Since situations always change perception and rookie drafts are full steam ahead, I thought I should post my post draft rankings.
Here are my pre-combine rankings: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=676867#entry15296264
-If you want analysis on each player, read it there.
Note: My rankings are in the PPR, start 1 QB format. The comparisons aren't who they will become, but who I would compare their game to in the NFL.
Tier One
1) Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee (Vikings)
6-2 205
2010(Hutchinson CC): 52 receptions, 908 yards, 17.5 9 TDs
-Patterson also added over 600 return yards with 3 TDs.
2011(Hutchinson CC): 61 receptions, 924 yards, 15.1 15 TDs
-Patterson also added almost 500 return yards with 3 TDs and almost 400 rushing yards with 6 TDs.
2012: 46 receptions, 778 yards, 16.9 5 TDs
-Patterson also added almost 800 return yards and 300 rushing yards in 2012.
Comparison: Taller Percy Harvin
Patterson is a true, boom or bust prospect. However, this class doesn't have anyone elite and they're all second tier players. Patterson gets the nod due to his unbelievable playmaking ability with the ball in his hands. (If you're interested in that aspect, PM me and i'll link you my article on his elusiveness). While Ponder isn't elite, I don't see Jennings or Rudolph commanding #1 targets beyond 2013.
2) Tavon Austin WR West Virginia (Rams)
5-9 174
2009: 15 receptions, 151 yards, 10.1 1 TD
2010: 58 receptions, 787 yards, 13.6 8 TD
2011: 101 receptions, 1186 yards, 11.7 8 TD
2012: 114 receptions, 1289 yards, 11.3 12 TD
-Over 1,000 career rushing yards and over 2,500 return yards.
Comparison: More explosive Randall Cobb with less strength. Think Jahvid Best like excitement with the football in his hands.
Austin is behind Patterson because of my lack of faith in Sam Bradford(it's worse than Ponder), his size and because the Rams suddenly have a lot of talented weapons: 3 talented RBs that can all catch the football, Cook/Kendricks, Quick/Givens/Austin/Bailey.
3) Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan State (Steelers)
6-2 244
2010: 107 carries, 605 yards, 5.7 YPC, 8 TD; 11 receptions, 97 yards, 8.8 0 TD
2011: 182 carries, 948 yards, 6.3 YPC, 13 TD; 35 receptions, 267 yards, 7.6 0 TD
2012: 382 carries, 1793 yards, 4.7 YPC, 12 TD; 32 receptions, 167 yards, 5.2 1TD
Comparison: Looks like LeGarrette Blount physically but possesses much better agility and hands.
Bell was down on my initial list because I didn't think the NFL valued bigger RBs anymore, apparently Pittsburgh does. Bell has very little competition for carries(Dwyer/Redman) and may even play all 3 downs. Bell has a freakish skillset and could be a monster in FF. Bell also gets a bump up here because I love the Steelers interior OL and think they could be dominant.
Tier 2
4) DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson (Texans)
6-1 200
2010: 51 receptions, 626 yards, 12.3 4 TDs
2011: 72 receptions, 978 yards, 13.6 5 TDs
2012: 82 receptions, 1405 yards, 17.1 18 TDs
Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald/Reggie Wayne(later in his career)
Hopkins landed in a great situation. He can learn from one of the best(AJ) to develop his game, play WR2 right away in 2012, and have many one on one matchups due to AJ/good running game. If you want a safe pick, Hopkins is your guy.
5) Eddie Lacy RB Alabama (Packers)
5-10 220
2010: 56 carries 406 yards 7.3 6 TD, 2 receptions, 18 yards, 9.0 0 TD
2011: 95 carries 674 yards 7.1 7 TD, 11 receptions, 131 yards, 11.9 0 TD
2012: 184 carries 1182 yards 6.4 16 TD, 20 receptions, 172 yards, 8.6 1 TD
Comparison: Poor Man’s Frank Gore
Notes:
-Bothered by turf toe injury for 2 years.
What a fall from grace for Lacy. Riding high after a great last few games of the season. Then a hamstring injury, then no combine, no pro day, late pro day, poor workout numbers/couldn't finish the workout, didn't get drafted until late in round 2, GB drafted Jon Franklin in round 4. I don't think Lacy is a bad FF prospect at all, I just don't think he's as sure of a thing as he was a few months ago. The NFL told us what they thought of him and the Packers hedged their bet by pairing Franklin with him. I see his future as a RBBC with Franklin taking over the 3rd down duties with Lacy having GL duty.
6) Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina (Bengals)
5-10 205
2010: Redshirted after tearing the ACL in his right knee
2011: 239 carries 1253 yards 5.2 13 TD, 45 receptions, 362 yards, 8.0 1 TD
2012: 184 carries 1228 yards 6.7 12 TD, 47 receptions, 490 yards, 10.4 5 TD
-Also has two return TDs, one was very clutch that won a game.
Comparison: Poor Man’s Brian Westbrook
Notes:
-Older brother, Yvenson Bernard, played RB at Oregon State in the mid 2000's.
-Torn ACL in 2010, missed 3 games due to a knee injury in 2012.
I'm not a fan of Gio's game, but he has a clear path to at least 3rd down duties right away. The Shark play may be to acquire BJGE(for the right price) because Gio has been hurt often in college, but only for 2013. Gio isn't special in any area, but he's effective.
7) Keenan Allen WR Cal (Chargers)
6-3 210
2010: 46 receptions, 490 yards, 10.7 5 TD
2011: 98 receptions, 1343 yards, 13.7 6 TD
2012: 61 receptions, 737 yards, 12.1 6 TD
-Also has one passing, two rushing, and one return TD at Cal.
Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald
Notes:
-Turned down a scholarship at Alabama to play FS to play WR at Cal with his half-brother QB Zach Maynard.
-Foot surgery in spring of 2012, MCL tear which ended his 2012 campaign.
Allen has had a similar fall from grace as Eddie Lacy. However, Allen landed in a good situation with little competition: Danario "glass" Alexander, Vincent Brown, Meachem, and an old Gates. Phillip Rivers isn't "who we thought he was" but he can still make a WR productive. It is concerning that teams let Allen fall to round 3, maybe his medicals is a bigger concern than we know.
8) Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame (Bengals)
6-6 251
2010: 27 receptions, 352 yards, 13.0 2 TDs
2011: 63 receptions, 803 yards, 12.7 5 TDs
2012: 50 receptions, 685 yards, 13.7 4 TDs
Comparison: Jason Witten
Notes:
Eifert took a big hit in value when Cinci drafted him. Gresham is a good TE, only 24, under contract for the next 2 years, and the OC has already said Gresham is the starter. Looks like Eifert owners will have to be patient. Lots of good young talent in Cinci: Green/Sanu/Jones/Hamilton/Hawkins/Gresham/Bernard/Eifert. It may be too crowded for him to get a ton of targets to be an elite FF TE.
Tier 3(big drop down)
9) Zac Stacy RB Vanderbilt (Rams)
5-11 216
2009: 107 carries 478 yards 4.5 3 TD, 7 receptions, 72 yards, 10.3 0 TD
2010: 66 carries 331 yards 5.0 3 TD, 9 receptions, 32 yards, 3.6 0 TD
2011: 201 carries 1193 yards 5.9 14 TD, 20 receptions, 106 yards, 5.3 0 TD
2012: 207 carries 1141 yards 5.5 10 TD, 10 receptions 205 yards 20.5 0 TD
-Also has two return TDs, one was very clutch that won a game.
Comparison: Smaller Mark Ingram
Notes:
Stacy is the most underrated player in this draft class. He's tough, smart, patient runner that uses his blockers very well. If he was faster I could easily see him being my #1 RB in this class. No reason why he can't overtake Pead(who I like) and Richardson for the starting job. Don't forget that the Rams traded up to obtain him.
10) Justin Hunter WR Tennessee (Titans)
6-4 200
2010: 16 receptions, 415 yards, 25.9 7 TD
2011: 17 receptions, 314 yards, 18.5 2 TD
2012: 73 receptions, 1083 yards, 14.8 9 TD
Comparison: Julio Jones/Randy Moss at best, flop at worst.
Notes:
-Torn ACL in 2011.
Hunter is very underwhelming to me on film, however he has great potential. In a down rookie class and at pick 10, why not shoot for the stars in hopes that Hunter can regain his explosiveness/game from his freshman season. Hunter looks like a great compliment to Kendall Wright, I have big concerns about Jake Locker making either a FF star in the future.
11) Jonathan Franklin RB UCLA (Packers)
5-10 205
2009: 126 carries, 566 yards, 4.5 YPC, 5 TDs; 6 receptions 57 yards, 9.5 0 TD
2010: 214 carries, 1127 yards, 5.3 YPC, 8 TDs; 10 receptions, 63 yards, 6.3 0 TD
2011: 166 carries, 976 yards, 5.9 YPC, 5 TD; 9 receptions, 74 yards, 8.2 1 TDs
2012: 282 carries, 1734 yards, 6.1 YPC, 13 TDs; 33 receptions, 323 yards,9.8 2 TD
Comparison: Curtis Martin
Notes:
-Assaulted just prior to training camp this year and suffered a concussion as a result.
-Lost weight as career progressed at Wisconsin(lost babyfat).
Outside shot at taking the GB job, but will have 3rd down duties most likely. Lacy hasn't been consistently healthy and Ted Thompson traded up for Franklin, something he rarely does. I think this battle is closer than people think.
12) Montee Ball RB Wisconsin (Broncos)
5-11 212
2009: 98 carries, 391 yards, 4.0 YPC, 4 TDs; 9 receptions 92 yards, 10.2 0 TD
2010: 163 carries, 996 yards, 6.1 YPC, 18 TDs; 16 receptions, 128 yards, 8.0 0 TD
2011: 307 carries, 1,923 yards, 6.3 YPC, 33 TD; 24 receptions, 306 yards, 12.8 6 TDs
2012: 332 carries, 1730 yards, 5.2 YPC, 21 TDs; 9 receptions, 65 yards, 7.2 0 TD
Comparison: Curtis Martin
Notes:
-Assaulted just prior to training camp this year and suffered a concussion as a result.
-Lost weight as career progressed at Wisconsin(lost babyfat).
Shocked Ball went as high as he did. However, he's in a questionable situation in Denver. It's a great landing spot because: Moreno/Hillman/McGahee aren't really talented/athletic RBs(anymore), Denver can support a good FF RB, Peyton Manning utilizes the RB out of the backfield, and a great WR core will keep 2 safety's deep. It's a bad situation because: is Ball anymore talented/athletic than Moreno/Hillman/McGahee, Fox doesn't play rookie RBs, Peyton will only be around 2 more seasons, and Ball is an underwhelming physical specimen.
13) Robert Woods WR USC (Bills)
6-1 190
2010: 65 receptions, 792 yards, 12.2 6 TD
2011: 111 receptions, 1,292, yards, 11.6 15 TD
2012: 73 receptions, 813 yards, 11.1 11 TD
Comparison: Lance Moore
Notes:
-Got demoted to the #2 option when Marqise Lee emerged late in 2011.
Woods landed in a good situation in Buffalo or did he? Stevie Johnson is locked up long term and will be the WR1 for the next few seasons. The Bills have drafted 3 WRs: TJ Graham, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin the last two seasons and signed Da'Rick Rogers/Brandon Kaufman as free agents. Combine that with Kevin Kolb and a rookie QB in EJ Manuel, i'm not too excited. Woods is exactly what the Bills needed, a reliable WR, but can he separate from the other young WRs in Buffalo?
14) Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State (Steelers)
6-0 182
2009: 8 receptions, 89 yards, 11.1 0 TDs
2010: 55 receptions, 675 yards, 12.3 4 TDs
2011: 73 receptions, 986 yards, 13.5 1 TDs
2012: 91 receptions, 1244 yards, 13.7 11 TDs
-Wheaton also has 5 career rushing TDs.
Comparison: Desean Jackson
Notes:
Wheaton is a great Mike Wallace replacement. Wheaton is talented, but so are Brown/Sanders. The amount of targets/his development/chemistry with Big Ben will put a big emphasis on his value. How many pure speed guys have consistent FF value? Many just take the top off the defense.
15) Eugene “Geno” Smith QB West Virginia (Jets)
6-3 215
2009: 32 of 49 65.3%, 309 yards, 6.31 YPA, 1 TD 1 INT
2010: 241 of 372 64.8%, 2763 yards, 7.43 YPA, 24 TD 7 INT
2011: 346 of 526 65.8%, 4385 yards, 8.34 YPA, 31 TD 7 INT
2012: 369 of 518 71.2%, 4205 yards, 8.12 YPA, 42 TD 6 INT
Comparison: Aaron Rodgers
Notes:
Geno tumbled in the draft and didn't land in a great situation. However, he should start sooner rather than later and is a very talented QB. Holmes/Hill are a start, but not a great pair to start an NFL career with. The Jets will seek out some weapons next offseason. Grab Geno in round 2 of your rookie drafts, but don't look for his career to take off until 2014.
16) Marcus Lattimore RB South Carolina (49ers)
6-0 218
2010: 249 carries, 1197 yards, 4.8 avg. 17 TD; 29 receptions, 412 yards, 6.7 2 TD
2011: 163 carries, 818 yards, 5.0 avg. 10 TD; 19 receptions, 182 yards, 9.6 1 TD
2012: 143 carries, 662 yards, 4.6 avg. 11 TD; 26 receptions, 173 yards, 14.2 0 TD
Comparison: More powerful but less athletic Matt Forte
Notes:
-Tore ACL in 2011
-Tore other ACL + LCL + another ligament in one of the worst injuries seen in recent memory.
-Active in community service with his church and youth groups(show character).
I don't think Lattimore was as good as people hyped him up before his first knee injury. However, the chance for him to be the next RB in SF behind that OL and power running game is too good to pass up at this portion of your draft. Lattimore will likely be gone by this pick, but I don't think he will ever be healthy enough on a consistent basis again.
17) EJ Manuel QB Florida State (Bills)
6-5 238
2009: 69 of 106 65.1%, 817 yards, 7.71 YPA, 2 TD 6 INT
2010: 65 of 93 69.9%, 861 yards, 9.26 YPA, 4 TD 4 INT
2011: 203 of 311 65.3%, 2666 yards, 8.57 YPA, 18 TD 8 INT
2012: 263 of 387 68.0%, 3392 yards, 8.77 YPA, 23 TD 10 INT
Comparison: Daunte Culpepper
Notes:
Manuel shocked the draft community by being the 1st QB selected. The Bills have a lot of weapons for him: Spiller/Fjax, Chandler, Stevie J/Woods/Graham/Goodwin/Rogers/Kaufman. I don't believe Manuel will be an elite NFL QB, but he could be a solid FF QB due to his running ability. Read option with Spiller and a few weapons on the outside is appealing for the middle of the 2nd round in fantasy drafts.
Tier 4(hopes and prayers)
18) Terrance Williams WR Baylor (Cowboys)
6-2 205
2009: 3 receptions, 61 yards, 20.3 0 TDs
2010: 43 receptions, 484 yards, 11.3 4 TDs
2011: 59 receptions, 957 yards, 16.2 11 TDs
2012: 97 receptions, 1832 yards, 18.9 12 TDs
Comparison: Roy Williams
Notes:
Not a fan of Williams game and don't think he could ever be FF worthy. However, with Miles Austin's injury concerns and Witten on the downside of his career, Dallas has a spot open in the future. Romo is locked up long term and they air it out.
19) Stedman Bailey WR West Virginia (Rams)
5-10 188
2010: 24 receptions, 317 yards, 13.2 4 TDs
2011: 72 receptions, 1279 yards, 17.8 12 TDs
2012: 114 receptions, 1622 yards, 14.2 25 TDs
Comparison: Golden Tate/Steve Smith with less strength
Notes:
The more I watch Bailey, the more I like him. He's dependable, great competitor, great routes, and makes plays. If you want a flyer on a guy that could be a WR2 in his career, take a chance on Bailey. Could have that Derrick Mason/Donald Driver career where people are always trying to replace him, but he continues to produce.
20) Da’Rick Rogers WR Tennessee Tech (Bills)
6-3 205
2010: 11 receptions, 167 yards, 15.1 2 TDs
2011: 67 receptions, 1040 yards, 15.5 9 TDs
2012: 61 receptions, 893 yards, 14.6 10 TD
Comparison: Terrell Owens
Notes:
-Kicked off of University of Tennessee football team and transferred to Tennessee Tech.
-Drug concerns
Rogers is a first round talent that fell due to maturity/off field concerns. At the end of the second round, why not gamble on a guy with huge upside? He tested out very well at the combine and has to beat out Robert Woods for the other starting job in Buffalo.
Here are my pre-combine rankings: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=676867#entry15296264
-If you want analysis on each player, read it there.
Note: My rankings are in the PPR, start 1 QB format. The comparisons aren't who they will become, but who I would compare their game to in the NFL.
Tier One
1) Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee (Vikings)
6-2 205
2010(Hutchinson CC): 52 receptions, 908 yards, 17.5 9 TDs
-Patterson also added over 600 return yards with 3 TDs.
2011(Hutchinson CC): 61 receptions, 924 yards, 15.1 15 TDs
-Patterson also added almost 500 return yards with 3 TDs and almost 400 rushing yards with 6 TDs.
2012: 46 receptions, 778 yards, 16.9 5 TDs
-Patterson also added almost 800 return yards and 300 rushing yards in 2012.
Comparison: Taller Percy Harvin
Patterson is a true, boom or bust prospect. However, this class doesn't have anyone elite and they're all second tier players. Patterson gets the nod due to his unbelievable playmaking ability with the ball in his hands. (If you're interested in that aspect, PM me and i'll link you my article on his elusiveness). While Ponder isn't elite, I don't see Jennings or Rudolph commanding #1 targets beyond 2013.
2) Tavon Austin WR West Virginia (Rams)
5-9 174
2009: 15 receptions, 151 yards, 10.1 1 TD
2010: 58 receptions, 787 yards, 13.6 8 TD
2011: 101 receptions, 1186 yards, 11.7 8 TD
2012: 114 receptions, 1289 yards, 11.3 12 TD
-Over 1,000 career rushing yards and over 2,500 return yards.
Comparison: More explosive Randall Cobb with less strength. Think Jahvid Best like excitement with the football in his hands.
Austin is behind Patterson because of my lack of faith in Sam Bradford(it's worse than Ponder), his size and because the Rams suddenly have a lot of talented weapons: 3 talented RBs that can all catch the football, Cook/Kendricks, Quick/Givens/Austin/Bailey.
3) Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan State (Steelers)
6-2 244
2010: 107 carries, 605 yards, 5.7 YPC, 8 TD; 11 receptions, 97 yards, 8.8 0 TD
2011: 182 carries, 948 yards, 6.3 YPC, 13 TD; 35 receptions, 267 yards, 7.6 0 TD
2012: 382 carries, 1793 yards, 4.7 YPC, 12 TD; 32 receptions, 167 yards, 5.2 1TD
Comparison: Looks like LeGarrette Blount physically but possesses much better agility and hands.
Bell was down on my initial list because I didn't think the NFL valued bigger RBs anymore, apparently Pittsburgh does. Bell has very little competition for carries(Dwyer/Redman) and may even play all 3 downs. Bell has a freakish skillset and could be a monster in FF. Bell also gets a bump up here because I love the Steelers interior OL and think they could be dominant.
Tier 2
4) DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson (Texans)
6-1 200
2010: 51 receptions, 626 yards, 12.3 4 TDs
2011: 72 receptions, 978 yards, 13.6 5 TDs
2012: 82 receptions, 1405 yards, 17.1 18 TDs
Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald/Reggie Wayne(later in his career)
Hopkins landed in a great situation. He can learn from one of the best(AJ) to develop his game, play WR2 right away in 2012, and have many one on one matchups due to AJ/good running game. If you want a safe pick, Hopkins is your guy.
5) Eddie Lacy RB Alabama (Packers)
5-10 220
2010: 56 carries 406 yards 7.3 6 TD, 2 receptions, 18 yards, 9.0 0 TD
2011: 95 carries 674 yards 7.1 7 TD, 11 receptions, 131 yards, 11.9 0 TD
2012: 184 carries 1182 yards 6.4 16 TD, 20 receptions, 172 yards, 8.6 1 TD
Comparison: Poor Man’s Frank Gore
Notes:
-Bothered by turf toe injury for 2 years.
What a fall from grace for Lacy. Riding high after a great last few games of the season. Then a hamstring injury, then no combine, no pro day, late pro day, poor workout numbers/couldn't finish the workout, didn't get drafted until late in round 2, GB drafted Jon Franklin in round 4. I don't think Lacy is a bad FF prospect at all, I just don't think he's as sure of a thing as he was a few months ago. The NFL told us what they thought of him and the Packers hedged their bet by pairing Franklin with him. I see his future as a RBBC with Franklin taking over the 3rd down duties with Lacy having GL duty.
6) Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina (Bengals)
5-10 205
2010: Redshirted after tearing the ACL in his right knee
2011: 239 carries 1253 yards 5.2 13 TD, 45 receptions, 362 yards, 8.0 1 TD
2012: 184 carries 1228 yards 6.7 12 TD, 47 receptions, 490 yards, 10.4 5 TD
-Also has two return TDs, one was very clutch that won a game.
Comparison: Poor Man’s Brian Westbrook
Notes:
-Older brother, Yvenson Bernard, played RB at Oregon State in the mid 2000's.
-Torn ACL in 2010, missed 3 games due to a knee injury in 2012.
I'm not a fan of Gio's game, but he has a clear path to at least 3rd down duties right away. The Shark play may be to acquire BJGE(for the right price) because Gio has been hurt often in college, but only for 2013. Gio isn't special in any area, but he's effective.
7) Keenan Allen WR Cal (Chargers)
6-3 210
2010: 46 receptions, 490 yards, 10.7 5 TD
2011: 98 receptions, 1343 yards, 13.7 6 TD
2012: 61 receptions, 737 yards, 12.1 6 TD
-Also has one passing, two rushing, and one return TD at Cal.
Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald
Notes:
-Turned down a scholarship at Alabama to play FS to play WR at Cal with his half-brother QB Zach Maynard.
-Foot surgery in spring of 2012, MCL tear which ended his 2012 campaign.
Allen has had a similar fall from grace as Eddie Lacy. However, Allen landed in a good situation with little competition: Danario "glass" Alexander, Vincent Brown, Meachem, and an old Gates. Phillip Rivers isn't "who we thought he was" but he can still make a WR productive. It is concerning that teams let Allen fall to round 3, maybe his medicals is a bigger concern than we know.
8) Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame (Bengals)
6-6 251
2010: 27 receptions, 352 yards, 13.0 2 TDs
2011: 63 receptions, 803 yards, 12.7 5 TDs
2012: 50 receptions, 685 yards, 13.7 4 TDs
Comparison: Jason Witten
Notes:
Eifert took a big hit in value when Cinci drafted him. Gresham is a good TE, only 24, under contract for the next 2 years, and the OC has already said Gresham is the starter. Looks like Eifert owners will have to be patient. Lots of good young talent in Cinci: Green/Sanu/Jones/Hamilton/Hawkins/Gresham/Bernard/Eifert. It may be too crowded for him to get a ton of targets to be an elite FF TE.
Tier 3(big drop down)
9) Zac Stacy RB Vanderbilt (Rams)
5-11 216
2009: 107 carries 478 yards 4.5 3 TD, 7 receptions, 72 yards, 10.3 0 TD
2010: 66 carries 331 yards 5.0 3 TD, 9 receptions, 32 yards, 3.6 0 TD
2011: 201 carries 1193 yards 5.9 14 TD, 20 receptions, 106 yards, 5.3 0 TD
2012: 207 carries 1141 yards 5.5 10 TD, 10 receptions 205 yards 20.5 0 TD
-Also has two return TDs, one was very clutch that won a game.
Comparison: Smaller Mark Ingram
Notes:
Stacy is the most underrated player in this draft class. He's tough, smart, patient runner that uses his blockers very well. If he was faster I could easily see him being my #1 RB in this class. No reason why he can't overtake Pead(who I like) and Richardson for the starting job. Don't forget that the Rams traded up to obtain him.
10) Justin Hunter WR Tennessee (Titans)
6-4 200
2010: 16 receptions, 415 yards, 25.9 7 TD
2011: 17 receptions, 314 yards, 18.5 2 TD
2012: 73 receptions, 1083 yards, 14.8 9 TD
Comparison: Julio Jones/Randy Moss at best, flop at worst.
Notes:
-Torn ACL in 2011.
Hunter is very underwhelming to me on film, however he has great potential. In a down rookie class and at pick 10, why not shoot for the stars in hopes that Hunter can regain his explosiveness/game from his freshman season. Hunter looks like a great compliment to Kendall Wright, I have big concerns about Jake Locker making either a FF star in the future.
11) Jonathan Franklin RB UCLA (Packers)
5-10 205
2009: 126 carries, 566 yards, 4.5 YPC, 5 TDs; 6 receptions 57 yards, 9.5 0 TD
2010: 214 carries, 1127 yards, 5.3 YPC, 8 TDs; 10 receptions, 63 yards, 6.3 0 TD
2011: 166 carries, 976 yards, 5.9 YPC, 5 TD; 9 receptions, 74 yards, 8.2 1 TDs
2012: 282 carries, 1734 yards, 6.1 YPC, 13 TDs; 33 receptions, 323 yards,9.8 2 TD
Comparison: Curtis Martin
Notes:
-Assaulted just prior to training camp this year and suffered a concussion as a result.
-Lost weight as career progressed at Wisconsin(lost babyfat).
Outside shot at taking the GB job, but will have 3rd down duties most likely. Lacy hasn't been consistently healthy and Ted Thompson traded up for Franklin, something he rarely does. I think this battle is closer than people think.
12) Montee Ball RB Wisconsin (Broncos)
5-11 212
2009: 98 carries, 391 yards, 4.0 YPC, 4 TDs; 9 receptions 92 yards, 10.2 0 TD
2010: 163 carries, 996 yards, 6.1 YPC, 18 TDs; 16 receptions, 128 yards, 8.0 0 TD
2011: 307 carries, 1,923 yards, 6.3 YPC, 33 TD; 24 receptions, 306 yards, 12.8 6 TDs
2012: 332 carries, 1730 yards, 5.2 YPC, 21 TDs; 9 receptions, 65 yards, 7.2 0 TD
Comparison: Curtis Martin
Notes:
-Assaulted just prior to training camp this year and suffered a concussion as a result.
-Lost weight as career progressed at Wisconsin(lost babyfat).
Shocked Ball went as high as he did. However, he's in a questionable situation in Denver. It's a great landing spot because: Moreno/Hillman/McGahee aren't really talented/athletic RBs(anymore), Denver can support a good FF RB, Peyton Manning utilizes the RB out of the backfield, and a great WR core will keep 2 safety's deep. It's a bad situation because: is Ball anymore talented/athletic than Moreno/Hillman/McGahee, Fox doesn't play rookie RBs, Peyton will only be around 2 more seasons, and Ball is an underwhelming physical specimen.
13) Robert Woods WR USC (Bills)
6-1 190
2010: 65 receptions, 792 yards, 12.2 6 TD
2011: 111 receptions, 1,292, yards, 11.6 15 TD
2012: 73 receptions, 813 yards, 11.1 11 TD
Comparison: Lance Moore
Notes:
-Got demoted to the #2 option when Marqise Lee emerged late in 2011.
Woods landed in a good situation in Buffalo or did he? Stevie Johnson is locked up long term and will be the WR1 for the next few seasons. The Bills have drafted 3 WRs: TJ Graham, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin the last two seasons and signed Da'Rick Rogers/Brandon Kaufman as free agents. Combine that with Kevin Kolb and a rookie QB in EJ Manuel, i'm not too excited. Woods is exactly what the Bills needed, a reliable WR, but can he separate from the other young WRs in Buffalo?
14) Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State (Steelers)
6-0 182
2009: 8 receptions, 89 yards, 11.1 0 TDs
2010: 55 receptions, 675 yards, 12.3 4 TDs
2011: 73 receptions, 986 yards, 13.5 1 TDs
2012: 91 receptions, 1244 yards, 13.7 11 TDs
-Wheaton also has 5 career rushing TDs.
Comparison: Desean Jackson
Notes:
Wheaton is a great Mike Wallace replacement. Wheaton is talented, but so are Brown/Sanders. The amount of targets/his development/chemistry with Big Ben will put a big emphasis on his value. How many pure speed guys have consistent FF value? Many just take the top off the defense.
15) Eugene “Geno” Smith QB West Virginia (Jets)
6-3 215
2009: 32 of 49 65.3%, 309 yards, 6.31 YPA, 1 TD 1 INT
2010: 241 of 372 64.8%, 2763 yards, 7.43 YPA, 24 TD 7 INT
2011: 346 of 526 65.8%, 4385 yards, 8.34 YPA, 31 TD 7 INT
2012: 369 of 518 71.2%, 4205 yards, 8.12 YPA, 42 TD 6 INT
Comparison: Aaron Rodgers
Notes:
Geno tumbled in the draft and didn't land in a great situation. However, he should start sooner rather than later and is a very talented QB. Holmes/Hill are a start, but not a great pair to start an NFL career with. The Jets will seek out some weapons next offseason. Grab Geno in round 2 of your rookie drafts, but don't look for his career to take off until 2014.
16) Marcus Lattimore RB South Carolina (49ers)
6-0 218
2010: 249 carries, 1197 yards, 4.8 avg. 17 TD; 29 receptions, 412 yards, 6.7 2 TD
2011: 163 carries, 818 yards, 5.0 avg. 10 TD; 19 receptions, 182 yards, 9.6 1 TD
2012: 143 carries, 662 yards, 4.6 avg. 11 TD; 26 receptions, 173 yards, 14.2 0 TD
Comparison: More powerful but less athletic Matt Forte
Notes:
-Tore ACL in 2011
-Tore other ACL + LCL + another ligament in one of the worst injuries seen in recent memory.
-Active in community service with his church and youth groups(show character).
I don't think Lattimore was as good as people hyped him up before his first knee injury. However, the chance for him to be the next RB in SF behind that OL and power running game is too good to pass up at this portion of your draft. Lattimore will likely be gone by this pick, but I don't think he will ever be healthy enough on a consistent basis again.
17) EJ Manuel QB Florida State (Bills)
6-5 238
2009: 69 of 106 65.1%, 817 yards, 7.71 YPA, 2 TD 6 INT
2010: 65 of 93 69.9%, 861 yards, 9.26 YPA, 4 TD 4 INT
2011: 203 of 311 65.3%, 2666 yards, 8.57 YPA, 18 TD 8 INT
2012: 263 of 387 68.0%, 3392 yards, 8.77 YPA, 23 TD 10 INT
Comparison: Daunte Culpepper
Notes:
Manuel shocked the draft community by being the 1st QB selected. The Bills have a lot of weapons for him: Spiller/Fjax, Chandler, Stevie J/Woods/Graham/Goodwin/Rogers/Kaufman. I don't believe Manuel will be an elite NFL QB, but he could be a solid FF QB due to his running ability. Read option with Spiller and a few weapons on the outside is appealing for the middle of the 2nd round in fantasy drafts.
Tier 4(hopes and prayers)
18) Terrance Williams WR Baylor (Cowboys)
6-2 205
2009: 3 receptions, 61 yards, 20.3 0 TDs
2010: 43 receptions, 484 yards, 11.3 4 TDs
2011: 59 receptions, 957 yards, 16.2 11 TDs
2012: 97 receptions, 1832 yards, 18.9 12 TDs
Comparison: Roy Williams
Notes:
Not a fan of Williams game and don't think he could ever be FF worthy. However, with Miles Austin's injury concerns and Witten on the downside of his career, Dallas has a spot open in the future. Romo is locked up long term and they air it out.
19) Stedman Bailey WR West Virginia (Rams)
5-10 188
2010: 24 receptions, 317 yards, 13.2 4 TDs
2011: 72 receptions, 1279 yards, 17.8 12 TDs
2012: 114 receptions, 1622 yards, 14.2 25 TDs
Comparison: Golden Tate/Steve Smith with less strength
Notes:
The more I watch Bailey, the more I like him. He's dependable, great competitor, great routes, and makes plays. If you want a flyer on a guy that could be a WR2 in his career, take a chance on Bailey. Could have that Derrick Mason/Donald Driver career where people are always trying to replace him, but he continues to produce.
20) Da’Rick Rogers WR Tennessee Tech (Bills)
6-3 205
2010: 11 receptions, 167 yards, 15.1 2 TDs
2011: 67 receptions, 1040 yards, 15.5 9 TDs
2012: 61 receptions, 893 yards, 14.6 10 TD
Comparison: Terrell Owens
Notes:
-Kicked off of University of Tennessee football team and transferred to Tennessee Tech.
-Drug concerns
Rogers is a first round talent that fell due to maturity/off field concerns. At the end of the second round, why not gamble on a guy with huge upside? He tested out very well at the combine and has to beat out Robert Woods for the other starting job in Buffalo.
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