*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blasts-reported-several-ukrainian-regions-amid-russian-missile-attack-2024-03-29/

Massive Russian missile and drone attacks hit thermal and hydro power plants in central and western Ukraine overnight, officials said on Friday, in the latest barrage targeting the country's already damaged power infrastructure.
Kaniv hydropower plant was among the targets along with Dnister plant, which is located on the Dnister River, flowing through neighbouring Moldova, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.

A senior official at the Centrenergo generating company reported that the 10-unit Zmiivska thermal plant in northeastern Kharkiv region, an area subject to many Russian attacks, had been destroyed in a big wave of strikes on March 22.
"The consequences were destructive, the station is destroyed," Andriy Hota, chairman of the company's supervisory board told Interfax Ukraine news agency.
"There were many direct hits. Everything we repaired in preparation for the winter was destroyed."
The wave of attacks on March 22 was described by Kyiv officials as the most intense since the February 2022 invasion.
Regional officials said Russian forces had also attacked infrastructure overnight into Friday in the Kamianske district near the city of Dnipro. At least one person was wounded.
Ukrainian energy minister German Galushchenko said power facilities in the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava and Cherkasy had similarly come under attack.
"Electricity generation facilities were targeted by drones and missiles," Gelushchenko said on Facebook.

Zelenskyy fires senior aide in continuing reshuffle

Ukrainian president also dismisses three advisers and two other officials.

www.politico.eu

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed a longtime aide and several advisers on Saturday in a continuing reshuffle of the top ranks in Kyiv.

Zelenskyy dismissed top aide Serhiy Shefir from his post of first assistant, where he had served since 2019, according to a brief statement issued on Saturday. The Ukrainian president also let go three advisers, as well as two presidential representatives overseeing volunteer activities and soldiers’ rights, according to media reports.

No explanation was given for the latest changes in a wide-reaching personnel shakeup over recent months. Saturday’s moves follow the dismissal on Tuesday of Oleksii Danilov, who served as secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. Danilov is being replaced by Oleksandr Lytvynenko, head of Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service.

Thread: https://twitter.com/vmorkevicius/status/1773802556998697160

The declaration by the World Russian People's Council (led by Patriarch Kirill of Moscow) that #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine is a "Holy War" is disturbing and deserves our attention. /1
The declaration is an order "addressed to the legislative and executive authorities of Russia."

An interesting note: the World Russian People's Council refers to Russian in ethnic terms, not the adjective used for the (multi-ethnic) Russian state. /2
The very first section of the declaration describes Russia's "Special Military Operation" as a "Holy War" (Священной войной). /3
This claim is theologically problematic, as in Orthodox moral theology, there is no justification for war as a positive project (although it may at times be necessary). War cannot be sacred or holy. /4
The text of the declaration specifies broadly the aims of this "Holy War": "Russia and its people, defending the single spiritual space of Holy Rus'... protecting the world from the onslaught of globalism and the victory of the West, which has fallen into Satanism." /5
This framing of the West as "Satanic" is not new-- it's been part of #Putin's rhetoric against #Ukraine from the beginning.

When rhetoric dehumanizes the other as "evil," as nonhuman "animals), war crimes follow. /6
The declaration lists specific war aims. These do not leave room for an Ukraine with any kind of political sovereignty at all.

These are not the sort of war aims that could serve as a reasonable platform for a negotiated peace. /7
The text also implies a foreign policy perspective that could lead to future wars of conquest, claiming that the borders of the Russian Federation do not align with the entirety of the Russian world, and that the "restoration of the unity of the Russian people" is essential. /8
This expansionist world view is made quite clear in the section on "Foreign Policy."

(The idea of the "trinity" of the Russian people is ahistorical nonsense, by the way.)

/9
And if you're wondering if it's accidental that there's overlap between Putin's agenda and the rhetoric and claims of some groups on the American and European right: you can stop now.

The declaration courts "foreigners who defend traditional values." /10

https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1773945014860574985

1/4
Bloomberg: "Russia’s central bank said it has no better options than the Chinese yuan for its reserves after two years of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine and the subsequent seizure of its international assets. As of March 22, Russia’s...
2/4
international reserves stood at $590.1 billion, having decreased by about $40 billion over two years of the war, according to data from the central bank."

The numbers aren't huge, but they nonetheless pose an interesting dilemma for Beijing.
3/4
Either Russian capital inflows into China must be balanced by a contraction in China's trade surplus, driven either by a stronger RMB or by domestic wealth effects, or, if Beijing wants to avoid that, it must result in more acquisition of foreign reserves or shadow reserves.
4/4
In the latter case, this mostly means that the PBoC will directly or indirectly acquire USD, in which case the Russian central bank is transferring a part of what would have been USD reserve acquisition to China. Less Russian exposure to USD means more Chinese exposure.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/export-watchdog-warns-about-counterparties-sending-drone-missile-components-to-russia-d3df4f02

The U.S. Commerce Department is continuing to dial up its warnings about violating rules against the export of sensitive technologies to foreign adversaries amid findings that U.S. components have found their way to Russia’s military and to battlefields in Ukraine.

The Commerce Department sent letters to more than 20 companies last year, and it recently went a step further by providing them with a list of more than 600 foreign parties that appear to have continued to sell restricted parts to Russia, Axelrod said in a speech in Washington on Thursday.

Czech-led artillery initiative still lacks funds, says Estonian defense minister

The Czech-led initiative to secure critically-needed artillery shells for Ukraine’s armed forces still lacks the funds needed to purchase them, Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said on March 29.

www.yahoo.com

The Czech-led initiative to secure critically-needed artillery shells for Ukraine’s armed forces still lacks the funds needed to purchase them, Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said on March 29.

Czech President Petr Pavel said in February that Czechia had identified 500,000 155 mm shells and 300,000 122 mm shells outside of Europe that could be bought and sent to Ukraine after the necessary funds were allocated.

On March 28, the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reported the initiative had concluded contracts for 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine, though Pevkur’s comments now throw this into doubt.

“If we are talking about a million projectiles, it is about three billion euros,” he said. “There are different calibers, smaller ones are a little cheaper. It would be great if everything could be done.

“At the moment, we can say that money is lacking more than projectiles.”

Pevkur also highlighted further difficulties in the process, saying that as well as locating the shells themselves, they all need to be checked to ensure they are in proper working condition.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1774049069322682668

Russian forces have maintained a gradual advance west of Avdiivka. In late March 2024 they almost certainly took control of two villages – Tonenke and Orlivka – and are continuing to contest others in the area. Russia has continued attacks along several other points on the frontline but has made little progress in recent weeks.
Russia maintains a significant quantitative advantage in the conflict, overmatching Ukraine in munitions and equipment numbers. It is likely recruiting approximately 30,000 additional personnel a month and can highly likely continue to absorb losses and continue attacks aimed at wearing down Ukrainian forces.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1774062457746604463

Fully unmanned drone combat in Donetsk Oblast.

Seen here, Ukrainian FPV munitions from the 47th Mechanized Brigade destroy a pair of Russian unmanned ground vehicles that attempted to push into Berdychi.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1774057932746891277

More drone vs. drone aerial combat in Ukraine as such tactics are becoming common across the front - in this video, Russian drone operators are causing Ukrainian quadcopters to crash near Kupyansk.

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin friend predicts nuclear strike "most likely" coming

Viktor Medvedchuk said, "If the collective West continues to assert its right to global dominance, Ukraine's human capital will not be enough in any case."

www.newsweek.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukrainian Women Seek an Equal Right to Fight

Ukraine faces a shortage of military personnel, yet half the population is excluded from conscription. Women warriors say this should change.

cepa.org

 

[themeistersinger]

What we know about hypersonic Zircon missiles – Russia's latest threat

While Russian missile strikes on Kyiv have become horrifyingly routine during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the attack that occurred on March 25 was a rare event. Air raid sirens that normally give people more than enough time to grab a coat and get to the nearest shelter before missiles

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Funding shortage persists for Czech initiative on ammunition purchase for Ukraine â Estonian Defence Ministry

Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said there are places where ammunition for Ukraine can be bought, but the question is whether there is money for it

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Not good: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1774161256812838952

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1774127344774480326

80% of DTEK's energy capacity damaged, destroyed after Russian March attacks.

In March, Russian attacks damaged or completely destroyed 80% of the thermal generating capacity of Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, the company's executive director said on March 30.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1774151768458326104

Russian Telegram channels are showing wheeled and tracked UGVs in Russian military service. Some appear to be DIY developments. Small size and scale points to ISR, logistics, evac and light combat roles.

Interesting thread on a long range Ukrainian drone: https://twitter.com/DanielR33187703/status/1774107618409402723

Thread: https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1774187138319598009

The increasing use of drone v drone warfare in #Ukraine has been a trend long in development. Earlier, we have seen aerial drones take out other aerial drones, as well as recover downed enemy drones. 1/15
2/ With the increasing deployment of uncrewed ground combat vehicles, there will be more and UAV v UGV combat similar to that in the video as well as UGV v UGV. At this point in their development, however, UGV remain slow and vulnerable to attack by humans and UAV.
3/ But, the battlefield adaptation cycle will slowly change this. Not only will individual UGV increasingly have lower visual and electronic signatures, they will be used in larger numbers. The pace of change in the relevant technologies makes this almost inevitable.
4/ For Russia, the use of large numbers of UGV might complement their ‘meat tactics’ with disposable troops. As @sambendett has reported on recently, Russia is deploying UGV in greater numbers.
5/ For Ukraine, UGV possibly offers part of a solution to their personnel shortages. UGV are already being used for several different mission sets. It is not a full solution for shortage of people however. Some form of mobilization will still be necessary.
6/ There is every reason to believe me might see greater autonomous collaboration between UAV and UGV. I can imagine both UGV and UAVs being used as ‘motherships’ for the other in different battlefield mission sets.
7/ This reinforces the need for rapid changes to ground force tactics & doctrine. The current prevalence of the defence over offence will only be sustained until we develop new era combined arms, air-land tactics that use human-machine teaming as the foundation, not an add-on.
8/ Deeper institutional changes will also be needed. All training for military personnel is currently focused on ‘using’ technology. Training culture needs to embrace ‘partnering with’ technology. This is a big shift for orgs that have been human-centric for 1000s of years.
9/ And it will drive changes in military planning, logistics, procurement and leadership models. All of this is necessary to rebuild offensive capacity, which in turn, is a key part of conventional deterrent frameworks.
10/ While this imperative is most urgent for Ukraine right now, it is also driving change (at different speeds) in other military institutions. The pace of change in the technology involved means however that militaries will need more rapid learning and adaptation approaches.
11/ This includes better tactical learning and adaptation, as well as the strategic adaptation necessary to change institutions, training & education, force design and procurement.
12/ LtGen (retired) Clint Hinote and I recently published a report on this topic, which you can read here. https://scsp.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SCSP-Drone-Paper-Hinote-Ryan.pdf

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-power-firm-hit-by-russian-attacks-warns-repairs-could-take-18-months-2024-03-30/

The head of Ukraine's largest private energy firm, DTEK, said on Saturday that five of its six plants had been damaged or destroyed with 80% of its generating capacity lost after two weeks of Russian attacks and that repairs could take up to 18 months.

DTEK, which meets about a quarter of the country's needs, has seen its thermal power stations and other facilities repeatedly hit by Russian missiles, drones and artillery in more than two years of war.
DTEK Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk said in remarks shown on national television that waves of attacks on March 22 and March 29 had hit thermal and hydro production "in almost all regions" and that distribution facilities were destroyed.
"To be specific, five out of six of our stations were severely damaged, some units were destroyed, some were damaged by 50% or more," he said.
"This applies to both the western regions and the central regions, and both the equipment necessary for the production of electricity and for transmission from the station to the grid were damaged," he said.
His company suffered losses amounting to $300 million for equipment alone, he said, while labour costs would require as much as half as much again. "We have determined that 80% of the available generating capacity is not working now," he added.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-send-old-armoured-vehicles-new-missiles-ukraine-2024-03-31/

France will deliver hundreds of old armoured vehicles and new surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine in its war against Russia, French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Sunday.
In an interview with La Tribune Dimanche, Lecornu said that President Emmanuel Macron, following talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, had asked him to prepare a new aid package, which will include old but still functional French equipment.

He said France was looking at providing hundreds of VAB (Véhicule de l'Avant Blindé) front-line troop carriers in 2024 and early 2025.
France's army is gradually replacing its thousands of VABs, which first went into operation in the late 1970s, with a new multi-role troop carrier.
Lecornu added that France was also preparing to release a new batch of Aster 30 surface-to-air missiles for the SAMP/T system provided to Kyiv.
The Aster 30 can intercept warplanes, drones and cruise missiles within a range of 120 km.
"Ukraine has an urgent need for better ground-air defence ... Russia is intensifying its strikes, in particular on civilians and civil infrastructure," he said.
Lecornu said he had asked government defence procurement agency DGA (Direction Generale de l'Armement) to make proposals to accelerate production of Aster missiles, manufactured by European group MBDA.
France is also speeding up the development of remotely operated ammunition for delivery to Ukraine as early as this summer, Lecornu said.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1774354951398957159

Recent imagery analysis has identified four barges positioned at the entrance to the Black Sea Fleet facility of Novorossiysk Sea Port. This is an effort to enhance the defences of the port against attacks from Ukrainian Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USVs).
Due to an increased risk of Ukrainian strikes in their traditional homeport of Sevastopol, Novorossiysk port now serves a crucial role in sheltering the Black Sea Fleet's most valuable assets.
The former Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Viktor Sokolov was replaced following Ukrainian successes in the use of USVs against Russian targets both at sea and in port. His replacement, Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk, has likely sought to improve the survival chances of Russian vessels by adopting further preventative and defensive measures, including narrowing the entrance gap to port facilities.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774386799957164496

During the night of March 31, air defense forces shot down 9 out of 14 cruise missiles and 9 out of 11 Shahed attack drones that the Russian military used to attack Ukraine, reported Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk.

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1774446682307957140

This is the regular spring conscription, the first of two intakes of conscripts the Russians do per year (the second is the fall conscription) and is not related to the war.

There has been no new round of mobilization akin to late 2022 yet, despite much talk and many rumors.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1774809122061393928

Russia’s recent air strikes on Kharkiv have knocked out “almost all” of the city’s energy infrastructure, says Mayor Ihor Terekhov.

Barrage of Russian attacks aims to cut Ukraine's lights

Russia has launched a wave of additional strikes across the country targeting the energy supply.

www.bbc.com

In Kharkiv to the north, the damage is more serious.

Kharkiv's mayor, Igor Terekhov, has said it will take weeks to restore full supply and that is if Russia's armed forces don't strike the same targets again.

The initial attack on the city's energy supply even knocked out the air raid siren. There is now a screeching noise that comes straight to people's mobile phones instead.

There can be hours of those missile warnings in the city each day - during one on Saturday night, the blast wave from a strike blew out dozens of windows in a block of flats.

But the Russians have increasingly been aiming at the power grid.

"The damage is very serious," Mr Terekhov told the BBC.

"We need time to repair it," he added, suggesting that meant a couple more months at least.

Russia's defence ministry confirms that its latest strikes have been focused on Ukraine's power supply. It says the aim is to disrupt the work of the country's defence industry and claims that "all aims of the strike were achieved".

The ministry has a long history of disinformation.

But the Kharkiv mayor did tell the BBC that the city's manufacturing sector, which requires significant power, has been affected by the blackouts. There are no further details.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774816043963138389

Russian administration official Valery Chaika was killed in a car bombing in the temporarily occupied Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast, reported the Russian propaganda agencies TASS and RIA Novosti with reference to the occupation authorities.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1774627007445237775

The Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState reported that Russia advanced about half a kilometer east of Chasiv Yar.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Why Russia’s glide bomb assault is changing the war in Ukraine

Powerful Soviet-era weapons modified with fins and sat-navs are giving Putin’s men aerial supremacy because they are so difficult to shoot down

www.thetimes.co.uk

Without western fighter jets to provide the air cover they need, Ukrainian soldiers have little to protect them besides prayer.
“It’s just a matter of luck,” said Drongo, a 28-year old infantryman, using his nom de guerre in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “There is no defence.”

Recently, Drongo was driving an unarmoured car as fast as possible down a makeshift track in Serebryansky forest on a mission to recover the stranded corpses of Ukrainians who had died a few days previously. A glide bomb exploded nearby. In an instant pine trees were shredded to matchsticks and his 4×4 was engulfed by a shrapnel tornado.
A soldier of ten years’ Donbas experience, Drongo said the shell shock was unlike anything he had experienced.
“You can feel your organs shaking around inside you,” said the infantryman, serving in the 1st Presidential Storm Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine. “I started bleeding from my ears and nose. Vomiting. I was really struggling to speak for two days from the concussion. I kept throwing cold water on myself to come round.”

But by modifying Soviet-era bombs with fins that allow them to “glide” to their target and adding basic satellite navigation systems, Russia is gaining aerial control over the towns and villages of the Donbas region.
KAB and FAB glide bombs can be released 40 miles behind the Russian front lines, tumbling to earth in a matter of minutes, making them difficult for Ukrainian air defences — designed to seek a recognisable trajectory — to shoot down.
Glide bombs vary in size from a FAB-250, weighing 250kg, to the largest bomb, the FAB-1500, weighing 1.5 tonnes, almost half of which is made up of explosives. Ominously, Russia is now producing a FAB-3000, weighing three tonnes, and will begin manufacture of a “Drill” cluster munition-carrying glide bomb later this year.
Russian engineers could even add a jet engine and fuel tank to glide bombs, according to Kremlin-linked military bloggers, increasing their range to 55 miles and transforming them into a basic cruise missile similar to the V1s used by the Nazis in the Second World War.
At the height of the fighting in Avdiivka, the Russian air force dropped as many bombs per day as it did on Mariupol in 2022, a city ten times the size. In total, Russia has lobbed 3,500 glide bombs at Ukrainian positions since the beginning of the year — 16 times the amount as during the same period last year.

“The Russians have a very large stockpile of iron bombs to convert with glide kits,” said Dr Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. “So the constraint is not munitions but rather aircraft and the size of salvo they can generate.”
The reward for Russia of pummelling the front lines may increasingly be worth the risk of losing an occasional aircraft. Watling said the difference between dropping the bombs at a distance of 45 miles compared with 25 miles was the difference between aiming for an entire village and striking a specific Ukrainian position.
Errant bombs, like the one that fell on Dovha Balka, will become rarer the closer the Russian jets fly. “As Ukrainian air defences start to run short of interceptors the Russian Aerospace Forces will be able to push closer to the front line and their accuracy and therefore impact on the fighting will increase,” Watling warned.

Ukraine is building layers of fortifications behind its front lines in preparation for further retreats after Avdiivka and is trying to marshall its limited resources to deliver a counterpunch to the recent setbacks.
Oleksii Tarasenko, deputy commander of the 5th Assault Brigade, said the situation was precarious but stable. The 27-year-old is responsible for the lives of 750 Ukrainian men holding the line in Chasiv Yar, the last town before Bakhmut, which was captured by Russia last year.
Earlier this month, Tarasenko was sheltering underground when a glide bomb exploded 100m away, ripping the basement’s door off its hinges. “It’s tough psychologically for us,” Tarasenko said. “The power of these explosions makes people afraid. We’re professionals, so we try to get on with the job. We tell ourselves there’s no point paying attention to the bombs because there’s nothing we can do.”
Tarasenko said glide bombs began falling on Chasiv Yar at the beginning of the year. Once a clay-mining town, Chasiv Yar is now shaken by two to three explosions a day, a fraction of the bombs that fell on Avdiivka. He said troops were more afraid of being pursued by Russian FPV drones and the bombs only inflicted 1-2 per cent of casualties. “They’re not accurate. I haven’t seen them score a direct hit on an HQ or a supply line,” he said.
Handsome and assured, the commander is aware, however, that without western F-16 fighter jets — whose air-to-air missiles could push the Russian planes back — an unrelenting barrage of more accurate glide bombs could fall on Chasiv Yar at any moment, overwhelming the Ukrainian resistance.
All along the front line, similar towns to Chasiv Yar wonder whether they will be next following the flattening of Avdiivka. The prospect of glide bombs bullying the Ukrainians backwards is very real. Kyiv does not expect to receive its first F-16s until the end of the year.
“If we had F-16s patrolling the skies now, there is no way this would happen,” Tarasenko said.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1774825067047776320

ukrainians’ trust in zelensky:

pre-war: 37%
may 2022 (peak): 90%
now: 60%

kyiv intl institute of sociology

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774880362088349861

Ukraine produces unmanned aerial vehicles that can cover over 1,000 kilometers, announced Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov in an interview with Welt.

When asked by a journalist about attacks on oil refineries and other targets in Russia and the use of drones for this purpose, the official replied that "the military can better comment on the details of these operations."

However, he noted that Ukraine has increased the production of long-range drones tenfold compared to last year.

"Most drones used have a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers. But now there are models that can fly over 1,000 kilometers," the minister said.

In addition, Fedorov believes that the first prototypes of artificial intelligence drones could appear on the battlefield by the end of 2024. However, not in large numbers.

Authorities: Russia uses 5 Zircon hypersonic missiles against Kyiv in 2024

Russia has launched against Kyiv five 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile within the last three months, Kyiv City Military Administration reported on April 1.

kyivindependent.com

Russia has launched five 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles against Kyiv within the first three months of the year, the city's military administration reported on April 1.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/crypto-fuelsrussian-shadow-trade-for-weapons-parts-1bfdc1a1?mod=hp_listb_pos2

For Vladimir Putin’s war machine, Tether has become indispensable. It helps Russian companies weave around Western sanctions and procure so-called dual-use goods that go into drones and other high-tech equipment. Importers working with such goods make transfers in rubles into Russian bank accounts operated by middlemen who convert the rubles into tether and pay out local currency to their foreign suppliers in places like China and the Middle East.
The U.S. Treasury Department has pressed Congress to pass legislation that would grant it the ability to block transactions in U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins like tether. Last week, the department blacklisted a Moscow company that had partnered with a sanctioned Russian bank to provide tether-based payments.
“Russia is increasingly turning to alternative payment mechanisms to circumvent U.S. sanctions and continue to fund its war against Ukraine,” Brian Nelson, Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a statement.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine attacks Shahed drone factory, oil refinery deep inside Russia

Kyiv carried out the Tatarstan drone strike, according to local media.

www.politico.eu

A drone-making facility deep inside Russian territory was bombarded on Tuesday morning, according to local officials.

Drones attacked production facilities in Yelabuga and Nizhnekamsk in Russia's Tatarstan republic, some 1,500 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, local governor Rustam Minnikhanov said in a statement.

“In Yelabuga, unfortunately, there are victims as a result of the destruction of the premises. They are provided with all necessary medical aid,” Minnikhanov said, revealing no additional details.

Ukrainian media, citing sources in Kyiv's HUR military intelligence agency, reported that Ukraine attacked a Shahed-type drone production factory in Yelabuga.

HUR employees, granted anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly, told POLITICO that they “can neither confirm nor deny that Ukrainian drones attacked a drone production factory and an oil refinery deep in Russian territory.”

While the HUR was behind the attack on Yelabuga, the strike on the oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk was a joint operation of HUR and Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) a Ukrainian law enforcement official familiar with the matter who was granted anonymity to speak freely told POLITICO.

A Ukrainian long-range drone hit the primary oil processing facility at the Nizhnekamsk refinery, after which a fire broke out there. It is one of Russia's largest refineries.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1775163801072967989

The long-range drone used in Tuesday’s attack was made by Ukraine’s military intelligence engineers, a person familiar with the matter told Financial Times. “Ukraine continues to destroy military forces on the territory of the aggressor state using its own means,” they said.

https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1775170388055502935

Admiral Alexander Moiseyev was officially appointed as the new Commander-in-Chief of Russia’s navy on Tuesday.

Ukraine’s AI-enabled drones are trying to disrupt Russia’s energy industry. So far, it’s working

These daring Ukrainian strikes are hitting Russia’s massive oil and gas industry, which despite Western import bans and price caps has remained the biggest source of revenue for Moscow’s war economy.

The attacks have been made possible by the use of drones with longer ranges and more advanced capabilities, some of which have even begun to integrate a basic form of artificial intelligence to help them navigate and avoid being jammed, a source close to Ukraine’s drone program told CNN.

“Accuracy under jamming is enabled through the use of artificial intelligence. Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data,” the source close to the drone program explained. “The flights are determined in advance with our allies, and the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision.”

That precision is made possible by the drone’s sensors.

“They have this thing called ‘machine vision,’ which is a form of AI. Basically you take a model and you have it on a chip and you train this model to identify geography and the target it is navigating to,” said Noah Sylvia, a research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based think tank. “When it is finally deployed, it is able to identify where it is.”

“It does not require any communication (with satellites), it is completely autonomous,” Sylvia added.
Chris Lincoln-Jones, a former British military officer and an expert in drone warfare and artificial intelligence, said the level of “intelligence” was still very low.

“This level of autonomy had not yet been seen in drones before, but we are still in the early stages of potential of this technology,” he told CNN.

CNN reached out to Ukrainian Defense Intelligence and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) but neither wanted to comment on the use of AI technology.

Several experts contacted by CNN said that rather than hitting fuel storage facilities, for example, Ukraine was hitting distillation units, where crude oil is processed and turned into fuel or other derivatives.

“From what we’ve seen, some of it is they’re striking targets that need a lot of Western technology and Russia has a much more difficult time procuring this technology,” Sylvia said.

This approach gives Kyiv more bang for its buck, hurting more than just striking the refineries at random. And the markets are noticing.
“We really see this as a shift in Ukrainian tactics to try to defund the Russian war machine,” Helima Croft, a managing director and global head of commodity strategy at the investment bank RBC Capital Markets, said in an interview.

Experts believe these attacks could have a greater impact on the Russian economy than the current sanctions.

“If you think about the sanctions that have been put in place so far, they’ve largely bypassed energy,” Croft explained. “It really has been energy exports, crude, natural gas, refined products, that have given Russia the economic lifeline to continue to fight this war.”

Ukraine says 12% of Russian refining capacity is now offline, while Reuters calculates it’s up to 14%. Russia has admitted some of its refining capacity is down and has temporarily banned exports of gasoline to avoid an increase in domestic fuel prices.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Colonel: Very difficult for Ukraine to maintain current frontline

The lack of military aid is pushing Ukraine into a critical situation with air defense and artillery shells, making it difficult to maintain the frontline at its current length, said Estonian Defense Forces' Col. Janno Märk.

news.err.ee

The lack of military aid is pushing Ukraine into a critical situation with air defense and artillery shells, making it difficult to maintain the frontline at its current length, said Estonian Defense Forces' Col. Janno Märk.

The Russian troops still hold the initiative and attack pace on the front in various directions and Ukraine is forced into strategic defense, Märk told Sunday's "Ukraina stuudio".

Ukrainian forces need air defense and artillery shells, he said, and Russia is exploiting the situation. One example, is Russia's recent attacks on Ukraine's energy and civilian infrastructure.

"Russia is certainly trying to take advantage of a certain stagnation or insecurity in Western military assistance, intensify air strikes, drone strikes during this period, in order to also sway the West's will to help Ukraine," said Märk.

The colonel highlighted an interview given by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week in which he said the front had been stabilized, but that Ukraine would not be able to withstand a new major attack.

Discussions about a Russian offensive this spring have already started but it is difficult to assess whether it will happen, Märk said. However, it is known that Russia mobilizes approximately 30,000 men per month and has been doing so for a year and a half.

"This force is certainly not at the same level of training and equipment as at the beginning of the war. If you look at the live mass, they likely have some capacity to at least maintain the current rate of attack and perhaps open up some new directions. But it is rather difficult to assess the likelihood of this," Märk said.

Ukraine's air defenses have been redirected from the frontline and are being used to protect cities and critical infrastructure, he added.

"Air defense is a very critical gap of which Ukraine needs to be given more. And artillery shells," stated Märk.

Ukraine is building defense lines and has been doing so since 2014, but without military assistance, the defense lines must be drawn together, he said.

"If U.S. military aid does not increase, Ukraine will still have to retreat, or give up certain areas, or shorten the front, because at its current length it will be very difficult for Ukraine to maintain it with current resources," Märk said.

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1775147439495717279

This means that of the €3 billion Euros required to procure all 1.5 million shells, the Czech initiative has secured commitments of €1.44 billion. Still a lot more needs to be done.

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1775153015701262657

Another 1.2 million artillery shells for Ukraine?

At the latest UDCG meeting, Estonia informed the coalition that they have identified €2 billion-€3 billion worth of artillery ammunition available on the global market *in addition* to the ammo sourced by Czechia.

Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur tells newspaper Postimees that deliveries could begin in 2 months if funding is secured. The available ammunition includes 122mm Grad rockets, and 122mm, 152mm & 155mm shells.

How many shells this would translate to depends on the price. Postimees put the average global unit price at €2500, which is reasonable given the Czech estimate of €3 billion being required for 1.5 million shells, for a unit price of €2000.

The Estonian initiative could therefore source between 800,000 and 1,200,000 shells.

With the Czech initiative still not fully funded though, according to public information, it is imperative that the European Peace Facility's Ukraine Assistance Fund be tapped to finance these procurements. Ukraine can't wait for this ammunition.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Zelensky: Russia used over 4,000 missiles, Shahed drones, guided aerial bombs against Ukraine in March

Russian forces launched over 400 missiles of various types, 600 Shahed drones, and 3,000 guided aerial bombs, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on April 3.

kyivindependent.com

Russia used over 4,000 missiles, Shahed drones, and guided aerial bombs against Ukraine in March, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on April 3.

Military Intelligence: Russia has about 200 Su-34, Su-35 fighter jets, 7 A-50 planes

Russia has about 100 Su-35 fighter jets, more than 100 Su-34 fighter bombers, and seven A-50 early warning and control aircraft as of March, ArmyInform reported on April 3, citing data provided by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR).

kyivindependent.com

Russia has about 100 Su-35 fighter jets, more than 100 Su-34 fighter bombers, and seven A-50 early warning and control aircraft as of March, ArmyInform reported on April 3, citing data provided by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR).

In February, Ukraine said it downed 13 Russian aircraft in only two weeks. This is the biggest number of planes the country managed to destroy in a single month since October 2022, according to the Defense Ministry.

This list included 10 Su-34 fighter bombers, two Su-35 fighter jets, and one more rare A-50 military spy plane. Another A-50 aircraft was downed a month prior.

Three of the seven Russian A-50s are undergoing repairs and modernization, according to the HUR.

Zelensky Lowers Ukraine’s Draft Age, Risking Political Backlash

The idea of requiring more men to join the fight against Russia’s invasion has become toxic, but Russia is not relenting in its assault.

www.nytimes.com

The new measures, which Parliament had passed last May and which Mr. Zelensky signed into law late Tuesday, lower the draft eligibility age to 25, from 27; eliminate a category of medical exemption known as “partially eligible”; and create an electronic database of men in Ukraine starting at age 17.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-ukraine-sign-security-agreement-2024-04-03/

Finland on Wednesday signed a 10-year security pact with Ukraine and will send it a further 188 million euros ($203 million) in military aid, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said after meeting Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv.

Finland will also provide another package of defence materials including air defence and heavy-calibre ammunition among other things, Stubb said at a joint press conference with Zelenskiy in the Ukrainian capital.
He said the fresh aid package would take the total Finnish contribution to Ukraine's defence since 2022 to around 2 billion euros.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/macron-france-russia-putin-b89d1177?mod=hp_lead_pos4

President Emmanuel Macron of France held confidential calls with President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in February to lay the groundwork for a Paris summit that he hoped would shake up the West’s strategy in the Ukraine war.

Western allies—Macron told each leader, according to officials—should adopt a position of strategic ambiguity toward Russia that would leave all military options on the table.

The idea represented a radical break from the stance the Biden administration had maintained since the start of the war. Washington’s approach was calibrated to avoid actions that might provoke Moscow and escalate the conflict. Macron, in contrast, wanted to stop broadcasting the limits of Western engagement—what are called the West’s “red lines”—and instead keep the Kremlin guessing.

Biden questioned the need for a change in strategy, the officials said, amid concerns it could lead to an escalation. Scholz also opposed the idea, saying it risked dividing allies and making NATO countries a party to the conflict.

When the February summit took place, the French leader fielded further objections from Scholz and others—the U.S. sent James O’Brien, the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs—on his push for a new approach.

Yet at the close of the event, Macron stunned allies by telling a news conference that no military options should be ruled out, even the deployment of troops from NATO countries.

Behind the scenes, French officials have stressed that Macron isn’t seeking to send troops to Ukraine for combat. Rather, French officials have suggested NATO countries consider deploying personnel there to train troops and clear minefields.

Macron’s push for a strategic shift, however, risks dividing the very allies he is seeking to lead. Washington, Berlin and many other capitals across Western Europe promptly declared they were unwilling to send troops to Ukraine following Macron’s remarks in February. The red lines Macron sought to shroud in ambiguity were now fully exposed.

“Strategic ambiguity is desirable, but we now ended up with strategic unambiguity,” said a senior European official.

The Kremlin is seizing on the divisions. An internal Kremlin memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal describes plans for Moscow to launch a diplomatic outreach and influence campaign to amplify the rift over Macron’s stance and weaken public support for Ukraine. The memo says the campaign should be designed to portray Macron as an adventurist who could trigger a military confrontation between the West and Russia.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Putin Plots War of Attrition in Ukraine Amid Manpower Challenges

President Vladimir Putin is determined to grind Ukraine into submission, betting he can outlast Kyiv’s Western backers and claim victory on the battlefield even as Russian troops make only halting progress.

www.bloomberg.com

President Vladimir Putin is determined to grind Ukraine into submission, betting he can outlast Kyiv’s Western backers and claim victory on the battlefield even as Russian troops make only halting progress.
Bolstered by a new six-year term in power and attempting to blame Kyiv for Russia’s worst terror attack in two decades, Putin’s committed to pursue his war goals after a tentative diplomatic outreach to the US late last year came to nothing, said four people familiar with the Kremlin’s military strategy.
US officials have said they saw no indication the Russian president was serious late last year about looking for a way to end the fighting, and have rejected the idea of cease-fire talks without Ukraine.
“Putin’s likely to escalate now,” said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Moscow-based Center for Political Information, which provides consultancy services for the presidential administration. “His goal is victory.”

Ukrainian Strikes on Russian oil refineries: What's the impact?

Drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and their economic impact have become one of the more successful Ukrainian campaigns.

www.euronews.com

Director of the International Programme at Kyiv School of Economics Elina Ribakova told Euronews: "These strikes will create a lot of damage and putting refineries back on track will be incredibly challenging. They rely on sophisticated technology and a lot of large imported components."

Russian oil refineries play a crucial role in the country's economy and its global energy presence. These refineries process crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, catering to both domestic consumption and international export markets.

As one of the world's largest oil producers, Russia relies heavily on its refining capacity to maintain its position in the global energy landscape.
The Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have disrupted this vital sector, causing immediate production losses and infrastructural damage. These strikes not only target Russia's economic infrastructure but also serve as a strategic move by Ukraine to retaliate against Russian aggression. As a result of the strikes, Russian refineries are facing operational challenges, leading to reduced output and supply chain disruptions.

"Since Russian import capacity for refined oil products is limited in the short run, since they're set up to export, it's actually a fairly clever way of causing disruption in the Russian market with limited impact globally," Aslak Berg, Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told Euronews.
According to him, Ukraine's strategy so far has been to conduct strikes against Russian oil refineries and not Russia's crude oil production facilities or export platforms.

"The Ukrainians have been hitting refineries, not Russian crude oil production or export facilities. This causes problems for Russia's domestic market for refined products, but for the rest of the world, a decline in Russia's exports of products will be compensated for by increased exports of crude oil," Berg explained.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

F-16 fighter jets ‘no longer relevant’, says Ukrainian military official

Air force expected to receive a dozen aircraft in July, but high-ranking officer says army now needs ‘hundreds of thousands of shells’

www.telegraph.co.uk

American-made F-16 fighter jets due to arrive in Ukraine this summer are “no longer relevant”, a senior Ukrainian military official has said.
Ukraine’s air force is expected to take delivery of the first tranche of a dozen aircraft in July after Ukrainian pilots have been trained and the country’s airfields prepared.
Before their arrival, the Western warplanes had been held up by some as a potential war-winner that could turn the tide of the conflict in Kyiv’s favour.
“Often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them – they come when they’re no longer relevant,” a Ukrainian high-ranking officer told the Politico news website.
“Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024.”

Ukrainian forces are being beaten back by their Russian enemy across almost the entire 600-mile front line – a situation blamed on worsening ammunition shortages, partly caused by a blocked $60 billion US aid package.
This has increased calls by Kyiv for more traditional weapons, such as air defence interceptors, artillery howitzers and shells.
“We need howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells, and rockets,” the officer said, estimating that Ukraine needed four million shells and two million drones.

Video: https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1775534281600721358

Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) loaded with explosives attack Russian positions somewhere on the frontline.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1775479877682053129

Ukraine's Mykhailo Fedorov announced the project to develop a drone interceptor to go after Russian UAVs -the interceptor should fly at 100-150 km/h at an altitude of up to 1,500 meters.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1775424155564847187

Ukraine has developed a Bayrakatar-like drone, named “Sokol-300” that can reach a range of 3300km and fly at an altitude of 12km, with a 300kg payload

It would be able to reach 80 of Russia’s 99 main air bases, including the long-range bombers stationed in Murmansk

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1775530158985765326

International partners need more funds to purchase ammunition for Ukraine, as "much more can be done," said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavski before the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels on April 3, Ukrinform reports.

Ukraine needs more ammunition, as Russia still has the ability to produce much more than Kyiv can use at the front.
He also noted that the Czech initiative is aimed at improving the situation, and therefore he will persuade his colleagues to join it and make their contribution.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1775522242211754310

Two Russia vulnerabilities maps side by side - Ukraine has extended its kamikaze drone range into Russia considerably since last year.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1775475646250025425

Rare footage of the combat use of the Brimstone missile in Ukraine. The destroyed Russian BMP-2 on the video is claimed to be the result of the Brimstone strike.

Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing

According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.

www.politico.eu

And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim.

The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,” they said.

They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely.

“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.

According to him, it is only Ukrainian grit and resilience as well as errors by Russian commanders that may now alter the grim dynamics. Mistakes like the one made on Saturday, when Russia launched one of the largest tank assaults on Ukrainian positions since its full-scale invasion began, only to have the column smashed by Ukraine’s 25th Brigade, which took out a dozen tanks and 8 infantry fighting vehicles — a third of the column’s strength.

However, the high-ranking Ukrainian officers reminded that relying on Russian errors is not a strategy, and they were bitter about the missteps they say hamstrung Ukraine’s resistance from the start — missteps made by both the West and Ukraine. They were also scathing about Western foot-dragging, saying supplies and weapons systems came too late and in insufficient numbers to make the difference they otherwise could have.

“Zaluzhny used to call it ‘the War of One Chance,’” one of the officers said. “By that, he meant weapons systems become redundant very quickly because they’re quickly countered by the Russians. For example, we used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles [supplied by Britain and France] successfully — but just for a short time. The Russians are always studying. They don’t give us a second chance. And they’re successful in this.”

“Don’t believe the hype about them just throwing troops into the meat grinder to be slaughtered,” he added. “They do that too, of course — maximizing even more the impact of their superior numbers — but they also learn and refine.”

The officers said the shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles supplied by the U.K. and U.S. in the first weeks of the invasion came in time, helping them save Kyiv — and so, too, did the HIMARS, the light multiple-launch rocket systems, which were used to great effect, enabling them to push Russia out of Kherson in November 2022.

“But often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them — they come when they’re no longer relevant,” another senior officer said, citing the F-16 fighter jets as an example. A dozen or so F-16s are expected to be operational this summer, after basic pilot training has been completed. “Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024,” he said.

And that’s because, according to this officer, Russia is ready to counter them: “In the last few months, we started to notice missiles being fired by the Russians from Dzhankoy in northern Crimea, but without the explosive warheads. We couldn’t understand what they were doing, and then we figured it out: They’re range-finding,” he said. The officer explained that Russia’s been calculating where best to deploy its S-400 missile and radar systems in order to maximize the area they can cover to target the F-16s, keeping them away from the front lines and Russia’s logistical hubs.

The officers also said they now need more basic traditional weapons as well as drones. “We need Howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells, and rockets,” one of them told POLITICO, estimating that Ukraine needed 4 million shells and 2 million drones. “We told the Western partners all the time that we have the combat experience, we have the battlefield understanding of this war. [They] have the resources, and they need to give us what we need,” he added.

Europe, for its part, is trying to help Ukraine make up for its colossal disadvantage in artillery shells. And in this regard, a proposed Czech-led bulk artillery ammunition purchase could bring Ukraine’s total from both within and outside the EU to around 1.5 million rounds at a cost of $3.3 billion — but that’s still short of what it needs.

The officers emphasized that they need many, many more men too. The country currently doesn’t have enough men on the front lines, and this is compounding the problem of underwhelming Western support.

Then, last week, General Oleksandr Syrsky — Zaluzhny’s replacement — abruptly announced that Ukraine might not need quite so many fresh troops. After a review of resources, the figure has been “significantly reduced,” and “we expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland,” he told the Ukrinform news agency. “I am talking not only about the mobilized but also about volunteer fighters,” he said.

The plan is to move as many desk-bound uniformed personnel and those in noncombat roles to the front lines as possible, after an intensive three- to four-month training. But the senior officers POLITICO spoke to said that Syrsky was wrong and “playing along with narratives from politicians.” Then, on Tuesday, Zelenskyy signed some additional parts to an old mobilization law tightening the legal requirements for draft-age Ukrainian men to register their details, and lowering the minimum age for call-up from 27 to 25. But in Ukraine, this is just seen as tinkering.

“We don’t only have a military crisis — we have a political one,” one of the officers said. While Ukraine shies away from a big draft, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a big attack around August, and maybe sooner.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

‘No choice’: Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack

Third attack on Kerch bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea ‘inevitable’, say Ukraine’s military intelligence

www.theguardian.com

The Ukrainian spy agency behind these drone strikes has its eyes on another target: the 12-mile long Kerch bridge connecting occupied Crimea with Russia. Senior officials from Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service indicate it is plotting a third attempt on the bridge, after two previous attempts to blow it up, claiming its destruction is “inevitable”.

For Putin, the bridge is a tangible reminder of what he sees as one of his greatest political achievements: the peninsula’s 2014 “return” to Russia using undercover Russian troops and a sham referendum.

For Kyiv, the bridge is equally a hated symbol of the Kremlin’s illegal annexation. Its destruction would strengthen Ukraine’s campaign to liberate Crimea and raise morale on and off the battlefield, where Kyiv’s forces are gradually being pushed back.

How any Ukrainian attack would unfold is unclear and there are serious doubts about whether the HUR is capable of pulling off a special operation against such a well-defended and obvious target. Russia has taken extensive measures to protect the bridge, strengthening anti-aircraft defences and deploying a “target barge” as a decoy for incoming guided missiles.

The HUR thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.

The officials indicated that western weapons would allow Ukraine to destroy the bridge more speedily and Zelenskiy has repeatedly asked Berlin for its long-range Taurus missile system. Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has so far refused, arguing that this would be tantamount to his country taking a direct role in the war with Russia, and a dangerous escalation.

Pro-Kremlin Russian channels last month released an intercepted phone call in which high-ranking German military officials discussed the capabilities of Taurus. The experts estimated that 10 to 20 missiles would probably be enough to destroy the bridge.

Budanov’s deputy, Maj Gen Vadym Skybytskyi, said he believed European politicians were wrong to fear escalation. “What does escalation mean for us? We have had two years of war. It’s an everyday procedure,” he said. “Russia bombs our territory. It hits power stations and civilian infrastructure.”

He said victory was currently impossible on the battlefield, given Russia’s military superiority and a shortage on the Ukrainian side of artillery shells and fighter jets, and suggested Kyiv had “no choice” but to take the fight to targets deep behind enemy lines, including military infrastructure, command and control centres and industrial production sites that made “weapons and munitions”. Kyiv used a Nato-standard procedure known as centre of gravity or Cog, he added – a model where outsized results can be achieved by selecting and then eliminating a few carefully picked high-value targets.

Ukraine planned to strike more Russian targets, Skybytskyi claimed, with undercover agents playing a part. Some were “Russians with Ukrainian roots”; others were non-ideological Russians recruited in exchange for payments. The “pool” was so large the HUR could pick and choose candidates for sabotage operations, he said.

But Russia’s own spy agencies were now back after a period on the back foot, the general added. They had adapted their techniques, he suggested. After Putin’s full-scale invasion, western governments, including the UK, expelled large numbers of career Russian intelligence officers stationed abroad under diplomatic cover.

There was apparent proof of the Kremlin’s renewed confidence in February when a Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine was found murdered in a Spanish seaside resort. Brigadier-general Dmytro Timkov, the HUR’s top security official, said Maksim Kuzminov had been warned not to leave Ukraine for the EU. He ignored the advice, Timkov said.

Timkov compared Ukraine to a patient on life support, in desperate need of further assistance. “We are attached to a drip. We have enough drugs to stay alive. But if the west wants us to win we need the full treatment,” he said. “Otherwise we fall down.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Power cut in Kharkiv and region leaves 350,000 residents without electricity – DW – 04/04/2024

p.dw.com

Around 350,000 residents of Kharkiv and the surrounding region were left without electricity following an overnight Russian drone attack that also killed four people, including rescue workers.

"In Kharkiv and areas of the region, around 350,000 consumers have been disconnected," the Ukrenergo grid operator said in a statement.

Russia has repeatedly struck Ukraine's electricity grid, cutting power to thousands of people in an attempt to damage its energy infrastructure. Last summer, Russian strikes blew up the Kakhova hydroelectric dam causing widespread flooding.

Commenting on Thursday's attack President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it "despicable and cynical".

"When the rescuers arrived at the scene of the strike, the terrorists attacked again." he said.

The ‘menacing’ call with Russia that’s turning into a diplomatic headache for France

France accuses Russia of manipulating the readout of the call.

www.politico.eu

Former French President François Hollande recommended that the French government should seek "no contact with Russia."

"Do you see how Russia manipulates these discussions and hints that France might have supported the attacks in Moscow?" he said on France Inter radio.

Russia also claimed that Lecornu and Shoigu discussed potential talks on Ukraine, a statement that was swiftly denied by another French official.

"The objective of the call was exclusively to discuss terrorism, and the narrative that France is open to talks on Ukraine is false," said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/small-uncrewed-ukrainian-plane-likely-used-attack-deep-inside-russia-experts-2024-04-04/

A Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) that hit Russia's Tatarstan region this week was likely a modified Aeroprakt A-22 Ukrainian-made light aircraft, several experts said, offering insight into one of Kyiv's deepest drone strikes to date.
Russia said the attack hit an industrial site's dorms and hurt 13 people. A Kyiv intelligence source said it struck a site used to produce Russian long-range drones that have been used in the thousands to pound Ukraine during the 25-month war.
Janes, the defence intelligence company, told Reuters it had tentatively confirmed from the video that the aircraft used was the A-22, a family of two-seat ultra-light aircraft developed and manufactured by Aeroprakt in Ukraine.
Aeroprakt's founder and chief designer Yuriy Yakovlyev told Reuters the silhouette of the drone looked similar to the A-22, but that his company was not involved in UAV production as it did not have any knowledge of producing UAV navigation or control systems.

SBU: Russian information operations seek to discredit Ukraine's top officials, military

Russian intelligence services have launched a "huge number" of disinformation and psychological operations against Ukraine's top government and military officials, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) cybersecurity chief Illia Vitiuk said in an interview with Ukrinform published on April 4.

kyivindependent.com

Russian intelligence services have launched a "huge number" of disinformation and psychological operations against Ukraine's top government and military officials, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) cybersecurity chief Illia Vitiuk said in an interview with Ukrinform published on April 4.

Ukraine's security services have previously identified such operations conducted by Moscow to undermine the Ukrainian leadership, namely the "Maidan-3" campaign that was reported on in November.

"There was a month when, according to our calculations, Russia launched more than a thousand different information attacks on various platforms," Vitiuk said.

Reuters: Russia faces difficulties repairing oil refineries due to US sanctions

Russian companies are facing difficulties in repairing oil refineries due to Western sanctions, and Ukrainian drone attacks could worsen the problem, Reuters reported on April 4, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

kyivindependent.com

Russian companies are facing difficulties in repairing oil refineries due to Western sanctions, and Ukrainian drone attacks could worsen the problem, Reuters reported on April 4, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1775762666448990434

Shocking footage from drone attack on Kharkiv overnight. At least 4 dead. Russia has updated its Iranian munitions so that they now fly faster (up to 300km/h), higher, and with new wing coating that makes shooting them down much more difficult.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian military ‘almost completely reconstituted,’ US official says

The assessment from Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell appears to contradict that of the Pentagon and U.S. allies.

www.defensenews.com

Russia has rebuilt its military after suffering enormous losses during its invasion of Ukraine, according to a U.S. State Department official.

“We have assessed over the course of the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily,” said Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell at an event hosted by the Center for a New American Security.

Campbell’s assessment seems to contradict those of the Pentagon and America’s allies in Europe.

At a meeting of countries that support Ukraine late last month, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that Russia had suffered more than 315,000 casualties during the war. With a drop in American aid, leading to ammunition shortages on Ukraine’s front lines, Russian forces have advanced. But those too have been costly, the Pentagon has said.

In an interview earlier this year, the chair of Lithuania’s national security committee estimated it would take Russia between five and seven years to reconstitute its forces for a full-scale war.

Still Moscow has surged defense spending since 2022 — up to 6% of national GDP in its 2024 budget. The rise is part of a larger effort by the Kremlin to move its economy, and in particular its defense industry, onto a wartime footing.

Part of its success comes from China’s support, along with that from North Korea and Iran. Both Campbell and another senior administration official, speaking with reporters this week on the condition of anonymity, said that China has helped its partner endure economic and military setbacks in the last two years.

“We’ve really seen the [People’s Republic of China] start to help to rebuild Russia’s defense industrial base, essentially backfilling the trade from European partners” that lapsed when Russia invaded, the official said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-soldiers-engineers-toil-round-clock-build-defences-2024-04-04/

Ukraine has put down 100,000 "dragon's teeth" as part of defences stretching 2,000 km which allow for future advances, Oleksiy Kuleba, a deputy head of Zelenskiy's office who is overseeing the fortifications, told Reuters.
"The situation is dynamic. There will always be the need to reinforce, build additional fortifications or change them. Work will continue and go on even after our victory," he said.
In the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, one of the hottest front line sectors, work goes on around the clock.
"Drones sent by the aggressor keep flying over us," said Maksym, an engineer and building inspector, as a crane lifts reinforced concrete into place and workers strip bark off logs.

Western officials warn munition shortages could be catastrophic for Ukraine as US stalls on providing more aid

Ukraine’s shortage of ammunition and military equipment resulting from the US and its allies’ struggle to resupply the country’s military is having an increasingly dire effect on the battlefield, US and NATO officials are warning, as Russia intensifies its attacks on Kyiv’s dwindling air defenses knowing that they likely won’t be replenished anytime soon.

The Ukrainian military is “experiencing shortages in air defense munitions, mostly in the medium to long range,” a NATO official said on Wednesday. “It’s not just that we know that. It’s that Russia knows that. So Russia is using drones and missiles in ways that are really explicitly designed to deplete Ukrainian air defense systems.”

Ukraine has been rationing its air defenses for about a month now, said another person familiar with western intelligence. The Ukrainians had limited systems to start with, including the US and German-provided Patriot systems around Kyiv, some S-200 and S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, and some older, retrofitted Soviet launchers that they have been using to fire western missiles like Sidewinders, this person said.

The official suggested that by now, the Ukrainians must be making “tough decisions” on where to prioritize their air defenses because of the dwindling supply. And the separate shortages of artillery ammunition could be “potentially catastrophic” for Ukraine in the short term, the official added.

Russia, meanwhile, maintains a “significant quantitative advantage” over Ukraine in terms of munitions, manpower, and equipment, the NATO official said, and is likely recruiting roughly 30,000 additional personnel per month. Russia has continued a “gradual advance” west of Avdiivka over the last month, the official said, but it is continuing to build momentum and take advantage of the fact that Ukraine has fewer fixed, well-defended positions in urban areas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Ukraine has managed to “stabilize” the situation but predicted that Russia could launch a new major offensive by May or June that will be difficult to defeat without significantly ramped up western support.

The NATO official said that as of now, Russia appears to lack the necessary maneuver units to mount such a large-scale, successful attack. US officials are growing increasingly concerned, however, that Ukraine’s frontline positions may not be resilient enough to fend off Russia’s ongoing advances, especially given their acute shortages of artillery ammunition.

One significant breakthrough in the frontline could open the floodgates to a Russian onslaught, one US official warned, and it has been difficult to determine just how fortified the Ukrainian positions are right now.

Russia has been able to make some “tactical” advances, the NATO official acknowledged, despite Ukraine’s attempts to fortify the frontline with anti-tank Dragon’s Teeth obstacles and ditches, infantry trenches, and minefields.

“It’s still relatively small advances that are being made there” by the Russians, the official said. “But that doesn’t mean I’m not concerned at all because strategic advances are made up of a lot of tactical advances.”

However, though the situation is dire, Ukraine has had some successes. Attacks on Russia’s energy sector have had a notable impact.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries using long-range drones are “imposing financial costs on Russia and impacting the domestic fuel market,” the NATO official said.

The assessment is notable given that US officials have expressed misgivings over the Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, reiterating that the US does not encourage or enable Ukrainian strikes inside Russian territory.

“We understand the calls of our American partners” to halt the attacks, Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said during remarks at a security forum in Kyiv last month. “At the same time, we are fighting with the capabilities, resources and practices that are available to us today.”

The NATO official said the attacks on the refineries are having a “significant” impact, disrupting as much as 15% of Russia’s refinery capacity. Rebuilding that capacity will likely take “considerable time and expense,” the official said.

As a result of the Ukrainian strikes, Russia has had to significantly increase its gasoline imports from Belarus and has even imposed a 6-month ban on exports in order to stabilize domestic prices, the official said.

“We are seeing fewer and fewer of these types of Russian energy critical infrastructures that are safe from potential strikes, and a greater and greater impact on the Russian economy,” the official said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1776012124667490405

Russia’s Morozovsk Airbase is currently under Ukrainian drone attack, with several explosions seen in the vicinity of the airfield.

Morozovsk is home to a number of Russian Air Force Su-34 fighterbombers.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1776019860985676093

There are many loud explosions at Morozovsk Air Base in Russia, located 300km from the front in Ukraine

Over 60 explosions have been reported. The air base is home to 36x Su-34 and 4x Su-24 Russian Fighter Jets

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1776015320181772596

Morozovsk is a known Su-34 hub, with Russian fighters launching standoff glide bomb attacks over western Ukraine.

Sentinel-2 imagery from Monday confirms that the base is still packed.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1775956294412705956

Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently stated that "Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily." Frontelligence Insight has diligently observed Russian forces, their composition, and available resources. We would like to share several important points:
2/ While it's true that Russia is constantly rebuilding its forces and trying to replace losses, including recruiting new personnel and creating new units and military districts, the reality differs significantly from what appears on paper.
3/ Frontelligence Insight has closely monitored multiple Russian units and noted a problem that has become more apparent since 2023 and continues to worsen in 2024: armored losses are being replaced by civilian vehicles such as vans, pickup trucks, and other unarmored vehicles
4/ We documented evidence of the replacement of T-72 tanks of various modifications with T-62 and T-55s in at least one tank unit. While we don't know the situation across all units, occasional videos of T-55 and T-62 in different areas suggest that this is not an isolated case
5/ According to Oryx, since the start of the invasion, the number of lost vehicles has surpassed 15,000, as of around 2024/03/24, including 2,856 tanks, 135 helicopters, 106 aircraft, and 20 ships. Russia cannot replace such numbers within two years, despite the Soviet legacy
6/ In fairness, Russia still maintains an advantage over Ukraine in terms of replacement and substitution, as Ukraine has received minimal replacements since 2023, and its domestic production, while improving significantly, still lags behind in meeting frontline needs.
7/ Despite suffering losses in land, naval, and aerial vehicles, Russia has seriously expanded its UAV arsenal, potentially one of the most numerous in the world, consisting of hundreds of thousands of tactical reconnaissance, suicide, and bomber drones.
8/ Yet, newly formed units don't get vehicles per their organizational structure, sometimes resembling rifle units more than motorized or mechanized units. Furthermore, during the Avdiivka battle, the newly formed 25th CAA had to transfer its equipment to the 2nd and 41st armies.
9/ Considering the above, Russian forces went through transformation, acquiring new UAV and EW capabilities as well as valuable experience, while also suffering tens of thousands of vehicle losses and the loss of experienced officers and soldiers.
Electronic warfare system installed atop a damaged and abandoned Russian vehicle, designed to counter FPV drones. Drone footage captured during the failed assault in February 2024
10/ It will take Russia multiple years to rebuild its army. Moreover, given the experience in the invasion of Ukraine, its post-2022 forces, previously organized in BTG units, will look very different - the future size and composition will depend on the outcomes of the war.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-says-russia-very-likely-responsible-baltic-gps-disruptions-2024-04-04/

Russia is "very likely" behind a series of disturbances affecting GPS navigation in the Baltic region, the German Defence Ministry said on Thursday, pointing to the Kaliningrad exclave as a source of the problem.

Germany will immediately seek Patriot systems for Ukraine - Foreign Ministry

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

Germany initiates an immediate search for all available Patriot batteries and other air defense systems not only among allies but also globally, in order to transfer them to Ukraine, announced the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine hits Russian air base in large drone attack

Russia’s defense ministry says it downed most of the drones.

www.politico.eu

Ukraine claimed it destroyed six Russian fighter bombers in an attack early Friday on the Morovosk air base, located about 350 kilometers from the frontlines, according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the matter.

Ukraine unleashed a large attack hitting Russia’s Rostov, Saratov, Kursk, and Belgorod regions, the Russian defense ministry reported on Telegram.

Russian defense forces claimed to have shot down at least 44 drones over the Rostov region — where the air base is located — revealing no more details.

“The attack on the Morozovsk airfield was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine together with the military and the defense forces. At least six fighter bombers were destroyed,” a Ukrainian law enforcement official told POLITICO on condition of being granted anonymity, adding that another eight airplanes were "significantly damaged" and 20 Russian soldiers were killed.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1776256012971880500

Footage of what appears to be a Ukrainian hexacopter with installed machine gun firing at Russian positions.

Seen through the camera of a Russian UAV.

Ukrainian forces rig machine gun networks to down Russian drones

The fallback tactics towards mobile, low-cost defenses come as sophisticated interceptor missiles donated by Western allies are running low.

www.defensenews.com

Ukrainian forces have rigged an elaborate network of sensors in the country that feeds targeting data to heavy machine guns for downing Russian combat drones, according to analysts.

The fallback tactics towards mobile, low-cost defenses come as sophisticated interceptor missiles donated by Western allies are running low.

“Mobile air defense in Ukraine is probably responsible for over 40% intercepts of these systems [Shahed-type drones],” Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment think tank who frequently travels to Ukraine for research, told Defense News. “This is partly due to the deficit of munitions for valuable interceptive systems like Patriots, IRIS-T, amongst others,” he said.

The cheaper option, he explained, consists of “heavy machine guns, with thermal scopes and tablets, paired on a gun mount.”

Kofman said that the tactics of using firearms to shoot down Russian drones are part of an intricate web of detection systems scattered around the country.

“This system works because the gun crew is part of an elaborate sensor network set up around Ukrainian cities; there is an integrated system for tracking incoming drones, including radar and acoustics, and a robust network of electronic warfare systems,” Kofman said.

“That forces Shahed drones to increase in altitude from their standard low-altitude flight in order to navigate,” he added.

Another cheap sensor network Ukrainians have established to track Russian aerial threats consists thousands of cell phones placed next to microphones atop six-foot poles throughout the country, forwarding incoming engine noise to anti-aircraft artillery units for processing.

In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, the commander of U.S. Air Forces Europe, Gen. James Hecker, praised the technique’s success rate.

“They had 84 of them that came in the other day – they detected 84 and shot down 80 with the anti-aircraft artillery units,” the Hecker said.

Air Force: Ukraine downs all 13 Shahed drones launched overnight

Russian forces launched two S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles, three Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and 13 Shahed drones at Ukraine overnight, the Air Force reported on the morning of April 5.

kyivindependent.com

Russian forces launched two S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles, three Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and 13 Shahed drones at Ukraine overnight, the Air Force reported on the morning of April 5.

Ukrainian air defense units successfully intercepted all 13 Shahed drones.

According to the Air Force, the drones were launched from Cape Chauda in occupied Crimea, and the missiles from Belgorod Oblast in Russia.

Mobile firing groups shot down the drones over Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

Russia is trying to sabotage European railways, warns Prague

Czech transport minister tells FT of ‘thousands’ of attempts to interfere with train networks and signals

www.ft.com

Russia has made “thousands” of attempts to interfere with European rail networks in a campaign to destabilise the EU and sabotage critical infrastructure, according to the Czech Republic’s transport minister.
Martin Kupka told the Financial Times that Moscow was suspected to have made “thousands of attempts to weaken our systems” since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The hacking campaign included attacks on signalling systems and on the networks of the Czech national railway operator České dráhy, Kupka said. Past attacks have put ticketing systems out of service and raised concerns about successful interference with signals causing serious accidents.
“It’s definitely a difficult point . . .[but] I’m really very satisfied because we are able to defend all systems before a successful attack,” Kupka said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1776223223333470285

Russian AI-enabled FPV drones. Ukraine's Sergyi Flash warned about this months ago, noting that this would be a very dangerous development.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1776221081294057511

Fighter-bomber channel affiliated with the Russian Air Force admitted that there were drone impacts in the area of the Morozovsk Air Base, but said that there were no aircraft or personnel losses, as they managed to spread out in advance.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1776171401931579687

Ukraine’s drone strike destroys 6 aircraft, damages 8 at Russia’s Morozovsk airbase – media

MT Anderson, an OSINT analyst, estimates that the Morozovsk airbase might have had up to 30 Russian aircraft on-site at the moment of the drone assault.

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1776147289889030427

In today’s Russian papers, Russia’s opponents depicted as “forces of the Antichrist” and Russia described as a country “chosen by God.” How Moscow views the world right now.

Is Russia planning a new offensive on Kharkiv? What experts say and how Ukrainian government is preparing

hromadske.ua

Serhii Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, believes that such a scenario is unlikely at this time. He explains that "a much larger grouping" is needed to attack Kharkiv, and Russia does not have such a reserve now.

Kuzan said in a comment to hromadske that we are now witnessing a situation that was recently experienced in Sumy Oblast. The intensification of shelling was accompanied by information that the Russian occupation forces could attack this region. The expert added that Ukrainian intelligence will know when the threat of an offensive increases.

Former SBU officer Ivan Stupak told hromadske that it is obvious that Kharkiv is among the Russian targets, but they cannot implement their plan now. Therefore, the latest attacks on the city are aimed at weakening it in order to exert psychological pressure.

Russian Forces Advance Toward Chasiv Yar; Dozens Of Ukraine Drones Target Russian Sites

Russian forces have reportedly entered the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, as exhausted and artillery-depleted Ukrainian troops struggle to hold defenses of the Donetsk region city.

www.rferl.org

Russian forces have reportedly entered the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, as exhausted and artillery-depleted Ukrainian troops struggle to hold defenses of the Donetsk region city.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-military-denies-russian-forces-have-reached-suburbs-chasiv-yar-2024-04-05/

The Ukrainian military denied on Friday that Russian forces had entered the suburbs of Chasiv Yar, a town in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, but said there was fighting in the area.
"The situation there is very difficult, the fighting continues, but they (Russian troops) are not there," Andriy Zadubinnyi, spokesman for Ukraine's eastern command told Reuters. "Don't believe the Russian reports."

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1776209450585448782

There is a video, released by UA 67th brigade. Not sure why they are denying it.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1776061384565944550

Russian forces continue to conduct assaults on several parts of the front with an artillery and manpower advantage, including advancing to the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, towards Robotyne, and north of Novomykhailivka.

DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map

deepstatemap.live

 

[The Z Machine]

How long until Ukraine starts targeting civilian infrastructure in Russia like Russia is doing to them? Destroying power plants and the like? I guess they are using their attack drones to hit military targets only thus far.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Antony Blinken warns allies of deepening Chinese support for Russia

US secretary of state says Beijing’s assistance to Moscow’s military-industry complex is at ‘concerning scale’

www.ft.com

The US has warned its European allies that China is deepening its support for Russia’s military-industrial complex with assistance that is both helping its invasion of Ukraine and threatening other countries.
Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, used meetings with EU and Nato foreign ministers this week to warn Beijing was assisting Moscow “at a concerning scale”, and providing “tools, inputs and technical expertise”, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
They quoted Blinken as saying the assistance was particularly focused on Russia’s production of optical equipment and propellants and its space sector, which he said “not only contributes to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine but threatens other countries”.
Blinken raised the concerns about China in every session of a meeting of Nato foreign ministers on Wednesday and Thursday, one of the people said.
“The warnings were explicit,” the person said. “There has been a shift and it was felt in the room . . . this was a new development. It was very striking.”

Dwindling Ammunition Stocks Pose Grave Threat to Ukraine

What few munitions remain are often mismatched with battlefield needs as the country’s forces gird for an expected Russian offensive this summer.

www.nytimes.com

The crew at an artillery position in eastern Ukraine had 33 shells in its ammunition bunker, stacked neatly like firewood against a wall.
Then came an order to fire. Twenty minutes later, smoke wafted around a howitzer and 17 shells were gone — more than half the crew’s ammunition. The rapidly depleted stack was emblematic of Ukraine’s dwindling supply of artillery munitions, even as Russian attacks persist.
“Artillery decides battles,” said Capt. Vladyslav Slominsky, the artillery commander along this section of the front. “Who has more wins.”
For now, that is Russia, as Ukrainian soldiers are reaching for some of the last ammunition for some types of weapons after months of delays in the U.S. Congress over a fresh round of military and financial assistance. There are signs that the logjam may be breaking, as Speaker Mike Johnson this week laid out potential conditions for bringing the measure up for a vote that it is expected to pass despite opposition from many conservative Republicans.
The shortfall comes as Ukraine is on the defensive along the 600-mile front line in eastern Ukraine and is building additional fortifications, such as bunkers, trenches and minefields. Artillery ammunition is needed to hold the line until the defensive fortifications are completed and an expected Russian offensive gets underway this summer.
Russia has had an artillery advantage throughout the war, but that edge diminished for a time last year. Estimates vary, but analysts and Ukrainian officials say Russia is now firing at least five times as many artillery rounds as Ukraine.
“You cannot expect people to fight without ammunition,” Johan Norberg, a military analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, said in a telephone interview. “That’s a basic point.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Hunts for Grid Equipment, Ammunition to Avoid Summer Blackouts

Ukraine needs improved air defenses to protect its energy assets from Russia’s missile attacks and avoid blackouts this summer when electricity use approaches its winter peak, Energy Minister German Galushchenko said.

www.bloomberg.com

Ukraine needs improved air defenses to protect its energy assets from Russia’s missile attacks and avoid blackouts this summer when electricity use approaches its winter peak, Energy Minister German Galushchenko said.
Energy facilities have become key targets for both Russia and Ukraine as the war drags into its third year. Moscow’s forces have struck at the Ukrainian energy grid to cripple its economy, while Kyiv has targeted Russia’s oil refineries to reduce fuel supplies to its military and the revenue it needs to finance the invasion.
Russia’s bombardments of Ukrainian energy targets in recent weeks were larger and better planned than the attacks in the previous two years, knocking out generating facilities and limiting power supplies. That has made restoring equipment and protecting the grid key priorities for the government even as it struggles to assess how much damage has been done.
“The destruction was significant — in power generation and in electricity transmission. The situation is difficult,” Galushchenko said in an interview in his office on Kyiv’s main street. “We still do not understand the scale of damage as many facilities are still in rubble and we can’t reach them.”
The total losses haven’t been officially estimated, though Galushchenko said they already measure in billions of hryvnia — 1 billion hryvnia is equivalent to about $26 million — and may continue to rise. The scale could eventually reach billions of dollars, he said.
Already, six gigawatts of power have been affected, officials have said, three times more than Ukraine planned to import from western allies this winter. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, said 80% of its facilities have been severely damaged.
Galushchenko said Ukraine is searching for the energy equipment it needs all over the world — and in particular in neighboring countries — to replace its damaged machinery. But that hunt may be pointless unless the nation has sufficient air defenses, he said. A vital US aid package totaling more than $60 billion is locked in the House, and ammunition is running short.

Ukraine’s air defence missiles are running out, Zelenskiy warns

After weeks of intense Russian strikes, Ukraine’s president calls for artillery shells as well as more Patriot missile systems

www.theguardian.com

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned last night that Ukraine could run out of air defence missiles if Russia keeps up its intense long-range bombing campaign.
The Ukrainian leader’s starkest warning to date of the deteriorating situation faced by his country’s air defences follows weeks of Russian strikes on the energy infrastructure, towns and cities using a vast arsenal of missiles and drones.
“If they keep hitting [Ukraine] every day the way they have for the last month, we might run out of missiles, and the partners know it,” Zelenskiy said on Ukrainian television.
Ukraine had enough air defence stockpiles to cope for the moment, he said, but added that it was already having to make difficult choices about what to protect.
He singled out in particular the need for Patriot missiles. The sophisticated US air defence systems had been vital during Russian attacks with ballistic and hypersonic missiles, and 25 systems would be needed to cover the country fully, he said.
The president also said Ukraine does not have enough ammunition for a counter-offensive against Russia but has started receiving some from partners to defend itself.
“We don’t have shells for counter-offensive actions. As for the defence – there are several initiatives, and we’re receiving weapons,” he added.

Russia accused of using chemical gas attacks against Ukrainian soldiers

Ukraine soldiers describe ‘almost daily’ illegal gas attacks as invaders seek to dislodge them from embedded positions

www.theguardian.com

Russia has been accused of systematically using illegal chemical gas attacks against Ukrainian soldiers.
Ukrainian troops told the Daily Telegraph that they have been subjected to regular attacks from small drones dropping teargas and other chemicals.
The use of such substances, which is known as CS, is banned during wartime under the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Moscow was accused of using chemical weapons in a drone assault on the port of Mariupol in the early stages of its invasion in February 2022.
Slava, a senior lieutenant whose unit is deployed near Lyman, in Donetsk oblast, said some Ukrainian units in his area were coming under “almost daily” gas attacks.
A CS gas grenade was provided to the Telegraph for verification by Rebekah Maciorowski, an American combat medic and a qualified nurse serving in the Ukrainian army.
Maciorowski has been routinely called to provide medical aid to Ukrainian soldiers in the three brigades she works with in Donetsk oblast after chemical weapon attacks, which she described as “systematic”.
The grenade was originally retrieved by soldiers in the 53rd Mechanised Brigade, one of the units with which she works.
Maciorowski said: “My guys retrieved it while under fire because nobody believed they were being attacked with chemical weapons.”
Ihor, the commander of a Ukrainian reconnaissance team deployed near the frontline city of Chasiv Yar, in Donetsk oblast, told the Telegraph: “Nearly every position in our area of the front was getting one or two gas grenades dropped on them a day.”
He said that because of how embedded many Ukrainian troops are now, it was difficult for the Russians to attack with conventional artillery or drones firing missiles, adding: “The only way for them to successfully attack us was with gas.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1776663855898226900

In TV interview, #Zelenskyy says Ukraine has stocks of air defense missiles, but warns Ukraine may not have enough if Russia keeps up its high intensity of attacks. Also says only 10% of promised F-16s will be transferred to Ukraine this year.

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1776619149004800430

There are no visibly destroyed aircraft in new imagery of Morozovsk air base in Russia following recent Ukrainian drone strikes on the site.

Many aircraft have moved since the strikes and today's imagery shows a plane using the runway.

No Major Damage Seen At Russian Air Base After Drone Attack

Soaring claims about widespread destruction at the installation, which serves as a major tactical airpower hub for Russia, appear untrue.

www.twz.com

While there are real limits to the amount of information commercially available satellite images can provide, we see no major impacts on the installation. Another image taken later today shows aircraft taxiing and one landing on the runway. Regardless, we must underline that there still could be damage, including to aircraft. Shrapnel effects and other small damage, which can still be catastrophic to aircraft and equipment, simply do not show up in satellite imagery, although subsequent fires and destruction could. So, this does not mean no damage occurred or the attack was outright unsuccessful, but this is what we can see with the imagery available.

F-16 for Ukraine. Netherlands tells when and how many planes Ukraine will receive

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

The Netherlands plans to provide Ukraine with more than 20 F-16 fighter jets. The first deliveries are to begin this year, states Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren.

"In total, we are going to transfer 24 F-16 fighters. They will be handed over to Ukraine as soon as everything is ready. This moment depends on the training of Ukrainian pilots and technical staff, as well as, of course, on the infrastructure," the Dutch minister said.

According to her, the transfer of fighter jets to the Ukrainian military is a joint effort with Denmark, the United States, Ukraine and other countries.

"It is difficult, it is complicated, but it will happen. Our coalition hopes that this summer we will be able to start delivering F-16s, first Danish and then Dutch," Ollongren added.

UK Military Intelligence: Ukrainian strikes overload Russian air defense, causing 'friendly fire'

Ukrainian recent attacks increased pressure on Russian air defense systems, leading to Russia likely shooting down its own planes, the U.K. Military Intelligence's report said on April 6.

kyivindependent.com

Ukrainian recent attacks increased pressure on Russian air defense systems, leading to Russia likely shooting down its own planes, the U.K. Military Intelligence's report said on April 6.

Syrskyi: Chasiv Yar remains under Ukraine's control, heavy battles east of city

Fierce battles are taking place east of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast as Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on April 6.

kyivindependent.com

Fierce battles are taking place east of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast as Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on April 6.

Yermak: Russian counteroffensive could start in May or June, Kharkiv likely to be targeted

Russia could launch a new counteroffensive at the end of May or the beginning of June, likely targeting Kharkiv, Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, told Politico on April 5.

kyivindependent.com

Editor's note: Andriy Yermak's spokesperson clarified on April 6 that Yermak's comments for Politico were misinterpreted by the outlet. The head of the Presidential Office referred only to Russian missile strikes against Kharkiv, not a potential offensive. We reported on the latest developments here.

Russia could launch a new counteroffensive at the end of May or the beginning of June, likely targeting Kharkiv, Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, told Politico on April 5.

Russia recently intensified attacks on Kharkiv amid warnings of a potential assault against Ukraine's second-largest city, as reported by the independent Russian media outlet Meduza, citing anonymous sources.

Nevertheless, Ukraine's military intelligence called the potential attack on Kharkiv "a part of a Russian psychological operation," adding that there were no signs of Moscow preparing new attack formations to carry out an offensive.

Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi also said that any Russia's attempt to take control over Kharkiv soon could be "fatal," but he did not rule out this scenario either.

Yermak stressed that Kyiv knows that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is preparing a new wave of mobilization, and Ukrainian forces "have to be ready" for new attacks.

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War, Week 110.

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/04/07/putins-war-week-110-n2172100

 

[Don't Toews Me]

North Korea’s Ballistic Missiles Are Getting Valuable Battlefield Testing in Ukraine

Russia’s use of North Korean missiles in its assault in Ukraine is giving Pyongyang a rare chance to test its weapons in combat and perhaps take away lessons that could improve their performance, a top US general said.

www.bloomberg.com

Russia’s use of North Korean missiles in its assault in Ukraine is giving Pyongyang a rare chance to test its weapons in combat and perhaps take away lessons that could improve their performance, a top US general said.
“I don’t believe that in my recent memory that the North Korean military has had a battlefield laboratory quite like the Russians are affording them to have in Ukraine,” said General Charles Flynn, the US Army Pacific’s commanding general.
That gives North Korea an opportunity to gain valuable information in technical matters, procedures and the munitions themselves. The US will be watching closely how this unfolds, Flynn said Saturday during a visit to the sprawling US Army Garrison Humphreys, about 80 kilometers (50 miles) south of Seoul.
Flynn said a great concern for him and others is that North Korea will be able to learn things about their weapons “they would otherwise not have access to absent a conflict” like the war in Ukraine.

Russia changes tack on targeting Ukraine’s energy plants

Instead of widespread attacks, Moscow now focuses on power stations in regions less protected than Kyiv

www.ft.com

Russia has changed tactics in targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, using precision missiles to destroy power stations in areas less protected than Kyiv, some of which cannot be fully restored in time for next winter.
Ukrainian officials said that while not as widespread, the damage that Moscow had inflicted was worse than in the winter of 2022-23, with the apparent aim now being permanent, irreparable damage.
Russia targeted seven thermal power stations between March 22 and 29 — all in other regions than Kyiv, which has some of the best air defences in the country. The Russian missiles also hit two hydroelectric power stations.
Ukraine has not given details about the extent of the damage at each plant, but officials said several, including in the Kharkiv region near the Russian border, had been almost completely destroyed.
“Our goal is to restore as much as we can by October,” said Maxim Timchenko, chief executive of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest energy producer. The group lost about 80 per cent of its power generation in Russian attacks carried out in the last week of March. Five of DTEK’s thermal plants were forced to halt operations.
Timchenko said plans exist for some substations and larger power stations that were not wholly destroyed to be brought back online. “Subject to no further attacks, at least 50 per cent of damaged power units will be reconnected to the grid.”
Had it not been for the warm weather, energy imports from the EU and an increase in renewable energy generation, Ukraine would have experienced widespread blackouts, as it did in 2022-23, Timchenko said.

The second, important difference with the winter of 2022-2023 is that Russia is now also using expensive precision ballistic missiles, said Andriy Gerus, head of Ukraine’s parliamentary committee for energy and utilities.
Gerus said that one recent attack on a coal power plant used $100mn worth of ballistic missiles — yet Ukraine has only a handful of US-made Patriot air defence systems capable of shooting them down.
Russia is still using drones in large numbers, however, but as a cheaper way to hit other parts of the energy system such as transformers, according to Andriy Cherniak, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence.
“We expected the attacks at the beginning of the winter but we now see that the missiles they have used are freshly made,” said Cherniak. He estimated that Russia has enough missiles for one or two more big attacks in the coming weeks.
While the damage is said to be more permanent than in the winter of 2022-2023, it is more localised and the impact is being temporarily mitigated by a combination of large electricity imports from the European Union, domestic solar power stations and warm weather, said Gerus.

Russia ups blame-shifting for terror attack to Ukraine, brags it’s boosting recruitment

Moscow claims thousands more have signed up to fight in Ukraine in the wake of the Crocus City Hall mass shooting.

www.politico.eu

The effort to blame-shift is crucial for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has carefully cultivated a strongman image, given his regime had dismissed U.S. warnings about a potential impending terror attack in Moscow.

On Sunday, Russian state media published footage of what it said were the interrogations of the four Tajiks who Moscow says carried out the attack. In the video, the battered and bruised men look behind the camera and give what appear to be rehearsed responses, claiming they had tried to flee to Kyiv, where a man had promised to reward them with a million rubles (€10,000) each. Russia’s state TV said the four men had Ukrainian flags on their phones.

The Russian defense ministry, meanwhile, gleefully reported last week that recruitment had jumped in the wake of the terror attack, saying: “Over the past 10 days, about 16,000 citizens have signed contracts to participate in a special military operation. The majority of candidates indicated the desire to avenge those killed in the tragedy that occurred on March 22, 2024 in the Moscow region as the main motive for concluding a contract.”

In Sunday’s videos, the four suspects say they were promised safe passage over the border into the Ukraine-controlled Sumy region. That’s an improbable route, given the men would have had to pass territory teeming with Russian troops and security services, before getting to the heavily mined and constantly bombed border zone.

 

[The Z Machine]

On the notion that NK is getting info on the performance of their munitions in real battle, the same can be said for every country supplying munitions. Maybe NK has had less opportunity than the US or Russia on this front, but it still holds true.

I am interested in the lessons learned about drone, counter-drone, and EW that NATO countries are taking away from this horrific situation in Ukraine.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Military briefing: Russian ‘glide bombs’ pound Ukrainian troops and towns

Moscow retrofits ‘very scary, very lethal’ Soviet-era weapons and launches them from beyond the reach of air-defence systems

www.ft.com

The guided weapons are commonly referred to as “glide bombs” and consist of decades-old projectiles that would typically be dropped from Su-34 and Su-35 warplanes directly over targets. By adding cheap pop-out wings and a satellite navigation system, these former “dumb bombs” can now be launched by Russian bombers deep behind the front line and out of reach of Ukraine’s air-defence systems.
“For them, it is much cheaper than using hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, when one of these bombs will demolish several buildings,” said Vlad, a 27-year-old soldier serving in the eastern Donetsk region.
The glide bombs can carry between 500kg and 1.5 tonnes of explosives for over 60km, leaving craters up to 20m wide and 6m deep.
“They are very scary, very lethal,” said Bohdan, another soldier in Donetsk. “Even a kilometre away, the blast rips the doors of buildings off their hinges.”
They are so destructive that Ukrainian analysts with Deep State, a group close to the defence ministry, have called them a weapon for which Kyiv’s forces have “practically no countermeasures”.
Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told the Financial Times that his country’s soldiers “are being massively and I would say even routinely attacked by guided aerial bombs that wipe out our positions”.
The Russians have attacked Ukraine with around 3,500 such guided aerial bombs just this year, according to Ukrainian defence officials, a 16-fold increase over 2023. In the third week of March alone, Russia “launched over 700 guided aerial bombs,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
“They are very simple in essence, so you cannot jam them, you cannot hide from them — the only way to protect yourself from them is to shoot down the bomber that carries this bomb,” explained Kuleba.
Yet to achieve that, Ukraine needs significantly more modern air defence systems.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think-tank, said in a report published this month that “the growing number of glide-bomb attacks are indicative of the scarcity of air defence weapons”.

Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the sheer number of glide bombs together with their destructive force had an impact on soldiers’ morale.
“If you see the crater that two 500-kilogram bombs make, they will make an impression on you,” he said.
The head of the armed forces has also cited glide bombs as a major reason for ordering his troops to retreat from Avdiivka, which handed Moscow its first notable battlefield win in nearly a year.
“Due to constant bombardment by guided aerial bombs, the integrity of our defence was broken, which gave the enemy the opportunity to gradually advance,” Syrsky said.
Russia is now ramping up production of glide bombs and updating the 500-kilogram FAB-500 and the 1,500-kilogram FAB-1500 bombs.

Oleksiy Melnyk, a retired Ukrainian air force commander and now co-director of foreign policy and international security studies at the Razumkov Centre, a Kyiv-based think-tank, said the Russian modernisations are inexpensive compared to the high cost of many modern weapons, especially cruise missiles, which can cost several million dollars each.
While glide bombs are not as precise as ballistic cruise missiles, they can still hit “within 10 or 20 metres” of their target and cause severe damage, Melnyk said.
Experts believe Kyiv’s future successes on the battlefield may depend on its ability to defend against glide bombs. That means getting more western help, and fast.
“Kyiv is confronted by the threat that an attritional war in the air domain will increasingly favour Russia without adequate support from the US and its allies,” the IISS said.
“Ukraine’s ability to continue to counter Russian air threats and impose costs on [Russia’s air force] remains important to the outcome of the war.”

Source: Russia lost 7 aircraft in Ukraine's April 5 attack on air base

The HUR source said the Ukrainian drone attack damaged four Russian Sukhoi Su-30SM fighter jets, two transport aircraft, and one Beriev Be-200 Altair.

kyivindependent.com

Russia lost seven military aircraft during Ukraine's April 5 drone attack on the Yeysk air base in Krasnodar Krai, a source at Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) told the Kyiv Independent on April 7.

Ukrainian forces attacked three Russian airfields on April 5 with unidentified drones. The joint operation of military intelligence and the Armed Forces hit the Yeysk, Engels-2, and Kursk airfields.

The HUR source said the Ukrainian drone attack damaged four Russian Sukhoi Su-30SM fighter jets, two transport aircraft, and one Beriev Be-200 Altair.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1777210985813573835

From a battalion commander with Ukraine's 59th Motorized Brigade from 2 weeks ago,
"what is needed now are people...Because even young guys can’t stand to spend two years in the trenches, their health is not good enough. And in our army, the average age is probably 40-42. Because we don’t have young people going to war, we have men who are over 40. A lot of them leave for health reasons… And fewer come back for various reasons. And this is the main reason why there are not enough people.
If there were more people, it would be much easier for those guys in the trenches, because they would know that they have been in the trenches for two days and then gone on a break for two days. But now he has to sit more. And because of this, morale is already declining, it’s harder."

"The Need for People Is Extremely Acute": a Commander About the Situation in the Avdiivka Direction

The journalists of Slidstvo.Info met with "Condor" near Avdiivka, where his unit has been conducting defence for a year, and talked about the intensity of Russian attacks, Russia's goals in this area and the lack of people in his unit.

slidstvo.info

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1777334962523357250

| Reuters: Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and outages, according to three industry sources.

One of the sources said a deal on using reserves for Russia has already been agreed. Russian and Kazakhstan's energy ministries did not immediately reply to requests for comments.

https://reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1777350826987553099

Rare video of the launch of a Ukrainian S-125 surface-to-air missile against a Russian aerial target.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1777346121196540265

Russian sappers are claiming to use light "Scorpion" UGV for ISR and demining ops. This UGV was first unveiled back in 2020 as a redesign of light sapper UGVs used in Syria.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1776992885780390350

Jet drone spotted over Belgorod region of Russia. Drone resembles the one from the attached post.

 

[beer 30]

How long until Ukraine starts targeting civilian infrastructure in Russia like Russia is doing to them? Destroying power plants and the like? I guess they are using their attack drones to hit military targets only thus far.

Waiting for their handlers to ok it be my guess.

 

[themeistersinger]

Are Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Oil Refineries Hindering Russia’s War Machine? - The Moscow Times

Ukraine has escalated its drone attacks on Russian oil refineries since the beginning of the year in an effort to cripple Russia's economy and constrain fuel supplies to its military.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Putinism Is Set to Live On in Russia’s Youth - The Moscow Times

Opinion | Is it possible to predict the political future of the next generation of Russians, whom the Kremlin is counting on to adopt its ultranationalist beliefs and march into positions of power that will cement the hold of Putinist politics for years to come?

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia Is Descending into the Dark Ages Through Normalizing Violence - The Moscow Times

Opinion | The videos of masked men shooting at members of the audience in the Crocus City Hall concert venue were unbearable to watch.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia’s Terrorism Laws Target Everyone But the Real Threat - The Moscow Times

Opinion | Anti-extremism legislation, and anti-terrorism legislation even more so, are hardly unique to Russia.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Chadstroma]

How long until Ukraine starts targeting civilian infrastructure in Russia like Russia is doing to them? Destroying power plants and the like? I guess they are using their attack drones to hit military targets only thus far.

Waiting for their handlers to ok it be my guess.

I am a little surprised that there hasn't been sabotage of the rail lines leading towards the front. It seems to me something within the Ukrainian capabilities and would strain the Russian logistics which relies heavily on rail.

For other targets, it actually makes sense to me to continue to attack them with drones. Even with limited success on these attacks, it does force the Russians to harden numerous locations which is a strain on their capabilities, equipment and trained personnel. If they don't then they remain open to attack, if they do, then it is pulling resources from the front.

The Ukrainians have to be very careful with civilian infrastructure attacks for a few reasons. First, their allies supplying them are very nervous of attacks on Russian soil which is a big reason some weapons were delayed and some are still withheld which could be used to effect in the war zone but also could be used to attack Russian territory and the allies don't want any of their equipment used for that. Second, the PR side of this for both the Russian, Ukrainian and world viewpoints. For Russians, the Ukrainians don't want a popular mobilization because Russians feel they have been attacked. The more that they can keep Russians non-motivated and the losses continue to mount, then the more pressure is placed on the Russian state. It is probably why they rail lines have been left alone for the most part. It is a very sensitive area that the Ukrainians have to be very careful over in decisions on what they attack. Thus most of the attacks have been military bases and oil industry (which the oil industry is getting having the Ukrainians get pressured by the US and others because of the impact on the price of oil).

 

[themeistersinger]

How long until Ukraine starts targeting civilian infrastructure in Russia like Russia is doing to them? Destroying power plants and the like? I guess they are using their attack drones to hit military targets only thus far.

Waiting for their handlers to ok it be my guess.

I am a little surprised that there hasn't been sabotage of the rail lines leading towards the front. It seems to me something within the Ukrainian capabilities and would strain the Russian logistics which relies heavily on rail.

For other targets, it actually makes sense to me to continue to attack them with drones. Even with limited success on these attacks, it does force the Russians to harden numerous locations which is a strain on their capabilities, equipment and trained personnel. If they don't then they remain open to attack, if they do, then it is pulling resources from the front.

The Ukrainians have to be very careful with civilian infrastructure attacks for a few reasons. First, their allies supplying them are very nervous of attacks on Russian soil which is a big reason some weapons were delayed and some are still withheld which could be used to effect in the war zone but also could be used to attack Russian territory and the allies don't want any of their equipment used for that. Second, the PR side of this for both the Russian, Ukrainian and world viewpoints. For Russians, the Ukrainians don't want a popular mobilization because Russians feel they have been attacked. The more that they can keep Russians non-motivated and the losses continue to mount, then the more pressure is placed on the Russian state. It is probably why they rail lines have been left alone for the most part. It is a very sensitive area that the Ukrainians have to be very careful over in decisions on what they attack. Thus most of the attacks have been military bases and oil industry (which the oil industry is getting having the Ukrainians get pressured by the US and others because of the impact on the price of oil).

The problem with attacking rail lines is they are fairly easy to repair. If you can hit the line when a train is on it then that could be extremely valuable, which is one reason for wanting to get within regular artillery range of the line, but using missiles against rail lines is generally not cost effective.

With regard to attacks into Russia proper, Ukraine is using drones that they built themselves, thus weapons suppliers don't have as much leverage to tell them to cool it. As far as I know they have not used any allied-provided weapons to attack outside what were the previously recognized boundaries of Ukraine prior to the Russian annexation of Crimea.

 

[Chadstroma]

How long until Ukraine starts targeting civilian infrastructure in Russia like Russia is doing to them? Destroying power plants and the like? I guess they are using their attack drones to hit military targets only thus far.

Waiting for their handlers to ok it be my guess.

I am a little surprised that there hasn't been sabotage of the rail lines leading towards the front. It seems to me something within the Ukrainian capabilities and would strain the Russian logistics which relies heavily on rail.

For other targets, it actually makes sense to me to continue to attack them with drones. Even with limited success on these attacks, it does force the Russians to harden numerous locations which is a strain on their capabilities, equipment and trained personnel. If they don't then they remain open to attack, if they do, then it is pulling resources from the front.

The Ukrainians have to be very careful with civilian infrastructure attacks for a few reasons. First, their allies supplying them are very nervous of attacks on Russian soil which is a big reason some weapons were delayed and some are still withheld which could be used to effect in the war zone but also could be used to attack Russian territory and the allies don't want any of their equipment used for that. Second, the PR side of this for both the Russian, Ukrainian and world viewpoints. For Russians, the Ukrainians don't want a popular mobilization because Russians feel they have been attacked. The more that they can keep Russians non-motivated and the losses continue to mount, then the more pressure is placed on the Russian state. It is probably why they rail lines have been left alone for the most part. It is a very sensitive area that the Ukrainians have to be very careful over in decisions on what they attack. Thus most of the attacks have been military bases and oil industry (which the oil industry is getting having the Ukrainians get pressured by the US and others because of the impact on the price of oil).

The problem with attacking rail lines is they are fairly easy to repair. If you can hit the line when a train is on it then that could be extremely valuable, which is one reason for wanting to get within regular artillery range of the line, but using missiles against rail lines is generally not cost effective.

With regard to attacks into Russia proper, Ukraine is using drones that they built themselves, thus weapons suppliers don't have as much leverage to tell them to cool it. As far as I know they have not used any allied-provided weapons to attack outside what were the previously recognized boundaries of Ukraine prior to the Russian annexation of Crimea.

For attacks on the rail lines, I was referring to sabotage.

Yes, the attacks on Russian soil have all been from Ukrainian weapons. However, a significant reason for the Germans withholding the Taurus long range cruise missiles is the fear of them being used on Russian soil. This was the case for other weapon systems that eventually were given to them such as HIMARS which was delayed and only sent with restrictions placed on their use such as not being to attack Russian soil.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

War in Ukraine: The battle of the killer drones

Russia and Ukraine are fighting it out in the technological race to reduce the threat of FPV drones on the front, and Ukrainian manufacturers have entered the battle.

www.lemonde.fr

Protective force fields, invisible shields that sound like the stuff of science fiction, are a reality on Ukraine’s battlefields. Depending on their strength, frequency and distance from the target, they are capable of paralyzing a kamikaze drone as it hurtles towards its target. Known as domes or REB (the acronym given to radio electronic combat in Ukrainian and Russian), there's nothing esoteric about these magnetic fields. They are frequency jammers and part of the electromagnetic spectrum's (EMS) arsenal.
The Ukrainian army desperately needs more domes to protect its troops and front-line equipment. And a handful of specialized Ukrainian manufacturers are seeking technological, industrial and financial solutions to meet this demand.
Domes became crucial in the summer of 2023, when first person view (FPV) drones (quadcopter kamikazes) began being used on a massive scale on both sides of the battle. Loitering munitions are inexpensive, costing between €300 and €1,000 each, and are capable of striking any target with pinpoint accuracy – whether that's a soldier in a trench, an advancing tank or an ambulance racing to the rear. Drone units on both sides often post videos on social media of their successful attacks, showing a soldier being ripped to shreds or an armored vehicle exploding into a fireball.
As a result, it has become extremely dangerous to move around within the 10-kilometer strip of land along the line of contact. FPV drones work in conjunction with a constellation of observation drones, which (except in bad weather) are constantly flying over the enemy rear. Due to the constant presence of sensors (including infrared in the dark), the battlefield has become almost transparent. Personnel rotation, logistics and evacuations are now much riskier operations than they were a year ago, when operations were headed by the artillery. Several Ukrainian commanders interviewed by Le Monde confirmed that Russian FPV drones are the main cause of casualties in their ranks.
"The front is overrun with small drones such as DJI Mavics [a leading manufacturer of quadcoptors in China]," said 29-year-old Oleksiy Tcherniouk, the vice-president of Kvertus. one of Ukraine's three main signal jammers. A man with a cheerful face and lively eyes, Tcherniouk spoke from his office in Kyiv and stressed that the results of FPV UAVs are as spectacular as electronic warfare (EW) weapons are invisible.
There are no videos of drones crashing as a result of jamming. The EMS transmits frequencies that form a spectral haze around the target until they cut off the radio signal from the pilot to the drone, as well as the video signal from the drone to the pilot. Unable to steer autonomously, the FPV drone either drops like a stone or follows a random trajectory.

To achieve this result, Kvertus has designed a range of devices, which like artillery are either transportable or fixed, depending on their power and range. The smallest, to be deployed by a soldier, vaguely resembles a rifle with antennae that are aimed at a target already visually identified. Another, heavier model, about the size of a shoebox, is designed to be carried in a special backpack by an infantryman in the field with his unit. Once activated, the model scans 360° (hence the name dome) over a radius of up to 600 meters.
"Range also depends on the strength of the signal emitted by the pilot. The further the drone is from the pilot, the weaker the signal and the easier it is to jam it," Tcherniouk explained. Another fundamental parameter of electronic warfare lies in controlling the frequency spectrum used by drones. "Our EMS jams the tuning fork [frequency] used by 80% of Russian drones," he added.
A larger model can be mounted on vehicles. All transportable EMS require robust batteries, that are sometimes heavier than the equipment itself. According to Tcherniouk, the EMS actions, although invisible, are quantifiable: "We get daily reports from the front on the number of enemy drones that have failed. If a unit informs us that the Russians are using new frequencies, we send modules capable of jamming them." To bypass the defense ministry’s bureaucracy, Kvertus has established direct links with the front-line brigades, who place orders and need a responsive "after-sales service".
After landing its first major order from the defense ministry, two years after the Russian invasion, the company has been able to act on evaluative feedback. “Over the past two years, we've increased our production tenfold, to several thousand units per month," said the manager. "Our army needs hundreds of thousands of jammers to protect the entire length of the front line. If someone orders 100,000 units from us, we can manufacture them."

Ukraine’s invisible fortifications have to cope with the dense EMS mesh already deployed by Russia, which has the advantage of numerical superiority in electronic warfare along with the rest of its arsenal . According to a report by the UK's Royal United Services Institute think tank, Russian forces have deployed static EMS every 10 kilometers along the front line, including the Shipovnik-Aero, which is said to be capable of taking control of a drone within a 10-kilometer radius, while accurately obtaining its pilot’s position within one meter.
While acknowledging Russia’s superior strength, the other main Ukrainian player in the sector pointed out that EMS weapons on both sides of the front are subject to rapid obsolescence. "Most systems are outdated after four months, as they are soon parried by the adversary," said Yaroslav Kalinin, 39, the CEO of Infozahyst. Speaking from his company's headquarters, he listed several Russian EMS weapons that are "highly sophisticated and powerful," but are also bulky and easily detected by Ukrainian electronic intelligence, and therefore vulnerable. "The Russians can't use them and are looking to miniaturize them."
Infozahyst has developed a range of EMS weapons comparable to those of Kvertus, and is banking on a modular, scalable design to remain relevant for as long as possible on the battlefield. "In Ukraine, we have opted for the SWaP-C (Size, Weight, Power and Cost) concept to improve EMS longevity. I'm under the impression that Westerners haven't realized its importance," said Kalinin.
He predicts that the FPV drone will be a "global security threat that will escalate when artificial intelligence is applied to drones. It will then be very difficult to protect airports and train stations, even in the heart of Europe".

Colonel: Fears of Ukraine's defenses failing have been needless

Even though Russia is on the offensive in Eastern Ukraine, their successes have so far been marginal and the Ukrainian defenses have held, Lt. Col. Toomas Väli told "Ukraina stuudio" Sunday.

news.err.ee

"The front line is still stuck near Avdiivka. That said, the Russians are keeping up the pressure and pace on the Luhansk and Donetsk headings and are likely looking to push to the borders of the Donetsk Oblast. Their success so far has been marginal and there have not been major breakthroughs."

The colonel said that Russian forces have tried interesting tactical solutions to try and effect a breakthrough. For example, the media reported on a major tank offensive last week.

"It is clear that they're trying for a breakthrough. The ground can support larger machinery," Väli said, adding that these attempts are taking place around Avdiivka and west of Bakhmut.

The lieutenant colonel also said that Russia's considerable losses have left analysts scratching their heads.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1777657076904337798

“Worker shortage is restraining production, says Russia's central bank”

Shortage of skilled labor is probably a bigger impediment to Russia’s defense sector than sanctions. Many key firms want to hire hundreds or thousands of additional workers.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

How American Drones Failed to Turn the Tide in Ukraine

Most small drones from U.S. startups have failed to perform in combat, dashing companies’ hopes that a badge of being battle-tested would bring the startups sales and attention. It is also bad news for the Pentagon, which needs a reliable supply of thousands of small, unmanned aircraft.

In the first war to feature small drones prominently, American companies still have no meaningful presence. Made-in-America drones tend to be expensive, glitchy and hard to repair, said drone company executives, Ukrainians on the front lines, Ukrainian government officials and former U.S. defense officials.

Absent solutions from the West, Ukraine has turned to cheaper Chinese products to fill its drone arsenal.

“The general reputation for every class of U.S. drone in Ukraine is that they don’t work as well as other systems,” Skydio Chief Executive Adam Bry said, calling his own drone “not a very successful platform on the front lines.”

There has been a deluge of venture capital invested in startups trying to build small, AI-powered aircraft, hoping to sell them to the U.S. government. Startups have focused on commercial drones that can be built faster and cheaper than the large military drones made by traditional defense contractors. Nearly 300 U.S.-based drone-technology companies raised a total of around $2.5 billion in venture-capital funding in the past two years, according to the data firm PitchBook.

Ukrainian officials have found U.S.-made drones fragile and unable to overcome Russian jamming and GPS blackout technology. At times, they couldn’t take off, complete missions or return home. American drones often fail to fly at the distances advertised or carry substantial payloads.

Small American drones for the battlefield “have been underdeveloped,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at Ukraine’s Come Back Alive, a charity that has supplied more than 30,000 drones to the military.
American drone company executives say they didn’t anticipate the electronic warfare in Ukraine. In Skydio’s case, its drone was designed in 2019 to meet communications standards set by the U.S. military. Several startup executives said U.S. restrictions on drone parts and testing limit what they can build and how fast they can build it.

Those restrictions have proven a problem in the drone battles that sometimes require daily updates and upgrades, said Georgii Dubynskyi, Ukraine’s deputy minister of digital transformation, the agency that oversees the country’s drone program.

“What is flying today won’t be able to fly tomorrow,” he said. “We have to adapt to the emerging technologies quickly. The innovation cycle in this war is very short.”

Ukrainian forces are burning through about 10,000 drones a month, which they couldn’t afford if they had to buy expensive U.S. drones. Many American commercial drones cost tens of thousands of dollars more each than a Chinese model.

Less than a month after Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Pentagon approved the supply of Switchblade 300 drones from the Virginia-based defense contractor AeroVironment. The Switchblades faced initial challenges with Russia’s electronic-warfare systems, according to a former U.S. soldier who worked with the drones in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1778039460879335846

The commanders of Ukraine’s “South” and “West” operational commands, Major Generals Andriy Kovalchuk and Serhii Litvinov, were reportedly dismissed.

Кадрові зміни в ЗСУ. Звільнено командувачів ОК "Південь" та "Захід", - джерела

Подробиці читайте на сайті

rbc.ua

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1778028770479263944

The Ukrainian military will incorporate the UA DroneID system into the DELTA battlefield management and situational awareness system. UA DroneID is designed to identify friendly/hostile UAVs & help commanders decide which UAVs are best suited for specific missions. It’s reportedly been tested in combat.

As Fedorov noted, this is part of Ukraine’s recently launched effort to update the DELTA system, including to allow commanders to allocate frequencies between UAV units.

Ukraineâs Defence Ministry unveils advanced technology enhancing drone capabilities

The Defence Ministry of Ukraine has signed a memorandum on developing the innovative technology UA DroneID, the feature within the DELTA ecosystem, which will help identify both friendly and hostile drones. It has already been tested in combat conditions against strike drones.

pravda.com.ua

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s Cheap Drones Are Decimating Russia’s Tanks

But experts say they’re not a long-term solution to a lack of artillery rounds.

foreignpolicy.com

More than two-thirds of the Russian tanks that Ukraine’s military has destroyed in recent months have been taken out using first-person-view (FPV) drones, a NATO official told Foreign Policy, an increasing sign of Kyiv’s reliance on the unpiloted aircraft as it awaits more artillery ammunition from the United States and other Western countries.
With much-needed funding and artillery rounds held up in Washington, the Ukrainian military has largely turned to FPV drones to carry out anti-tank attacks. Ukrainian troops operate the drones via a controller and are able to watch the machines’ “suicide” attacks on Russian vehicles through video feeds, which now play on a loop on Ukrainian social media channels on Telegram and other platforms.
In the third year of Russia’s full-scale invasion, FPV drones have become nearly ubiquitous on the Ukrainian battlefield. Many of them can carry 10 pounds of explosives or more, and after nearly 780 days of nonstop war, drone pilots on both sides have gotten plenty of practice.

Analysts tracking the Ukrainian military believe the attacks are having mixed results. Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia program who last traveled to Ukraine to embed last November, said the overall accuracy of FPV drones is less than 50 percent. It’s an experienced pilot who is going to score a “kill” of a tank—and the soldiers inside—with an FPV drone, not a newbie.
Even those drones that get through Russia’s increasingly sophisticated, if unchic, countermeasures—boxes of signals equipment strapped to tanks—might not deal a fatal blow. “You usually don’t kill a tank the first few times,” Lee said. “It can take 10 or more [FPV drones] to kill a tank.”
Still, Russia has a good reason to cover up its tanks with camouflage and jamming equipment, Lee said. It is running low on armored vehicles and tanks. If Ukraine keeps attriting at this rate and Russia keeps sending in more tanks to replace the destroyed ones at the rate it has been, the Kremlin could lose its numerical edge in tanks, which could make it more difficult for the Russians to carry out offensive operations in the future.
But Russia still has more troops. “The issue is that Russia’s getting a lot of manpower,” Lee added.
The all-out use of cheap drones indicates that the Ukrainians are turning to increasingly desperate measures to improvise weapons to fight back the Russian assault, which has moved farther west into the contested areas of Donetsk. Ukraine is using a network of microphones—similar to the one you might find on your iPhone—to sense incoming targets. The microphones are good enough to classify what type of munition is coming in, what direction it’s going, and what trajectory it’s on just by using acoustics.
And with limited air defense munitions, Ukrainian troops have rigged heavy machines with sensors to shoot down most of the Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones that are overflying their positions. The NATO official, speaking anonymously based on conditions set by the alliance, said Ukraine’s hit rate against Shahed drones with simple machine guns and small caliber weapons is about 80 percent. It’s not a complete fix, though: Ukrainian officials have spent recent days urging the United States to send more Patriot air defense systems.

And the FPV drones are not a match for artillery ammunition when it comes to keeping up a high rate of fire or for creating explosive effects. They can also be more expensive. “You cannot replace a 155 [mm] shell,” one Ukrainian official said. “It’s like replacing a Kalashnikov with a small gun.” And artillery is immune to electronic warfare. It’s just a bombshell that’s flying through the air.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1777997637393784843

Very impressive, though also important to know what proportion were first immobilised by other means, such as mines, artillery and anti-tank missiles. Strike drones increasingly important as part of a combined-arms system.

https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1778003873346793925

Also very reflective of what kit is available. If you mostly have strike drones, most of your kills will be with strike drones.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1778005645511348236

No doubt, though I think the interesting question is: would you now have more unusable Russian tanks if Ukraine had fewer tactical strike drones and more of other strike systems, other things being equal (though I appreciate they never are on a battlefield)?

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Good podcast here from Kofman and Lee on drones. Would recommend:

Mike Kofman and Rob Lee on Drones in Ukraine - War on the Rocks

This deep and fascinating conversation is one of a two-part discussion that you can listen to on the Russia Contingency, a members-only podcast hosted by

warontherocks.com

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-sell-missile-defense-upgrades-ukraine-2024-04-09/

The United States will sell Ukraine up to $138 million worth of equipment to maintain and upgrade its HAWK air defense systems to help defend against Russian drone and cruise missile attacks, a U.S. State Department official told Reuters on Tuesday.

With recruits dwindling, Ukraine is urged to mobilise women

Chief military adviser for gender issues says adopting Israel-style female conscription policy is necessary to tackle recruitment shortage

www.thetimes.co.uk

But as the country grapples with the task of recruiting hundreds of thousands of men this year, Oksana Grigorieva, adviser on gender issues to the commander of the ground forces, said that Ukraine should prepare for the fact that women too will have to be mobilised in the coming years.

Of those women serving in Ukraine’s military, less than a tenth are in active combat roles with the remainder working as medics, intelligence officers and administrators. It was only in 2018 that women were allowed to take up combat positions.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1778071738514911266

This is a shared view across US and its allies:

The commander of US European Command said that Ukraine “will not be able to prevail” in the war against Russia without continued US support this year.

“The severity of this moment cannot be overstated,” Gen. Chris Cavoli told the House Armed Services Committee. “If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose.”

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1778075121875296381

Gen. Chris Cavoli, commander of US European Command, tells HASC that the Russians are currently firing 5 times as many artillery shells as the Ukrainians on the battlefield, and that number will go up to 10 to 1 “in a matter of weeks" as the Ukrainians continue to ration.

"We're not talking about months, we're not talking hypothetically," he said.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1778083916055740750

Ukrainian commanders who I interviewed at the front in Donetsk oblast last week said for artillery right now it’s “at least 5:1,” Russian:Ukrainian. And “more like 6:1, 7:1.”

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1778123680209400026

Not everyone in US govt is on board. I’ve been speaking to some people here in Kyiv involved in the long range programme. They say their US contacts are winking while warning. “They’re privately telling us to keep going.”

 

[The Z Machine]

Wth with the US unable to support Ukraine here. It's totally baffling to me.

 

[Chadstroma]

Wth with the US unable to support Ukraine here. It's totally baffling to me.

We really can't discuss it or we will get slapped around again for talking forbidden subject matter. But I will say that it is a huge mistake and extremely frustrating. Though it is not too late to reverse this and shore up the Ukrainians again.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Air Force Has Lost 10 Percent of Fleet in Ukraine

The Russian air force has lost just one-tenth of its fleet, the top U.S. commander in Europe Gen. Christopher Cavoli told Congress April 10.

www.airandspaceforces.com

The Russian air force has lost just one-tenth of its fleet while many of its military capabilities remain largely unaffected after more than two years of war in Ukraine, the top U.S. commander in Europe told Congress on April 10.

“We do not see significant losses in the air domain, especially their long-range and strategic aviation fleets,” Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing.

“Russia’s strategic forces, long-range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10 percent of their fleet,” Cavoli added in his written testimony to the committee.

In the long term, Russia is striving to develop its global capabilities. Russia has poured resources into its nuclear forces. It is also looking to expand its conventional ground forces in the years ahead. To do so, Russia has raised the upper age for conscription from 27 to 30, which has enlarged the pool of potential conscripts by 2 million. It is also planning to restructure ground forces so that it can deploy new formations in Ukraine and opposite Finland, Cavoli told lawmakers.

“Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested,” Cavoli said. “The army is actually now larger—by 15 percent—than it was when it invaded Ukraine.”

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1778429690568442176

Ukraine has sunk more than 20% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Gen. Chris Cavoli, the commander of US European Command told lawmakers today.

“But more to the point, they've damaged critical infrastructure associated with [the fleet’s] sustenance and its maintenance,” Cavoli said. “And the net effect has been, we do not see Russian surface ships, west of Crimea, ever anymore.”

https://twitter.com/x1skv/status/1778410884164939907

Russia's factories rush to buy drone defense equipment

- Since the start of it's invasion of Ukraine Russia more than doubled output of anti-drone-related equipment, based on industrial stats

- EW equipment isn’t invincible against drone attacks, but can limit damage

https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1778428497251164224

Russia today published its Mar '24 current account surplus. At +$13.4 bn, it's the biggest since Dec '22, i.e. since the G7 cap began. The EU chose to protect Greek shipping oligarchs over enforcing the G7 cap. Now Putin is rolling in cash, while Ukraine fights for survival...

France talks tough on Ukraine while gobbling up more Russian gas

France has paid Russia over €600 million this year for liquefied natural gas, new data shows. That’s an EU-leading rise from last year.

www.politico.eu

Such grumbling is percolating across Europe as new data reveals France quietly ramping up gas payments to Russia just as President Emmanuel Macron loudly positions himself as one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders.

In the first three months of this year, Russian liquified natural gas deliveries to France grew more than to any other country in the EU compared to last year, according to data analyzed by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) think tank for POLITICO.

In all, Paris has paid over €600 million to the Kremlin for gas supplies since the start of the year, the data showed — leading to calls for France to clamp down on its rising purchases.

“It cannot be that France, on the one hand, says that we have to be harsh with Russia and on the other hand, is paying them off with big money,” said a diplomat from one EU country, who like others for this story, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Ukraine’s parliament approves new mobilization law despite criticism from battle-worn troops

The legislation, which still awaits President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s signature, offers no respite for the country’s exhausted soldiers.

www.politico.eu

After one failed attempt and more than three months of discussion, the Ukrainian parliament voted Thursday in favor of a new law giving the government more power to mobilize society for war and punish draft-dodgers, but offering little respite for its war-weary troops.

The legislation, which must be signed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to become law, allows military recruitment offices to sue people who evade mandatory conscription and stiffens punishments for those who do not show up to their draft summons on time. It also obliges local governments and police to help the military in mobilization efforts.

The bill also calls for all men of fighting age, which was recently decreased from 27 to 25, to show up for medical examination and renew their data in local conscription offices. Ukrainian men living abroad also have to update their contact number and address online.

Russia strikes Ukrainian infrastructure in major missile and drone attack

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that Russia fired more than 40 missiles and 40 drones at Ukraine overnight, again hitting the city of Kharkiv and targeting “critical infrastructure”…

www.france24.com

Kyiv reported a “massive” attack on the country’s major facilities, but said that so far nobody has been reported killed.

“Overnight, Russia fired more than 40 missiles and 40 drones at Ukraine,” Zelensky said on X.

“Some missiles and ‘Shahed’ drones were successfully shot down. Unfortunately, only a part of them,” he added.

“There was another vile missile attack on Kharkiv and the Kharkiv region,” he said. The northeastern city has been pounded by Russian attacks—some deadly—in recent weeks.

Zelensky said infrastructure facilities were also targeted in Kyiv, the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Odesa in the south, and the western city of Lviv, near the Polish border.

 

[higgins]

@themeistersinger , @Don't Toews Me Thanks a LOT for what you guys do here!

 

[Chadstroma]

MSN

And on top of what they have been buying from the US, they have made huge acquisitions of South Korean equipment as well. A 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks (a top tier tank for sure), 200+ K9 self propelled howitzers and a number of FA-50 light attack aircraft.

Poland is replacing the British, French and Germans as being THE non-American power in NATO.

 

[The Z Machine]

MSN

And on top of what they have been buying from the US, they have made huge acquisitions of South Korean equipment as well. A 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks (a top tier tank for sure), 200+ K9 self propelled howitzers and a number of FA-50 light attack aircraft.

Poland is replacing the British, French and Germans as being THE non-American power in NATO.

Sounds like they don't want to get invaded (again) any time soon.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian Orthodox Church declares “Holy War” against Ukraine and West

The Russian Orthodox Church has approved a remarkable new document that declares a holy war against Ukraine and the wider Western world, writes Brian Mefford.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[themeistersinger]

Western weakness in Ukraine could provoke a far bigger war with Russia

Western leaders must decide whether they would rather arm Ukraine for victory today or fight a resurgent and emboldened Russia tomorrow, writes Oleksiy Goncharenko.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Attacks on Ukraine Stoke Fears Army Near Breaking Point

Russia’s missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, the bombardment of its second-largest city and advances along the front are stoking worries that Kyiv’s military effort is nearing breaking point.

www.bloomberg.com

Russia’s missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, the bombardment of its second-largest city and advances along the front are stoking worries that Kyiv’s military effort is nearing breaking point.
A dire shortage of ammunition and manpower along the 1,200-kilometer (930 mile) front and gaps in air defense show that Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war, according to Western officials with knowledge of the situation.
The risk is a collapse of Ukrainian defenses, an event that would give Kremlin an opening to make a major advance for the first time since the initial stages of the conflict, at least one official said.
The next few months will amount to Ukraine’s toughest test, with a public growing exhausted of war, especially in the city of Kharkiv in the country’s east, which has been particularly targeted.
Krystyna Malieieva, who fled the city after Russia invaded and then returned, said the unpredictability of the attacks have struck fear into city residents, even if most don’t believe the Kremlin can take a metropolis whose prewar population was 1.5 million.
“There is very depressive mood in Kharkiv now,” Malieieva, the owner of a family center who returned in 2023 after a year in Croatia and the UK, said in an interview. “People started to return last year, new restaurants opened — and now I see people are fleeing again.”

Russian forces are benefiting from a widening gap in ammunition supplies, with Moscow set to secure 6 million shells this year with ramped-up production and supplies from North Korea and Iran, according to one official.

The US doesn’t see any signs of an imminent breakthrough by Russian forces, a US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. But Ukraine’s morale is low and the possibility of a collapse in its army can’t be ruled out, another official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1778760212767248890

grim reading from Estonia's main internal intelligence agency: "Russia will likely continue its efforts to incite societal tensions in neighboring countries in coming years and can be expected to use any measures that stop short of triggering NATO’s collective defence clause."

US proposes debt to fund Ukraine using profits from frozen Russian assets

Hope that Washington’s idea could generate tens of billions in cash for Kyiv

www.ft.com

The US has proposed raising tens of billions of euros in debt for Ukraine secured against the future profits generated by Russian state assets that have been frozen by western countries.
The G7 group of nations has been split on what to do with €260bn worth of Russian assets put on hold by the west since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Washington has backed the idea of confiscating the reserves in their entirety and handing them to Ukraine, an idea European officials fear could violate international law and destabilise financial markets. EU countries would prefer to only give Kyiv the profits generated by the underlying assets.
But the issue of using Russian reserves to help Kyiv has become more urgent in recent months, with the war now in its third year and additional US aid to Ukraine held up in Congress.
“We’re at a point in which we should explore every possible avenue to maximise the value of the immobilised reserves for Ukraine,” Daleep Singh, US deputy national security adviser for international economics, said in Kyiv on Wednesday. “We can’t wait forever, we know that.”

One big advantage of the US idea is that it would generate more funds upfront for Ukraine.
A European official said a bond could deliver between €30bn and €40bn based on the estimated profits from the Russian funds in Euroclear over the next 10 years, and €50bn-€60bn in profits over the next 15-20 years. They cautioned, however, that this was heavily dependent on future interest rates.
“These simulations are more or less reliable for one year and then you have to see. You really have to be careful,” the official said.
But officials in one major EU country have asked what would happen to a bond secured against 10 years of interest payments from impounded Russian assets if the war were to end in a couple of years and the assets unfrozen and handed back to Russia under a peace settlement.
The G7 states could back the bond with a state guarantee, as a way of reassuring private investors, the officials said. But they cautioned that such a move might be open to legal challenge in some states.

IEA Warns Attacks on Russia Refineries May Disrupt Diesel Market

The flurry of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s oil refineries risks disrupting global markets for petroleum products, the International Energy Agency said.

www.bloomberg.com

The flurry of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s oil refineries risks disrupting global markets for petroleum products, the International Energy Agency said.
Ukrainian drones have ramped up attacks on Russia’s oil industry this year in an attempt to disrupt fuel supplies to the military and curb the Kremlin’s revenue. About 500,000 to 600,000 barrels a day of the country’s crude processing capacity could be offline this quarter on a gross basis, before offsets, according to the IEA’s monthly report.
The shutdown of damaged refineries or units of between four to eight weeks for repairs “could mean a significant loss” of Russian oil-product exports, the Paris-based agency said on Friday. International markets “rely on Russian exports of diesel, naphtha and jet fuel, while refining systems in Asia absorb substantial quantities of the country’s straight-run and cracked residue to boost upgrading unit feedstocks.”

So far the actual drop in refinery runs was much lower. Russia’s official weekly refinery output data through late March is consistent with crude runs at 5 million to 5.2 million barrels a day, rather than the 4.6 million barrels a day that a bottom-up assessment of the refinery outages would indicate, according to the IEA.
Some of the nation’s facilities have been relatively quick to repair the damaged equipment. Only Rosneft PJSC’s Tuapse refinery near the Black Sea — attacked in late January — remains offline, but it isn’t clear whether that’s due to the drone strike or initial planned maintenance. It’s likely to resume operations in mid-May, the IEA said, citing reports.
Russia’s refiners have also deployed spare or underused crude-processing units to mitigate the impact of drone attacks before the uptick in seasonal demand. “It seems reasonable that the Russian refining system is large enough that some outages could be offset by the deferral of planned maintenance or increased runs elsewhere in the system,” the IEA said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-drones-damage-energy-infrastructure-south-2024-04-12/

Attacks by Russian drones in southern Ukraine overnight caused a fire at an energy facility in Dnipropetrovsk region and damaged critical infrastructure in Kherson region, Ukrainian authorities said on Friday.
Ukraine forces shot down 16 out of 17 drones. Russia also used one Kh-59 guided air missile for the attack, the Ukrainian military said via Telegram messaging app.
Drone debris caused a fire at the energy facility, which was not identified. The emergency services have put out the fire, according to a Friday morning statement from Serhiy Lysak, Dnipropetrovsk's region governor. No casualties were reported by the military or local officials.