TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
We're steaming ahead toward the end of draft season, so for the most part it feels like the dye has been cast on how players are being perceived. And there are always some where you wonder why you're on an island in your eval - and some islands are bigger than others. Doesn't mean that you're right/wrong...just seeing things from a different POV. Here are mine...(ranking 1/2 PPR FantasyPros)
Alvin Kamara (RB25): Brees has been retired for 2 years now. In that time, the Saints have had the following starting QB's:
Andy Dalton: 14
Jameis Winston: 10
Taysom Hill: 5
Trevor Siemian: 4
Ian Book: 1
They've been so desperate for RB support that in both seasons they either signed or traded for the corpse of Mark Ingram. So I don't see the signing of Williams as a detriment to Kamara, but someone to help distribute the load which is when Kamara WAS Kamara.
The 3 game suspension takes additional buzz off him, but I'm betting he's still an RB1 as the offense seems better position than at anytime since Brees retired to take advantage of his skillset.
Dameon Pierce (RB21): If you remember last year, Pierce was a pre-season star. If there was any RB who rose thru the pre-draft process, it was Pierce. Along with Breece Hall, both were the two 'new talents' on the scene.
A year later after what I would characterize as a very successful rookie year...there is NO buzz around Pierce. I thought he'd start getting some love as August progressed, but August simply doesn't move the needle in FF rankings like it once did. But prior to missing the last 4 games of the season, Pierce was on a 327 touch 17 game pace (Nick Chubb had 329). Yes, Devin Singletary has been brought on board to help carry the load, but I see that as a plus. Shaving 10-15% off of Pierce's workload while assuming the Burkhead/Ogunbowale workload gives Singletary the 8-10 touch compliment that keeps Pierce fresh but still gives hi a 280 touch outcome.
And for me...if an RB is getting that type of workload...I don't see how he can be ranked in the 20's especially with how good he looked.
Isaiah Pacheco (RB29): It's certainly possible a CEH back to full health may shave off a few snaps/game as McKinnon feels like a very package specific player. But there's a physicality that Pacheco brings to that running game that CEH never brought. Also...when Pacheco took over the starting job after the bye, he still only averaged 29 snaps/game. While the run game will always be secondary in that offense, there are probably aspects to what McKinnon brought to the offense in 2022 that Pacheco could start to usurp. We know Pacheco was dealing with a shoulder injury for most of last season and after the bye, McKinnon outsnapped Pacheco, probably more out of necessity.
I'm not saying Pacheco is an RB1. But in those 13 games after the bye including the playoffs he put up 1022/5 (YFS/TD) numbers...RB29 just feels REAL low.
Aaron Rodgers (QB15): Tom Brady's last season in NE feels really similar to Rodgers last one in GB. Even statistically, his unimpressive 4058/24/8 in 613 pass attempts while the offense appeared broken has similarities to Rodgers 3695/26/12 2022..
Here's the thing...everything that you believed about the Jets offense prior to 2023 is off the table. This isn't Joe Douglas's team. It's not Robert Saleh's team. It's Aaron Rodgers' team. Douglas/Saleh are betting THEIR careers on Rodgers, not vice-versa. So, 536 pass attempts that you saw Rodgers make under Lafleur in 2022? Nah - that's a 600 minimum number in 2023. The only way that his attempts are lower than that is if he's off the charts efficient and productive. And so while there is excitement about quite a few QB's like Lawrence/Deshaun ranked at that 8-9 area...I feel better about Rodgers here. I think people have written him off to early from the 'elite FF QB category'.
I think most are seeing that there is alot of upside here. But I also think people are forgetting what upside with Rodgers can really mean.
Calvin Ridley (WR18): When I'm looking at the WR rankings, I see the following ranked higher than Ridley.
Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St.Brown
Chris Olave
Tee Higgins
I get the layoff factor. Ridley's circumstances are certainly unique to try and value him. And I'm also not saying that Ridley will outperform any of the WR's listed. but in his last full season, he went 90/1374/9 in 15 games and in 2021 was ranked in the WR5 range.
This is another guy that I think the FF community is warming up to as a legit force, but is still classifying a tier (maybe 2) too low based on not only what he can do, but the upgrade in QB he now has. In short...I'm predicting a Stefon Diggs to BUF type impact. I also think that Ridley has done alot to own up to his mistakes, explained from his POV the circumstances that led to the problems of the last 2 years and if I'm betting, he's got a chip on his shoulder to reclaim a spot as one of the best WR's in the NFL.
Alvin Kamara (RB25): Brees has been retired for 2 years now. In that time, the Saints have had the following starting QB's:
Andy Dalton: 14
Jameis Winston: 10
Taysom Hill: 5
Trevor Siemian: 4
Ian Book: 1
They've been so desperate for RB support that in both seasons they either signed or traded for the corpse of Mark Ingram. So I don't see the signing of Williams as a detriment to Kamara, but someone to help distribute the load which is when Kamara WAS Kamara.
The 3 game suspension takes additional buzz off him, but I'm betting he's still an RB1 as the offense seems better position than at anytime since Brees retired to take advantage of his skillset.
Dameon Pierce (RB21): If you remember last year, Pierce was a pre-season star. If there was any RB who rose thru the pre-draft process, it was Pierce. Along with Breece Hall, both were the two 'new talents' on the scene.
A year later after what I would characterize as a very successful rookie year...there is NO buzz around Pierce. I thought he'd start getting some love as August progressed, but August simply doesn't move the needle in FF rankings like it once did. But prior to missing the last 4 games of the season, Pierce was on a 327 touch 17 game pace (Nick Chubb had 329). Yes, Devin Singletary has been brought on board to help carry the load, but I see that as a plus. Shaving 10-15% off of Pierce's workload while assuming the Burkhead/Ogunbowale workload gives Singletary the 8-10 touch compliment that keeps Pierce fresh but still gives hi a 280 touch outcome.
And for me...if an RB is getting that type of workload...I don't see how he can be ranked in the 20's especially with how good he looked.
Isaiah Pacheco (RB29): It's certainly possible a CEH back to full health may shave off a few snaps/game as McKinnon feels like a very package specific player. But there's a physicality that Pacheco brings to that running game that CEH never brought. Also...when Pacheco took over the starting job after the bye, he still only averaged 29 snaps/game. While the run game will always be secondary in that offense, there are probably aspects to what McKinnon brought to the offense in 2022 that Pacheco could start to usurp. We know Pacheco was dealing with a shoulder injury for most of last season and after the bye, McKinnon outsnapped Pacheco, probably more out of necessity.
I'm not saying Pacheco is an RB1. But in those 13 games after the bye including the playoffs he put up 1022/5 (YFS/TD) numbers...RB29 just feels REAL low.
Aaron Rodgers (QB15): Tom Brady's last season in NE feels really similar to Rodgers last one in GB. Even statistically, his unimpressive 4058/24/8 in 613 pass attempts while the offense appeared broken has similarities to Rodgers 3695/26/12 2022..
Here's the thing...everything that you believed about the Jets offense prior to 2023 is off the table. This isn't Joe Douglas's team. It's not Robert Saleh's team. It's Aaron Rodgers' team. Douglas/Saleh are betting THEIR careers on Rodgers, not vice-versa. So, 536 pass attempts that you saw Rodgers make under Lafleur in 2022? Nah - that's a 600 minimum number in 2023. The only way that his attempts are lower than that is if he's off the charts efficient and productive. And so while there is excitement about quite a few QB's like Lawrence/Deshaun ranked at that 8-9 area...I feel better about Rodgers here. I think people have written him off to early from the 'elite FF QB category'.
I think most are seeing that there is alot of upside here. But I also think people are forgetting what upside with Rodgers can really mean.
Calvin Ridley (WR18): When I'm looking at the WR rankings, I see the following ranked higher than Ridley.
Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St.Brown
Chris Olave
Tee Higgins
I get the layoff factor. Ridley's circumstances are certainly unique to try and value him. And I'm also not saying that Ridley will outperform any of the WR's listed. but in his last full season, he went 90/1374/9 in 15 games and in 2021 was ranked in the WR5 range.
This is another guy that I think the FF community is warming up to as a legit force, but is still classifying a tier (maybe 2) too low based on not only what he can do, but the upgrade in QB he now has. In short...I'm predicting a Stefon Diggs to BUF type impact. I also think that Ridley has done alot to own up to his mistakes, explained from his POV the circumstances that led to the problems of the last 2 years and if I'm betting, he's got a chip on his shoulder to reclaim a spot as one of the best WR's in the NFL.