Birdie048
Footballguy
Check the Cecil Lammey video I added .... but again, nothing "concrete" about lost a step.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Let’s see how he looks in the preseason, whatever team he is with.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
We hear so much about NFL guys, especially young RBs bouncing back 100% from full knee reconstruction that it almost stands out when one doesn't get back to speed. It wouldn't surprise me, given the severity of his injury, that he just isn't the same. That said, Denver would be nuts to move (or cut) him if he's 100% back in form. I'm with JohnnyU here in saying that I'd like to see how he looks in camp and the preseason before passing any judgement.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I can only recall Marcus Lattimore's injury being worse... career ending essentially
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In hindsight I probably should have.
If he is the best player on your board take him. Rookie drafts are dart throws. Increase your chances of hitting by taking the highest guy on your board. Don't worry about positions. If your guy hits you will have options to fill positions of need later. Taking a guy that doesn't hit is the biggest detriment to your team at this point and picking a lesser player due to positional need only raises the chance you miss on the pick.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
While I agree with this, not all positions hit at the same rate.
TEs in particular have a reputation of having a below average rookie hit rate.
I haven’t seen recent data to know if this adage still holds true.
And that should be included in your rankings. I didn't say take a certain position. I said, take your highest rated player. Trust your rankings. If you don't trust TE's to hit that should be reflected in your rankings. Bump Bowers down if you think TE's are harder to hit. It doesn't change my advice which is to take your highest rated player regardless of position.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agreed.
Just wanted to point it out because in this context we’re specifically talking about whether the OP should take Bowers there.
But yeah, totally agree with this.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Estime could be a JAG, but I like his situation much more. Plenty of FF relevant RB JAGs over the years as you know.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
More in Denver than any team in history I’d bet.
TartanLion
Footballguy
1QB, guy with 1.03 has put it up for sale.
I look at his team just to see what there is to pick at and he has Sam Laporta. I wonder about offering Jefferson for basically Odunze and Laporta. Someone tell me I’m mad please and I’m just bored. Changing of the QB in Minny has to be thought about though. It’s within the range of possibilities that Jefferson’s numbers could fall and so his value could as well. But just tell me I’m mad or bored. Thanks in advance
I look at his team just to see what there is to pick at and he has Sam Laporta. I wonder about offering Jefferson for basically Odunze and Laporta. Someone tell me I’m mad please and I’m just bored. Changing of the QB in Minny has to be thought about though. It’s within the range of possibilities that Jefferson’s numbers could fall and so his value could as well. But just tell me I’m mad or bored. Thanks in advance
eighsse2
Footballguy
Here's an interesting one. Don't know where to post this but whatever. Let's say you have the 1.01. And Team X has the 1.02. You like Harrison over Nabers. Team X like Nabers over Harrison, and let's say hypothetically that you know this for a fact (it's not deception on Team X's part). Does that mean you should draft Nabers and trade to Team X for the 1.02 + some juice? Or maybe simply threaten to draft Nabers, and offer him the 1.01 for the same?
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I wouldn't draft Nabers in hopes of him drafting and then trading Harrison. I would just pick Harrison.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I guess in real life my hypothetical would break down. You cannot KNOW that Team X isn't bluffing.
Never draft someone for the main purpose of trading them to someone else. it never nets you the return you think you can get. Just take the guy you want or offer up the pick and if you can get something that make it worth your while to have the .001% chance you miss out on your guy (in your scenario) then do it. But in the end....just take your guy.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
It would take an act of congress to get Jefferson off my roster even with my love for Oduzne (Cousins or no Cousins). Realistically I'd need LaPota, 1.03 and another strong asset to make that trade. And that's assuming a strong Tight End Premium in the league.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If it’s TE-P, you’re not crazy, but we don’t know if Odunze is anywhere near the caliber of JJ in the pros.
JJ should (should) be QB-proof.
But I wouldn’t sell JJ for LaPorta + a not guaranteed stud. On paper it looks good. In practice you’re taking a MASSIVE risk. If Odunze is a bust, you’ll be searching Amazon for Seppuku swords or combing the white pages for a good therapist to talk you off of that ledge.
DON’T JUMP!!!
(Seriously though - I wouldn’t do this. You’re bored. Find a way to get the 1.03 or LaPorta without losing JJ)
Lehigh98
Footballguy
OBJ was going top 3 in SF dynasty startups at one point, don't be crazy, a bad rookie QB can ruin any receiver, JJ can be great but people are overvaluing him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If any WR is QB-proof, it’s JJ.
3quinox825
Footballguy
12 team PPR superflex
Would you trade
tee Higgins
2025 1st plus early to mid
trey lance
For
1.03
3.6
Would you trade
tee Higgins
2025 1st plus early to mid
trey lance
For
1.03
3.6
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No, I would not.
Lance is questionable value. I’m leaving him out.
I’d take my chances that Higgins bounces back and hold on to the early to mid 2025 1st.
It just feels like too much to gamble. You know Higgins is capable of big numbers - and he cold still go somewhere else and be the WR1. He’s only 25.
Others may disagree, but I think it’s an overpay.
TartanLion
Footballguy
Thank you for halting my temporary madness
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That said, I can still sell him to that same Russ shareholder at any time.
He might even sell me Russ, for an added twist.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s what we’re here for my friend.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Some good points here. Estime or Davis could be the ones to get the earliest look depending how they do in camp. Payton likes to use multiple backs and he's looking for RBs that can do specific things. Estime wasn't high on my list but opportunity could come sooner than later for him. Davis is another guy that may get an opportunity with not many in front of him.
In general let's remember these late round RBs have a big hill to climb. Everyone always wants the new rookies to immediately come in and take over. The starters in front of them have done it before in the NFL. They are proven. So until the rookie proves they are better than the vet and can do all the things asked of them, they will sit behind the vet - no matter how much you don't like the vet.
We could tell a story of each one of these RBs and why we should hold them. Sometimes it comes down to fit in the offense/scheme and opportunity. I wouldn't mind rostering all these guys but realistically to pick 1 or 2 at this stage is tough to do. Any of them could hit but they all could miss too. Go back and look over the past years and see how many RBs hit from rounds 4-6. It isn't many.
For 2024 I probably go Estime, Davis and then Bucky but long term (2 years from now) maybe Tracy or Vidal eventually take over.
Realistically if I had these guys and one hits in 2024 I probably flip them for a 2025 pick.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Very real statement.
The order could change from pre-season Camp reports or week to week during the season. Time will tell and value is often in those with patience.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree about flipping though - it’s the sort of thing where with little draft capital invested they could trade JaWill, start Estime, then move on to another cheap draft pick in 2025. Or maybe they invest in a better caliber prospect by then.
That’s the unsaid thing about a lot of the 2024 RBs - none are considered elites and none have the draft capital to have job security.
Sure, there’s a chance one of them hits & sticks, but long odds.
I’d rather invest in a Guerendo a couple rounds later and hope he gets the RB2 gig & maybe gets a shot as CMC finishes his career in SF.
Lash
Footballguy
I would do that deal, very deep class this year so the 30th best player in this draft will be a good gamble, plus you are assured of either MHJr/Caleb/Daniels ... next year's class is weak at QB and top heavy but not a lotta depth at WR so you will likely be getting a RB with your mid 1st not a QB. I like Tee but who knows about his future after 2024
So giving up Tee and 2025 RB for Jaydon Daniels (or MHJr) and the 3.06 seems fair to me, plus Tee value dropping each year for the past two years isn't the trend I am looking for
Not Schrader who comes even later?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh I like Schrader too. I have 2 shares. Just obtained a share of Guerendo.
Same point about both - with the possible exception of Brooks, it’s all a crap shoot this year, so wait and take the bargains.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
anyone ever outbid yourselves?
Like ya worked to balance a deal, then added one more piece to “put it over the top”, and then found out later that they woulda taken it anyway?
I seem to do this a lot. lol
I need to learn to come in low and negotiate from there. It’s a skill I lack, apparently.
Like ya worked to balance a deal, then added one more piece to “put it over the top”, and then found out later that they woulda taken it anyway?
I seem to do this a lot. lol
I need to learn to come in low and negotiate from there. It’s a skill I lack, apparently.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Yep, did it in our last rookie draft trading up. Sometimes I just need to be patient but when you want your guy....
Big Nate
Footballguy
Good point about 2025. Supposed to be a strong RB class. Any of these round 4-6 2024 RBs could be replaced in a heartbeat with a 2nd round RB drafted in 2025. That is why I would most likely flip any later round pick for a 2025 pick and reroll. Of course if I need a spot start at RB I will keep but if I don't need the RB I'm probably flipping or adding to a package to improve my team.
I'll overpay, sometimes, to generate goodwill. There are a few guys in my three leagues that we trade amongst ourselves and not give each other a hard time on every single deal cuz we "know" it'll get made up later.
It's not collusion cuz we've never discussed it, but I know which guys are easy to trade with (sometimes they get a deal from me) and which guys are a freaking pain in the rear on every deal... they never get a discount
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, same. Exactly the same. After a number of years you just get into a groove with some owners, and other owners are just difficult to deal with. So you tend to go back to the well. Totally get it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Big Nate
Footballguy
Wow, never thought of it that way lol. Definitely some truth to it!
OL are your orc warriors, WRs are your diva thieves, QB is your wizard, and Deshaun Watson's massage therapists are your healers.
Owners that know what they want and are confident in their evaluation abilities are easy to deal with. Insecure owners that need justification or someone to tell them it's ok are always hard to deal with.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - I’m trying to work with a dude now - put up an offer. Said he liked some of the pieces, but try again.
Bruh - that’s called a “counter” - don’t make me do allllll the work.
eighsse2
Footballguy
His counter wasYeah - I’m trying to work with a dude now - put up an offer. Said he liked some of the pieces, but try again.
Bruh - that’s called a “counter” - don’t make me do allllll the work.
You give: {}
He gives: {}
Mull it over. I wouldn't say it's a bad offer.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Yeah, that's super frustrating. Almost as frustrating as the owner who wants to counter on every single trade to try to eek out another 5th rounder or WR7.His counter wasYeah - I’m trying to work with a dude now - put up an offer. Said he liked some of the pieces, but try again.
Bruh - that’s called a “counter” - don’t make me do allllll the work.
You give: {}
He gives: {}
Mull it over. I wouldn't say it's a bad offer.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s even more annoying. It’s always an automatic accept, but it just feels weasily - especially when I’m already overpaying.Yeah, that's super frustrating. Almost as frustrating as the owner who wants to counter on every single trade to try to eke out another 5th rounder or WR7.His counter wasYeah - I’m trying to work with a dude now - put up an offer. Said he liked some of the pieces, but try again.
Bruh - that’s called a “counter” - don’t make me do allllll the work.
You give: {}
He gives: {}
Mull it over. I wouldn't say it's a bad offer.
Had a dude agree to terms on GroupMe, then when I sent the offer we agreed to he countered to get Lavonte David too.
Dude’s old AF so had he been in the negotiation I probably would have agreed to include him, but the way it went down was just so gutless.
I vowed to never trade with that dude again.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Some owners never accept trades offered to them, only those they offer if a deal gets done. Yes, those are the ones who also have to tweak a deal to death and I laugh at them when I reject and they miss out on a good deal because of their greed. Then they realize their mistake and come back with a trade offer I previously made.Yeah, that's super frustrating. Almost as frustrating as the owner who wants to counter on every single trade to try to eke out another 5th rounder or WR7.His counter wasYeah - I’m trying to work with a dude now - put up an offer. Said he liked some of the pieces, but try again.
Bruh - that’s called a “counter” - don’t make me do allllll the work.
You give: {}
He gives: {}
Mull it over. I wouldn't say it's a bad offer.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Yeah - I’m trying to work with a dude now - put up an offer. Said he liked some of the pieces, but try again.
Bruh - that’s called a “counter” - don’t make me do allllll the work.
At least he engaged. I sent an offer to a guy last night for the immortal Jameson Williams, asking if he’d consider moving him and that I’m flexible on pieces. His response was “No. Not now, not ever. Sorry bruddah”. Which was just plain stupid on so many levels.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At least you got a response!
I put up very generous offers for Stafford (one owner) and ARod (different owner) 2 days ago, and so far
Not really a fan of ARod, but it’s SF and I’m a little desperate for a QB2.
But yeah - at least ya got a response!!
finfansteve
Footballguy
99.99999% of my trades go unanswered in my main league in the offseason it’s pretty frustrating. Not sure how you can be in a dynasty league and run your team like you’re in a redraft leagueAt least you got a response!
I put up very generous offers for Stafford (one owner) and ARod (different owner) 2 days ago, and so far
Not really a fan of ARod, but it’s SF and I’m a little desperate for a QB2.
But yeah - at least ya got a response!!
Big Nate
Footballguy
I'm very active leading up to our rookie draft as well as in draft. I think I made 5 trades during our rookie draft. But I will be honest, now that our draft is done, I'm in a wait and see mode. I made most of my moves and waiting to closer to the season before making any big moves. Obviously I will still entertain deals but I have trouble making trades now just to make a trade. Unless I have a big need or hole to fill I usually wait until closer to the season.99.99999% of my trades go unanswered in my main league in the offseason it’s pretty frustrating. Not sure how you can be in a dynasty league and run your team like you’re in a redraft leagueAt least you got a response!
I put up very generous offers for Stafford (one owner) and ARod (different owner) 2 days ago, and so far
Not really a fan of ARod, but it’s SF and I’m a little desperate for a QB2.
But yeah - at least ya got a response!!
