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Some PPR Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
In a PPR format, I really don't like that trade. Message board studs flame out very regularly. Trading a top 5 player, who has played at a pro-bowl level, and gets massive amounts of targets is a huge mistake. Richardson hasn't even been drafted. Nfl scouts havent invested anything.'moderated said:
EBF
Footballguy
It's only .5 PPR, but you still have a point. While I'm definitely prone to going crazy over "the next big thing," I also recognize that you can't get too wrapped up in college players because being elite relative to a lower level of competition doesn't mean you're going to be elite relative to the guys who play on Sundays (see: Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Knowshon Moreno).I just happen to think Richardson is that rare Newton-Peterson-Calvin-Winslow level superfreak who's basically a mortal lock for top 5 status at the next level.
If he doesn't get hurt he is. He is without a doubt the best rb prospect since Peterson, as you said a once or twice in a decade rb prospect.Since you were out of the playoff running and rice's 2011 production was useless for you I think it was a very good trade.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I am all for getting your guy, all for going all in once you identify a guy as elite. I don't blame you for making the trade, based on how you feel about Richardson. I just wouldn't trade a top 5 dynasty guy for someone who has yet to even be drafted in the NFL. Even if Richardson ends up being the elite talent you project him to be, In PPR formats, that isn't always enough to make you a top 5 RB. If he were to go to a team that didn't utitilze the RB in the passing game, he could average 85/1TD (monster season) and still not be up there with Rice. I think the risk is high and the reward is minimal - how much better could he be than Rice? But, if you are right, you are right.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
These "best since" guys come along every year. Moreno was. Ingram was. Bush was. Roy/Reggie Williams were. Kellen Winslow was. Eli Manning was. Robert Gallery was. As for Trent specifically, I will say he is my favorite RB in the class, much like Ingram was in his. Physically, he is a freak - no doubt. But name me the RBs that out "big/strong/fast" defensive players in the NFL to succeed. Richardson, while he does make some nice cuts (spare me the latest juke highlight, although it was awesome), he doesn't show the patience that elite RBs in the NFL do. He takes a lot of hits (high) and is strong enough to bounce off of them and keep going. Can he do that in the NFL? If so, for how long? I know Richardson is a very good prospect. But the "best since" talk makes it hard to take posters seriously.
None of those guys you listed outside of Bush was widely thought of as a lock studs. Maybe some people felt that way, but not the majority.Outside of Reggie Bush they were thought of as very good talents, but not once in a decade types like Richardson.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
There is an Ingram to the HOF thread. There was plenty of "best since" talk with him.I don't know if you remember, but Roy Williams had the "Randy Moss" tag applied to him very early, as did Charlie Rodgers. There was talk about Eli potentially being as good as his brother.And SURELY you know Robert Gallery and Kellen Winslow both had the "best since" talk. Gallery was considered a better OT prospect than Richardson is a RB prospect. And unlike Richardson, who hasn't been drafted yet, Gallery was drafted to reflect that.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Pretending that a 2421 year old player doesn't have more value - assuming all other aspects are equal - than a 2724 year old player is a disservice to your fantasy team and an advantage you surrender to your league mates.
I don't think anyone was or has made that argument...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I respect your willingness to question the statements of posters. But this is a blantant attempt to conjur up an inconsistancy that doesn't exist.
EBF
Footballguy
Part of being good at this hobby is recognizing the difference between a prospect like Calvin and a prospect like Braylon Edwards. I can't speak for anyone else, but I never felt any of the players you named were "once per decade" types besides Bush, who had plenty of critics even back then due to his atypical WR/RB tweener style. I don't recall anyone ever suggesting that guys like Moreno and Reggie Williams were the best prospects at their position in the past decade. They were thought to be solid first rounders. Nothing more. Nothing less. I think it's appropriate to be skeptical of "the next big thing." At the same time, a certain percentage of highly touted prospects WILL become elite pros. Sometimes a player comes along who's so insanely gifted that you can pretty much assume he's a lock for pro stardom. I felt that way about Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson. I feel that way about Richardson. He's the most gifted RB to come along in the past several years and I think the probability of him being a non-injury bust is basically 0. This is not Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, or even Mark Ingram we're dealing with. Having followed all of those guys throughout the draft process, I find the comparison silly. Richardson is on another level. If it isn't obvious to everyone yet, I think it will be in the near future. I'm not going to be bashful about a player like this because of what happened with Knowshon Moreno or Laurence Maroney. It's not a parallel situation.
The difference between solid 1st round talents and rare elite talents is night and day, i think many people are getting confused by that difference.cowboymouth
Footballguy
Yes he has good hands. Bama doesn't throw to him a lot - outside a few screens or check downs- so the sample size is small.
I believe the truth is somewhere in the middle. CC listed a few guys that I didn't agree with as well, namely Reggie Williams, Moreno, and Ingram. However, I wouldn't be so quick to diminish a lot of the other guys he listed...Charles Rogers was absolutely hyped up more than Dez Bryant, without a doubt. Roy Williams was hyped more as well, though a touch below Rogers, and many had him as 1B to Fitzgerald in that amazing class. Winslow was absolutely ranked higher than any TE in my memory.Trent might end up being an amazing talent like AP, but if I had to put money on whether his career would resemble AP or Ronnie Brown, I would go with the latter.
I agree with a couple.Charles Rodgers was an elite talent, but he had major injuries and a drug problem that was a red flag pre-NFL draft.Winslow was absolutely an elite talent at the TE position but blew his knee ruining his career.If Ingram has major injuries of course he won't fulfill his potential, but that can be said of any player. So far i haven't heard any character issues but those too can derail an elite talents career.I believe the truth is somewhere in the middle. CC listed a few guys that I didn't agree with as well, namely Reggie Williams, Moreno, and Ingram. However, I wouldn't be so quick to diminish a lot of the other guys he listed...Charles Rogers was absolutely hyped up more than Dez Bryant, without a doubt. Roy Williams was hyped more as well, though a touch below Rogers, and many had him as 1B to Fitzgerald in that amazing class. Winslow was absolutely ranked higher than any TE in my memory.Trent might end up being an amazing talent like AP, but if I had to put money on whether his career would resemble AP or Ronnie Brown, I would go with the latter.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I would disagree with this a lot. I think everyone can pick out Randy Moss. Every scouting profile hits you over the head that it's Randy Moss. The difference between Edwards, Charles Rodgers, Michael Crabtree, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Justin Blackmon is little more situation, psychology, and kismet and a little less expert prognostication. What do you think about AJ Green at this point? You said
Were you wrong about AJ Green? Is he closer to Braylon Edwards 2007 or Calvin Johnson 2011 at this point? Do you want to call him a sell high at this point? Even believers didn't expect a top 10 year from him out of the gate, but basically he's showing everything he could do with his size/hands he did in college he can do in the pros. Maybe the no fun league contact rules are helping him, but it seems he is Larry Fitzgerald just a bonier one.
You can't negate any of the players I bolded. Every single one of them proves my point and goes directly against what you have been saying. Each of the bolded players would have required you to pay a significant price to acquire them...a price inflated by their young age...only to have each of them NEVER EVER again reach the value that their watershed season provided.My entire point was that it is foolish to overpay for youth because you feel that youth will provide you significant advantages 4+ years down the road. Your list entirely shows my point- 15 of the 27 players would have caused you to vastly overpay for them because of their career season plus their youth (actually even more of them if I am not being so generous. If I look at those that had a value drop after their 4th year, the list grows by 3. If I look at those that didn't perform after their fifth year, the list grows by an additional 2, meaning 20 of the 27 players had big value drops within 5 years). You could have gotten many other players who performed to similar levels than the bolded players, but were 1-2 years older, for significantly cheaper.
Why overpay for youth when over 50% of the time, that youth never materializes into like production 4+ years down the road? I believe you are currently overpaying for McCoy if you are paying a price equal to Peterson. Peterson provides a more predictable future for the next 3 years (due to the track record) and with absolutely no certainties after that (and a better than 50% rate of the value dropping, based on your own examples), I can't see how McCoy at the same price is worth it or provides more value.
Let's chalk it up to a difference of opinions on how we operate our dynasty teams and I will stop derailing the thread.
As it pertains to the Trent Richardson discussion, I stated originally that every once in awhile (in my opinion it is generally around once a decade), a player comes along that is so ridiculously and obviously talented that it behooves anyone to grab him over proven commodities. I 100% felt that way about Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson and would have faulted no one for ranking them #1 at their respective position before they played an NFL down (I personally ranked Calvin at #1, but not Peterson, although he was close). I 50% way feel that way about Trent Richardson, mostly it is because I have not watched him quite as much as I had Peterson or Calvin. However, if someone believes he is a once in a decade type talent, then they should rank him accordingly and should value him above someone like Ray Rice, who while good, is not on that talent plane. That said, you need to feel really, really strongly about him in order to do that. I did feel that way about Peterson and Calvin, and while I can't fault anyone who currently feels that way about Richardson, I currently don't and thus wouldn't rank him that highly (I think he is good, but not on the Peterson level, but admit that I am very possibly wrong and haven't watched him enough to say that with any true confidence).
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EBF
Footballguy
My stance on Green just reinforces the fact that I'm reluctant to anoint players to that super elite level if they have any flaws whatsoever. Green is showing well, so he is starting to earn my trust, but I still wouldn't feel comfortable giving up a super elite dynasty WR for him straight up.
I would say the same for Justin Blackmon, who I like quite a bit. Good prospect. Solid player. A worthy first round pick. But...would I trade Larry Fitzgerald or Dez Bryant for him? No. I think he has the potential to reach that level, but I don't quite rate him as that once-or-twice-per-decade can't-miss superstar.
Blackmon and Green, at least for me, are guys who fall into the "solid first rounder" category rather than "once-per-decade." These prospects are still extremely valuable dynasty commodities who have the potential to become nucleus players, but...they're not guys I would've mortgaged the farm for coming out of college.
I draw a distinction between them and guys like Calvin, Dez, and Richardson, who I felt comfortable valuing at an elite level before they actually "proved" it on Sundays. It's a subjective thing and it's different for everyone. Some people thought McFadden was in the ADP class. I didn't. Maybe I was wrong. Some people don't think Richardson is in the ADP class. They think he's more like a Ronnie Brown. Maybe they're wrong.
I don't think draft position alone is the perfect indicator, since some of my favorite prospects have fallen into the late 20s (Dez) while others whom I've strongly doubted have gone in the top 10 (Ginn, McFadden, Spiller). What I do know is that when I see a player who looks like an obvious mortal lock to me, I don't hesitate to value him accordingly.
I would say the same for Justin Blackmon, who I like quite a bit. Good prospect. Solid player. A worthy first round pick. But...would I trade Larry Fitzgerald or Dez Bryant for him? No. I think he has the potential to reach that level, but I don't quite rate him as that once-or-twice-per-decade can't-miss superstar.
Blackmon and Green, at least for me, are guys who fall into the "solid first rounder" category rather than "once-per-decade." These prospects are still extremely valuable dynasty commodities who have the potential to become nucleus players, but...they're not guys I would've mortgaged the farm for coming out of college.
I draw a distinction between them and guys like Calvin, Dez, and Richardson, who I felt comfortable valuing at an elite level before they actually "proved" it on Sundays. It's a subjective thing and it's different for everyone. Some people thought McFadden was in the ADP class. I didn't. Maybe I was wrong. Some people don't think Richardson is in the ADP class. They think he's more like a Ronnie Brown. Maybe they're wrong.
I don't think draft position alone is the perfect indicator, since some of my favorite prospects have fallen into the late 20s (Dez) while others whom I've strongly doubted have gone in the top 10 (Ginn, McFadden, Spiller). What I do know is that when I see a player who looks like an obvious mortal lock to me, I don't hesitate to value him accordingly.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think anybody is. I just won't rely on amateur eyes to point them out, seeing as how even pro scouts are wrong so often. We don't know how Trent will perform in the NFL when he is not bigger, stronger and faster than the men tackling him. We don't know what NFL scouts think about him. We don't know what the NFL draft advisory committee thinks of him. We don't know if or when he will start. We don't know where he will play. We don't know what an NFL team is willing to spend to acquire him. We don't know his measurements or 40 time. To treat a player with so many questions as a top 3 dynasty back is not something I would do. I respect EBF for sticking to his guns and putting his money where his mouth is. If he is right, he could have a once a decade RB for his entire career.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
You didn't give Rice for Richardson straight up. I would disagree with Coop that you overpaid for him or really risked that much. Richardson's market value next year when you have a chance to compete again will be even closer to that of Rice's than what you paid. There's risk, but just like Jamaal Charles or Kenny Britt, there's risk in any player. If someone offered you Green and Murray (pick a 22 year old RB prospect taken with a mid-1st-or-later you believe in) for Wallace it is not an easy no by any means. For Nicks, Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson, it is not an easy no. Calvin Johnson is the only easy no for me in a deal like that, even not believing in Green 100%.A high draft pick will always be valued highly. Your league is different because you already gave that draft pick a name, but the hype on Richardson is not going to subside. There's few players where it has (Dwyer being one of them). It almost doesn't matter what the name is as far as intermediate-range value. You might not have believed in Green enough to sell the farm on him, but it's not a bad choice to do so when your team is young and out of it. Richardson is a tech stock in the 90s. It doesn't matter if he's really a small travel agency in Ohio.
squistion
Footballguy
This. That reminds me of a comment Bloom had earlier this year in another thread that is relevant:http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=583819&hl=lande&st=0
.A player may look like a mortal lock, but unless you can predict the future, who knows how this will play out? My experience is that people who are always living years in the future in dynasty leagues tend to be tripped up by unforeseen variables/circumstances that they never envisoned or anticipated. I couldn't imagine doing a trade involving a current young Top 5 RB for a player who hasn't yet played a down in the NFL, nor has been evaluated by the scouts - but that's probably the reason I don't play in leagues where you can draft college players - my crystal ball just isn't that good.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Bump for update.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Perfect example is Dez Bryant.... it doesn't matter how his career plays out, he is that type of cant miss prospect. Just like Charles Rodgers was. Just like Kellen Winslow was. Other guys may have better career's , but none have higher ceilings. Another guy from the 07 draft was Patrick Willis, That guy was a cant miss MLB prospect, once in a decade and no one was arguing. Guys like that do not fail barring injury or personal issues. Eric Berry and Ndamukong Suh were the only other cant miss guys that I have seen in the past few years. As much as Green is a fantastic prospect, I didn't get the same feeling watching him as I did when I saw Dez Bryant. Even you have Dez Ranked 3 in your rankings and he has not proved anything compared to the guys around him.
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ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
What happened to this thread? Died out pretty quickly. Any update on the rankings?
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
If Ingram was truly a "Best Since Blah Blah Blah" he wouldn't have fell to end of the 1st round. A very good indicator as to how good Richardson is will be determined by where he gets drafted. He goes in the top 10 then hes the real deal, he falls to the end of the round like Ingram than chances are hes really not all that.
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