TampaMike19
Footballguy
RIP. Was a good run - wonder what he does in the playoffs and next year somewhere else?
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RB James Conner, ARZ (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter pghrob
- Start date
Boston
Footballguy
My guess is he stays in Arizona...he is a real good fit there and I can't see him getting a big deal anywhere else at his age and with his injury history.
Ghoti
Footballguy
Cardinals' James Conner: Dubbed day-to-day by coach
Coach Kliff Kingsbury said Wednesday that Conner (ankle) is day-to-day, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.
Conner underwent an MRI to address the severity of his ankle injury Tuesday, but it looks like the running back has at least avoided a major issue. That said, the Cardinals will likely wait to comment on Conner's availability for Week 15 until after evaluating him through a few practice sessions. Meanwhile, top wideout DeAndre Hopkins (leg) is set to receive a second opinion on his injury after having undergone an MRI. On a bright side for Arizona, Chase Edmonds (ankle) appears to be nearing a return from IR. LINK
Coach Kliff Kingsbury said Wednesday that Conner (ankle) is day-to-day, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.
Conner underwent an MRI to address the severity of his ankle injury Tuesday, but it looks like the running back has at least avoided a major issue. That said, the Cardinals will likely wait to comment on Conner's availability for Week 15 until after evaluating him through a few practice sessions. Meanwhile, top wideout DeAndre Hopkins (leg) is set to receive a second opinion on his injury after having undergone an MRI. On a bright side for Arizona, Chase Edmonds (ankle) appears to be nearing a return from IR. LINK
Ghoti
Footballguy
Not dead yet.
https://twitter.com/joshweinfuss/status/1471890146693812224?s=20
Cardinals RB James Conner was back at practice Friday, as was DT Corey Peters, LG Justin Pugh and DT Zach Kerr. No Robert Alford or DeAndre Hopkins (as expected).
TapRackBang
Footballguy
Would you play him over Rhamondre?
I've been riding him all season. And he's bailed me out all season. But this looks like a trap.
I've been riding him all season. And he's bailed me out all season. But this looks like a trap.
Exact same decision for me. Really wish Pats game was on Sunday to have a better sense of if Conner/Chase will be active for Cards.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Conner might be the most overrated RB in FF (due to his nice season). Edmonds is easily their best RB, but it really only matters what Kingsbury thinks. I suppose Conner could eek out another good season.
If I owned Conner, I'd definitely move him if I could get something decent.
If I owned Conner, I'd definitely move him if I could get something decent.
The Captain
Footballguy
Inactive
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I wouldn't pay a first - his numbers weren't actually very good if you take away the ridiculous amount of TDs. Now he should be in position to score a lot of TDs again in that offense but TDs can be a pretty volatile stat.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Will have to see who else the Cardinals bring in here. Unsustainable TD rate and all, but it says a good thing that they prioritized bringing him back.
Boston
Footballguy
I am sure they will bring another quality RB but that contract says they like him a good amount.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Danny Tuccitto@IR_DannyT
*after* regressing Conner’s rush TD rate w/ ARI to the mean, it’s still 4.89%. On 200 projected carries or so, that’s 10 rush TDs.
Hayden Winks@HaydenWinks
James Conner was 7th in expected TDs based on his usage last year, so yes, he's a regression candidate. But his TD mean is still sick. "Regression" doesn't mean he goes from 18 TDs to 6 TDs.
>>> LINK
*after* regressing Conner’s rush TD rate w/ ARI to the mean, it’s still 4.89%. On 200 projected carries or so, that’s 10 rush TDs.
Hayden Winks@HaydenWinks
James Conner was 7th in expected TDs based on his usage last year, so yes, he's a regression candidate. But his TD mean is still sick. "Regression" doesn't mean he goes from 18 TDs to 6 TDs.
>>> LINK
Boston
Footballguy
Agree with this...anyone going into 2022 expecting 18 TDs is asking for trouble...that being said he should still remain an effective RB in that solid #2/high-end #3 area...it's all about having realistic expectations for a guy like Connor.
Agree on TDs, but yards, and especially catches, should be higher this year. Its unlikely any Cardinals RB takes as big a share as Edmonds did.
In the (essentially) 6 games Edmonds was out, Conner was RB1, RB1, RB2, RB7, RB12, and RB17.
Conner's main concern is his own health, as even last year he missed a couple games, but he's always been a very good RB. He's an ideal RB2 in my opinion, and RB1 season is well within reach even if in the likely event he does drop to 10-12 TDs. His catches could easily increase from 37 to close to 60.
In the (essentially) 6 games Edmonds was out, Conner was RB1, RB1, RB2, RB7, RB12, and RB17.
Conner's main concern is his own health, as even last year he missed a couple games, but he's always been a very good RB. He's an ideal RB2 in my opinion, and RB1 season is well within reach even if in the likely event he does drop to 10-12 TDs. His catches could easily increase from 37 to close to 60.
foxco
Footballguy
James Conner Could Wreck Your Draft.
https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-james-conner-the-early-landmine
https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-james-conner-the-early-landmine
Sorry, but I just don't get this conclusion: "Conner stands as one of the riskiest early bets in fantasy ADP. To hit on his positioning, he needs to keep up his touchdown production and see a dramatic increase in passing game involvement. "
I think we all agree he's due for TD regression. But that's already baked into his ADP. He's being drafted as RB15. If he keeps up the TD production, then he's a top 10 RB. If he does that and see passing game involvement, he's possibly top 5. But the conclusion states he needs to do both to be RB15???
Based on his performance last year the TD's are not nearly enough to help support his value, not even close and that's if he had no regression. But on the flip side he could have have a massive TD dropoff and hold his value if his role in the passing game was as large as it was when Edmonds got hurt. That's the concern with him, that his passing game role won't be nearly that size.
Before Edmonds got hurt last year, weeks 1-8, James Connor was not that great in fantasy. He was RB30 in PPR PPG.
He was on actually on a higher TD pace for rushing TD's during those first 8 games then how he finished the season. Averaged 1.25 Td's per game those first 8 games to only 1 TD per game rushing when he actually took off but he also gave you 3 TD's in the passing game during the stretch took off and was winning leagues for people.
The major difference between Conner being a middling RB3 and league winner was not the TD's and as we can see here the TD's alone was not making him a top 15 RB. What led to him being a top RB was the massive difference in his passing game role he got when Edmonds went out. He want from averaging about one measly PPG in receiving production to 12, a solid 11 point PPG swing-almost what he was averaging in total before Edmonds got hurt.
Conner basically had two seasons, pre and post Edmonds. Looking at this as PPR
8 games with Edmonds: RB30 in PPG, 11.52 PPG, 4.2 PPG for rushing yardage, 1.05 PPG for catches/receptions/receiving TD's, 7.5 PPG for rushing TD's.
So pre-Edmonds getting hurt 65% of his fantasy production was from rushing TD's. TD's were not making him a top 15 RB, they were saving him from being almost totally useless.
Post Edmonds injury:
7 games, RB2 in PPG, 23.64 PPG, 5.62 PPG for rushing yardage, 12.01 PPG for catches/recieving yardage and TD's and 6 PPG for rushing TD's.
So even when Edmonds got hurt and he took off he saw very small gain in PPG for rushing, slight dip in PPG for rushing TD's but again the difference was this involvement in the passing game.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I hadn't paid much attention to Conner last year...knew he had a big time stretch where the ARI offense seemed to run thru him. But looking closer, that coincided when injuries starting tearing apart that offense; Murray/DHop/Edmonds in particular. ARI really had no other option.
And then when you look at that YPC...just seems like Conner is most ripe for becoming a full-fledged RBBC guy with a solid chance for TD regressions. I'm higher on Eno Benjamin than most, but I wouldn't touch Conner.
And then when you look at that YPC...just seems like Conner is most ripe for becoming a full-fledged RBBC guy with a solid chance for TD regressions. I'm higher on Eno Benjamin than most, but I wouldn't touch Conner.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think some are using Edmonds departure to justify Conner at ADP (or even reaching for him) without considering that AZ let him go because they had a capable replacement in Eno Benjamin. Barring injury to Eno, I don't see Conner having a large receiving role - and given Conner's own injury history, it might be in the Cards best interest to limit Conner's touches a bit regardless.
I also see his TDs regressing significantly. The Cards have more weapons now than they did for Conner's uber productive stretch last year. Hollywood Brown & Moore aren't a world-beating duo, but they should be good enough that the offense doesn't have to funnel through Conner. And if indeed Eno is taking on the Chase Edmonds role, Conner's slice of pie gets a bit smaller.
Plus, Conner stayed remarkably healthy last year. Injuries are difficult to predict, so I'm not saying he's absolutely going to get hurt, but the RB position in general takes a lot of abuse. I think it's likely he misses a game or 3.
All told, I will likely not be drafting Conner in redraft, and if I had him in dynasty I'd have already been looking to sell high off of last year's productivity. He had a rare set of circumstances catapult him to FF stardom, and I see it as unlikely that it all lines up like that again this year.
foxco
Footballguy
Great stuff, thanks. Conner seemed to do fairly well in the passing game when called upon, could this mean more involvement in this area from the start or does Eno automatically slide in to the Edmunds role? Don't think many believe Conner will be a #1 type again, but a mid-tier 2nd RB is viable, though if he loses most of his catches he's looking at #3 type numbers in all likelihood.
This IMO is the key to his value as I tried to explain in my post above.
I'm never been a big Conner fan but I'm not as quick to assume he won't have a good sized role in the passing game because he was kind of exceptional in that role after Edmonds went down and when you look at his career perhaps he's been sold short in this department.
He can't run routes like a CMC or Kamara but he has a higher catch percentage to target then both of them and comparable yards per reception. Again never been a big fan but can't knock his production when he's been used in that role.
Of course the major concern is he was not used in that role almost at all before Edmonds got hurt. A coaching decision. Will that be the same coaching decision or did his 95% catch percentage to target and new contract factor into Kliff using him differently this year? That, not TD's, will determine his value.
Actually he started to break down at the end of the season and missed some games.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes, his current ADP may bake in TD regression (and that’s almost a certainty to happen) but I think it also bakes in the fact that Chase Edmunds is no longer there and that Conner will be a workhorse back. I think Eno Benjamin does see a good part or what Edmunds saw last season - plus Darrell Williams is also now in the mix as well. Conner could conceivably see less work and a regression in TDs which is why that article seems spot on to me. I have slot 4 in my only redraft (14 team league) and I’d love it if Conner is gone before my second round pick.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
yes, sorry - I meant during his extremely productive stretch of games without Edmonds.
Timing-wise his injuries were a disaster for playoff teams. In my long-standing 12-team dynasty league the 1-seed got bounced 1st round because Conner got hurt.
Still, it seems like not everyone noticed because only so many people make the playoffs.
If his ~3 games missed came in the middle of the season we’d collectively be talking quite a bit more about his injury history. Most articles I’ve seen only mention his likely TD regression.
And fair point about him being a decent receiver / dump off candidate for Murray. To that I’d suggest having Brown, Moore, Banjamin, and after 6 games Hopkins will cut into RB receptions in general. That’s an offense that wants to be vertical but was forced to dump it off quite a bit last year.
But you’re probably right in that we shouldn’t completely write off Conner being used as a receiver. He’ll get some love there - just nowhere near as much as 2021, IMO.
To me Conner is going to be a startable and good fantasy RB this year. The problem is his price tag. He likely has to hit his ceiling to return value so it's a bad draft idea because of that. No room to get value from the pick. I think he is a great RB2 to have this year but not at an RB1 price tag.
Good stuff. Love the discussion and thought here in the Shark Pool.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
100% agreed. I’m not as gloom and doom as FBG is, calling him a land mine.
Like you, I just think he’s overpriced. And I’m sure he’ll be reached for in a number of leagues by folks who go stud TE or stud WR strategy, with sugar plum visions of getting 18 TDs and a bushel-full of receptions.
Agree he’s a perfect RB2, which was his draft value last year - then he delivered a much higher than expected ceiling.
This year it’s going to be difficult to get ROI.
Man, it really goes to show the difference in where people mock or look at ADPs. I'm routinely seeing/getting Conner in round 4.
I would strongly disagree that his TDs are going to decrease by a large margin. Unless Kingsbury 100% changes his playcalling, Conner should hit 12+ TDs, and could very well stay in the 15-20 range. Very few HC in the NFL features his RB more in the redzone, and that's not just a 2021 anamoly, look at Drake in 2020-2nd half of 2019, or David Johnson in the 1st half of 2019, and Conner is better than those guys.
I've got Conner as RB13 and would be happy with him at the 2/3 turn. The only thing keeping him out of my top-10, is that he's probably the least durable RB in the NFL. He's missed 2-6 games in every season of his career.
I would strongly disagree that his TDs are going to decrease by a large margin. Unless Kingsbury 100% changes his playcalling, Conner should hit 12+ TDs, and could very well stay in the 15-20 range. Very few HC in the NFL features his RB more in the redzone, and that's not just a 2021 anamoly, look at Drake in 2020-2nd half of 2019, or David Johnson in the 1st half of 2019, and Conner is better than those guys.
I've got Conner as RB13 and would be happy with him at the 2/3 turn. The only thing keeping him out of my top-10, is that he's probably the least durable RB in the NFL. He's missed 2-6 games in every season of his career.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If it was that easy more backs that have done it in the past would have repeated - most did not.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
RB seems especially murky this year outside of the first 5 or so guys, and guys like Conner are part of that murk haha
Some good analysis here. I think if Conner can stay healthy, he's going to be a big piece of the offense. Williams and Benjamin don't seem like a huge threat to me, but are great backups/relief guys. Will Conner be a workhorse RB1? No, probably not. But in his price range I think he's a solid RB2/Flex guy to start the season. I could see him having a solid start, and then falling off as the season went on. Would look to sell after a few early big games depending on how the Williams and Benjamin look. Definitely something to look at as camps start.
Full disclosure: I can keep him for 2$ on a 200$ auction budget and almost certainly will.
Some good analysis here. I think if Conner can stay healthy, he's going to be a big piece of the offense. Williams and Benjamin don't seem like a huge threat to me, but are great backups/relief guys. Will Conner be a workhorse RB1? No, probably not. But in his price range I think he's a solid RB2/Flex guy to start the season. I could see him having a solid start, and then falling off as the season went on. Would look to sell after a few early big games depending on how the Williams and Benjamin look. Definitely something to look at as camps start.
Full disclosure: I can keep him for 2$ on a 200$ auction budget and almost certainly will.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
that’s partly where you lose me. That “if” should be in flashing neon lights, as it’s doing all the heavy lifting here.
I agree with the conclusion here, but the premise is a bit off - he’s seems like he’ll be priced as a low-end RB1.
That’s why @Gally & I are suggesting he would have to hit his ceiling to justify his draft price. If that changed by the time I’m drafting redraft, and I could get him in the 4th, I’d be interested.
I see him more as an early 3rd or (gasp!) late 2nd round pick. There are just too many other players I’d rather have thereZ
that’s a bargain, and you’d be crazy to not hold at that value.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'm not in any new leagues, so I'm not drafting other than rookie or devy drafts, but I would think in a startup he is going too early for my liking. The guy has an injury past and is probably due and is getting older and isn't much in the receiving game, is TD dependent, averaged 3.7 yards per rush, so if I were drafting in a startup he wouldn't be on my team. In dynasty he is definitely a sell without question. If I were a rebuilding team I would trade him for an early 2nd in 2023 and not hesitate.
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Best ball drafts I have done, once in a while he goes there, but usually I see him going at then end of the 3rd or early 4th. I think that's a fair price.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree. It’s hard to trust ADP right now as most of it is based on BB leagues.
I’ll have to wait for redraft season to see where I’m at on Conner.
