost to guys who had a one-off career year that season. Even some MVP seasons got counted in my top 8 but not top 4 bucket. If you base it on how productive the QB was that season then it'd look even more top-heavy, but I think of those seasons as 'things came together just right around a good but not top-4 caliber QB, with great results'.

Thanks. So it's your opinion on the list?

When you say, "

Just looking at which quarterbacks made it to the Super Bowl over the past 10-20 years, on average it looks like there is about

1 top 4 QB
0.5 QB5-8 (top 8 but not top 4)
0.25 QB9-16 (top half but not top 8)
0.25 QB17-32 (bottom half)"

Was it 10 or 20 years? And again, this is how they rank on your personal ranking list?

Thanks.

 

[Joe Bryant]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

I factor performance in big spots into the overall ranking. Do you not?

I'm not sure you do, because I feel like you've argued that Dak is a great QB despite him repeatedly failing in big spots. Can't have it both ways. If you're factoring performance in big spots into your overall ranking, he's not a very good QB at all.

Has Dak really been that bad in the playoffs? His cumulative playoff numbers are better than most modern QBs. 91.2 rating. 280yds/game, 2 TDs/game. Those are all in the top 20 all-time. Better than Brady, Hurts, Aikman, Flacco, Eli, Peyton, Big Ben, Favre.

He's lost 5 playoff games. In 3 of them, the team gave up 30+ points.

20-32, 266yds, 7.6ypa, 1 TD, 0 INT, 99.2 rating
24-38, 302yds, 7.9ypa, 3 TD, 1 INT, 103.2 rating

Those games were both losses.

Not that he's been particularly good, but there are a ton of QBs that have played far worse in the playoffs for their career and won Super Bowls.

Please try to keep up. Everyone knows that every single loss is entirely Prescott's fault...

Joking.

 

[General Malaise]

You can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a mid QB if you have the right talent around them. We’ve seen this in the past.

What you can’t do is win a Super Bowl with a QB who, no matter how good they typically are, makes critical mistakes in big spots.

It’s not just about how good you are, it’s about whether you can be good (or maybe more accurately, not bad) when it matters. Some otherwise great QBs struggle with that.

Bingo. This is precisely the point some of us are trying to make about Dak.

Bingo? I factor performance in big spots into the overall ranking. Do you not?

If you factored that in, I'm not sure how you can believe Dak is good enough to win a Super Bowl. Mistakes in CRUCIAL spots at critical junctures in the biggest games is a reputation Dak has right now.