The hot Day 3 rookies (1 Viewer)

[Dan Hindery]

Every year, there are some rookies who were drafted 4th round or later who still go highly in dynasty drafts. Ahead of other rookies who the NFL valued more highly and went early in the NFL draft.

I wanted to go back through some rookie drafts in my oldest MFL league to see who the earliest Day 3 selection was in each of the last 6 rookie drafts. Here's what I found:

2016-Kenneth Dixon 

2015-David Cobb (1.07) B. Perriman 1.08, D. Johnson 2.03

2014- Martavis Bryant (2.04) A. Robinson 2.06

2013- Johnathan Franklin (2.04) Eifert 2.05

2012- Lamar Miller (1.14)

2011 Delone Carter (2.01) Torrey Smith 2.02, R. Cobb 2.05

Obviously a small sample size, but it looks like only a 20% success rate. Miller ended up being a smart dynasty rookie draft pick after he fell to the 4th with his shoulder issues. He'd be the one guy to point to if you advocate taking K. Dixon above some 1st/2nd round WRs and RBs this year. The rest of those "hot Day 3 guys" look like reaches in hindsight compared to at least one of the guys who went right after them. 

If anyone has leagues that go back further, I'd be curious to see the results.

Will also be interesting to see if Dixon ends up being a 4th-rounder like Miller who was worth it or just another Cobb/Franklin/Carter who end up quickly forgotten. Some highly-drafted guys who went soon after Dixon in this league included Will Fuller and Hunter Henry and they're probably the two I'm most interested in comparing his career to in a few years. 

 

[FUBAR]

2016-Kenneth Dixon 

2015-David Cobb (1.07) B. Perriman 1.08, D. Johnson 2.03

Who took cobb that early?   He went in the 20s at earliest in my leagues. 

Pretty sure javorious allen was the earliest 4th round pick in most of my leagues last year. He did alright, but went in the 30s (idp)

 

[steelers1080]

Who took cobb that early?   He went in the 20s at earliest in my leagues. 

Pretty sure javorious allen was the earliest 4th round pick in most of my leagues last year. He did alright, but went in the 30s (idp)

In my league last year I took David Johnson at the top of the 2nd round over a couple WRs and RBs who went ahead of him (but he was day 2).

This year there are a handful of players who could get drafted higher in my league purely because there's some fans of different teams who could reach:  Chris Moore, WR (Ravens); Higbee (Rams); Dixon (Ravens, Could go top 5 in my league); Booker (Went round 4 but I will probably pick him at 10 if he's still there ahead of Henry or other higher drafted players).

 

[Sabertooth]

Every year, there are some rookies who were drafted 4th round or later who still go highly in dynasty drafts. Ahead of other rookies who the NFL valued more highly and went early in the NFL draft.

I wanted to go back through some rookie drafts in my oldest MFL league to see who the earliest Day 3 selection was in each of the last 6 rookie drafts. Here's what I found:

2016-Kenneth Dixon 

2015-David Cobb (1.07) B. Perriman 1.08, D. Johnson 2.03

2014- Martavis Bryant (2.04) A. Robinson 2.06

2013- Johnathan Franklin (2.04) Eifert 2.05

2012- Lamar Miller (1.14)

2011 Delone Carter (2.01) Torrey Smith 2.02, R. Cobb 2.05

Obviously a small sample size, but it looks like only a 20% success rate. Miller ended up being a smart dynasty rookie draft pick after he fell to the 4th with his shoulder issues. He'd be the one guy to point to if you advocate taking K. Dixon above some 1st/2nd round WRs and RBs this year. The rest of those "hot Day 3 guys" look like reaches in hindsight compared to at least one of the guys who went right after them. 

If anyone has leagues that go back further, I'd be curious to see the results.

Will also be interesting to see if Dixon ends up being a 4th-rounder like Miller who was worth it or just another Cobb/Franklin/Carter who end up quickly forgotten. Some highly-drafted guys who went soon after Dixon in this league included Will Fuller and Hunter Henry and they're probably the two I'm most interested in comparing his career to in a few years. 

Johnathan Franklin looked excellent in his only career start against the Bengals.  13 Carries for 103 yards, 3 catches for 23 more yards and a touchdown (21.6 PPR points).   He could have been Gio Bernard to Lacy's Jeremy Hill.  Unfortunately, he suffered a career ending injury.  I think you have to take him out of the equation or call it a wash.  Not a failure.  He looked the part.  

 

[kutta]

Johnathan Franklin looked excellent in his only career start against the Bengals.  13 Carries for 103 yards, 3 catches for 23 more yards and a touchdown (21.6 PPR points).   He could have been Gio Bernard to Lacy's Jeremy Hill.  Unfortunately, he suffered a career ending injury.  I think you have to take him out of the equation or call it a wash.  Not a failure.  He looked the part.  

And Bryant looked the part also. Overall I'd say there were actually more hits than misses with that group.