How big is the drop-off (1 Viewer)

[ChuckLiddell]

I dont watch a whole lot of college ball, but as a Dolphins fan I have become quite interested in who the next possible franchise QB will end up being. As a long-time fan of this team, I am confident that we will screw up the Suck for Luck sweepstakes with a win in week 16 or 17. So how far of a drop is it to Barkley, Jones, Foles, and other possible prizes to the runner ups?

 

[shnikies]

I dont watch a whole lot of college ball, but as a Dolphins fan I have become quite interested in who the next possible franchise QB will end up being. As a long-time fan of this team, I am confident that we will screw up the Suck for Luck sweepstakes with a win in week 16 or 17. So how far of a drop is it to Barkley, Jones, Foles, and other possible prizes to the runner ups?

I think it's basically like comparing a once in a decade or more prospect to a once a year prospect. It's like the Lebron sweepstakes to put it in relative terms. He's a guy that is more than likely going to be perennial pro bowler.

 

[shnikies]

I also hope you get him. Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

 

[Scrappy Doo]

It's gonna be tough for Miami to get him. IND and STL have an easier schedule so MIA is gonna have to finish with a worse record than those teams to get #1 overall.

And yeah - the drop off is huge. If the Phins were smart (which they're clearly not), they would shut down some of the starters (IR Jake Long, trade away Marshall, etc.) to ensure that they suck ENOUGH for Luck.

I haven't seen a real consensus on the rankings of Landry Jones, Barkley or RGIII.

 

[jurb26]

I don't really know how big the gap is but I would rate Barkley as a better prospect than any of the QBs in this past class. Clearly Newton has gone on to prove that wrong, but nobody really saw that coming and I think Barkely would have a higher rating coming out of school. Barkley is very good.

 

[Instinctive]

<------------- Obvious bias here, but...

I think Jones is the clear #2 QB prospect. He has the tools to make the throws, he has the Dan Marino mobility (not flashy in the field like Vick, not huge like Roethlisberger, not fast, but he slides around in the pocket well) and his decision making is very good (which I harped on all last year...something must have clicked for him).

Something to note is that the pocket passer type college guys almost always do better than the athlete-type college guys.

I haven't seen much of Barkley, but I hear he's supposed to be very good. Brandon Wheeden is an interesting one because he's much older than most. RGIII is similar to Newton because he is an athlete, but he's got pocket skills as well. A tier or more below for sure though.

As of now?

Luck

Jones

Barkley

Others

Luck is the best, a tier to himself. Jones is a clear cut #2 in my eyes (if he does leave - he loves all the ministry stuff on campus and may stay) and then Barkley. Beyond that? ehh.

I think all 3 are better than every QB but Newton from this year's class.

 

[jurb26]

<------------- Obvious bias here, but...I think Jones is the clear #2 QB prospect. He has the tools to make the throws, he has the Dan Marino mobility (not flashy in the field like Vick, not huge like Roethlisberger, not fast, but he slides around in the pocket well) and his decision making is very good (which I harped on all last year...something must have clicked for him).Something to note is that the pocket passer type college guys almost always do better than the athlete-type college guys.I haven't seen much of Barkley, but I hear he's supposed to be very good. Brandon Wheeden is an interesting one because he's much older than most. RGIII is similar to Newton because he is an athlete, but he's got pocket skills as well. A tier or more below for sure though.As of now?LuckJonesBarkleyOthersLuck is the best, a tier to himself. Jones is a clear cut #2 in my eyes (if he does leave - he loves all the ministry stuff on campus and may stay) and then Barkley. Beyond that? ehh.I think all 3 are better than every QB but Newton from this year's class.

Barkley is the clear #2 IMO. I think Griffin is the only guy who could possibly supplant him in that spot. Both guys are better than Jones to me. Foles is interesting and I haven't seen enough of him to say where he should be. I know he can make all the throws but I don't know much else.

 

[J-Dawg]

After Luck I really like what I've been seeing from Robert Griffin III. I think he's got probably the highest upside of any QB not named Andrew Luck. He's very mobile and intelligent and is a hard worker and just an all around good kid. You won't have to worry about any character concerns with him. He's mobile as hell but also has a good arm. Rather than calling him an athlete playing QB, he's a QB that's able to run, think Steve Young or Aaron Rodgers. Not saying he'd ever be as good as those two, merely just using them as an example. If he declares he'll move way up the draft boards in the off-season and will own the combine.

Landry Jones is a bit of a wild-card, I don't like what I see from him but I can understand why others like him. I just don't think he's got a great arm and has been prone to some awful brain-farts in games I've watched him.

Matt Barkley is another guy I'm really high on. Most people already know about him so I won't go into any real depth. The only thing I can caution is that he might head back to school next year. My gut is telling me that he'll pull a Luck and opt to stay. The NCAA sanctions against USC are lifted after this year if I believe and he might feel he owes it to the program to help them get back to a bowl game before he takes the next step in his career.

Foles is a 2nd round prospect in my eyes and Ryan Tannehill will get talked up a lot but is more a case of great measurables and lack of substance. I worry he'll be this year's version of Kyle Boller. I would stay far away even though he's going to sucker somebody in with his upside.

 

[California]

Matt Barkley is another guy I'm really high on. Most people already know about him so I won't go into any real depth. The only thing I can caution is that he might head back to school next year. My gut is telling me that he'll pull a Luck and opt to stay. The NCAA sanctions against USC are lifted after this year if I believe and he might feel he owes it to the program to help them get back to a bowl game before he takes the next step in his career.

USC sanctions actually get worse next year. Starting next year they lose 10 scholarships (30 over 3 years) and are ineligible for the PAC-12 championship game. I'm not sure if they're still banned from bowl games next year also.Imho, Barkley owes USC nothing. He got recruited in 2009 by Carroll and won the Emerald Bowl his freshman year. His sophomore year is when the sanctions started with new coach Kiffin. He could have bolted but he stayed.Barkley's a great QB. I have little love for USC but it's a shame he didn't get the kind of exposure he deserves because of the sanctions.

 

[justdrop]

Matt Barkley is another guy I'm really high on. Most people already know about him so I won't go into any real depth. The only thing I can caution is that he might head back to school next year. My gut is telling me that he'll pull a Luck and opt to stay. The NCAA sanctions against USC are lifted after this year if I believe and he might feel he owes it to the program to help them get back to a bowl game before he takes the next step in his career.

USC sanctions actually get worse next year. Starting next year they lose 10 scholarships (30 over 3 years) and are ineligible for the PAC-12 championship game. I'm not sure if they're still banned from bowl games next year also.Imho, Barkley owes USC nothing. He got recruited in 2009 by Carroll and won the Emerald Bowl his freshman year. His sophomore year is when the sanctions started with new coach Kiffin. He could have bolted but he stayed.Barkley's a great QB. I have little love for USC but it's a shame he didn't get the kind of exposure he deserves because of the sanctions.

USC is NOT banned from 2012 Pac-12 championship game and is eligible for potentially both the pac-12 champ & a bowl game. USC should be better next year than this year even with the 10 scholarship reductions. Pete Carrol hired a bunch of yes-men assistant coaches his last couple years and the recruiting classes were terrible. USC's younger defensive players are much better than the older players. Lane Kiffin is a great recruiter and will find loopholes to get by the first couple years, but 2014 & 2015 is when USC will get killed Barkley's decision might come down to Matt Kalil's (top 5 pick) decision. Matt Kalil's family has money so he might stay (his older brother is Ryan Kalil of course). I doubt Barkley stays if he doesn't have a big OT protecting him next year.And I agree with the consensus. Take out Cam Newton & Andrew Luck, 2012 draft QBs >>>>>> 2011

 

[Shirtless]

Luck is about five tiers above anybody else. I've seen him play a couple times, and while there's certainly homerism coming from me, Luck is jaw-dropping.

Something that people don't talk about enough is that he IS an athlete. Look at him lay out the safety on a fumble return: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RF9PFJI_t5I, and lay out a safety on a 50+ yds run: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4_w-puInqY, and make a one-handed going out of bounds catch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zuBoOarPMQ.

Luck is not a frozen statue with an arm, like Drew Bledsoe. He can shift around in the pocket, avoid sacks, and run. Think of an Aaron Rodgers-like athleticism. He won't jump 50" in the air, but he's more athletic than your average QB. The comparisons to Elway in this regard go beyond coming from the same school.

Of course what people do talk about a lot, and what separates Luck, is how ridiculously smart he is. Two weeks ago he started calling his own plays out of the no-huddle. Coach Shaw said the plays Luck called were better than the ones he called. He audibles, checks, does all the stuff veteran QBs pick up only with experience. Somehow he has that experience already as a redshirt junior. Heard the guy next to me in the stands describe him as Peyton Manning's head on Aaron Rodgers's body.

Barkley and Jones are good. But Luck is in a league by himself, far far away from everybody else.

 

[Shrugs]

As a USC alum, I don't think Barkley will ever be a quality NFL starter. I think he's a pretty good college QB who doesn't have what it takes to be a great college QB. He has two great WRs at USC in Woods and Lee (though he is a freshman). Each of them will be NFL starters. Barkley has a quick release. He has pretty good arm strength. But he makes a lot of poor decisions. He's not good in important situations. He's bad on third downs. He's awful in the fourth quarter of close games. He throws too many what-the-hell-were-you-thinking interceptions. He's a little lacking in height. I think he's a good guy and a good leader. He's high character. I give him credit for his handling of the sanctions and keeping the team together during tough times. I think USC's next starting QB eventually will be better than Barkley. So if Barkley is the second-best QB prospect for 2012, I think there's a big gap between Luck, who is a guy I've seen a lot of since he is in the Pac.

 

[Deamon]

Jones and Barkley are both probably more highly touted then Newton and Gabbert. Those consolation prizes are like getting first overall picks most other years, so great value there. Clearly luck is in a league of his own but who knows what will happen in the nfl. Number 1 picks are never a lock.

In the last 13 years #1 overall QB's:

Tim Couch

Mike Vick

David Carr

Carson Palmer

Eli Manning

Alex Smith

Jamarcus Russell

Matt Stafford

Sam Bradford

Cam Newton

Only three have ever made a probowl (obviously more to come from the bottom three)

Throw in the 2nd and 3rd rounders since then, (Ryan Leaf, Donovan Mcnabb, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith) and we've got quite a few top 3 busts!

Not much to tell from the stats but its strange to see how many aren't even playing football anymore. That aside, I'd say Luck probably had more talent then any of those 13 guys coming out.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

I also hope you get him. Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

Nooooooooooo!!!/Jetsfan.Luck's tier is far above any other 2012 QB prospect.The gap is as large as any that I can recall. Since I've been paying attention to college football and the draft (a long time) he is the most highly-regarded, can't-miss franchise QB since the 1998 draft of Peyton and Leaf. Even in that draft there was little, if any, gap between Manning and Leaf.Now, as that draft especially showed, picking a blue chip QB is an inexact science. Both Peyton and Leaf were "can't miss" megastuds. One busted in nuclear fashion, and the other....not so much.By all accounts, though, Luck is FAR closer to Peyton than Leaf. Leaf was a tool with behavioral and maturity issues.

 

[shnikies]

I also hope you get him. Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

Nooooooooooo!!!/Jetsfan.

Luck's tier is far above any other 2012 QB prospect.

The gap is as large as any that I can recall.

Since I've been paying attention to college football and the draft (a long time) he is the most highly-regarded, can't-miss franchise QB since the 1998 draft of Peyton and Leaf. Even in that draft there was little, if any, gap between Manning and Leaf.

Now, as that draft especially showed, picking a blue chip QB is an inexact science. Both Peyton and Leaf were "can't miss" megastuds. One busted in nuclear fashion, and the other....not so much.

By all accounts, though, Luck is FAR closer to Peyton than Leaf. Leaf was a tool with behavioral and maturity issues.

Sometimes organizations are like girls that try to find project guys they can change.

 

[garosenb]

I think many of you are overlooking Russell Wilson. Extremely accurate and mobile, runs a pro-style offense and seems to have a great head on his shoulders (read how the Wisconsin locker room took to him when he arrived this summer). Having watched Luck, Jones, Griffin and Barkley, I can say that he definitely is strongly in that second tier of QBs. Personally, I think he looks better than Barkley and Griffin.

 

[pantherclub]

I also hope you get him. Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

what?

 

[moderated]

I think many of you are overlooking Russell Wilson. Extremely accurate and mobile, runs a pro-style offense and seems to have a great head on his shoulders (read how the Wisconsin locker room took to him when he arrived this summer). Having watched Luck, Jones, Griffin and Barkley, I can say that he definitely is strongly in that second tier of QBs. Personally, I think he looks better than Barkley and Griffin.

He's only 5'11.

 

[Instinctive]

I think many of you are overlooking Russell Wilson. Extremely accurate and mobile, runs a pro-style offense and seems to have a great head on his shoulders (read how the Wisconsin locker room took to him when he arrived this summer). Having watched Luck, Jones, Griffin and Barkley, I can say that he definitely is strongly in that second tier of QBs. Personally, I think he looks better than Barkley and Griffin.

He's only 5'11.

I didn't think he was old enough to come out?

 

[shnikies]

I also hope you get him. Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

what?

Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

 

[cheese]

The difference between Luck and the rest is the difference between having a top 10 NFL QB on day 1 and having a rookie QB you hope becomes good. I think its that simple.

 

[huthut]

I also hope you get him. Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

what?

Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

No one cares about the Dolphins other than Dolphin fans and maybe people in the AFCE.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

I think many of you are overlooking Russell Wilson. Extremely accurate and mobile, runs a pro-style offense and seems to have a great head on his shoulders (read how the Wisconsin locker room took to him when he arrived this summer). Having watched Luck, Jones, Griffin and Barkley, I can say that he definitely is strongly in that second tier of QBs. Personally, I think he looks better than Barkley and Griffin.

He's only 5'11.

I didn't think he was old enough to come out?

I know he was a transfer from NC State so I'm pretty sure he's at least a junior. One other thing to consider about Wilson is that he also plays pro baseball and he might decide on a baseball career instead.

 

[pantherclub]

I also hope you get him. Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

what?

Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

I'll play.How is the league better when Miami is relevant?

 

[garosenb]

I think many of you are overlooking Russell Wilson. Extremely accurate and mobile, runs a pro-style offense and seems to have a great head on his shoulders (read how the Wisconsin locker room took to him when he arrived this summer). Having watched Luck, Jones, Griffin and Barkley, I can say that he definitely is strongly in that second tier of QBs. Personally, I think he looks better than Barkley and Griffin.

He's only 5'11.

I didn't think he was old enough to come out?

I know he was a transfer from NC State so I'm pretty sure he's at least a junior. One other thing to consider about Wilson is that he also plays pro baseball and he might decide on a baseball career instead.

He is a Senior and has dropped baseball. He says that he wants to play in the NFL.

 

[Instinctive]

I think many of you are overlooking Russell Wilson. Extremely accurate and mobile, runs a pro-style offense and seems to have a great head on his shoulders (read how the Wisconsin locker room took to him when he arrived this summer). Having watched Luck, Jones, Griffin and Barkley, I can say that he definitely is strongly in that second tier of QBs. Personally, I think he looks better than Barkley and Griffin.

He's only 5'11.

I didn't think he was old enough to come out?

I know he was a transfer from NC State so I'm pretty sure he's at least a junior. One other thing to consider about Wilson is that he also plays pro baseball and he might decide on a baseball career instead.

Cool - I just assumed he was young. Learn something new all the time!A surprising number of these QBs seem to be pro baseball guys...or maybe I just never noticed it before? Wilson, Wheeden, the OSU guy...

 

[The Rook]

It's gonna be tough for Miami to get him. IND and STL have an easier schedule so MIA is gonna have to finish with a worse record than those teams to get #1 overall.And yeah - the drop off is huge. If the Phins were smart (which they're clearly not), they would shut down some of the starters (IR Jake Long, trade away Marshall, etc.) to ensure that they suck ENOUGH for Luck.I haven't seen a real consensus on the rankings of Landry Jones, Barkley or RGIII.

The comment about IND and STL having easier schedule? Is that tiebreaker for first pick if teams have same record? Is that based on opponents record at end of season?

 

[Phlash]

Jones and Barkley are both probably more highly touted then Newton and Gabbert. Those consolation prizes are like getting first overall picks most other years, so great value there. Clearly luck is in a league of his own but who knows what will happen in the nfl. Number 1 picks are never a lock.In the last 13 years #1 overall QB's:Tim CouchMike VickDavid CarrCarson PalmerEli ManningAlex SmithJamarcus Russell Matt StaffordSam BradfordCam NewtonOnly three have ever made a probowl (obviously more to come from the bottom three)Throw in the 2nd and 3rd rounders since then, (Ryan Leaf, Donovan Mcnabb, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith) and we've got quite a few top 3 busts! Not much to tell from the stats but its strange to see how many aren't even playing football anymore. That aside, I'd say Luck probably had more talent then any of those 13 guys coming out.

The Alex Smith story is also far from over. That guy is having a Pro Bowl season right now.

 

[Deamon]

Jones and Barkley are both probably more highly touted then Newton and Gabbert. Those consolation prizes are like getting first overall picks most other years, so great value there. Clearly luck is in a league of his own but who knows what will happen in the nfl. Number 1 picks are never a lock.In the last 13 years #1 overall QB's:Tim CouchMike VickDavid CarrCarson PalmerEli ManningAlex SmithJamarcus Russell Matt StaffordSam BradfordCam NewtonOnly three have ever made a probowl (obviously more to come from the bottom three)Throw in the 2nd and 3rd rounders since then, (Ryan Leaf, Donovan Mcnabb, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith) and we've got quite a few top 3 busts! Not much to tell from the stats but its strange to see how many aren't even playing football anymore. That aside, I'd say Luck probably had more talent then any of those 13 guys coming out.

The Alex Smith story is also far from over. That guy is having a Pro Bowl season right now.

PRO BOWL SEASON? 26th in the NFL in passing yards, 14th in TD's thrown. Which 3 of Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Manning, Newton do you think he beats out?

 

[jasvic]

Jones and Barkley are both probably more highly touted then Newton and Gabbert. Those consolation prizes are like getting first overall picks most other years, so great value there. Clearly luck is in a league of his own but who knows what will happen in the nfl. Number 1 picks are never a lock.In the last 13 years #1 overall QB's:Tim CouchMike VickDavid CarrCarson PalmerEli ManningAlex SmithJamarcus Russell Matt StaffordSam BradfordCam NewtonOnly three have ever made a probowl (obviously more to come from the bottom three)Throw in the 2nd and 3rd rounders since then, (Ryan Leaf, Donovan Mcnabb, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith) and we've got quite a few top 3 busts! Not much to tell from the stats but its strange to see how many aren't even playing football anymore. That aside, I'd say Luck probably had more talent then any of those 13 guys coming out.

Curious why you chose your cut-off the year after Peyton Manning was drafted #1 overall? Seems like the best comparison here.

 

[ChrisCooleyFan]

The kid from SDSU

 

[jurb26]

Jones and Barkley are both probably more highly touted then Newton and Gabbert. Those consolation prizes are like getting first overall picks most other years, so great value there. Clearly luck is in a league of his own but who knows what will happen in the nfl. Number 1 picks are never a lock.In the last 13 years #1 overall QB's:Tim CouchMike VickDavid CarrCarson PalmerEli ManningAlex SmithJamarcus Russell Matt StaffordSam BradfordCam NewtonOnly three have ever made a probowl (obviously more to come from the bottom three)Throw in the 2nd and 3rd rounders since then, (Ryan Leaf, Donovan Mcnabb, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith) and we've got quite a few top 3 busts! Not much to tell from the stats but its strange to see how many aren't even playing football anymore. That aside, I'd say Luck probably had more talent then any of those 13 guys coming out.

The Alex Smith story is also far from over. That guy is having a Pro Bowl season right now.

PRO BOWL SEASON? 26th in the NFL in passing yards, 14th in TD's thrown. Which 3 of Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Manning, Newton do you think he beats out?

Smith is having a great season. Not Pro Bowl, mainly because of the strength at QB in the NFC right now but still a great season. It looks as though Stafford and Newton are sure to be Pro Bowlers. That would make it 5 of 13. Bradford has a chance as well. I'm not sure 6 of 13 would be that bad a ratio. Close to 50%. I think the larger problem is that it seems there is very little middle ground. These guys either turn into Pro Bowl type players or fail miserably. A. Smith seems to be the only guy who, although may never make a Pro Bowl, could still serve as an adequate starter for a while. Even that is still open for debate. The other guys flat sucked.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

I also hope you get him. Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

If NFL can survive for over a decade without a team in Los Angeles, NFL can careless about Miami being the new Detroit Lions.

 

[shnikies]

I also hope you get him. Luck in Miami would be the best for the NFL as a whole. It's a better league when the Dolphins are relevant.

If NFL can survive for over a decade without a team in Los Angeles, NFL can careless about Miami being the new Detroit Lions.

All I'm saying is that out of the teams who struggle to sellout games, the Dolphins have the strongest history. Luck would help bring back enthusiasm to the city. I'm sorry I didn't say "in my opinion", I'll be sure to do that the next time.

 

[meanjoegreen]

I think many of you are overlooking Russell Wilson. Extremely accurate and mobile, runs a pro-style offense and seems to have a great head on his shoulders (read how the Wisconsin locker room took to him when he arrived this summer). Having watched Luck, Jones, Griffin and Barkley, I can say that he definitely is strongly in that second tier of QBs. Personally, I think he looks better than Barkley and Griffin.

He's only 5'11.

I didn't think he was old enough to come out?

I know he was a transfer from NC State so I'm pretty sure he's at least a junior. One other thing to consider about Wilson is that he also plays pro baseball and he might decide on a baseball career instead.

Wilson was in college at NCSU for 4 years and graduated. He redshirted his first year at NCSU, and played QB for three years after. He graduated last year, but was eligible to play another year at State, but was undecided whether he was going to come back and play, or stick with baseball. He eventually decided to come back, but the starting job was promised to someone else since Wilson wouldn't commit earlier. He then transferred to Wisconsin. He is plenty old enough to enter the NFL.