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RB Derrick Henry, BAL (1 Viewer)

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Derrick Henry is dealing with a strained calf.

According to Schefter, the injury could sideline him for a couple of weeks, but it is not considered serious. This is ultimately good news after Henry was spotted in a walking boot over the weekend. Barring a setback, Henry should be 100 percent well before Week 1.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Jul 30, 2019, 12:02 PM ET
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Derrick Henry (calf) resumed practicing on Monday.

Henry had been sidelined since the first day of camp. It's hardly ideal, but a calf won't be as much of a setback threat as an ankle issue would have been for the 6-foot-3, 247-pound running back. The Titans want to build their offense around Henry. Currently being drafted as a low-end RB2, Henry is a strong candidate to outperform his ADP.

SOURCE: Jim Wyatt on Twitter

Aug 19, 2019, 3:19 PM ET
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This season we finally find out what he can do when a team leans on him. Personally, I am very excited and optimistic.  He is the type of runner who needs to be fed the ball.

 
az_prof said:
This season we finally find out what he can do when a team leans on him. Personally, I am very excited and optimistic.  He is the type of runner who needs to be fed the ball.
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It's a decidedly unpopular opinion, but one I happen to share. You are right that he tends to get better with more volume, definitely has the talent to be a workhorse, and actually looked really good during the last half of the season (and had a monstrous last 3-4 games).

Some things in his favor:

  • Upgraded line: Lewan (when back from suspension) and Saffold (who was a big reason why Gurley had room to run in LA) make up the best left side in the NFL. Conklin (when healthy) is also a force in the middle. If these pieces come together, Henry will have a huge advantage over opposing run Ds
  • Upgraded offense: Delanie Walker is a steady contributor, and Humphries should be a boost in the slot, with Corey Davis and AJ Brown (along with Tajae Sharpe) being very credible receiving threats. This will help keep Ds honest and not simply stacking the box to get after Mariota
Henry's lack of participation/skill in the passing game keeps him from being an every down back, Mariota is still Mariota, and the Titans always seem to be on the verge of breaking out but ultimately collapse. And Henry has disappointed more than he's thrilled fantasy owners in the past.

But I think he is way below the radar and most avoid him because of he has traditionally been a disappointing RB1. But past performances are just that -- in the past -- and I think Henry will have a year to prove doubters wrong and have every shot to crack Top 10 RB.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
It's a decidedly unpopular opinion, but one I happen to share. You are right that he tends to get better with more volume, definitely has the talent to be a workhorse, and actually looked really good during the last half of the season (and had a monstrous last 3-4 games).

Some things in his favor:

  • Upgraded line: Lewan (when back from suspension) and Saffold (who was a big reason why Gurley had room to run in LA) make up the best left side in the NFL. Conklin (when healthy) is also a force in the middle. If these pieces come together, Henry will have a huge advantage over opposing run Ds
  • Upgraded offense: Delanie Walker is a steady contributor, and Humphries should be a boost in the slot, with Corey Davis and AJ Brown (along with Tajae Sharpe) being very credible receiving threats. This will help keep Ds honest and not simply stacking the box to get after Mariota
Henry's lack of participation/skill in the passing game keeps him from being an every down back, Mariota is still Mariota, and the Titans always seem to be on the verge of breaking out but ultimately collapse. And Henry has disappointed more than he's thrilled fantasy owners in the past.

But I think he is way below the radar and most avoid him because of he has traditionally been a disappointing RB1. But past performances are just that -- in the past -- and I think Henry will have a year to prove doubters wrong and have every shot to crack Top 10 RB.
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Dammit STC.  I have a draft tonight and wish I hadn't read this.  JUST WHEN I THINK I'VE ESCAPED!

 
tommyGunZ said:
Dammit STC.  I have a draft tonight and wish I hadn't read this.  JUST WHEN I THINK I'VE ESCAPED!
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Honestly, my take is against the grain of consensus, even logic to many, and if you are PPR, can totally see why Jones, Freeman, or even a guy like Jacobs -- who we really have yet to see in terms of performance and usage -- would be more appealing in terms of "safer" picks.

For me, in a league that went RB really heavy in the first two rounds and with me going WR in RD1, I was hoping for a guy like Mixon, Cook, or Fournette to drop to me in the second. They didn't. I don't fully trust Freeman's ability to stay healthy, don't fully trust Aaron Jones to keep the full workload or command the volume like Henry, and between Henry and Mack (who also isn't utilized that much in the pass game, or at least as much as Henry is), I think Henry has the higher ceiling if all things click seeing the last half of his season last year.

It was a risk for sure, but one that I can see paying off. I was able to mitigate the risk by getting a guy like Carson as my RB2, and snagging Dion Lewis for insurance late in the draft. A similar approach of mitigating Henry's risk by drafting a super-solid floor RB would be wise.

Choo choo.

 
Henry has not been used a lot in the passing game but I wonder if that might not change somewhat.  We all know that Dion Lewis is a good receiving back but I was surprised when I looked at last year's stats that his catching % and ypc were only slightly better than Henry's.  

Henry: 83.3% catch % and 6.6 ypc

Lewis: 88.1% catch % and 6.8 ypc

This doesn't mean the usage in the passing game will change at all, but it could. I don't think it is a fact that Henry is a bad receiver; he just hasn't been given much opportunity.

 
az_prof said:
Henry has not been used a lot in the passing game but I wonder if that might not change somewhat.  We all know that Dion Lewis is a good receiving back but I was surprised when I looked at last year's stats that his catching % and ypc were only slightly better than Henry's.  

Henry: 83.3% catch % and 6.6 ypc

Lewis: 88.1% catch % and 6.8 ypc

This doesn't mean the usage in the passing game will change at all, but it could. I don't think it is a fact that Henry is a bad receiver; he just hasn't been given much opportunity.
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I think you are holding out too much hope. For one, Walker is healthy and with Humphries on the team and promising rookie in AJ, as well as talent with Corey Davis, Mariota doesn't need Henry -- especially with a guy like Dion Lewis who is a fantastic pass catcher.

Henry has always had knocks on his receiving skills, even out of college where the big knock against him was well below average. That won't change, nor will the fact that Henry really is a solid 2-down back but is still likely to get taken out on passing downs.

What doesn't change is his unique size/power and explosiveness, and his ability to wear Ds down and get better as the game goes on. Staying in games this year will keep the run/pass ratio and gamescript highly in Henry's favor, which will lead to success. If the Titans can't do it, then Henry will likely have yet another disappointing year. 

 
Here are my projections for Henry.  Last year he had 215 carries and Lewis had 155. I think it is fair to assume that Henry's carries go up and Lewis' down, so 265 carries seems reasonable. Last year Henry had a ypc of 4.9 but let's assume a regression to 4.5 ypc.  Henry had 12 rushing TDs, but let's assume 10.

I think the argument above is valid about receiving, but still, if Henry is on the field more, which I think is likely, I think 30 receptions is doable.  Lewis had 59 receptions and I can see him giving up 15 to Henry.

265 carries at 4.5 ypc=1,192 yards, 10 TDs

30 receptions at 7.5 ypc = 225 yards

Total ppr points: 231 points.  That would put him at RB 12 last year.

He might not have 30 passes, but he might have more rushing attempts or TDs.

 
PPR: He was #1 on my DO NOT DRAFT list but he's fighting for a new contract this year so there's that.

Don't want to rehash what's already been written prior about Henry's 2018. When I see Derrick Henry in the draft room I think "Pass. I can get Latavius Murray, who IMO has a higher WEEKLY floor, in a much better offense, with at least as high overall ceiling IMO if Kamara goes down"

Maybe TN will surprise and be a much better offense and maybe leave Henry in pass/comeback situations more. Too many Maybe's (for me) at that price 

 
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az_prof said:
Here are my projections for Henry.  Last year he had 215 carries and Lewis had 155. I think it is fair to assume that Henry's carries go up and Lewis' down, so 265 carries seems reasonable. Last year Henry had a ypc of 4.9 but let's assume a regression to 4.5 ypc.  Henry had 12 rushing TDs, but let's assume 10.

I think the argument above is valid about receiving, but still, if Henry is on the field more, which I think is likely, I think 30 receptions is doable.  Lewis had 59 receptions and I can see him giving up 15 to Henry.

265 carries at 4.5 ypc=1,192 yards, 10 TDs

30 receptions at 7.5 ypc = 225 yards

Total ppr points: 231 points.  That would put him at RB 12 last year.

He might not have 30 passes, but he might have more rushing attempts or TDs.
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Whether you are right or wrong. This is a great way of evaluating it. Thanks for sharing.

I hope you are wrong and his numbers are even better than that. But I will take those numbers.

What we need as owners is more consistency. Last year the fella was hard to start. Many of us sat him in his first blowup game week 14 leaving those points on the bench. Then maybe even hesitated the next week wondering if it was an anomaly.

He didn’t have more than 60 yards rushing until week 14 when he had 238!!! He rushed for 1,056 yards last year and that one week was nearly 1/4 of that production. And rushed for 12 tds with 4 in that week. Again 1/4 of the production.

Lets just all hope is owners aren’t floating on that one week high all year waiting for it, when someone better is sitting on the bench. That’s my biggest fear. Knowing he can do that and sitting consistency because of it.

 
VikingFrog said:
Whether you are right or wrong. This is a great way of evaluating it. Thanks for sharing.

I hope you are wrong and his numbers are even better than that. But I will take those numbers.

What we need as owners is more consistency. Last year the fella was hard to start. Many of us sat him in his first blowup game week 14 leaving those points on the bench. Then maybe even hesitated the next week wondering if it was an anomaly.

He didn’t have more than 60 yards rushing until week 14 when he had 238!!! He rushed for 1,056 yards last year and that one week was nearly 1/4 of that production. And rushed for 12 tds with 4 in that week. Again 1/4 of the production.

Lets just all hope is owners aren’t floating on that one week high all year waiting for it, when someone better is sitting on the bench. That’s my biggest fear. Knowing he can do that and sitting consistency because of it.
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Thanks. I try to make reasonable assumptions and then tamp them down a bit to be more conservative.  This is really what I see as Henry's floor, assuming he is healthy all season.

Totally agree about the consistency.  Being TD dependent and not catching a lot of passes I think makes him more variable than some RBs.  But hopefully there will be more consistency this year.

 
grateful zed said:
that's not what i was lead to believe.
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I've seen many seasons when Cleveland was touted as "finally having turned the corner" or "ready to contend in the AFC North."  None of the previous ones have come to pass.  Why would this year be any different?

 
Verdict based on this game is that as long as Mariota can keep them in games, Henry will be utilized.

He is not going to be challenged for run touches, so the 15-20 touches a game seems solid.

Line looked good, especially Conklin who looked back to his old healthy self -- will get even better when Lewan gets back.

75 of the yards and one TD shouldn't be expected, that came off of one catch and run -- I don't expect Henry to suddenly be used more in the pass game, and while this came down to the perfect playcall and some solid blocks, I will say Henry turned on the jets to outrun pursuit on that play. Sometimes Henry looks plodding but based on that play, seeing him clearly stay out in front, makes me think that the "plodding" knock on him may simply be that he is much speedier than he looks.

If this holds up he'll be solid and reward owners for believing in him when everyone else thought he was a solid avoid/bust.

 
Faust said:
Titans' Derrick Henry hits 20.93 mph on 75-yard TD reception
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Wow. Remember when people were talking up how fast Tyreek hill was on that 58 yard reception last year? He was only 1 mph faster.

I said this elsewhere -- I've always thought Henry could look plodding sometimes, and knocks I saw against him were that he looks slow.

When I was watching that on multiple replays, it was surprising that it didn't seem his legs were really churning fast, but he was still pulling away from defenders and no one could catch him. Thought it was because it was the perfect play with great blocking and any defender with a chance was coming from the other side of the field. That Walder tweet in Davenport's article @Faust posted showed that that was indeed a factor.

But the speed factor here points to the fact that Henry has way more speed than I give him credit for, and his running style is deceptive in that while (to me, anyway) it can look more plodding, he must be really efficient. He certainly and objectively has jets regardless of how it may look to me.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Wow. Remember when people were talking up how fast Tyreek hill was on that 58 yard reception last year? He was only 1 mph faster.

I said this elsewhere -- I've always thought Henry could look plodding sometimes, and knocks I saw against him were that he looks slow.

When I was watching that on multiple replays, it was surprising that it didn't seem his legs were really churning fast, but he was still pulling away from defenders and no one could catch him. Thought it was because it was the perfect play with great blocking and any defender with a chance was coming from the other side of the field. That Walder tweet in Davenport's article @Faust posted showed that that was indeed a factor.

But the speed factor here points to the fact that Henry has way more speed than I give him credit for, and his running style is deceptive in that while (to me, anyway) it can look more plodding, he must be really efficient. He certainly and objectively has jets regardless of how it may look to me.
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I think it takes him ten or twenty yards to get up to speed but once he does he is as fast as anyone in the league.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Wow. Remember when people were talking up how fast Tyreek hill was on that 58 yard reception last year? He was only 1 mph faster.

I said this elsewhere -- I've always thought Henry could look plodding sometimes, and knocks I saw against him were that he looks slow.

When I was watching that on multiple replays, it was surprising that it didn't seem his legs were really churning fast, but he was still pulling away from defenders and no one could catch him. Thought it was because it was the perfect play with great blocking and any defender with a chance was coming from the other side of the field. That Walder tweet in Davenport's article @Faust posted showed that that was indeed a factor.

But the speed factor here points to the fact that Henry has way more speed than I give him credit for, and his running style is deceptive in that while (to me, anyway) it can look more plodding, he must be really efficient. He certainly and objectively has jets regardless of how it may look to me.
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That perception might be due to him having very long legs and taking long strides...fewer strides per yard kinda thing. Looks slower but he's moving fast? Dunno.

FWIW, I don't think that was his top speed. As I watched that run it felt to me like he DIDN'T turn on the burners, like maybe he was being a little cautious coming off the injury or just being smart (don't wanna blow a hammy in week 1).

 
Derrick Henry rushed for 81 yards and one touchdown in the Titans' Week 2 loss to the Colts.

Henry should have had a second touchdown, but the Titans dialed up a play-action pass to their left tackle at the goal-line instead. That helped nobody. But even without it, Henry still returned RB2 value on another big workload, one that included two receptions on three targets as well. Henry's Week 3 matchup in Jacksonville is a tough one, but he has enough volume and touchdown equity to remain an RB2.

Sep 15, 2019, 4:17 PM ET
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myFBG has Henry as RB9 for ROS in my .5PPR league - does that seem kind of high?  He is behind only CMC, Zeke, Saquon, Cook, Kamara, Chubb, Bell, and DJ.

 
TheWinz said:
myFBG has Henry as RB9 for ROS in my .5PPR league - does that seem kind of high?  He is behind only CMC, Zeke, Saquon, Cook, Kamara, Chubb, Bell, and DJ.
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No it is not. I mean, anything can happen, and his value is higher in standard than PPR.

But if usage stays the same, and his line stays healthy, he can absolutely be a Top 10 RB this year.

 
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Derrick Henry rushed 17 times for 44 yards and a touchdown in the Titans' Week 3 loss to the Jaguars, adding a two-yard reception.

Running in soggy conditions, Henry came close to busting a few big runs, but he could never quite make it happen on a night where Marcus Mariota was giving the Titans' offense no chance to get into rhythm. Despite the disappointing yardage total, Henry cleared 15 carries with a touchdown for the third time in as many contests. He is living up to pre-season expectations of being the centerpiece of the Titans' offense. Henry will be an RB2 for the Titans' Week 4 trip to Atlanta, though game script could be a problem in that one.

Sep 19, 2019, 11:47 PM ET
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Derrick Henry rushed 17 times for 44 yards and a touchdown in the Titans' Week 3 loss to the Jaguars, adding a two-yard reception.

Running in soggy conditions, Henry came close to busting a few big runs, but he could never quite make it happen on a night where Marcus Mariota was giving the Titans' offense no chance to get into rhythm. Despite the disappointing yardage total, Henry cleared 15 carries with a touchdown for the third time in as many contests. He is living up to pre-season expectations of being the centerpiece of the Titans' offense. Henry will be an RB2 for the Titans' Week 4 trip to Atlanta, though game script could be a problem in that one.
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he had at least 25 yards called back for holding call in the 1st half, a couple of the calls were terrible.  That and a negative game script killed his night.   Titans need a new QB.

 
Henry has been a pleasant surprise thus far, logging 51 carries to Lewis's 9.  And he has more targets than Dion too!  Oh Henry!

 
What I don't get is I believe I heard he was the top FF RB since week 10 of last season (not counting this week). Don't quote me on that, but if Henry isn't #1, he's certainly way up there. Anyway, I'm not sure how you can look at how he's produced since becoming the starter & not rank him top-10. Henry was criminally undervalued coming into this season. It was puzzling.

Right now, Henry should be a consensus top-10 RB easy. And for those of us that play in non-PPR leagues, he's certainly got the potential to finish top-5. The crazy part is Henry has a LOT of headroom left, mostly from increased touches.

 
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Football Jones said:
What I don't get is I believe I heard he was the top FF RB since week 10 of last season (not counting this week). Don't quote me on that, but if Henry isn't #1, he's certainly way up there. Anyway, I'm not sure how you can look at how he's produced since becoming the starter & not rank him top-10. Henry was criminally undervalued coming into this season. It was puzzling.

Right now, Henry should be a consensus top-10 RB easy. And for those of us that play in non-PPR leagues, he's certainly got the potential to finish top-5. The crazy part is Henry has a LOT of headroom left, mostly from increased touches.
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Wait until they get Lluellen (sp?) back.

 
Henry is a strange tale in a way. How it took him this long to make an impact is beyond me. Earlier in his career, Henry produced virtually every time he was given a significant number of touches. He's been way undervalued since the beginning.

Also, unlike Kamara & some of the other top RBs, you can expect Henry's situation to get better. Anybody who acquired him for a 2019 2nd (which seemed to be the going rate mid-season last year), got a huge steal.

 
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Since joining the league in 2016, he has played in 50 games.  He didn't have 15+ carries in back-to-back games until his 33rd & 34th games.  As a matter of fact, in his first 43 games he topped 15 carries only 6 times.  Since then, he has topped 15 in each of the last 7 games, and is 138/794/10, and added a nice 75 yd receiving TD to boot.  He can certainly handle the workload, given his lack of usage in the passing game.

 
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