Sleeper Alert: Rob Kelley - RB - WAS (3 Viewers)

[Buzzbait]

 I'm not talking about my bench. I'm talking about the vast majority of benches in fantasy football. 

 I've said several times that In leagues that are 14 or 16 teams, he makes a good speculative add.

I'm not saying you're right, not saying your wrong but I just pulled up DD (the new one) and in a 14 team standard scoring league his rank is 162 and EDP is 181. 14 teams 16 rounds is 224 picks so if you trust DD the stats seem to say it isn't ridicules to expect him to be drafted.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

 Count me in the camp that's shocked that you guys are even considering him.  I won't beat a dead horse so I'll move along now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't mind your difference of opinion at all, and I don't really mean for anyone to leave discussion.  Just seems odd that a potential starting RB in the NFL that only costs a speculative roster spot is drawing the ire of people who will not roster him.   As massraider so eloquently said "Weird hill some of you are choosing to die on."

 I think some of that is projection. I don't see anyone here dying on a hill, nor do I see much ire.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm not saying you're right, not saying your wrong but I just pulled up DD (the new one) and in a 14 team standard scoring league his rank is 162 and EDP is 181. 14 teams 16 rounds is 224 picks so if you trust DD the stats seem to say it isn't ridicules to expect him to be drafted.

 And if you look back at my posts, I've said repeatedly that I'm leagues larger than 12 teams, like 14, 16 or more, he's absolutely roster worthy. 

 So we are in agreement about that.

In shallow leagues with short  benches, not so much. 

 And again, I believe the timing has a lot to do with it. We haven't seen a game yet. Most people just drafted. Some haven't even drafted yet. 

 And we're talking about a player who as of right now, does not have a starting job in the NFL.  And in fact, Matt Jones is currently expected to play in week one. 

 In my humble opinion, all of those things should come into the equation when deciding whether to spend a draft pick or roster spot on a player.  Other considerations might be the quality of the offense of line, the commitment of the team to the run, and the talent of the individual player in question. 

 If I'm drafting today, I will certainly look at Alford Morris or any number of other more talented back ups with better offense of lines in a more run friendly environment before I look at Kelly. 

No angst, no Ira, just an opinion. 

 

[massraider]

He's not free. He requires a roster spot.  Maybe you play in a league with  A magical free roster spot for guys named Kelly, but I don't. 

 So your definition of "free "and my definition differ somewhat. 

 If this were a week six or seven, this topic would have much greater relevance. 

ETA:  i'm not dying on any Hill, just trying to keep it real. 

 The premise of this topic was, and I quote, " he is a must add in any format ".

 I continue to disagree with that premise.  

But I do wish the Kelly owners luck. If you're  headed into week one with Kelly occupying a starting spot in your lineup, you're definitely going to need it. 

Your friends roll their eyes when you aren't looking.

Thought you should know

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I vote hot sauce stops posting in this thread. We get it guy, you don't like him. You don't have to keep telling us over and over that you do not think he is worth rostering. Move along now... most likely into a Powell thread. 

 How about no. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yes, I agree, you are conceited.

 Voice to text

  But welcome to my ignore list. 

 

[tone1oc]

I think the real challenge for some is the notion that Matt Jones hasn't earned anything.  He was atop the offseason depth chart and they moved on from Alfred Morris, but part of this for me is that Matt Jones is in a very fluid situation.  He has had issues in pass protection, he has had fumble problems, he sported a meager 3.4ypc as a rookie and he has a bum shoulder at the moment.

If Rob Kelley can hold on to the football continue to be great in pass pro while falling forward for 4 yards a clip, I think the competition is 50/50 between them.  At worst I think Kelley has probably snatched away high leverage touches in the RZ and short yardage. 

For those drafting or using waiver wire to acquire, simply drop your kicker and hold until there is some clarity.  That is free.99 sharks!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think the real challenge for some is the notion that Matt Jones hasn't earned anything.  He was atop the offseason depth chart and they moved on from Alfred Morris, but part of this for me is that Matt Jones is in a very fluid situation.  He has had issues in pass protection, he has had fumble problems, he sported a meager 3.4ypc as a rookie and he has a bum shoulder at the moment.

If Rob Kelley can hold on to the football continue to be great in pass pro while falling forward for 4 yards a clip, I think the competition is 50/50 between them.  At worst I think Kelley has probably snatched away high leverage touches in the RZ and short yardage. 

For those drafting or using waiver wire to acquire, simply drop your kicker and hold until there is some clarity.  That is free.99 sharks!

There is a chance that Matt Jones improves from Year 1 to Year 2. He wouldn't be the first RB to do so - but agree he is about the shakiest starting RB in the league right now. I'm not sold on Kelley as being a better prospect but he's surely worth a speculative add at least.

I think the disconnect is that we all look at it from the perspective of our league. In dynasty leagues (that generally have larger rosters) he'll be owned in almost every league by the next waiver run, if not owned already (he was picked up in all my leagues which allow offseason pick ups already).

In a 12 man redraft he's not a "must own" but worth picking up if you took a flier at the end of your draft on another backup RB because he's already moved a step closer. Personally I like Chris Thompson better because I play in ppr leagues and think he has more potential as a prospect overall, but to each his own.

 

[Mene]

That means every 12 team league has someone who drafted horribly and probably has no chance to win with or without picking up Kelly. Because (again) we're talking about week 1 here, right after everyone drafted. 

And y'all keep saying that word - "IF" - then you get all lecturey about the ifs. Why waste the energy for something that might not happen? Or better, spend it talking about the backups in DAL or MIN or some good running team where the backup is more talented? 

man, I haven't seen this kind of love for a speculative "IF/THEN" running back ever. And that it's for one who has never generated any buzz is bizarre. 

Love the passion though - I wish some of you were in my league...the $ would be better with all the desperation add drops. In week 1. lol

so yes - I have already conceded that IF Jones misses week 1, then Kelly is worth an add. But in most 12 team leagues, right now, as it stands, he's not. Especially not at the expense of someone you just drafted. 

Hey, maybe you made a 2 for 1 deal and freed up a roster spot - go for it. Add Kelly and fall in  . 

Long odds on a breakout player though. 

Good luck to all the kelly backers. I hope he works out for ya. 

Not one for exaggeration, this one, not at all.

It does not mean that, not at all.  Not everyone in this thread is declaring Kelley a season saver.  I, along with others, are just pointing out that any potential starting NFL RB is worth rostering in most leagues.  Sure, short benches, 10 team leagues, Super Duper Drafter Fella's who have a roster full of guys with an ADP above 60, will not have interest.  However, 12+ teams, 16+ roster spots, etc, will likely have a team in their league who it would make sense to pick the guy up.  That does not mean they drafted horribly, or that they have no chance to win... just that the had someone they liked less.  

Also, another thing you seem to have grabbed on to, nobody is saying pick him up and plug him in to your RB1 spot right now.  You've mentioned how awful it would be to start him... I agree.  I don't advocate picking him up to start him, I say pick him up because the end of most rosters is typically guys that I need something to happen to their situation for you to ever want to start them.  It's fantastic if you can carry 16-18 players that you would start in a moments notice, few of us have that luxury.  

I stand by what I said, any starting NFL RB is has a place on someones fantasy roster in most leagues with 12+ teams.  Not necessarily as a starter, but a spot on the roster.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not one for exaggeration, this one, not at all.

It does not mean that, not at all.  Not everyone in this thread is declaring Kelley a season saver.  I, along with others, are just pointing out that any potential starting NFL RB is worth rostering in most leagues.

Sure, short benches, 10 team leagues, Super Duper Drafter Fella's who have a roster full of guys with an ADP above 60, will not have interest.  However, 12+ teams, 16+ roster spots, etc, will likely have a team in their league who it would make sense to pick the guy up.  That does not mean they drafted horribly, or that they have no chance to win... just that the had someone they liked less.  

Also, another thing you seem to have grabbed on to, nobody is saying pick him up and plug him in to your RB1 spot right now.  You've mentioned how awful it would be to start him... I agree.  I don't advocate picking him up to start him, I say pick him up because the end of most rosters is typically guys that I need something to happen to their situation for you to ever want to start them.  It's fantastic if you can carry 16-18 players that you would start in a moments notice, few of us have that luxury.  

I stand by what I said, any starting NFL RB is has a place on someones fantasy roster in most leagues with 12+ teams.  Not necessarily as a starter, but a spot on the roster.

 And I agree with most of this.  If you took the time to read my posts, you'll see that I've said the same thing   I guess I'll get insulted and called conceied again for that. (sigh) -  but that's OK… I get it… board Silverbacks like the pile on the new guy. I've seen it before. 

Also your highlighted passage was  intended as humor, not exaggeration.  Sorry if that was unclear  -  sometimes the written word does not convey as well as in speaking to someone face-to-face.  The context was picking him up for week one. That's what I found to be incongruous with anyone  in a  12 team league or smaller having a good draft. 

 Once again, I never disagreed with the  statement that a starting running back was worth  rostering.

But as of this writing, Kelly is not a starting running back.

 Larger league? Deep bench? Have At him. Great speculative add. Totally and completely agree that he makes for a great pick up if you have something to drop. 

 I'm not saying that every person on my team is the top 60 pick. I'm saying that every person on my team is more valuable than Kelly.  It's the projection an exaggeration  like that  that makes it difficult to engage in meaningful discussion. 

 But the fact is on many  points we are in complete agreement. 

 Once again, I wish you luck and I wish those who pick up Kelly luck.  I hope he works out for you. Personally, I don't understand the excitement. 

 

[Boston]

Doesn't matter who the guy is and what the team is in today's RB environment it's better to be a week early than a week late...

 

[tone1oc]

There is a chance that Matt Jones improves from Year 1 to Year 2. He wouldn't be the first RB to do so - but agree he is about the shakiest starting RB in the league right now. I'm not sold on Kelley as being a better prospect but he's surely worth a speculative add at least.

I think the disconnect is that we all look at it from the perspective of our league. In dynasty leagues (that generally have larger rosters) he'll be owned in almost every league by the next waiver run, if not owned already (he was picked up in all my leagues which allow offseason pick ups already).

In a 12 man redraft he's not a "must own" but worth picking up if you took a flier at the end of your draft on another backup RB because he's already moved a step closer. Personally I like Chris Thompson better because I play in ppr leagues and think he has more potential as a prospect overall, but to each his own.

I don't think he's a "must own" in the way most starting NFL RBs are.  But he should be owned in most 12x15 leagues IMO, especially in a year where ZeroRB is all the rage. 

I do like Chris Thompson in PPR and I think he caps the upside of either Jones or Kelley. 

 

[tone1oc]

Doesn't matter who the guy is and what the team is in today's RB environment it's better to be a week early than a week late...

Not comparing the two as players, at all..  But a lot of people on these boards wanted to wait until after week 1 to add Dion Lewis because of they wanted to see it first. 

 

[bigmarc27]

Marshall going to IR. Competition getting scarcer by the minute. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

 i'm not here to make enemies… I'm here to make friends and talk football.

My apologies to those who didn't like my contributions in this topic. I thought it was a lively discussion. 

 It will be interesting to revisit this in a couple of weeks to see what Kelly's actual value has been. 

Until then...

 

[tone1oc]

 i'm not here to make enemies… I'm here to make friends and talk football.

My apologies to those who didn't like my contributions in this topic. I thought it was a lively discussion. 

 It will be interesting to revisit this in a couple of weeks to see what Kelly's actual value has been. 

Until then...

You're all good man, and I didn't even notice you are new.  Welcome to the SP, I look forward to working you in future football discussions!

 

[mr roboto]

 i'm not here to make enemies… I'm here to make friends and talk football.

My apologies to those who didn't like my contributions in this topic. I thought it was a lively discussion. 

 It will be interesting to revisit this in a couple of weeks to see what Kelly's actual value has been. 

Until then...

Your contributions are great. I've enjoyed reading your takes. 

Your tone could get old. Not a criticism just an FYI. 

Welcome!  

 

[Ilov80s]

Might need to drop Washington for Kelley. It seems like R. Kelley has the direct path to value. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Your contributions are great. I've enjoyed reading your takes. 

Your tone could get old. Not a criticism just an FYI. 

Welcome!  

I'll try to watch the tone - I sometimes forget that being jovial in R/L doesn't always translate to text. Cheers.

 

[DropKick]

I don't mind your difference of opinion at all, and I don't really mean for anyone to leave discussion.  Just seems odd that a potential starting RB in the NFL that only costs a speculative roster spot is drawing the ire of people who will not roster him.   As massraider so eloquently said "Weird hill some of you are choosing to die on."

This kind of works both ways... I don't see either side of the argument conceding anything.

As for Hot Sauce... the word isn't conceiting... Aside from that small typo, I don't think he said anything wrong... it's a debate.  I also agree with him... Kelley isn't first on the depth chart and is not slated to start week one.   Sure, if you have deep rosters, maybe anyone is a speculative add.  But, they do come with an opportunity cost - release someone to pick him up.  On my roster, that would be Spencer Ware and no, I'm not doing that for a guy with a sniff of an opportunity after three weeks of preseason.  So, please, no talk about my "awesome bench" - that isn't how this is intended.

 

[tone1oc]

This kind of works both ways... I don't see either side of the argument conceding anything.

As for Hot Sauce... the word isn't conceiting... Aside from that small typo, I don't think he said anything wrong... it's a debate.  I also agree with him... Kelley isn't first on the depth chart and is not slated to start week one.   Sure, if you have deep rosters, maybe anyone is a speculative add.  But, they do come with an opportunity cost - release someone to pick him up.  On my roster, that would be Spencer Ware and no, I'm not doing that for a guy with a sniff of an opportunity after three weeks of preseason.  So, please, no talk about my "awesome bench" - that isn't how this is intended.

Congrats!  I love Spencer Ware, nice pick.  I'm really happy for you, but he is, in fact, atop the depth chart right now and we don't know if Matt Jones will be ready.

 

[DropKick]

Congrats!  I love Spencer Ware, nice pick.  I'm really happy for you, but he is, in fact, atop the depth chart right now and we don't know if Matt Jones will be ready.

Not the NFL's depth charts...  We don't know that Jones won't be ready either...  And Kelley's "value" hinges on that (among other variables)...  and as Hot Sauce said 8 times, if you would trot Kelly out there in week one for his 20 carries, you probably didn't draft very well.

 

[ponchsox]

Meh.

 

[tone1oc]

Not the NFL's depth charts...  We don't know that Jones won't be ready either...  And Kelley's "value" hinges on that 9among other viariables)...  and as Hot Sauce said 8 times, if you would trot Kelly out there in week one for his 20 carries, you probably didn't draft very well.

Ouch!  If only I would of grabbed Spencer Ware.  One day I'll get there.  

Did you really read any of my comments and come to the logical conclusion that I'm recommending starting him Week 1?

 

[Eminence]

Not the NFL's depth charts...  We don't know that Jones won't be ready either...  And Kelley's "value" hinges on that 9among other viariables)...  and as Hot Sauce said 8 times, if you would trot Kelly out there in week one for his 20 carries, you probably didn't draft very well.

Can't I use that same argument with Spencer Ware?

It's really not that big a deal guys, the weakest starting Runningback in the NFL got hurt and his backup is available on most waiver wires. Said starting Runningback is injury prone and didn't impress with a 3.4 yard per carry last season.

If you believe in "next man up" you take the guy. If not, don't. I think you guys forget how long the season really is, people were starting Tim Hightower in championship games last year.

 

[Arodin]

.

If you believe in "next man up" you take the guy. If not, don't. I think you guys forget how long the season really is, people were starting Tim Hightower in championship games last year.

Anyone who picked up Hightower in preseason though almost certainly cut him during bye weeks.  (32-team, and deep, deep bench leagues excepted.)

Late waiver adds dont usually work as preseason flyers.

 

[tone1oc]

Anyone who picked up Hightower in preseason though almost certainly cut him during bye weeks.  (32-team, and deep, deep bench leagues excepted.)

Late waiver adds dont usually work as preseason flyers.

Nobody was adding him until after Ingram went down, unless you were cuffing.  I will say they were a lot of people that didn't believe he'd be able to continue to produce even after he got in and was very effective.

 

[bigmarc27]

I don't really understand why people are getting so testy. Nobody is saying take him as you #2 back, he's a guy who can be had late who has a relatively good shot at playing time. 

Have you people never heard of a sleeper before?

 

[ex-ghost]

And Marshall goes on IR.

 

[IHEARTFF]

R kelley to piss on matt jones owners

 

[Dismattle]

While I agree with the poster (weak combine numbers)  I also understand that some of us love numbers.  (2 much?)

Recently, I read a report about M. Bennett based on max expectations (Top 20 oof) 

A quick note on Bennett’s somewhat modest equity scores: It seem people are drafting the goliath with the assumption that he’ll take on the team’s No. 3 pass catching role. I worked through the possibility with the Rotoviz projection machine, giving him a hearty 12 percent of the team’s total targets — by far the most for a non-Gronk tight end since the departure of Aaron Hernandez — along with Bennett’s career yards per target (6.9) and touchdown rate (6.6 percent). He came out with TE17 numbers. The high-end equity score, putting him just inside the top-12 tight ends, was done assuming he’s the team’s No. 2 target, edging out Julian Edelman in target share. Bennett’s untold upside comes in the form of a Gronkowski injury. Perhaps that’s what folks are thinking when they take Bennett as the 13th tight end off the draft board.   http://bit.ly/2ajEMIV 

But, I personally dont buy all numbers.   The 4.68 actually bests what I consider to be the best RB to ever play the game; Earl Campbell ran a 4.70, but he thinks he ran faster when being chased by a linebacker..

Obviously theres a chance that someone responding to Fat Rob's post may be privy to some trusted source..  1) Gurus can be wrong!  2) It hasnt been shared

Honestly, I was kinda distraught about the Redskins plan at RB from a fans perspective.  (I recall tweeting and thanking Alfred for all his work)  Obviously Jones could be all that is needed.  However, normally competition is good.  IF your not getting better, your getting worse.

Fat Rob has been challenged to perform at many positions by his previous Coachs.  While now he has one job that consists of protecting the QB, while running and catching the ball.  Currently Kelly is at the very end of my RB list   (MillerTime, Zeke, Hill, Langford, Fat Rob)  In some respects it was an expensive addition to add Kelly because it forced me to drop Henry Anderson (Young Indy DE w/ solid tackle numbers possibly not rdy for wk 1)  Once again though truthfully or honestly, I drafted SF rookie Buckner to start for my team.  (Dynasty:  If your not getting younger...)

Basically after week 1, I might just have created an open roster spot  Or heck I just get lucky and re-add a heck of a DE   It is Win Win for me IMHO

How So (right)

1) Both Hill and Langford are kind of question marks  there's a chance I have rostered my RB3  (technically, I can start four RB's)

2) heck maybe I see a grt trade offer for one of my backs

3) Im the kind of guy who needs an available roster spot.  Because if I like a guy, and the right FBG man posts he does too   Im adding, and someone is getting cut loose

4) Called me overly concerned w/ return from injury.  Hopefully Henry is back w/ a vengeance.  If so I will happily re-add if still available

p.s.  Im only posting some because I dont want a new guy scared off by mis-information... First impressions are lasting impressions..  I also dont want anyone not returning because they feel embarrassed because they mis-spoke.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Kelly:  Ascention to RB2. 

IMO, the RBBC begins if Jones misses time. 

Two plodding backs for 110 touches each with a QB who likes to run for TDs.

Fantasy wasteland. Love the Redskins passing game - DJax underrated. Cousins a beast.

running game is a mess. If they bring in Hillman as some here have suggested I'm all in. 

 

[Ellie826]

Local beat writer took Kelly in his draft and NOT as a handcuff. Still likely not hitting but something to note.

i drafted Kelly with my last pick and am planing on holding but he had a 4.0 ypc in college and was never even the best rb at Tulane. If he can't be productive and be the best rb in college, how is he going to become good in the pros? I don't know any ribs that were not productive in college coming to the pros and excelling.

 

[tombonneau]

Lost in all this is did people actually watch the video posted by OP? Kelley looks like a downright pedestrian backup RB. Zero special about his game. I'm talking Brandon Bolden levels of mediocrity. 

We have a massive Skins Homer in 14-team dynasty and it took a Marshall IR for him to finally add this guy. 

Love the post and love the enthusiasm but as the old formula says Talent + Opportunity. And Mr. Kelley is seriously lacking the former IMO. 

Look forward to page 32 of this thread though.

 

[bigmarc27]

Again, nobody is saying he's the next Stephen Davis. He's just a name to me right now.  All I know is he's good enough at football to be on the preseason roster of the Washington Redskins. Past that, all that I'm looking at is opportunity. If they bring in another player, oh well he goes back to waivers and I use my last roster spot on another lottery ticket. If they don't, maybe he does something, maybe he doesn't. I don't really care. 

Yes, more than likely he's nothing and for every Mike Anderson on the Broncos, there's 10 guys who work at car dealerships right now. I don't know why some of you are being so dense acting like he's going to cost a 4th rounder or something. Sounds like Matt Jones owners convincing themselves he's actually a good RB.  

 

[Dismattle]

Technically bigmarc27,,  The original poster starts his defining by stating " If Kelley is available in any format, you need to roster him right now "

Im sure most of us could take this as " Im willing to bet cash money "  or  " seriously, I do like this guy alot "

There is  small chance some guy who just used the FBG draft dominator against some real noobies, and landed one heck of a team is considering to drop " whoever floats your boat "

I must admit that I didnt notice this small caveat until checking as to why some may feel coerced into cghk blocking the acquisition of Fat Rob..

Truth be told   Im not so sure Matt Jones is/was a must add depending upon how well you drafted  (ie.  Do you really drop a solid WR3/4, because ya should get good trade compensation)  It appeared to me that we had a new guy posting (I know it, because I played FF last Season) and I just instinctively started posting rebuttals to what could be conceived as B.S.  (ex.  The RB2 listed is the true handcuff for injury)

p.s.  (imho) Other than the "must roster" statement  This is an excellent post OP

 

[(HULK)]

With Marshall going on IR, I think you look to draft Kelley near the end of upcoming drafts.  All formats.  He shouldn't be on waivers anymore, he's probably got a better shot of turning into something that your last round pick.

2 weeks ago he was like hitting a 5 digit lotto ticket.

1 week ago he was like hitting a 3 digit lotto ticket.

Today he is now a 1 digit lotto ticket.

Actually, I'm just trying to shoe horn in more lotto ticket talk since it's everywhere lately, even invaded the daily email updates.

The current reality is that there is a % chance that Kelley gets this job, and if he gets it, there is a % chance he is a solid RB3, and a smaller % chance he actually somehow turns into a RB2, and a yet smaller % chance he turns into an RB1.  Whatever he ends up being, I'm not sure, but I do know that over the past couple of weeks those %s have gotten to be bigger numbers.  Everything is breaking right for this kid.

 

[Raleigh Engineers]

 

[mr roboto]

Lost in all this is did people actually watch the video posted by OP? Kelley looks like a downright pedestrian backup RB. Zero special about his game. I'm talking Brandon Bolden levels of mediocrity.

We have a massive Skins Homer in 14-team dynasty and it took a Marshall IR for him to finally add this guy. 

Love the post and love the enthusiasm but as the old formula says Talent + Opportunity. And Mr. Kelley is seriously lacking the former IMO. 

Look forward to page 32 of this thread though.

Bingo. 

 

[tombonneau]

Today he is now a 1 digit lotto ticket.

So you think there is a 10% chance that he overtakes Matt Jones as the starting RB? Seems overzealous. He's a MJ handcuff and bottom of roster guy in 14+ teamers. 

 

[bigmarc27]

So you think there is a 10% chance that he overtakes Matt Jones as the starting RB? Seems overzealous. He's a MJ handcuff and bottom of roster guy in 14+ teamers. 

Yeah, I just don't see how Matt Jones and his 3.4 YPC isn't safe. That's elite. Combine that with his late 3rd round pedigree and clean-ish bill of health, let's just pencil in Jones as the only RB in Washington. 

 

[Boston]

This post is getting foolish...

Bottomnline...RBs are beyond dicey these days and you need to look at everyone that shows up on the radar screen...regardless of what you think of his talent the kid has a potential opportunity in a backfield that has legit questions...you take a look at the last man on your roster and decide whether you want to keep him or roll the dice that Kelly plays week one and becomes one of those out-of-nowhere stories...I don't think anyone is saying he is a definite (nor should they...did anyone even know who he was two weeks ago)...it's that simple...I wouldn't cut a Ware or a Tevin Coleman for him but I would do it for a backup TE that you maybe able to reacquire after week one...  

 

[Ilov80s]

Kelly:  Ascention to RB2. 

IMO, the RBBC begins if Jones misses time. 

Two plodding backs for 110 touches each with a QB who likes to run for TDs.

Fantasy wasteland. Love the Redskins passing game - DJax underrated. Cousins a beast.

running game is a mess. If they bring in Hillman as some here have suggested I'm all in. 

Lost in all this is did people actually watch the video posted by OP? Kelley looks like a downright pedestrian backup RB. Zero special about his game. I'm talking Brandon Bolden levels of mediocrity. 

We have a massive Skins Homer in 14-team dynasty and it took a Marshall IR for him to finally add this guy. 

Love the post and love the enthusiasm but as the old formula says Talent + Opportunity. And Mr. Kelley is seriously lacking the former IMO. 

Look forward to page 32 of this thread though.

I agree with all of this. RBBC in Washington last year was bad for any fantasy owner that invested in it. R. Kelley is below average in seemingly every way. Matt Jones has never been a good RB at any level. He had fumbling problems last year and is has an injured shoulder. Jones is not guaranteed of anything at this point. As bad as the Redskins RBs were last year, they still have value if the touches fall the right way. Last year the Skins RBs outproduced Tennessee, Cleveland, Indy, San Fran and Jax. Washington RBs had 477 touches for 2240 yards and 7 TDs. The TDs are an issue, but I also don't expect Cousins to run for 6 TDs again. It's certainly not an ideal situation, but if a RB comes out of there with the 50% of the touches and the GL work, then he can be a valuable RB3/4.

 

[tombonneau]

Yeah, I just don't see how Matt Jones and his 3.4 YPC isn't safe. That's elite. Combine that with his late 3rd round pedigree and clean-ish bill of health, let's just pencil in Jones as the only RB in Washington. 

I'm not a member of the Matt Jones Fan Club. I'm avoiding the entire RB situation. Just seems capricious to think there is a 10% chance a young starting RB who the coaching staff believes in enough to let an established vet walk loses his job (sans injury) to an even more unimpressive UDFA RB.

 

[Eminence]

Redskins play again tonight.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

With Marshall going on IR, I think you look to draft Kelley near the end of upcoming drafts.  All formats.  He shouldn't be on waivers anymore, he's probably got a better shot of turning into something that your last round pick.

2 weeks ago he was like hitting a 5 digit lotto ticket.

1 week ago he was like hitting a 3 digit lotto ticket.

Today he is now a 1 digit lotto ticket.

Actually, I'm just trying to shoe horn in more lotto ticket talk since it's everywhere lately, even invaded the daily email updates.

The current reality is that there is a % chance that Kelley gets this job, and if he gets it, there is a % chance he is a solid RB3, and a smaller % chance he actually somehow turns into a RB2, and a yet smaller % chance he turns into an RB1.  Whatever he ends up being, I'm not sure, but I do know that over the past couple of weeks those %s have gotten to be bigger numbers.  Everything is breaking right for this kid.

You know how on lotto tickets, you can get 1 number + powerball and win like $3? 

Yeah, that seems closer to this. 

I agree that there is a % chance he gets a job (splita carries).

I agree there's a % chance he plods his way to RB3 fantasy relevance, IF Matt Jones not only loses his job but also loses all contributions (very very slim, since he was good enough to win the job, e.g. better than Kelly). 

I disagree that there's a % chance he puts up RB2 numbers in FFB.

and I can imagine no scenario in which he puts up RB1 numbers in fantasy football. Yes, mathematically, there's a % chance. But that seems like the long-shottiest long shot that ever shot. A decimal and a whooooole lotta zeroes before the number. 

But it's getting more interesting, for sure, which in the least means 4 more pages of this topic, which has been pretty entertaining so far! 

 

[(HULK)]

So you think there is a 10% chance that he overtakes Matt Jones as the starting RB? Seems overzealous. He's a MJ handcuff and bottom of roster guy in 14+ teamers. 

Yup.

Matt Jones isn't that good.  Skins starting RB will be a lesser of two evils choice for the front office. 

 

[(HULK)]

I'll put numbers on it, as of today:

10% chance Kelley takes the starting job from Jones

8% chance he is at least an RB3

4% chance he is at least an RB2

1% chance he is a top 12 RB

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Not the NFL's depth charts...  We don't know that Jones won't be ready either...  And Kelley's "value" hinges on that (among other variables)...  and as Hot Sauce said 8 times, if you would trot Kelly out there in week one for his 20 carries, you probably didn't draft very well.

I don't think anyone in this thread is recommending starting him in week 1.  The point in owning a RB that has an opportunity in week 1 is that if he plays well maybe he parlays that into a week 2 start, and so on.  That shouldn't have to be explained.  But even if it did need to be explained, it already was.  This whole "if you're relying on him week 1 you're a terrible drafter" nonsense is like a Donald Trump argument.  You keep repeating it because you think you're making an awesome point that everyone has skipped over.  But the reality is that it's just so irrelevant and absurd that no one has bothered retorting it much and repeating it over and over again only makes you look worse and worse because we're beginning to realize that you think you're saying something really smart.

And really, even if someone does end up starting him week 1 it's not necessarily the end of the world or an indictment of their drafting ability.  There are plenty of people that are going to be rolling out a Detroit RB or Miami RB or Baltimore RB or New England RB, etc without really having any clarity on which one is the right guy yet.  If Matt Jones is out week 1 (not a given, obviously) then having a guy that is pretty likely to get a good bulk of the work that week while those other situations clear up has some value to some people.  If Jones is out week 1 it's almost a certainty that the FBGs week 1 start/sit projections will have him ranked higher than some guys people have in their starting lineup.  That's not necessarily an indictment of someone's drafting because, as some people seem to have trouble realizing, we draft for a season and not just week 1.  This is especially true in modern FF where a lot of people strategically wait on RBs and load up elsewhere.  Those drafters typically load up on a mid round RBs, many of which have upside but the hardest part is figuring out which ones to start early on (if that part were easy, they wouldn't be available in the middle rounds).  Being able to push that decision back a week after seeing what happens out on the field in the regular season is a legitimate advantage for people with those drafting approaches.