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Return of "Stud QB Playoff Flop Theory" (1 Viewer)

[scooter]

[scooter]

Footballguy
A couple years ago I started a thread on why I was benching Drew Brees (the #2 fantasy QB) for Week 15. I was mocked at the time (in fact my original attempt was locked because the mods thought I was fishing). Well, I wasn't fishing. And I was right.

And now I'm back.

My theory is called "Stud QB Playoff Flop Theory". In short: Every year, at least one Top-5 QB has his worst game of the season during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16). Last year 3 of the Top 5 had their worst games of the season during the fantasy playoffs. In 2006 every quarterback in the top-10 had their worst games of the year in the fantasy playoffs. And I'm not just talking about bad or mediocre games -- I'm talking about their worst games of the year.

Summary of examples since 2000:

2000:

Culpepper (the #1 fantasy QB) has worst game of season in Week 14; Moss (the #1 WR) has 3 catches for 26 yards.

Manning (#3) has his ONLY 0-TD game of the season and his lowest yardage output (132) in Week 15; Harrison (#2 WR) has 27 yards.

Gannon (#4) has 3 INTs and only 136 yards in Week 16.

Grbac (#5) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 160 yards) in Week 16.

2001:

Favre (#4) has his ONLY 0-TD game of the season and his 2nd-lowest yardage output (169) in Week 16.

Manning (#3) has 2nd-worst game of year (0 TDs, 1 INT) in Week 16.

Brooks (#5) has worst game of career (up to that point) in Week 16.

2002:

Vick (#3) - on heels of his record-setting 173-yard game, he manages just 9 rushing yards and 125 passing yards in Week 14.

Bledsoe (#5) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 15-16 (0 TDs and 2 INTs).

2003:

Manning (#2) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 14 & 16 (0 TDs in either game).

Green (#3) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 2 INTs) in Week 16.

Hasselbeck (#4) has worst game of year (0 TDs/2 INTs) in Week 14.

2004:

Plummer (#5) has worst game of season (0 TDs/2 INTs) in Week 14.

Billy Volek follows his 492, 5-TD game in Week 15 with a 111 yard/2-INT stinker in Week 16.

2005:

Palmer (#1) has worst game of year (only 94 total yards) in Week 14.

Manning (#3) has worst game of year (116 yards, 0 TDs) in Week 16.

Bledsoe (#5) has worst game of year (3 INTs and only 153 yards) in Week 15.

2006:

Manning (#1) has only 0-TD game of year in Week 14.

Brees (#2) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 1 INT) in Week 15 (right after his 5-TD game)

Vick (#3) has worst game of the year (0 TDs, 2 INTs) in Week 16 (and 2nd worst game was Week 14).

Palmer (#4) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 4 fumbles) in Week 15.

2007:

Brady (#1) has worst game of year (140/0/1) in Week 15.

Romo (#2) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 3 INTs) in Week 15.

D. Anderson (#5) has worst game of the year (137 yards, 0 TDs) in Week 15.

Now, the primary argument against my theory is that you could have picked ANY three-game-stretch and found at least ONE stud QB with a horrible game. Which might be true. But that's kind of the point -- in the regular season, we're receptive to benching a stud QB. But in the playoffs, we stubbornly try to ride them to the championship (oftentimes ignoring the warning signs).

Let's look at this year's top-5 QBs:

2008:

Warner (#1)

Brees (#2)

Rivers (#3) - so far, so good

Rodgers (#4)

Cutler (#5)

Romo (#6) - missed several games so I'm including him

Now, the "easy" pick here would be Romo (with his tough matchup vs. Pittsburgh this week). But don't be surprised if Warner or Brees have a terrible game -- if for no other reason than the fact that they were due. When I called the shot on Brees in 2006, he hadn't had a bad game all year and he was playing the #25 passing defense. But I believed he was due, and I was right.

Only 2 QBs have thrown TD passes in every game they've played this year: Romo and Warner. I think one of them is "due" for a 0-TD game.

Am I saying that these players should automatically be benched? No way. What I'm saying is that everyone should explore their options thoroughly instead of blindly starting their stud. If it was Week 6 you'd consider benching Romo for a QB with a better matchup. So why not consider the same in Week 16?

Discuss, debate, critique, applaud. I may be eating crow after Week 16 but history says that's not likely to happen.

:goodposting:

 
It doesn't surprise me that a top-5 QB has his worst week of the year during weeks 14-16. It makes sense since you are basically just saying that a top-5 QB will have his worst week in this particular 3-week stretch. If you are talking about 5 QBs and looking at 5 separate 3-week stretches, on average, each one will have his worst week in one of them. So this theory, or whatever it's called, pretty much follows the law of averages and is not really ground breaking news in my book.

 
Interesting theory, I guess, but it's going to take more than "he's due" for me to bench Warner. The fact that he has no zero TD games to date is pretty much irrelevant at this point in the season. It has no bearing on what he'll do going forward.

 
warners schedule 14-16:

home vs STL - 22nd against the pass

home vs MIN - 21st against the pass

at NE - 16th against the pass but have given up the second most passing TDs in the league

theres no way to justify benching him any of those games.

 
I'm seeing several games onthat list that were played in inclement weather or in the cold. Games in NE, SEA, BUF, GB, etc. Playing in cold weather for passing teams has often limited passing numbers.

 
I was just checking some of Manning's numbers out and seeing if what was said in the OP was actually true and found several things said to be untrue or an exaggeration of the truth.

I used FBG gamelog history and also the FPT (fantasy points) column from these game logs (only go back to 2002). Here is all I looked up on Manning before deciding I had enough (only includes weeks 1-16):

2003:

Manning (#2) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 14 & 16 (0 TDs in either game). (these two were actually his 2nd worst and 4th worst of the season; week 1 was his worst & week 12 was his 3rd worst)

2005:

Manning (#3) has worst game of year (116 yards, 0 TDs) in Week 16. (week 2 against JAX was actually worse than this week)

2006:

Manning (#1) has only 0-TD game of year in Week 14. (he had 6 worse weeks than this one, while he still threw for 313 yds and rushed for a TD in this game)
Click to expand...
 
thatguy said:
Interesting theory, I guess, but it's going to take more than "he's due" for me to bench Warner. The fact that he has no zero TD games to date is pretty much irrelevant at this point in the season. It has no bearing on what he'll do going forward.
Click to expand...
This is the problem with the theory, even if you think someone is due or is facing a tough defense or has weather issue, either alone or in some combination, do you have a player a mid-level player with a good match-up and decent weather? I am under the asumption that if you have a top 5 QB, the chances of you have another are slim.
 
coolnerd said:
thatguy said:
Interesting theory, I guess, but it's going to take more than "he's due" for me to bench Warner. The fact that he has no zero TD games to date is pretty much irrelevant at this point in the season. It has no bearing on what he'll do going forward.
Click to expand...
This is the problem with the theory, even if you think someone is due or is facing a tough defense or has weather issue, either alone or in some combination, do you have a player a mid-level player with a good match-up and decent weather? I am under the asumption that if you have a top 5 QB, the chances of you have another are slim.
Click to expand...
I have Romo and Warner. Doubt I would sit one of them based on a theory, but weather and opponent will certainly make a difference.
 
David Yudkin said:
coolnerd said:
thatguy said:
Interesting theory, I guess, but it's going to take more than "he's due" for me to bench Warner. The fact that he has no zero TD games to date is pretty much irrelevant at this point in the season. It has no bearing on what he'll do going forward.
Click to expand...
This is the problem with the theory, even if you think someone is due or is facing a tough defense or has weather issue, either alone or in some combination, do you have a player a mid-level player with a good match-up and decent weather? I am under the asumption that if you have a top 5 QB, the chances of you have another are slim.
Click to expand...
I have Romo and Warner. Doubt I would sit one of them based on a theory, but weather and opponent will certainly make a difference.
Click to expand...
and this is a good example. with Romo facing the Steelers w/o Barber in what is at least is going to be pretty cold weather if not worst, there are solid football reason to not play Romo. Warner is a no brainer, but if your other option was Orton or Campbell or Garrad what is the better bet?
 
' said:
I was just checking some of Manning's numbers out and seeing if what was said in the OP was actually true and found several things said to be untrue or an exaggeration of the truth.
Click to expand...
I was going by my own league's scoring system. Every league is different.
 
[scooter] said:
' said:
I was just checking some of Manning's numbers out and seeing if what was said in the OP was actually true and found several things said to be untrue or an exaggeration of the truth.
Click to expand...
I was going by my own league's scoring system. Every league is different.
Click to expand...
I realize that everyone has different scoring. I just looked up Manning and regardless of how your league scores, it's hard to believe that what I found for Manning would make the comments you made 100% true for the 3 years I mentioned in my last post. Feel free to post his scores in your league for the weeks you are referring to along with the weeks I mentioned if what I said was incorrect.
 
Boot said:
DrJamesAndrews said:
What's next, the "16 teams will win next week and even crazier 16 teams will lose in the same exact week theory"?
Click to expand...
McNabb begs to differ.
Click to expand...
Mcnabb can go to hell. 1.6 points when he rides the Eagles bench. Pennington puts up 25. McNabb rides my bench with 31. Pennington puts up 10. He already sabotaged my playoff chances, in all likelihood he wont get a chance to do so again next week.
 
[scooter] said:
Now, the "easy" pick here would be Romo (with his tough matchup vs. Pittsburgh this week). But don't be surprised if Warner or Brees have a terrible game -- if for no other reason than the fact that they were due. When I called the shot on Brees in 2006, he hadn't had a bad game all year and he was playing the #25 passing defense. But I believed he was due, and I was right.

Only 2 QBs have thrown TD passes in every game they've played this year: Romo and Warner. I think one of them is "due" for a 0-TD game.

Am I saying that these players should automatically be benched? No way. What I'm saying is that everyone should explore their options thoroughly instead of blindly starting their stud. If it was Week 6 you'd consider benching Romo for a QB with a better matchup. So why not consider the same in Week 16?

Discuss, debate, critique, applaud. I may be eating crow after Week 16 but history says that's not likely to happen.

:thumbup:
Click to expand...
Warner already had his bad week last week- he only threw for 235 yards :pickle:
 
I appreciate any work anyone does and puts it put for us to see.

But, can't you just pick the top 5 at each position and get 1 to have their worst game in this 3 game stretch?

I just looked at last year

RB

ADP .30 week 14

WR

Owens 5.10 week 14

TE

Gates 2.3pts week week 15

PK

Crosby 1pt week 16

I haven't looked at 00-06, but I would think it could be close to that just being the way the ball bounces for NFL players as a whole, due to

-weather

-long nagging injuries

-players getting rested

-maybe a lost season and said player is not as involved in the game plan or the feeling that their season is done

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here is 2006

LJ #3

12.30 week 15

WR

Wayne #1

5.70 week 16

TE

Gates #1

2.20 week 15

PK

Wilkins #2

2.00pts week 14

A couple of instances the players have had a lower game earlier in the year, but by literally 1 or 2pts (at least in my league)

 
2005

RB

Edge#5

8.50pts week 16

WR

SSmith #1

2.80pts week 16

Fitz #2

6.30pts week 14

Chad #3

4.30pts week 14

TE

Shockey #3

4.80pts week 16

PK

Tynes #5

1pt week 16

 
Do those 06 numbers reflect Wayne's being benched at halftime? (not sure of the situation, but Colts were not playing for much from memory)

Was LJs 12.30 the lowest of all top 5 RBs? Cause thats still a pretty decent performance.

 
havox said:
warners schedule 14-16:home vs STL - 22nd against the pass --30th against the run, Hightower had 109 yards rushing first time, could be the Hightower show home vs MIN - 21st against the pass---good matchup as long as Allen doesn't plant him for goodat NE - 16th against the pass but have given up the second most passing TDs in the league---It's cold in NE in December, weather could be big theres no way to justify benching him any of those games.
Click to expand...
 
Truman said:
Do those 06 numbers reflect Wayne's being benched at halftime? (not sure of the situation, but Colts were not playing for much from memory)Was LJs 12.30 the lowest of all top 5 RBs? Cause thats still a pretty decent performance.
Click to expand...
LJ had a 12.20 game earlier in the year but those were his worst games of the year, despite 12.30 being decent numbersNot sure on Wayne, can't recall, either way still a low score.Chad had a 4.20 week 16 (his lowest was 2.10 in week 3)I guess my point is you can probably say a top 5 (any position) will have his worst game in weeks 14-16, and be very accurate.You can probably say top 6-10 (at any position) will have his worst game in week 14-16, and be very accurate.I haven't done a thorough job researching, but this was what just flew off my head, and with a small amount of research it looks to be very random.And the risk of trying to guess which 1 player in the top 5 will have his worst game in that time frame, coupled with the fact that then you would have to pick between 14-15-16 to guess which will be there worst week, makes it nearly impossible to even make an educated guess.
 
Any player has a 3/16 chance of having his worst score in Weeks 14-16 (19%). So any year 1 of the Top 5 would be normal at each position.

 
David Yudkin said:
Any player has a 3/16 chance of having his worst score in Weeks 14-16 (19%). So any year 1 of the Top 5 would be normal at each position.
Click to expand...
Maybe so, but I bet if you examined all the different 3 game stretches, the 14-15-16 stretch would have the highest rate of bad games.
 
David Yudkin said:
Any player has a 3/16 chance of having his worst score in Weeks 14-16 (19%). So any year 1 of the Top 5 would be normal at each position.
Click to expand...
Couple thoughts, yeah.If QB scores were set by rolling dice, so that there is no dependence at all on week, there's a 65% chance that at least one top 5 QB would have his worst week in weeks 14-16.That's before we take things into account like players not playing their full game. I spot picked Peyton's week 16 2005 game to check because he had so few yards. Sure enough, here's the stat line for that game:Passing CP/AT YDS TD INTJ. Sorgi 22/31 237 1 0P. Manning 9/12 116 0 0I'd say there's a lot more that needs to be looked at here to decide if there is a trend. And then on top of that, if there is a trend that top 5 QBs (who actually play the whole games) have bad weeks those weeks, is that trend different than it is for other QBs? If QBs 6-20 are equally likely to have their worst games, it doesn't help much.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
robin1970 said:
i better sit warner and play culpepper this week.
Click to expand...
As I stated before, I'm not telling people to bench Warner (or Brees, or Romo, or any other studs).I'm just saying that you shouldn't blindly start your studs just because it's the playoffs. Because those studs are just as likely to lay an egg in the playoffs -- if not moreso.

It happens to at least 1-2 stud QBs every year. Last year it happened to 3 of the top-5 QBs. In 2006 it happened to every quarterback in the top 10! It shouldn't be ignored.

I can't explain it, but it happens.

 
GregR said:
David Yudkin said:
Any player has a 3/16 chance of having his worst score in Weeks 14-16 (19%). So any year 1 of the Top 5 would be normal at each position.
Click to expand...
Couple thoughts, yeah.If QB scores were set by rolling dice, so that there is no dependence at all on week, there's a 65% chance that at least one top 5 QB would have his worst week in weeks 14-16.That's before we take things into account like players not playing their full game. I spot picked Peyton's week 16 2005 game to check because he had so few yards. Sure enough, here's the stat line for that game:Passing CP/AT YDS TD INTJ. Sorgi 22/31 237 1 0P. Manning 9/12 116 0 0I'd say there's a lot more that needs to be looked at here to decide if there is a trend. And then on top of that, if there is a trend that top 5 QBs (who actually play the whole games) have bad weeks those weeks, is that trend different than it is for other QBs? If QBs 6-20 are equally likely to have their worst games, it doesn't help much.
Click to expand...
That Manning game killed my run. Ironic that Manning will be playing right up to the end this year as they need to keep winning.
 
' said:
I was just checking some of Manning's numbers out and seeing if what was said in the OP was actually true and found several things said to be untrue or an exaggeration of the truth.

I used FBG gamelog history and also the FPT (fantasy points) column from these game logs (only go back to 2002). Here is all I looked up on Manning before deciding I had enough (only includes weeks 1-16):

2003:

Manning (#2) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 14 & 16 (0 TDs in either game). (these two were actually his 2nd worst and 4th worst of the season; week 1 was his worst & week 12 was his 3rd worst)

2005:

Manning (#3) has worst game of year (116 yards, 0 TDs) in Week 16. (week 2 against JAX was actually worse than this week)

2006:

Manning (#1) has only 0-TD game of year in Week 14. (he had 6 worse weeks than this one, while he still threw for 313 yds and rushed for a TD in this game)
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I kind of gave a clue last week Peyton might have a subpar game last week v. Cleveland. Speaking of which, this week, he's good for at least 275, 3/1. I'd also expect him to put up about 7 TD's and close to 800 yards this fantasy post season.
David Yudkin said:
coolnerd said:
thatguy said:
Interesting theory, I guess, but it's going to take more than "he's due" for me to bench Warner. The fact that he has no zero TD games to date is pretty much irrelevant at this point in the season. It has no bearing on what he'll do going forward.
Click to expand...
This is the problem with the theory, even if you think someone is due or is facing a tough defense or has weather issue, either alone or in some combination, do you have a player a mid-level player with a good match-up and decent weather? I am under the asumption that if you have a top 5 QB, the chances of you have another are slim.
Click to expand...
I have Romo and Warner. Doubt I would sit one of them based on a theory, but weather and opponent will certainly make a difference.
Click to expand...
Warner might be getting sat on my bench week 16 for his counterpart.
dmac37 said:
[scooter] said:
Now, the "easy" pick here would be Romo (with his tough matchup vs. Pittsburgh this week). But don't be surprised if Warner or Brees have a terrible game -- if for no other reason than the fact that they were due. When I called the shot on Brees in 2006, he hadn't had a bad game all year and he was playing the #25 passing defense. But I believed he was due, and I was right.

Only 2 QBs have thrown TD passes in every game they've played this year: Romo and Warner. I think one of them is "due" for a 0-TD game.

Am I saying that these players should automatically be benched? No way. What I'm saying is that everyone should explore their options thoroughly instead of blindly starting their stud. If it was Week 6 you'd consider benching Romo for a QB with a better matchup. So why not consider the same in Week 16?

Discuss, debate, critique, applaud. I may be eating crow after Week 16 but history says that's not likely to happen.

:goodposting:
Click to expand...
Warner already had his bad week last week- he only threw for 235 yards :pickle:
Click to expand...
Don't forget week 4 when he threw for a gazillion yards and turned it over 6 times!<3 Warner

signed

WarnerLov3r13

 
I think this was touched on before, but we need to keep in mind that the worst weather of the year usually happens in weeks 14-16, so that would increase the chances of a QB having a 'worst performance' sometime during these 3 weeks. Also, defensive coordinators have almost a full year's worth of current film to look at and come up with a defensive plan, again increasing the odds.

 
r0llin_game said:
' said:
I was just checking some of Manning's numbers out and seeing if what was said in the OP was actually true and found several things said to be untrue or an exaggeration of the truth.

I used FBG gamelog history and also the FPT (fantasy points) column from these game logs (only go back to 2002). Here is all I looked up on Manning before deciding I had enough (only includes weeks 1-16):

2003:

Manning (#2) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 14 & 16 (0 TDs in either game). (these two were actually his 2nd worst and 4th worst of the season; week 1 was his worst & week 12 was his 3rd worst)

2005:

Manning (#3) has worst game of year (116 yards, 0 TDs) in Week 16. (week 2 against JAX was actually worse than this week)

2006:

Manning (#1) has only 0-TD game of year in Week 14. (he had 6 worse weeks than this one, while he still threw for 313 yds and rushed for a TD in this game)
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I kind of gave a clue last week Peyton might have a subpar game last week v. Cleveland. Speaking of which, this week, he's good for at least 275, 3/1. I'd also expect him to put up about 7 TD's and close to 800 yards this fantasy post season.
David Yudkin said:
coolnerd said:
thatguy said:
Interesting theory, I guess, but it's going to take more than "he's due" for me to bench Warner. The fact that he has no zero TD games to date is pretty much irrelevant at this point in the season. It has no bearing on what he'll do going forward.
Click to expand...
This is the problem with the theory, even if you think someone is due or is facing a tough defense or has weather issue, either alone or in some combination, do you have a player a mid-level player with a good match-up and decent weather? I am under the asumption that if you have a top 5 QB, the chances of you have another are slim.
Click to expand...
I have Romo and Warner. Doubt I would sit one of them based on a theory, but weather and opponent will certainly make a difference.
Click to expand...
Warner might be getting sat on my bench week 16 for his counterpart.
dmac37 said:
[scooter] said:
Now, the "easy" pick here would be Romo (with his tough matchup vs. Pittsburgh this week). But don't be surprised if Warner or Brees have a terrible game -- if for no other reason than the fact that they were due. When I called the shot on Brees in 2006, he hadn't had a bad game all year and he was playing the #25 passing defense. But I believed he was due, and I was right.

Only 2 QBs have thrown TD passes in every game they've played this year: Romo and Warner. I think one of them is "due" for a 0-TD game.

Am I saying that these players should automatically be benched? No way. What I'm saying is that everyone should explore their options thoroughly instead of blindly starting their stud. If it was Week 6 you'd consider benching Romo for a QB with a better matchup. So why not consider the same in Week 16?

Discuss, debate, critique, applaud. I may be eating crow after Week 16 but history says that's not likely to happen.

:banned:
Click to expand...
Warner already had his bad week last week- he only threw for 235 yards :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Don't forget week 4 when he threw for a gazillion yards and turned it over 6 times!<3 Warner

signed

WarnerLov3r13
Click to expand...
at least I was close on Peyton this week :D
 
And the Theory claims another victim: This was Romo's worst game of the year in almost every scoring system.

 
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