jm192
Footballguy
Agreed.
Dude has an easy path to touches next year. People will be down on him due to the other RB's on the roster. Don't leave your rookie drafts without him.
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RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Dude has an easy path to touches next year. People will be down on him due to the other RB's on the roster. Don't leave your rookie drafts without him.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Mostert just turned a spry 32 years old and was extended into 2025 this past off season.
Granted he will cost Miami $4M in cap space '25 v $1M dead cap hit to release him.
I agree that Achane should not be overloaded and likely won't in 2024.
Wright will start to see touches immediately, maybe just 6-8-10 touches here and there but I expect to see his number called
Mostert will be the red zone guy IMHO, he had about 20 TDs last year, more of the same while he is still playing for Miami.
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jm192
Footballguy
Yup.
Mostert also has a history of being banged up. It's been less of an issue in Miami, but at 32, there's reason to doubt he stays healthy all year.
Achane also had his own injury issues last season.
Wright could be thrust into a major role at any point next season.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
True, but I don't like to bank on injuries to make my decisions in the draft. However, this is probably the last year for Mostert.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Raheem Mostert has started 29 games out of 34 in the last 2 seasons. He suited up for 31 out of 34
His best seasons in SF he had totals carrying the football of 137 in 2019 and then in 2020 he had 104
Last 2 seasons in Miami he has 181 and a career high 209 last year resulting in his 1st 1,000 yd rushing season.
He's 32 years old and avg 11-12 carries in 2022, last year was more in the 13-14 range per game
I'm saying all that to point out he's in uncharted waters and eventually he is going to either be hurt or Miami is going to lighten the load a bit and save him for Nov/Dec/Jan
Miami running game was very herk n jerk last season, would like to see Miami make a bigger commitment to the running game.
Mostert does not carry the ball 20x a game, there is plenty of touches to go around, Achane growing as an NFL RB in Year 2 will have a large impact on the load management.
I think Jaylen Wright will look good in practice and force his way into the line up and have specific plays designed to exploit his talents.
His best seasons in SF he had totals carrying the football of 137 in 2019 and then in 2020 he had 104
Last 2 seasons in Miami he has 181 and a career high 209 last year resulting in his 1st 1,000 yd rushing season.
He's 32 years old and avg 11-12 carries in 2022, last year was more in the 13-14 range per game
I'm saying all that to point out he's in uncharted waters and eventually he is going to either be hurt or Miami is going to lighten the load a bit and save him for Nov/Dec/Jan
Miami running game was very herk n jerk last season, would like to see Miami make a bigger commitment to the running game.
Mostert does not carry the ball 20x a game, there is plenty of touches to go around, Achane growing as an NFL RB in Year 2 will have a large impact on the load management.
I think Jaylen Wright will look good in practice and force his way into the line up and have specific plays designed to exploit his talents.
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
If you are in a league where long TDs have bonuses, then Achane is a viable player today. If not, it depends on how injuries treat this roster.
IF everyone is healthy, I see Mosert as the lead back with Wright and Achane getting touches. I'm not sure who the "receiving back" is yet so watching third downs should be the inflection point.
IF everyone is healthy, I see Mosert as the lead back with Wright and Achane getting touches. I'm not sure who the "receiving back" is yet so watching third downs should be the inflection point.
jm192
Footballguy
To clarify,
I think Mostert is probably gone after the upcoming season (as you noted), and Wright takes over the Mostert role. So, if you're willing to wait a year, he'll get you significant touches in an explosive offense.
But you may not have to wait a year due to the injury history o Mostert/Acahne. You're probably not getting 16 games where you feel comfortable using him. But he may wind up being a solid flex option a handful of times next year.
I guess that makes me feel a little better about the year wait for Mostert to move on.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
All this talk but where do you actually pull the cord and draft him?
I've got picks 17 and 26 and I can't imagine I'm getting him with the 2nd of those two but there's going to be some nice looking Wr's in that area with significantly better draft capital.
I've got picks 17 and 26 and I can't imagine I'm getting him with the 2nd of those two but there's going to be some nice looking Wr's in that area with significantly better draft capital.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
He is a high priority for me to snag in keeper.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I personally don't see 250 in Achane's future.
I'd bet that the Dolphins' target is 150-200 targets.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Took him at pick 17 in a 14 team standard.
Everything about it felt like a reach tbh. Corum was there, went the pick after. Followed by Sinnott, Corley, Burton.
It's an upside pick that could easily be nothing. You're hoping he's the eventual replacement for Mostert but he could just be the yearly day 2/3 shot Miami takes at the position.
Everything about it felt like a reach tbh. Corum was there, went the pick after. Followed by Sinnott, Corley, Burton.
It's an upside pick that could easily be nothing. You're hoping he's the eventual replacement for Mostert but he could just be the yearly day 2/3 shot Miami takes at the position.
Big Nate
Footballguy
As much as I like the possibility of Sinnott and Corley making things happen, Wright could eventually take over the Mostert role. Of those guys you list I would likely take Wright. A case could be made for Corum but he might be in a timeshare as well.
Mostert and Achane haev showed they can coexist and perform together when both healthy. Wright could step into the timeshare and be a solid RB.
None of those guys you listed are guaranteed to hit so I likely lean Wright who has good upside with a very aggressive offense.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Let's all take a breath and just scroll over the production from the Miami RB 1 and 2 slots for 2023, let's see if there's even anything to get excited about
RB1-Mostert
209-1,012-18
1,187 yds total 21 TD
RB2-Devon Achane...missed a big chunk of the season
103-800-8
997 yds total and 11 TD
RB3/4/5-Wilson, Ahmed and Brooks combined for about 450-500 total yds on 110 touches
RB1 and 2 combined for 2,184 yds from scrimmage and 32 TDs combined, split over 50 balls between them receiving.
Now where does that stack up to the rest of the NFL?
RB1-Mostert
209-1,012-18
1,187 yds total 21 TD
RB2-Devon Achane...missed a big chunk of the season
103-800-8
997 yds total and 11 TD
RB3/4/5-Wilson, Ahmed and Brooks combined for about 450-500 total yds on 110 touches
RB1 and 2 combined for 2,184 yds from scrimmage and 32 TDs combined, split over 50 balls between them receiving.
Now where does that stack up to the rest of the NFL?
beef
Footballguy
| Team | Rsh TD | Rec TD | Tot TD | 2-PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jets | 7 | 11 | 22 | 3 |
Panthers | 7 | 13 | 23 | 3 |
Patriots | 9 | 16 | 27 | 0 |
Giants | 10 | 15 | 29 | 1 |
Titans | 16 | 14 | 31 | 1 |
Steelers | 16 | 13 | 31 | 1 |
Falcons | 14 | 17 | 32 |
that's => than 7 teams total touchdowns so I'd say that stacks up well.
Why? He was on pace for over 200 last year, and that's with coming into the season without a role. He was able to handle a sizeable role (23.4 touches per game) his final year at Texas A&M.
I don't think a fluky knee injury is going to make Miami take it easy with their top RB.
As for Wright, I think he's a decent prospect but needs an injury to be a factor this season. That can obviously happen, but let's assume it doesn't (it could just as easily be Wright who gets hurt) I'd say 75 touches is a fair over/under for Wright in 2024.
As a team they easily led the NFL in PPR fantasy points from the RB position, a healthy 55 points over #2(SF).
They did this with an improbable breakout from a 31 year old RB who had never had a big fantasy season, don't think ever a top 24 season, and third round rookie RB who was 9 snaps away from only playing in 9 games as the two major contributors.
It's the system, or at least the right kind of back in that system. I believe Jaylen Wright to be that right kind of back.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Because he doesn't have the ideal frame to carry that kind of load, particularly when you take into account the dolphins are expected to make the playoffs...probably want him at 100% for the playoffs.
Wilson and Mostert aren't finished quite yet either. My guess is they'll spread the touches around and they'd rather not give 250 regular season touches to achane if they can avoid it.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Greetings my friend
On a team that had 2,184 total yds and 32 TDs from the first 2 RB slots, Jeff Wilson managed 188 yds rush and zero TDs as part of a 3 headed bench w/Ahmed and Brooks
Wilson suited up for just 10 games last year
Let's not overplay those hole cards
-And yes, I'm check-raising you, Wright will make an immediate impact in 2024, Mostert will be able to have a managed work load, couple extra bye weeks for him.
Achane did average around 23 touches per game his last year at A&M, he was not treated like crystalware at all.
I agree with you Trip, he looked a little fragile at times last season but I think that is something he will make adjustments to when he absorbs hits and the like.
I watched him take some freaky turns or hits that caused his injuries, my hope is that's not something he continues to do.
The Achane/Wright combo is coming sooner than you think.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Mostert surprised me last year in the fact he stayed (mostly) healthy. He just turn 32 and is pushing the limits at the RB spot. Assuming he makes it through this year I'm not sure how much longer he will play. If I'm drafting Wright it is for long term in dynasty. I'd be fine sitting on him a year but he will likely be pushed up rookie draft boards as each week goes on.
I think he's a great fit and someone who can take over the Mostert role. Achane will get his touches but keeping him at around 12-13 a game is probably for the best. Achance can still do some damage with 12 touches a game. Doesn't take much for him to bust off a long TD run.
I think he's a great fit and someone who can take over the Mostert role. Achane will get his touches but keeping him at around 12-13 a game is probably for the best. Achance can still do some damage with 12 touches a game. Doesn't take much for him to bust off a long TD run.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Man. 32 is just ancient for a RB these days, especially one who gets dinged up a lot. Good value here with Wright for people who can afford to be patient.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
don't sleep on him, very good chance hes starting over Achane by end of the yr. The build of Morsett and Archane's speed... very easy to see Wright become the starter and Archane the back up when Morsett slows down
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Past performance is not indicative of future results. I would estimate a 25% drop in production for the Miami run game. A regression to the norm seems inevitable. I don't follow Miami like some of you in here. Why was the Miami run game so bad in 2022? What changed? Is that change something that you expect to continue?
Big Nate
Footballguy
Just for clarification he will be taking Mostert's role - Achane's won't change. Achane will still get his touches. This will continue to be a shared backfield. Achane was averaging about 14 touches(and targets a game). Just about right for him. The only issue with Achane is he needs to stay healthy.
As for Wright, like you said, he could eventually take over for Mostert but it will still be a shared backfield. I'm pulling for Wright as I think he's a great fit for Miami. I do not know if he will be more fantasy productive that Achane but Wright's best case scenario would be what Mostert did last year.
Miami's run game was right skewed by a few great games versus bad defenses like DEN, NYG, CAR. A regression to the mean is likely in 2024. OTOH, the oline had lots of injuries in 2023, possibly more depth this year, C Aaron Brewer is supposed to be as good as Connor in the run game, I think they bring in competition with a FA guard signing, but still a drop from Hunt. If they stay healthy, the line should be middle of the pack. They will use the 3rd and 4th WR, and TE more than last year. So, yet another reason for a drop in running numbers from 2023.
Achane was historically good as a rookie, and Mostert was great. PFF grades of 92.4 and 85.8. Brooks showed promise in the preseason and limited regular season snaps before the ankle injury. I think Jeff Wilson or Ahmed will be cut. I see a possible role for Wright in KO returns. Achane and Mostert are also good receivers, while Wright is unproven as a receiver.
Barring injury, I don't see a major role for Wright until 2025.
21 total TDs is not sustainable.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Oline issues like you said and Achane got hurt too and missed a bunch of games. Waddle was out as well and came back and wasn't 100%. A combination of all that hurt their offensive production.
Miami has a bunch off Ferarri's but has trouble keeping them all on the road....
Big Nate
Footballguy
That isn't what I was getting at. No one is expecting that. Just take my sentence for what it's worth. If Wright hits he can be in line for what Mostert did last year (generally). No one is expecting 18 rushing TDs. Just stepping into that role and having success. We all know 18 rushing TDs is nuts.
Tough morning so far on these boards.
I don't see a scenario where Mostert and Achane are not missing multiple games each.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Very likely true. Mostert somehow at 32 was the healthiest he has ever been. I would bet against that happening again.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
We're playing the long game in Dynasty a lot of the time anyway, but short term this definitely seems like a good bet to make.
There are likely touches for everybody, and game to game it'll probably be tough to predict.
I won't be betting on Mostert lasting a full season, even on limited carries however.
zamboni
Footballguy
Getting increasingly concerned as an Achane owner and may try to sell while there is still a window. The pass blocking ability of Wright may get him on the field a lot more than many think.
Tha Guru
Footballguy
Until I see Wright has improved his vision, I'm not worried about him. He has the tools but his vision is really bad in the games I watched him play. Now Miami can scheme him open some but you can't rely on that imo.
zamboni
Footballguy
I’m not enough of a scout to say he has bad vision. I go by what team brass seems to implying by their aggressive move to get him.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Rankings in PPR from a collection of experts
Achane-13th...3rd round? Seems high
Mostert-29th...1,150 and 21 TDs in '23
Wright-61st
Wright is not considered to be on many rosters in redraft to start the season
Achane-13th...3rd round? Seems high
Mostert-29th...1,150 and 21 TDs in '23
Wright-61st
Wright is not considered to be on many rosters in redraft to start the season
TomServo
Footballguy
I love the this time of year when every rookie is much better than the incumbent. Rookie fever! Gotta catch em all!!!
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Yeah. Projecting 3rd rounders into significant work in already fairly deep position rooms from the outset seems like bad process to me.
The headline, 'Jaylen Wright could become a nice role player in a committee next year or maybe later on in the season' probably doesn't get quite as many clicks though.
BradtheAg
Footballguy
Own Mostert and Achane in a dynasty, that was very nice LY. Debating adding Wright as the backfill for whichever gets injured in '24 and the potential to still control this backfield after Mostert departs
What I haven't figured out is which pick to target to ensure I get him. His ADP seems to be somewhere around 15-18, but this league is so RB hungry its ridiculous.
What I haven't figured out is which pick to target to ensure I get him. His ADP seems to be somewhere around 15-18, but this league is so RB hungry its ridiculous.
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Big Nate
Footballguy
There is no reason right now for Miami to move off Mostert and Achane as starters. When both these RBs were healthy and played they absolutely crushed it. The 2 of them worked great in a committee. They know the playbook and the coaches trust them. They actually did it on the field. Wright is great insurance should one get hurt. Long term dynasty Wright is a good hold for sure.
I like Wright for dynasty, just not buying the hype right now for 2024 production outside of an injury.
I like Wright for dynasty, just not buying the hype right now for 2024 production outside of an injury.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I was a bit surprised that Mostert kept such a strangle hold on the redzone touches given how electric Achane is in that area. Seems like those two have a fair bit of overlap in their skillsets and there is a big role for someone who is better between the tackles/short yard age. Not sure if Wright is that guy, but they never really seemed to trust Wilson Jr in that role.
Rankings and ADP for mock drafts are nice but in the last week in FFPC redraft leagues with real money involved and some usually pretty serious players doling out money this early in the year he's going as RB41, which puts in him at end of the 10th round of a 20 round draft. That may not make him someone worth putting on a roster in a 10 team/ 16 roster size type league but does in most formats.
I took him in the 10th round myself in this format and here is why:
The premise of all this relies on Wright winning the job of RB3, which will require him being a good player, and if he can't do that then this is all thrown out the window.
The biggest point I'm going to try and make is that in this offense, based on last season, that when both Mostert and Achane were healthy they both ate, there is enough to go around for two RB's IF Wright is good enough for the role.
So this range of drafts when RB's are drafted most are not clear cut starters, they are either in RBBC or are seen as lottery tickets if the incumbment starting RB gets hurt. This to me is where Wright has hidden value over most handcuffs because typically for your handcuff to have value you of course need THE starting RB to get injured. In Wrights case he does not an injury to a RB, he needs an injury to one of two RB's- which increase his odds over most handcuffs to get a larger role by itself but especailly so considering the injury history or Mostert in his career and Achane's last season.
So now let's look at Achane and Mostert fully healthy together, which was really only 7 games, Achane played one snap in one game and 6 in another so those don't tell us anything.
Mostert-19.12
Achane-21.7
(this would have been RB2 and RB4 in PPG)
So then the counter to what I just said could be, "dude, you are using a tiny 7 game sample size and one of those games, the Denver game, was as big of an anomaly as we'll ever see". Ok, fair enough, we remove it we are down to an even smaller sample size but it looks like this:
Mostert-14.77
Achane-16.76
(this would have been RB7 and RB12)
In those 7 weeks Mostert gave you top 12 RB performance, a RB1 in a 12 team league, in 5 of those 7 weeks and Achane did it 4 times.
In those 7 weeks Mostert gave you a top 24 RB performance, a RB2 in a 12 team league, 6 of those 7 weeks and 5 out of 7 for Achane.
Again, this premise is all based on Wright getting the RB3 job and being good, being better then say Jeff Wilson.
metoo
Footballguy
Achane will get his touches no matter what. Wright will eventually replace Mosert.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That's why i think Mostert at RB29 if that is in fact his approximate preseason ranking, that seems a little low even if he doesn't hit 20 TDs again.
It's early, it's May, maybe the tea leaves change in July/Aug as camp unfolds
Miami extended Mostert as well, gave him a bump in pay
Big Nate
Footballguy
Some good points here and that is a case for why you take him. I really like Wright and think he's a great fit for this offense. I think long term he can be very good for the team.
Having said that he has vets ahead of him and he has to learn the playbook and prove he can be trusted. I expect him to eventually get there but many rookies take time (and that is fine). As mentioned WIlson is still there and Brooks (who is a very sneaky good RB who many pass over).
I hope Wright makes it big in this league, especially as a fins fan, but there is risk he doesn't get opportunities this year. In dynasty I would gladly draft him. In a true redraft league I'm not sure I would have the bench space to carry MIA's 3rd/4th RB (at this point in time). Obviously things change and I would be ready to jump if there was a change.
zamboni
Footballguy
Sure, Achane will get touches, but if Wright is good himself, he might eat into both Mostert and Achane’s touches. This is definitely a wait and see situation.
