RB Derrick Henry, BAL (2 Viewers)

[Tau837]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[kface]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

 

[kutta]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

We are talking about the last couple years there. And yes, it was. Last year the Titans ranked 27th in points per game and 28th in yards per game. The Ravens were 4th in points per game and 5th in yards per game. Big difference.

 

[kface]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

We are talking about the last couple years there. And yes, it was. Last year the Titans ranked 27th in points per game and 28th in yards per game. The Ravens were 4th in points per game and 5th in yards per game. Big difference.

And that's one year and Henry is 1 year older with a lot more tread on the tires

 

[kutta]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

Well, it's not every day we have an older, great player who had a couple down years go from a struggling team to a great team.

My overall point is just that Henry's situation is changing dramatically. And the Ravens haven't had a star RB in quite a while, so they are also likely to change how they do things on offense.

Good luck this year - hopefully you're pleasantly surprise

 

[kutta]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

We are talking about the last couple years there. And yes, it was. Last year the Titans ranked 27th in points per game and 28th in yards per game. The Ravens were 4th in points per game and 5th in yards per game. Big difference.

And that's one year and Henry is 1 year older with a lot more tread on the tires

OK. 2 years ago the Titans were 30th in yards per game and 28th in points per game....

 

[kface]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

We are talking about the last couple years there. And yes, it was. Last year the Titans ranked 27th in points per game and 28th in yards per game. The Ravens were 4th in points per game and 5th in yards per game. Big difference.

And that's one year and Henry is 1 year older with a lot more tread on the tires

OK. 2 years ago the Titans were 30th in yards per game and 28th in points per game....

I see both arguments for sure

I lean he is a big rb with a ton of tread on his tires and this is the year he breaks down. He also doesn't catch passes and is in an offense where there are a lot of other mouths to feed

I think Mitchell is going to get a ton of play this year

 

[Gally]

I feel like I'm gonna be on a pretty big island with Henry here, but I'm not getting these low YPC totals at all. I'd be SHOCKED if he was under 5.0 YPC. I think there is some greatly underappreciating how much playing with Lamar Jackson adds.

I am on that island with you. I would be shocked if Henry is below 5 ypc. His problem the last couple years was the bad o-line allowing penetration so he was being hit behind the LOS before he got going. I don't see that happening when the defense has to account for Lamar so they will be less up field quickly accounting for the mis-direction. It's a perfect fit to me.

 

[Tau837]

I feel like I'm gonna be on a pretty big island with Henry here, but I'm not getting these low YPC totals at all. I'd be SHOCKED if he was under 5.0 YPC. I think there is some greatly underappreciating how much playing with Lamar Jackson adds.

I am on that island with you. I would be shocked if Henry is below 5 ypc. His problem the last couple years was the bad o-line allowing penetration so he was being hit behind the LOS before he got going. I don't see that happening when the defense has to account for Lamar so they will be less up field quickly accounting for the mis-direction. It's a perfect fit to me.

TEN 2023:

• Henry 4.2 ypc, 3.32 YAC/A = 0.88 yards before contact/attempt
• Spears 4.5 ypc, 3.15 YAC/A = 1.35 YBC/A

BAL 2023:

• Edwards 4.1 YPC, 2.76 YAC/A = 1.34 YBC/A
• Hill 4.6 YPC, 2.55 YAC/A = 2.05 YBC/A
• Mitchell 8.4 YPC, 5.68 YAC/A = 2.72 YBC/A

This data probably represents the Lamar factor that @travdogg mentions here. Two possible issues here:

• The Ravens lost 3 starting OL from last season, including their best run blocker, Morgan Moses... to the extent that the OL run blocking helped with the impressive YBC/A data above, that advantage may be diminished going forward
• Hard to explain why the gap between Henry and Spears in YBC/A was as big as it was... due to the defense keying on Henry more than Spears when he was in the backfield? Opposing defenses will probably key on Henry more than they keyed on Edwards, too, though I realize this should be mitigated somewhat by Jackson

 

[TripItUp]

Biggest concern for Henry is the Ravens limiting his usage, particularly in December during fantasy playoffs as the Ravens prepare for the postseason.

I'm pretty sure the Ravens aren't planning for 400 Henry carries.(including playoffs)

 

[travdogg]

I feel like I'm gonna be on a pretty big island with Henry here, but I'm not getting these low YPC totals at all. I'd be SHOCKED if he was under 5.0 YPC. I think there is some greatly underappreciating how much playing with Lamar Jackson adds.

I am on that island with you. I would be shocked if Henry is below 5 ypc. His problem the last couple years was the bad o-line allowing penetration so he was being hit behind the LOS before he got going. I don't see that happening when the defense has to account for Lamar so they will be less up field quickly accounting for the mis-direction. It's a perfect fit to me.

TEN 2023:

• Henry 4.2 ypc, 3.32 YAC/A = 0.88 yards before contact/attempt
• Spears 4.5 ypc, 3.15 YAC/A = 1.35 YBC/A

BAL 2023:

• Edwards 4.1 YPC, 2.76 YAC/A = 1.34 YBC/A
• Hill 4.6 YPC, 2.55 YAC/A = 2.05 YBC/A
• Mitchell 8.4 YPC, 5.68 YAC/A = 2.72 YBC/A

This data probably represents the Lamar factor that @travdogg mentions here. Two possible issues here:

• The Ravens lost 3 starting OL from last season, including their best run blocker, Morgan Moses... to the extent that the OL run blocking helped with the impressive YBC/A data above, that advantage may be diminished going forward
• Hard to explain why the gap between Henry and Spears in YBC/A was as big as it was... due to the defense keying on Henry more than Spears when he was in the backfield? Opposing defenses will probably key on Henry more than they keyed on Edwards, too, though I realize this should be mitigated somewhat by Jackson

I think a fair amount (not all, but enough to make a difference) of the difference in YBC between Henry and Spears was Spears getting runs on 3rd and long.

Even having lost Moses and Zeitler (I'd argue Simpson is addition by subtraction) I think the 2024 Ravens OL is A LOT better than the 2023 Titans.

 

[Tau837]

I think a fair amount (not all, but enough to make a difference) of the difference in YBC between Henry and Spears was Spears getting runs on 3rd and long.

Per PFR splits, Spears had 11/51/0 rushing (4.6 ypc) on 3rd and 4+ yards to go last season. That means his other carries were 89/402/2 (4.5 ypc), almost the same. I don't know of a way to break down the YBC vs. YAC on those plays.

So... maybe so.

By comparison, Henry had 1/16/0 in 3rd and 4+ yards to go situations last season.

 

[Tau837]

Even having lost Moses and Zeitler (I'd argue Simpson is addition by subtraction) I think the 2024 Ravens OL is A LOT better than the 2023 Titans.

Forgot this part. PFF graded the respective run blocking of BAL and TEN as #6 (69.0) and #18 (60.2) last season. IMO the 2024 Ravens OL will likely still be better than the 2023 Titans OL, but the margin will likely be closer, reducing the advantage.

 

[Gally]

I think a fair amount (not all, but enough to make a difference) of the difference in YBC between Henry and Spears was Spears getting runs on 3rd and long.

Per PFR splits, Spears had 11/51/0 rushing (4.6 ypc) on 3rd and 4+ yards to go last season. That means his other carries were 89/402/2 (4.5 ypc), almost the same. I don't know of a way to break down the YBC vs. YAC on those plays.

So... maybe so.

By comparison, Henry had 1/16/0 in 3rd and 4+ yards to go situations last season.

I think the difference had more to do with running styles. For how good Henry is, he doesn't do great when forced to go east-west early or getting hit before he gets started. That happened a lot last year.

I think Spears is better laterally and with a bit of burst to get to the corner so I think he was a bit better in what the Titans line gave him