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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (5 Viewers)

Any word on boosters for us under 50s?
No, and I'm pretty shocked that an "oh, what the heck" approval wasn't given for extra boosters for folks under 50. I understand the studies don't show a great deal of difference in outcomes, but still -- if someone wants fresh humoral antibodies, why stand in the way?

 
No, and I'm pretty shocked that an "oh, what the heck" approval wasn't given for extra boosters for folks under 50. I understand the studies don't show a great deal of difference in outcomes, but still -- if someone wants fresh humoral antibodies, why stand in the way?
Maybe I missed it, but I thought there was good data on shot 4 showing reduction of infection and severity on BA5. Or is that not true or unknown?

 
Major move up in the recent numbers since I posted yesterday. Here's where this week's 7-day average detected** case counts have been adjusted to -- and more will for sure be added over the next week. This week's counts could settle in at around 140,000 - 150,000.

Mon 07/11/2022 - 118,911
Tue  07/12/2022 - 125,392
Wed 07/13/2022 - 125,658
Thu  07/14/2022 - 118.950
Now last Wednesday's 7-day average detected case count number is:

Wed 07/13/2022 - 130,325

That same day, Wed 7/13/2022, is now the 7-day average deaths leader for the spring/summer 2022 surge at 381 deaths (previous high was 368).

Still looking like "hills" are forming and not "spikes" ... at least this early on. Hoping it stays that way.

Numbers for hospitalizations and ICU patients have been out of service for the past two weeks -- can't get up-to-date numbers from the Johns Hopkins page I had been using. Will keep trying.

 
Maybe I missed it, but I thought there was good data on shot 4 showing reduction of infection and severity on BA5. Or is that not true or unknown?
I'm unsure whether that held up for younger adults -- have to track that down.

Might be a touch early for severity data on BA.5. Unsure on that, kind of spitballing.

 
No, and I'm pretty shocked that an "oh, what the heck" approval wasn't given for extra boosters for folks under 50. I understand the studies don't show a great deal of difference in outcomes, but still -- if someone wants fresh humoral antibodies, why stand in the way?
Maybe I missed it, but I thought there was good data on shot 4 showing reduction of infection and severity on BA5. Or is that not true or unknown?
This article is three months old, but does a good job outlining what the CDC has been thinking about approving younger adults for fourth shots. Turns out it's NOT so much based on efficacy at all.

Most People Under 50 Don’t Need 4th Shot Yet, CDC Panel Suggests (Bloomberg, 4/20/2022)

Most Americans under 50 should wait for the next generation of booster shots rather than getting a fourth dose now to prevent Covid-19 infections, according to several members of a panel of advisers to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The goal of booster shots should be to limit severe outcomes rather than to prevent transmission of the virus, the advisers said in a meeting Wednesday. That means people with high risk of grave illness from an infection should consider an extra shot, but most people should hold out for better vaccines later this year, they said.

 
I asked because that is the highest fever I have seen in a long time. 
Yeah I snapped a pic when it got to 103.7. About an hour later it got to the 104.4, I was solo at the house with my wife still in MA with my MIL so I felt I had better get out of bed and get some ice packs. The kitchen freezer could have been 4 miles away at that point. 

 
I am literally the only person out of about 120 attendees that’s wearing a mask at this conference. Nobody else. And the guy sitting behind me is sneezing. Yay. Debating on whether I want to go to the indoor dinner.

Any word on boosters for us under 50s?
Just lie and say you’re immunocompromised. That’s what I did. There’s more shots than people willing to take them so go for it.

 
I am literally the only person out of about 120 attendees that’s wearing a mask at this conference. Nobody else. And the guy sitting behind me is sneezing. Yay. Debating on whether I want to go to the indoor dinner.

Any word on boosters for us under 50s?
On the way up to CC from outside of Philly, I was literally one of 2 people with a mask(N95)at the only rest area I stopped at in Connecticut. In and out in 5 minutes tops. 
On the way back it was the same thing at a spot in N NJ. At that point I knew I had been exposed and was just waiting to test positive so the mask was to protect whatever random souls passed through my air stream. No choice, I had to stop to use the bathroom, in and out in just a few minutes. 

I hope you stay safe. 

 
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Seconding that you should just lie and say you’re immunocompromised to get the shot. Just say you have Delano-Romanowski Syndrome or some other made up ####.  Where I went it was just a paper you had to sign. 

 
This article is three months old, but does a good job outlining what the CDC has been thinking about approving younger adults for fourth shots. Turns out it's NOT so much based on efficacy at all.

Most People Under 50 Don’t Need 4th Shot Yet, CDC Panel Suggests (Bloomberg, 4/20/2022)
Somebody ask these people why on earth we can’t get both a shot now and the reconfigured one in the fall. 

Anyway I got mine because it was actually my third since I was a J&J recipient with 1 Moderna booster. I have no idea where my immunity stands with that so I opted to get a shot last week. 

 
Meanwhile other people still make a big deal about being "vaxxed and boosted", I've seen at least one event where "all attendees must have had 3 shots" to go... that boost from last November wore off three months ago. It's irrelevant at this point who's been vaccinated and who hasn't, everyone is susceptible. 

 
Somebody ask these people why on earth we can’t get both a shot now and the reconfigured one in the fall. 

Anyway I got mine because it was actually my third since I was a J&J recipient with 1 Moderna booster. I have no idea where my immunity stands with that so I opted to get a shot last week. 


I do think there's some valid questions/concerns about getting shots without having enough information.  Fall is just a couple months away.  It still seems like we are shooting at the hip at times with boosters, which variants they help with, when the next booster will be needed, etc.  And I'm not someone who is hesitant to take vaccines and wasn't with Covid - as soon as I was eligible I got it.

I've now been double vaxxed and boosted.  Happy I did it.  Got Covid about 6 weeks ago.  I'm 48 and relatively healthy.  Should I get boosted?  Wait?  I realize everyone is different but it does at least feel like there's still a ton of unknown and I think that should make people question things.  

 
I've now been double vaxxed and boosted.  Happy I did it.  Got Covid about 6 weeks ago.  I'm 48 and relatively healthy.  Should I get boosted?  Wait?  I realize everyone is different but it does at least feel like there's still a ton of unknown and I think that should make people question things.
In your particular case, that COVID infection was your second booster. I'd say you're good right now.

My sequence was like so:

1st shot - March 12, 2021
2nd shot - April 10, 2021
1st Booster - December 4, 2021
Presumptive** COVID infection - week of January 2, 2022
2nd booster - May 13, 2022 (four months past most recent infection/vaccination)

...

When you write that "there's still a ton of unknown and I think that should make people question things", what do you mean? Question things about the efficacy, or questioning how much a booster actually helps? Or questioning the safety profile -- the idea that a vaccine we've already gotten safely three times will just ... do something ... that fourth time?

For me -- and yeah, I'm more gung ho than most -- I'd take COVID boosters weekly IF it was rock-solid proven that I'd completely avoid infection doing so. Without reservation and with absolutely no care about myocarditis, clots, or any of that (which I think is this close to BS the way the odds of those outcomes are sold in the popular media).

** Never tested positive on a home antigen test or on the one drive-thru PCR test I took. Same for wife, who had taste/smell loss + other symptoms. Son tested positive on PCR this same week. Others we had dined out with the previous week also tested positive on PCRs. Son had attended a movie a few days before with others who tested positive on PCRs the week of January 2nd, 2022. Putting together the puzzle pieces -- wife and I had to have had COVID.
 

 
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I am literally the only person out of about 120 attendees that’s wearing a mask at this conference. Nobody else. And the guy sitting behind me is sneezing. Yay. Debating on whether I want to go to the indoor dinner.

Any word on boosters for us under 50s?


If you are this worried about it, why are you at a conference at all?  

 
Meanwhile other people still make a big deal about being "vaxxed and boosted", I've seen at least one event where "all attendees must have had 3 shots" to go... that boost from last November wore off three months ago. It's irrelevant at this point who's been vaccinated and who hasn't, everyone is susceptible. 
My wife still has to test weekly to go into the office since shes not vaxxed. Those who are vaxxed do not have to test. A case can be made shes the safest one in the office and others are risking her health more than the other way around. Moronic.

 
Somebody ask these people why on earth we can’t get both a shot now and the reconfigured one in the fall. 

Anyway I got mine because it was actually my third since I was a J&J recipient with 1 Moderna booster. I have no idea where my immunity stands with that so I opted to get a shot last week. 
Why not just get a new booster shot everyday?

 
My wife still has to test weekly to go into the office since shes not vaxxed. Those who are vaxxed do not have to test. A case can be made shes the safest one in the office and others are risking her health more than the other way around. Moronic.


I kinda agree.  I think the Vax requirements early on at least had good statistical grounding.  But since Omicron, the game has changed.  While it may be true that the vaxxed stand a better chance of avoiding severe outcomes, initial infection and transmission don't seem a whole lot different for the vaxxed or un-vaxxed.

But it's also possible I'm missing something.  I'm far from a Covid expert. 

 
I do think there's some valid questions/concerns about getting shots without having enough information.  Fall is just a couple months away.  It still seems like we are shooting at the hip at times with boosters, which variants they help with, when the next booster will be needed, etc.  And I'm not someone who is hesitant to take vaccines and wasn't with Covid - as soon as I was eligible I got it.

I've now been double vaxxed and boosted.  Happy I did it.  Got Covid about 6 weeks ago.  I'm 48 and relatively healthy.  Should I get boosted?  Wait?  I realize everyone is different but it does at least feel like there's still a ton of unknown and I think that should make people question things.  
There's a reasonable argument to be had at a societal level as to whether the government should or should not be encouraging boosters for specific demos. But I really can't see the argument for restricting individual choices regarding boosting. There is zero evidence indicating that people are in any kind of danger from getting boosted "too soon". So why not let everyone do what they feel safe with doing? If you want to put on some kind of reasonable restriction like you can't get multiple shots within a certain time period, fine. But telling a 49 year old she isn't allowed to get boosted and her 50 year old friend she can is silly.

 
So for arbitrary reason they want someone in the office next week even though they sent everyone home for high transmission.

Now they are making a few of us come in but said we have to mask up and all that stuff. NEED SOMONEHERE IN CASE TESTING HAS AN ISSUE@#$@#   

HEY JACKHOLES I FIXED 3 PROBLEMS FROM HOME ALREADY

Good luck - I'll come in against my will but I'm just sitting in my office maskless - you dont like it send me ####### home

soooooooooo stoooooooooooooooooopid

 
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There's a reasonable argument to be had at a societal level as to whether the government should or should not be encouraging boosters for specific demos. But I really can't see the argument for restricting individual choices regarding boosting. There is zero evidence indicating that people are in any kind of danger from getting boosted "too soon". So why not let everyone do what they feel safe with doing? If you want to put on some kind of reasonable restriction like you can't get multiple shots within a certain time period, fine. But telling a 49 year old she isn't allowed to get boosted and her 50 year old friend she can is silly.


I think you were just piggybacking off my post but just to make sure I'm clear - I'm not suggesting we shouldn't allow it - I agree it's silly.  What I'm concerned about is for me individually - how do I know when I should get boosted?  I'll most likely talk to my GP about it but I get the feeling they will give vague advice because they won't necessarily know.  And I'm not blaming anyone for that - I expect this to continue to be fluid. 

What I was pushing back on with Scoresman was him saying:

"Somebody ask these people why on earth we can’t get both a shot now and the reconfigured one in the fall."

I don't think it's that easy of a call.

 
So for arbitrary reason they want someone in the office next week even though they sent everyone home for high transmission.

Now they are making a few of us come in but said we have to mask up and all that stuff. NEED SOMONEHERE IN CASE TESTING HAS AN ISSUE@#$@#   

HEY JACKHOLES I FIXED 3 PROBLEMS FROM HOME ALREADY

Good luck - I'll come in against my will but I'm just sitting in my office maskless - you dont like it send me ####### home

soooooooooo stoooooooooooooooooopid
At Old Job, they brought us back into the office pre-vax and put us on a 50% schedule with the office divided into two "capsules" that weren't supposed to mix at all (of course, they largely ignored this and people in senior management would come in on days they weren't supposed to). 

I was in Capsule A. At one point, there were a couple positives among Capsule B, but also a couple people in A who had been close contacts of the people who tested positive. Their response: Send Capsule B home, tell Capsule A they had to come in every day, and pretend none of the cross-contamination ever happened. When I told them I was just going to stay home and use sick days -- me being allowed to WFH was a non-starter, even though the other half of the office was doing that -- they got mad at me for overreacting. All this despite them being well aware that my father-in-law had died from Covid three months earlier.

Did I mention I no longer work for this organization?

 
I think you were just piggybacking off my post but just to make sure I'm clear - I'm not suggesting we shouldn't allow it - I agree it's silly.  What I'm concerned about is for me individually - how do I know when I should get boosted?  I'll most likely talk to my GP about it but I get the feeling they will give vague advice because they won't necessarily know.  And I'm not blaming anyone for that - I expect this to continue to be fluid. 

What I was pushing back on with Scoresman was him saying:

"Somebody ask these people why on earth we can’t get both a shot now and the reconfigured one in the fall."

I don't think it's that easy of a call.
You're right, I think I read the first part of your post and then was off to the races. 

So to address what you actually said,  my two responses would be:

a) I think it's a low-stakes decision either way, especially as it relates to severe illness. I also agree with Doug that your recent Covid case effectively does serve as a second booster, so if it were me, I would hold off.

b) In my case, I got a second booster last week because I had never had Covid and I figured I might as well get out in front of the BA.5 wave. But if I hadn't, the most likely outcome is that I would have gotten a mild case of Covid, so not a huge deal.

 
So for arbitrary reason they want someone in the office next week even though they sent everyone home for high transmission.

Now they are making a few of us come in but said we have to mask up and all that stuff. NEED SOMONEHERE IN CASE TESTING HAS AN ISSUE@#$@#   

HEY JACKHOLES I FIXED 3 PROBLEMS FROM HOME ALREADY

Good luck - I'll come in against my will but I'm just sitting in my office maskless - you dont like it send me ####### home

soooooooooo stoooooooooooooooooopid
We went WFH in March 2020 when we had our first company outbreak. Forced back in the office May 2020.

Went WFH the week of Thanksgiving when we had our 2nd outbreak. Forced back to the office February 2021.

Each time forced back into a fairly small office shared with 3 other guys.

A number of times I was WFH due to being quarantined. 

Today I found out that my coworker was exposed to someone who came up positive last night. 

Oh, and I have 0 reasons to work onsite. I'm a freaking DBA / Data analyst.  :lmao:

At this point I'm not worried about the potential exposure. I'm vaxxed, boosted... been exposed a bunch of times already. I just can't figure out why our bosses can't see that it is dumb to do this yoyo approach. 

 
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What I was pushing back on with Scoresman was him saying:

"Somebody ask these people why on earth we can’t get both a shot now and the reconfigured one in the fall."

I don't think it's that easy of a call.
The CDC went with four months between Booster #1 and Booster #2 for those 50+ years old.

I don't see why a similar parameter wouldn't be suggested between any two COVID boosters. Scoresman should be able to go get his second booster today, and then get a prospective Omicron booster in late November. Not sure what would make that call difficult, but them I'm one who considers the vaccine virtually riskless. I don't think they have to test anything more and "make sure" there's no danger. I might be off on an island, but that's where I'm at today.

 
We went WFH in March 2020 when we had our first company outbreak. Forced back in the office May 2020.

Went WFH the week of Thanksgiving when we had our 2nd outbreak. Forced back to the office February 2021.

Each time forced back into a fairly small office shared with 3 other guys.

A number of times I was WFH due to being quarantined. 

Today I found out that my coworker was exposed to someone who came up positive last night. 

Oh, and I have 0 reasons to work onsite. I'm a freaking DBA / Data analyst.  :lmao:

At this point I'm not worried about the potential exposure. I'm vaxxed, boosted... been exposed a bunch of times already. I just can't figure out why our bosses can't see that it is dumb to do this yoyo approach. 
I've been home since 3/20.......   We were in office for about 2 weeks this past april before they sent eveyone home again.

I have not missed one deadline, I have fixed countless number of problems all from home.........  I HAVE ZERO reason to be on site, literally zero.   the best part in all of this...... they wouldn't allow people that wanted to work in office to come in......

no rhyme or reason

 
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We went WFH in March 2020 when we had our first company outbreak. Forced back in the office May 2020.

Went WFH the week of Thanksgiving when we had our 2nd outbreak. Forced back to the office February 2021.

Each time forced back into a fairly small office shared with 3 other guys.

A number of times I was WFH due to being quarantined. 

Today I found out that my coworker was exposed to someone who came up positive last night. 

Oh, and I have 0 reasons to work onsite. I'm a freaking DBA / Data analyst.  :lmao:

At this point I'm not worried about the potential exposure. I'm vaxxed, boosted... been exposed a bunch of times already. I just can't figure out why our bosses can't see that it is dumb to do this yoyo approach. 
Pre-vax, my biggest pet peeve was employers who didn't prioritize worker safety.

Post-vax, it's in-office policies that make no sense

 
I tpld you all this garbage didnt work but you fell for the "100% safe & effective.' You got reduced to ' it was only so that you symptoms would be less". There is ZERO proof of that since you cannot get covid without the jab and then right away with the jab but they knew that and they knew you would buy it. You were easily fooled into 100% safe & effective so that line was a no brainer. 

Well https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35659687/ the more of this crap you pump into yourself, the weaker your immune system as the real doctors suspected. You probably screwed up your immune system for life but then this trash has never been tested on humans until now. It doesn't work, it never worked.

 
lod001 said:
I tpld you all this garbage didnt work but you fell for the "100% safe & effective.' You got reduced to ' it was only so that you symptoms would be less". There is ZERO proof of that since you cannot get covid without the jab and then right away with the jab but they knew that and they knew you would buy it. You were easily fooled into 100% safe & effective so that line was a no brainer. 

Well https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35659687/ the more of this crap you pump into yourself, the weaker your immune system as the real doctors suspected. You probably screwed up your immune system for life but then this trash has never been tested on humans until now. It doesn't work, it never worked.
k thx for dropping by 

 
NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs get big adjustments as much as two weeks after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited ten days to let the last-week Monday (July 11) numbers settle in. They will rise some more by next week's update, but it should only be by a relatively small amount.)

...

Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States: 

CASES ON THU 07/21/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 825,688  <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 424,816
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,942
Mon 02/28/2022 -   62,205
Mon 03/14/2022 -   32,909
Sat   04/02/2022 -   27,599 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/18/2022 -   40,862
Mon 05/02/2022 -   63,232
Mon 05/09/2022 -   81,436
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,145
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,811
Mon 05/30/2022 - 110,284
Mon 06/06/2022 - 106,740
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,470
Mon 06/20/2022 -   99,066
Mon 06/27/2022 - 113,048
Mon 07/04/2022 - 115,174
Mon 07/11/2022 - 120,464  (114,152 on Thu 07/14/2022)
Wed 07/13/2022 - 130,981
Thu 07/14/2022 - 131,917  <-- SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Fri 07/15/2022 - 130,130
Mon 07/18/2022 - 118,590  <--provisional count

DEATHS ON THU 07/21/2022
Sun  01/29/2022 - 2,756  <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Thu  02/17/2022 - 2,196
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,750
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,137
Mon 03/28/2022 - 635
Mon 04/11/2022 - 487
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Mon 05/09/2022 - 300
Thu 05/12/2022   - 290  <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/23/2022 - 324
Mon 06/06/2022 - 341
Tue 06/07/2022  - 369
Mon 06/13/2022 - 362
Mon 06/20/2022 - 311
Mon 06/27/2022 - 349  (342 on Thu 07/14/2022)
Mon 07/04/2022 - 356  (339 on Thu 07/14/2022)
Mon 07/11/2022 - 370  (312 on Thu 07/14/2022)
Tue 07/12/2022 - 387
Wed 07/13/2022 - 393  <--SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Mon 07/18/2022 - 317  <--provisional count

...

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 825,688 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 120,464 on 7/11/2022. Now it's clear the U.S. is on a steady case-count rise, as opposed to up-and-down waves. The 7-day case numbers topped 130,000 last week for the first time since mid-February. Still too early to know at what level the rise will top out, though I'm remaining confident that this is not going to be another winter 2021-22 spike -- still looking more like a hill as Delta was in summer-fall 2021.

DEATHS: The 7-day average had dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,756 on 1/29/2022 to 350 on Tue 4/19/2022. As predicted, the 7/11/2022 number rose to 370, with the 7-day average blowing past 390 two days later to set a new spring/summer high. Even with this ongoing and clear rise, we're still in the realm of small numbers compared to the estimated numbers of cases -- which is, however, cold comfort to anyone personally affected.

...

For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.

CASES: 12,197 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021

 
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NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs get big adjustments as much as two weeks after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited ten days to let the last-week Monday (July 11) numbers settle in. They will rise some more by next week's update, but it should only be by a relatively small amount.)

...

Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States: 

CASES ON THU 07/21/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 825,688  <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 424,816
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,942
Mon 02/28/2022 -   62,205
Mon 03/14/2022 -   32,909
Sat   04/02/2022 -   27,599 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/18/2022 -   40,862
Mon 05/02/2022 -   63,232
Mon 05/09/2022 -   81,436
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,145
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,811
Mon 05/30/2022 - 110,284
Mon 06/06/2022 - 106,740
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,470
Mon 06/20/2022 -   99,066
Mon 06/27/2022 - 113,048
Mon 07/04/2022 - 115,174
Mon 07/11/2022 - 120,464  (114,152 on Thu 07/14/2022)
Wed 07/13/2022 - 130,981
Thu 07/14/2022 - 131,917  <-- SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Fri 07/15/2022 - 130,130
Mon 07/18/2022 - 118,590  <--provisional count

DEATHS ON THU 07/21/2022
Sun  01/29/2022 - 2,756  <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Thu  02/17/2022 - 2,196
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,750
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,137
Mon 03/28/2022 - 635
Mon 04/11/2022 - 487
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Mon 05/09/2022 - 300
Thu 05/12/2022   - 290  <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/23/2022 - 324
Mon 06/06/2022 - 341
Tue 06/07/2022  - 369
Mon 06/13/2022 - 362
Mon 06/20/2022 - 311
Mon 06/27/2022 - 349  (342 on Thu 07/14/2022)
Mon 07/04/2022 - 356  (339 on Thu 07/14/2022)
Mon 07/11/2022 - 370  (312 on Thu 07/14/2022)
Tue 07/12/2022 - 387
Wed 07/13/2022 - 393  <--SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Mon 07/18/2022 - 317  <--provisional count

...

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 825,688 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 120,464 on 7/11/2022. Now it's clear the U.S. is on a steady case-count rise, as opposed to up-and-down waves. The 7-day case numbers topped 130,000 last week for the first time since mid-February. Still too early to know at what level the rise will top out, though I'm remaining confident that this is not going to be another winter 2021-22 spike -- still looking more like a hill as Delta was in summer-fall 2021.

DEATHS: The 7-day average had dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,756 on 1/29/2022 to 350 on Tue 4/19/2022. As predicted, the 7/11/2022 number rose to 370, with the 7-day average blowing past 390 two days later to set a new spring/summer high. Even with this ongoing and clear rise, we're still in the realm of small numbers compared to the estimated numbers of cases -- which is, however, cold comfort to anyone personally affected.

...

For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.

CASES: 12,197 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021


You can just see the Omicron Spike, then the spring BA1/2 surge and taper off, just to be met by the current BA4/5 wall and reignition.  Hopefully this tapers off in a similar timeline beginning shortly.

 
If we had the same death rates today as pre-vaccine with today’s numbers of infection, what would the deaths be vs what we are currently seeing?
Looking at Worldometers 7-day averages from early on when cases were still low and building, the highest early death counts were in mid-April 2020, with 7-day daily death counts peaking at 2,280 on April 18.

Picking a number of days to work backwards is necessarily arbitrary, but 14-17 days is a good rule of thumb to estimate how long after infection a COVID death took place. Go back 14 days to 4/4/2022, and the 7-day case count was around 27,967. Go back 17 days to 4/1/2020 and the 7-day case count was 22,652.

For our purposes here, the difference between the denominators 27,967 and 22,652 will yield significantly different results. Let's split the difference and go with 25,309.

Do we want to account for speculation that cases were undercounted in April 2020? Remember, this is way before any kind of home testing was done. Unfortunately, precisely what percentage of cases were missed then is an unknown. However, some approximations have been run -- here's one Columbia University released early in 2021. The Columbia one is especially helpful because it reaches back to the beginning of the pandemic. They posit that there were about 200,000 - 225,000 actual cases in early April 2020 (hard to pinpoint it at the graph's resolution). Again, let's split that difference and say there were about 212,500 actual cases per day in early April, and adopt that figure as our denominator. That means we took our split-the-difference detected 7-day case count of 25,309 and multiplied by 8.396 to get 212,500.

Let's calculate our mid-April 2020 death rate -- 2,280/212,500 = just a smidge over 1%, 0.01073, 1073 out of 100,000.

Now. In spring/summer 2022, many researchers are estimating that detected daily case counts need to be multiplied 7-10 times to yield something close to a true daily case count. Well, how about that? Our 8.396 true-case multiplier from above almost exactly splits the difference between 7 and 10. So let's employ 8.396 again.

7-day cases one week ago (see my post above) was 131,917. 131,917 * 8.396 = 1,107,575 (rounded down from 1,107,575.132). Taking mid-July 2022's 7-day case rate of 1.1 million and applying the mid-April 2020 death rate would yield:

1,107,575 * 0.01073 = 11,884 deaths per day (rounded from 11,883.628)

That's a reasonable answer to Leeroy's proposition "the same death rates today as pre-vaccine with today’s numbers of infection" considering what we know and what we can reasonably estimate. Around 11,884 deaths per day.

The actual 7-day death counts from last week topped out at 393 on 7/13. They will likely rise to over 400 over the next few days as the numbers get adjusted. But for now, we can say that the death rate in April 2020 was about 30 times the death rate today. Not sliced and diced by age or comorbidities or anything like that. Just everything all lumped together and averaged out.

 
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Looking at Worldometers 7-day averages from early on when cases were still low and building, the highest early death counts were in mid-April 2020, with 7-day daily death counts peaking at 2,280 on April 18.

Picking a number of days to work backwards is necessarily arbitrary, but 14-17 days is a good rule of thumb to estimate how long after infection a COVID death took place. Go back 14 days to 4/4/2022, and the 7-day case count was around 27,967. Go back 17 days to 4/1/2020 and the 7-day case count was 22,652.

For our purposes here, the difference between the denominators 27,967 and 22,652 will yield significantly different results. Let's split the difference and go with 25,309.

Do we want to account for speculation that cases were undercounted in April 2020? Remember, this is way before any kind of home testing was done. Unfortunately, precisely what percentage of cases were missed then is an unknown. However, some approximations have been run -- here's one Columbia University released early in 2021. The Columbia one is especially helpful because it reaches back to the beginning of the pandemic. They posit that there were about 200,000 - 225,000 actual cases in early April 2020 (hard to pinpoint it at the graph's resolution). Again, let's split that difference and say there were about 212,500 actual cases per day in early April, and adopt that figure as our denominator. That means we took our split-the-difference detected 7-day case count of 25,309 and multiplied by 8.396 to get 212,500.

Let's calculate our mid-April 2020 death rate -- 2,280/212,500 = just a smidge over 1%, 0.01073, 1073 out of 100,000.

Now. In spring/summer 2022, many researchers are estimating that detected daily case counts need to be multiplied 7-10 times to yield something close to a true daily case count. Well, how about that? Our 8.396 true-case multiplier from above almost exactly splits the difference between 7 and 10. So let's employ 8.396 again.

7-day cases one week ago (see my post above) was 131,917. 131,917 * 8.396 = 1,107,575 (rounded down from 1,107,575.132). Taking mid-July 2022's 7-day case rate of 1.1 million and applying the mid-April 2020 death rate would yield:

1,107,575 * 0.01073 = 11,884 deaths per day (rounded from 11,883.628)

That's a reasonable answer to Leeroy's proposition "the same death rates today as pre-vaccine with today’s numbers of infection" considering what we know and what we can reasonably estimate. Around 11,884 deaths per day.

The actual 7-day death counts from last week topped out at 393 on 7/13. They will likely rise to over 400 over the next few days as the numbers get adjusted. But for now, we can say that the death rate in April 2020 was about 30 times the death rate today. Not sliced and diced by age or comorbidities or anything like that. Just everything all lumped together and averaged out.
so, vaccines work. 

 
So, vaccines work. 
Vaccines weren't strictly necessary to significantly lower the death rates -- death rates dropped from about 1% (above) to 0.2% by mid-January 2021 (inputs below).

What vaccines have done, in retrospect, is get us closer to the pandemic's endpoint (equilibrium, not disappearance) more safely -- with less infirmity and death than we'd have had without them. And really, until Delta showed up, vaccinations were sharply curtailing detected case counts (look at May-June 2021 in Worldometers). We kind of got unlucky with Delta and Omicron -- I'm not convinced, looking back, that those kinds of variants were really the inevitabilities that some researchers seem to posit.

=======

3,515  = 1/12/2021 deaths
(counting back 14 days to 12/29/2020)
189,707 = 12/29/2020 detected cases
1,592,780 = 12/29/2020 detected cases * true count multiplier

 
Oregon numbers are weird. Been on a slight decline since beginning of July but over the same time span, BA.5 became the dominant strain. It may even be close to 100% now. 

Portland hit single digit percent positivity for the first time since sometime in May.  

 
Oregon numbers are weird. Been on a slight decline since beginning of July but over the same time span, BA.5 became the dominant strain. It may even be close to 100% now. 

Portland hit single digit percent positivity for the first time since sometime in May.  


This and some evidence from here in Louisiana makes me think that prior (recent) Omicron infection is more protective of future B5 infection than authorities are saying.  Here in LA areas in the eastern part of the state got hit with Omicron pretty hard in June and July and are now seeing basically flat levels of infections with B5, while other parts of the state which did not see large infection numbers until B5 came along are seeing rising numbers now.  

 
This and some evidence from here in Louisiana makes me think that prior (recent) Omicron infection is more protective of future B5 infection than authorities are saying.  Here in LA areas in the eastern part of the state got hit with Omicron pretty hard in June and July and are now seeing basically flat levels of infections with B5, while other parts of the state which did not see large infection numbers until B5 came along are seeing rising numbers now.  


There was an article on CNN yesterday that referenced a draft study out of Qatar that concluded that infection from BA1/2 in the spring is about 75% effective against BA4/5, if your antibodies are still hanging around.  This is also giving hope that the current Omicron specific vaccine formulas are good for all of the variants of Omicron to date.

 
here was an article on CNN yesterday that referenced a draft study out of Qatar that concluded that infection from BA1/2 in the spring is about 75% effective against BA4/5, if your antibodies are still hanging around.  This is also giving hope that the current Omicron specific vaccine formulas are good for all of the variants of Omicron to date.
There was a subvariant of BA.2, BA.2.12.1, that pushed BA.1 and BA.2 out of the U.S. by mid-May of this year. I have read bits and pieces in recent weeks that antibodies elicited specifically by BA.2.12.1 give significant protection against BA.4 and BA.5 (though BA.4 is not getting a foothold in the U.S. for some reason).

I started looking for some citations for the "BA.2.12.1 antibodies protect against BA.4/5" thing. I haven't found the easy-breezy layman's explanation in a link yet, but I did find this article about researchers determining that BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 share specific immune-escape traits and can thus be distinguished as a group apart from BA.1 and BA.2.

EDIT: That BA.2.12.1 became the dominant strain in the U.S. is important. I also read that this was not true in other parts of the world, and so right now it's thought that the U.S. has more protection collectively against BA.5 than other countries. Looking for a cite for this, as well.

 
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