Opportunity is always a big part of upside. People love to focus only on talent, but it's because there's room for a breakout that a breakout occurs. In Jones' case, we have a real opportunity if he performs.
Ocho will be 32 1/2 to start the 2010 season, and while not yet finished, he should be getting to that risky downside before long, sometime the next couple years, where he can't separate like he used to. In 2011 Ocho will be 33 1/2, and by then we may be talking about him as a WR clearly on the decline. Coles for whatever reason just hasn't been a factor and I've read a few news sources suggest he will be let go. Caldwell is simply not a special talent. Simpson to this point has been unable to figure anything out, and he was even behind Quan Cosby on the DC last year. Hard to see him suddenly becoming a go to guy. Henry of course is no longer with us. And there is no other WR on the roster waiting in the wings. Even if they draft someone high it usually takes time for them to develop, and sometimes they never do (Simpson was a 2nd rounder).
To me, this screams opportunity for Jones. Of course it hinges on whether he can get the job done and whether he can keep his nose clean, but approaching the 2011 season we could be talking about a 28 year old WR1 expected to grab 80+ balls and a good share of TDs. When I've hit on guys like M Walker and J Finley and others, it's been because it was so clear to me that they were on the cusp of opportunity and they already had the required talent to shine. I see Jones as an excellent candidate for a good year in 2010 and a better year in 2011 IF the character concerns don't again arise and if he puts forth the effort.
Good post.However, Jones is really only a part of this equation. If Palmer were to rebound to his form from a few years ago, and if the offensive philosophy/playcalling followed suit, there could be real value. But the fact is that Palmer has regressed severely. Consider:
Compare 2004-2007 Palmer to 2008-2009 Palmer:
Passing attempts dropped from 33.4 per game (2004-2007) to 29.8 (2008-2009)
Completion percentage dropped from 64.1% to 59.5%
Yards per attempt dropped from 7.3 to 6.4
Yards per game dropped from 244 to 191
TD percentage dropped from 5.1% to 4.0%
Sack percentage increased from 4.5% to 5.9%
Suppose Palmer again throws for 3094 yards and 21 TDs, as he did in 16 games in 2009. With Ocho as the WR1, what is the upside for Jones in 2010? Last year the WR2 was Coles (43/514/5), who finished as WR55 (FBG scoring). Doesn't it seem as if Palmer is going to have to be significantly better for Jones to make an impact?
And even if the goal is to wait out Ocho's decline, meaning you can accept keeping Jones on your bench in 2010, that's a long time to sit on him to wait for what has to be termed as longshot potential. Unless you have deep dynasty rosters, it's hard to sit on a veteran WR that long waiting for value to emerge. Usually, those non-productive bench spots are reserved for younger players who are more likely to have real breakout potential.