* New York Giants -7
* Giants/Seahawks UNDER 41
These are a couple of my favorite picks this week as I’m continually amazed at how bad the Seattle offense is. Even two weeks ago when they beat Arizona I was watching that game and marveling at how inefficient the offense looked. This week, things likely get no better as QB Matt Hasselbeck is out and will be replaced by Charlie Whitehurst, who has never thrown an NFL pass. Unfortunately for Whitehurst, he faces a very tough New York defense which ranks #1 against the pass allowing just 4.98 yards per pass attempt this season. We’ve seen the Giants get to opposing quarterbacks multiple times this year, with Okung expected to sit out again this week protection will be a real issue for Seattle and I would not be surprised at all to see a couple of turnovers out of Whitehurst as he faces constant pressure. While the Seattle defense is still a tough unit in my opinion, they draw a difficult assignment this week matched up against Eli Manning and the high flying Giants offense. The Giants are throwing for 6.78 yards per pass attempt and running for 4.8 yards per rush attempt, both ranking 6th best in the NFL. The Giants do have the tendency to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, but coming off of a bye I expect them to have some of those issues cleaned up a bit. Seattle’s defense will play the Giants tough, but in the end New York leaves with a fairly convincing win. I expect a final score along the lines of 23-10 New York.
* San Diego Chargers -3
* Chargers/Texans UNDER 50
This Chargers game reminds me quite a bit of when the Texans played the Giants a few weeks ago, and I expect things to go similarly this time. As we’ve been seeing all season, the Texans are struggling protecting Matt Schaub, especially against teams with an above average pass rush. They surrendered three sacks to the Giants, with Schaub turning the ball over twice and throwing for under 200 yards. The Chargers are a very similar pass defense to the Giants, they apply pressure just as well, they allow only .2 yards per pass attempt more, they can definitely bottle up the Texans’ passing game much like New York did. Their rush defense is equally as impressive as well. They’re allowing just 3.48 yards per carry, 5th best in the NFL (Giants are 4th). Foster will struggle much like he did against New York (11 carries for 25 yards), I expect another long day for Houston’s offense as they struggle to put points on the board once again. As for the Chargers’ offense, they’re again without their top two wide receivers, and it looks pretty likely that they’ll be without Antonio Gates in this game as well. Even if Gates does try and play, he’s likely going to be pretty limited by his injury and won’t put up monster numbers. Despite how bad the Houston pass defense is (allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 2nd worst in the league), San Diego is simply missing too many weapons to explode for 30+ points. However, Rivers is still finding ways to produce with his replacement wide receivers, and he will find ways to exploit the Houston pass defense. I know the Chargers have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot on the road this year, but sooner or later they’re going to get past those issues and show that they’re one of the best teams in the NFL. I think this is the week, look for an easy Chargers win with a point total that stays in the low 40s.
