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The (new) urbanist, traditional walkable neighborhood, TOD & Place-Based Econ Dev thread: Off to APA then LOCUS - next month CNU (1 Viewer)

There is no one prescriptive answer, but my recommendation is think big... comprehensive and large scale development can tackle more global (neighborhood wide) issues than ad hoc one building at a time development. 

For one, the profit and tax revenue pie is bigger.  Second, by planning and developing an entire district, you can then build in affordable units in each building, eliminating the creation of "ghettos" of concentrated poverty... it then provides more cultural and economic access to those of lesser means as well.  In addition, if you are doing a wider scale development, a piece of each building's profit (public and private sector) can be shaved off to build amenities, parks, infrastructure (sewer, roads, train platforms) which in turn create far more value than the cost of investing in the real estate itself. This process is called "value capture" and is representative of the specific exercise / strategic consulting gig I am involved with on the Chapel Hill to Durham light rail line... finding ways for development to (1) help pay for the transit line itself (2) help pay for associated local infrastructure such as platforms, parking structures, walking and biking trails and (3) provide mechanisms to create more affordable housing.

Ideally, by using future profits to finance investments today, you then create a more socially integrated and equitable environment that results in a virtuous cycle of economic growth, less crime (though better placemaking along with provision of better housing and creation of economic opportunity) and overall improvement to quality of life across economic and social lines. 
Interesting. Thanks for the perspective.  There is a large parcel of land (77 acres) being sold in my town by the United Methodist Church (link:  http://atlanta.curbed.com/2017/1/19/14320734/decatur-property-sale-united-methodist-childrens-home) that will eventually be developed by someone.  A "district" would be an interesting idea but would potentially create several other problems such as traffic, as well as the challenge of trying to capture at least some of existing architecture and character of the neighborhood.   Would love to know more detail about this concept. Any reading you might recommend? 

 
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Interesting. Thanks for the perspective.  There is a large parcel of land (77 acres) being sold in my town by the United Methodist Church (link:  http://atlanta.curbed.com/2017/1/19/14320734/decatur-property-sale-united-methodist-childrens-home) that will eventually be developed by someone.  A "district" would be an interesting idea but would potentially create several other problems such as traffic, as well as the challenge of trying to capture at least some of existing architecture and character of the neighborhood.   Would love to know more detail about this concept. Any reading you might recommend? 
I'll have to think about books - there are a number that come to mind off the top of my head Jane Jacobs life and death of american cities is a great starter that still reverberates today, 50+ years after it was written. While he is way too high on himself, Jeff Speck's book Walkable City would provide insight, and he is a talented and smart guy. Jan Gehl's Cities for People is very highly regarded. One of my favs is "The High Cost of Free Parking" which singles in on one issue, but a major contributing factor to the construction of places that work for cars, don't work for people and end up draining municipal coffers without folks understanding what is happening.  Could also check out Richard Florida's work, "Who's your City" which takes a more social perspective - Florida is the one that forwarded the term the "Creative Class" as the knowledge workforce began to change the demands on how and where we live and work.

Finally, Retrofitting Suburbia by Ellen Dunham-Jones and June Williamson is a good read... and I was actually interviewed for a small portion of the book for one of our first efforts into what is called Crowdsourced Placemaking, which is a social networking/grass roots approach to comprehensive public engagement. 

 
I'd love to hear your thoughts on a depression of suburban housing prices as boomers are looking to downsize, but Millennials are looking to be more downtown.

I have some real concerns with the suburban market taking another dip in the near future (5 - 10 years), especially on the coasts and around mid and major metro areas.
Context and specific location are so important.

What has happened since the recession is further out suburbs have, generally speaking, been hit the hardest.  Their value dropped the most and, generally speaking, has rebounded the least.  Basically, people found a home far enough away from the main employment center that it was now affordable...

except affordability is not just about your house/apartment... it's about the cost of housing PLUS transportation.  

As such, when gas prices spiked and everyone was driving 75+ miles to work in their huge SUV's things got tight. Add in an adjustable rate mortgage and you see a recipe for disaster.

There is an opportunity for forward thinking suburbs to find ways to build up their existing and new downtowns / mixed-use centers, while simultaneously addressing mobility through the provision of light rail, street car, bus rapid transit and ensuring that higher density development occurs around the stations.  That said, some burbs, especially those that don't adjust, are going to be left in the cold by the market.  

Close in suburbs like Nassau County New York will do fine, although even they are urbanizing with focal points around transit.  As you get more than 1:15 min out though, some places will struggle to compete moving forward in many cases. Automation will help decrease the time for travelling distance, which could end up creating an interesting investment platform for further out burbs that become more depressed, but within regions that do invest in downtowns and mobility choices, as they could fit the mold of what first and second ring connected by transit suburbs did in the early part of the second half of last century. 

 
Context and specific location are so important.

What has happened since the recession is further out suburbs have, generally speaking, been hit the hardest.  Their value dropped the most and, generally speaking, has rebounded the least.  Basically, people found a home far enough away from the main employment center that it was now affordable...

except affordability is not just about your house/apartment... it's about the cost of housing PLUS transportation.  

As such, when gas prices spiked and everyone was driving 75+ miles to work in their huge SUV's things got tight. Add in an adjustable rate mortgage and you see a recipe for disaster.

There is an opportunity for forward thinking suburbs to find ways to build up their existing and new downtowns / mixed-use centers, while simultaneously addressing mobility through the provision of light rail, street car, bus rapid transit and ensuring that higher density development occurs around the stations.  That said, some burbs, especially those that don't adjust, are going to be left in the cold by the market.  

Close in suburbs like Nassau County New York will do fine, although even they are urbanizing with focal points around transit.  As you get more than 1:15 min out though, some places will struggle to compete moving forward in many cases. Automation will help decrease the time for travelling distance, which could end up creating an interesting investment platform for further out burbs that become more depressed, but within regions that do invest in downtowns and mobility choices, as they could fit the mold of what first and second ring connected by transit suburbs did in the early part of the second half of last century. 
Am I overthinking then?  I actually live in a suburb that I don't think will go down substantially as it is one of the nicer neighborhoods in the area, but as an overall trend I'm worried about it.

 
Am I overthinking then?  I actually live in a suburb that I don't think will go down substantially as it is one of the nicer neighborhoods in the area, but as an overall trend I'm worried about it.
Well designed suburbs, especially those with good access to major urban cores and employment centers will do fine... if not better than fine. 

The reality is, there will likely always be more demand for suburban living than urban... it's just we provided SO little urban living choices while simultaneously disinvesting in urban environments that tremendous pent up demand was created.  In the suburbs, that is accentuated by anti-growth and anti-urban folks who fear this will destroy the neighborhood fabric, resulting in even less product while demand continued to grow. 

As such, most of the growth in this nation will still be in suburbia... but again, a different suburbia and one that has much of that new growth focused on more dense, walkable nodes that provide a little taste of urban life in less dense suburban regions.  In this way, prices for single family homes in nice neighborhoods with good schools that ALSO have proximity to mixed-use downtown type environments (and even more benefit if transit is an option as well) could become true winners... you can't build many more single family homes in inner ring nice suburbs... just no more land. That constrained supply, in well situated locations, will drive prices up... especially as the largest generation EVER is now entering the period of their lives where no matter how much they like city living, having 2-4 kids running around an apartment just won't do for all but the truest urbanite. 

If you don't mind sharing the area you are in, I'll be happy to give you my take - although real estate is such a hyper local and context sensitive industry, I may tell you that I don't really know!

 
Well designed suburbs, especially those with good access to major urban cores and employment centers will do fine... if not better than fine. 

The reality is, there will likely always be more demand for suburban living than urban... it's just we provided SO little urban living choices while simultaneously disinvesting in urban environments that tremendous pent up demand was created.  In the suburbs, that is accentuated by anti-growth and anti-urban folks who fear this will destroy the neighborhood fabric, resulting in even less product while demand continued to grow. 

As such, most of the growth in this nation will still be in suburbia... but again, a different suburbia and one that has much of that new growth focused on more dense, walkable nodes that provide a little taste of urban life in less dense suburban regions.  In this way, prices for single family homes in nice neighborhoods with good schools that ALSO have proximity to mixed-use downtown type environments (and even more benefit if transit is an option as well) could become true winners... you can't build many more single family homes in inner ring nice suburbs... just no more land. That constrained supply, in well situated locations, will drive prices up... especially as the largest generation EVER is now entering the period of their lives where no matter how much they like city living, having 2-4 kids running around an apartment just won't do for all but the truest urbanite. 

If you don't mind sharing the area you are in, I'll be happy to give you my take - although real estate is such a hyper local and context sensitive industry, I may tell you that I don't really know!
I live in Leesburg, VA.  Being in the DC area will always insulate me from too much downturn, but I'm farther out then I'd like to be.

 
Read about edge cities - these are essentially super suburbs with at least as many jobs as residents. IMHO (and I will defer to Koya) edge Cities will fare much better than far flung bedroom communities. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edge_city

Has five million or more square feet (465,000 m²) of leasable office space.

Has 600,000 square feet (56,000 m²) or more of leasable retail space.

Has more jobs than bedrooms.

Is perceived by the population as one place.

Was nothing like a "city" as recently as 30 years ago. Then it was just bedrooms, if not cow pastures."[2]
 
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I live in Leesburg, VA.  Being in the DC area will always insulate me from too much downturn, but I'm farther out then I'd like to be.
Without knowing much detail, you should be well within the gravity of good economics moving forward... and the automation concept will only boost that looking a couple decades forward, imo.  If you are close to rail into DC, all the moreso. 

 
Read about edge cities - these are essentially super suburbs with at least as many jobs as residents. IMHO (and I will defer to Koya) edge Cities will fare much better than far flung bedroom communities. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edge_city
The reason edge cities will (in some cases) flourish, is two fold.

First, there is a ton of economic activity there for a reason (proximate to key metro centers and other factors in their favor).  

Second, they often have a mix of uses, the problem with Edge Cities is they are usually auto-dominated ... think class A office building park with buildings surrounded by pools of parking, each disconnected from one another... but at the other edge of the office park you have restaurants, maybe retail in a strip or power center format. There is enough economic activity to have malls - the largest and more high end of which are doing well, the mid size and smaller, not so much. 

But all of those uses can be reconfigured... it's actually one of the books I listed about and its called "suburban retrofit" - a major component of my work, actually.  So, a dying mall might have its center cut our and daylighted for an outdoor pedestrian shopping experience while they add condos and apartments creating a sorta downtown like environment.  Office parks will be repositioned and redeveloped as the sea of asphalt for parking is reworked into dense, mixed-use and multi use buildings within a walkable setting - with parking being provided in structures (because auto's will still be the primary mode for most people, just not as overarching as it is today).  Often these edge cities have transit options as well.

I'm working with GWU's real estate school with a gentleman who is a Brookings fellow on some research (well, they do the research, I've helped them with their New York ground testing for their results and will do the same in Dallas, and I've helped sponsor the program through former company along with promote it during my speeches and panelist opportunities).  

That research shows significant additional economic value (and also now social equity because transportation costs are reduced and access to employment and upward mobility increased) for walkable urban places... again, morseso with transit, but not transit dependent.  That research shows that about 1-2% of a region's land mass is dense urban, called Walkable Urban (think major city core and large urbanized centers), about 3-5% are walkable communities (local serving and some regional serving downtown type environments).  About 2-3% of the land mass are Edge Cities... and 90%+ is driveable, low density, single use suburban.

Most of the growth and economic development will take place in the growing walkable urban communities and by converting edge cities into walkable neighborhoods and, for larger centers, potentially true Walkbale Urban Places.  The idea is we need to move some of the 90% into the walkable neighborhood, smaller scale mixed-use urban fabric and we need to move the Edge Cities into true Walkable Places.

You can check out a bunch of that research, including reports showing how companies are now moving from the suburbs to walkable urban places, here.

 
 I so wish I went to school for this.  The stuff fascinates me.
School shmool.

I have a lib arts degree in government, with a focus on political theory.  Ended up starting a couple businesses rather than get an MBA... after one failed (or was failing), I transitioned it and one of my clients was a developer doing a large project in my community... from then I was hired full time and learned as I went.  

Not only that, but my background is communications and my focus public engagement while working for a developer.  I was just fortunate enough that the developer was well attuned to new urbanism and mixed-use (a by myopic in that he believes EVERY place must be a walkable downtown type thing, but he's also a raging narcissist) so learned by hiring the worlds best in class urban planners, market analysts, infrastructure and policy folks all down the line. 

Also, google "Tactical Urbanism" - it's how to create implementable transformation at the citizen level and has some really great concepts.  

 
School shmool.

I have a lib arts degree in government, with a focus on political theory.  Ended up starting a couple businesses rather than get an MBA... after one failed (or was failing), I transitioned it and one of my clients was a developer doing a large project in my community... from then I was hired full time and learned as I went.  

Not only that, but my background is communications and my focus public engagement while working for a developer.  I was just fortunate enough that the developer was well attuned to new urbanism and mixed-use (a by myopic in that he believes EVERY place must be a walkable downtown type thing, but he's also a raging narcissist) so learned by hiring the worlds best in class urban planners, market analysts, infrastructure and policy folks all down the line. 

Also, google "Tactical Urbanism" - it's how to create implementable transformation at the citizen level and has some really great concepts.  
Agreed.  I have a degree in Geography (Urban Planning) and have really only about 9 months of actual "planning" experience (working for a County planning dept. back in the mid-90's).  I off-shot into third-party due diligence for investors in the late 90's and part of me wishes I had stuck to the "planning" side of things.  Love the new urbanist angle and wish more developers would spend the time to actually "plan" things rather than just look at IRRs.  

 
Read about edge cities - these are essentially super suburbs with at least as many jobs as residents. IMHO (and I will defer to Koya) edge Cities will fare much better than far flung bedroom communities. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edge_city
As the Wikipedia page talks about, Tysons Corner is the classic Edge City. It's in the beginning stages of what is probably the largest redevelopment effort in the country. It's the 12th largest employment center in the country but not many people live there. By 2050, they're looking to go from about 20,000 residents to 100,000 and 100,000 employees to about 200,000. Four Metro stations opened a couple years ago (unfortunately all above ground) and there are cranes everywhere. It's funny how many people think the new Silver Line is about Dulles Airport. It's not. It's about Tysons and just makes sense to continue it out to Dulles.

A street grid will be created. It seems, though, that the two major roads (routes 7 and 123) will remain as wide, high speed roads that aren't pedestrian friendly. It will be very interesting to see how well this works. The local government is determined to make Tysons the "downtown" of Fairfax County.

 
As the Wikipedia page talks about, Tysons Corner is the classic Edge City. It's in the beginning stages of what is probably the largest redevelopment effort in the country. It's the 12th largest employment center in the country but not many people live there. By 2050, they're looking to go from about 20,000 residents to 100,000 and 100,000 employees to about 200,000. Four Metro stations opened a couple years ago (unfortunately all above ground) and there are cranes everywhere. It's funny how many people think the new Silver Line is about Dulles Airport. It's not. It's about Tysons and just makes sense to continue it out to Dulles.

A street grid will be created. It seems, though, that the two major roads (routes 7 and 123) will remain as wide, high speed roads that aren't pedestrian friendly. It will be very interesting to see how well this works. The local government is determined to make Tysons the "downtown" of Fairfax County.
Interesting. I was down there for work a couple months ago, finished up dinner with some co-workers at the mall, and wanted to go back to a bar I had been at the night before. I could literally see the building I wanted to go to but had no idea how I could walk there. Ended up getting an Uber and it took me about 8 minutes to get there with no traffic. 

 
As the Wikipedia page talks about, Tysons Corner is the classic Edge City. It's in the beginning stages of what is probably the largest redevelopment effort in the country. It's the 12th largest employment center in the country but not many people live there. By 2050, they're looking to go from about 20,000 residents to 100,000 and 100,000 employees to about 200,000. Four Metro stations opened a couple years ago (unfortunately all above ground) and there are cranes everywhere. It's funny how many people think the new Silver Line is about Dulles Airport. It's not. It's about Tysons and just makes sense to continue it out to Dulles.

A street grid will be created. It seems, though, that the two major roads (routes 7 and 123) will remain as wide, high speed roads that aren't pedestrian friendly. It will be very interesting to see how well this works. The local government is determined to make Tysons the "downtown" of Fairfax County.
I wanted to get to this last week, but was in the midst of successfully parlaying my client into a new business opportunity (updates to Dallas thread coming!)

Tyson's is the largest example that I know of for a "suburban retrofit" - it's also the classic edge city, as you state.  All the uses, a lot of them, but generally in single use buildings surrounding by parking with an environment built for the car and the road, not for people. 

I'm sure there are folks I know who are involved, and if I see them at the upcoming conferences (Congress for the New Urbanism, Urban Land Institute and American Planning Association all have spring meetings) I'll ask. 

That said, Tyson's is also a prime example of the economic benefits of walkable urbanism, and Northern Virginia, Arlington County in particular, are highlighted as one of the most progressive and successful regions in transforming from exclusively suburban sprawl to a more measured mix of drivable suburban and walkable urban places.  The Wake-Up Walk-Up reports I mentioned before that detailed the economics used Tyson as part of the example:

Places like Tyson, which used to be the trophy suburban corporate office headquarter example, were getting the LOWEST price per square foot as compared with areas like Clarendon and Rosslyn (may be mispelling) , and completely unable to compete with the re-invigorated urban places that have grown within DC proper over the past 15 years to become one of America's most walkable Cities and metros. Now, places like Tyson have to literally become the opposite of what they were to compete to accommodate the still growing market and huge unmet demand for walkable living, working and playing environments.

 
Interesting. I was down there for work a couple months ago, finished up dinner with some co-workers at the mall, and wanted to go back to a bar I had been at the night before. I could literally see the building I wanted to go to but had no idea how I could walk there. Ended up getting an Uber and it took me about 8 minutes to get there with no traffic. 
The spatial inefficiency of today's suburban road networks are BRUTAL.  They quite literally kill the place.  

Same is true in many suburban single family home neighborhoods... homes that share a backyard could very well be a 5-10 min drive from each other.  That kills community.  It's a part of our self segregation and bubbles that disrupt the political threads, because we are physically disconnected in suburbia except for where we choose to meet, generally people "like us" (same school, church, cycling group whatever) and the random interaction that happens between people both alike and unlike - of different ethnic and cultural backgrounds and the full range of economic spectrum.  Again, you don't need a big city to accomplish that, a small town main street can serve the same purpose, scaled appropriately for a less populated area.

 
That said, Tyson's is also a prime example of the economic benefits of walkable urbanism, and Northern Virginia, Arlington County in particular, are highlighted as one of the most progressive and successful regions in transforming from exclusively suburban sprawl to a more measured mix of drivable suburban and walkable urban places.  The Wake-Up Walk-Up reports I mentioned before that detailed the economics used Tyson as part of the example:

Places like Tyson, which used to be the trophy suburban corporate office headquarter example, were getting the LOWEST price per square foot as compared with areas like Clarendon and Rosslyn (may be mispelling) , and completely unable to compete with the re-invigorated urban places that have grown within DC proper over the past 15 years to become one of America's most walkable Cities and metros. Now, places like Tyson have to literally become the opposite of what they were to compete to accommodate the still growing market and huge unmet demand for walkable living, working and playing environments.
Thoughts on the Silver Line being above ground (mostly elevated) in Tysons? The Rosslyn-Ballston corridor is all underground and I hear people claim that it was a big mistake to put Tysons above ground. Obviously there are plenty of examples (Chicago, New York) that have urban neighborhoods around above ground lines, but Tysons won't be developing right next to the stations because of the width of the roads.

Since the local airport authority was footing the majority of the bill, it makes sense that they didn't want to put in billions more to go underneath Tysons and get away from the running along the main roads. Similarly, it's kind of annoying that the Silver Line won't go to Reston Town Center since it will stay in the middle of the toll road. But, again, probably a lot of extra cost to detour and go underground.

 
Thoughts on the Silver Line being above ground (mostly elevated) in Tysons? The Rosslyn-Ballston corridor is all underground and I hear people claim that it was a big mistake to put Tysons above ground. Obviously there are plenty of examples (Chicago, New York) that have urban neighborhoods around above ground lines, but Tysons won't be developing right next to the stations because of the width of the roads.

Since the local airport authority was footing the majority of the bill, it makes sense that they didn't want to put in billions more to go underneath Tysons and get away from the running along the main roads. Similarly, it's kind of annoying that the Silver Line won't go to Reston Town Center since it will stay in the middle of the toll road. But, again, probably a lot of extra cost to detour and go underground.
The scuttlebutt i heard was it could have been done underground for about the same $ had they used a European contractor that does this kind of thing routinely. This could just be :tinfoilhat:  

With it above ground, you say goodbye to any major road widening/realignment etc in & around Tysons. They could have built a Toronto/Crystal City type deal but the short term interests won out.  Maintenance on underground sections is a lot less $. Also they could have built a 3rd track so they could have one track down for maintenance without resorting to single tracking. A 3rd line above ground was never going to be an option. 

 
Thoughts on the Silver Line being above ground (mostly elevated) in Tysons? The Rosslyn-Ballston corridor is all underground and I hear people claim that it was a big mistake to put Tysons above ground. Obviously there are plenty of examples (Chicago, New York) that have urban neighborhoods around above ground lines, but Tysons won't be developing right next to the stations because of the width of the roads.

Since the local airport authority was footing the majority of the bill, it makes sense that they didn't want to put in billions more to go underneath Tysons and get away from the running along the main roads. Similarly, it's kind of annoying that the Silver Line won't go to Reston Town Center since it will stay in the middle of the toll road. But, again, probably a lot of extra cost to detour and go underground.
Without knowing the context, especially the land uses and configuration at and around the station, it's hard to say. The ideal situation is at ground level - you walk out to a plaza or entrance that has some retail, connected to office and/or residential above.  After that, best is underground as you don't have to screw up the physical landscape for protruding and rising infrastructure, but its a freakin' fortune.  In this instance, it may have been the best possible choice.

That said, with the huge gravity of Tyson's, I'd expect it to be a roaring success if the land use strategies and product mix are right, and I'd wager they are likely close with a project of that magnitude.  Since it's such a huge employment center, people should be willing to walk from the elevated platform to work, if the proper pedestrian connections work.  

We are facing some similar issues in our Chapel Hill to Durham light rail - a couple stations need to be elevated for a number of reasons - just physical and land use constraints that simply prohibit a realistic approach at ground level (and underground is not an option there, at all).  That said, a well done elevated station with proper connections and wayfair signage doesn't have to be the worst thing in the world. 

 
The scuttlebutt i heard was it could have been done underground for about the same $ had they used a European contractor that does this kind of thing routinely. This could just be :tinfoilhat:  

With it above ground, you say goodbye to any major road widening/realignment etc in & around Tysons. They could have built a Toronto/Crystal City type deal but the short term interests won out.  Maintenance on underground sections is a lot less $. Also they could have built a 3rd track so they could have one track down for maintenance without resorting to single tracking. A 3rd line above ground was never going to be an option. 
From what you state, it sounds like this would have been a good candidate to find an underground solution - the level of economic activity at and around the station would definitely warrant it... but Politics and politics do get in the way. 

I also agree that whenever you can find room for a third track, especially in a congested/busy and growing region, it's a very wise move. 

 
LOL @ this monstrosity nestled in a business park right off a major commuter route  in the burbs

http://www.hanovershadygrove.com/

My office overlooks the scenic parking garage while coworkers' offices have a lovely view of the "luxury apartments" at what appears to be about 20 yards from their windows. 

 
My brothers a town planner in Ct.  He's always talking about this kinda crap, lol.  As long as strip malls start to disappear, I'm in.

 
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How can ridership support the costs to build and run such a thing.  Traffic isn't awesome in Clearwater, but the density is still relatively low compared to other places.
They have Xenu money in Clearwater.  They can build NASA gondolas if they want.

 
Context and specific location are so important.

What has happened since the recession is further out suburbs have, generally speaking, been hit the hardest.  Their value dropped the most and, generally speaking, has rebounded the least.  Basically, people found a home far enough away from the main employment center that it was now affordable...

except affordability is not just about your house/apartment... it's about the cost of housing PLUS transportation.  

As such, when gas prices spiked and everyone was driving 75+ miles to work in their huge SUV's things got tight. Add in an adjustable rate mortgage and you see a recipe for disaster.

There is an opportunity for forward thinking suburbs to find ways to build up their existing and new downtowns / mixed-use centers, while simultaneously addressing mobility through the provision of light rail, street car, bus rapid transit and ensuring that higher density development occurs around the stations.  That said, some burbs, especially those that don't adjust, are going to be left in the cold by the market.  

Close in suburbs like Nassau County New York will do fine, although even they are urbanizing with focal points around transit.  As you get more than 1:15 min out though, some places will struggle to compete moving forward in many cases. Automation will help decrease the time for travelling distance, which could end up creating an interesting investment platform for further out burbs that become more depressed, but within regions that do invest in downtowns and mobility choices, as they could fit the mold of what first and second ring connected by transit suburbs did in the early part of the second half of last century. 
@Koya Appreciate your take on things. I know we've had good discussions in the past, esp about Long Island. 

But a lot of this is hitting home, man I am so sick of long island and the reliance on cars to go anywhere. I live in Suffolk (which is just outside of Nassau that Koya references) and I can't really see a way for this place to be less dependent on car traffic. Its too dense yet spread out at the same time. And I see 1st hand the McMansion issue you talk about. The odd sprawl that happened 10+ years ago is obscene and when we flirted with selling and moving locally, it was astounding to track the market with some of these properties. My SIL has a $750k house in the middle of Ronkonkoma that is pretty much worthless (based on what they paid/owe still). 

Either way, seeing some of these smaller pocket communities people post makes me wish to get off this damn rock. My neighborhood is so unfriendly and everyone keeps to themselves (lots of age disparity issues), and I'd love to look to res on biking more, but the weather cycles don't make it feasible. 

regardless...its enjoyable to listen to the conversation. 

 
My brothers a town planner in Ct.  He's always talking about this kinda crap, lol.  As long as strip malls start to disappear, I'm in.
can't like this enough. 

We have a main road that is all strip malls. Nothing matches, no planning was involved in their placement and in/out of parking, esthetics are for ####. . And there is a small lot that has a few trees and some low brush and they are trying to put 'something' there. I'm fighting it all i can just so I can have SOME greenery on the 4-5 mile long stretch of nothing but signs, 'sale' banners and sloppy strip malls. 

 
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@Koya Appreciate your take on things. I know we've had good discussions in the past, esp about Long Island. 

But a lot of this is hitting home, man I am so sick of long island and the reliance on cars to go anywhere. I live in Suffolk (which is just outside of Nassau that Koya references) and I can't really see a way for this place to be less dependent on car traffic. Its too dense yet spread out at the same time. And I see 1st hand the McMansion issue you talk about. The odd sprawl that happened 10+ years ago is obscene and when we flirted with selling and moving locally, it was astounding to track the market with some of these properties. My SIL has a $750k house in the middle of Ronkonkoma that is pretty much worthless (based on what they paid/owe still). 

Either way, seeing some of these smaller pocket communities people post makes me wish to get off this damn rock. My neighborhood is so unfriendly and everyone keeps to themselves (lots of age disparity issues), and I'd love to look to res on biking more, but the weather cycles don't make it feasible. 

regardless...its enjoyable to listen to the conversation. 
You point out some of the major social issues with suburbia - and if people think that the physical disconnection and subsequent disintegration of our social and community fabric as a result is not a factor in today's divided political and ideological climate, then they don't understand the impacts of spatial inefficiencies and loss of communal gathering space.

My frustration was not only in living there, but the ridiculously onerous regulatory climate... I don't mind high cost areas nor stringent regulations - but the lack of clarity, overlapping and conflicting jurisdictions and respective agendas and overall lack of municipal will makes getting even the best projects out of the ground nearly impossible. Hence, my "I moved to Dallas!" thread...

an area that 10 years ago had NOTHING but sprawl and now has a full range of truly urban, downtown and urban/suburban walkable environments, some of which are very transit oriented in nature as well. 

 
http://www.beachtran.com/index.html

They want to put this in Clearwater.  Seems cool.  I'd support some cool new technology like this over some antiquated LSR, that interfere with traffic.
Interesting.  Love the concept. though there are often issues with both raised forms of transit (although for the proper use, it's more than workable and sometimes the best solution) and also maglev... maglev becomes very expensive for service and maintenance as I understand and it's usually best to use existing light rail technologies. As one of my clients who leads a fairly forward thinking transit agency (one looking at light rail, fwiw) says... the best use for maglev technology to date has been for roller coasters. It's great to get you going from stop to super fast really quickly and safely, but for a variety of reasons there are hurdles for general implementation.  

That said, we need more private sector solutions - transit used to be almost entirely private sector. Essentially rail lines built by developers to get people to their new great piece of land. That is how Los Angeles started its march to become the city with the most lines of rail/streetcar... IN THE WORLD.  Before they ripped 95% of those rails up.

 
LOL @ this monstrosity nestled in a business park right off a major commuter route  in the burbs

http://www.hanovershadygrove.com/

My office overlooks the scenic parking garage while coworkers' offices have a lovely view of the "luxury apartments" at what appears to be about 20 yards from their windows. 
I'd need to see more context, but from the link it appears a decent enough multifamily building. :shrug:  

 
My brothers a town planner in Ct.  He's always talking about this kinda crap, lol.  As long as strip malls start to disappear, I'm in.
They are disappearing.  For a number of reasons, retail footprints are shrinking... both the size of individual stores and number of outlets/centers.  

The biggest losers are middle market malls... dying a slow but accelerating death; and regional serving strip centers/power centers.  Small local neighborhood strips will survive and possibly thrive (though they must be more acclimated for pedestrian and bike use and have a relationship with adjacent properties and the sidewalk, but just parking lots with an ugly set of stores in the middle / back) and, in fact, there is a need for the "corner store" to come back in many residential neighborhoods, so you don't HAVE to drive 3, 5, 10 miles to get even the very basics in a pinch.  

What Town does he work for? We do a good amount of Town planning at my new gig, though have gotten away from most traditional comprehensive plan type work (for usually more interesting and complex strategy work)

 
https://streets.mn/2017/03/09/five-reasons-to-love-saint-pauls-ford-site-plans/

St Paul MN has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to plan a large neighborhood from scratch. Ford had a production plant on the Mississippi River since the 1940s. It's shut down and the company is cleaning it up and there will be 150 clean acres of development. And it looks like they're going to do it right. 

Edit @Koya interested to hear your take on this. 

 
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When I used DC Metro for work for a couple years, I liked the Transit app. Today, I just stumbled across this: https://gis.wmata.com/metrotrain/index.html. That's pretty freakin' awesome. My first thought was, "This should be an app." Then I found this: https://www.dcmetrohero.com/realtime-map. It doesn't look as nice as the WMATA one, but I read that they have an android app for their map. I don't have android so I'm not sure how that looks/works.

High frequency, or lead headways, reduce the need to know when another train/bus is coming. But, since almost nothing in the US has high enough frequencies to eliminate the worry of timing things right to catch a train, technology like this seems like the way to go to help people schedule their commute or errands.

 
https://streets.mn/2017/03/09/five-reasons-to-love-saint-pauls-ford-site-plans/

St Paul MN has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to plan a large neighborhood from scratch. Ford had a production plant on the Mississippi River since the 1940s. It's shut down and the company is cleaning it up and there will be 150 clean acres of development. And it looks like they're going to do it right. 

Edit @Koya interested to hear your take on this. 
Generally they touch upon almost every principle for which I stand in regard to responsible development of walkable environments.  Now, I don't know nearly enough about the site, the P/politics and the fine grain details of the market, but my two big questions would be:

1. Why are they limiting themselves to ten stories? Seems there may be an opportunity for at least one or two truly significant taller buildings which can serve as a mixed of uses on its own such as a high end hotel, condo/high end rentals, retail, some meeting space and entertainment. 

2. While I am a huge believer in residential density, it almost appears that there is not enough retail here... now, perhaps the idea is to drive retail into existing and perhaps underperforming adjacent neighborhoods - and I do see a lot of focus on connectivity to/from the site, and intermodal options as well.  But it still strikes me that only one small component of this overall plan seems to be a truly active, vibrant mixed-use neighborhood with significant street level activation via retail.

I wonder if both of the above are a result of a municipal-led planning initiative, which can often fall into the pitfalls of not truly understanding how the market works and the levers by which private development and subsequent users succeed.  For example, a developer may know that its a political lift with a need to move the needle with the community for going to say 15 or 20 stories... but that such an effort is worth the money, time and brain damage to either make it all work or, more likely in this case, have that much more successful and economically resilient a project moving forward. But again, I'm saying this with NO local knowledge of the plan, and it looks pretty solid overall.

 
dgreen said:
When I used DC Metro for work for a couple years, I liked the Transit app. Today, I just stumbled across this: https://gis.wmata.com/metrotrain/index.html. That's pretty freakin' awesome. My first thought was, "This should be an app." Then I found this: https://www.dcmetrohero.com/realtime-map. It doesn't look as nice as the WMATA one, but I read that they have an android app for their map. I don't have android so I'm not sure how that looks/works.

High frequency, or lead headways, reduce the need to know when another train/bus is coming. But, since almost nothing in the US has high enough frequencies to eliminate the worry of timing things right to catch a train, technology like this seems like the way to go to help people schedule their commute or errands.
While I have not had much contact over the past couple of years, I know the Managing Director of Planning for WMATA - really good guy, super smart, comes from the private sector (RCLCO most recently, one of the most respected and largest economic analysis/forecast firms for the big boys in the real estate industry)

 
https://streets.mn/2017/03/09/five-reasons-to-love-saint-pauls-ford-site-plans/

St Paul MN has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to plan a large neighborhood from scratch. Ford had a production plant on the Mississippi River since the 1940s. It's shut down and the company is cleaning it up and there will be 150 clean acres of development. And it looks like they're going to do it right. 

Edit @Koya interested to hear your take on this. 
Guy who wrote that is a friend of mine. He writes on some really interesting urban planning topics. 

 
My home currently has a walk score of 7.

But we are moving in about a month!

Our new place has a walk score of 1.


Eh. Those scores clearly indicate rural living. I know this is the urban thread, but rural living has appeal too. It's the middle ground of suburban that I've grown to dislike.

My walk score is 59. That has neither the value of urban living nor the appeal of rural living. I can walk to some stuff, but not enough. I can get to plenty of places in a decent time, but it pretty much has to be in a car.  And I can't do more rural things like sit on my porch and see absolutely nobody for hours or shoot a gun on my property or pee off my deck.

 
Eh. Those scores clearly indicate rural living. I know this is the urban thread, but rural living has appeal too. It's the middle ground of suburban that I've grown to dislike.

My walk score is 59. That has neither the value of urban living nor the appeal of rural living. I can walk to some stuff, but not enough. I can get to plenty of places in a decent time, but it pretty much has to be in a car.  And I can't do more rural things like sit on my porch and see absolutely nobody for hours or shoot a gun on my property or pee off my deck.
You bring up a very good point - and, in fact, one of the benefits of compact, walkable development, is the ability to preserve rural (and lower density suburban) character by focusing more growth into less land, including and especially land that has already been developed and is either underutilized or greyfields/brownfields.

To me, it's about balance and providing the market with a range of choices, as the market demands.  The challenge is we are so undersupplied for urban product that it's cost prohibitive which leads to gentrification and displacement... however not finding a way to build equitable and mixed-income neighborhoods within these walkable environments further stresses suburban and especially rural areas in terms of development pressure. 

 
You bring up a very good point - and, in fact, one of the benefits of compact, walkable development, is the ability to preserve rural (and lower density suburban) character by focusing more growth into less land, including and especially land that has already been developed and is either underutilized or greyfields/brownfields.

To me, it's about balance and providing the market with a range of choices, as the market demands.  The challenge is we are so undersupplied for urban product that it's cost prohibitive which leads to gentrification and displacement... however not finding a way to build equitable and mixed-income neighborhoods within these walkable environments further stresses suburban and especially rural areas in terms of development pressure. 
I saw a tweet recently about housing construction per capita by state. Let me try to find it. It's remarkable, at times, how little housing is built.

 
I saw a tweet recently about housing construction per capita by state. Let me try to find it. It's remarkable, at times, how little housing is built.
Look forward to seeing the data.  Are these overall housing starts or single family (vs. multifamily.. often they are different data sets depending upon the source)

 
Look forward to seeing the data.  Are these overall housing starts or single family (vs. multifamily.. often they are different data sets depending upon the source)
It's not all states. A series of tweets here: https://twitter.com/MarketUrbanism/status/841515174355955712

Looks like it's based on permits of, I assume, all housing.

Home permits per 1000 residents in 2016 (according to tweets)

IL - 1.74

CA - 2.4

OR - 4.3

AZ - 5.1

TX - 5.7

WA - 5.8

UT - 7

Here's 2016 annual permit housing data by state: https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/txt/t2yu201612.txt . Should be easy enough to merge with pop data to get a per 1000 number.

 

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