Sean Payton Steps Down As The Coach Of The New Orleans Saints (1 Viewer)

[Doug B]

Historically bad defenses that led to 3 straight 7-9 seasons. 

Bountygate fallout (loss of important draft picks) plus the Steve Spagnuolo-as-DC misstep plus terrible drafts for a few years running once the full complement of picks were available. Rob Ryan was his dad for one season (2013), then turned into a pumpkin. Gambled on letting (then) just-a-guy Malcolm Jenkins walk in 2014 -- he buckled down and developed into a Pro-Bowl safety in Philadelphia. Signed a hurt Jarius Byrd to try to replicate the three-safety defense of Seattle -- the money tied up in Byrd hamstrung the Saints for a few years. DE Junior Galette signed a big deal in 2014, racked up 10 sacks, then was hit with domestic violence charges in the offseason and had to be released. Brandon Browner was signed to help the pass defense, but he was unable to cover anyone without the "PI-is-legal" protections he enjoyed in Seattle -- plus he tore up the locker room.

That was a rough, rough time and a waste of three of Brees' prime years. Every move the team made to improve the defense pretty much backfired on them for three straight seasons. Jeff Ireland came on board as assistant GM and scouting director in 2015 and finally got the team's drafts to bear fruit, especially on defense. 

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Look, here's what gonna happen.  He's gonna spend about 2 months at home and be miserable.  His new wife (m 2021) is gonna want him out of the house.  He's gonna want out of the house.  He's gonna have nowhere to go.  So he'll snag a TV role and be mildly successful.  Then he'll miss football and be coaching within 2 years for some owner that will pay him $12M/year.  There's no new story here.  Same as it ever was

 

[menobrown]

Actually, the rumors started this past Sunday, January 23rd

No sir, these rumors started weeks ago, a day or two after the season ended.

ETA I even commented on it in the Trey Lance thread on Jan 19th: https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/789247-qb-trey-lance-sf/page/11/#comment-23833012

 

[Doug B]

ETA I even commented on it in the Trey Lance thread on Jan 19th: https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/789247-qb-trey-lance-sf/page/11/#comment-23833012

What did you see that early? Not doubting, just wondering what you saw back then.

First notice of it over on Saintsreport was Ian Rapaport's tweet on Sunday the 23rd. And we were dismissing that out of hand -- the media, for instance, has been calling that he was going to Dallas every offseason for years.

 

[menobrown]

What did you see that early? Not doubting, just wondering what you saw back then.

 

Michael Lombardi mentioned it initially on one of his podcasts that aired within a few days after end of the regular season but I can't recall the date of that particular episode. His report was similar to Ian's, not that Payton had made a decision but that he was mulling it over.

Lombardi got roasted by Saints fan's apparently after the report because he got a key fact wrong that I also ran with in the post I made that Payton had only one year left on his deal. Before Payton resigned he did respond to that mistake a few times by twitter and his podcast to say he realizes he made a mistake on the contract, but continued to say that Payton was mulling over retirement so he's mentioned it a few times before it went down.

 

[Doug B]

I remember people on Saintsreport bringing up Michael Lombardi now that you mentioned him

He was a guest on a popular local Saints radio show the evening of Wednesday, January 19th. If you look at the middle of page 2 of this Saintsreport thread posted on the 19th, someone mentions that the day before (on some podcast?), Lomardi "made it seem like Payton was cleaning his office out."

Lombardi tweeted this on Monday the 17th:

There's a lot of talk about Sean Payton leaving New Orleans... and he has strong connections with the Cowboys. That could have a significant impact on what Jerry Jones decides to do with McCarthy

 
But that was tying Payton directly to the Cowboys job, which we Saints fans have been auto-dismissing for years now. Lombardi didn't seem to have the goods that Payton was going to retire the following week.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Historically bad defenses that led to 3 straight 7-9 seasons. 

I get that, but I am talking 15 years.  Getting to just one Super Bowl with Brees seems like major underachieving.  And I will admit I hold it against him that he unraveled in the playoff loss to the Rams a few years ago after the atrocious non-call on the PI.  He unraveled and his team followed him over the cliff. 

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Someone liked this post, so it made me revisit the timeline:

Actually, the rumors started this past Sunday, January 23rd. On Saturday, January 22nd, Sean Payton was more or less incommunicado and on vacation ... not a hint of retirement rumors swirling yet.

Basically, it all went down in 48 hours. I wonder how long Payton himself was certain of is decision?

Blame Amazon.

They bought the rights to NFL games, which means they're pulling talent from existing broadcast teams, which means there are openings, which means there's room for Payton. But that had to all be finalized before he could say yes and resign. That's my guess, anyway. 

 

 

[Doug B]

Blame Amazon.

They bought the rights to NFL games, which means they're pulling talent from existing broadcast teams, which means there are openings, which means there's room for Payton. But that had to all be finalized before he could say yes and resign. That's my guess, anyway. 
 

Hadn't even thought of this. It's a good take that would explain a lot. A network can contact someone anytime during the season to talk about a broadcast job. So something could have been in the works for a while behind the scenes.

 

[BoltNlava]

He's 58. Unless he wants to call it a career now he'll be back. Just in a better position than way over the cap and no QB on the horizon.  Get in quality time with wifey and then back to the grind with a team with someone who can throw the ball down field with a lot more acumen than what he had to work with atm. 

 

[Boston]

Time for the rumors to heat up about where he ends up...wherever it is it will have big fantasy ramifications.

Pursuit of Sean Payton looms, if it hasn't already started - ProFootballTalk

In past years, while Sean Payton was coaching the Saints, November and December would be the time for Sunday Splash! reports (Payton himself coined the term) suggesting that this year would be his last year in New Orleans.Last year, which actually was his last year in New Orleans, there were no...

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Wonder what draft pick compensation Payton’s rights end up going for? They won’t give him away, but I can’t imagine they screw themselves out of free draft picks by asking for an unreasonable haul. I’m guessing a future 2nd or 3rd+.

The other interesting question is who does he raid from other staffs once he has a home. Are any of his guys on soon-to-be-outgoing staffs, or just sitting at home? Or any former QB coaches that could be elevated to OC’s, etc?

 

[SproutDaddy]

Wonder what draft pick compensation Payton’s rights end up going for? They won’t give him away, but I can’t imagine they screw themselves out of free draft picks by asking for an unreasonable haul. I’m guessing a future 2nd or 3rd+.

The other interesting question is who does he raid from other staffs once he has a home. Are any of his guys on soon-to-be-outgoing staffs, or just sitting at home? Or any former QB coaches that could be elevated to OC’s, etc?

I’d have the think if Gruden yielded 2 firsts, Payton would yield more than a second and third.

 

[Doug B]

Wonder what draft pick compensation Payton’s rights end up going for? They won’t give him away, but I can’t imagine they screw themselves out of free draft picks by asking for an unreasonable haul. I’m guessing a future 2nd or 3rd+.

I'd expect a one first round pick plus two non-first-round picks to be a hard floor for Payton's rights. Not sure if 20-year-old comps still hold up ... but Jon Gruden went from Oakland to Tampa for two firsts and two seconds plus $8 million.

Many Saints fans are banking on two firsts plus more for Payton's rights. I don't anticipate dealing with vitriol that would come from the Saints not even getting a first round pick for Payton.

 

[Doug B]

I’d have the think if Gruden yielded 2 firsts, Payton would yield more than a second and third.

Second or third, Conn wrote.

If Payton's rights net only a third-round 2023 pick, just punt until 2024. Almost better to get nothing at all than too little. Sound counterintuitive when you put it on paper, but at some point the Saints have to quit being the punching bag in trade negotiations. Don't have leverage? Fake it till you make it.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Just seems to me that teams value premium draft picks, and those cost-controlled rookie contracts, way more than the rookie picks of 20 years ago. Seems absurd to think that the rights to a HC contract would pull that kind of value in the modern league, but I could definitely be wrong about that! Seemed like a situation where the Saints can’t really afford to be too precious about the price because something is better than nothing. And I assume they want to remain on good terms with their SB-winning franchise-defining HC, so they’ll want him to get what he wants, to some degree. That’s why I thought a premium pick, but not a 1st, might be reasonable.

But truly I could just be wrong about his value to teams around the league. Coaches get traded so rarely none of us really know. I think Saints fans banking on multiple 1sts for him are going to be disappointed regardless but who knows.

 

[rockaction]

There's no way he's worth what Gruden was worth. That's wishcasting a bit. A first would be such a huge haul they'd take a first and that alone, and they'd skip to the bank doing it.

I think ConnSKINS26 is more in line with the current reality. Maybe two 2nd rounders, where they're spaced out by a year, or a 2nd and a 3rd. The reasons Conn gave were pretty solid. Teams don't throw away first rounders on much anymore.

 

[Boston]

Just seems to me that teams value premium draft picks, and those cost-controlled rookie contracts, way more than the rookie picks of 20 years ago. Seems absurd to think that the rights to a HC contract would pull that kind of value in the modern league, but I could definitely be wrong about that! Seemed like a situation where the Saints can’t really afford to be too precious about the price because something is better than nothing. And I assume they want to remain on good terms with their SB-winning franchise-defining HC, so they’ll want him to get what he wants, to some degree. That’s why I thought a premium pick, but not a 1st, might be reasonable.

But truly I could just be wrong about his value to teams around the league. Coaches get traded so rarely none of us really know. I think Saints fans banking on multiple 1sts for him are going to be disappointed regardless but who knows.

Agree with this...will also add he will be more than an HC wherever he goes...he will have full control over personnel as well.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I have never been convinced that Payton is this super awesome head coach (15 seasons with Drew Brees and you get to just 1 freaking Super Bowl??), but he is still a good one, and better than current ones, so he will be a hot commodity. He will obviously pick his spot, likely opting for a team with a good QB already in place and where the team is arguably a coach away from being a top contender. The most obvious landing spots would seem to be Denver (unless he thinks Wilson is not fixable), Arizona (I am sure Payton feels like he could do a lot with Murray) and LA Chargers (unless Staley makes the playoffs and survives).

 

[BladeRunner]

I have never been convinced that Payton is this super awesome head coach (15 seasons with Drew Brees and you get to just 1 freaking Super Bowl??), but he is still a good one, and better than current ones, so he will be a hot commodity. He will obviously pick his spot, likely opting for a team with a good QB already in place and where the team is arguably a coach away from being a top contender. The most obvious landing spots would seem to be Denver (unless he thinks Wilson is not fixable), Arizona (I am sure Payton feels like he could do a lot with Murray) and LA Chargers (unless Staley makes the playoffs and survives).

Now Imagine having TWO Drew Breese's over the last 30 years and you'll know how us Packers fans feel w/only TWO lousy Superbowls. We should have at least 6-10 of them, further solidifying the GB Packers as the greatest NFL Team in league history. Truly, the REAL America's team.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

There’s also the talent economics of the situation to consider. Which teams are realistically able to justify the cost of multiple 1st round picks for a HC?

Wherever he goes is going to have QB figured out—otherwise, why would a team not assume they’re getting a Belichick without Brady situation? They may trade for Payton to reset their organization and build their culture, but they aren’t doing it by taking the risk of trading multiple 1sts if they don’t have QB figured out. Right?

So a team without a franchise QB would be taking a monster risk to mortgage their future for Payton.

A team WITH a veteran franchise QB can afford to go all-in with Payton—but those teams need the cost controlled talent of 1st round picks, because they’re paying out the *** for that QB, also making them reluctant to part with the premium picks. This is an Arizona/Dallas type situation.

Another category I can see are teams in position to take a rookie QB in a decent class this year with a top pick—well, they can’t trade that pick for Payton and get what they need, and need top talent to surround that young QB with. So another group of teams reluctant to go all-in by trading multiple 1’s for a HC. Your Texans type teams.

The money zone you’re looking at are well-rounded teams with a good young QB that’s still on their cheap rookie contract, who don’t need the premium picks to figure out QB and can spend FA money to fill in those holes. That’s the sweet spot for Payton imo. Which franchises does that describe? Bears? Jags are out.

Fitting that description the best fit I can see would be the Chargers. They need to pay Herbert soon, but not yet. Staley isn’t horrible, but he and his OC choice hold Herbert back big time. So that could be the smash spot for team most likely to spend premium picks to bring in Payton and pair him with an elite young QB.

 

[SproutDaddy]

There's no way he's worth what Gruden was worth. That's wishcasting a bit. A first would be such a huge haul they'd take a first and that alone, and they'd skip to the bank doing it.

I think ConnSKINS26 is more in line with the current reality. Maybe two 2nd rounders, where they're spaced out by a year, or a 2nd and a 3rd. The reasons Conn gave were pretty solid. Teams don't throw away first rounders on much anymore.

Don't really get this reasoning. He's done more at this point than what Gruden had done before being traded. He's worth a 1st + easily.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I have never been convinced that Payton is this super awesome head coach (15 seasons with Drew Brees and you get to just 1 freaking Super Bowl??), but he is still a good one, and better than current ones, so he will be a hot commodity. He will obviously pick his spot, likely opting for a team with a good QB already in place and where the team is arguably a coach away from being a top contender. The most obvious landing spots would seem to be Denver (unless he thinks Wilson is not fixable), Arizona (I am sure Payton feels like he could do a lot with Murray) and LA Chargers (unless Staley makes the playoffs and survives).

Just as much as GB has done with Rodgers. You have to remember Brees had 3 years of his prime wasted with a historically bad defense and still took NO to 7-9 those years. He threw for over 5000 yds and 40 tds those years.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Teams don't throw away first rounders on much anymore.

Miami forfeited their 1st in '22
FORFEITED!!!



Teams will burn a 1st on so many things when they fixate on players. Think of the teams that burn "next year's 1st" in order to go get their guy at QB or WR or whatever the position.
I thought you were being funny, not laughing at you, but this hit my funny bone

 

[SproutDaddy]

Teams don't throw away first rounders on much anymore.

Miami forfeited their 1st in '22
FORFEITED!!!



Teams will burn a 1st on so many things when they fixate on players. Think of the teams that burn "next year's 1st" in order to go get their guy at QB or WR or whatever the position.
I thought you were being funny, not laughing at you, but this hit my funny bone

Look at what Denver just did. I heard Brandon Stokely talking 2 weeks ago about how Denver could get Payton next year for a 3rd. I just laughed my *** off at that notion considering their draft capital for the next 2 years.

 

[Doug B]

Teams don't throw away first rounders on much anymore

Haveya met Mickey Loomis?

 

[rockaction]

Look at what Denver just did.

Denver thought they were getting the franchise.

And MoP knows how much that forfeited first hurts them. They didn't want that to happen, but the league leveled punishment against them.

NO might get a first for Payton, but I doubt it.

 

[Statorama]

Payton brought me the joy of a Saints Super Bowl win in my lifetime. If he called me at 3am to help bury a body I’d ask if I need to bring my own shovel.

Edit to add: Saints are one horrible missed PI call and one miracle Diggs TD away from 3 Super Bowls, so things weren’t that bad in his tenure. I loved that each year the Saints were always in the Championship conversation and usually in the playoffs. I know a lot of fans would like to endure that level of disappointment.