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Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Evil G
- Start date
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
From Rotoworld:
Lamar Miller - RB - Dolphins
After training all offseason with Lamar Miller, Frank Gore compared Miller to former Miami (FL) teammate Clinton Portis.
"Lamar is probably the fastest," Gore said when comparing Edgerrin James, himself, Portis, and Willis McGahee. "He reminds me of Portis." Per the Miami Herald, the Dolphins "privately" believe Miller can develop into "not merely a good starting back, but a great one." If Miller shows pass-protection competency in training camp, he will enter the season as an every-down feature back.
Source: Miami Herald
Jul 15 - 1:48 PM
Lamar Miller - RB - Dolphins
After training all offseason with Lamar Miller, Frank Gore compared Miller to former Miami (FL) teammate Clinton Portis.
"Lamar is probably the fastest," Gore said when comparing Edgerrin James, himself, Portis, and Willis McGahee. "He reminds me of Portis." Per the Miami Herald, the Dolphins "privately" believe Miller can develop into "not merely a good starting back, but a great one." If Miller shows pass-protection competency in training camp, he will enter the season as an every-down feature back.
Source: Miami Herald
Jul 15 - 1:48 PM
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
That is pure madness. Ridley had just as much promise last summer and he only went for around 10 dollars, give or take, in most leagues. Unless I see and hear great things out of him in August, I will pass.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
That is insane.
Just like drafting miller in the first 4 overall picks would be insane.
jurb26
Footballguy
There's still at least 2guys ahead of him that I'd take him over on thy ADP.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
I was thinking the same thing, though I think I might take Wilson ahead of him. Tough call.
Faust
MVP
Sabertooth
Footballguy
In redraft I'd much rather Sproles as a sold RB 2
jurb26
Footballguy
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yes in Ppr
Doesn't everybody have Sproles ahead of Miller in PPR? Sproles is going over a round before Miller in the drafts I'm seeing. I saw a big buy-in PPR draft where Sproles went with the 12th pick.
Wilson vs Miller is the real wild card. Those guys are getting picked all over the map.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
habsfan
Footballguy
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I dont even use that website at all. Its one of the worst showings on the net, particularly the game day set ups.
Stewyfootballhead
Footballguy
grabbed both, Wilson in 2nd and Miller in 3rd in dynasty start-up, very pleased, they both have skills and opportunity.
Shutout
Footballguy
Agree but, as a whole, I think Miller is vastly overrated. I didn't read this entire thread but I am sure I am in the minority on that.
I think he will be in that top 17-20 range, maybe like Bradshaw usually ends up but I think Sproles in ppr is much safer to end up 15 or higher.
Reaper
Footballguy
Went 3.03 in a FFPC Pros Vs Joes to a "Pro" ahead of Bush..... David Wilson fell to 4.11!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBCf16Nz0wc
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Situational isn't completely accurate. Sproles is only a situational RB, because he also, essentially, plays WR. He was a RB1 in PPR leagues last year.
And I don't think we know that Miller is the goalline back yet. I think we are right to be 90+% sure he starts - but we don't even know that yet.
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JFS171
Footballguy
The hype is getting out of control... I just sold to a team loaded with WRs that needed a RB (I have Trent and Morris and a need at WR).
Essentially landed Demaryius for Miller and a medium DST upgrade (nothing outlandish), which is widely unpredictable year to year anyway. Point being, shop Miller - may be surprised what you find.
This screams Ryan Mathews part II to me, and while I don't necessarily doubt Miller's talent (I'm not the best at evaluating prospects, so I leave that to others) or his situaiton (they certainly talk the talk and have thus far walked the walk with him being the lead back), but that O-line isn't special. Even if Miller IS special enough to produce with that o-line, I think the hype's out of control. If nothing else, I think teams can get much *safer* assets with similar scoring upside for Miller.
He's the shiny new toy...
Essentially landed Demaryius for Miller and a medium DST upgrade (nothing outlandish), which is widely unpredictable year to year anyway. Point being, shop Miller - may be surprised what you find.
This screams Ryan Mathews part II to me, and while I don't necessarily doubt Miller's talent (I'm not the best at evaluating prospects, so I leave that to others) or his situaiton (they certainly talk the talk and have thus far walked the walk with him being the lead back), but that O-line isn't special. Even if Miller IS special enough to produce with that o-line, I think the hype's out of control. If nothing else, I think teams can get much *safer* assets with similar scoring upside for Miller.
He's the shiny new toy...
Faust
MVP
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
brohan.Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.
jurb26
Footballguy
his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.
slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.
Lots of colorful adjectives and strong opinions in this post but extremely light on facts and analysis.
Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.
In 2012 the Dolphins ran for 1,802 yards. Of that amount, R.Bush accounted for 986 yards (55%) and Miller for 250 yards (14%).
For 2013, Bush is gone and every indication is that Miller will take over as lead back. Thomas is still there and will get a share.
Losing Jake Long was a blow, but Clabo is not a bad replacement and there have been upgrades at WR and Tannehill stands to improve on his rookie year.
So not unreasonable to assume that Miami matches their 1,802 total rush yard total from 2012. From there, give Miller 60% of the total which is simply Bush's 986 yards and adds on another 100 yards since there has been no notable RB replacement for Bush. The rest we can give to D. Thomas.
That gives Miller a stat line of 1,086 rush yards, good for 14th in the NFL in 2012. Plus a fair share of TD's and receptions on par with most Top 15 RB's.
In most leagues, that's a high-end RB2 performance using pretty conservative assumptions.
So why exactly is it "absurd" to take a guy like that at ADP RB21?
moleculo
Footballguy
are you sure those are the numbers to consider when pondering "absolute best case"?Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.
slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
I own Miller in 14 Team League and 3 owners have interest and his value ranges from one owner wanted him for Pitta straight up, to possibly getting DMurray from another one, to low wr.
I don't know what to think. Rather have proven in Murray, but don't really want to hold onto 2? in Mathews and Miller
I don't know what to think. Rather have proven in Murray, but don't really want to hold onto 2? in Mathews and Miller
SWC
Bromigo
who do you like better bush in detroit the once proud motor city and manufacturing captial of the us or miller in miami where the nortnern girls knock me out at night riddle me that brohans because personally i think that bush is in a better position to succeed with lots of wrs who can fly around like jet fighters attacking commies and matt the gun slinging palooka chucking him the ball and running around the edge so take that to the bank comrad brohanskievs
How has the line got worse? They played a ton without Long last year and when he did play he was a mediocre tackle. As long as Martin doesn't completely flop at LT, the line will be as good as it was last year.Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.
slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.
Daniel Thomas is a plodder who can't stay healthy, but his threat as a goal line vulture is justifiable. After 2 years he hasn't shown that he's a threat to take on the feature back role, Miller will get every opportunity to be the main guy in the offense, he looked great last year in limited time. Thomas' playing time over Miller last year was based on his experience he was statistically one of the worst RB's in the league and looked considerably worse than Miller.
32 teams passed on Arian Foster 7 times, whats your point?
gianmarco
Footballguy
The bolded above is almost completely irrelevant at this point. Teams miss on player's talent levels all the time. It matters mostly during a rookie year or when pondering what a team might do with said player in the future. It doesn't matter as much in terms of actual talent beyond that point. Since it's about as clear as can be at this point that Miami is entrusting Miller to be the guy based on all that's been said, reported, and actions taken, what unfolded in the 2012 draft is not a reason to cap his upside this year.Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.
slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.
As for what Miami did last year, as bad as they may have been, R. Bush still finished RB14 in 1 ppr last year. This is the same R. Bush that, as the #2 overall pick back in 2006, has topped 1000 yards only once in his 7 years in the league (you know, since previous draft placement is an obvious indicator of talent). And no, he didn't even top 1000 yards last year. He also had only 35 receptions, so it's not as if that heavily inflated his numbers either.
So, unless you think Miller has no shot of replicating Bush's numbers last year, RB18 as his best scenario is nonsense. Leshoure was RB18 last year. And he didn't even top 800 yards rushing.
You saying his best case scenario as RB18 is about as silly as me saying his worst case scenario is RB10. I can like the guy and still see that there is potential for failure. It seems so odd to me to hate a guy so much that you think he has no chance to hit 190 pts as the lead ball carrier on an improving team (addition of Wallace, Keller, 2nd year for Tannehill, etc.). Or even on a worse team.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
You're not down with the SWC. It's okay. It's an unfortunate affliction, but you'll make it through.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Post deleted due to math error -- I'll revisit when not on my phone later.
jurb26
Footballguy
Exactly. It's Coeur de lions's use of "best case" that has eliminated any credibility he has on the topic IMO.The bolded above is almost completely irrelevant at this point. Teams miss on player's talent levels all the time. It matters mostly during a rookie year or when pondering what a team might do with said player in the future. It doesn't matter as much in terms of actual talent beyond that point. Since it's about as clear as can be at this point that Miami is entrusting Miller to be the guy based on all that's been said, reported, and actions taken, what unfolded in the 2012 draft is not a reason to cap his upside this year.Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.
slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.
As for what Miami did last year, as bad as they may have been, R. Bush still finished RB14 in 1 ppr last year. This is the same R. Bush that, as the #2 overall pick back in 2006, has topped 1000 yards only once in his 7 years in the league (you know, since previous draft placement is an obvious indicator of talent). And no, he didn't even top 1000 yards last year. He also had only 35 receptions, so it's not as if that heavily inflated his numbers either.
So, unless you think Miller has no shot of replicating Bush's numbers last year, RB18 as his best scenario is nonsense. Leshoure was RB18 last year. And he didn't even top 800 yards rushing.
You saying his best case scenario as RB18 is about as silly as me saying his worst case scenario is RB10. I can like the guy and still see that there is potential for failure. It seems so odd to me to hate a guy so much that you think he has no chance to hit 190 pts as the lead ball carrier on an improving team (addition of Wallace, Keller, 2nd year for Tannehill, etc.). Or even on a worse team.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
OK -- saying RB18 is his reasonable upside destroys my credibility? LOL.
For the sake of discussion, I'll give him 1000 yards rushing, even though that's more than Bush (who really played damn well his two years in Miami) had in 2012. That still leaves about 90 points to make up to hit RB18ish levels. Bush had 35 catches, and receiving is a huge strength for him. IMO 20 catches for Miller is very reasonable considering his issues in protection and the fact that Thomas had almost 3x the work as a receiver last year and is a decent pass blocker. So another 40 points there (giving a generous 10 YPR to Miller). 8 TDs is definitely generous -- Miami RBs had 13 total last year and again, Thomas seems more suited for the short yardage work. And those stats wouldn't quite get him to RB18. And that's if he holds up and is featured as a runner.
You guys are all reading the July coachspeak, reading the writer speculation, and blindly gulping the Kool Aid. Have at it, but you're totally ignoring the fact that this coaching staff gave Daniel Thomas (yeah, crappy Daniel Thomas) almost 2x as many carries / game and almost 3x as many catches / game just last year. You're also ignoring the historical hit rates on 4th round talent at RB, which, BTW, isn't irrelevant in the least given the sample size of NFL work we have to work on with Lamar Miller. It's completely unrealistic to think that he's a Pro Bowl talent just waiting to explode -- if that were the case he absolutely would have played more last year. He might be the leading rusher in 2013, but it's by default. A team with a ton of holes (wisely, given this years crappy skill position class) decided to fill the other ones first in the draft. That's it.
Of course Miller could blow up and put up a top 15 season. So could Zac Stacy. So could Knowshon Moreno. Anything can happen in the NFL. But as far as a reasonable upside projection the chances of it happening are so laughably small, considering Miller's pedigree and situation, that it shouldn't be accounted for. A reasonable middle ground for Miller is RBBC with Thomas and possibly Gilleslee and others. A reasonable upside projection is similar to the one I outlined above. And with 57 career touches, he carries big time outright bust risk. Sorry, but he's an absurd pick early in the 3rd round in redraft.
For the sake of discussion, I'll give him 1000 yards rushing, even though that's more than Bush (who really played damn well his two years in Miami) had in 2012. That still leaves about 90 points to make up to hit RB18ish levels. Bush had 35 catches, and receiving is a huge strength for him. IMO 20 catches for Miller is very reasonable considering his issues in protection and the fact that Thomas had almost 3x the work as a receiver last year and is a decent pass blocker. So another 40 points there (giving a generous 10 YPR to Miller). 8 TDs is definitely generous -- Miami RBs had 13 total last year and again, Thomas seems more suited for the short yardage work. And those stats wouldn't quite get him to RB18. And that's if he holds up and is featured as a runner.
You guys are all reading the July coachspeak, reading the writer speculation, and blindly gulping the Kool Aid. Have at it, but you're totally ignoring the fact that this coaching staff gave Daniel Thomas (yeah, crappy Daniel Thomas) almost 2x as many carries / game and almost 3x as many catches / game just last year. You're also ignoring the historical hit rates on 4th round talent at RB, which, BTW, isn't irrelevant in the least given the sample size of NFL work we have to work on with Lamar Miller. It's completely unrealistic to think that he's a Pro Bowl talent just waiting to explode -- if that were the case he absolutely would have played more last year. He might be the leading rusher in 2013, but it's by default. A team with a ton of holes (wisely, given this years crappy skill position class) decided to fill the other ones first in the draft. That's it.
Of course Miller could blow up and put up a top 15 season. So could Zac Stacy. So could Knowshon Moreno. Anything can happen in the NFL. But as far as a reasonable upside projection the chances of it happening are so laughably small, considering Miller's pedigree and situation, that it shouldn't be accounted for. A reasonable middle ground for Miller is RBBC with Thomas and possibly Gilleslee and others. A reasonable upside projection is similar to the one I outlined above. And with 57 career touches, he carries big time outright bust risk. Sorry, but he's an absurd pick early in the 3rd round in redraft.
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moleculo
Footballguy
You could have just said that you meant "reasonable upside" when you said "absolute best case".
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I'd rather deal in reasonable I suppose. It's technically possible for anything to happen, including Barry Sanders coming out of retirement to break the all time YFS and TD records in 2013. That doesn't mean that it's worth discussing, or accounting for in projections.
Warrior
Footballguy
Translated: "I was wrong. I shouldn't have said "absolute best case scenario". That was obviously stupid. Forgive me for my mistake and please quit taking me to the woodshed for the error I made. Now I'll mention Barry Sanders to try and change the subject so we don't focus anymore on my wrong-ness"Coeur de Lion said:
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Just an FYI:
There were 23 RBs last year with 200+ carries. Of those 23, here were the only ones to finish below RB18 with 1 ppr:
Ballard 33rd
DMC 25th
BJGE 21st
Turner 22nd
Bradshaw 20th
Greene 19th
On that list, Ballard/BJGE/Greene are as mediocre as it gets. Turner was a shell of himself. And DMC/Bradshaw battled injuries.
If Miller tops 200 carries, which all indications at this point say he will, RB18 is probably his floor barring him being awful. His 4.9 ypc last year on 50 carries says otherwise (as does watching him).
Just saying.
There were 23 RBs last year with 200+ carries. Of those 23, here were the only ones to finish below RB18 with 1 ppr:
Ballard 33rd
DMC 25th
BJGE 21st
Turner 22nd
Bradshaw 20th
Greene 19th
On that list, Ballard/BJGE/Greene are as mediocre as it gets. Turner was a shell of himself. And DMC/Bradshaw battled injuries.
If Miller tops 200 carries, which all indications at this point say he will, RB18 is probably his floor barring him being awful. His 4.9 ypc last year on 50 carries says otherwise (as does watching him).
Just saying.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Depends on his use as a receiver (and the Miami offense only got Bush 35 catches last year) and short yardage (for which the straight line plodder Thomas seems like a better fit).
Is a stat line of 225 - 1000, 20 - 150, 6 TDs hugely unrealistic to you? That would have been RB23 last year.
gianmarco
Footballguy
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