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QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
massraider
Footballguy
He was taken with the Jets pick. History says the most miserable outcome possible for Jets fans is a good bet, so a Hall of Fame career seems likely
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Busting Myths About J.J. McCarthy With Thor Nystrom
There are a lot of silly narratives floating around about J.J. McCarthy. I decided to talk to his biggest stan, draft writer Thor Nystrom, and see if we can'...
youtu.be
BigJim®
Footballguy
Busting Myths About J.J. McCarthy With Thor Nystrom
There are a lot of silly narratives floating around about J.J. McCarthy. I decided to talk to his biggest stan, draft writer Thor Nystrom, and see if we can'...
I’m glad to hear the 71% while scrambling stat… thought I’d heard it somewhere else but could not find. I don’t love the near-record ball speed as much as him. It’s good at times but watching vids I noticed some uncatchable low lasers (Kyler glitches this too). He can probably improve with less speed sometimes.
I found a comprehensive split of McCarthy 2023 stats here. Interesting:
* 75% completion in 1st quarter
* 50% lower statistics in 2nd half of games, obviously playing with leads (1,996/14 TDs on 217 attempts in 1st half, 995/7 on 116 attempts in 2nd half)
* Regardless of quarter/use his comp % is consistent in 2nd (70.6), 3rd (70.7) and 4th (70.6)
* Higher completion % when trailing (74.1%) or tied (77.3%)
If that's not IDP that's a huge steal in my opinion. I don't know why people think McCarthy is gonna sit on the bench at all. He's competition is Sam Darnold. There is a great chance McCarthy starts week 1, throwing to Jefferson, Addison and eventually Hockenson.
Grabbed him at 5.8 in my 1QB league where I have Allen already. Too good of a value to pass up there imo.
consider me an interested party
Kirk Cousins was QB7 when he went down last season. Before someone says, yeah, but its not realistic to think McCarthy will be as good as Cousins right away (or maybe ever) I'll add that Nick Mullens averaged 370-2 in his 3 starts last year. Regardless of McCarthy's relative inexperience, this is an offense that wants to pass 1st, and is built to do so.
Not saying McCarthy is gonna instantly come in and be a top-15 QB, but its also not off the table either. He's gonna be throwing a hell of a lot more than he did at Michigan.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
KOC has said they have a plan and there are some benchmarks McCarthy needs to pass in practice before they make him the starter.
The main criticism people have about McCarthy is the lack of passing attempts. Reps. He needs reps to put that concern to bed. Maybe he turns the ball over a lot while he learns what he can do at the NFL level and what he can't but when the main criticism is reps I don't see how the Vikings answer that question without letting him play.
The main criticism people have about McCarthy is the lack of passing attempts. Reps. He needs reps to put that concern to bed. Maybe he turns the ball over a lot while he learns what he can do at the NFL level and what he can't but when the main criticism is reps I don't see how the Vikings answer that question without letting him play.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
As painful as this is to say, the kid is a gamer. I have seen some up-and-down moments. He is in a sound system with a good staff he will be fine. It's where you want to try to select him that is the question.
markrc99
Footballguy
I referenced the same data earlier in the discussion, but from cfbstats.com. McCarthy's page is linked below. Interestingly, when comparing the two is that whether they were trailing by as many as 7 or 8 points, McCarthy's figures were the same. Confirming that he didn't throw a single pass with the team trailing by multiple scores. The zero experience when trailing by more than 8 points your source leaves out. Your source does cite the mere number of passes when trailing (27), but also left out the number of games in which that occurred. Which was only in five of the 15 gms he started.
I don't know about citing McCarthy's completion % when trailing and also emphasizing that he didn't have to do much in the 2nd half of games because they were so far up on the scoreboard. To me, it would seem reasonable to assume the two go together to at least some extent. If the times Michigan trailed by a TD was predominantly in the 1st half of just a handful of gms, that likely means the times they had to abandon balance was zero! https://cfbstats.com/2023/player/418/1122137/passing/situational.html
New to me, the video below is McCarthy's entire body of work from this past year. I like his accuracy, but he's often afforded a lot of time & space. Often to throw to open receivers. Performing within structure, a lot of drop, step & throw. A lot of early-in-the-down, on-schedule type production. Certainly his share of throw to a spot, Michigan's WRs often afforded clean releases. Maybe I missed it but not a lot of press, DBs up engaging in order to disrupt the timing or to reroute the WR. Very few pass receptions contested. All that's left is the tackle & I don't recall many of those timed up with the arrival of the ball. Back the other way with some of the concerns, the over-striding, not layering his placement when necessary & a high uncatchable rate throwing to the boundary, none of those problems seemed prevalent to the extent that it factored.
His arm talent I'm not really sold on, nor his elusiveness. He can run, he can roll out, he can hurt fronts that don't honor their gap responsibility. But a suddenness, trapped, yet an ability to make a defender whiff in tight quarters, I didn't see that. With respect to the times McCarthy was in unfavorable down & distance I was looking for adversity, he & them, really up against it. I came away wondering how many of their long yardage situations actually had nothing to do with the defense. But rather due to being Uber-conservative on early downs or a lack of execution, a mental lapse perhaps?
McCarthy's the product of a dominant offense where defenses often had to blitz to pressure him & commit numbers to defend against the run. Unless there's a philosophical shift in Kevin O'Connell, it would seem that it's all going to be foreign to McCarthy. The other thing is that coming out from under center proper technique was always about getting the ball up, high & tight. This kid, he's slinging it from the hip, which may have something to do with that windup. But like the other stuff, what did it matter?
Defenses suck at every level of play. Way, way more important is the supporting cast, but most of all, being in the right play! McCarthy's chances are as good or better than all of the other 1st round QBs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAD7Qv6LvJI
BigJim®
Footballguy
First off, thanks for your informative post. I hopped on this train late.
I didn’t consider the relation you mention for those statistics. Clearly they did not trail much, but the + pass comp % when tied/trailing tells me he doesn’t shrivel. He also tossed 0 INTs when tied/trailing. He also threw 0 INTs on 3rd/4th downs, which is maybe a larger volume metric of composure. It stands to reason he was not tied/trailing long.
As far as the 2nd half stats, I’ve had discussions with people who point to modest passing stats = unproven as a passer. With 2nd half comp % and ATT:TD stats a constant, I’m comfortable he’s capable of much more. I mean, what metric suggests he’d be a different QB with increased volume? He checks nearly every situational play box.
BigJim®
Footballguy
This is very aligned with what I'd mentioned noticing re: his arm strength not always being a plus, and some Kyler-esque low fastballs on what should be short touch-passes
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