Scoresman
Footballguy
Let's have a thread on making our own projections.
How many of you do this? What stats/information do you use?
I like to make my own projections, not because I think I'm better at projecting than the experts, but because it really helps me get to know every player and not form biases, and all that. Plus, I'm a huge numbers/spreadsheet nerd so I love doing it.
Myself, I project players by projecting team offenses. I basically have a giant spreadsheet that has tabs for each team. I look at last year's stats, coaching tendencies/changes, OL stats, team defense changes and vegas props, all to project each team's passing/running offenses. I look at each team's total projected offense compared to last year and last three year average and make sure what I have makes sense.
Then I apply that to individual players based on things like career YPA/YPR/ADOT, etc. These player projections then are used to populate VBD cheat sheets.
I also compare my projections for each player to fantasypros expert consensus projections, not because I'm trying to match them but to see how much I differ from them. If I differ greatly, I need to have a good reason for it. Just a good check of everything.
How many of you do this? What stats/information do you use?
I like to make my own projections, not because I think I'm better at projecting than the experts, but because it really helps me get to know every player and not form biases, and all that. Plus, I'm a huge numbers/spreadsheet nerd so I love doing it.
Myself, I project players by projecting team offenses. I basically have a giant spreadsheet that has tabs for each team. I look at last year's stats, coaching tendencies/changes, OL stats, team defense changes and vegas props, all to project each team's passing/running offenses. I look at each team's total projected offense compared to last year and last three year average and make sure what I have makes sense.
Then I apply that to individual players based on things like career YPA/YPR/ADOT, etc. These player projections then are used to populate VBD cheat sheets.
I also compare my projections for each player to fantasypros expert consensus projections, not because I'm trying to match them but to see how much I differ from them. If I differ greatly, I need to have a good reason for it. Just a good check of everything.