Doug B
Footballguy
All right, here we go. This isn't the exact same thing I had read, but it covers the same ground and is aimed at the layman. Keep in mind as you read this that this was published over a month ago, and that the U.S. has not had a surge in BA.5 cases at the same level of, say, western European nations. They had pronounced BA.5 "hills" in their May-June 2022 case-count curves while the U.S. case-count curve stayed largely stable** for another three weeks after this article was written :I started looking for some citations for the "BA.2.12.1 antibodies protect against BA.4/5" thing. I haven't found the easy-breezy layman's explanation in a link yet ...
What to Know About the Newest, Most Contagious Omicron Subvariants (Time, 6/15/2022)
** and yes, the U.S. case count curve has been rising steadily the last two weeks as BA.5 has become dominant. However, the shape of the U.S. curve over the last few weeks shows, so far, only a gentle rise and not the sharper "steep hill" shaped curve other nations have experienced from BA.5.It’s unclear which strain will dominate the U.S. next
Luo and other experts are watching to identify whether one or two of these concerning Omicron subvariants will outcompete the others. While BA.4 and BA.5 have driven new COVID-19 surges in other countries, these subvariants have yet to compete directly with BA.2.12.1. Early data from the U.K. suggest BA.4 and BA.5 may spread slightly faster than BA.2.12.1, but the landscape is unclear.
BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.12.1 are all “competing for the same people, because they kind of have the same advantage,” Johnson says. His team’s Missouri wastewater surveillance network is showing that BA.4 and BA.5 are causing more cases in some places, while BA.2.12.1 is causing more cases in others. However, the regions dominated by BA.2.12.1 are showing more of an increase in cases, he says. This pattern contradicts other reports of BA.4 and BA.5 taking over from BA.2.12.1.
Different versions of Omicron could become the dominant strains in different parts of the country, Bieniasz says. For example, in the Northeast, where a BA.2.12.1-driven surge appears to have already reached its peak, BA.4 and BA.5 may gain less of a foothold, while they become more prevalent in the South and West.
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