Groupthink can be fantasy poison (1 Viewer)

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Every year, I am amazed by the extent to which I succumb to groupthink in the FBG fantasy circles. By definition, many of us are guilty of it. Whether through faulty assessment of David Wilson's prospects in the preseason or an objective understanding of Hillman's role as the Broncos RB, we rarely see a solid red-team analysis that provides an "other side of the coin" point-of-view from somebodies who really understand football. And particularly, from those who understand the player being evaluated.

And when we do see an alternative POV, we can be dismissive because we think we've scored a gem, the next WW wonder like Chad Johnson and Larry Johnson many years ago, Victor Cruz last year.

The fantasy value of a rookie RB who cannot pass protect is pretty low, yet we jumped at opportunities to grab Hillman in hopes of striking gold, while the real opportunity was the "veteran" Moreno.

Anyway, nothing earth-shattering here. I just need to take a moment sometimes and rethink my approach to the WW.

 

[Sea Duck]

Groupthink affected Alfred Morris' status as well. So many people were scared of Mike Shanahan that they convinced others to stay away from Washington's starting RB.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Groupthink affected Alfred Morris' status as well. So many people were scared of Mike Shanahan that they convinced others to stay away from Washington's starting RB.

Sometimes the odds don't pay off but that was a wise move no matter what Morris' numbers end up being.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

 

[bonesman]

Groupthink affected Alfred Morris' status as well. So many people were scared of Mike Shanahan that they convinced others to stay away from Washington's starting RB.

Same with Ridley and Bellicheck. As for Hillman. He is a rookie and John Fox is his coach. Pretty huge red flag there warning people to stay away.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Groupthink affected Alfred Morris' status as well. So many people were scared of Mike Shanahan that they convinced others to stay away from Washington's starting RB.

Same with Ridley and Bellicheck. As for Hillman. He is a rookie and John Fox is his coach. Pretty huge red flag there warning people to stay away.

I brought this point up in another thread last week and was quickly shot down.

 

[Sea Duck]

Groupthink affected Alfred Morris' status as well. So many people were scared of Mike Shanahan that they convinced others to stay away from Washington's starting RB.

Sometimes the odds don't pay off but that was a wise move no matter what Morris' numbers end up being.

I completely disagree. Shanahan's RBBC history had been exaggerated for years, but anytime someone tried to point that out, they were shouted down by the masses. As a result, Morris' ADP was RB46 -- well behind most of the other starting RBs in the league (and even behind some 3rd stringers).What makes it even worse is that Morris' artificially-low ADP should have been taken as a sign of value for late round steals, but once again the groupthink mentality got in the way.It may have been a wise move to avoid Morris in the first 5 rounds, but it certainly was NOT a wise move to avoid him altogether.

 

[LittlePhatty]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

 

[BallparkFrank]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

I think TK's response was quite reasonable. It's ridiculous how many fantasy owners are completely unable to think for themselves and then blame the "gurus" when they are misguided. Look no further than Twitter on a Sunday morning when searching for a player and there are 9 million WDIS tweets. So, I think a "valid subject" is why so many owners have a complete inability to think for themselves. I'm guessing an alternative title to this thread was "I lost because of Hillman and Lammey"!

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

How about I put in a huge bid for Hillman and was still outbid and jumped on Moreno this morning when I heard he would start?I think this situation broke my way but they don't always do, of course.And besides, I am an analyst by profession. There is no such thing as "think for yourself" as a part of good analytic tradecraft. Just the opposite, in fact. Groupthink is a hazard that should be on our radar at all times.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

This isn't a valid subject though, it's an irrelevant subject. If OP has a problem with how David Wilson and Ronnie Hillman were talked up in here, then he should have been making intelligent posts about why they are being overrated back then; not blaming others for mis-prognosticating after having the benefit of hindsight.

 

[EBF]

Irony of it all is that Moreno has a career 4.1 YPC average and was a much more highly regarded prospect than Hillman, yet Hillman was assumed to be a lot more talented just because he's the shiny new toy. Not to say that Hillman won't eventually end up being better, but he has sure been overhyped.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

I think TK's response was quite reasonable. It's ridiculous how many fantasy owners are completely unable to think for themselves and then blame the "gurus" when they are misguided. Look no further than Twitter on a Sunday morning when searching for a player and there are 9 million WDIS tweets. So, I think a "valid subject" is why so many owners have a complete inability to think for themselves. I'm guessing an alternative title to this thread was "I lost because of Hillman and Lammey"!

Again, the "think for yourself" approach is a terribly flawed way to go about fantasy. I firmly believe that the key to success is information and there's no better place for information than FBG. The signal-to-noise ratio, however, is pretty high. Got to filter through a lot of crap to get the good stuff. I'm a Packer fan so I'll trust my judgement there much, but not all, of the time. But I don't know much about the Patriots, for example. So I value guys like Yudkin to tell me what's up in NE. I'll defer to him, just as I'll defer to others who know the nuances of their teams better than I do.

 

[BallparkFrank]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

I think TK's response was quite reasonable. It's ridiculous how many fantasy owners are completely unable to think for themselves and then blame the "gurus" when they are misguided. Look no further than Twitter on a Sunday morning when searching for a player and there are 9 million WDIS tweets. So, I think a "valid subject" is why so many owners have a complete inability to think for themselves. I'm guessing an alternative title to this thread was "I lost because of Hillman and Lammey"!

Again, the "think for yourself" approach is a terribly flawed way to go about fantasy. I firmly believe that the key to success is information and there's no better place for information than FBG. The signal-to-noise ratio, however, is pretty high. Got to filter through a lot of crap to get the good stuff. I'm a Packer fan so I'll trust my judgement there much, but not all, of the time. But I don't know much about the Patriots, for example. So I value guys like Yudkin to tell me what's up in NE. I'll defer to him, just as I'll defer to others who know the nuances of their teams better than I do.

So, you're basically saying groupthink can be a good thing or it can be fantasy poison? That seems fairly open-ended. Take all the info in, sort it out, make your own decisions and take the glory and blame for yourself. To see people go on and on about Lammey being President of the Ronnie Hillman Fan Club and blame him for their fantasy shortcomings (amongst other examples) is crazy. Kudos to Lammey for making a strong take, I hope he continues to do so even though he whiffed on this one.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).

But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

I think TK's response was quite reasonable. It's ridiculous how many fantasy owners are completely unable to think for themselves and then blame the "gurus" when they are misguided. Look no further than Twitter on a Sunday morning when searching for a player and there are 9 million WDIS tweets. So, I think a "valid subject" is why so many owners have a complete inability to think for themselves. I'm guessing an alternative title to this thread was "I lost because of Hillman and Lammey"!

Again, the "think for yourself" approach is a terribly flawed way to go about fantasy. I firmly believe that the key to success is information and there's no better place for information than FBG. The signal-to-noise ratio, however, is pretty high. Got to filter through a lot of crap to get the good stuff. I'm a Packer fan so I'll trust my judgement there much, but not all, of the time. But I don't know much about the Patriots, for example. So I value guys like Yudkin to tell me what's up in NE. I'll defer to him, just as I'll defer to others who know the nuances of their teams better than I do.

So, you're basically saying groupthink can be a good thing or it can be fantasy poison? That seems fairly open-ended. Take all the info in, sort it out, make your own decisions and take the glory and blame for yourself. To see people go on and on about Lammey being President of the Ronnie Hillman Fan Club and blame him for their fantasy shortcomings (amongst other examples) is crazy. Kudos to Lammey for making a strong take, I hope he continues to do so even though he whiffed on this one.

Groupthink is an actual term with negative connotations, not just a generic description of multiple opinions. It's an analytic hazard. More.

 

[donkshow]

The best way to make your fantasy decision is watch tape and do loads of research. Nobody will be perfect in their predictions and/or picks. The goal is to make the least mistakes especially at the beginning of your draft.

 

[chickensoup]

The Denver situation was one that people should have stayed away from anyways as noone knew the splits going into the game and how they would shake out. The fact that Hillman has a huge fan saying to pick him up at all costs was a red flag to me. I hyped him all week and got someone desperate for a RB to pay $66 for him though, so I was happy.

It will be interesting to hear what the FBG reaction will be though. He HAS been pimped pretty hard since about June.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Ronnie Hillman was a inside job... John Fox = legit reptilian... wake up sheeple...

 

[Time Kibitzer]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).

But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

I think TK's response was quite reasonable. It's ridiculous how many fantasy owners are completely unable to think for themselves and then blame the "gurus" when they are misguided. Look no further than Twitter on a Sunday morning when searching for a player and there are 9 million WDIS tweets. So, I think a "valid subject" is why so many owners have a complete inability to think for themselves. I'm guessing an alternative title to this thread was "I lost because of Hillman and Lammey"!

Again, the "think for yourself" approach is a terribly flawed way to go about fantasy. I firmly believe that the key to success is information and there's no better place for information than FBG. The signal-to-noise ratio, however, is pretty high. Got to filter through a lot of crap to get the good stuff. I'm a Packer fan so I'll trust my judgement there much, but not all, of the time. But I don't know much about the Patriots, for example. So I value guys like Yudkin to tell me what's up in NE. I'll defer to him, just as I'll defer to others who know the nuances of their teams better than I do.

So, you're basically saying groupthink can be a good thing or it can be fantasy poison? That seems fairly open-ended. Take all the info in, sort it out, make your own decisions and take the glory and blame for yourself. To see people go on and on about Lammey being President of the Ronnie Hillman Fan Club and blame him for their fantasy shortcomings (amongst other examples) is crazy. Kudos to Lammey for making a strong take, I hope he continues to do so even though he whiffed on this one.

Groupthink is an actual term with negative connotations, not just a generic description of multiple opinions. It's an analytic hazard.

More.

Here's another analytic hazard that you seem to be ignoring: Hindsight bias.Picking up Hillman instead of Moreno looks like an obviously faulty decision now, but it wasn't an obviously faulty decision earlier in the week when people didn't know Moreno was going to be starting.

 

[elbowrm]

Sandeman you seem to be contracdicting yourself by saying that groupthink is bad, but so is thinking for oneself - makes it kind of difficult to follow your logic.

 

[Sabertooth]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

How about we all travel to all the games so we can watch in person and interview the coaches.

 

[Judge Smails]

ridiculous post. Groupthink is the reason we even come to these boards.

 

[renesauz]

Groupthink affected Alfred Morris' status as well. So many people were scared of Mike Shanahan that they convinced others to stay away from Washington's starting RB.

Sometimes the odds don't pay off but that was a wise move no matter what Morris' numbers end up being.

I completely disagree. Shanahan's RBBC history had been exaggerated for years, but anytime someone tried to point that out, they were shouted down by the masses. As a result, Morris' ADP was RB46 -- well behind most of the other starting RBs in the league (and even behind some 3rd stringers).What makes it even worse is that Morris' artificially-low ADP should have been taken as a sign of value for late round steals, but once again the groupthink mentality got in the way.It may have been a wise move to avoid Morris in the first 5 rounds, but it certainly was NOT a wise move to avoid him altogether.

What kind of revisionist thinking is this?Nobody had a clue who would start for Washington back in July. Argue about mid September forward if you want, but it was far from clear when most drafts were taking place.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).

But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

I think TK's response was quite reasonable. It's ridiculous how many fantasy owners are completely unable to think for themselves and then blame the "gurus" when they are misguided. Look no further than Twitter on a Sunday morning when searching for a player and there are 9 million WDIS tweets. So, I think a "valid subject" is why so many owners have a complete inability to think for themselves. I'm guessing an alternative title to this thread was "I lost because of Hillman and Lammey"!

Again, the "think for yourself" approach is a terribly flawed way to go about fantasy. I firmly believe that the key to success is information and there's no better place for information than FBG. The signal-to-noise ratio, however, is pretty high. Got to filter through a lot of crap to get the good stuff. I'm a Packer fan so I'll trust my judgement there much, but not all, of the time. But I don't know much about the Patriots, for example. So I value guys like Yudkin to tell me what's up in NE. I'll defer to him, just as I'll defer to others who know the nuances of their teams better than I do.

So, you're basically saying groupthink can be a good thing or it can be fantasy poison? That seems fairly open-ended. Take all the info in, sort it out, make your own decisions and take the glory and blame for yourself. To see people go on and on about Lammey being President of the Ronnie Hillman Fan Club and blame him for their fantasy shortcomings (amongst other examples) is crazy. Kudos to Lammey for making a strong take, I hope he continues to do so even though he whiffed on this one.

Groupthink is an actual term with negative connotations, not just a generic description of multiple opinions. It's an analytic hazard.

More.

Here's another analytic hazard that you seem to be ignoring: Hindsight bias.Picking up Hillman instead of Moreno looks like an obviously faulty decision now, but it wasn't an obviously faulty decision earlier in the week when people didn't know Moreno was going to be starting.

I think you need to reread my posts. We're talking about different things. I am criticizing process, you're focused on Hillman whereasI am not bent on the Hillman/Moreno issue. I only noted it to highlight fault in how some of us process information. Threads on pickups like Hillman wind up being circle jerks and, in the end, not very valuable. Regarding the bolded, this is exactly what I am trying to avoid. You say it wasn't a faulty decision earlier in the week. Actually, it was. Very little changed in the situation over the week (could argue that Moreno having a good week of practice was an indicator). But we didn't see it because we were caught up high-fiving ourselves, or at least those of us who got him off the waiver wire. There were FBGers saying beware. Could we have figured out that Moreno was the call after all? Could we have at least determined that Hillman may not be the answer and anybody going after him needs to find a way to get Moreno too? I don't know. Maybe.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Whether through faulty assessment of David Wilson's prospects in the preseason

XDavid Wilson was in on over 40% of the Giants offensive plays in the season opener when he... FUMBLED.

Unfortunately it was with coach Coughlin.

That's still his only fumble of the season, and he has 56 all purpose touches.

 

[packseasontix]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

I think TK's response was quite reasonable. It's ridiculous how many fantasy owners are completely unable to think for themselves and then blame the "gurus" when they are misguided. Look no further than Twitter on a Sunday morning when searching for a player and there are 9 million WDIS tweets. So, I think a "valid subject" is why so many owners have a complete inability to think for themselves. I'm guessing an alternative title to this thread was "I lost because of Hillman and Lammey"!

I check in and ask about WDIS maybe not tweeting though... Doesn't mean I don't think for myself, its good to get reassurance from others that think you should start player A over B. I for one do not watch football 24x7 365 so you have to rely on some of the "gurus" at the same time I don't buy too much into them if I feel they mis-evaluate someone.One place that I think Football Guys and other sources is great for though is those late round picks. Reading to why people are excited about a certain player help me get a better view of where they could possibly be for ADP/auction$ and if it fits with my plan for my team.

 

[General Tso]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

How about, "if you don't have anything good to say don't say anything at all"? The OP wasn't blaming anyone.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Whether through faulty assessment of David Wilson's prospects in the preseason

XDavid Wilson was in on over 40% of the Giants offensive plays in the season opener when he... FUMBLED.

Unfortunately it was with coach Coughlin.

That's still his only fumble of the season, and he has 56 all purpose touches.

Slightly misleading. The Giants ran barely a dozen plays when he fumbled in mid-way in the first quarter and he wasn't seen after that. 40% means little on such a small sample size.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

How about, "if you don't have anything good to say don't say anything at all"? The OP wasn't blaming anyone.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).

But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

I think TK's response was quite reasonable. It's ridiculous how many fantasy owners are completely unable to think for themselves and then blame the "gurus" when they are misguided. Look no further than Twitter on a Sunday morning when searching for a player and there are 9 million WDIS tweets. So, I think a "valid subject" is why so many owners have a complete inability to think for themselves. I'm guessing an alternative title to this thread was "I lost because of Hillman and Lammey"!

Again, the "think for yourself" approach is a terribly flawed way to go about fantasy. I firmly believe that the key to success is information and there's no better place for information than FBG. The signal-to-noise ratio, however, is pretty high. Got to filter through a lot of crap to get the good stuff. I'm a Packer fan so I'll trust my judgement there much, but not all, of the time. But I don't know much about the Patriots, for example. So I value guys like Yudkin to tell me what's up in NE. I'll defer to him, just as I'll defer to others who know the nuances of their teams better than I do.

So, you're basically saying groupthink can be a good thing or it can be fantasy poison? That seems fairly open-ended. Take all the info in, sort it out, make your own decisions and take the glory and blame for yourself. To see people go on and on about Lammey being President of the Ronnie Hillman Fan Club and blame him for their fantasy shortcomings (amongst other examples) is crazy. Kudos to Lammey for making a strong take, I hope he continues to do so even though he whiffed on this one.

Groupthink is an actual term with negative connotations, not just a generic description of multiple opinions. It's an analytic hazard.

More.

Here's another analytic hazard that you seem to be ignoring: Hindsight bias.Picking up Hillman instead of Moreno looks like an obviously faulty decision now, but it wasn't an obviously faulty decision earlier in the week when people didn't know Moreno was going to be starting.

I think you need to reread my posts. We're talking about different things. I am criticizing process, you're focused on Hillman whereasI am not bent on the Hillman/Moreno issue. I only noted it to highlight fault in how some of us process information. Threads on pickups like Hillman wind up being circle jerks and, in the end, not very valuable. Regarding the bolded, this is exactly what I am trying to avoid. You say it wasn't a faulty decision earlier in the week. Actually, it was. Very little changed in the situation over the week (could argue that Moreno having a good week of practice was an indicator). But we didn't see it because we were caught up high-fiving ourselves, or at least those of us who got him off the waiver wire. There were FBGers saying beware. Could we have figured out that Moreno was the call after all? Could we have at least determined that Hillman may not be the answer and anybody going after him needs to find a way to get Moreno too? I don't know. Maybe.

It seems to only be a process problem when there's an unfortunate result though; how come you don't mention the Randall Cobb and Danario Alexander threads in regard to process problems? If picking up Hillman was an obviously faulty decision earlier in the week, then why was this thread not made earlier in the week instead of after the Denver game?

 

[Nugget]

Based on the info you had before today, what would you have done different?

 

[hamsterdam]

There's all sorts of good info on these forums but first and foremost you gotta make the decision yourself. Go with what you think will be the right decision. Cause at the end of the day, it's much easier to live with your own decision going wrong, than one based solely off of someone else's opinion (assumption/speculation in this case).

99% of posts on FF forums are bias owners rooting for their player.

You just gotta filter through loads of bad logic.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

The OP is intelligently talking about a valid subject worthy of some thought (which is kind of rare around here).

But you just want to take a dump in every corner, don't you?

I think TK's response was quite reasonable. It's ridiculous how many fantasy owners are completely unable to think for themselves and then blame the "gurus" when they are misguided. Look no further than Twitter on a Sunday morning when searching for a player and there are 9 million WDIS tweets. So, I think a "valid subject" is why so many owners have a complete inability to think for themselves. I'm guessing an alternative title to this thread was "I lost because of Hillman and Lammey"!

Again, the "think for yourself" approach is a terribly flawed way to go about fantasy. I firmly believe that the key to success is information and there's no better place for information than FBG. The signal-to-noise ratio, however, is pretty high. Got to filter through a lot of crap to get the good stuff. I'm a Packer fan so I'll trust my judgement there much, but not all, of the time. But I don't know much about the Patriots, for example. So I value guys like Yudkin to tell me what's up in NE. I'll defer to him, just as I'll defer to others who know the nuances of their teams better than I do.

So, you're basically saying groupthink can be a good thing or it can be fantasy poison? That seems fairly open-ended. Take all the info in, sort it out, make your own decisions and take the glory and blame for yourself. To see people go on and on about Lammey being President of the Ronnie Hillman Fan Club and blame him for their fantasy shortcomings (amongst other examples) is crazy. Kudos to Lammey for making a strong take, I hope he continues to do so even though he whiffed on this one.

Groupthink is an actual term with negative connotations, not just a generic description of multiple opinions. It's an analytic hazard.

More.

Here's another analytic hazard that you seem to be ignoring: Hindsight bias.Picking up Hillman instead of Moreno looks like an obviously faulty decision now, but it wasn't an obviously faulty decision earlier in the week when people didn't know Moreno was going to be starting.

I think you need to reread my posts. We're talking about different things. I am criticizing process, you're focused on Hillman whereasI am not bent on the Hillman/Moreno issue. I only noted it to highlight fault in how some of us process information. Threads on pickups like Hillman wind up being circle jerks and, in the end, not very valuable. Regarding the bolded, this is exactly what I am trying to avoid. You say it wasn't a faulty decision earlier in the week. Actually, it was. Very little changed in the situation over the week (could argue that Moreno having a good week of practice was an indicator). But we didn't see it because we were caught up high-fiving ourselves, or at least those of us who got him off the waiver wire. There were FBGers saying beware. Could we have figured out that Moreno was the call after all? Could we have at least determined that Hillman may not be the answer and anybody going after him needs to find a way to get Moreno too? I don't know. Maybe.

It seems to only be a process problem when there's an unfortunate result though; how come you don't mention the Randall Cobb and Danario Alexander threads in regard to process problems? If picking up Hillman was an obviously faulty decision earlier in the week, then why was this thread not made earlier in the week instead of after the Denver game?

Can't say I've followed the DA situation so I know nothing about that. But I have followed Cobb and that is a good example of solid analysis in the SP. But I think it was a pretty easy assessment to make. There were many things going Cobb's way as he entered his rookie season. MVP QB, passing-focused team, impending retirement of starting WR. And then he returned a kick for a TD and caught a TD in his first game on national television. Dynasty/Keeper people picked him up knowing he'd be quality but that it would take time.I didn't consider the pitfalls on Hillman. That's why I posted this thread. I caught Hillman fever. After all, the prospect of grabbing a starting RB off the WW to save your season is pretty intoxicating. And then we all drink each other's koolaid. That's where the problem is.

And I do think assessing the RB is harder than the WR. Need to think about it more but that's my hunch anyway.

 

[EBF]

Would Cobb be doing anything this year if Jennings and (temporarily) Nelson hadn't been hurt?

I'd call that luck as much as sound analysis. Of course from a dynasty standpoint there was always reason to like his talent, but his immediate success has primarily been due to injuries. And also due to Finley being complete poo.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Whether through faulty assessment of David Wilson's prospects in the preseason

XDavid Wilson was in on over 40% of the Giants offensive plays in the season opener when he... FUMBLED.

Unfortunately it was with coach Coughlin.

That's still his only fumble of the season, and he has 56 all purpose touches.

Slightly misleading. The Giants ran barely a dozen plays when he fumbled in mid-way in the first quarter and he wasn't seen after that. 40% means little on such a small sample size.

They started their season with the rookie out there just as much as Bradshaw.All that Andre Brown work was poised to be Wilsons, at a minimum... sans the Fumble/Coughlin.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Can't say I've followed the DA situation so I know nothing about that. But I have followed Cobb and that is a good example of solid analysis in the SP. But I think it was a pretty easy assessment to make. There were many things going Cobb's way as he entered his rookie season. MVP QB, passing-focused team, impending retirement of starting WR. And then he returned a kick for a TD and caught a TD in his first game on national television. Dynasty/Keeper people picked him up knowing he'd be quality but that it would take time.I didn't consider the pitfalls on Hillman. That's why I posted this thread. I caught Hillman fever. After all, the prospect of grabbing a starting RB off the WW to save your season is pretty intoxicating. And then we all drink each other's koolaid. That's where the problem is.And I do think assessing the RB is harder than the WR. Need to think about it more but that's my hunch anyway.

this keeps coming off as hindsight bias; you're talking about the past as if what was going to happen in the future was obvious, when in reality I can't imagine you making such strong claims about Cobb, Hillman, and Wilson at the time their hype threads started. The fact is, the Shark Pool hypes up lots of players; what you're responsible for is deciphering what posts contain relevant information and what posts contain irrelevant circle jerking. Blaming the existence of hype threads for your poor WW management is simply self-serving bias.

 

[Synthesizer]

Here's another analytic hazard that you seem to be ignoring: Hindsight bias.

Exactly what's going on here.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Can't say I've followed the DA situation so I know nothing about that. But I have followed Cobb and that is a good example of solid analysis in the SP. But I think it was a pretty easy assessment to make. There were many things going Cobb's way as he entered his rookie season. MVP QB, passing-focused team, impending retirement of starting WR. And then he returned a kick for a TD and caught a TD in his first game on national television. Dynasty/Keeper people picked him up knowing he'd be quality but that it would take time.

I didn't consider the pitfalls on Hillman. That's why I posted this thread. I caught Hillman fever. After all, the prospect of grabbing a starting RB off the WW to save your season is pretty intoxicating. And then we all drink each other's koolaid. That's where the problem is.

And I do think assessing the RB is harder than the WR. Need to think about it more but that's my hunch anyway.

this keeps coming off as hindsight bias; you're talking about the past as if what was going to happen in the future was obvious, when in reality I can't imagine you making such strong claims about Cobb, Hillman, and Wilson at the time their hype threads started. The fact is, the Shark Pool hypes up lots of players; what you're responsible for is deciphering what posts contain relevant information and what posts contain irrelevant circle jerking. Blaming the existence of hype threads for your poor WW management is simply self-serving bias.

So you ask me about a couple guys and I tell you I don't know much about one and that I thought the prospects for the other were very good (after mentioning earlier that I follow the Pack closely). Then you accuse me of hindsight bias. Strange.You're right. I did not make such strong claims about those guys - Hillman and Wilson anyway. That's exactly my point. I want more, better information than what I often have to wade through. I want a David Yudkin for every team.

And I didn't ever blame the existence of hype threads for poor WW management. Nor have I said that I've poorly managed the WW. I'm just looking for something better without being sure what better is.

Again, you're misunderstanding my approach. I'm not complaining about my teams, my moves, etc. I'm trying to figure out how to get better information to make better decisions. Seems lost on you but I'm beginning to think that's par for the course.

 

[moleculo]

guys, I feel partly to blame here, and I apologize. I knew it would be Moreno, and didn't speak up loudly enough about it. It's hard though, because I didn't have any solid evidence beyond Foxes historical usage patterns, what I saw in pre-season, the relative size of Hillman/Moreno, these guys' roles so far in 2012, etc... it's all purely from watching from a thousand miles away though, and that's pretty flimsy "evidence", as compared to Cecil's first-hand observations and the Denver Post reporting that Hillman would be the guy to have. I had a couple posts on the subject, but didn't say enough about it, even though I watched it all happen very closely.

Here's another thing I noticed and failed to call out - most of the guys I recognize as Bronco homers were only cautiously pro-Hillman or even pro-Moreno to replace McGahee. The Hillman fans were not Bronco homers; they were guys who drafted him. IMO this is a case where the old "follows closely" badge might have helped - maybe my opinion that Hillman wasn't yet the guy might have carried a little more weight, I dunno. Regardless, if you were to peruse the Orange Mane last week, it was far from set in stone who the guy would be - read this thread, and look at who is discussed as the replacement. A quick word count in thread, Hillman is mentioned 21 times, Moreno (or Morano) is mentioned 43 times. All I'm trying to show here is that amongst hard-core Bronco homers, Hillmans role as the bellcow was far from a fore-gone conclusion, at least to the degree it was here @ FBG.

 

[moleculo]

Can't say I've followed the DA situation so I know nothing about that. But I have followed Cobb and that is a good example of solid analysis in the SP. But I think it was a pretty easy assessment to make. There were many things going Cobb's way as he entered his rookie season. MVP QB, passing-focused team, impending retirement of starting WR. And then he returned a kick for a TD and caught a TD in his first game on national television. Dynasty/Keeper people picked him up knowing he'd be quality but that it would take time.

I didn't consider the pitfalls on Hillman. That's why I posted this thread. I caught Hillman fever. After all, the prospect of grabbing a starting RB off the WW to save your season is pretty intoxicating. And then we all drink each other's koolaid. That's where the problem is.

And I do think assessing the RB is harder than the WR. Need to think about it more but that's my hunch anyway.

this keeps coming off as hindsight bias; you're talking about the past as if what was going to happen in the future was obvious, when in reality I can't imagine you making such strong claims about Cobb, Hillman, and Wilson at the time their hype threads started. The fact is, the Shark Pool hypes up lots of players; what you're responsible for is deciphering what posts contain relevant information and what posts contain irrelevant circle jerking. Blaming the existence of hype threads for your poor WW management is simply self-serving bias.

So you ask me about a couple guys and I tell you I don't know much about one and that I thought the prospects for the other were very good (after mentioning earlier that I follow the Pack closely). Then you accuse me of hindsight bias. Strange.You're right. I did not make such strong claims about those guys - Hillman and Wilson anyway. That's exactly my point. I want more, better information than what I often have to wade through. I want a David Yudkin for every team.

And I didn't ever blame the existence of hype threads for poor WW management. Nor have I said that I've poorly managed the WW. I'm just looking for something better without being sure what better is.

Again, you're misunderstanding my approach. I'm not complaining about my teams, my moves, etc. I'm trying to figure out how to get better information to make better decisions. Seems lost on you but I'm beginning to think that's par for the course.

I agree with you - that's why I like coming to the shark pool to start with. One thing you have to realize is that hype-trains are simply that - they are not a good place for insider opinions. When I want to know what the scoop is, I will listen to the homers more than anyone else, and to me, the best place for that is in the ***official*** team threads. The only people who post in there (for the most part) are fans of the team, not fans of the player. When I wanted to know about Kerley, I went to a jets thread - or saw a thread by a jets homer, for example.Cecil is a great source, but you have to remember - he looks at the talent moreso than the situation. Cecil has a history of falling in love with some players, and sometimes it takes a year or two for their talent to emerge. Anyone remember who EEEEEEEEEEEEE refers to?

 

[money.never.sleeps]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

Thread.

Thanks for sparing me all the other BS responses.

*** News Flash ***

"FBG Staff" watch the same games you do and have the same experience in the NFL as "you".. See the same stats as "you".. Its not rocket science.

 

[Synthesizer]

I want more, better information than what I often have to wade through. I want a David Yudkin for every team.

When you've got a direct quote from Peyton Manning, you're probably not going to find better info than that: "It's going to be a three-man committee". Heck, I would bet the coaching staff started the game with a committee gameplan. But once Moreno was effective, the gameplan changed. That's the way the NFL works sometimes, so good luck in finding a team expert that can predict it with 100% accuracy.

 

[blake]

How bout you think for yourself instead of blaming others for your misfortunes.

How about, "if you don't have anything good to say don't say anything at all"? The OP wasn't blaming anyone.

Agreed. Extremely good posting by General Tso.

 

[mbuehner]

You have to look at the flipside too. For everyone that bucks the consensus and succeeds, there are at least as many that fail. Everbody looks like a genius and crows about it when they win, but you usually never hear a peep when they lose. By all means, trust your own judgement first and foremost, but there is a special kind of idiocy that insists on doing the opposite of what they are told just to say i told you so. Thats at least as self destructive as following blindly. With ouselves we dwell on the hits and forget the misses, when judging others, the reverse.

 

[Synthesizer]

Regardless, if you were to peruse the Orange Mane last week, it was far from set in stone who the guy would be - read this thread, and look at who is discussed as the replacement. A quick word count in thread, Hillman is mentioned 21 times, Moreno (or Morano) is mentioned 43 times. All I'm trying to show here is that amongst hard-core Bronco homers, Hillmans role as the bellcow was far from a fore-gone conclusion, at least to the degree it was here @ FBG.

Serious question... how much credibility do you give a homer if they don't even know his name is Moreno?

 

[money.never.sleeps]

By all means, trust your own judgement first and foremost

This only works if you're actually researching. If not then you cant complain.by the way.. this whole site is built off fantasy football so someone must care about "your" fantasy team

 

[mbuehner]

Lol, no ones ever hit on that before. Spose it should be 'no-one else'. Well played sir.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Can't say I've followed the DA situation so I know nothing about that. But I have followed Cobb and that is a good example of solid analysis in the SP. But I think it was a pretty easy assessment to make. There were many things going Cobb's way as he entered his rookie season. MVP QB, passing-focused team, impending retirement of starting WR. And then he returned a kick for a TD and caught a TD in his first game on national television. Dynasty/Keeper people picked him up knowing he'd be quality but that it would take time.

I didn't consider the pitfalls on Hillman. That's why I posted this thread. I caught Hillman fever. After all, the prospect of grabbing a starting RB off the WW to save your season is pretty intoxicating. And then we all drink each other's koolaid. That's where the problem is.

And I do think assessing the RB is harder than the WR. Need to think about it more but that's my hunch anyway.

this keeps coming off as hindsight bias; you're talking about the past as if what was going to happen in the future was obvious, when in reality I can't imagine you making such strong claims about Cobb, Hillman, and Wilson at the time their hype threads started. The fact is, the Shark Pool hypes up lots of players; what you're responsible for is deciphering what posts contain relevant information and what posts contain irrelevant circle jerking. Blaming the existence of hype threads for your poor WW management is simply self-serving bias.

So you ask me about a couple guys and I tell you I don't know much about one and that I thought the prospects for the other were very good (after mentioning earlier that I follow the Pack closely). Then you accuse me of hindsight bias. Strange.You're right. I did not make such strong claims about those guys - Hillman and Wilson anyway. That's exactly my point. I want more, better information than what I often have to wade through. I want a David Yudkin for every team.

And I didn't ever blame the existence of hype threads for poor WW management. Nor have I said that I've poorly managed the WW. I'm just looking for something better without being sure what better is.

Again, you're misunderstanding my approach. I'm not complaining about my teams, my moves, etc. I'm trying to figure out how to get better information to make better decisions. Seems lost on you but I'm beginning to think that's par for the course.

Ok, so you already knew Cobb was gonna be good, how bout Cecil Shorts or perhaps Kaepernick? The Shark Pool has hyped both of them in recent weeks and they've each delivered so far. Again, the Shark Pool hypes lots of players, your task is to interpret which of those threads are baseless and which are foretelling.It appears pretty obvious to me that you are blaming your misfortunes on others. It wasn't your fault that you picked up Hillman instead of Moreno, it's the Shark Pool's fault for providing misinformation.

If all you're looking for is informed opinions by homers without having to wade through nonsense posts, then why not just read articles from each NFL team's beat writer?

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Can't say I've followed the DA situation so I know nothing about that. But I have followed Cobb and that is a good example of solid analysis in the SP. But I think it was a pretty easy assessment to make. There were many things going Cobb's way as he entered his rookie season. MVP QB, passing-focused team, impending retirement of starting WR. And then he returned a kick for a TD and caught a TD in his first game on national television. Dynasty/Keeper people picked him up knowing he'd be quality but that it would take time.

I didn't consider the pitfalls on Hillman. That's why I posted this thread. I caught Hillman fever. After all, the prospect of grabbing a starting RB off the WW to save your season is pretty intoxicating. And then we all drink each other's koolaid. That's where the problem is.

And I do think assessing the RB is harder than the WR. Need to think about it more but that's my hunch anyway.

this keeps coming off as hindsight bias; you're talking about the past as if what was going to happen in the future was obvious, when in reality I can't imagine you making such strong claims about Cobb, Hillman, and Wilson at the time their hype threads started. The fact is, the Shark Pool hypes up lots of players; what you're responsible for is deciphering what posts contain relevant information and what posts contain irrelevant circle jerking. Blaming the existence of hype threads for your poor WW management is simply self-serving bias.

So you ask me about a couple guys and I tell you I don't know much about one and that I thought the prospects for the other were very good (after mentioning earlier that I follow the Pack closely). Then you accuse me of hindsight bias. Strange.You're right. I did not make such strong claims about those guys - Hillman and Wilson anyway. That's exactly my point. I want more, better information than what I often have to wade through. I want a David Yudkin for every team.

And I didn't ever blame the existence of hype threads for poor WW management. Nor have I said that I've poorly managed the WW. I'm just looking for something better without being sure what better is.

Again, you're misunderstanding my approach. I'm not complaining about my teams, my moves, etc. I'm trying to figure out how to get better information to make better decisions. Seems lost on you but I'm beginning to think that's par for the course.

Ok, so you already knew Cobb was gonna be good, how bout Cecil Shorts or perhaps Kaepernick? The Shark Pool has hyped both of them in recent weeks and they've each delivered so far. Again, the Shark Pool hypes lots of players, your task is to interpret which of those threads are baseless and which are foretelling.It appears pretty obvious to me that you are blaming your misfortunes on others. It wasn't your fault that you picked up Hillman instead of Moreno, it's the Shark Pool's fault for providing misinformation.

If all you're looking for is informed opinions by homers without having to wade through nonsense posts, then why not just read articles from each NFL team's beat writer?

You should reread post #10. Seems you've already made up your mind on where you stand on this and presume to have all the facts. I'd say more but you're doing a fine job of undermining yourself.

 

[dollarbill13]

Groupthink can exist in fantasy circles but I think it's more likely to exist in closer knit circles within individual leagues or with co-owners where you have more direct communication and a sense of pressure to create a consensus. On FBG, there are certainly hype trains but I don't necessarily think that equates to groupthink.