Ilov80s
Footballguy
Lions have Monty so they kind of already have that other back NE might get. I think Gibbs over Jacobs is ok if the contract issue is a real concern for you. I still prefer ETN but I get the PPR upside Gibbs brings.
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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
No, it's pretty standard and in line with his ADP.
Deamon
Footballguy
He is creeping up there, but Jacobs and Stevenson are still quite a bit in front of him in ADP, usually going late 2nd/early 3rd, as Gibbs is going consistently in the 4th (now creeping up into late 3rd)
I've only been playing FFPC this year and in that format covering recent drafts he's ahead of Jacobs, one spot behind Stevenson, and all way ahead of ETN-who is the only one whose ADP is round 4.
markrc99
Footballguy
I agree with Travo, the relevant part of your question is the format. In dynasty or even a keeper league where you get to control the player for at least two seasons, he's going to be gold. Very talented with a high football IQ & mindset, big in a team's locker room. In redraft there's a very good chance he'll help you win that league. However, is he going to be pivotal in getting you there? Jonathan Taylor, among many others (including Tiki Barber), needed time to acclimate.
What then? Well, if you think Gibbs will assume volume right out of the gate, then there's also what's referred to as the rookie wall. Consider whether this team has playoff aspirations & whether he's the only player they have? The only RB they have? Oh, they want him alright , but when might be a thing.
Deamon
Footballguy
I don't know, where are you getting this info from? The draft sharks info is pretty messed up, and says that Etienne is going behind Gibson, Robinson, Dillon, Penny, Charbonnet, etc.
The info is from actual FFPC leagues. Should be ok to give this info here as it's not a full on fantasy site but Fantasymojo has all FFPC ADP. It's not free so you can't just go look it up without paying.
But trust me when I say all the info I'm giving you is accurate, not sure what Draftsharks info is all about. Gibbs over the last 3-5 days has been going neck and neck vs Rhamondre as RB's 9 and 10 and depending on contest right next to one another in the mid third. Jacobs is about half a round later, and ETN close to a full round after Jacobs. Those other RB's you mentioned are more like 8th round or later players.
Now that Elliot signed in NE I'd be my life that Gibbs will now be getting drafted ahead of Jacobs, Stevenson and ETN. My guess is the only thing that might change that from now till end of drafting season is an injury or Jacobs reporting. Which he will, but he's got some issues worrying me especially in that format.
But back to the original question on is it crazy to take Gibbs over those other RB's. Not only no but depending on what event you play it's going to be standard now.
Deamon
Footballguy
Fair enough, I'll take your word for it as I don't have access to that info. Just surprises me.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Early 2nd, I'm not waiting any no longer for the 3/4 turn.
Weebs210
Footballguy
Ballsy and I like it but man getting him in the third feels so good.
Chaka
Footballguy
Where does that place him among RBs off the board? 8?
I have to tap the brakes a bit on the hype. There's just too many mouths to feed there, including another RB they signed with a big guarantee before even drafting Gibbs. As the father of Georgia Tech and Alabama grads, no one wants to see Jahmyr succeed more than me. But he is, this year, a committee back who will likely cede most of the goal line work. That's not worth the ADP I'm seeing. That's Austin Ekeler of a few years ago. Gibbs' time will come.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
^ remove QJ from the equation, add someone more palatable, he might go for it. maybe?
Gibbs is going to make people forget about David Montgomery by end of the 1st quarter of the first regular season game. There's simply no comparison. I'm not sure why people think Monty is the starter and Gibbs is the Jamal Williams role - I see it as the other way around. Monty is the battering ram td guy from the 3 yard line, gibbs is the speed demon who can't be caught. please check your ego at the door if you've dumped your eggs in the Monty basket you're going to be disappointed. guy couldn't be the best RB in chicago behind a very good o-line, now he's gonna be a star? nope. he's a jag. Gibbs is the one with the superstar potential.
Gibbs is going to make people forget about David Montgomery by end of the 1st quarter of the first regular season game. There's simply no comparison. I'm not sure why people think Monty is the starter and Gibbs is the Jamal Williams role - I see it as the other way around. Monty is the battering ram td guy from the 3 yard line, gibbs is the speed demon who can't be caught. please check your ego at the door if you've dumped your eggs in the Monty basket you're going to be disappointed. guy couldn't be the best RB in chicago behind a very good o-line, now he's gonna be a star? nope. he's a jag. Gibbs is the one with the superstar potential.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I get Alvin Kamara rookie year (2017) vibes all over this backfield situation. For reference:
Ingram: 230/1124/12; 58/416/0
Kamara: 120/728/8; 81/826/5
...their #1 WR; Michael Thomas 104/1245/5
Past Amon-Ra...the Lions have jack for other WR's. Jameson Williams gets back Week 7, but he's got no more pedigree than Gibbs and if Goff/offense are in rhythm, Gibbs should be entrenched.
I think both eat.
Ingram: 230/1124/12; 58/416/0
Kamara: 120/728/8; 81/826/5
...their #1 WR; Michael Thomas 104/1245/5
Past Amon-Ra...the Lions have jack for other WR's. Jameson Williams gets back Week 7, but he's got no more pedigree than Gibbs and if Goff/offense are in rhythm, Gibbs should be entrenched.
I think both eat.
Chaka
Footballguy
When did the bolded happen?
This. Kamara was #3 RB that year in half-ppr, and Ingram actually finished as RB #6. I think if Montgomery stayed healthy, and runs well behind that offensive line there is a world where he could finish top 15 because of that offense.
Gibbs is a stud. He passes the
test, has elite pass catching ability, very elusive, super explosive, (he is faster than Kamara), and a threat to take it to the house on any play.Draft him and stop trying to outsmart the competition.
There is a world where
Monty is the “starter”
Monty is the Jamaal Williams role
Gibbs is a “superstar”
Your scenario isn’t the only one ya know
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yeah, people get into the "one or the other" mode when sometimes the answer is both or neither.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Or even, depends when you are talking. One part of the year the answer is this guy and then later it's the other guy. You are right it's more complicated than choose A or B.
goose_egged
Footballguy
This might be true. I don't have much of a talent evaluation on Gibbs. I'm focused on his role. Even if he's not as good as Kamara, if he gets the 7.5 carries per game plus 6.3 targets per game Kamara got as a rookie then Gibbs will have a pretty nice fantasy season if he's any better than JAG.
Detroit's level of investment in Gibbs doesn't exactly tell me how talented he is, but it does tell me how talented Detroit thinks he is and their opinion of Gibbs plus their investment in him leads me to expect they will feature him heavily. 15 ops/game sounds about right.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
Agreed 100% with the above.
Also, there is recent precendent for a guy of his stature doing big things as a rookie and beyond. Two of them, actually... Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles. That said, let's not get carried away. They were two of the greatest ever and their shoes aren't so easily filled. I do like Gibbs' talent though. And yes, Detroit clearly loved him.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
CMC too. He wasn’t elite as a rookie but he did well.
I put this here only because the argument that for some reason a team over-drafting a rb doesn't make him at all worthwhile.
Gibbs might be great or he might be another in a long line of terrible Detroit draft picks
Rookiefever
Footballguy
Aside from this regime detroit had a pretty good track record of drafting talented rbs. Injuries re to blame for the “bust” view point. That said, I really hope gibbs bulks up just a bit.
Chaka
Footballguy
Now that he is my RB2 I would like to formally revise my projections to 230 carries and 95 targets.
Giddy Up!!!
I would be shocked if he was over 200 carries, but the 95 targets Is possible....He could do 800 rushing yds and 800 recieving.
Chaka
Footballguy
I was kidding.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Bears have not had a good offensive line for a long time.
I am mostly in agreement with the rest of your statement but that comment was way off.
The Bears were taking Vikings cast offs and putting them in the lineup and the Vikings offensive line is not great either.
I actually think the Lions will use Gibbs to take the top off of defenses. He was clocked at 23 mph last year on a 72 yard run against Arkansas. For reference Tyreek Hill has maxed out at 23.24 mph. Gibbs is an excellent WR and has been wide open by like 10 yards in camp at times. I wouldn’t be surprised if he legit runs fly routes sometimes. They are going to use him all over the field. More and more as the season goes on. This means he will be in the game all the time including the red zone. He is going to make things difficult for opposing defenses
“We might use Gibbs in some ways that people don’t quite think we might”.
- Ben Johnson (Lions offensive coordinator)
He is going to be a ton of fun to watch this year
“We might use Gibbs in some ways that people don’t quite think we might”.
- Ben Johnson (Lions offensive coordinator)
He is going to be a ton of fun to watch this year
Ilov80s
Footballguy
With Jamo out, I think they do need to use Gibbs and Raymond to stretch the field. Otherwise defames can really pack the middle of the field. Hopefully LaPorta can make a play in the deep seam early to get some respect.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I don't have the information handy but has anyone looked at what 1st Rd Running Backs do in their 1st game in the NFL?
I have no idea, just curious and too lazy to look it all up
I have no idea, just curious and too lazy to look it all up
Biabreakable
Footballguy
No.
Im sure its a mixed bag. Some have started slow while others have had big games right away.
Chaka
Footballguy
All of them?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
While interesting it’s probably not predictive or helpful for saying anything about Gibbs vs KC
Well how about first round Detroit Lions Running Backs?
Mel Farr .... 26-95-0, 2-(-2)
Billy Sims....22-153-3, 2-64
Barry Sanders.....9-71-1
Jahvid Best.... 14-20-2, 5-16
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
So many posts in here…..tough to wade through them all…..what are people projecting for Gibbs for the full year?
The Lions had the most pathetic defense in the NFL history the first half of last season. Since then, they had Houston and Hutch develop into dominant pass rushers and their defense was average the last half of the season, much of the reason they went 8-2. They picked up three of the top DBs in free agencies in Moseley, Sutton, and Gardner-Johnson. They drafted two guys who will eaaily be top 5 for defensive rookie of the year in LB Jack Campbell and DB Brian Banks. They have 3rd year DT Alim McNeil who has bulked up with muscle and has been balling out in camp. They have second round pick DT Levi Onwuzurike who is healthy after fighting back pain for two years. They have both Okwara's back from injury. They have third-year LB Barnes finally blossoming. This unit underwent vast improvements at every position. Little discussed tidbit, but the Lions defense is potentially one of the best in the NFL this season. Go ahead and laugh away now, but watch as the season progresses. This is the most improved defensive unit in the NFL.
Why?
Only one I even remember was CEH's, which was also on a Thursday night and was one of best games of his career.
You asked for first rounders and first game but some others I recall off top of my head:
Distinctly recall McFaddens second game, which I think was also the best game of his career, but that his second game. He was platooning with Justin Fargas and Fargas went down early in that game. DMC broke off 6 runs of 20+ yards in that game and then suffered a turf toe late in the game. Was never the same all year. Frankly never looked that good to me ever again as he did that second game of his career.
Javhid Best, getting closer to the Lions, threw down a 50 point fantasy monster game in his second game. But he was a second round pick in game two, not quite what you asked but a very similar player to Gibbs.
None of those ended up being worth much in terms of a measure or how the players would go on to perform for various reasons.
Chaka
Footballguy
dnurk
Footballguy
Mostly based on usage. Will coaches give him a full workload or will they want to ease him into It? Mostly a gut call and I would be happy to be wrong.
Ok, thanks.
I play in some leagues that draft after the opener and the stats are retroactive.
Over the years I've seen two rookie RB's, both Chiefs, vault significantly up draft boards based on how they performed in the Thursday night opening game. Hunt was someone we drafted at the 2/3 turn in a leageue the night before the opener(can't recall if was 24 or 25) and after that game he was going top 3 in most leagues. CEH rose up considerably as well, into the top 5. Was fools gold but that's another story.
I actually don't think you could come up with a better matchup and situation. Jameson out, Chiefs likely scoring points, no Chris Jones. I don't think they can afford the luxury of easing him into it and it might be an extremely ideal matchup and game script.
I'd expect him to be fully involved. It's not like montgomery has been in the system for 3 years and knows the offense so much better.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure but Monty has a lot more experience in pro systems and of course playing in actual NFL games.
