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Iran anti-government protest growing. Calls for Ayatollah to step down (1 Viewer)

It’s a good sign for sure. 

But there is a distinction between calling for the current leaders to resign and calling for an end to Iran’s form of government. I’m not sure they’re desiring a more democratic system, peace with the west, an end to Islamism, etc., all the things that would make us happy. We’ll just have to wait and see. 

 
Iran is going to topple.  They had pressure before, an the new sanctions are going to cripple them.  And now they have the airplane issue.

 
Eh, it kind of feels like the protests are almost as staged as the attack on our base. The outcome seems pre-determined -- the people flood the streets, blow off some steam, and by next week everything will be back to business as usual.

 
It’s a good sign for sure. 

But there is a distinction between calling for the current leaders to resign and calling for an end to Iran’s form of government. I’m not sure they’re desiring a more democratic system, peace with the west, an end to Islamism, etc., all the things that would make us happy. We’ll just have to wait and see. 
It is not going to happen right now.  Those in power will try to squash the protesters.  I do think eventually the Iranian people will win out over their archaic government.

 
How does Trump gain support and trust of the moderates in Iran who were pissed off when he pulled out of the JCPOA? 

 
It is not going to happen right now.  Those in power will try to squash the protesters.  I do think eventually the Iranian people will win out over their archaic government.
I’ve always believed, optimistically, that all non-Democratic governments will eventually fail. But I don’t know when. 

 
 It was reported on Danish TV the protest in Tehran had about 1000 protesters if I heard correctly. That's not exactly a griundswell. I think the ayatollahs will last a while longer

 
 It was reported on Danish TV the protest in Tehran had about 1000 protesters if I heard correctly. That's not exactly a griundswell. I think the ayatollahs will last a while longer
Well protesters are not looked kindly on in Iran.   Those people protesting are risking their lives.

 
Well protesters are not looked kindly on in Iran.   Those people protesting are risking their lives.
Granted. BBC reported "scores" protesting in other cities (so, some multiple of 20, but not a large multiple of 20). That's still not many. IIRC the crowds last time around (that were brutally suppressed) had much larger crowds. Could be that people are staying home because of fear, or because the cause is not compelling enough or because it's the day after the weekend, we'll never know. In a country of 80+ millions, a thousand people on the streets still isn't rocking any boats

 
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Iran is going to topple.  They had pressure before, an the new sanctions are going to cripple them.  And now they have the airplane issue.
I wish I had any confidence in that. Yes, it’s better that there’s no Soleimani for this but he wasn’t the only military leader calling for the last protests to be shut down with blood. 

 
msommer said:
Granted. BBC reported "scores" protesting in other cities (so, some multiple of 20, but not a large multiple of 20). That's still not many. IIRC the crowds last time around (that were brutally suppressed) had much larger crowds. Could be that people are staying home because of fear, or because the cause is not compelling enough or because it's the day after the weekend, we'll never know. In a country of 80+ millions, a thousand people on the streets still isn't rocking any boats
I agree, but like all protests it rocks boats for the cameras and media.

 
msommer said:
 It was reported on Danish TV the protest in Tehran had about 1000 protesters if I heard correctly. That's not exactly a griundswell. I think the ayatollahs will last a while longer
There were millions in Venezuela that protested Chávez and Maduro in the biggest marches. It's only gotten worse since then.

1000 is nothing. Tehran has over 8m people.

 
There were millions in Venezuela that protested Chávez and Maduro in the biggest marches. It's only gotten worse since then.

1000 is nothing. Tehran has over 8m people.
8m people who live in fear of protesting.  It is not like the USA where protesters can rule the streets without fear of retribution.   Tehran has many educated people, after all the killing of protesters last year would you risk your life and your family?

 
8m people who live in fear of protesting.  It is not like the USA where protesters can rule the streets without fear of retribution.   Tehran has many educated people, after all the killing of protesters last year would you risk your life and your family?
Living in an authoritarian state means you fear protesting.  My point was that even huge popular uprisings can yield nothing beneficial for the people or diminish authoritarianism.

 
msommer said:
 It was reported on Danish TV the protest in Tehran had about 1000 protesters if I heard correctly. That's not exactly a griundswell. I think the ayatollahs will last a while longer
I’ve never stepped foot in Iran, so my opinion is meaningless.  But I tend to agree that these numbers seem too small to be regime toppling crowds 

 
The Green Revolution happened in 2009 and Iran just jailed or killed the protesting dissidents. Nothing came of some very serious demonstrations.

This article, a "view" column written by Eli Lake of Bloomberg News, traces a lack of Presidential response under Obama to a desire for the nuclear deal between the state powers rather than regime change.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-08-24/why-obama-let-iran-s-green-revolution-fail

Doesn't look like much power to the people here on all sides, I'm sort of sad to say. Wasn't under Bush II, either, who saw fit to target Iraq as our deadliest enemy when sll signs pointed a little more cosmopolitan and East. 

 
No doubt we are behind the scenes trying whatever we cam to topple this regime. The people of Iran want and need our help.

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
Iran is going to topple.  They had pressure before, an the new sanctions are going to cripple them.  And now they have the airplane issue.
Disagree.  The military backs the Ayatollah and there is no way a couple thousand protesters are taking down the military on their own.

 
John Blutarsky said:
Who is staging them?
Soros, duh

Disagree.  The military backs the Ayatollah and there is no way a couple thousand protesters are taking down the military on their own.
Whatever protesters that are out there are going to get crushed. It's already started and will escalate today until they disperse. Iran cares little for public or international opinion. They will put this down & hard and the mullahs will continue to reign. My :2cents:

 
Soros, duh

Whatever protesters that are out there are going to get crushed. It's already started and will escalate today until they disperse. Iran cares little for public or international opinion. They will put this down & hard and the mullahs will continue to reign. My :2cents:
Iran is who we thought they were, they are who we thought they were.

 
Soros, duh

Whatever protesters that are out there are going to get crushed. It's already started and will escalate today until they disperse. Iran cares little for public or international opinion. They will put this down & hard and the mullahs will continue to reign. My :2cents:
I don’t think they’re called mullahs in Iran. Other than that I agree 100%. 

 
Protesters ripped down pictures of Solaimani.  Iran in the spotlight now so it will be difficult to kill protesters like in the past.

CNN:  This moment seems different.

Unlike the previous groundswell of opposition, response to the downing of the Ukrainian passenger plane has triggered condemnation from conservatives too, who typically support the government. The editor in chief of right-wing Tasnim news agency -- which is tied to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps -- criticized Iran's leaders for attempting to lie to the public. "Officials who misled the media are guilty too," Kian Abdollahi said on Twitter. "We are all ashamed before the people."

That shame has grown under the harsh spotlight of a relentless news cycle and the outcry from Iranians on social media.

Though Iran's state media did not cover this weekend's protests, images and cellphone videos shared on social media has amplified the message of civilian anger. So too have public figures, who have spoken out online at great personal risk.

Oscar-nominated Taraneh Alidoosti, Iran's most popular female actor, took to Instagram on Sunday to bluntly criticize the government, telling millions of followers that Iranians were "not citizens," but "captives." "I fought this dream for a long time and didn't want to accept it. We are not citizens. We never were. We are captives," she wrote.

"Ultimately the Islamic Republic is under pressure, because people really do want accountability and transparency," Vakil said.

Perhaps Iran's government spokesman described the situation best. In commentary published in the semiofficial Fars News Agency, Ali Rabiee said that the regime's delayed admission to downing the plane had "irreparably damaged the relationship between us and our nation."

The question now is what Tehran will do about it.

 
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Real time evidence that Iran is a dictatorship: after admitting that the plane was shot down as an error (which I personally believe to be true by the way) Iran announced that it had arrested several of those responsible. 

Free countries don’t arrest people for errors. 

 
Real time evidence that Iran is a dictatorship: after admitting that the plane was shot down as an error (which I personally believe to be true by the way) Iran announced that it had arrested several of those responsible. 

Free countries don’t arrest people for errors. 
Negligent Homicide?

 
Real time evidence that Iran is a dictatorship: after admitting that the plane was shot down as an error (which I personally believe to be true by the way) Iran announced that it had arrested several of those responsible. 

Free countries don’t arrest people for errors. 
Arrested?  Those people responsible might be put to death.   They have taken all the heat off Trump and put it on Iran. Now Iran is under the microscope, not that they should not have been already.

 
No doubt we are behind the scenes trying whatever we cam to topple this regime. The people of Iran want and need our help.
They need whatever help and support the western world can give them.  Unfortunately, the Iranian regime will not be toppled until it loses the support of the military.  Which does not appear to be a serious risk at this time.  All the protesting in the world won’t topple an authoritarian regime that has the backing of the military.  

i hope it happens in our lifetime, but it is certainly not on the immediate horizon (although it may be “imminent”, as that term is used by the Trump administration). 

 
All the protesting in the world won’t topple an authoritarian regime that has the backing of the military.  
So very very very true.  If the autocrats can keep the military brass happy, they can crush whatever popular uprising comes about.  See Venezuela for a recent example.

 
So very very very true.  If the autocrats can keep the military brass happy, they can crush whatever popular uprising comes about.  See Venezuela for a recent example.
Yeah, that's a problem. No doubt there are plenty in the military there that would love to topple the govt but the risk of death is too great.

 
Yeah, that's a problem. No doubt there are plenty in the military there that would love to topple the govt but the risk of death is too great.
I actually doubt that.  I think autocrats know that they can simply pay off the brass in a variety of ways to keep them in line.  The only risk is a true strongman coming through the ranks of the government to seize power.  So keeping the top level guys down a peg is also key.

In Venezeuela, the brass gets paid off via skiming from narco traffic.  Not sure how it works in Iran.  Maybe skimming off oil and gas exports.

 
I actually doubt that.  I think autocrats know that they can simply pay off the brass in a variety of ways to keep them in line.  The only risk is a true strongman coming through the ranks of the government to seize power.  So keeping the top level guys down a peg is also key.

In Venezeuela, the brass gets paid off via skiming from narco traffic.  Not sure how it works in Iran.  Maybe skimming off oil and gas exports.
Don't discount narco smuggling. Iran borders on Afganistan, Turkey, Azerbadjan, the Black Sea, Armenia and Turkmenistan. In addition and has assets in play all the way from Iraq to the Mediterranean. Lots of ways that could come in handy when moving drugs

 

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