No chance that it's overturned, or no chance that gays have a right to marriage?
Same Sex Marriage is a fundamental Constitutional right.
14th Amendment.
The methodology and legal logic behind that ruling is not on shaky ground. ( I could air hole the methodology of the 4 dissenters without breaking a sweat. )
Roe V Wade brings up the issue on if SCOTUS, given the time and place, was effectively legislating from the bench and overreaching it's base authority. I'd say "Yes" based on fundamental legal principles
but I'd still have just left it all alone.
A major issue people are going to avoid is that
SCOTUS will never rule in a manner that will create a public administration nightmare. Banning abortion outright is a massive legal, logistical, law enforcement, judicial, social, and economic nightmare. SCOTUS cannot hold the perception of it's authority and rule in manner that denies the practicality of functional governance. The overall cost to our society to outright ban abortion is staggering. There are things people are going to do and you can't stop it. Even the government can't stop it. Congress could start passing laws that says cigarettes are illegal to own and smoke and use. How is that going to actually work? It can't, just like Prohibition and the Volstead Act did not work when thrown against societies need for functional governance.
SCOTUS will never rule in a manner that has a cascading net negative economic/financial impact on American society at large. If the American economy collapses, there is no government, there is no law, there is no civil order. Banning abortion outright or any pathway as such has a massive economic cost to our Republic. You think the 2020 riots were bad? Imagine weaponized fringe extremist Pro Choice and Pro Life zealots going to war with each other on the open streets in public.
Overturning Roe V Wade is NOT banning abortion period. However that's going to be the PERCEPTION by the unimaginably large number of low information voters out there. And I'm going to be fair, the judicial system and the legal system in this country does not make it easy for the layman to understand so much "legalese" that gets pumped down at civilians to the law. Most lawyers I meet often forget they are often not always talking to other lawyers in the room. ( It usually comes from the narcissism)
Basic Covey principles -
First seek to understand, then be understood.
It doesn't matter what the legal reality is if a grossly large amount of the population will see it as an attack on all abortion period.
Basic Media Optics 101 - It doesn't matter what's on the package labeling if NO ONE BUYS THE PRODUCT.
If you can't sell something to the public at large, then the details don't matter. The same stupid approach where the radical left tried to explain that "Defund The Police" doesn't actually mean Defund The Police means absolutely nothing. It's an egregiously idiotic slogan and it had negative long term toxic blowback and cost voters up and down the ticket. In the exact same way, trying to push the truth that overturning Roe V Wade is NOT an outright ban on abortion period across the board but pushing those decisions to the respective states doesn't matter if if the narrative won't sell.
Basic Media Optics 102 - Truth matters sometimes, but PERCEPTION matters all the time, because it's PERCEPTION that kills.
I said this back when Texas passed it's 15 week abortion prohibition. I said I'm against vaccine mandates for COVID19. I.E. My Body/My Choice and Your Body/Your Choice. And that I would find it inconsistent to oppose vaccine mandates and talk about a person's right to their body and then oppose abortion and shift to "Well it is her body but I guess it's not her choice under this and that circumstance..."
I am not Pro Choice, I am Pro Responsibility. But if Pro Responsibility fails, then I take the stance that suits the clear Libertarian in me - She has to live with it, so if she's counted the cost or thought she did and has to live with it, then let her. I have enough problems and struggles of my own to worry about.
I will say this though, on the flip side, everyone here who is a radical leftist who is Pro Choice and Pro Mandate, I'd honestly just laugh in your face if I met you in real life. Everyone can have their free speech but I want to be consistent, and I'll just laugh at anyone who screams My Body/My Choice when it fits their tribalism and then push Your Body/But Not Your Choice later to keep feeding their tribalist rage.
I also find it idiotic that the radical left and the activist complicit MSM are now calling women as "women" No more, "I can't really define what a woman really is or means.... I just can't....I don't know...." Again, be consistent or just admit you don't have any integrity. You can't pretend to not be able to define what a "woman" is or means but then magically it all fixes itself when it's time to try to hunt down more Conservatives and Republicans.
So, no, no one is taking Same Sex Marriage away from any Americans and not taking it away from any of you if that applies.
From a pure political strategy standpoint, and I'm not discounting anyone's personal religion or their own experiences that makes them Pro Life, if that's how you feel and that's what you want, I understand that, and I'm not trying to take that from you, but again from looking at practical methodology to get votes and retain votes, this issue is NOT the hill to die on for Conservatives and/or Republicans. Yes, Mid Term elections are "base elections" But just kick the can down the road. Politically this is a losing battle for Republicans and Conservatives. You want to dangle enough to keep single issue Pro Life voters in line and in tow, but never so far that you incite the moderates and independents and the growing block of undecideds who formulate the critical "late stage" voters.
The GOP needs to understand the wars that can't be won because they are unwinnable.
That Susan Rice unloaded this now shows how desperate the Obama/Biden/Harris/Rice regime has become. It has diminishing value in the 2024 general cycle and even the loss of some suburban women won't offset the massive defection of working class minority voters.
I find it tragic when I see radical leftists pile on and dogmatically repeat cheap shock marketing based social media outrage without any practical context. It's volunteering to be cannon fodder when the establishment emocrats need woke shock troopers to get chewed up by the grinder. No one is holding a gun to anyone's head and forcing them to remain a low information voter. Some of you want better answers? Put in the effort to understand the 14th Amendment and they'll start to reveal themselves to you.
