Early Keeper Advice (1 Viewer)

[taylorjt4]

12 team league, 1 qb 2 rb 3 wr 1te lineup. QB's are more valuable as all td's are 6 points including td passes...
Can keep up to 3 players, lose your 1st round pick if you keep 3, gain 1st round pick if you keep 1.

Keeper options for me are:
Jalen Hurts
Kenneth Walker
D'Andre Swift
Davante Adams
Garrett Wilson

Never kept a QB before in this league but Hurts is really tough to give up. I think Walker is right at top 10 for rb's
I kept Adams last year and he did great...

 

[Gally]

QB's are more valuable as all td's are 6 points including td passes.

This does not make QB's more valuable. It makes running QB's slightly less valuable compared to high TD pass QB's.

The general relative value of QB's doesn't really change.

What happens with your first round pick of you keep 2? How many QB's are typically kept? Do you know what pick (1st rounder) you will have?

 

[taylorjt4]

QB's are more valuable as all td's are 6 points including td passes.

This does not make QB's more valuable. It makes running QB's slightly less valuable compared to high TD pass QB's.

The general relative value of QB's doesn't really change.

What happens with your first round pick of you keep 2? How many QB's are typically kept? Do you know what pick (1st rounder) you will have?

2 is like the standard amount of keepers, you still have a 1st round pick. Normally only the top 3ish quarterbacks have been kept in the past.
I wont know draft order until a few weeks before the draft, its a random order.

 

[Gally]

QB's are more valuable as all td's are 6 points including td passes.

This does not make QB's more valuable. It makes running QB's slightly less valuable compared to high TD pass QB's.

The general relative value of QB's doesn't really change.

What happens with your first round pick of you keep 2? How many QB's are typically kept? Do you know what pick (1st rounder) you will have?

2 is like the standard amount of keepers, you still have a 1st round pick. Normally only the top 3ish quarterbacks have been kept in the past.
I wont know draft order until a few weeks before the draft, its a random order.

In a 1 QB league I would keep Walker and Wilson depending on how long you can keep a guy. If you can wait until you know your draft pick spot then I might change my answer

 

[taylorjt4]

In a 1 QB league I would keep Walker and Wilson depending on how long you can keep a guy. If you can wait until you know your draft pick spot then I might change my answer

Unfortunately, draft order comes out after keepers are due....

 

[Boudewijn]

This does not make QB's more valuable.

Yes it does actually. It makes them more valuable compared to RB/WR/TE. It also means (you're correct in this) that it benefits the non-running QBs more, but essentially it means you should draft your QBs earlier than you would in a 4pt QB league.

Jalen Hurts
Kenneth Walker
D'Andre Swift
Davante Adams
Garrett Wilson

Hurts seems like a great option. You don't mention though if this is PPR?

 

[Gally]

Yes it does actually. It makes them more valuable compared to RB/WR/TE. It also means (you're correct in this) that it benefits the non-running QBs more, but essentially it means you should draft your QBs earlier than you would in a 4pt QB league.

I disagree. The relative value of QB's to QB's doesn't change and that is what matters regarding when you should take a QB vs other positions. You will still get a QB that scores relatively the same to the other QB's taken and since it's a 1 QB league the position isn't scarce. Plenty of playable QB's for the position.

You don't need to worry about the QB pts vs other position points. It's the relative difference withing that position. Every team can only play one QB. So no need to force a QB

 

[taylorjt4]

Yes it does actually. It makes them more valuable compared to RB/WR/TE. It also means (you're correct in this) that it benefits the non-running QBs more, but essentially it means you should draft your QBs earlier than you would in a 4pt QB league.

I disagree. The relative value of QB's to QB's doesn't change and that is what matters regarding when you should take a QB vs other positions. You will still get a QB that scores relatively the same to the other QB's taken and since it's a 1 QB league the position isn't scarce. Plenty of playable QB's for the position.

You don't need to worry about the QB pts vs other position points. It's the relative difference withing that position. Every team can only play one QB. So no need to force a QB

So when I look at cheatsheet rankings, the overalls for QB's shoot up when the point value changes for TD's..
For example: Jalen Hurts is 17 and Josh Allen is 18 when TD's are worth 4. Change that to 6 and Allen shoots up to 9th and Hurts stays at 17.

I am in a half point PPR league....

The dilemma is keeping Hurts or taking a chance on where my draft spot is and missing out on him altogether.

 

[Gally]

Yes it does actually. It makes them more valuable compared to RB/WR/TE. It also means (you're correct in this) that it benefits the non-running QBs more, but essentially it means you should draft your QBs earlier than you would in a 4pt QB league.

I disagree. The relative value of QB's to QB's doesn't change and that is what matters regarding when you should take a QB vs other positions. You will still get a QB that scores relatively the same to the other QB's taken and since it's a 1 QB league the position isn't scarce. Plenty of playable QB's for the position.

You don't need to worry about the QB pts vs other position points. It's the relative difference withing that position. Every team can only play one QB. So no need to force a QB

So when I look at cheatsheet rankings, the overalls for QB's shoot up when the point value changes for TD's..
For example: Jalen Hurts is 17 and Josh Allen is 18 when TD's are worth 4. Change that to 6 and Allen shoots up to 9th and Hurts stays at 17.

I am in a half point PPR league....

The dilemma is keeping Hurts or taking a chance on where my draft spot is and missing out on him altogether.

I think a select few QB's make the jump (Mahomes and Allen are probably the only two for me) but by and large they stay the same (see Hurts stated at #17 in your example). My comment was that you don't need to force QB in a 6 pt TD league because the relative value of QB's stays the same across their position. A couple guys will elevate and it's up to you whether they make sense over other positions that early. But don't force QB's.

For the keeper question I think I still only keep 2 and take my chances with a first round pick. There may be someone you like better than Hurts available to you in that spot. Essentially that is the dilemma you have to solve. Is Hurts worth the flexibility of my first round pick? For me, that would be no.

 

[Boudewijn]

The relative value of QB's to QB's doesn't change and that is what matters regarding when you should take a QB vs other positions.

That first one isn't exactly true, but at least you can defend that it's close, but the second one is not correct at all of course.
Let me rephrase your statements in a way I believe them to be true.

1) The relative value of QBs to QBs changes (especially running vs non-running) but also the absolute difference between a top QB (who tosses many TDs) vs a lower QB (fewer passing TDs).
I don't think that will need clarification, right?

2) What matter regarding when you should take a QB vs other positions, is the relative advantage of a top QB, vs the other positions.
I sort of assume that's also obvious, but let's give a quick calculation.

a) Say we play PPR, 4 pt pass TD, we compare the 3rd round vs the 8th round. You draft a QB high and a TE low, I do the opposite. When we look at what your QB scores in ppg vs mine, you have an advantage of roughly 6-7 ppg, my 3rd round TE scores barely 4 ppg more than your 8th rounder. You win. Clearly it's the relative value of both positions that matters.

b) Now let's take 2 positions that are closer. I went for the 3rd round WR, not TE, and we find that this is more like a 5-6 point advantage over the 8th rounder. So you still do better, but my WR is more defensible.

c) Now we go to 6 pt pass TDs. Suddenly those top QBs gain more like 8 ppg over the middle rounders, and now you are clearly the winner again with your early QB.

Makes more sense? Or maybe I completely misunderstood what you were saying?

 

[Gally]

1) The relative value of QBs to QBs changes (especially running vs non-running) but also the absolute difference between a top QB (who tosses many TDs) vs a lower QB (fewer passing TDs).
I don't think that will need clarification, right?

2) What matter regarding when you should take a QB vs other positions, is the relative advantage of a top QB, vs the other positions.
I sort of assume that's also obvious, but let's give a quick calculation.

If you read my entire post you will see that I agree there are a few (I think Mahomes and Allen are the only two for me) QB's that do jump in value and should be considered. I went on to say that other than that the other QB's are similarly valued with respect to each other (personal preferences aside) that you don't have to force QB's in that format because relative to each other the value is similar as in 4 TD leagues.

The overall point I was trying to make is that just because TD's are worth 6 pts doesn't increase value of all QB's to the point you have to force them. There are elite guys that it benefits and bumps them up relative to other positions because of the scoring but by and large beyond those few guys you can still wait on QB's and be just fine.

 

[taylorjt4]

1) The relative value of QBs to QBs changes (especially running vs non-running) but also the absolute difference between a top QB (who tosses many TDs) vs a lower QB (fewer passing TDs).
I don't think that will need clarification, right?

2) What matter regarding when you should take a QB vs other positions, is the relative advantage of a top QB, vs the other positions.
I sort of assume that's also obvious, but let's give a quick calculation.

If you read my entire post you will see that I agree there are a few (I think Mahomes and Allen are the only two for me) QB's that do jump in value and should be considered. I went on to say that other than that the other QB's are similarly valued with respect to each other (personal preferences aside) that you don't have to force QB's in that format because relative to each other the value is similar as in 4 TD leagues.

The overall point I was trying to make is that just because TD's are worth 6 pts doesn't increase value of all QB's to the point you have to force them. There are elite guys that it benefits and bumps them up relative to other positions because of the scoring but by and large beyond those few guys you can still wait on QB's and be just fine.

Great discussion on both sides..
looking at PPG from qb's last year for my league, the top 4(Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Burrow) averaged over 26.6 points per game. Jackson was ranked 5th at 5 points less a game coming in at 21.67. There is a big cluster from 5th to 14th with 20-21 ppg. Thats my reasoning in maybe including Hurts as a keeper. Im pretty confident Mahomes and Allen will be keepers by others.

 

[Gally]

Thats my reasoning in maybe including Hurts as a keeper

Hurts should actually take a bit of a hit relative to other QB's in 6 pt for all TD leagues as a 1/3 of his TD's came from rushing. Can you count on another 13 rushing TD's next year to off set his 22 passing TD's? Maybe, but I am not sure it's likely. I would rather get a guy that is more consistent 30+ TD passes in this type of league because that is more reliable than that big of a percentage coming from rushing.

 

[taylorjt4]

Circling back around.... even with Mahomes, Allen, Jackson being gone, I shouldnt keep Hurts? tough decision....

 

[Gally]

Circling back around.... even with Mahomes, Allen, Jackson being gone, I shouldnt keep Hurts? tough decision....

I still wouldn't keep a QB