Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Was just going to add one more thing, sorry if it was mentioned previously and some of you might have already heard it.
Was watching a Path to the Draft episode post-draft and Daniel Jeremiah mentioned he talked to a team that went into the draft thinking they might draft Swift in later round one and they intended to basically make him primarily a slot WR and sprinkle in RB usage.
People can interpret that as a knock on his running or a sign of how good a receiver is, I'm just passing it along.
But fantasy aside it got me thinking that if I was Gibbs I'd have really liked that switch. Top slot Wr's usually get paid more then elite RB's.
Was watching a Path to the Draft episode post-draft and Daniel Jeremiah mentioned he talked to a team that went into the draft thinking they might draft Swift in later round one and they intended to basically make him primarily a slot WR and sprinkle in RB usage.
People can interpret that as a knock on his running or a sign of how good a receiver is, I'm just passing it along.
But fantasy aside it got me thinking that if I was Gibbs I'd have really liked that switch. Top slot Wr's usually get paid more then elite RB's.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Yeah, you're right. It was good to hear for Swift, and it's likewise good to hear for Gibbs. Swift's injuries changed everything.
Sincerely,
Bitter Swift Clinger
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think it all depends on how many touches it takes to get that production. It’s all relative to efficiency. If a player could do that on 75 touches, they are basically the best playmaker in the NFL. If it takes them 300 touches then they are dragging the offense down.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
I actually don't think they are very similar.
To each their own but I put more stock in film examples of blocking then assuming the grading system from PFF or whoever is accurate.
Gibbs is going to be utilized far more as a wideout than any of those. I would envision about 650 snaps with over 250 as a reciever. I can see about 70 receptions total with about 900 yards. Top that with about 600 yards rushing. If the experts want to put the over/under at 1000 total yards for Gibbs, sign me up for the over.
Yeah, no one is saying that. 1500 plus total yards is not out of the question though. He recieving skillset is elite though and the Lions have made it clear that will be the focal point of his usage, which is far different than what you anticipate. If you want to think he is just the equivalent of Swift, whatever. Swift was a very weak reciever, which is one of the many reasons the Lions had no issues with moving on from him.
That's wildly optimistic in the receiving. Almost 13 YPR would make him the best receiver at RB, maybe ever. I think something like 400 yards on 50 catches is more realistic.
I kinda go the other way with Gibbs, that I think his rushing productivity is being understated. I think he'll top 600 rushing pretty easily. I fully agree that if the over/under is 1,000 total yards, slam the over.
I think people are being too comfortable just slotting in the Swift/Jammal roles to Gibbs/Montgomery. Gibbs is better than Swift, and Montgomery may not be any better than Jamaal. I also think there is a realistic chance Gibbs just runs away with the job. I'd be shocked if Montgomery saw more touches. I think Gibbs is a low-end RB1 this season, while Montgomery is probably an RB3.
Gibbs will not be catching mostly dump off passes out of the backfield. He will truly be a hybrid player lining up as a true WR. That is why the significant boost in yards per catch.
I'm almost in lock step agreement with you except the YRP is a little high, but if we are talking a full season I do think he has a shot to hit near that yardage total in receiving, because I'm expecting a little north of 4.1 receptions a game.
There have been 10 times in modern NFL history where a RB has hit 900 receiving yards.
Lenny Moore
Marshall Faulk (twice)
Roger Craig
Lionel James
Austin Ekeler
Charlie Garner
Christian McCaffrey
Larry Centers
Ronnie Harmon
Moore is the only one of those players went over 12 YPR (in 1958) and most of them had HOF level QBs throwing to them. The other ones didn't have target hog WRs like Amon-Ra St. Brown.
I'm a huge Gibbs fan. Bijan rightfully gets all the hype as the best RB prospect of arguably the last 7-8 years, but Gibbs would have been the #1 RB in most classes. I think he's a better prospect than any of the 2019-2022 RBs. That said, I think you are taking Campbell at his word too much. 900 yards with 13 YPR would be a historic season.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
If Gibbs has 900 yards on 13 ypr this year, I think every critic of the Lions draft would have to issue an apology. It only took him being a once in a century player.
Only because you are sticking a RB label on him. He will be as much of a wide reciever as a RB.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Please pump the brakes. He isn't some miracle RB/WR dynamo never seen before.
jtd13
Footballguy
If the lions wanted a WR, a WR probably would have been a better NFL pick. Heck, you had a Deebo-like WR prospect right there, complete with elite YAC and questions about route running (although I would have preferred they take JSN if they were going that route).
Keep preaching.
JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
And Kirby had Dan Marino throwing him the ball.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Swift as a floor is nuts. Lots of rookies are total busts. His floor is 0. Swift is at least a solid pro. His production as a projection for Gibbs is probably realistic, but certainly not floor.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
you draft players that can change a game.
laughing that so many ppl poopoo on a rb pick, when RBs are able to change a game nearly as much as ANY position on the field.
if he ends up a stud, it's a great pick, whether at 2 or 32.
2023, when a guy who might touch the ball 20-30x a game isn't "that important anymore"
laughing that so many ppl poopoo on a rb pick, when RBs are able to change a game nearly as much as ANY position on the field.
if he ends up a stud, it's a great pick, whether at 2 or 32.
2023, when a guy who might touch the ball 20-30x a game isn't "that important anymore"
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yes, they said the same thing about Swift coming out of college.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
no, I get it. I mean, most first round picks get hyped up pretty good outta college. some hit, some don't. but that's every position. all of em.
and I mean, not that I remember what the chatter w swift was, but he was not Gibbs for me. Not at all the same level.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
People were over the freaking over the moon on Swift predraft even. Then he went before JT. The hype was real.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
RBs do not change the game nearly as much as any position. I think it's been proven to be the opposite. RBs are mostly a product of the QB, blocking and scheme.
massraider
Footballguy
Neither do cornerbacks, but everyone keeps drafting them top 10.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
There actually is some research that indicates corners are more impactful than edge rushers so I am not sure I agree with you there.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
that's because there's very few studs. the studs that exist absolutely change the game. gibbs has that potential
If we are talking just pure running I would agree, but that's not really looking at the entire picture, especially with a RB like Gibbs.
Honest question. Who do you think is more impactul to the Chargers offense. Ekeler, Mike Williams or Allen? I think it's Ekeler myself. Maybe you would disagree and that's cool but its how I see it. Would say same thing regarding CMC and Kamara,when they've been at their best I think their impact on the offense has only been rivaled by the QB. CMC's impact on SF last year is really hard to undersell IMO.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The counter argument is while Ekeler is the leading receiver for the Chargers, he also had one of the lowest yards per catch on the team last year. He is very reliable and the offense is built around him but I do have to wonder if the team would be better off throwing down field more considering they have one of the best young big arm QBs.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
YPA > YPC.
I really think the analytics are off. It is a much more complex question than how the analytics are looking at it. Are most of those catches a designed screen or is it a dump off when none of the WR got open? If the analytics are just looking at plays thrown to WR vs. dump offs to RB, it is not really fair since the dump off is covering for the failure of the passing route. IMHO, the analytics against the value of running backs are pretty flawed. Certainly a passing first offense has proven to be more efficient and teams that try to establish the run are wasting valuable series, but an explosive running back who can break long runs and is effective catching out of the backfield as well as lining up wide adds a lot of value. The analytics against RB just don't pass the smell test and need to be re-evaluated.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I suppose that is not as bad as kissing every cow’s butt in Minnesota after being wrong about the Colts drafting Richardson. It took a week for my lips to heal.
I'd probably argue Keenan Allen is/was the most important Charger skill player. Both Herbert and Rivers have some very noticeable splits when he's been out over the years.
Would certainly agree about CMC with Carolina, not sure as much in SF. I'd probably argue Kittle is their most impactful skill guy, but let's see CMC with a full offseason, he certainly may be their top guy.
I think Michael Thomas was significantly more impactful than Kamara in NO. I sorta think these last couple years have made people forget how amazing Thomas before injuries. I'd argue he's the best route running WR of the last 20 years. Real shame he couldn't get healthy, he was pretty much right where Justin Jefferson is today 3 years ago.
I'd be very shocked if Gibbs was a CMC level weapon. That's just rarified air. Kamara/Ekeler is probably the high end, and even that is optimistic, and I say that as someone who likes Gibbs.
It probably would be better to go downfield more, but that was I think less by design and more by health, at least to the extent it was. Hard to stretch the field when your WRs are Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter. Be really interested to see how Quentin Johnston is used there.
Sure it's arguable that Allen is more important, I just don't think so. Ekeler has to big an impact on both running and receiving.
Kittle's importance is huge but the team looked night and day different when they got CMC.
I have not forgot Michael Thomas as I've been huge on him. Very similar to Allen vs Ekeler. I think a player who impacts both the running and passing game is a decent amount more impactful these two WR's , especially considering they are possession WR's and don't really open up the defense.
I think Kamara has been every bit as good and versatile in his career as CMC so I can't agree with this at all.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah but that's their own fault.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I feel I’m on an island with you on fading Gibbs. I was intrigued by Cook last year. Spent a ton of time thinking about pass catching weight outliers at RB and ultimately became convinced that he’s going to be a risky or frustrating player to roster in dynasty. I flipped 1.02 for Andrews in one league and 1.02 for 1.03 plus in another one. Second instance was league specific circumstance in terms of dynasty window timeline . First league was more about roster construction. At this point I’ll try to get some exposure in redraft because I like the talent but it does feel he’s a risky bet.
