*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/netherlands-pledges-ukraine-4-bln-euros-military-support-through-2025-2024-04-12/

The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with an additional 1 billion euros ($1.06 billion) in military support this year, and has earmarked 3 billion euros for 2025, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Friday.
The extra support in 2024 takes the total sum for this year to 3 billion euros and will be complemented by 400 million euros in aid to support Ukraine's economy, Rutte said in a post on social media platform X.

Ukrainian soldiers' families angry after demobilization clause removed from bill to increase troops

The army chief abandoned the measure that would have allowed soldiers who had been fighting for three years to return to civilian life for fear of destabilizing the frontline.

www.lemonde.fr

Of the more than 4,000 amendments made to the controversial text in recent months, only a few dozen have been retained by the parliamentary committee responsible for national security and defense. On the evening of April 9, the body responsible for studying the bill announced that it had finalized the document, which had been extensively modified since its first reading in February.
However, the adoption of the text was overshadowed by the anger of a section of the population after the last-minute announcement of the withdrawal of one of the main clauses. This measure, which would have allowed soldiers to apply for demobilization after 36 months of service, had been at the heart of debates for several months. Iryna Friz, an MP and member of the National Security and Defense Council, also stated that several financial "incentives" had been withdrawn.
The commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Syrsky, decided to abolish the clause awaited by many soldiers, exhausted after two years on the front. "We can't make hasty decisions," defense ministry spokesperson Dmytro Lazutkin justified on national television on Wednesday, citing Russian advances along the frontline. "We must understand that the escalation of Russian aggression continues." A new draft law on rotations and demobilization is expected to be drafted within the next eight months.
Faced with Russia's significantly greater mobilization capacities, the Ukrainian military authorities find themselves caught between the need to hold the front and the urgency of bringing in new recruits. For many young men still hesitant to enlist, the prospect of unlimited service, as is the case today, is a deterrent. In January, an anonymous 37-year-old Ukrainian told Le Monde the fears of some of these undecided men: "It's like having to choose between dying and being sent to hospital without arms or legs, there's no third option."

The announcement of the demobilization clause's withdrawal has provoked a wave of indignation in the country. Soldiers' wives, who have been meeting weekly in groups for the past months to demand the return of their husbands, have called for a demonstration. Many soldiers also took to social media to express their outrage.
For some, like Maksym Nesmiyanov, the decision is even more difficult given that it was made on the eve of the bill's examination. On Facebook, the soldier described it as a "disaster": "How was it possible to promise the demobilization of soldiers from December 2023 and abandon them at the end!!!! You can't take away soldiers' hope of coming home !!!!"
On the same social media page, serviceman Kostyantyn Nemichev also criticized a situation "which may lead to an increase in all kinds of trouble within the army." "We know what we're fighting for and we're ready to fight to the bitter end," said the founder of the Kraken Ukrainian volunteer unit. "But it would be right and proper to give those who have given the early years of their lives the opportunity to take a well-deserved rest."
The military high command is in an extremely difficult position, short of men and ammunition, and with international aid still insufficient to hold out against Russia. In recent weeks, the Ukrainian president has repeatedly warned of the risk of a new Kremlin offensive in the coming months.
Some soldiers and experts understand the power dilemma. "Escalation is taking the form of air strikes at the moment, but there could be escalation on the ground too, a risk of intensified offensive action by the Russians," said Volodymyr Fesenko, a respected political scientist and director of the Penta Center for Political Studies in an interview with Ukrainian media outlet Nv.ua. "The Russians already have a numerical advantage," he said. "If we continue to demobilize under these circumstances, we will destroy our defenses ourselves."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Military intelligence: Russia sending units from Far East to replenish losses in Ukraine

Russia is sending troops from its far eastern Pacific Fleet to replenish personnel losses in Ukraine, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on April 12.

kyivindependent.com

Moscow is now deploying the personnel of the Pacific Fleet and the 11th Army of the Air Force to replenish its losses in Ukraine, as well as to staff new military units, HUR said.

The Pacific Fleet and 11th Army of the Air Force "were not previously directly involved in hostilities against Ukraine," according to HUR.

The commander of the Pacific Fleet has reportedly stopped rotations to Syria and instead is sending around 2,000 personnel from Russia's Far East to Ukraine.

Ukraine additionally allocates close to $100 million for fortifications

Around Hr 1.7 billion ($43 million) will be devoted to building up defenses in Kharkiv Oblast and Hr 1.5 billion ($38 million) to Sumy Oblast. Additional funds will also be provided to Donetsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts, Shmyhal said.

kyivindependent.com

The government has allocated an additional Hr 3.88 billion (almost $100 million) for the construction of fortifications, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on April 12.

Around Hr 1.7 billion ($43 million) will be devoted to building up defenses in Kharkiv Oblast and Hr 1.5 billion ($38 million) to Sumy Oblast. Additional funds will also be provided to Donetsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts, Shmyhal said.

Russian media: Chinese banks block payments from Russia for electronic parts

The first issues with purchases for electronics started back in December 2023, mainly related to finished products, Kommersant said, citing representatives of the Russian business.

kyivindependent.com

Chinese banks have begun blocking payments from Russian companies for electronic component purchases since late March, the Russian state-controlled media outlet Kommersant reported on April 12.

Some Russian businesses connected the complications to Western sanctions. The pressure of trade restrictions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine has been recently putting a heavy strain on Russia's international business and financial ties, namely with China.

Rebuilding Kyiv Oblast power plant possible but 'futile' without air defense, Centerenergo says

The Trypillia Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv Oblast can be restored with international help but this will be "futile" without more air defense, Andrii Hota, the chair of Ukraine's state energy company Centerenergo's supervisory board, told Voice of America on April 11.

kyivindependent.com

The Trypillia Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv Oblast can be restored with international help but this will be "futile" without more air defense, Andrii Hota, the chair of Ukraine's state energy company Centerenergo's supervisory board, told Voice of America on April 11.

The Trypillia Thermal Power Plant was completely destroyed in a Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure on April 11, leading to the total loss of Centrenergo's generating capacity.

The plant is located less than 30 kilometers south of Kyiv and was the main power supplier to Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Cherkasy oblasts.

The Russian strike led to a large-scale fire in the turbine house of the plant. All of the plant's workers who were on the shift during the attack survived.

"We can restore everything," Hota said, but this will require the help of international partners, as equipment like turbines or transformers come from European countries.

"But without a sufficient number of missiles for anti-aircraft defense, it will, to put it mildly, be a futile affair," Hota added.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Colonel: Despite losses, Russia's battle tempo not decreasing

Despite heavy losses, Russia's battle tempo has not decreased in Ukraine, said Col. Eero Rebo, head of the Defense League Headquarters. Ukraine is still waiting for promised ammunition and the soldiers are becoming tired.

news.err.ee

Despite heavy losses, Russia's battle tempo has not decreased in Ukraine, said Col. Eero Rebo, head of the Defense League Headquarters. Ukraine is still waiting for promised ammunition and the soldiers are becoming tired.

Frequent battles continue in Ukraine, mostly in the direction of Luhansk and Donetsk, Rebo said at the Ministry of Defense's weekly press conference on Friday.

Russia is suffering heavy losses, and, so far this month, it has lost 11 armored vehicles, including three tanks.

The improved weather conditions are working in Russia's favor, the colonel said, and its forces are making obvious attempts to advance with larger armored units.

"Despite losses, the Russian Federation has not lost the offensive tempo and maintains a significant initiative," he said.
Rebo said Ukraine is still waiting for promised Western weapons and ammunition to arrive. Soldiers are tired. "At the moment, however, there are no signs of any unplanned retreats in Ukraine or of any units refusing to go into battle," he said.

Russia has continued to bomb Ukrainian civilians, and evacuations are taking place in the border areas.

Ukraine has successfully retaliated against various Russian military airfields and objects connected to the oil industry.

In the direction of Luhansk, the Russian armed forces have made progress in the area between Kreminna and Lyman, although they have lost a hundred armored vehicles, including tanks, during this year, Rebo said.

In the direction of Donetsk, which has been the focus of the spring campaign so far, Russia is focusing on capturing the settlement of Chassiv Yar in the west. "Or they are trying to do the same thing that they did to Avdiivka, i.e. they are trying to put it under siege and push the Ukrainians out," Rebo clarified.

Russia has tried to encircle Chassiv Yar and advance to its outskirts. The Ukrainian armed forces are heavily protected inside the settlement, the colonel said.

To the south, fighting is taking place around Avdiivka and Marinka.

In the direction of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Ukraine continues to hold bridgeheads, which are under heavy long-range fire and other attacks. "It is not calm on this front – various clashes are constantly taking place, not only with long-range fire but also directly with maneuver units," Rebo noted.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1778773972177305755

️The moment of launching the French AASM-250 "Hammer" high-precision aerial bomb from the Ukrainian Su-27 fighter

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1778778477753180219

UK-donated L119 105mm guns will be repaired/ maintained in Ukraine rather than shipped outside the country. Ukraine eventually wants to produce them in-country. Also, Ukraine and Sweden will explore Ukrainian production and support for CV90 IFVs.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1778770042571620637

A car of a former officer of the Ukrainian SBU, Vasily Prozorov, was blown up in the Russian capital, Moscow, on Friday. According to reports, was hospitalized with leg injuries.

Vasily Prozorov worked in the SBU until 2018. In 2019, he announced that he had collaborated with Russia since 2014 until his departure from the agency "for ideological reasons".

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1778762493474885867

The United Kingdom is considering providing Ukraine with its latest DragonFire laser weapon to combat air targets, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said, the Telegraph reports. According to him, the United Kingdom plans to have DragonFire in service by 2027.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1778561867457208557

USA has approved the transfer of 12 Norwegian operationally capable F-16 Fighter Jets, and 10 more F-16s that could be used for spare parts, reports Norwegian Media

65 F-16s have been approved for transfer by USA: 24 from Netherlands, 19 from Denmark, and 22 from Norway

 

[The Z Machine]

Russian Orthodox Church declares “Holy War” against Ukraine and West

The Russian Orthodox Church has approved a remarkable new document that declares a holy war against Ukraine and the wider Western world, writes Brian Mefford.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Unbelievable to me that the church is simply an organ of the state and advocates for war against a neighboring people.

 

[The Z Machine]

One would think that directed energy weapons would be a massive improvement in drone defense if they can be made reliable and portable. Should be easier for slow flying drones than anything ballistic. Not sure about artillery...

 

[beer 30]

Russian Orthodox Church declares “Holy War” against Ukraine and West

The Russian Orthodox Church has approved a remarkable new document that declares a holy war against Ukraine and the wider Western world, writes Brian Mefford.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Unbelievable to me that the church is simply an organ of the state and advocates for war against a neighboring people.

Why?

 

[Chadstroma]

MSN

And on top of what they have been buying from the US, they have made huge acquisitions of South Korean equipment as well. A 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks (a top tier tank for sure), 200+ K9 self propelled howitzers and a number of FA-50 light attack aircraft.

Poland is replacing the British, French and Germans as being THE non-American power in NATO.

Sounds like they don't want to get invaded (again) any time soon.

Upon delivery, they will have in the neighborhood of 1,500 top tier tanks (mix of Abrams, Black Panther and Leopard 2's)
Well over a thousand self propelled artillery
Close to a thousand MLRS's, the bulk of which will be HIMARS
Over a thousand IFV's
30 something F-35's
30 something F-16's
30 something FA-50's
Combine that with a motivated and well-trained military (not sure how well to be honest, but certainly better trained than the Russian military) and I would put my money on Poland even without NATO fighting.

 

[Chadstroma]

One would think that directed energy weapons would be a massive improvement in drone defense if they can be made reliable and portable. Should be easier for slow flying drones than anything ballistic. Not sure about artillery...

Yea, there are some things out there,,, jammers mostly now they direct massive overloads of infared, radio frequency's, etc to jam drones. There are some you can buy now (though the FCC has outlawed them).

I would bet that we will see a resurgence of self propelled anti-aircraft artillery like the Flakpanzer Gepard which have gone well out of style. Likely seeing smaller caliber thinking something along the lines of a Phalanx system but on land on top of a chassis like a Styker.

You can bet that the development of further anti-drone tech has been sent into hyperdrive including using lasers but from what I know of the Navy's attempts to use lasers... we are pretty far off from being able to get lethal laser tech that small. But there certainly is work done and being done using microwaves, electromagnetic pulses, etc to counter drones.

 

[Chadstroma]

Speaking of Poland... I saw that they recently discussed unloading more Soviet era equipment to the Ukrainians. They should be well on their way of donating all their Soviet made equipment to Ukraine.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kharkivs-civilians-under-fire-ukraine-faces-catastrophic-air-defence-shortage-2024-04-12/

"We have a catastrophic shortage of air defence systems," Governor Oleh Synehubov told Reuters, standing in the city’s vast central plaza, Freedom Square. "Not only in the Kharkiv region, but throughout the entire country. Especially in the Kharkiv region."
The city is so near the border that Russian missiles can reach their target in less than a minute. The deployment of Ukraine’s precious air defences, such as the U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, which are high-value targets for Russian airstrikes, has to be done more cautiously so close to enemy lines, officials say.

Russia’s ferocious glide-bomb campaign

For now, Ukraine has no answer to it

www.economist.com

The bombs are carried by Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets, which lob them when flying at high speed (1,500kph) and high altitude (10km) to give them a range of up to 65km. Once released, they are almost impossible to track. So the only way of stopping them is to destroy the aircraft carrying them before they are dropped, either with long-range ground-based air-defence missiles or else by fighter jets armed with long-range air-to-air missiles.
There is a sequence of events that leads directly to the Russian glide-bomb attacks on civilian targets in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city, which lies just 30km from the Russian border. It appears that to counter the growing glide-bomb threat, the Ukrainians took the risk of moving precious Patriot missile launchers near to the front line. In late February, Ukraine announced that in just ten days it had shot down between ten and 12 su-35 and su-34s, an intolerable attrition rate for the Russians.
But on March 9th it was confirmed that a Russian Iskander missile had hit a convoy of Patriot launchers. It destroyed at least two of them and killed their crew. Since then, the glide-bomb attacks have escalated. On March 27th the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said that Russia dropped 700 glide bombs in a six-day period from March 18th. Without more Patriot batteries, or until the long-awaited arrival of f-16s armed with aim-120 missiles, which is unlikely before July, Russian pilots will continue to inflict the glide-bomb scourge with impunity.

Macron advocates a war economy that 'produces wealth'

The French president was visiting the Eurenco ammunition powder plant near Bordeaux on Thursday, where orders have soared since the start of the war in Ukraine.

www.lemonde.fr

On the premises of Eurenco, 100% owned by the French state, Macron expressed his satisfaction at the resurgence of this company of 900 employees – including 330 in Bergerac – with annual sales of €190 million, which had been struggling to survive within its decrepit walls until the outbreak of war, before suddenly regaining a central role in the global munitions race. A "beautiful symbol," according to the French president, which should create 250 jobs in Bergerac alone by 2025 – and as many in the rest of the group – thanks to the very sharp rise in international orders since mid-2023: + €1.2 billion.
"We're on the verge of a lasting geopolitical shift (...) in which the defense industry will play an increasingly important role," said Macron, wearing a safety helmet, with the plant's expansion site behind him, which had been launched in record time. "We've got to go fast, we've got to go hard, we've got to go big," he added, shortly before a working lunch with the major heads of the French arms industry, including those from Dassault, Naval Group and Nexter, who had also been invited to the site.

Until now, Eurenco's shortcomings have been one of the causes of the bottleneck to the European ammunition industry's revival, as the number of powder manufacturers is very limited. But according to Thierry Francou, Eurenco's CEO, the group, which has subsidiaries in Sweden, Belgium and soon the US, has already doubled its production in the space of a year. By 2025, it should be able to double its production of explosives and powders for small calibers, and by tenfold for large calibers, such as the 155 mm shells in great demand by the Ukrainians. This means a capacity of 200,000 shells per year by the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026.
To achieve this, Eurenco has put in place a plan both to relocate its powder production, which used to come mainly from Germany, and a €500 million investment program. €76 million of this comes from the support action for ammunition production, this new financial instrument created by the European Commission, mid-2023, to revive the ammunition industry in Europe.
Before reaching full capacity and in order not to waste Kyiv's time, Eurenco has obtained the green light from the Directorate General of Armaments "to use old army powder stocks, initially intended for destruction or reserved for training," Francou detailed. Eventually, 80% of Eurenco's production will be destined for Ukraine, with the remainder going to the French army.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US says China is boosting Russia's war machine in Ukraine

China is backing Russia's war effort in Ukraine by helping Moscow in its biggest military buildup since the Soviet era, providing drone and missile technology, satellite imagery and machine tools, senior U.S. officials said on Friday.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said U.S. President Joe Biden raised the issue with Chinese President Xi Jinping in their recent phone call and that it is a topic of discussion with U.S. allies in Europe and around the world.
One official said Chinese materials are filing critical gaps in Russia's defense production cycle and helping Moscow undertake its "most ambitious defense expansion since the Soviet era and on a faster timeline than we believed possible early on in this conflict."
"Our view is that one of the most game-changing moves available to us at this time to support Ukraine is to persuade the PRC (China) to stop helping Russia reconstitute its military industrial base. Russia would struggle to sustain its war effort without PRC input," the official said.

The Russians have likely used machine tool imports from China to increase its ballistic missile production, the officials said. They cited Dalian Machine Tool Group, one of China’s leading machine tool manufacturers, as one company supplying Russia.
In 2023, 90% of Russia’s microelectronics imports came from China, which Russia has used to produce missiles, tanks and aircraft, the officials said.
They said that Chinese companies such as Wuhan Global Sensor Technology Co, Wuhan Tongsheng Technology Co Ltd and Hikvision are providing Chinese optical components for use in Russian systems, including tanks and armored vehicles.
In addition, Russia has received military optics for tanks and armored vehicles that Chinese firms iRay Technology and North China Research Institute of Electro-Optics manufacture, they said.
The officials also said China has provided Russia with drone engines and turbojet engines for cruise missiles, and that Chinese and Russian entities have been working to jointly produce drones inside Russia.
Chinese companies are likely providing Russia with nitrocellulose to make propellants for weapons, helping Russia rapidly expand its capacity to make key munitions like artillery rounds, they added.
The U.S. officials also said China is helping Russia improve its satellite and other space-based capabilities for use in Ukraine, increasing the Russian threat across Europe. And they said the U.S. has information China is providing imagery to Russia for its war on Ukraine.

US says China is supplying missile and drone engines to Russia

Washington calls on EU to use influence in Beijing to halt weapons transfers to Moscow

www.ft.com

The US is urging Europe to step up pressure on China to stop providing Russia with weapons-related technology and machinery, including engines for cruise missiles, that Moscow is using in its war in Ukraine.
People familiar with the situation said the US believed European pressure would be critical to convincing Beijing to stop exporting chips, sensors, missile engines and machine tools to help Russia make weapons.
Senior US officials said China had been providing significant help to Russia and that Beijing believed it could avoid crossing any red lines by providing support that technically did not equate to “lethal” assistance. But they said China was providing a range of technology that was being used to manufacture everything from missiles to aircraft.
The officials said Chinese and Russian groups were also working to produce unmanned aerial vehicles inside Russia. They said Chinese entities had also provided Russia with UAV engines in addition to turbojet engines for cruise missiles.

https://twitter.com/Er_Woods/status/1778904678639530443

Engines and joint production is the big new part here. We’ve seen the rest since about Summer 2022. Very interesting if this goes beyond maintenance and existing pre-February 24th defense cooperation.

Russian troops advance in Ukraine as Kyiv runs low on air defenses

For months, Ukrainian military personnel have described the battlefield situation as dire due to a shortage of weapons and soldiers amid a renewed Russian offensive. They have reported increased Russian bombardment using guided air bombs, dropped from their planes onto Ukrainian military positions.
With resources running low, this assault in eastern Ukraine could threaten larger towns and cities such as Kostiantynivka, just west of Chasiv Yar — potentially advancing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal of seizing the entire Donetsk region, which he has already declared, illegally, to be annexed by Russia.

Chasiv Yar — west of the city of Bakhmut, which Russia’s Wagner mercenaries captured and occupied nearly a year ago — is now the new focus of Moscow’s forces, commanders fighting in the area said.
“They systematically try to advance,” said a deputy battalion commander in the 24th Separate Assault Battalion, better known as Aidar. The Washington Post agreed to identify the commander by his call sign, Chichen, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.
“We now see, due to their assaults, a large number of [Russian] armored vehicles knocked out on the outskirts,” Chichen said, adding that on Friday morning, some 20 units of heavy equipment were part of the Russian assault.
“Literally six months ago, this did not happen here,” he said. “Now there is a lot of burned-out equipment.”

Oleksander, a Ukrainian battalion commander fighting on the left flank of Chasiv Yar, said Russians are now assaulting the town directly as well as other villages at its edges. He spoke on the condition that only his first name be used because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
In recent days, the Russians had reached the outskirts of the town, he said, and he predicted that if Ukraine does not withdraw from Chasiv Yar the end of the month, fighting will probably already be taking place in the town’s center.

Chichen, the Aidar deputy battalion commander, said that Chasiv Yar could be strategic for Russian soldiers because it has high ground that is convenient for launching drone attacks. Defending a canal that runs through the eastern edge of the town will be key for Ukraine, he said.
“Now the canal is one of the main boundaries that everyone is trying to hold on to,” Chichen said. “If they have to advance, then there are restrictions on the places in which they will cross it. It will be possible to pass there by infantry, but it will be more difficult for them to cross with vehicles. Therefore, the canal is quite an important thing.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778940851538042894

Updated map from @Deepstate_UA showing Russian advances north of Pervomaiske and towards Chasiv Yar, including seizing Bohdanivka. They note that Russia is assembling reserves for the battle of Chasiv Yar.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778947752929440148

This will likely be an important battle. Chasiv Yar is located on defensible high ground. If Russia takes the city, they could potentially increase the rate of advance deeper into Donetsk Oblast as part of an expected summer offensive. Russian forces will still have to cross the canal to take the city, but they have now reached the canal southeast of the city. Immediate increased deliveries of ammunition could prove critical.

James Heappey says UK should consider sending troops to Ukraine - but away from the frontline

In a wide-ranging interview, the outgoing MP also told Sky News that Britain needs to be better prepared for war at a time of growing threats, including by reinvigorating a large "strategic reserve" force of thousands of veterans.

news.sky.com

The UK should consider sending troops to Ukraine to give training and other support to Ukrainian forces in the war with Russia - though away from the frontline, former armed forces minister James Heappey has said.

Ukraine holds talks concerning 2 Patriot system and 1 Samp-T system batteries

Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, has stated that âactive negotiationsâ with Ukraine’s allies on supplying the country with two batteries for the Patriot air defence systems and one for the SAMP/T systems are ongoing.

www.pravda.com.ua

Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, has stated that "active negotiations" with Ukraine’s allies on supplying the country with two batteries for the Patriot air defence systems and one for the SAMP/T systems are ongoing.

Russia Ratchets Up Threat to Baltics, Estonia Spy Chief Says

Russian spy agencies have adopted more aggressive tactics in the Baltic region over the past year, including bomb scares, cyberattacks and election interference, the head of Estonian counterintelligence said.

www.bloomberg.com

Russian spy agencies have adopted more aggressive tactics in the Baltic region over the past year, including bomb scares, cyberattacks and election interference, the head of Estonian counterintelligence said.
Margo Palloson, who leads Estonia’s Internal Security Service, said the pattern is part of a broader drive by the Kremlin to leverage influence in the region on NATO’s eastern frontier. Estonia, once under Soviet domination, shares a 294-kilometer (180-mile) long border with Russia.
Moscow, which has accused the Baltic nations of discriminating against ethnic Russians, has a diminished official presence in the nation of 1.3 million after scores of diplomats were expelled following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. That’s prompted Russia’s intelligence agencies to turn to social media and those traveling into Russia to recruit agents, the spy chief said.
“We are on the frontline,” Palloson said in an interview Friday in Tallinn. “This is partly motivated by revenge for supporting Ukraine.”

European countries rebuff Kyiv’s calls for more air defences

Germany has sent two Patriot systems to Ukraine but is reluctant to give more

www.ft.com

European capitals have rebuffed demands from Kyiv to send their air defence systems to Ukraine, after a week of relentless missile and drone bombardments from Russia that have destroyed critical energy plants in the war-torn country.

Kyiv is lobbying for air defence systems in Poland, Romania and Spain to be sent to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks told the Financial Times.
Kyiv foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba confirmed on a Ukrainian national news telethon late on Friday that “active negotiations” were under way with allies about acquiring two Patriot and one SAMP/T air defence systems.
While Kuleba did not name those allies, officials with knowledge of the discussions told the FT that Kyiv is in talks with Poland and Spain for a Patriot battery from each and with Romania on the French-Italian SAMP/T.
“If the countries where they are located were now ready to hand them over to us, it would be a matter of a week and we would get them,” Kuleba said.
Ukraine currently has at least three Patriot batteries and one SAMP/T battery which it received in 2023.
“They only need seven,” one person said. “But it’s complicated.”
European capitals have said that they do not have plans to send more systems to Ukraine, arguing that they need to retain their own defence capabilities.
Germany has given two Patriot systems to Ukraine but made clear this week that it would not provide any more.
“We will not be able to offer any more systems for the time being,” the defence ministry said on Monday.

The Ukrainian demands have put a spotlight on strategic minimum levels of defence capabilities, and whether European Nato states would decide to drop below what they have determined is the least amount required to defend their states in order to send equipment to Ukraine.
“I would say that any decision on going below strategic stock levels lies heavily in the hands of our defence forces and our military and should always remain confidential,” Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said this week when asked if he thought other countries should send more weapons to Ukraine.
The Polish military has insisted it cannot spare Patriots for Ukraine at a time when it is itself waiting for US deliveries after Washington last June approved a Polish order worth $15bn for Patriots and related equipment.
While also in Vilnius on Thursday, Polish President Andrzej Duda ruled out supplying Patriot systems. Instead, he said there was still a possibility Warsaw could transfer more of its Soviet-built missiles to Kyiv, without specifying which models and how many.
“In Poland, we’re just starting to build the Patriot anti-missile defence system. This system in Poland is not ready yet, so we have nothing to donate, even if we wanted to,” Duda said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s top commander says eastern frontline has ‘significantly worsened’

Outgunned forces struggle to halt Russian offensive as Berlin offers air defence system

www.ft.com

Ukraine’s top commander warned that his outmanned and outgunned army is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive, as Kyiv pleads with western partners for more air defences and a critical military aid package remains stalled in the US Congress.
“The situation on the eastern front has significantly worsened in recent days,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky wrote on Telegram during a visit to the eastern Donetsk region on Saturday.
He said a “significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions” along the 1,000km southeastern frontline was a direct result of Russian President Vladimir Putin becoming emboldened following his recent re-election.
Ukrainian and western officials have told the Financial Times that Russia may be gearing up for a large-scale attack in late spring or summer in hopes of capturing more of the regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. The Kremlin partly occupies these areas, which Putin illegally claimed to have annexed in September 2022.
Officials in Kyiv are also concerned that Moscow might be planning an assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the north-east. It is mobilising hundreds of thousands of forces and pummelling the city with rockets in preparation.

Russia seeks to paralyze Ukraine by destroying its energy infrastructure

All over the country, Russian strikes are deliberately targeting thermal and hydroelectric power stations. In the city of Kharkiv, plunged into darkness at night, emergency equipment is struggling to cope with power cuts.

www.lemonde.fr

Ukraine had already faced a campaign of strikes that severely damaged its infrastructure in the winter of 2022-2023. But the attacks of recent weeks are of a different intensity. In addition to targeting the country's entire energy distribution network, the Russian armed forces are also concentrating on its thermal and hydroelectric power stations. The largest private electricity supplier, DTEK, said it had lost around 80% of its production capacity throughout the country. "The Russians' objective remains the same as it was in winter 2022," said Maria Tsaturian, communications director of state-owned operator Ukrenergo. "But now they're using a different strategy. They're trying to destroy our system, piece by piece."

In the cafés, conversations generally revolve around the previous day's strikes and the possibility of leaving Kharkiv for safer areas. "Everyone's talking about it," acknowledged Andriy Serdiuk, an employee in a garage on the city's outskirts, "but at the moment I don't have the impression that people are leaving." In a small bookshop offering 10% discounts during blackouts, Alla Zaretchina, the sales assistant, sighed before giving her opinion on the overall mood. "We're content to live," she said. "We've gotten used to it. What else can we do?"
While the energy system is holding up for the time being thanks to spring-like temperatures and emergency equipment, the authorities are asking the population to reduce their consumption. On April 11, Sergey Kovalenko, head of Yasno, a company in the distribution network of electricity supplier DTEK, made a call on social media to save electricity at peak times: from 7 pm to 10 pm every day and continuing "through all of 2024." Energy Minister German Galushchenko also raised the possibility of increasing electricity tariffs for households.
Forecasts for the coming months remain gloomy. Omelchenko of the Razumkov Center believes that the country's energy deficit will only worsen from July until next winter. "Consumption will then increase considerably and the deficit could exceed 4 gigawatts," warned the expert, while cautioning that this is "an optimistic scenario in which Ukraine will benefit from the necessary air defense and will be able to protect its energy system." Otherwise, he estimates that millions of inhabitants could be forced to evacuate certain towns in the south and east of Ukraine during the sub-zero temperatures of winter.

Ukraine air defences overwhelmed as Russia pounds power stations

Kyiv running short of missile defence systems while US military aid dries up

www.theguardian.com

Ukraine’s air defences are being overwhelmed by concentrated waves of Russian bombing aimed at its power stations, acknowledged a senior presidential adviser after the destruction of an entire plant on Thursday.
Mykhailo Podolyak said Moscow was adopting new tactics of attacking power stations with up to “10 or 12 missiles at a time”, bypassing already stretched Patriot and other missile shields.
“The system is overloaded,” Podolyak said in an interview. “Now we have to see whether we can keep the system running, whether we need more air defence systems, especially against anti-ultrasonic ballistic missiles, and whether we can restore the destroyed facilities.”

Podolyak said the west needed to understand that Russia was “carrying out warfare against the civilian population” and complained of a lack of condemnation from the international community. “The Russians have completely destroyed one of the largest thermal power plants in Europe. But we don’t see any resolutions from the security council in the UN or any other proclamations like that,” he said.
Homes and businesses in and around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city, have suffered repeated power cuts this spring as a result of near daily Russian bombing. On Thursday, 200,000 homes were reported to be without power in Kharkiv region after a series of rockets were aimed at the area.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1779140341158879265

Good news for Kyiv. German Defense Minister Pistorius says Germany will immediately hand over another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine to ward off Russian air attacks.

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1779139502709064059

A new Russian volunteer (the one who signs MOD contract) for war in Ukraine on average makes 6 times the nation salary average

Ukraine's Three-Front War: Advancing Russians, Depleted Artillery, Exhausted Troops

The eastern Ukrainian city of Chasiv Yar is being wiped from the map as Russian jets drop heavy, guided bombs that flatten apartment blocks and elite airborne units edge into the city’s eastern outskirts. Low on ammunition and morale, Ukraine is hard-pressed to hold on across the long front line.

www.rferl.org

Ukrainian forces are exhausted, starved for artillery shells, desperate for reinforcements and rotations, struggling to hold back Russia’s offensive in several locations across the 1,200-kilometer front line. After the loss of the bigger city of Avdiyivka in February, Chasiv Yar is the next crucible, for Ukraine's troops and for the West's will to arm and support them.

"The battle for Chasiv Yar...is a litmus test for both sides," according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian open-source research organization run by a Ukrainian reserve officer that analyzed the 64th Brigade drone video. "If Ukraine were to lose control of Chasiv Yar, it could have dire consequences as it would provide a direct route for the Russian Army to advance towards key cities in the Donbas, such as Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk."

Chasiv Yar "is one of the hottest spots on the front line," said Oleksiy Melnyk, a retired Ukrainian Air Force officer and former pilot, as Russia moves closer to the goal of occupying the entirety of the two eastern Ukrainian regions that make up the Donbas: Donetsk and Luhansk.

"That's why it’s where the most intensive fighting is nowadays, and I assume that in the next weeks, there will be even bigger-scale attempts to capture Chasiv Yar," Melnyk, now a researcher at the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv think tank, told RFE/RL.

The situation on the front line is "extremely critical, possibly turning catastrophic," one Ukrainian special-forces senior sergeant, who asked to be identified only by his call sign, Frenchman, told RFE/RL.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian Orthodox Church declares “Holy War” against Ukraine and West

The Russian Orthodox Church has approved a remarkable new document that declares a holy war against Ukraine and the wider Western world, writes Brian Mefford.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Unbelievable to me that the church is simply an organ of the state and advocates for war against a neighboring people.

Yeah, maybe somebody there should read a Gospel or two.

 

[The Z Machine]

Russian Orthodox Church declares “Holy War” against Ukraine and West

The Russian Orthodox Church has approved a remarkable new document that declares a holy war against Ukraine and the wider Western world, writes Brian Mefford.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Unbelievable to me that the church is simply an organ of the state and advocates for war against a neighboring people.

Yeah, maybe somebody there should read a Gospel or two.

I'm not theologian, but whatever sort of Jesus you worship likely wouldn't be best pleased with the church a) being so involved in state affairs and b) advocating for war like this.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Drones are crowding Ukraine’s skies, largely paralyzing battlefield

“If we don’t get enough ammunition we will lose this war,” said Denys, 31, a drone commander in Ukraine’s 45th brigade who conducts surveillance deep inside Russian-controlled territory, and who is being identified only by his first name for security reasons.

In the meantime, “we are holding off their advance with FPV drones,” said Nepal, 32, a drone operator in the same brigade who, like others in this article, spoke on the condition he be identified only by his call sign, in keeping with military rules.

The sheer number of drones means the battlefield is “almost transparent on both sides,” Nepal said, speaking from a makeshift base near the front line filled with parts for FPVs.
The devices, while fairly cheap to construct, are so strategically valuable that Nepal spends hours at his desk working to repair those seized from the Russians or fixing their own in hopes they can be used again.
Jamming systems, which disrupt drone frequencies and turn pilots’ screens to static, have made missions even more difficult. Sometimes, Nepal said, he must hit his targets “being almost blind.”
There is little besides jamming the signal that troops can do to protect themselves from a drone. Nepal often watches as Russian troops, holding assault rifles, try to save their lives by shooting down his explosive-laden drones before they crash into them.
Nepal’s commander, Fox, 32, said nonstop flights of Russian drones mean “everything is in danger.” Last fall, his troops could fly their drones freely, taking out Russian targets. Now, due to jamming, they often cannot move them much more than one mile before their screens go gray.
Stanislav, 35, who runs a drone unit in eastern Ukraine said that within a 10-kilometer radius controlled by his brigade and two others, there might be 100 reconnaissance and attack drones flying back-and-forth.
“The most challenging thing to figure out is if it’s Ukrainian or Russian drones,” Stanislav said. “When you see 10 drones in the sky there’s no way to understand if it’s our drone coming back after reconnaissance in Russian-controlled territory or if it’s their drone which is coming for reconnaissance or attacking Ukrainian-controlled territory.”
Although the jamming systems he uses, developed by Ukrainian company Kvertus, help disrupt Russian flights, they also hamper his own. He said he wishes there was a “magic button” to disrupt all signals, but with drones using an increasingly wide range of frequencies such technology is not available.

‘An energy war is being waged’: former oil boss warns of price rises after Ukraine infrastructure attacks

Andriy Kobolyev calls for more weapons after Russia destroys one of Ukraine’s largest power plants

www.theguardian.com

A dramatic rise in European energy prices is inevitable if the Russian destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure continues unabated, the former chief executive of Ukraine’s state-owned oil company has warned.

Andriy Kobolyev, a former head of Naftogaz, said in an interview with the Guardian: “Russia is trying to wage a global energy war and Ukraine is part of that war and if the markets perceive that Russia is winning that war the consequences will be very serious. You will see a spike in prices all round the globe”.

He said there would be no point holding any more Ukraine reconstruction conferences until Ukraine is supplied with weapons to save its energy infrastructure from the wave of attacks by Iranian-made Shahed drones and guided bombs. “There will be no Ukrainian economy to reconstruct,” he said.

Last week a massive missile and drone attack destroyed one of Ukraine’s largest power plants and damaged others, as part of a renewed Russian campaign targeting energy infrastructure.

The Trypilska plant, which was the biggest energy supplier for the Kyiv, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions, was struck numerous times, destroying the transformer, turbines and generators and leaving the plant ablaze.

Kobolyev, one of Ukraine’s energy specialists and the chief executive of Naftogaz for seven years to 2021, has been fighting corruption charges in Ukraine that he claims are politically motivated.

He said the impact on energy prices of the Russian attacks would be twofold – a potential increase in Ukrainian demand for gas and electricity in Europe, and an overall market response to the likelihood that Vladimir Putin is winning the war in Ukraine. “If European energy markets start to believe Russians are winning this war it will have a dramatic negative effect on energy prices”.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1779855597883601283

1/
Rather direct message by the Norwegian Foreign Minister in Kyiv today.

"None of us does enough."

"We all need to do more, we need to do better. We need to think more strategically, about how we can help Ukraine to win and hence Russia to loose"
2/
Some other quotes:

"You will not win the war with air defenses but it's an important prerequisite"

"I also belong to those countries in Europe that think that Ukraine also needs to be able to strengthen it's capability to strike behind enemy lines"
3/
After mentioning the F-16 donations:

"There might also be other contributions to a more sort of deeper strike capability, which I think is imperative for Ukraine".
4/
"We are with you, not only as long as it takes, but in order to make the outcome what you want, namely to win and to expell the Russian aggressor from your lands"

My comment:
Such statements needs to be followed up by (new) actions rather quickly.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1779849838651163033

Ukraine has built and is already fielding its own analogue of Russia's "Lancet" loitering munition - the drone has a 100km range, 3kg warhead, and can hunt Russian ground targets, aerial drones and even helicopters.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-sharply-boosts-delivery-drones-armed-forces-so-far-this-year-commander-2024-04-15/

Ukraine has delivered three times more drones to its armed forces so far this year than in the whole of 2023, a top commander said, as Ukrainian forces accelerate the use of unmanned craft in the war against Russia.
"This process continues and will only grow," said Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, the commander of Ukraine's drone forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-restoring-oil-refining-capacity-knocked-out-by-drones-2024-04-15/

Russia has been able to swiftly repair some of key oil refineries hit by Ukrainian drones, reducing capacity idled by the attacks to about 10% from almost 14% at the end of March, Reuters calculations showed.
Ukraine stepped up drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure since the start of the year, hitting some major oil refineries across the world's second largest oil exporter in attacks that sent up oil prices.

Russia is repairing its refineries fast, despite difficulties in obtaining Western know-how.
That includes Rosneft-owned Ryazan plant, which put back he CDU-4 and main CDU-6 primary oil refining units into operation, as well as Kuibyshev refinery repairing CDU-4 and Syzran's CDU-5 and previously idled for maintenance CDU-6.
According to Reuters calculations, total Russian primary oil refining capacity, idled by drones, was reduced to 90,500 metric tons per day (660,000 barrels per day) from around 123,800 tons per day (907,000 bpd) previously.
However, in total, Russia's cumulative primary oil refining capacity, put offline due to various outages and maintenances, is expected at 4.4 million tons in April, up from 4.1 million tons in March.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-top-commander-says-russia-aims-capture-chasiv-yar-by-may-9-2024-04-14/

Ukraine's top commander said on Sunday Russian forces aimed to capture the town of Chasiv Yar by May 9, setting the stage for an important battle for control of high ground in the east where Russia is focusing its assaults.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

SBU: Ukraine's modernized sea drones can carry 1 ton of explosives over 1,000 kilometers away

Ukrainian naval drones Sea Baby have been modernized and can now carry almost a ton of explosives to hit a target over 1,000 kilometers away, Artem Dekhtiarenko, the spokesperson of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), said on April 14.

kyivindependent.com

Ukrainian naval drones Sea Baby have been modernized and can now carry almost a ton of explosives to hit a target over 1,000 kilometers away, Artem Dekhtiarenko, the spokesperson of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), said on April 14.

"This means that the SBU can reach a target almost anywhere in the Black Sea," added Dekhtiarenko.

In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on occupied Crimea, targeting Russian military assets in and around the Black Sea with domestically-produced sea drones and long-range missiles. Russia has illegally occupied the peninsula since 2014.

As of early February 2024, 33% of the Russian Black Sea fleet's warships had been disabled by Ukraine, the Strategic Communications Center of Ukraine's Armed Forces recently reported.

The SBU currently uses two types of sea drones — Sea Baby and Mamai, Dekhtiarenko said on national television.

"These are already new generations of drones, on the improvement of which the team of SBU specialists worked and continues to work together with other members of the Security and Defense Forces."

Netherlands, Germany, Canada to send drones to Ukraine

Canada will send 450 SkyRanger multi-mission drones, while the Netherlands, in collaboration with Denmark and Germany, will supply Ukraine with Heidrun RQ-35 reconnaissance drones worth 200 million euros ($213 million).

kyivindependent.com

Germany, the Netherlands, and Canada will supply Ukraine with drones, while Lithuania will allocate additional funds for first-person view (FPV) drone production, Ukraine's Defense Ministry reported on April 15 after a meeting of the countries' representatives.

The United Kingdom and Latvia co-lead the drone coalition, which was established in January to bolster Ukraine's drone arsenal. Seven countries, apart from the founding states, have joined the alliance, including Germany, Canada, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Sweden, Estonia, and Denmark.

Germany plans to provide Ukraine with Vector 211 reconnaissance drones without specifying the amount, according to the Defense Ministry's statement.

Canada, in turn, will send 450 SkyRanger multi-mission drones, while the Netherlands, in collaboration with Denmark and Germany, will supply Ukraine with Heidrun RQ-35 reconnaissance drones worth 200 million euros ($213 million).
Lithuania will also allocate 3 million euros ($3 million) for the Ukrainian FPV drone production.

Netherlands allocates $4.7 billion to support Ukraine until 2026

The Netherlands has allocated 4.4 billion euros ($4.7 billion) to support Ukraine until 2026, the Dutch government announced on April 15 in its spring memorandum, a preview of state budget plans for the upcoming year.

kyivindependent.com

The Netherlands has allocated 4.4 billion euros ($4.7 billion) to support Ukraine until 2026, the Dutch government announced on April 15 in its spring memorandum, a preview of state budget plans for the upcoming year.

Ukraine’s Western Operational Command introduces new commander

General Volodymyr Shvediuk has been appointed as the new commander of the Ukrainian military’s Western Operational Command, the command reported on April 15.

kyivindependent.com

General Volodymyr Shvediuk has been appointed as the new commander of the Ukrainian military’s Western Operational Command, the command reported on April 15.

The Western Operational Command is an operational unit of Ukraine’s Ground Forces responsible for eight western regions — Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi and Chernivtsi.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia Battles Historic Flooding

The Moscow Times

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

The Self-Obsession at the Heart of Putin’s Wartime Psychology - The Moscow Times

Opinion | If Vladimir Putin was just a military pensioner playing dominoes and not the president of Russia, his inner world would be important only to his relatives, whom he would pester with his historical insights.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App

@WarintheFuture: One of my big takeaways from my latest #Ukraine visit is the need to change strategy. Current war strategy is focussed on 'defending Ukraine'. This is now a strategy for defeat and must evolve. 1/10...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Zelenskyy irritated by US request not to hit Russian refineries â The Washington Post

US Vice President Kamala Harris met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the Munich Security Conference in February and urged him to refrain from striking Russian oil refineries.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[themeistersinger]

Norway says it is handing over F-16s to Ukraine for strikes deep into Russian rear

Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide has said that the F-16 aircraft that his nation would provide to Ukraine will assist Ukraineâs Armed Forces in landing strikes deeper into Russian territory.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1779998733435830532

Writing in the FT, Czech Prime Minister Fiala confirms that the Czech Republic has officially contracted 180,000 artillery shells for Ukraine and is working to secure a further 300,000.

"The scheme is deceptively simple, which is why it has achieved significant success so soon"

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1779986434281095185

The front-line units say they face a severe shortage of basic equipment such as the U.S.-made M113 armored personnel carriers and even Soviet-era BMP infantry vehicles.

Dozens of servicemen from three battalions who spoke to the Kyiv Independent stressed that the deficit is so critical that in their units, which number 300 to 600 infantrymen, they only have one M113 and BMP each – jeopardizing evacuation.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1780007371709767882

Map from @Deepstate_UA showing Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka towards Ocheretyne and Novobakhmutivka.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Thread: https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1780183950507262201

This is already making rounds, so I will try to shed some more light on March/April 2022 Ukraine-Russia talks since the article is still far from the point, and because Poland played a much bigger role than anyone is willing to admit publicly
Charap & Radchenko rely heavily on the *Western* sources, but these were interesting times when our Western colleagues found themselves not being really in the loop, although they happily provide you with some post-factum interpretation today
We were never close to any deal. Russia never negotiated in good faith. Moscow sent a delegation that was composed of the most anti-Ukrainian officials you can imagine. Their goal was to present the Ukrainian side with an ultimatum, not to *negotiate*
During the talks, the Russian officials issued threats against members of the Ukrainian delegation and their families. This pretty tells you what the Russian attitude was at that particular time
While still in Belarus, the Russian delegation openly suggested to the Ukrainian delegation that they declare capitulation. Ukrainians responded with a now legendary sentence: иди на хуй (roughly: f* off)
The talks moved to Turkey then. On the plane, members of the Ukrainian delegation had symptoms of poisoning. Later on, test results proved an unknown chemical substance in the body of now Ukraine's Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov. Russians "sent a message" - we can get you
Russia never abandoned its maximalist goal. Realising that the plan to seize Kyiv "in three days" had failed, Moscow wanted to subjugate Ukraine at the negotiating table, but missed the moment when the fortune turned in favour of Ukraine and they were thrown out from Kyiv region
Unlike our Western colleagues, Poland believed from the beginning that the Russians were bluffing and so we advised accordingly our Ukrainian friends. We were in a pretty comfortable position to do it, since Polish SOF provided security for the Ukrainian delegation
Yes, Ukraine was ready to make concessions, but they were conditional on western security guarantees, which the West was ultimately not ready to give (one reason was that our western colleagues simply did not know much about the talks as such)
The talks collapsed because the Russians never negotiated seriously, and so they did not show due flexibility (contrary to what Charap and Radchenko claim). Russia demanded Ukraine's demilitarisation and aimed at sanctioning of Russian influence over Ukrainian domestic
And then Bucha came. The scale of Russian crimes was so huge that it shocked even the Polish side (which, after all, has experienced Russian atrocities itself). Further talks with Russia were simply no-go for Zelensky, especially that Russian troops were already on defensive
Ever since, Russians have argued that an agreement with Ukraine was close, but the West intervened, notably Boris Johnson, whom Russia accused of forcing Ukraine to abandon the negotiations
This bears no relation to reality, of course, but somehow still resonates with many of the Western decision-makers and their pundits. But Velina puts nicely what I think of that as well:
If you wanna know *a bit* more, please read this article, published by an authoritative Polish media outlet. Yep, it's in Polish, but Google Translate or AI would do the job these days
I admit that Charap & Radchenko did a good job, this is possibly the best article on Ukraine-Russia talks I have ever read. The problem is that the point of reference is so lame. And that's why even a good text doesn't reflect half of what really happened these days of 2022
On a last note - the flawed theory that Ukraine-Russia deal was reportedly almost there has been and will be used in the public debate to share the narrative that Ukraine should accept the Russian demands (since it reportedly accepted them in 2022, which, again, was *not* true)
I don't think that Charap and Radchenko deliberately omitted Poland and the Polish sources. I guess they have simply been unaware of the role that Poland played in the whole story. Western experts often think that Central Europe has no agency, but sometimes we prove them wrong

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1780197937378631881

Zelenskyy: “Eleven missiles were headed towards [the Trypilska power plant]. The first seven, we took down. Four destroyed Trypilska.
Why? Because we had zero [interceptor] missiles. We ran out of all missiles.”

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1780235362301792542

“Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov has been appointed as a new commander of the Southern Operational Command's forces, the command said on April 16. Shapovalov is replacing the command's previous chief, Andrii Kovalchuk, who was appointed as the head of the Odesa Military Academy last week.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Interceptors And Escorts: Drone Tactics In Ukraine Are Evolving Fast

Drone tactics are evolving fast, with interceptors used to bring down bomber drones while operators are being trained in dogfight skills.

www.forbes.com

With so many drones from both sides at the front it is inevitable that encounters will occur; since 2022 there have been occasional ‘dogfights’ with operators using their unarmed machines to knock opponents out of the sky. Now, however, we are seeing a different pattern. Rather than random encounters, there are deliberate intercepts, with small quadcopters attacking bigger bombers.
This is similar to the pattern in WW1, as early biplanes evolved from scouts to light attack craft and then fighters whose main task was bring down attacking bombers and gain aerial supremacy. This was necessary because the only thing that could effectively take on an aircraft was another aircraft. Almost a hundred years later the same sort of action is playing out in miniature in a struggle to gain control of low-level drone airspace.

Ukraine’s ‘Baba Yaga’ heavy bombers fly by night, dropping multiple bombs with pinpoint accuracy to take out tanks and other vehicles, spreading fear among Russian troops. They can be heard but not seen, and apart from sporadically-effective jamming, the Russians have not found an effective way of downing them Now videos are emerging of Russian FPVs deliberately seeking out and ramming Baba Yagas.
This is not happening by accident.
“There is now official training at the front with certain battalions where drone on drone combat is incorporated into pilot training courses,” Samuel Bendett, an expert Russian drones and adviser to both the CNA and CNAS, told me, mentioning an article in Russian state media TASS which describes this.

The Russians are also modifying drones to make them more efficient at air-to-air combat. In March one Russian group displayed a new drone known as “Ram” a quadcopter fitted with metal spokes to damage enemy rotor blades with impunity. This type of modification may be inspired by the annual DroneClash competition held in the Netherlands, a capture-the-flag game in which teams needed to eliminate each others drones in air-to-air combat and drones were fitted with lances, chains and other such weapons

Ukrainian forces are using similar tactics against Russian fixed-wing attack drones. There are no videos of FPVs intercepting Shaheds yet; purpose-made interceptor drones from the U.S. may be having some success Shaheds but no details are being released for security reasons.
There are numerous videos of Ukrainian operators taking down smaller Russian attack drones, such as this one from the celebrated Birds of Magyar and this one downing a twin-boom drone over the Dnipro River.
The logic of these intercepts is obvious: air defence missiles are rare and precious assets costing hundreds of thousands of dollars or more, and are reserved for major threats like cruise missiles. FPV drones costing a few hundred dollars are plentiful and it makes sense to use them wherever possible.
As Ukraine develops bigger, long-ranged FPVs, these too may be used for air defense. This week President Zelensky inspected a new ‘Ukrolancet’ kamikaze drone which in addition to hitting targets on the ground, can also target low-speed air vehicles, specifically Russian Orlan-10 and Shahed drones, with a machine-vision system to aid intercepts.

Tactics are evolving constantly. Now the Russians have started to intercept Baba Yagas, the Ukrainians are giving their bombers fighter escorts. This Ukrainian video appears to show a Ukrainian quadcopter covering a Baba Yaga and taking out the Russian drone attempting to intercept it, suggesting that drone tactics are already looking more like WWII than WW1.
Sam Bendett mentions Russian reports of Baba Yagas being seen in pairs with a group of FPVs as escort. The escorts are continually refreshed as batteries run low and FPVs return to a battery swap and are replaced by others. The FPVs can act as close-up scouts or attack ground targets as well as providing a defensive screen against enemy drones.

Russia Is Trying to Force Ukrainians to Abandon Their Second-Biggest City

Ukrainian and Western officials see Russia’s escalated bombardment of Ukraine’s No. 2 city as a way to force the evacuation of civilians, they said.

www.bloomberg.com

Ukrainian and Western officials see Russia’s escalated bombardment of Ukraine’s No. 2 city as a way to force the evacuation of civilians, they said.
Kharkiv, a northeastern city less than an hour’s drive from the Russian border, has been hit with an escalating barrage of missiles, drones and heavy guided bombs over the past month. The assault has battered power-generation infrastructure and left swathes of residential buildings in ruins.
The city — whose pre-war population was about 1.5 million — has come under regular attack since Russia’s invasion began in 2022. But the Kremlin’s latest action looks like a coordinated effort to cut off supplies and create conditions that make the city uninhabitable, the officials said on condition of anonymity.

Almost nobody is predicting that Kremlin forces will be able to seize the sprawling city any time soon. Ukraine’s military is fortifying its defenses, while officials around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy estimate that Russia doesn’t have enough resources to mount a serious offensive, according to officials familiar with the thinking in Kyiv. That’s left them to create a sense of panic, they said.
US and other Western officials agree that Russia doesn’t have the capability to attack Kharkiv without a major replenishment of Russian troops, according to people familiar with the discussions.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Analysis: Combat use of AI in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has become an incubator for the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in combat. Developers and programmers on both sides have set about building algorithms for battlefield uses including autonomous navigation, target identification and engagement, and intelligence processing
From the available evidence, the AI in use is beneficial on a small scale but ultimately it is a maturing technology that requires further development to fully realise its potential. However, properly deployed and managed AI can improve rapidly, because of this, the uses of AI in Ukraine are worth monitoring in order to understand its beneficial use cases as well as its limitations.

Tactical

The crunchiest applications for AI in Ukraine can be observed on the mass of small drones that are produced in their thousands every month by volunteers and small companies set up to meet the needs of the war. The presence of Russian electronic warfare (EW) along the frontline is significant, and in some areas, several systems are layered and operated at full power to provide more comprehensive jamming of satellite navigation signals. Where this is the case, Ukrainian units might be forced to sacrifice drones to test whether Russian EW is active, or unable to fly anything effectively for real time targeting. EW effects are occasionally deactivated, but this is usually to allow a Russian air strike. Because of this, autonomous navigation using AI has made its way into some small drones. It typically uses algorithms trained on imagery of the locations to enable the drone to navigate without satellite guidance.

Both Russia and Ukraine have developed algorithms to assist with the targeting of first-person view (FPV) drones. One Russian system is referred to as the Gadfly and its AI homing capabilities were publicly displayed in the summer of 2023. Ukraine has developed and deployed the Saker drone, which uses AI to locate and identify targets. It may also have some form of AI-assisted targeting. Furthermore, videos that appear to show FPVs with bounding boxes as part of their final approach have increased since early 2024. The use of AI is assumed based on the presence of a bounding box around the identified vehicle. Bounding boxes are used in object detection for computer vision; it will often take the form of a green rectangle that will appear around the vehicle to indicate its location and the confidence rating that it is what the computer thinks it is. Their presence suggests that an algorithm is locating the vehicle in question, which means it is theoretically possible that the algorithm is helping the drone track and engage the target.

It is worth noting that many of these efforts are launched by small volunteer organisations. The Gadfly has been developed by volunteers as has Saker, this does not necessarily mean that these efforts are inferior to those of larger defence or AI companies, but it may mean that the systems are developed using commercially available algorithms and that there are fewer AI specialists able to work on them. This can impact the pace of development and the iteration cycles that are used to rapidly bring algorithms and software up to the standards that users expect. “In Ukraine, the technology, and the market both move fast and are only getting faster. To have any relevance you have to commit quickly, build collaboratively and deploy an MVP[1] into users’ hands,” Will Blyth, CEO of Arondite, a defence AI company that is working in Ukraine told EDR Magazine. “That’s when the most important part of the work actually starts: Collecting lots of real-world feedback, incorporating it into your product and redeploying something before the world changes again. This calls for pragmatic, practical and dedicated AI engineers who are focussed on outcomes and build fast,” he added, underlining the rapidly changing nature of the technology in use.

Deep strikes

On the 2nd of April, CNN published a report indicating that Ukrainian drones used to strike Russian oil refineries had used computer vision to autonomously navigate to their targets and engage them. This is essentially an AI-enabled version of the radar-based terrain matching capabilities of Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles (TLAM). However, it is worth noting that it is not clear whether the computer vision on Ukraine’s strike drones enables them to fly a terrain hugging profile, as is the case for the TLAM. Russia also employs the Lancet loitering munition, which in some cases carries an Nvidia TX2 Jetson, a small computer built for the use of AI at the edge of a network. This means that the Lancet, which has a range of 50 km, may also be capable of some form of autonomous navigation. Both cases provide an indication of the potential for AI to improve the resistance of precision strike munitions to jamming and spoofing.

Air defence

Respeecher is a Ukrainian company that developed an app to mimic celebrity voices by using AI. The technology has found an interesting new use in Ukraine, where it is employed as part of the Zvook acoustic detection system. Algorithms have been trained on the sounds of Russian cruise missiles and paired to acoustic sensors located around Ukraine. The network is designed to track Russian missiles and provide an indication of their flight path. In theory, this allows Ukraine to carefully position its radars and air defence systems and use Zvook to monitor any potential weak points in its radar coverage. Again, this system was developed by volunteers from Respeecher, an IT company called i3 and Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Force.

In May 2023, Russian press excitedly reported on an S-350 air defence system that had engaged a target autonomously using AI. As is typical for Russian announcements, details were scarce, but if the system did perform this engagement with the help of AI it raises interesting prospects. It is theoretically possible to fuse the outputs from multiple sensors into a single recognised air picture. The US Army’s ICBS achieved this in 2020, when it used radars from Patriot and Sentinel to engage a pair of cruise missiles. It is not clear whether the ICBS uses any machine learning to help process its targeting information, but similar effects can be attained through AI-enabled sensor fusion. The use of edge computing and sets of algorithms designed to interpret the data generated by radars and other sensors and combine those outputs into a single picture would enable this. Going one step further and allowing AI to make decisions about air defence engagements could prove more successful than human operators – especially after several learning cycles.

This also touches on an important distinction to make: the Aegis air defence system onboard US Navy Arleigh Burkes can operate autonomously. In this mode, which is rarely used, the ship’s battle management system takes control of its radars and interceptors. It is programmed to protect the ship, which means it may exhaust its missile cells unnecessarily or engage other targets that are not considered threats. To do this, the Arleigh Burke employs thousands of lines of code that have been written by programmers, it is not possible for the ship to do anything other than what its code states. Put simply, “if target matches these conditions, engage in the following way.” An air defence system enabled by AI on the other hand, has taught itself how to conduct air defence from a blend of synthetic and real data. Once deployed operationally, it would theoretically be capable of learning and improving its capabilities based on data from previous engagements. This can improve its response to the next set of threats and overall success rate.

Analysis

Ukraine is showing what is possible with AI in a military context, but many efforts would be regarded as concept demonstrators or low TRL and under-developed by some industry standards. Proper infrastructure allows for rapid upgrades and iterations of algorithms to improve their capabilities after each new operational experience. The extent to which either side possesses this infrastructure or the engineers necessary to fully maximise the potential of AI-enabled capabilities is unclear. Nevertheless, it does appear that having many different clusters all innovating independently is valuable for the rapid development of AI for military applications.

Technically, the systems on display provide resilience to EW and likely improve flight performance and vehicle engagements. However, they do not represent a game changing capability. Alongside the videos of FPV strikes there are many others of conventional artillery or precision strikes against conventionally reconnoitred targets. That said, the uses described above provide an insight into the potential of AI to shape warfare, and an indication of where developments are likely to be seen.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Offensive in Ukraine's east ‘priority' for Russia as it intensifies push on Chasiv Yar

Since March, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said more than once that Ukraine is expecting a major Russian offensive that could start in May or June. Ukrainian experts and military officials now say it might begin even sooner. All eyes are currently on the Bakhmut axis as Russian troops...

kyivindependent.com

Since March, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said more than once that Ukraine is expecting a major Russian offensive that could start in May or June.

Ukrainian experts and military officials now say it might begin even sooner.

All eyes are currently on the Bakhmut axis as Russian troops gradually inch toward the depleted town of Chasiv Yar, a mere 10 kilometers west of the occupied and largely destroyed Bakhmut.

⁠"Chasiv Yar is located on high ground. If Russia's able to take the city, they may be able to increase their rate of advance,”said U.S.-based military expert Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program.

Ukraine's military recently warned that Russia has set a goal to capture Chasiv Yar before May 9, when Russia celebrates Victory Day, a cult-like holiday marking the country's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

As the weather improves somewhat ahead of schedule, Russia is set to intensify its offensive in the east further, but whether it would focus on one specific area or aim to put pressure on multiple fronts is unclear, according to Western and Ukrainian military experts reached by the Kyiv Independent.

Despite Russia's increased push, offensive efforts in the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Pokrovsk areas "focus on immediate operational tasks in each individual direction but lack coordination on a theater-wide scale," according to the Center for Defense Strategies, a non-government Ukrainian think tank.

Russia's advance on the Avdiivka axis, which lies roughly 50 kilometers (31 miles) south of occupied Bakhmut, slowed in early March following a decrease in momentum after Moscow captured the city a month prior.

Moscow soon shifted its attention to Chasiv Yar – unleashing a "powerful thrust" toward the heavily ruined town while looking to identify weak spots for a breakthrough.

The hilly town has long been on the receiving end of Russian attacks, with only about 800 of the original 12,000 residents remaining as of March.
With the arrival of dry weather conditions more suitable for equipment maneuvering, Russia is expected to focus on "traditional directions," which include the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Lyman axes, according to Serhiy Hrabskyi, a retired Ukrainian colonel and military analyst.
With front-line units suffering from critical manpower and ammunition shortages, Ukrainian soldiers say their goal for 2024 would be to hold on to existing positions and wait for the arrival of the crucial Western aid.

American military expert Lee said Russia’s priorities are likely to be advancing in the Bakhmut area and west of occupied Avdiivka, located some 50 kilometers (31 miles) southeast of Pokrovsk – one of the main cities in Donetsk Oblast still under Ukrainian control.

"I think Chasiv Yar and the western Avdiivka/Pokrovsk front are the two priorities, and they likely will remain the priorities this summer,” Lee said.

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Musiienko, who heads the Kyiv-based National Defense University's Center for Military and Strategic Studies, says there are two likely scenarios for Russia's upcoming campaign.

The first would see Russia continuing to concentrate its troops in Donetsk Oblast to capture the industrial heartland while also launching "diversionary maneuvers" on the northeastern border – in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts – to distract Ukraine from its main effort, Musiienko said.
This would stretch the already constrained Ukrainian troops across the front line, with Kyiv unable to reinforce hot spots with units needed to defend the northeast.

Another possibility is that Russia could use a "full-fledged group" to attack Kharkiv, but that less likely as it would distract Moscow from its offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, Musiienko said.

Earlier in March, Russian independent media outlet Meduza, citing anonymous sources including those close to the Kremlin, reported that a large-scale Russian offensive on Kharkiv may happen, though it may require a new round of mobilization.

As the possibility of Russia's renewed attempt to capture Kharkiv makes headlines, Ukrainian officials are attempting to reassure the population that Ukraine's second-largest city is properly defended.

Zelensky has stressed that Kharkiv Oblast is the most fortified region across the front line.
But Musiienko is nonetheless convinced that Russia's priority for offensives would be fixed on the east.

Attempting a ground offensive on Kharkiv would require enormous resources, which even Russia would struggle to gather. While Ukrainian soldiers acknowledge Russia's artillery superiority and its ability to constantly deploy a mass number of troops, Moscow struggled to wage costly offensive operations simultaneously on multiple fronts in 2023 and early 2024.

"I don't think Russia is interested in suspending its offensive or reducing its tempo in the east right now," Musiienko said.

Whatever the Russian leadership's goal may be, Moscow is currently heavily attacking Kharkiv to sow panic and "create a picture" that Kharkiv residents are urgently fleeing the city over fears of it being captured, according to Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, spokesman for the Khortytsia grouping operating in the region.
"(Russian propaganda) wants to create a picture that this offensive is already underway and that Kharkiv is under direct threat," Voloshyn told the Kyiv Independent.

Voloshyn declined to comment on where Russia could launch its next offensive, saying that this information is up to the intelligence to disclose. He said that Russia is currently conducting a rotation of units on the northeastern Kupiansk front and that there haven't been any recent ground attacks in Kharkiv Oblast.

 

[themeistersinger]

‘Double-tap’ attack. Understanding one of Russia’s cruelest tactics in Ukraine

Hitting a building, waiting for first responders and the media to arrive, and hitting the same place again to target those who came to put out the fire, help the victims, or document a potential war crime is a well-honed tool of Russia in its wars. This ruthless and illegal

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Thread on Chasiv Yar: https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1780280159829958920

Other link: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1780280159829958920.html

One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar.

In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/
Chasiv Yar is an important city. It’s the last somewhat larger built area before the crucial crossroads town of Kostiantynivka and other important cities in Donetsk. Encircling the city is difficult, as the Donets-Donbas canal forms a difficult obstacle for mechanized units. 2/
Ukraine has constructed several layers of trenches and other defensive positions north and south of Chasiv Yar. Even if the Russians managed to cross the canal at some point, they would still need to break through multiple fortified positions to seriously threaten the area. 3/
In addition to the canal and fortifications, Chasiv Yar's terrain poses more challenges for the enemy. The area is dotted with small water bodies, fields and some industrial zones. The city is also located on a higher ground. 4/
At the moment, Russia has already entered the eastern edges of the city, known as Kanal. The buildings in the area can provide relatively good defensive positions. However, the defenders must be supplied through open terrain and over the canal, which can become an issue. 5/
The forests and other covered areas provide shelter for the defenders, but they also come with some difficulties. It allows the Russians to conduct infantry attacks with their so-called infiltration tactics. Such actions have been observed in similar terrain before. 6/
This means the Russians will persistently try to attrit the defender by throwing infantry detachments in these “corridors”, in order to find exploitable cracks, while also pressuring Ukrainians elsewhere in the city. If success is achieved, it will also be reinforced. 7/
Because of these aforementioned reasons, keeping the Kanal can be tricky. The Russians can try to cut the supply routes by infiltrating the Ukrainian defences from the north, and the terrain makes heavier counterattacks supported by armored vehicles difficult. 8/
Holding these dense and covered areas requires more troops. AFU must have reserves ready, so that any possible gaps can be quickly filled. This can be difficult for the Ukrainian brigades, which are not fighting in full strength. Russia has plenty of expendable manpower. 9/
It’s possible the battle of Chasiv Yar won’t consume Russian vehicles as severely as the operations in other directions, like in Terny, Novomykhailivka or the fields west of Avdiivka. Available data has not shown as extreme equipment losses in this direction. 10/
Because of the recent heavy losses elsewhere, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Russia wanted to switch to more infantry-based action in Chasiv Yar, as the terrain and Ukrainian artillery ammo shortages would also enable it.

Next, let's see which units are fighting in the area. 11/
Russians likely have elements of the following units in Chasiv Yar:

98th Guards Airborne Division
11th Guards Air Assault Brigade
4th, 85th and 200th Motorized rifle brigades
Some additional regiments from other units and also territorial/reserve regiments

12/
The Sever-V brigade is likely in the area. The "Terek" Cossack brigade may also be present. The actual size of these units is unclear.

It’s important to note that when I’m saying “elements” of certain units, it means the whole unit isn’t necessarily fighting there. 13/
Ukrainian units in the Chasiv Yar direction:

Elements of 42th, 56th, 67th, 92nd and 93rd Mechanized brigades
112th Territorial Defence brigade
Possibly 5th Assault brigade as a reserve force

Possibly elements of other units too, like the 17th Tank Brigade and 114th TDF.

14/
However, many Ukrainian brigades are suffering from a shortage of men, which may explain the current positioning on a relatively short front. There’s no indication that the Russians would be experiencing the same issue, at least not in the same magnitude. 15/
Still, actual breakthroughs are rare and the Ukrainians are still able to fight a defensive battle. Even if the Russians manage to eventually push through Chasiv Yar, it doesn’t mean they will automatically gain a significant strategic victory in Donetsk. 16/
It took the Russians almost a year to advance about 5-6 kilometres from Bakhmut to the eastern parts of Chasiv Yar. However, Ukraine is in a worse situation than before, and multiple scenarios are possible. If Russia wants to capture large areas in Donetsk, the time is now. 17/
If Ukraine manages to hold Chasiv Yar, it will make the Russian political goals significantly more difficult. There aren’t any shortcuts towards the “belt of cities” between Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk, so a failed offensive here means a more difficult grind somewhere else. 18/
Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to map and analyse the war, as we’ve already done for almost 800 days.

I’ve been a bit busy lately so I haven’t been posting as much, but our interactive map is of course updated almost daily. 19/19

Russians lose up to 70% of hardware when storming Chasiv Yar - commander

Russian invaders, when attempting to storm the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region, lose 50 to 70% of their military equipment. â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

Russian invaders, when attempting to storm the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region, lose 50 to 70% of their military equipment.
That’s according to Yuriy Fedorenko, Achilles battalion commander at the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade, who spoke on Ukrainian Radio, Ukrinform reports.

Despite ammunition shortages, Ukraine’s forces are holding their ground in the area of Chasiv Yar, where the enemy achieved no tactical gains in the past 24 hours.

The officer noted that Chasiv Yar represents a commanding height, and in the case of seizing it, the invaders would be able to take under fire control the settlements of Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and partly Kramatorsk. This, however, so far remains only in Russia’s plans as Ukraine’s defense forces are repelling the enemy rather effectively, Fedorenko added.

"I will say frankly, the amount of ammunition to feed our firepower really matters: to one of our shots, the enemy can make six to seven. But our Defense Forces utilize whatever unmanned capabilities they have to efficiently hit the enemy," he said.

According to Fedorenko, the Russians suffer significant losses both in terms of assault groups and armored vehicles. "During their mass assaults, supported by artillery, aviation, and uncrewed systems, the enemy usually loses 50-70% of the equipment involved," the battalion commander emphasized.

As reported earlier, on April 14, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Russian invaders were focusing their efforts on breaking Ukraine’s defenses west of Bakhmut in order to advance toward the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal and capture the town of Chasiv Yar. According to the top commander, the Russian military leadership ordered the invasion troops to capture the settlement by May 9.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1780421684832477206

Ukraine's 67th Mechanized Brigade, one of the units defending Chasiv Yar, is being purged of its backbone officers and enlisted personnel from Right Sector's Ukrainian Volunteer Corps (DUK PS). The Ukrainian military leadership reportedly initiated this change due to the brigade's loss of positions, its mistreatment of non-DUK PS personnel, and Syrskyi's desire to make the brigade a "regular unit." The Ukrainian Ground Forces said the brigade's assault battalion (Da Vinci) will be broken off into a separate unit. (Some Da Vinci personnel had already left for the 59th Motorized Brigade.)

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1780421334113120670

The Mash and Astra Telegram channels are saying that residents in Dzhankoy, Crimea heard explosions and shared footage of a fire at the airfield.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1780355859706483012

Further Russian advances towards Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka. @Deepstate_UA 's map shows more than 4km of gains by Russian forces in that direction over the past week.

Ukrainian nuclear power plant 'dangerously close' to accident, says IAEA chief

Russia and Ukraine exchanged blame for a spate of recent drone attacks, which have occured since April 7 on Europe's largest nuclear power plant, before the United Nations Security Council.

www.lemonde.fr

Grossi earlier said that "two years of war are weighing heavily on nuclear safety at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant," where "every one of the IAEA's seven pillars of nuclear safety and security have been compromised. "We cannot sit by and watch as the final weight tips the finely balanced scale," he warned. "We are getting dangerously close to a nuclear accident. We must not allow complacency to let a role of the dice decide what happens tomorrow," he said. The risk of a major accident is real even though the reactors are turned off, he said.

 

[themeistersinger]

Crimea Air Base Strike Leaves 30 Russians Dead, 80 Wounded: Report

MSN

 

[themeistersinger]

50K Russian Soldiers Confirmed Killed in Ukraine – Independent Tally - The Moscow Times

Over 50,000 Russian soldiers have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since the start of the Kremlin’s invasion over two years ago, according to an independent tally conducted by the BBC's Russian service and the independent Mediazona news website.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[The Z Machine]

50K Russian Soldiers Confirmed Killed in Ukraine – Independent Tally - The Moscow Times

Over 50,000 Russian soldiers have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since the start of the Kremlin’s invasion over two years ago, according to an independent tally conducted by the BBC's Russian service and the independent Mediazona news website.

www.themoscowtimes.com

That's like 3x the number killed in the Soviet invasion and subjugation of Afghanistan.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian victory in Chasiv Yar would jeopardize ‘last stronghold’ of Donetsk region, Ukrainians say

Kyiv needs Western weapons to help defend the city, an army spokesperson told POLITICO.

www.politico.eu

A Russian victory in the Ukrainian-controlled city of Chasiv Yar, currently the target of a sustained military offensive, would jeopardize the security of the remaining Ukrainian-held cities in Donetsk, a senior Ukrainian official told POLITICO on Tuesday.

“If the Russian occupiers manage to capture this city, they will have the opportunity to launch an offensive on Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk," said Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, a Ukrainian army spokesperson.

"These cities are the last stronghold of Donetsk region, which is under the control of Ukraine,” he added.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/

Russian military analysts list Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka as the "fortress cities" in Ukraine's east accessible from Chasiv Yar.
The Washington-based Institute for War Studies (IWS) think-tank describes the cities as "the backbone" of the Ukrainian army's defence in the east.
"The offensive effort to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances," ISW said in a briefing note.
The ISW warned that losing Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka in particular would be a major operational setback that would be hard to reverse.

Casualties on both sides during Russia's lengthy capture of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, to the south, have been high, though no reliable public data exists on the scale.
Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, forecast the battle for Chasiv Yar would be equally hard from a Russian perspective.
"The 'fighting for Chasov Yar' period has begun. It will be long. The fighting will be about the same as for Bakhmut," Markov wrote on his official blog.
Alexander Kots, a war correspondent for Russia's Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper who often travels with the Russian army, said airborne forces were trying to advance.
"To enter, it is necessary to first level the flanks and encircle the city, providing several entry points from different directions at once," Kots wrote on the Telegram messenger service.
"This is necessary in order to stretch the enemy's defence forces in the city and to force them to constantly move in different directions under our constant fire."
Ukrainian analysts with Deep State UA, a group that closely tracks the war, said on X that Russia was gathering reserves for the battle of Chasiv Yar.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-deliver-three-more-f-16s-training-ukrainian-pilots-romania-2024-04-17/

The Netherlands on Wednesday will hand over another three F-16 fighter jets to a training facility in Romania, where Ukrainian pilots and ground staff are being taught how to fly and maintain the planes in battle.

The Dutch had already delivered eight of the promised total of 18 F-16's to the training facility since November.
They have also promised to deliver a total of 24 F-16s for use in Ukraine, with the first ones expected to arrive in the second half of the year, adding to earlier deliveries of the aircraft by the Danish armed forces.
The Dutch government last week said it would increase military support to Ukraine to a total of 3 billion euros ($3.19 billion) this year and has earmarked the same amount for 2025.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s Chances of Pushing Russia Out Look Increasingly Grim

On the battlefronts of the east, threadbare Ukrainian forces are doggedly holding on against mounting Russian assaults that are expected to crescendo in the summer.

Thinned air defenses struggle to stop Russian 1.5-ton guided bombs from pulverizing buildings. Front lines are held by a patchwork of units that are short of their full complement of troops. Halting armored columns depends largely on small explosive drones, given meager supplies of artillery shells.

“We are short of everything,” said one company commander operating around the embattled eastern city of Chasiv Yar.

The war in Ukraine is at a critical moment as it approaches a third summer. Russia’s greater size is weighing on its smaller neighbor, with waves of armored vehicles and soldiers grinding forward against exhausted Ukrainian units across a front line that arcs from the northeast to southeast.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of outlasting Ukraine’s Western support is proving durable, and the coming months could turn the tide of the war decisively in Russia’s favor. Ukraine’s military is short on ammunition and battle-ready troops, as Congress has stalled on a supplemental aid package and Kyiv has dithered over calling up more men.

The front line is barely moving thanks to Ukrainian bravery and ingenuity—and Russian tactical weaknesses.

“We are more efficient, more effective, more technological,” said a Ukrainian officer who commands an aerial-drone unit near the eastern city of Avdiivka, which fell to Russia in February. “They go home after any defeat, but we lose our land, our homes, our people.”

A critical Russian target is the city of Chasiv Yar, located on heights to the west of Bakhmut, which Russia captured last year.

Taking Chasiv Yar, once home to just over 10,000 people, would open a path to attacking other cities, such as Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk, in the eastern Donetsk region. The province is a key target for Putin, who has declared it annexed to Russia.

A Russian raid with armored vehicles reached the eastern flank of the city earlier this month, but was repelled. A canal on that edge of the city offers a natural barrier against vehicles, but soldiers say Russia is likely to send infantry to try to get a foothold in buildings.

Ukraine is adapting by conserving its supplies and repositioning forces to better protect them and their equipment. Defenders have an advantage against attackers, who must expose themselves in order to advance. Ukraine’s military has sought to shore up defenses through networks of trenches, bunkers and minefields, although soldiers say they are patchy.

“They’re already taking some tough decisions and adopting a much more considered defensive stance,” said retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander.

Some Western military-intelligence officials believe that for now Russia is less focused on achieving immediate territorial gains than eroding Ukraine’s ability and will to fight. Russia’s increased drone and missile attacks aim to show its strength, degrade Kyiv’s resources and show Ukraine’s Western backers that supporting it is futile.

Ukraine’s main weapon for stopping Russian armored vehicles is now the first-person-view, or FPV, drone.

The explosive craft is steered via remote control by a pilot using goggles transmitting a live-video feed from onboard.

Russia has started sending larger columns of up to 20 vehicles that Ukrainian drone teams struggle to stop as FPVs can only be deployed one at a time because they share radio frequency.

One soldier described a Russian tank that was advancing with a jammer attached and nets to block FPVs. It was eventually halted by an artillery shell.

Russia is showing little care for its men, Ukrainian soldiers say.
Armored vehicles sometimes advance with soldiers perched on top, forming a barrier with their bodies that has to be blasted away before the vehicle itself can be targeted. Ukrainians call the phenomenon “meat armor.”

Ukraine’s lack of significant additional manpower means that losses are replaced piecemeal in units kept on the same part of the front for lengthy periods. While that means they are familiar with the lay of the land, it also creates a patchwork of units from various brigades that struggle to communicate and cooperate effectively.

Ukraine is moving its best units from one place on the front line to another. Battalions from the 3rd Assault Brigade, one of the army’s most powerful units, fought around Bakhmut last year, was sent into Avdiivka as defenses collapsed, then redeployed to near Kupyansk in the north.

Asked how they were holding the line with dwindling ammunition, an officer from the brigade said: “At the cost of lives.”

The best units, stacked with highly motivated volunteers and led by respected commanders, carry out their own recruiting campaigns and are oversubscribed. Others are struggling to replenish their ranks.

Kyiv this month has advanced legislation to widen the draft pool. Zelensky signed a law reducing the mobilization age to 25 from 27, and Parliament last week passed a bill offering bonuses for soldiers and penalties for draft dodgers.

But the changes will take time to filter through. The age of recruits remains a problem. One officer at a high-level training center said he is often presented with men in their 40s, some transferred from guard duty or recruiting centers. One died after suffering a heart attack during an exercise.

“Wars are won by young men,” he said.

Kharkiv at risk of becoming ‘second Aleppo’ without US aid, mayor says

Residents of Ukraine’s second city tell of the impact of increasing Russian attacks targeting suburbs and power supplies

www.theguardian.com

Kharkiv is at risk of becoming “a second Aleppo” unless US politicians vote for fresh military aid to help Ukraine obtain the air defences needed to prevent long-range Russian attacks, the city’s mayor has warned.

Ihor Terekhov said Russia had switched tactics to try to destroy the city’s power supply and terrorise its 1.3 million residents by firing into residential areas, with people experiencing unscheduled power cuts for hours at a time.

The mayor of Ukraine’s second city said the $60bn (£48bn) US military aid package, currently stalled in Congress, was of “critical importance for us” and urged the west to refocus on the two-year-old war.

“We need that support to prevent Kharkiv being a second Aleppo,” Terekhov said, referring to the Syrian city heavily bombed by Russian and Syrian government forces at the height of Syria’s civil war a decade ago.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1780597670115258767

Overnight, Ukrainian forces hit the Russian S-400 battery at Dzhankoi airbase in northern Crimea, reportedly with a pair of MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles.

The battery suffered catastrophic damage.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1780448582555808064

Ukrainian soldiers cannibalizing ERA bricks to use as explosives for FPVs from a destroyed tank.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/17/chernihiv-missile-strike-civilians-killed/

At least 14 people were killed and more than 60 wounded in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv on Wednesday when Russian missiles struck the downtown area during morning rush hour — an attack officials said could have been stopped if Ukraine had adequate air defenses.
Russia launched three Iskander cruise missiles at the city, which is just 60 miles from the Russian border and was nearly encircled by Russian troops in early 2022.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Some comments here from Budanov:

Budanov predicted that Russia will launch a big offensive starting in June to try to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk, the two provinces known as the Donbas region, which Russia has claimed but doesn’t control.

To counter the Russians, Budanov plans more cross-border attacks by the “Russian volunteers” who operate inside Russia with support from his service, along with more drone attacks. He explained: “We’ve offered a plan aimed at reduction of Russian potential. It encompasses a lot of aspects, like the military industry … critical military targets, their airfields, their command-and-control posts.”
The goal is to show that President Vladimir Putin cannot “protect the population from the war getting into Russia,” he explained. “When you’re sitting, say, in St. Petersburg, and you’re seeing the war only on TV, you will always be supportive. … But people start to get nervous when some facility [is attacked] near their house.”

Germany urges dozens of allies to send air defence systems to Ukraine

Berlin launches global call to help protect cities, troops and infrastructure from Russia’s ‘murderous onslaught’

www.ft.com

Germany has written to dozens of countries including Gulf Arab states to plead for more air defence systems for Ukraine, saying Kyiv needed urgent help to protect its cities, troops and critical infrastructure from the “murderous onslaught” of Russian missiles.
In a letter to other Nato members, a copy of which was obtained by the Financial Times and confirmed by Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock and defence minister Boris Pistorius said they were launching a global initiative aimed at plugging the gaps in Ukraine’s air defences.
A “wide range of non-Nato partners” had also been approached, they added. Officials declined to identify those countries.

Dutch PM offers to buy Patriot systems from allies for Ukraine

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte offered on April 17 to buy Patriot air defense systems from more hesitant allies in order to send them to Ukraine, The Guardian reported.

kyivindependent.com

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte offered on April 17 to buy Patriot air defense systems from more hesitant allies in order to send them to Ukraine, The Guardian reported.

Russia's intensifying aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities continue to highlight the growing shortage of sufficient air defense systems.

"We know that many countries are sitting on large piles of Patriot systems, maybe not wanting to deliver it directly," Rutte said after arriving at the two-day summit of EU leaders in Brussels.

"We can buy it from them, we can deliver it to Ukraine, we have the money available. It's crucial."

 

[themeistersinger]

Zelenskyy confirms Ukrainian Armed Forces strike on Dzhankoi airfield

In his evening address, Ukraineâs President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed the strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on 17 April on the Russian airfield in Dzhankoy.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[themeistersinger]

161 Ukrainian children abducted by Russia found in Germany

National Police Chief Ivan Vyhivskyi has reported how many Ukrainian children abducted by Russia were found in Germany. Details

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Thread on FPVs: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1780531798432203096

In the nearest future I will publish a short thread about the biggest Russian advance near Tonenke, Avdiivka area, where they used a tank battalion in charge.

But right now I would like to say a couple of words about FPV drones and the dillusional reality they have created.
First of all, a short remark: I am totally supportive of FPV drones. With both of my hands.

But U need understand some thing: that’s not a panacea. Not at all.
U see only successful hits on Twitter or TG channels and they create a wrong point of thinking.

Unfortunately, we use so much FPV drones because of lack of ammo for mortars, ATGMs, artillery and even antitank mines.
IMHO, every army needs to has them. They are cheap and very effective, FIRST OF ALL, against the enemy logistics. That’s out of the question and they are really needed.
But here, in your TV war, you mostly see, especially right now, how the enemy columns charge so let’s talk a little bit about this.
1) they wouldn’t even be able to reach our positions if we had enough antitank mines. Same with artillery;

2) they wouldn’t be able to reach the city of Krasnogorivka, that’s the best example right now, if we had enough ATGMs.

But they did.
We have at that direction FPV drones. But they cannot change the fact that RUAF AFV are driving there like at home.
And finally , that the biggest charge near Tonenke was stopped with the help of ATGMs and artillery. And well trained and motivated infantry.

Not with the help of FPV drones. They just finished the job (mostly damaged and abandoned AFVs).
FPV drones are not the key. And not the panacea.

IMHO, the key is:

1) enough artillery shells;
2) well trained infantry;
3) mobility of your forces (AFV).

That’s at least.
I am sorry, I am just tired of what I see and when I have phone calls with possible recruits everyone asks me about FPV drones because they see the war via TG channels.

Ukraine’s Big Vulnerabilities: Ammunition, Soldiers and Air Defense

The shortages add up to a dire situation for Ukraine in the third year of the war, presenting commanders with near impossible choices on how to deploy limited resources.

www.nytimes.com

When the commander of Ukrainian forces in the east, Gen. Yurii Sodol, addressed lawmakers last week ahead of a vote aimed at improving the nation’s draft process, he painted a bleak portrait.
The widespread use of drones, he said, means that an armored vehicle is usually targeted and destroyed within 30 minutes when deployed to the zero line at the front. So it falls primarily to the infantry soldiers to hold their positions without much support against waves of Russian infantry attacks.
A squad of eight to 10 soldiers is typically tasked with defending 100 meters of land, General Sodol said, but Ukraine cannot always field full squads.
“If there are only two soldiers, they can defend 20 meters of the front,” he said. “Immediately, the question arises: Who will cover the remaining 80 meters?”
Parliament has recently passed laws aimed at replenishing its forces, but the process took months, and there are still many challenges with recruitment. In an effort to meet immediate needs, the Ukrainian command said it would rotate “thousands” of soldiers currently in the rear to combat positions. But that creates another problem: ensuring soldiers deployed to the front have proper training.
General Syrsky said that the quality of training was a “serious problem” and that they were working to have combat veterans take a more active role in the process to improve the situation.
But no amount of training can protect against the powerful thousand-pound glide bombs that Russia has been using to obliterate Ukrainian fortifications. That is why, Ukrainians say, they urgently need help from Western allies to help finally close the sky.

Grim read: https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/

Morale among troops is grim, ground down by relentless bombardment, a lack of advanced weapons, and losses on the battlefield. In cities hundreds of miles away from the front, the crowds of young men who lined up to join the army in the war’s early months have disappeared. Nowadays, eligible would-be recruits dodge the draft and spend their afternoons in nightclubs instead. Many have left the country altogether.

As I discovered while reporting from Ukraine over the past month, the picture that emerged from dozens of interviews with political leaders, military officers, and ordinary citizens was one of a country slipping towards disaster.

The mood in the senior ranks of the military is even darker than Kuleba’s.

Several senior officers talked to POLITICO only on the understanding they would not be named so they could talk freely. They painted a grim forecast of frontlines potentially collapsing this summer when Russia, with greater weight of numbers and a readiness to accept huge casualties, launches its expected offensive. Perhaps worse, they expressed private fears that Ukraine’s own resolve could be weakened, with morale in the armed forces undermined by a desperate shortage of supplies.

The early burst of patriotic fervor which saw draft centers swamped with volunteers has evaporated. An estimated 650,000 men of fighting age have fled their country, most by smuggling themselves across the border.

Two years ago, the trains heading out of Ukraine were almost exclusively carrying women, children and the elderly to seek refuge. This week, around a third of the passengers on one train carrying this correspondent out of the country were men of fighting age. Somehow they’d managed to get waiver papers to leave.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Military intelligence: Ukraine destroys missile launchers, radar stations at Russian military airfield in Crimea

Ukraine destroyed several units of military equipment in an attack on a Russian military airfield in Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea on April 17, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine destroyed several units of military equipment in an attack on a Russian military airfield in Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea on April 17, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported.

Ukraine's military intelligence on April 18 said that Ukrainian forces had destroyed four S-400 launchers, three radar stations, a command post for air defense operations, and air space surveillance equipment Fundament-M in the attack.

Germany arrests two for alleged plot to attack military bases on behalf of Russia

Prosecutors accuse suspects of working with Russian secret service in attempt to undermine support for Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

Two Russian nationals have been arrested in southern Germany suspected of plotting sabotage attacks on US military facilities, German prosecutors announced on Thursday.

Ukraine doesn’t want A-10s, but another country might, Air Force secretary says

Could Poland or Romania be eyeing the USAF’s old Warthogs?

www.defenseone.com

Despite previous calls from Ukraine for more attack aircraft, a top Pentagon official said the country isn’t interested in ex-U.S. Air Force A-10 Warthogs.

“Ukraine hasn't expressed much interest. I think they, rightfully, are concerned about their survivability,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing Wednesday.

Reuters: Ukraine says Russia's use of illegal tear gas on battlefield is increasing

Ukrainian military officials have previously said that Russia is deploying chemical weapons on the battlefield in violation of the 1925 Geneva Protocol. The usage of riot control gas in war is also banned under the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, which Russia is a signatory of.

kyivindependent.com

Russian forces have been increasing their usage of riot control gas banned on the battlefield, Colonel Serhii Pakhomov, the acting head of the Ukrainian military's atomic, biological, and chemical defense forces, told Reuters in an interview published on April 18.

Ukrainian military officials have previously said that Russia is deploying chemical weapons on the battlefield in violation of the 1925 Geneva Protocol. The usage of riot control gas in war is also banned under the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, which Russia is a signatory of.

Pakhmov told Reuters that Ukraine had recorded at least 900 uses of the banned riot control gas by Russian forces in the last six months, out of a total of 1,400 times since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The command of Ukraine's Support Forces said earlier in April that Russia's usage of prohibited chemical weapons has reached "systemic" levels.

Russia has been primarily using K-51, VOH, and RH-VO hand grenades loaded with CS, CN, and other gases, Pakhomov said.

"It's like pepper spray, it makes your eyes tear up. It's not lethal, but it disturbs and knocks you out. It makes it very difficult to carry out your duties once you've inhaled it," a soldier told Reuters after experiencing a gas attack earlier in the year.

Pakhomov said that around 500 Ukrainian soldiers have required medical attention after inhaling the gas, and at least one died as a result.

Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria Group of forces, said in March that Russia often employs riot control gas in an effort to try and clear trenches.

A Ukrainian military instructor told Reuters that its forces have been distributing gas masks and training soldiers on their proper usage.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1780958714209370374

Footage of Ukrainian forces launching six US-supplied MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles at Dzhankoi Airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 4 S-400 TELs, a command post, 3 radars, and a Fundament-M air surveillance system.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1780958448475426818

Another instance of drone on drone combat, with a Russian quadcopter attempting to crash Ukraine’s heavy drone at Robotyne and Verbove.

ERR in Ukraine: Frontline troops struggle with lack of ammunition

An ERR film crew visited the area near Robotyne, in the Zaporizhzhiaoblast, to hear from Ukrainian soldiers about the severe ammunition shortage they continue to suffer with in the face of the continued Russian onslaught.

news.err.ee

An ERR film crew visited the area near Robotyne, in the Zaporizhzhia
oblast, to hear from Ukrainian soldiers about the severe ammunition shortage they continue to suffer with in the face of the continued Russian onslaught.

This was the second time ERR's Anton Aleksejev and Kristjan Svirgsden had been to Robotyne; they went there last autumn, just after Ukrainian forces had liberated the village.

However, the situation on the ground now is too dangerous for them to directly enter the village; the locale can currently seen through the eyes of Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance.

One Ukrainian soldier, Serhii, told ERR: "In recent days, the situation has intensified. The Russians are actively attacking along the entire front line."

"After intercepting their communications, we learned that their mission is to conquer as much territory as possible before Putin is sworn back into office. They aim to occupy at least the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions and to take Robotyne too," he said

On the journey towards Robotyne, mortar operator Mykola told ERR about the quality of the average Russian soldier.

"When we take them prisoner, we ask: 'What are you doing here?' Their answer is they have mortgages and other debts to pay. So they came here to slaughter people in order to pay off their debts! What kind of people are they? We're not talking about human beings here," Mykola said.
The Ukrainians are still holding firm here despite a lack of ammunition.

Another fighter, "Jupiter," said: "We have very little ammo, about 10-15 shells per day. That is too little, so for that reason the enemy can afford to relax. We have three mortars, with 15 shells for each one — this is nothing."

"We fire a bit here, a bit there, then we wait again for some more ammo," "Jupiter" went on.

In recent weeks, Russian forces in Ukraine have become active across the entire front line.

The small town of Orihiv is the nearest rear echelon base to Robotyne, and guided projectiles have reduced it to near ruins.

 

[beer 30]

Ukraine’s Chances of Pushing Russia Out Look Increasingly Grim

I don't think there was ever a chance of it being otherwise. All that is happening now is the slow grinding down of a country and generations of their youth being lost for all the world to see. All the shells, tech & tactics aren't replacing bodies on the front lines.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/politics/cia-director-ukraine-russia-warning/index.html

CIA Director Bill Burns on Thursday warned that unless US sends more military support, Ukraine could “lose” the war against Russia by the end of the year.

His comments mark one of the starkest warnings to date from the Biden administration on the stakes in Ukraine as Congress debates whether to approve a long-delayed aid package to Kyiv.

“With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, I think the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024,” Burns said.

“Without supplemental assistance, the picture is a lot more dire,” he continued. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms of a political settlement.”

Scholz hopes NATO countries can deliver 6 more Patriots to Ukraine

There are six additional Patriot systems in NATO countries that could be delivered to Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on April 18 following a Special European Council summit in Brussels.

kyivindependent.com

There are six additional Patriot systems in NATO countries that could be delivered to Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on April 18 following a Special European Council summit in Brussels.

Poland arrests man suspected of aiding Russia in plot to kill Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Polish national accused of passing on information about key airport as part of plan to assassinate Ukrainian president

www.ft.com

A Polish citizen allegedly working with Russia’s military intelligence agency has been arrested on suspicion of aiding Moscow in a plot to assassinate Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to Ukrainian and Polish authorities.
Polish prosecutors identified the suspect as Paweł K and said that he had “expressed willingness to act on behalf of the Russian military intelligence and established contacts with citizens of the Russian Federation directly involved in the war in Ukraine.”
“His tasks included collecting and passing on information about the security of the Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport to the Russian military intelligence,” the Polish prosecutor’s office said on Thursday. “This was intended to assist in the planning of a potential assassination of a foreign state leader,” namely Zelenskyy, it added.
The Rzeszów airport in eastern Poland has become a major transport hub for Zelenskyy and other European leaders shuttling to and from Ukraine, as well as western military equipment transferred to Kyiv, as Ukrainian airspace remains closed for civilian air traffic following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine is digging in as the Kremlin steps up its offensive

Will it be enough?

www.economist.com

The construction of three new lines of fortifications in Sumy province is part of a billion-dollar Ukrainian scheme to shore up defences ahead of an expected Russian summer offensive. Diggers are working around the clock, as they are in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and Donetsk provinces, where the main push is expected. Construction follows a master plan of interlocking trenches, underground command-points, observation posts, and sleeping quarters that double as field hospitals. The general rule is that army brigades build the first line. Engineering forces, local authorities and occasionally local businesses take care of the rest. The outer line, about 30km back, is the sturdiest, built in relative calm with diggers and reinforced concrete. After a long delayed start, the first part of the project is due to be completed by the end of the month. The question is whether that will be soon enough.
Things are already critical in part of the Donetsk area. On April 14th Ukraine’s commanding general, Oleksandr Syrsky, said he was particularly concerned by a deterioration around the small town of Chasyv Yar. Russian troops had been ordered to seize it by Victory Day on May 9th, he said, and were amassing a huge strike force. There is frankly little to seize. Anton, a drone-company commander, describes the once-quiet town in apocalyptic terms. The earth is ash-grey; the air heavy with the smell of gunpowder and burning. Most buildings have been destroyed by artillery and guided bombs, he says, “dozens” of which land every day.
In Anton’s view, the Kremlin is repeating scorched-earth tactics it used with success to seize nearby Avdiivka in February. With Russian guns firing at least seven times more than Ukrainian ones, it was just “a matter of time” before the process would be completed once again. Ukraine has spent most of the war in serious artillery deficit, he says, but the shortages have been more pronounced since December. With Ukraine lacking the means to suppress infantry advances, the Russian army is now able to approach its positions with ease. “You’re always trying to preserve the ammunition you have, to defend against more serious advances. And so they keep creeping up, and you keep falling back.”
The vulnerabilities have many people worried. Some media reports, quoting unnamed Western officials, have even suggested Ukraine may be on the verge of military collapse. Those fears are exaggerated. Mr Kostenko, who oversees groups in the south and east, assesses that there is only a “minimal” risk of a major Russian breakthrough in the near future. Ukraine is addressing its manpower shortages, he says. Things already look better than they did in December, when Ukraine’s draft system essentially “broke down”. But the critical factor remains ammunition. As long as a minimum keeps arriving, which so far it is, Russia will find it difficult to achieve anything other than limited tactical success in small places like Chasyv Yar. “The front lines aren’t pleasant, but the Russians have real problems too.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Fear and Hoarding on Ukraine’s Eastern Front

Ammo shortages are costing lives and time.

foreignpolicy.com

But despite his jolliness, the situation that lay behind that locked door was far starker than any Western leader has been willing to admit on record. As I entered the ammunition warehouse, I was startled by how barren it was.
We were visiting a stretch of front in eastern Ukraine, where Foreign Policy was invited to embed with some of the troops tasked with holding the line against relentless Russian combined-arms offensives. For the safety of the men who spoke to us, names have been changed, and their operating locations are not being disclosed.
It was late March. Ukraine’s frozen steppe had thawed in the spring, and the sun was beating down on the front lines of Europe. It had been six weeks since the fall of Avdiivka, a town in the Donetsk region that had about 30,000 residents before the war, and while the Russian offensives had not let up, Ukraine’s defensive lines had stabilized since they withdrew from Avdiivka’s meat grinder.

In the ammunition warehouse, I stood with my translator, along with a Ukrainian military press officer, Valerii the front-line beekeeper, and Vladislav, the broad and graying commander of this brigade. He bears an uncanny resemblance to former British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab.
Around us were two dozen or so wooden boxes of artillery ammunition, holding a total of 30 NATO-standard 122 mm shells, obtained from Pakistani stocks, and 60 Soviet 122 mm rounds from what little remains of Ukraine’s dwindling stockpile.
The brigade that I was embedded with held a stretch of front 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) long, and when I visited this axis, they had nine functioning artillery pieces, each with a maximum range of 15 kilometers (about 9 miles). That effectively amounted to 10 rounds per howitzer for every 2 kilometers of front line, with no resupplies expected soon.

Startled by the numbers, I asked Vladislav how the Ukrainian soldiers had managed to stabilize the front after Avdiivka, given that they had such little ammunition to work with.
“Because of the lack of shells, we have to pay with lives,” he said, making it clear that the price paid for Western inaction on artillery is being paid for in Ukrainian blood.
I asked what the ratio of fire between them and the Russians currently was, and Vladislav delivered another grim assessment.
“On the good days, between 10- and 20-to-1” he said, “and on the bad days, it almost feels like they have an unlimited supply.”
This part of the front has not seen as many Russian offensives as other parts of the eastern forward line, but the ammunition shortages are impacting the entirety of Ukraine’s war effort.

Ukraine has been hungry for shells for months. According to Vladislav, his brigade began to run low on shells in February 2023, and the shortage has been getting progressively worse since then. He said that Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, generally considered a failure, began even though its troops lacked the artillery firepower required to sustain offensive operations.
They have not received a resupply in months, and his brigade has been forced to ration shells, firing only when absolutely necessary to hold their positions. The only reason that Vladislav’s troops have not been forced into further retreat, he told me, has been solely the “professionalism and sacrifice of Ukrainian men.”
“Without the ammunition, we have to rely on our reserves,” he said, adding that this reality has come with “heavy cost in life.”
Ukrainians are still the more motivated troops, he told me, as they are the ones defending their land. But the Russians have greatly improved their tactics since their early failures in the war.
“They build defenses, then they advance, then they build defenses, then they advance again,” Vladislav said.
In the meantime, Ukrainians have been much slower to fortify their positions, providing further openings for Russian gains while ammunition supply remains critical.
But despite his harsh words about the offensive, Vladislav had no harsh words for his superiors on this salient, and he praised new commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskyi’s organized retreat from Avdiivka as the “correct decision.”
But based on Kyiv’s talk about the potential for a new counteroffensive later this year, an offensive seems unlikely. “Offensive?” Vladislav asked. “We cannot even hold our current positions.”
Without a significant increase in their ammunition supplies, Vladislav told me that his men will be forced to abandon this line and retreat farther into Ukrainian territory. He said that they need at least a 3-to-1 shell advantage over the enemy to be able to adequately counter them.

Across an entire front line, that is far more ammunition than even the Czech and Estonian initiatives can provide. According to former Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine needs at least 356,400 shells a month to remain operational. The Czech supply would provide just three months of this.
I asked Vladislav if there was anything besides shells that he needed, and he stressed that the issue was not just about ammunition, but also equipment.
“I need new artillery,” he said. With most of their howitzers built in the 1980s, his troops’ equipment is under increasing strain and in need of constant maintenance. But Vladislav insisted that his men do not need additional training to use newer, NATO-standard armored vehicles.
“If I drive an old Lada, it’s easy for me to then drive a Mercedes,” he said with a smile.
It is not, at least, all bad news for this particular unit, though.
“We have 100 percent of our personnel needs met,” said Vladislav. “I have too many men and not enough artillery pieces for them.” He told me that he has enough spare crew to man three more cannons, but he lacks the cannons to man.
The men also remained in high spirits. Those that I spoke to said that their morale and will to fight was still strong, but the situation had clearly been taking its toll on them.
Oleh, the driver of his unit’s worse-for-wear looking 2S1 Gvozdika—a Soviet-made, self-propelled Howitzer—told me that the recent weeks had been unbearably tense, but that he and the unit remained strong. “If we were provided with shells, we would be prepared for offensives, but we don’t have them,” he said. “The only thing we are thinking about is saving shells.”
“Our main target is enemy infantry,” said Serhii, another soldier. Without ammunition, the Ukrainian soldiers no longer have any ability to operate counter-battery fire in this part of the front line, leaving their positions totally at the mercy of Russian artillery. “We shell their infantry only to prevent them from advancing—we have no shells for anything else,” he added.
The worst thing, they told me, aside from Russian shelling and drone attacks, was listening to their comrades being killed over the radio. “We listen to their suffering, and we feel useless,” said Oleh, a tank driver.

I visited several locations in late March, and all the men who spoke to me relayed similar stories as the situation on Ukraine’s vast front line with an increasingly emboldened Russia continued to deteriorate.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1781268863872593955

Looks like the Ukrainian missile strike on Luhansk last weekend did hit a major Russian command and control center. Russian media says the fatalities included Colonel Kropotov, commander of the 59th Command and Control Brigade, the main C&C unit of the Russian Group Center.

Air Force: Ukraine downs Russian Tu-22M3 bomber for first time

Ukrainian anti-aircraft units shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber for the first time, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on April 19.

kyivindependent.com

Ukrainian anti-aircraft units shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber for the first time, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on April 19.

The Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Russia's Stavropol Krai on the morning of April 19, just after Russia launched an attack on Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

According to Stavropol Krai Governor Vladimir Vladimirov, the Russian plane crashed in the region's Krasnogvardeysky District. Vladimirov claimed two pilots ejected from the aircraft. One pilot was allegedly killed and another crew member is missing.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed the aircraft crashed due to a "technical malfunction" while returning to its base airfield after completing a combat mission, according to Russian state-controlled media.

The Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have shot down the aircraft:

"For the first time, the anti-aircraft missile units of the (Ukrainian) Air Force, in cooperation with Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, destroyed a Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber – the carrier of Kh-22 cruise missiles, which the Russian terrorists use to attack peaceful Ukrainian cities," Oleshchuk said.

According to Ukraine's military intelligence, the Russian aircraft was shot down around 300 kilometers from Ukraine with the "same means that were previously used to shoot the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft."

A source from the military intelligence told the Kyiv Independent that the plane had been shot down by a Soviet-era S-200 anti-air system. The system dates back to the 1960s and has been previously described as a largely obsolete weapon.

Video of apparently the plane falling: https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1781180098894610506

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1781226428031234208

Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Stavropol Krai, southern Russia, on Friday.

At least one of the crew-members perished, two survived, according to available information.

The aircraft was returning to the Mozdok Air Base after launching missiles at Ukraine today's morning.

Interestingly, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR MO) claimed that the Tu-22M3 was shot down by the Ukrainians over 300km from Ukraine with "the same means that were previously used to shot down the Russian A-50 [AEW&C aircraft].

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1781182577925124138

A Russian Air Force Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Stavropol Krai. Russian officials say the crew ejected. Baza says two of the four crew members have been hospitalized, and they are searching for three other two. They were reportedly returning from a combat mission, which means this was likely the Tu-22M3 that launched the Kh-22 missile at Ukraine this morning. 2/

Also possible Russian air defenses mistakenly shot it down.

Thread with some imagery on the strike in Dzhankoy: https://twitter.com/KOvsianyi/status/1781301956385866041

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-bashneft-protects-refineries-with-anti-drone-nets-ria-says-2024-04-19/

Russian oil producer Bashneft has installed anti-drone nets to protect key facilities at its refineries from potential Ukrainian attack, the head of the republic of Bashkortostan where the company is based was quoted as saying on Friday.

 

[Chadstroma]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1781268863872593955

Looks like the Ukrainian missile strike on Luhansk last weekend did hit a major Russian command and control center. Russian media says the fatalities included Colonel Kropotov, commander of the 59th Command and Control Brigade, the main C&C unit of the Russian Group Center.

Air Force: Ukraine downs Russian Tu-22M3 bomber for first time

Ukrainian anti-aircraft units shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber for the first time, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on April 19.

kyivindependent.com

Ukrainian anti-aircraft units shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber for the first time, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on April 19.

The Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Russia's Stavropol Krai on the morning of April 19, just after Russia launched an attack on Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

According to Stavropol Krai Governor Vladimir Vladimirov, the Russian plane crashed in the region's Krasnogvardeysky District. Vladimirov claimed two pilots ejected from the aircraft. One pilot was allegedly killed and another crew member is missing.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed the aircraft crashed due to a "technical malfunction" while returning to its base airfield after completing a combat mission, according to Russian state-controlled media.

The Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have shot down the aircraft:

"For the first time, the anti-aircraft missile units of the (Ukrainian) Air Force, in cooperation with Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, destroyed a Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber – the carrier of Kh-22 cruise missiles, which the Russian terrorists use to attack peaceful Ukrainian cities," Oleshchuk said.

According to Ukraine's military intelligence, the Russian aircraft was shot down around 300 kilometers from Ukraine with the "same means that were previously used to shoot the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft."

A source from the military intelligence told the Kyiv Independent that the plane had been shot down by a Soviet-era S-200 anti-air system. The system dates back to the 1960s and has been previously described as a largely obsolete weapon.

Video of apparently the plane falling: https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1781180098894610506

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1781226428031234208

Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Stavropol Krai, southern Russia, on Friday.

At least one of the crew-members perished, two survived, according to available information.

The aircraft was returning to the Mozdok Air Base after launching missiles at Ukraine today's morning.

Interestingly, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR MO) claimed that the Tu-22M3 was shot down by the Ukrainians over 300km from Ukraine with "the same means that were previously used to shot down the Russian A-50 [AEW&C aircraft].

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1781182577925124138

A Russian Air Force Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Stavropol Krai. Russian officials say the crew ejected. Baza says two of the four crew members have been hospitalized, and they are searching for three other two. They were reportedly returning from a combat mission, which means this was likely the Tu-22M3 that launched the Kh-22 missile at Ukraine this morning. 2/

Also possible Russian air defenses mistakenly shot it down.

Thread with some imagery on the strike in Dzhankoy: https://twitter.com/KOvsianyi/status/1781301956385866041

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-bashneft-protects-refineries-with-anti-drone-nets-ria-says-2024-04-19/

Russian oil producer Bashneft has installed anti-drone nets to protect key facilities at its refineries from potential Ukrainian attack, the head of the republic of Bashkortostan where the company is based was quoted as saying on Friday.

How do you know a Russian is lying? Their lips are moving.

No freaking plane crashes like that from a "technical malfunction".

 

[The Z Machine]

I keep reading about the Czech and Polish push to secure artillery ammo, but then I also read that the Ukrainians have none left. What's up? Is the Czech plan in motion and it's taking time to get ammo to the front lines or something?