kroyrunner89
Footballguy
First and foremost, mods, if this belongs in another section of the forum I apologize profusely. If you feel the need to move it I'm sure I'll find it. Some of you may remember me from various NFL wagering threads week to week last year, while I'd like to post those against this season this is something I'd also like to track. Trends are a widely debated topic among handicappers in today's day and age. While trends come in many forms and shapes, there are some cappers who believe that they can be an incredibly useful tool when it comes to picking winner, then there are other cappers like myself who believe that they aren't useful at all. Listed below are 32 trends, one for each team, that have stunning winning percentages (or losing percentages if it's one you're supposed to fade). While some of them have reasoning that makes sense and others make no sense at all, many cappers new to betting NFL will see a trend with a high winning percentage and immediately jump on board. My goal here is to show that trends such as these offer no advantage to a handicapper whatsoever. These 32 trends below have accumulated a record of 447-67 by playing or fading them in the situation mentioned. That's an 87% winning rate. This season we'll track these trends going forward, and show that they'll come nowhere near that 87% mark, and possibly not even make you a profit. Hope you all enjoy the thread, and feel free to help out identifying when one of these trends is in play if I happen to miss it!
"Trends to Play"
* BUFFALO is on a 13-2 UNDER the total (+10.8 Units) run on the road vs. teams giving up 17 or less PPG
* MIAMI is on a 11-0 UNDER the total (+11 Units) run at home revenging a home loss against opponent
* NY GIANTS are on a 11-0 UNDER the total (+11 Units) run as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points
* NEW ENGLAND is on a 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) run vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% to 60%)
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) run vs. teams scoring 29 or more PPG
* NY JETS are 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more PYPG since '07
* Over the L2 seasons, WASHINGTON is 10-1 UNDER the total (+8.9 Units) as favorites
* Over the L2 seasons, BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. teams with a losing record
* CLEVELAND is on a 8-0 UNDER the total (+8 Units) run against NFC South division opponents
* GREEN BAY is on a 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) run at home vs. good teams (teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG)
* PITTSBURGH is on a 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) run vs. top-level teams (Win Pct. > 75%)
* HOUSTON is 9-0 UNDER the total (+9 Units) vs. teams with a losing record since '07
* INDIANAPOLIS is on a 23-4 OVER the total (+18.6 Units) run on the road coming off an upset loss as a favorite
* CAROLINA is on a 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) run at home vs. excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 YPG
* Over the L2 seasons, NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in non-conference games
* TENNESSEE is on a 26-9 OVER the total (+16.1 Units) run vs. poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 YPG
* TAMPA BAY is on a 27-8 UNDER the total (+18.2 Units) run in the first two weeks of the season
* ARIZONA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more PYA since '07
* KANSAS CITY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since '07
* SAN FRANCISCO is on a 16-3 OVER the total (+12.7 Units) run on the road vs. poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 YPR
* SAN DIEGO is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since '07
"Fade Trends"
* DALLAS is on a 3-20 ATS (-19 Units) skid on the road after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
* CHICAGO is on a 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) skid after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games
* CINCINNATI was 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as favorites last season.
* DETROIT is on a 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) skid vs. teams scoring 14 or less PPG
* MINNESOTA is on a 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) skid vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less yards per pass attempt
* ATLANTA is on a 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) skid at home vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse
* Over the L2 seasons, JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) as home favorites
* DENVER is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since '07
* SEATTLE is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) on the road vs. teams scoring 24 or more PPG since '07.
* OAKLAND is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since '07
* ST LOUIS is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in the first month of the season since '07
"Trends to Play"
* BUFFALO is on a 13-2 UNDER the total (+10.8 Units) run on the road vs. teams giving up 17 or less PPG
* MIAMI is on a 11-0 UNDER the total (+11 Units) run at home revenging a home loss against opponent
* NY GIANTS are on a 11-0 UNDER the total (+11 Units) run as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points
* NEW ENGLAND is on a 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) run vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% to 60%)
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) run vs. teams scoring 29 or more PPG
* NY JETS are 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more PYPG since '07
* Over the L2 seasons, WASHINGTON is 10-1 UNDER the total (+8.9 Units) as favorites
* Over the L2 seasons, BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. teams with a losing record
* CLEVELAND is on a 8-0 UNDER the total (+8 Units) run against NFC South division opponents
* GREEN BAY is on a 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) run at home vs. good teams (teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG)
* PITTSBURGH is on a 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) run vs. top-level teams (Win Pct. > 75%)
* HOUSTON is 9-0 UNDER the total (+9 Units) vs. teams with a losing record since '07
* INDIANAPOLIS is on a 23-4 OVER the total (+18.6 Units) run on the road coming off an upset loss as a favorite
* CAROLINA is on a 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) run at home vs. excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 YPG
* Over the L2 seasons, NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in non-conference games
* TENNESSEE is on a 26-9 OVER the total (+16.1 Units) run vs. poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 YPG
* TAMPA BAY is on a 27-8 UNDER the total (+18.2 Units) run in the first two weeks of the season
* ARIZONA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more PYA since '07
* KANSAS CITY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since '07
* SAN FRANCISCO is on a 16-3 OVER the total (+12.7 Units) run on the road vs. poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 YPR
* SAN DIEGO is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since '07
"Fade Trends"
* DALLAS is on a 3-20 ATS (-19 Units) skid on the road after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
* CHICAGO is on a 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) skid after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games
* CINCINNATI was 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as favorites last season.
* DETROIT is on a 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) skid vs. teams scoring 14 or less PPG
* MINNESOTA is on a 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) skid vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less yards per pass attempt
* ATLANTA is on a 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) skid at home vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse
* Over the L2 seasons, JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) as home favorites
* DENVER is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since '07
* SEATTLE is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) on the road vs. teams scoring 24 or more PPG since '07.
* OAKLAND is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since '07
* ST LOUIS is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in the first month of the season since '07
