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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (5 Viewers)

I started looking for some citations for the "BA.2.12.1 antibodies protect against BA.4/5" thing. I haven't found the easy-breezy layman's explanation in a link yet ...
All right, here we go. This isn't the exact same thing I had read, but it covers the same ground and is aimed at the layman. Keep in mind as you read this that this was published over a month ago, and that the U.S. has not had a surge in BA.5 cases at the same level of, say, western European nations. They had pronounced BA.5 "hills" in their May-June 2022 case-count curves while the U.S. case-count curve stayed largely stable** for another three weeks after this article was written :

What to Know About the Newest, Most Contagious Omicron Subvariants (Time, 6/15/2022)

It’s unclear which strain will dominate the U.S. next

Luo and other experts are watching to identify whether one or two of these concerning Omicron subvariants will outcompete the others. While BA.4 and BA.5 have driven new COVID-19 surges in other countries, these subvariants have yet to compete directly with BA.2.12.1. Early data from the U.K. suggest BA.4 and BA.5 may spread slightly faster than BA.2.12.1, but the landscape is unclear.

BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.12.1 are all “competing for the same people, because they kind of have the same advantage,” Johnson says. His team’s Missouri wastewater surveillance network is showing that BA.4 and BA.5 are causing more cases in some places, while BA.2.12.1 is causing more cases in others. However, the regions dominated by BA.2.12.1 are showing more of an increase in cases, he says. This pattern contradicts other reports of BA.4 and BA.5 taking over from BA.2.12.1.

Different versions of Omicron could become the dominant strains in different parts of the country, Bieniasz says. For example, in the Northeast, where a BA.2.12.1-driven surge appears to have already reached its peak, BA.4 and BA.5 may gain less of a foothold, while they become more prevalent in the South and West.
** and yes, the U.S. case count curve has been rising steadily the last two weeks as BA.5 has become dominant. However, the shape of the U.S. curve over the last few weeks shows, so far, only a gentle rise and not the sharper "steep hill" shaped curve other nations have experienced from BA.5.

 
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Its over people. Haven't you damaged your immune systems enough? Watch  it and weep.

Fraud fauci calling for 'vaccines' that prevent infection now. He knew, as well that it never worked. birx admitting it never worked. Are ya still believing the last lie of 'it was only ment to lessen symptoms. Oops, wrong. 

They lied to the public from day 1 and knew it. Dr. Birx on cavuto admits she knew the jabs would not stop infection yet they had the CDC, wallensky, biden saying you would not get covid if you got jabbed. 

On top of that, she also says 50% of omicron deaths are the jabbed. I guess its a milder death. So much for pandemic of the unjabbed.

Lets be clear, this never was a vaccine like i said. It now, with birx's admission, does not even fit their updated version of 'vaccine'.

https://twitter.com/SKMorefield/status/1550586541239635969

 
Hows those jabs working out for ya now? Oh, they didnt. They did nothing for ya. Ya still buying the last lie of reduce symptoms, winston?😄 
I know multiple people who died and/or are or were severely debilitated from covid who didn’t get the vaccine. I know even more people who were vaccinated and got covid and it varied from nothing at all to flu/bad cold. I will take the vaccines 100/100 times to get a cold and avoid death or a 120 day hospital stay, coma, and bloodclots and being unable to walk unassisted after 2 years (like the one guy I know).
 

Everyone knows your “position”. Good for you. Your posts contribute nothing to the discussion. 

 
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Same. All five of us (myself, wife, three teens). Just a little sniffle and time to binge some movies and skip some practices and games. 
 

For the most part, the only people who get messed up or die are Lod types. And that’s not really any net loss for society. Nobody cares.


If you come back, be way more cool to other posters instead of saying nobody cares if they die.

 
If you come back, be way more cool to other posters instead of saying nobody cares if they die.
There are 2-3 “usual suspects” that basically just come in here and troll. Sometimes frustration with these folks boil over. This has been a great thread for 2+ years and it’s a shame when good posters get banned while the trolls with an agenda just keep popping in and clogging up otherwise good and useful information and conversation. 

 
There are 2-3 “usual suspects” that basically just come in here and troll. Sometimes frustration with these folks boil over. This has been a great thread for 2+ years and it’s a shame when good posters get banned while the trolls with an agenda just keep popping in and clogging up otherwise good and useful information and conversation. 
Put them on ignore and please don’t quote them - I never see that dudes trolling takes unless somebody replies to him.  There’s two options - he’s trolling to get a rise out of somebody or he’s just grossly misinformed.  Either way, none of us are missing anything having him on ignore.

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
There are 2-3 “usual suspects” that basically just come in here and troll. Sometimes frustration with these folks boil over. This has been a great thread for 2+ years and it’s a shame when good posters get banned while the trolls with an agenda just keep popping in and clogging up otherwise good and useful information and conversation. 


"Good posters" don't say nobody cares if another poster here dies. 

 
But let's let the instigator go....

Good logic
I agree, but the guy who throws the second punch will invariably be the one the refs toss from the game.

Look, we all know these posts pop up every week or so (anyone else suspect he has a recurring "Troll the FBG Covid thread" reminder on his phone?) They're clearly not designed to spark a reasoned discussion, so don't grant him the courtesy of pretending they are.

I find this thread to be an invaluable resource. Please don't do anything that might facilitate its descent 

 
Put them on ignore and please don’t quote them - I never see that dudes trolling takes unless somebody replies to him.  There’s two options - he’s trolling to get a rise out of somebody or he’s just grossly misinformed.  Either way, none of us are missing anything having him on ignore.


Be careful.  Advocating placement on ignore might be hurtful.  Mod might ban you.

 
So i had a very close Covid exposure on Monday night.  Surprisingly still testing negative.  I thought for sure this was the one.  Safe to assume 6 days after with no symptoms i'm in the clear right?
Omicron’s symptom onset is faster than early strains ... so I would feel pretty good if I were testing negative and still without symptoms six days out.

 
Got an email last night that several people from the meeting self reported testing positive. Not sure if this went to all 120 attendees or just close contacts. 

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
There are 2-3 “usual suspects” that basically just come in here and troll. Sometimes frustration with these folks boil over. This has been a great thread for 2+ years and it’s a shame when good posters get banned while the trolls with an agenda just keep popping in and clogging up otherwise good and useful information and conversation. 
Stop replying to then. The reply the other poster made was despicable.

 
Can we get more legit discussion on Birx's comments.

She clearly recommends getting vaccinated in the video. But it's eye-opening her mentioning the vaccine messaging was overplayed.

Here's the full comment:

DR. BIRX: I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection. And I think we overplayed the vaccines, and it made people then worry that it's not going to protect against severe disease and hospitalization. It will. But let's be very clear: 50% of the people who died from the Omicron surge were older, vaccinated. So that's why I'm saying even if you're vaccinated and boosted, if you're unvaccinated right now, the key is testing and Paxlovid. It's effective. It's a great antiviral. And really, that is what's going to save your lives right now if you're over 70, which if you look at the hospitalizations, hospitalizations are rising steadily with new admissions, particularly in those over 70. And so if you live in the South - I know people keep talking about the fall - I'm worried about the South.

 
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Can we get more legit discussion on Birx's comments.

She clearly recommends getting vaccinated in the video. But it's eye-opening her mentioning the vaccine messaging was overplayed.

Here's the full comment:

DR. BIRX: I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection. And I think we overplayed the vaccines, and it made people then worry that it's not going to protect against severe disease and hospitalization. It will. But let's be very clear: 50% of the people who died from the Omicron surge were older, vaccinated. So that's why I'm saying even if you're vaccinated and boosted, if you're unvaccinated right now, the key is testing and Paxlovid. It's effective. It's a great antiviral. And really, that is what's going to save your lives right now if you're over 70, which if you look at the hospitalizations, hospitalizations are rising steadily with new admissions, particularly in those over 70. And so if you live in the South - I know people keep talking about the fall - I'm worried about the South.


I mean what's controversial about this?  The vaccine that is still in vials was produced for a variant that was last relevant when Tiger Woods had two legs to stand on. 

The slow pace of the updates of these is going to cause problems for those >70, but below that there seems nearly no risk whatsoever. 

 
I mean what's controversial about this?  The vaccine that is still in vials was produced for a variant that was last relevant when Tiger Woods had two legs to stand on. 

The slow pace of the updates of these is going to cause problems for those >70, but below that there seems nearly no risk whatsoever. 
I never said controversial but she basically said the vaccine is pointless right now and that paxlovid is better.

 
Biggest test outside of my Kentucky Derby trip. Concert with 50,000 people last night. Have another one tonight. We’ll see. Saw 3 masks. SoFi in LA so indoors with an open option.  Felt air but seemed like AC so we were likely closed. Hope I escape it

 
Just taking a step back, we're not even 2.5 years into this thing and ~6.5 million people have died from Covid worldwide (and that number is surely larger). Over a million were here in the US.

Just tragic. 

At the same time, so thankful for technology that brought us vaccines and treatments as quickly as they did and saved untold numbers of lives.

 
I mean what's controversial about this?  The vaccine that is still in vials was produced for a variant that was last relevant when Tiger Woods had two legs to stand on. 

The slow pace of the updates of these is going to cause problems for those >70, but below that there seems nearly no risk whatsoever. 
Truth is the vaccine did prevent infection for the original strain. We were maskless and down to 12,000 cases per day in July 2021 before Delta took hold. Maybe if we had more vaccine penetration and maybe if they communicated that it was a 3-shot prime vaccine, instead of using the word booster, which meant “optional” to a large percentage of people, it never would have taken hold. But here we are. 

 
I never said controversial but she basically said the vaccine is pointless right now and that paxlovid is better.
She did not say the vaccine is pointless. She directly said in that quote that it protects against severe disease and hospitalization. That is huge, far from pointless. And to Leeroy’s point, it did protect against infection of the original strain, but variants changed that. I believe vaccine mandates are now pretty pointless and should be dropped, as they no longer prevent transmission. But the vaccine is still very important to protect yourself against severe disease. 

 
She did not say the vaccine is pointless. She directly said in that quote that it protects against severe disease and hospitalization. That is huge, far from pointless. And to Leeroy’s point, it did protect against infection of the original strain, but variants changed that. I believe vaccine mandates are now pretty pointless and should be dropped, as they no longer prevent transmission. But the vaccine is still very important to protect yourself against severe disease. 
I believe the vaccine still prevents infection in the current variants.  Just not at as high of a rate as the original(I would be curious to know just how much or how little it prevents infection).  But hey so long as im not in the hospital then im fine with getting it.   Paxlovid does seem to be a game changer though. 

 
I believe the vaccine still prevents infection in the current variants.  Just not at as high of a rate as the original(I would be curious to know just how much or how little it prevents infection).  But hey so long as im not in the hospital then im fine with getting it.   Paxlovid does seem to be a game changer though. 
True, I suppose there are 3 levels to this, right?

Preventing transmission

Preventing infection

Preventing severe disease

 
I thought the posting of misinformation was not allowed, or am I thinking of a different forum.  The information lod posts is simply false.  There's nothing subjective about it.  It's just wrong information.
Yup. But I don’t know if misinfo is false here. I guess they’d have to delete the political forum if it were. 

 
Some fascinating responses in this thread. I get that you never know an individual's situation, but I was genuinely surprised (and a little saddened) at the number of people who say they haven't gotten Covid because, 2.5 years later, they're still basically shut-ins.

As for me, I would say that pre-vax, I definitely attribute my never getting it to being careful, but now that it's been 16 months since my first shot and I still haven't tested positive, I don't know what to think. Maybe I've had some sort of natural immunity from the beginning that I'm not aware of. More likely, I've just gotten lucky. One thing I can tell you is that it definitely isn't due to excessive caution.

 
She did not say the vaccine is pointless. She directly said in that quote that it protects against severe disease and hospitalization. That is huge, far from pointless. And to Leeroy’s point, it did protect against infection of the original strain, but variants changed that. I believe vaccine mandates are now pretty pointless and should be dropped, as they no longer prevent transmission. But the vaccine is still very important to protect yourself against severe disease. 
In the video she said it was basically pointless for this strain

 
Some fascinating responses in this thread. I get that you never know an individual's situation, but I was genuinely surprised (and a little saddened) at the number of people who say they haven't gotten Covid because, 2.5 years later, they're still basically shut-ins.

As for me, I would say that pre-vax, I definitely attribute my never getting it to being careful, but now that it's been 16 months since my first shot and I still haven't tested positive, I don't know what to think. Maybe I've had some sort of natural immunity from the beginning that I'm not aware of. More likely, I've just gotten lucky. One thing I can tell you is that it definitely isn't due to excessive caution.
Lmao I guarantee I'm a hell of a lot less cautious than you and also been lucky so far.

 
Truth is the vaccine did prevent infection for the original strain. We were maskless and down to 12,000 cases per day in July 2021 before Delta took hold. Maybe if we had more vaccine penetration and maybe if they communicated that it was a 3-shot prime vaccine, instead of using the word booster, which meant “optional” to a large percentage of people, it never would have taken hold. But here we are. 


Still would have required a more air tight immigration quarantine to maintain. 

 
Some fascinating responses in this thread. I get that you never know an individual's situation, but I was genuinely surprised (and a little saddened) at the number of people who say they haven't gotten Covid because, 2.5 years later, they're still basically shut-ins.

As for me, I would say that pre-vax, I definitely attribute my never getting it to being careful, but now that it's been 16 months since my first shot and I still haven't tested positive, I don't know what to think. Maybe I've had some sort of natural immunity from the beginning that I'm not aware of. More likely, I've just gotten lucky. One thing I can tell you is that it definitely isn't due to excessive caution.
I’m immunocompromised and i still haven’t gotten it.  I am on flights basically every week.  Now i do mask up indoors but otherwise I’m out and about often and have a kid in daycare which ups the ante.  
 

So yea I’m surprised i haven’t gotten it and kind of just want to get the damn thing over with. 🤷🏽‍♂️

i do suspect some people have better immunity to it.  Wasn’t there something related to blood type early on and their reactions to the vaccine?

 
Worked great, I caught covid a few weeks ago and didn’t even get a fever or develop any symptoms, a relatively painless process. Thanks for asking! :thumbup:  


I would imagine the vast majority of unvaccinated have the same experience.  Unless you are old or obese... was never a big deal for most.

 
“More than 2 in 5 adults (42.4%) have obesity.”


Anyone have the numbers on risk factors?

I would love to see just how far in second place obesity is for a risk factor.  My guess is far far far far far behing age.

 
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I’m immunocompromised and i still haven’t gotten it.  I am on flights basically every week.  Now i do mask up indoors but otherwise I’m out and about often and have a kid in daycare which ups the ante.  
 

So yea I’m surprised i haven’t gotten it and kind of just want to get the damn thing over with. 🤷🏽‍♂️
Sounds like you're in a similar boat to my best friend, who I've mentioned previously in this thread. He's highly immunocompromised, but at this point he's gotten four shots plus Evusheld (monoclonal antibodies given prophylactically). He's definitely more cautious than I am, but he's also living his life, traveling, etc.

i do suspect some people have better immunity to it.  Wasn’t there something related to blood type early on and their reactions to the vaccine?
I remember hearing some speculation very early on in the pandemic that, if we had eschewed all mitigation efforts and allowed the virus to run unchecked, there still would likely have been a percentage of people who never got it. But I don't recall hearing any hard science behind this supposition. Which is kind of weird, honestly. You'd think that would be a highly relevant question, both for knowing who in the population is in need of more (or less) protection, and also for what it could tell us about the virus and our bodies' ability to protect against it.

In any event, my guess is that my luck will eventually run out. I'm not doing a ton to prevent that from happening, but I'd still prefer that it not. I'll be attending a big international trade show for work this week, so it definitely wouldn't surprise me if this time next week I'm staring at the dreaded double line

 
Some fascinating responses in this thread. I get that you never know an individual's situation, but I was genuinely surprised (and a little saddened) at the number of people who say they haven't gotten Covid because, 2.5 years later, they're still basically shut-ins.

As for me, I would say that pre-vax, I definitely attribute my never getting it to being careful, but now that it's been 16 months since my first shot and I still haven't tested positive, I don't know what to think. Maybe I've had some sort of natural immunity from the beginning that I'm not aware of. More likely, I've just gotten lucky. One thing I can tell you is that it definitely isn't due to excessive caution.
Never got it either so far. Although had some exposures. I attribute this to diligent N95 usage. Otherwise I live my life with no real restrictions other than only outdoor dining when eating out and no movie theaters/concerts/etc but we weren’t really doing those anymore at our age so we don’t miss that. We did dine out a lot previously but so many places have outdoor dining we’re not missing out on anything there. 

We just wear the N95s everywhere. I’m sure we’ll get COVID at some point but I’m fine delaying it as long as possible to allow for even more treatments to become available. 

 
Speaking of folks who've never had Covid:

I am on a mission to preserve the most valuable item in my home: my fiancé, who has never had COVID. Through sheer luck and a healthy dose of terror, he made it through the first pandemic year without getting sick. Shielded by the J&J vaccine and a Moderna booster, he dodged infection when I fell ill last November and coughed up the coronavirus all over our cramped New York City apartment. Somehow, he ducked the Omicron wave over the winter, when it seemed as though everyone was getting sick. And in the past few months, he has emerged unscathed from crowded weddings, indoor dinners, and flights across the country.

At this point, I worry about how much longer it’s going to last. People like him—I think of them as “COVID virgins”—are becoming a rare breed. Just yesterday, President Joe Biden thinned their ranks by one more person. The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests that as of earlier this month, 82 percent of Americans have been infected with the coronavirus at least once. Some of those people might still think they’re never had the virus: Asymptomatic infections happen, and mild symptoms are sometimes brushed off as allergies or a cold. Now that we’re battling BA.5, the most contagious and vaccine-dodging Omicron offshoot yet, many people are facing their second, third, or even fourth infections. That reality can make it feel like the stragglers who have evaded infection for two and a half years are destined to fall sick sooner rather than later. At this point, are COVID virgins nothing more than sitting ducks?

 
Some fascinating responses in this thread. I get that you never know an individual's situation, but I was genuinely surprised (and a little saddened) at the number of people who say they haven't gotten Covid because, 2.5 years later, they're still basically shut-ins.

As for me, I would say that pre-vax, I definitely attribute my never getting it to being careful, but now that it's been 16 months since my first shot and I still haven't tested positive, I don't know what to think. Maybe I've had some sort of natural immunity from the beginning that I'm not aware of. More likely, I've just gotten lucky. One thing I can tell you is that it definitely isn't due to excessive caution.
Same, more or less.  I haven't taken a single "precaution" voluntarily for well over a year now, and as far as I know I still haven't been infected.  I know it's only a matter of time, but at this point I still haven't even had so much as a cold since March 2020.  (I was sick when my campus shut down, which makes it easy to remember).

 
Same, more or less.  I haven't taken a single "precaution" voluntarily for well over a year now, and as far as I know I still haven't been infected.  I know it's only a matter of time, but at this point I still haven't even had so much as a cold since March 2020.  (I was sick when my campus shut down, which makes it easy to remember).


I was very sick at the beginning of March 2020 as well - was back in the office for 2 days before the shutdown.  Maybe we had the OG COVID, plus vaccines, and now we have super plasma.  I tested for anti-bodies in May, and it was negative.  But I was just speaking with someone who had COVID in January 2020, who never tested positive for anti-bodies and has not been re-infected.

 
I have still not had COVID to my knowledge. Nor have my wife and son. We aren’t in crowds regularly and still wear masks in crowded indoor spaces. 

However, we have been to Disney World (a few weeks before the first Omicron surge) and I have been to two conferences for work (at one of which almost no one wore a mask), so it’s not like we’ve been living as 2020-style hermits the whole time.

 
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 So the best I can find... over 65 = 97x risk.  Obese all ages = 3x risk.

So lets just write off obesity.

If you aren't old, covid was never really much of a threat.


That's sort of the fallacy of hazard ratios. It's meant to help equate risk across groups so you can spot outliers, not be an outright measure.  In this way an obese 50 might have the same Hazzard as a normal 65. 

 
I have still not had COVID to my knowledge. Nor have my wife and son. We aren’t in crowds regularly and still wear masks in crowded indoor spaces. 

However, we have been to Disney World (a few weeks before the first Omicron surge) and I have been to two conferences for work (at one of which almost no one wore a mask), so it’s not like we’ve been living as 2020-style hermits the whole time.


I literally slept with my oldest son the day before he tested positive, and was basically in there all of the first night as well.  Then my other son tested positive and I slept with him for 3 nights.  Now, I wore a mask when I was in with them (except for the first night with the oldest), but I also know there was no way it was on properly all night, and they literally were laying on me half of the time.  But I never tested positive. 

 
I literally slept with my oldest son the day before he tested positive, and was basically in there all of the first night as well.  Then my other son tested positive and I slept with him for 3 nights.  Now, I wore a mask when I was in with them (except for the first night with the oldest), but I also know there was no way it was on properly all night, and they literally were laying on me half of the time.  But I never tested positive. 
I slept in same bed as my covid positive wife in Dec 2020 WITHOUT a mask. Even shared food with her and still never got it.

 
I still think that within a decade, a theory proposed and tested early in the pandemic (good Cliffs Notes article) is going to become widely supported and accepted:

Prior exposure to certain legacy coronaviruses gives a significant degree of T-cell response to pre-Delta COVID strains/variants (and still mitigates against Delta and Omicron variants/subs as well).

It's going to end up being that simple.

EDIT: Adding another article published in summer 2020 by one of the three research teams cited above. Gives a deeper dive into the prior-exposure science and helps flesh out the timeline of research into this theory.

EDIT2: A lot of solid and very promising research is ongoing and corroborating the original 2020-21 work of the three German research teams cited above. Here's a late 2021 corroborating British study (original study) (summary article for public consumption). There have been some studies in the U.S. that have not upheld the exact hypotheses of the early researchers but instead have presented a more complicated picture. The U.S. studies seem to indicate that there is a "sweet spot" for the T-cell response -- too little response and infection sets in and can replicate unopposed for a while; too much response and your body 'overreacts' and exhibits moderate to severe symptoms to a virus that your immune system is essentially holding in check.

 
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