Dan Hindery
Moderator
My quick take on things as I dive into some of my own drafts. (I'm going to write-up my top 13 now and then come back and writeup the 2nd and 3rd round guys when I get more time.)
1. Zeke Elliott- Obviously. Not much to say here.
2. Josh Doctson- I think 2 thru 4 are really close and it comes down to personal preference. I like that Doctson has a clear path to WR1 in Washington and that Gruden loves to throw the ball. Also like his athleticism and well-rounded game.
3. Corey Coleman- Initially had Coleman #2, but I've been burned by the Browns too many times in the past. Still, I believe in Hue Jackson and like the direction of the new regime so far. Coleman is not only a safe bet for WR1, but looks like he should easily be the best skill player on the team. So I like the chances he ends up with a lot of targets and Hue will find creative ways to get him the ball.
4. Laquon Treadwell- It's probably fair to assume the Vikings offense becomes a bit more pass-heavy at some point, but this is still a team that was dead last in the NFL in pass attempts in 2015. Zimmer has explicitly said over the past few days that he wants this to remain a run-first team and mentioned multiple times how impressed he was with Treadwell's blocking. Won't argue with anyone who likes him at 1.02, but the above is enough of a tie-breaker for me to push him down to 4th.
5. Derrick Henry- Went and looked at the details of Murray's contract. I look at it as $12M in 2016 with options years in 2017 and 2018 of just $3M each. Unless he falls off a cliff (definitely possible), good chance that DeMarco hangs around for a few years and makes this a RBBC for a while. If you're drafting Henry here, it's more of a long-term bet on his talent (or because you don't like any of the other options).
6. Sterling Shepard- When you look at talent, fit and opportunity, Shepard seems to be the best bet of the 2nd tier WRs. There are targets to be had in New York and while OBJ limits the upside, all of the other WRs in this tier are facing similar issues.
7. Will Fuller- I'll end up being higher on Fuller than most. One of my personal philosophies is that consistently betting you are a better judge of NFL talent that the NFL people making the picks (who spend way more time and have way more information) will cause you to go broke. It is fair to discount Fuller somewhat because his NFL value (as a deep threat) probably will exceed his fantasy value. But we're still talking about the #2 receiver off the board. Target-hog DeAndre Hopkins (192 targets!) limits Fuller's upside quite a bit. But it's worth noting that in 2015 Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts combined for a line of 89-1142-6. Fuller's probably never going to be an 89 catch guy, but even with Hopkins getting nearly 200 targets, there are still enough targets to go around in Houston for fantasy relevance if Fuller is as talented as the Houston front office and Bill O'Brien clearly think he is.
8. Michael Thomas- It's weird that I think I'm going to end up being lower on Thomas than the consensus after spending all of the pre-draft process standing up for him when the analytics types were way too down on him (I also grabbed him in most of my devy leagues last year). I still like Thomas quite a bit and think he landed in a solid spot. However, I also think the big passing stats put up in New Orleans obscure how hard it will be for Thomas to make a major fantasy impact and this isn't an ideal landing spot. Cooks is going to get plenty of targets again. The Saints throw it to their running backs more than any team in the league. Coby Fleener got more than $7M per year and the Saints have always targeted their tight ends heavily. Plus, Willie Snead and Brandon Coleman are solid players as well who are going to get their targets. Maybe Thomas ends up being such a big-time receiver that the Saints break tendencies and feed both him and Cooks at the expense of the tight ends, backs and other receivers, but I wouldn't bet on it.
9. Hunter Henry- I've been surprised that Henry is falling to the late-2nd in most dynasty drafts. I absolutely love him at that point and am willing to take him higher. Probably going to end up on most of my teams. We are talking about a guy who went at the very top of the 2nd-round to one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. A team that features the TE in the passing game very heavily. I watched McCoy and Telesco's press conference after this pick and they repeatedly mentioned that while he's a solid blocker, they drafted him for his receiving abilities and expect him to be a huge part of the pass offense going forward. He's a 4.66 40 guy, so he's not a slug. It might take a couple years (once Gates retires), but I love Henry's chances of developing into a fantasy TE1 and don't think the Jason Witten comparisons are too far off. Henry made a number of big plays as an 18-year old true freshman in the SEC and just turned 21 a few months ago. There's more upside here than most seem to think.
10. Tyler Boyd- In a normal year, Boyd would probably be a late-2nd rounder. I don't love him and the landing spot isn't great for him long-term. But he is a slot guy with great hands and you never know what the future holds situationally. If he ever gets heavy target-volume, he does have some real PPR upside and he could be a bye-week flex option right away as a rookie. Unless I really need a RB, I'm inclined to bet on the skill-set and 2nd-round draft status given how mediocre the rest of the options look.
11. C.J. Prosise- I've been too high on Thomas Rawls this spring and overrated him a bit, but I still think Rawls is the guy to own in Seattle. Prosise is worth a late-1st in this draft class though because if he does end up hitting, the upside is pretty immense. Seattle tends to lean pretty heavily on one running back most games and if Rawls gets hurt or Prosise simply beats him out (impressive physical package), he has legit fantasy RB1 upside which is more than you can say about most of the backs in this class.
12. Kenneth Dixon- It's hard to get too excited about a guy drafted 134th overall. Even if he does beat out Javorius Allen and Justin Forsett this year, does he just get replaced next year by one of the half-dozen highly talented 2017 backs? I do like Dixon's intangibles and if you have to bet on one of the Day 3 backs, Trestman's love of throwing to the running back gives Dixon some real upside.
13. DeAndre Washington- A personal favorite of mine amongst the guys going late (seems to be a 3rd rounder in the early drafts that have been posted). So obviously you don't need to take him at the top of round 2 to get him. Reggie McKenzie was pretty glowing in his praise of Washington and he has very little competition to win the #2 job in Oakland right away. I wasn't real impressed with Latavius Murray last year and it wouldn't take much (an injury, some fumbles) for the door to open wide for Washington to take on an even bigger role. Plus, the Oakland OL looks pretty loaded and that is clearly an ascending offense so if things do unexpectedly fall into place for Washington, the fantasy upside for PPR leagues is immense.
14. Devontae Booker
15. Kenyan Drake
16. Carson Wentz
17. Tyler Higbee
18. Jared Goff
19. Leonte Carroo
20. Austin Hooper
21. Wendell Smallwood
22. Paul Perkins
23. Jordan Howard
24. Malcolm Mitchell
25. Tyler Ervin
26. Pharoh Cooper
27. Braxton Miller
28. Jordan Payton
29. Seth DeValve
30. Demarcus Robinson
1. Zeke Elliott- Obviously. Not much to say here.
2. Josh Doctson- I think 2 thru 4 are really close and it comes down to personal preference. I like that Doctson has a clear path to WR1 in Washington and that Gruden loves to throw the ball. Also like his athleticism and well-rounded game.
3. Corey Coleman- Initially had Coleman #2, but I've been burned by the Browns too many times in the past. Still, I believe in Hue Jackson and like the direction of the new regime so far. Coleman is not only a safe bet for WR1, but looks like he should easily be the best skill player on the team. So I like the chances he ends up with a lot of targets and Hue will find creative ways to get him the ball.
4. Laquon Treadwell- It's probably fair to assume the Vikings offense becomes a bit more pass-heavy at some point, but this is still a team that was dead last in the NFL in pass attempts in 2015. Zimmer has explicitly said over the past few days that he wants this to remain a run-first team and mentioned multiple times how impressed he was with Treadwell's blocking. Won't argue with anyone who likes him at 1.02, but the above is enough of a tie-breaker for me to push him down to 4th.
5. Derrick Henry- Went and looked at the details of Murray's contract. I look at it as $12M in 2016 with options years in 2017 and 2018 of just $3M each. Unless he falls off a cliff (definitely possible), good chance that DeMarco hangs around for a few years and makes this a RBBC for a while. If you're drafting Henry here, it's more of a long-term bet on his talent (or because you don't like any of the other options).
6. Sterling Shepard- When you look at talent, fit and opportunity, Shepard seems to be the best bet of the 2nd tier WRs. There are targets to be had in New York and while OBJ limits the upside, all of the other WRs in this tier are facing similar issues.
7. Will Fuller- I'll end up being higher on Fuller than most. One of my personal philosophies is that consistently betting you are a better judge of NFL talent that the NFL people making the picks (who spend way more time and have way more information) will cause you to go broke. It is fair to discount Fuller somewhat because his NFL value (as a deep threat) probably will exceed his fantasy value. But we're still talking about the #2 receiver off the board. Target-hog DeAndre Hopkins (192 targets!) limits Fuller's upside quite a bit. But it's worth noting that in 2015 Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts combined for a line of 89-1142-6. Fuller's probably never going to be an 89 catch guy, but even with Hopkins getting nearly 200 targets, there are still enough targets to go around in Houston for fantasy relevance if Fuller is as talented as the Houston front office and Bill O'Brien clearly think he is.
8. Michael Thomas- It's weird that I think I'm going to end up being lower on Thomas than the consensus after spending all of the pre-draft process standing up for him when the analytics types were way too down on him (I also grabbed him in most of my devy leagues last year). I still like Thomas quite a bit and think he landed in a solid spot. However, I also think the big passing stats put up in New Orleans obscure how hard it will be for Thomas to make a major fantasy impact and this isn't an ideal landing spot. Cooks is going to get plenty of targets again. The Saints throw it to their running backs more than any team in the league. Coby Fleener got more than $7M per year and the Saints have always targeted their tight ends heavily. Plus, Willie Snead and Brandon Coleman are solid players as well who are going to get their targets. Maybe Thomas ends up being such a big-time receiver that the Saints break tendencies and feed both him and Cooks at the expense of the tight ends, backs and other receivers, but I wouldn't bet on it.
9. Hunter Henry- I've been surprised that Henry is falling to the late-2nd in most dynasty drafts. I absolutely love him at that point and am willing to take him higher. Probably going to end up on most of my teams. We are talking about a guy who went at the very top of the 2nd-round to one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. A team that features the TE in the passing game very heavily. I watched McCoy and Telesco's press conference after this pick and they repeatedly mentioned that while he's a solid blocker, they drafted him for his receiving abilities and expect him to be a huge part of the pass offense going forward. He's a 4.66 40 guy, so he's not a slug. It might take a couple years (once Gates retires), but I love Henry's chances of developing into a fantasy TE1 and don't think the Jason Witten comparisons are too far off. Henry made a number of big plays as an 18-year old true freshman in the SEC and just turned 21 a few months ago. There's more upside here than most seem to think.
10. Tyler Boyd- In a normal year, Boyd would probably be a late-2nd rounder. I don't love him and the landing spot isn't great for him long-term. But he is a slot guy with great hands and you never know what the future holds situationally. If he ever gets heavy target-volume, he does have some real PPR upside and he could be a bye-week flex option right away as a rookie. Unless I really need a RB, I'm inclined to bet on the skill-set and 2nd-round draft status given how mediocre the rest of the options look.
11. C.J. Prosise- I've been too high on Thomas Rawls this spring and overrated him a bit, but I still think Rawls is the guy to own in Seattle. Prosise is worth a late-1st in this draft class though because if he does end up hitting, the upside is pretty immense. Seattle tends to lean pretty heavily on one running back most games and if Rawls gets hurt or Prosise simply beats him out (impressive physical package), he has legit fantasy RB1 upside which is more than you can say about most of the backs in this class.
12. Kenneth Dixon- It's hard to get too excited about a guy drafted 134th overall. Even if he does beat out Javorius Allen and Justin Forsett this year, does he just get replaced next year by one of the half-dozen highly talented 2017 backs? I do like Dixon's intangibles and if you have to bet on one of the Day 3 backs, Trestman's love of throwing to the running back gives Dixon some real upside.
13. DeAndre Washington- A personal favorite of mine amongst the guys going late (seems to be a 3rd rounder in the early drafts that have been posted). So obviously you don't need to take him at the top of round 2 to get him. Reggie McKenzie was pretty glowing in his praise of Washington and he has very little competition to win the #2 job in Oakland right away. I wasn't real impressed with Latavius Murray last year and it wouldn't take much (an injury, some fumbles) for the door to open wide for Washington to take on an even bigger role. Plus, the Oakland OL looks pretty loaded and that is clearly an ascending offense so if things do unexpectedly fall into place for Washington, the fantasy upside for PPR leagues is immense.
14. Devontae Booker
15. Kenyan Drake
16. Carson Wentz
17. Tyler Higbee
18. Jared Goff
19. Leonte Carroo
20. Austin Hooper
21. Wendell Smallwood
22. Paul Perkins
23. Jordan Howard
24. Malcolm Mitchell
25. Tyler Ervin
26. Pharoh Cooper
27. Braxton Miller
28. Jordan Payton
29. Seth DeValve
30. Demarcus Robinson