Scoresman
Footballguy
Now that the draft is done, it's time to start work on projections. When doing projections, I look at teams holistically before diving into individual projections.
One interesting takeaway from last year was the historic low level of touchdowns, specifically passing touchdowns. Passing TDs leaguewide were down 10.3% from the previous three year average. That counts for 86 fewer TDs. There was not a corresponding dip in passing attempts (0.7% change from previous 3 years) and only a slight dip in passing yards (3.3%).
What was the reason for this, and will it continue?
Doing some research on the internet, there seems to be a few theories on what is going on:
1. Increased usage of "two-high" safety defense, which is implemented to prevent deep passing. It seems to be effective since average DOT has been going down recently. Last year DOT was about a yard less than average. Many coaches and QBs were quoted at various times last year saying this type of formation was frustrating because it prevented deep heaves and forced checkdowns and underneath passes.
2. Poor Offensive Line play. In doing research, it seems like a few people are blaming this on poor offensive line play for a lot of the usual top offenses, at least in the first half of the season. Have not yet looked at any numbers to back this up.
3. Aging star QBs. Brady and Rodgers were the last of a golden era of QBs and did not have great years. I'm not sure this would explain such a sudden drop. Maybe a lot of the next gen QBs like Hurts, Allen and Jackson being run heavy plays a part too.
4. Personnel shake-ups. There was a record tying 10 coaching changes in 2022. We saw a lot of top scoring offenses lose top receiving threats leaving for new teams.
Assuming some or all of these factors played a role, what does it mean for scoring in 2023? Of note, the last time we saw low scoring numbers like this was 2017, and then in 2018 scoring bounced back over 10% to normal levels again. Does that happen again here? Is this just a blip in the radar or will the low scoring continue until the NFL makes some rule changes to get it back up again?
I think this is a very important question to try to answer because it's potentially close to a 100 touchdown swing between this being a blip on the radar and projecting numbers to go back to normal, or projecting this downturn to stick around.
One interesting takeaway from last year was the historic low level of touchdowns, specifically passing touchdowns. Passing TDs leaguewide were down 10.3% from the previous three year average. That counts for 86 fewer TDs. There was not a corresponding dip in passing attempts (0.7% change from previous 3 years) and only a slight dip in passing yards (3.3%).
What was the reason for this, and will it continue?
Doing some research on the internet, there seems to be a few theories on what is going on:
1. Increased usage of "two-high" safety defense, which is implemented to prevent deep passing. It seems to be effective since average DOT has been going down recently. Last year DOT was about a yard less than average. Many coaches and QBs were quoted at various times last year saying this type of formation was frustrating because it prevented deep heaves and forced checkdowns and underneath passes.
2. Poor Offensive Line play. In doing research, it seems like a few people are blaming this on poor offensive line play for a lot of the usual top offenses, at least in the first half of the season. Have not yet looked at any numbers to back this up.
3. Aging star QBs. Brady and Rodgers were the last of a golden era of QBs and did not have great years. I'm not sure this would explain such a sudden drop. Maybe a lot of the next gen QBs like Hurts, Allen and Jackson being run heavy plays a part too.
4. Personnel shake-ups. There was a record tying 10 coaching changes in 2022. We saw a lot of top scoring offenses lose top receiving threats leaving for new teams.
Assuming some or all of these factors played a role, what does it mean for scoring in 2023? Of note, the last time we saw low scoring numbers like this was 2017, and then in 2018 scoring bounced back over 10% to normal levels again. Does that happen again here? Is this just a blip in the radar or will the low scoring continue until the NFL makes some rule changes to get it back up again?
I think this is a very important question to try to answer because it's potentially close to a 100 touchdown swing between this being a blip on the radar and projecting numbers to go back to normal, or projecting this downturn to stick around.
