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RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (1 Viewer)

Fantasy-wise it boils down to one thing with Harris...goal-line TDs...I am a big fan of his in real football but last year in 10 games he had a grand total of 7 targets and with JJT added to the mix with James White I don't see him being overly involved in the receiving game again this year...so, if he gets the goal-line work now that Cam is gone he has a chance to be a quality fantasy RB but if that goes to Stevenson expect a lot of 15 carries for 70 yard games which is much better in real football than fantasy football.

 
Cjw_55106 said:
Um….. just because you made a bold prediction, doesn’t make the train yours.

@TripItUp has been conducting this train long before you got involved. In fact, your first comment was about legalized marijuana. You never commented in the thread again until after Michele was traded.

just one man’s opinion
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Opinions are like buttholes.

 
Boston said:
Fantasy-wise it boils down to one thing with Harris...goal-line TDs...I am a big fan of his in real football but last year in 10 games he had a grand total of 7 targets and with JJT added to the mix with James White I don't see him being overly involved in the receiving game again this year...so, if he gets the goal-line work now that Cam is gone he has a chance to be a quality fantasy RB but if that goes to Stevenson expect a lot of 15 carries for 70 yard games which is much better in real football than fantasy football.
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NE has been pretty unpredictable with deciding what they want to do at the goal line each year. Some years they designate "a guy," while other seasons they spread the opportunities around. Here are the carry distribution numbers from inside the 5 yard line since the season with their second loss to the Giants:

2020: Newton 19, Harris 3, Burkhead 2, Michel 1, White 1 = 26
2019: Michael 12, Brady 5, Bolden 3, White 3, Burkhead 2, Develin 1 = 26
2018: Michel 12, White 8, Develin 4, Brady 2, Patterson 2, Barner 1 = 29
2017: Gillislee 8, Burkhead 7, Lewis 4, White 2 = 21
2016: Blount 24, Brady 6, Lewis 1, White 1 = 32
2015: Blount 9, White 3, Brady 3, Bolden 3, Lewis 1, Jackson 1 = 20
2014: Gray 8, Vereen 8, Ridley 5, Brady 2 = 23
2013: Ridley 7, Bolden 6, Blount 3, Vereen 3, Develin 2, Brady 1 = 22
2012: Ridley 19, Bolden 6, Woodhead 6, Brady 5, Vereen 4 = 40
2011: Green-Ellis 21, Brady 5, Ridley 5, Vereen 2, Gronk 1, Woodhead 1 = 35

Given that the range was 20-40 carries across those seasons, IMO, projecting a number of goal line looks will be next to impossible. Predicting how they divide up that number will be equally challenging.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
NE has been pretty unpredictable with deciding what they want to do at the goal line each year. Some years they designate "a guy," while other seasons they spread the opportunities around. Here are the carry distribution numbers from inside the 5 yard line since the season with their second loss to the Giants:

2020: Newton 19, Harris 3, Burkhead 2, Michel 1, White 1 = 26
2019: Michael 12, Brady 5, Bolden 3, White 3, Burkhead 2, Develin 1 = 26
2018: Michel 12, White 8, Develin 4, Brady 2, Patterson 2, Barner 1 = 29
2017: Gillislee 8, Burkhead 7, Lewis 4, White 2 = 21
2016: Blount 24, Brady 6, Lewis 1, White 1 = 32
2015: Blount 9, White 3, Brady 3, Bolden 3, Lewis 1, Jackson 1 = 20
2014: Gray 8, Vereen 8, Ridley 5, Brady 2 = 23
2013: Ridley 7, Bolden 6, Blount 3, Vereen 3, Develin 2, Brady 1 = 22
2012: Ridley 19, Bolden 6, Woodhead 6, Brady 5, Vereen 4 = 40
2011: Green-Ellis 21, Brady 5, Ridley 5, Vereen 2, Gronk 1, Woodhead 1 = 35

Given that the range was 20-40 carries across those season, IMO, projecting a number of goal line looks will be next to impossible. Predicted how they divide up that number will be equally challenging.
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Yup...although I do think you can pretty safely guess that the ballpark is 25 and if a RB like Harris is to have legit fantasy value he needs about 7 TDs because as I said, I don't see him getting too much work in the passing game.

 
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Guy has a nasty edge to him. He isn’t afraid of anything. Like him. He might, and deservedly, become our starter after one or two games. I told you he was like Byers with better feet and better hands catching. It wouldn’t take a rocket scientist to figure this out. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Don’t know how I missed PFF’s comp to Arian Foster from before the draft. 

LINK
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Sheesh. PFF's write up is glowing. This helps to make more sense of NE's ease in sending Sony packing. I sure hope he gets some run at goal line and perhaps outshines in pass protection. It sounds like he has all the abilities he needs to succeed.

 
Scooby1974 said:
Sheesh. PFF's write up is glowing. This helps to make more sense of NE's ease in sending Sony packing. I sure hope he gets some run at goal line and perhaps outshines in pass protection. It sounds like he has all the abilities he needs to succeed.
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The part that doesn't make sense to me is if Stevenson is all that and a bag of chips, why was he a 4th round pick and the 7th RB selected in the draft? The tape and the write ups were out there . . . did teams have a different opinion?

 
Anarchy99 said:
The part that doesn't make sense to me is if Stevenson is all that and a bag of chips, why was he a 4th round pick and the 7th RB selected in the draft? The tape and the write ups were out there . . . did teams have a different opinion?
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Agreed. Seems a bit over the top, but then again, Foster went undrafted after all. 2021 was an odd year for recruiting too. I guess what concerns me is that he still has Harris, White, Jones, and Bolden (I believe) there. That's a lot of mouths to feed.

 
Tweeted by Jeff Howe: Rhamondre Stevenson dislocated his thumb last week at practice, per source. There's some optimism he should be OK to play Sunday against the Dolphins.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Tweeted by Jeff Howe: Rhamondre Stevenson dislocated his thumb last week at practice, per source. There's some optimism he should be OK to play Sunday against the Dolphins.
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Why did this news take so long to arrive?  I drafted him last night, and it was a late pick, and not too worried about the thumb. But I would have thought about it a little harder.

Just curious why it took so long to find out, unless I’m answering my own question now and they had to add him to the injury report.

 
VikingFrog said:
Why did this news take so long to arrive?  I drafted him last night, and it was a late pick, and not too worried about the thumb. But I would have thought about it a little harder.

Just curious why it took so long to find out, unless I’m answering my own question now and they had to add him to the injury report.
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Teams don't have to disclose anything as far as injuries go in training camp until the initial practice reports for Week 1 (which is now) and final game day designations for the start of the season (which is Friday).

And practices since the final preseason game have been closed to the media and the public, so it would be hard for anyone to notice (I believe the media may still be allowed to attend basic warmups at the start of practice).

 
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Anarchy99 said:
The part that doesn't make sense to me is if Stevenson is all that and a bag of chips, why was he a 4th round pick and the 7th RB selected in the draft? The tape and the write ups were out there . . . did teams have a different opinion?
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Based on preseason, Stevenson (7th RB), Gainwell (9th RB) and Herbert (16th) fell too far in the draft. Teams have lots of needs, so it happens. In the pass happy NFL, I don't get Gainwell falling so much.

 
Anarchy99 said:
RS was spotted at practice today and was not wearing a cast or a splint. He was not listed on the initial injury report. 
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What do you think the chances are of this kid coming from behind to become relevant? And yes, I am aware we are talking about the dreaded NE backfield.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The part that doesn't make sense to me is if Stevenson is all that and a bag of chips, why was he a 4th round pick and the 7th RB selected in the draft? The tape and the write ups were out there . . . did teams have a different opinion?
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Power backs just don't get drafted high any more.   I was always impressed watching Stevenson in college and when he landed in NE with what I perceive to be little competition, my fantasy breakout alarm went off.

The entire industry slept on him, buy they are starting to wake up, but haven't fully bought in as evidenced by his ADP and discussion.   I still think he's a buy low even though his value has been steadily increasing.

 
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TripItUp said:
Power backs just don't get drafted high any more.   I was always impressed watching Stevenson in college and when he landed in NE with what I perceive to be little competition, my fantasy breakout alarm went off.

The entire industry slept on him, buy they are starting to wake up, but haven't fully bought in as evidenced by his ADP and discussion.   I still think he's a buy low even though his value has been steadily increasing.
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Is he better than Damian Harris though? I don't personally think so. 

 
ATB said:
Is he better than Damian Harris though? I don't personally think so. 
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Different backs.  I think for this system, he's such a good fit because of the past success of power runners like Blounte and Dillon.

Harris is more versatile but give me Stevenson every time as pure power rusher.

 
Are people that down on Harris? PFF had Harris as the #2 rated RB in the league behind Henry last year. I just saw a blurb from Evan Lazar (IMO the most dialed in NE beat guy), who said as far as he can tell there will be no cap on Harris' carries this season and that could easily mean he could see 250-300 carries.

I don't think they will take out Harris to put in Stevenson. If their RB rotation has another back in the game and it's a scheduled drive with Harris out of the game, then I can see them putting in Stevenson and them taking White or Taylor off the field. IMO, the way Stephenson becomes fantasy relevant is for Harris to get hurt. But that's probably the only way. I don't see Stevenson getting enough of the workload to get Harris benched, and I know NE LOVES Harris.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Are people that down on Harris? PFF had Harris as the #2 rated RB in the league behind Henry last year. I just saw a blurb from Evan Lazar (IMO the most dialed in NE beat guy), who said as far as he can tell there will be no cap on Harris' carries this season and that could easily mean he could see 250-300 carries.

I don't think they will take out Harris to put in Stevenson. If their RB rotation has another back in the game and it's a scheduled drive with Harris out of the game, then I can see them putting in Stevenson and them taking White or Taylor off the field. IMO, the way Stephenson becomes fantasy relevant is for Harris to get hurt. But that's probably the only way. I don't see Stevenson getting enough of the workload to get Harris benched, and I know NE LOVES Harris.
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I'm not down on Harris at all. I just think Bill is a compartmentalizer. His philosophy is situational football, he adjusts the personnel to the situation. And who he decides for the situation is who excels in those situations. Harris is the meat, the between the 20s guy. He's getting you into the redzone. Rhamondre's strength is short yardage. He has shown a strong proclivity to get into the endzone, more so than Harris in my opinion. As much as I love Harris, my eyes can't deny what Rhamondre does well at the goal line.

 
Teezee said:
I'm not down on Harris at all. I just think Bill is a compartmentalizer. His philosophy is situational football, he adjusts the personnel to the situation. And who he decides for the situation is who excels in those situations. Harris is the meat, the between the 20s guy. He's getting you into the redzone. Rhamondre's strength is short yardage. He has shown a strong proclivity to get into the endzone, more so than Harris in my opinion. As much as I love Harris, my eyes can't deny what Rhamondre does well at the goal line.
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Like everything else, we'll see. I posted the NE goal line usage numbers the other day from the past 10 years. Up until now, BB hasn't pulled his early down back for an assigned goal line guy before. Some years he gave the RB1 all the goal line carries. In other years, whomever was in the game at the time stayed in the game so the rushing TDs were spread out among multiple players. But there hasn't been a "between the 20's" back that got pulled for a better or different option at the goal line on a regular basis. Maybe Bill will do what you suggest, but up until now he hasn't done that.

Another issue I have for Stevenson and Harris is NE will certainly have way more passing TD this year than they did with Cam last year. They brought in two of the best red zone TE's in the league, so they could easily off load a lot of red zone run scoring opportunities to passing plays instead.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Another issue I have for Stevenson and Harris is NE will certainly have way more passing TD this year than they did with Cam last year. They brought in two of the best red zone TE's in the league, so they could easily off load a lot of red zone run scoring opportunities to passing plays instead.
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Indeed. I have Jonnu accounting for a few of those rushing touchdowns as well. Jonnu is going to be the queen piece on the chess table in the redzone.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Are people that down on Harris? PFF had Harris as the #2 rated RB in the league behind Henry last year. I just saw a blurb from Evan Lazar (IMO the most dialed in NE beat guy), who said as far as he can tell there will be no cap on Harris' carries this season and that could easily mean he could see 250-300 carries.

I don't think they will take out Harris to put in Stevenson. If their RB rotation has another back in the game and it's a scheduled drive with Harris out of the game, then I can see them putting in Stevenson and them taking White or Taylor off the field. IMO, the way Stephenson becomes fantasy relevant is for Harris to get hurt. But that's probably the only way. I don't see Stevenson getting enough of the workload to get Harris benched, and I know NE LOVES Harris.
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I meant to ask, aside from posting others projections, have you translated your insight into your best guess projections?

Would it be anything like 250/1200/13 for Harris and 105/475/4 for Stevenson?

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
I meant to ask, aside from posting others projections, have you translated your insight into your best guess projections?

Would it be anything like 250/1200/13 for Harris and 105/475/4 for Stevenson?
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I will try to tackle projections on the weekend. I’d probably go with fewer carries, yards, and TD for Harris. I don’t think he will get double digit TD. I have doubts Harris will be available for 17 games. Stevenson is probably close.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I will try to tackle projections on the weekend. I’d probably go with fewer carries, yards, and TD for Harris. I don’t think he will get double digit TD. I have doubts Harris will be available for 17 games. Stevenson is probably close.
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Appreciate the projections. Wondering if I ought to drop Stephenson for Jones in NO given all the mouths to feed in NE. AND because NE RB's are like chasing ghosts most years.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I don't think they will take out Harris to put in Stevenson. If their RB rotation has another back in the game and it's a scheduled drive with Harris out of the game, then I can see them putting in Stevenson and them taking White or Taylor off the field. IMO, the way Stephenson becomes fantasy relevant is for Harris to get hurt. But that's probably the only way. I don't see Stevenson getting enough of the workload to get Harris benched, and I know NE LOVES Harris.
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I do envision a scenario where they spell Harris in the redzone with Stevenson.  Stevenson is a superior goal line runner IMHO.

 
I haven't watched the game yet but I heard the first play he came back in after the fumble, he missed a block and got his QB blown up, and was once again removed from the game. 

I'm still holding on to him but it seems like he's off to a pretty bad start. 

 
Keeping him mainly since I also have Harris. I wouldn't bury a guy because of one fumble when the guy in front of him also fumbled.

 
It will take some time for him to get back in the good graces but he will

Still people need to temper their expectations around him.  The NFL is littered with preseason stars that don't amount to peanuts during real games.  

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Superior by how much?  Do you factor Stevenson's fumbling problem into his redzone prowess?
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Stevenson is the best pure runner on the roster period.

It's impossible to know which RB will cure its fumbling problems first, but my guess is they will all protect the ball better going forward...also, stevenson's knee was down and it wasn't a fumble but oh well.

Stevenson > Harris long term 

 
TripItUp said:
Stevenson didn't fumble the ball, harris did.

Stevenson's bigger concern is that he got blown up on pass protection.
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If you think belichick cares about after the fact detective work I can assure you he doesn't.  The ball came out...he won't be happy.  And he screwed up blocking

 
killface said:
If you think belichick cares about after the fact detective work I can assure you he doesn't.  The ball came out...he won't be happy.  And he screwed up blocking
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harris had the real fumble...if you think the Pats staff didn't notice that, you're kidding yourself.

 
TripItUp said:
harris had the real fumble...if you think the Pats staff didn't notice that, you're kidding yourself.
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Call me crazy but i think Bill cares about both but Harris has 150 solid carries behind and is not a fumbler so he has that going for him.  

 
killface said:
Call me crazy but i think Bill cares about both but Harris has 150 solid carries behind and is not a fumbler so he has that going for him.  
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My point is on the fumbling front, Stevenson should be considered ahead of Harris.  Not to mention harris' fumble was in the redzone at a much more critical point of the game.

Pass blocking wise, I think it's clear Harris is ahead of Stevenson.

I also think it matters that Stevenson is a better actual runner of the football.  Eventually that will matter IMHO.

 
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