In what is quite frankly a shocking turn of events, it turns out that I am now the highest ranker on Cordarrelle Patterson on either FBGs or DLF right now. Me. I'm not 100% positive, but I'm fairly sure I was the lowest on him last year. (In fact, I bet the reason I'm the highest today is probably the same reason I was one of the lowest last year: I do a lot of historical comparisons and attempt to be very Bayesian in my rankings approach, and those practices tend to urge patience both before upgrading and downgrading someone too severely.)
Jimmy Smith was the 36th pick in the 1992 draft. Due in large part to injuries, (including a broken leg), he didn't catch any passes through three years, hanging out on Dallas' practice squad before getting cut and latching on to the expansion Jaguars. He went on to arguably have a HoF-caliber career.
O.J. McDuffie was the 25th pick of the 1993 draft. He was supposed to help take over for the Marks Brothers in Miami, but he had only 713 yards and 3 TDs in his first two seasons combined, ranking 92nd and 60th at the position. He didn't turn into a star like Smith, but he finished 22nd, 19th, 36th, and 17th in years 3-6, which is a pretty solid "win".
Stop me if this one sounds familiar: Derrick Alexander, drafted 29th in the 1994 NFL draft, put up very exciting numbers as a rookie before taking a huge step back in year 2. His fall was even more dramatic than Patterson's- he went from 48/882/2 in year 1 to 15/216/0 in year two. Played the same number of games in both seasons (14 each), but started 12 out of 14 in year one and 2 out of 14 in year two. Troubling sign of things to come? Nope: Alexander finished as WR12 in each of the next two seasons, then later went on and had the best season in Chiefs' history (1436 yards, 10 TDs in 2000).
Amani Toomer, drafted 34th in 1996, was an electric returner in his first two seasons, leading the league in yards per punt return as a rookie and scoring three return touchdowns in his first two seasons. Unfortunately, he didn't do anything at all on offense: he basically did less in his first three years COMBINED (635 total yards, 6 total TDs, only one start) than Patterson did as a rookie alone (627 yards, 7 TDs, 6 starts). First glimpse of pending trouble? Nah, Toomer followed it with five straight 1,000 yard seasons, including top-20 fantasy finishes in four of the five years, (and a 6th place finish in 2002).
Muhsin Muhammad. 43rd pick. 724 yards and 1 TD through two years. 10,000 more career yards after that. Eric Moulds. 24th pick. 676 yards and 2 TDs through two years. Three career pro-bowls and a pair of top-5 fantasy finishes. Santana Moss. 16th pick. 36 yards and no TDs as a rookie, 418 yards and 4 TDs as a sophomore. 8th place and 3rd place fantasy finishes on two different franchises in the next three seasons. Roddy White. 27th pick. 458 yards and 3 TDs as a rookie. 506 yards and 0 TDs as a sophomore. Finished 14th, 6th, 7th, 5th, 8th, and 10th over the next six seasons. (Anecdotally, White was the 227th player off the board in a startup I did in 2007, and he would have been by far the steal of the draft... had his owner not cut him one week into the season.)
I can rattle off a dozen names of highly-drafted guys who sucked much more than Patterson did through two seasons and then went on to give 4+ years of quality fantasy production, usually with a top 10 finish or two mixed in somewhere along the way. This isn't to say that that's how things will turn out for Patterson. Or even to say that this is *LIKELY* how things will turn out for Patterson. Obviously sucking is never a good thing. It is unlikely that Cordarrelle Patterson ever amounts to anything for fantasy purposes. But he's the 61st WR off the board in recent startups right now; the market isn't pricing him like they think it's unlikely he amounts to anything, it's pricing him like they think it's virtually impossible he amounts to anything. Patterson's current price would make a lot of sense if you thought there was a 5-10% chance he was ever usable for fantasy purposes. I'd put the odds closer to 25%.
Remember all those things everyone liked about him last year? Those are still real things. He's still a huge guy and arguably the most dangerous player with the ball in his hands in the entire NFL. And yeah, he still can't run routes, but we knew coming in that he was a project. He only played 1 season of major-college ball. Antonio Brown had more receptions in one season than Cordarrelle Patterson does in his entire college and NFL careers combined.
People were overreacting to the positive stuff that he showed at the end of 2013, and his price last year reflected that. It was crazy. But now I think people are overreacting to the negative stuff that he showed in 2014, and his price is reflecting that. I think it's just as crazy. Cordarrelle Patterson is exactly who we thought he was. He's exactly what we always thought he was, and exactly what he's always been. He's a raw but electrifying athlete with a tremendous ceiling who was drafted high in the NFL draft because he can do things no one else in the league can. He's the same guy that the NFL Around the League crew, (including our old friend Chris Wesseling, who knows a thing or two about spotting electric talents), called
the most likely to take a massive leap forward in year 2. He's 24 and just entering his third season, and people are already writing his entire career off. No way he deserves to be the 61st WR off the board in startups right now.
Didn't think after all the time I spent bashing him last year that I'd be writing his apologia today, but here we are.