I guess the question is whether he has reached Sproles/Woodhead status or if he's more like Riddick/Thompson, who will have good games but are tough to trust on a weekly basis.
Given my flex options of Darkwa, Parker and Sanu, I'm starting to think Duke may be my most reliable choice going forward.
Well it has been inconsistent and perhaps more like RIddick/Thompson than Sproles/Woodhead in their best years (RB one type numbers). That said Riddick was pretty consistent in 2015 and Thompson pretty solid this year before he was injured.
For Johnson, he hasn't had as much opportunity as those guys were getting in their best seasons, so its a bit less consistent than that I would say. But Johnson has scored pretty well except for games where the Browns had more difficult match ups, such as the Vikings and Texans games. The Tttans game was somewhat borderline startable also.
What lines up here is that the bad games came against defenses that are better against the run. Also the Vikings game Johnson was concussed, so he missed some opportunities because of that.
The Browns should almost always be in chase situations which forces them to play Johnson more. The dump off passes to Johnson in these garbage situations should have some consistency.
Looking at the Browns remaining schedule, I see mostly neutral match ups for him until week 17 vs the Steelers. Some of these might even be considered good match ups, such as against the Chargers, who I think should be playing better defense than they are.
For me it would be a tough decision to start him over Parker, who I think is capable of some very big games. In most of the games remaining I would likely be more comfortable with him than Darkwa or Sanu though.
These are not easy decisions. I would hesitate to hope for more opportunity for Johnson because of Hue Jackson. If Jackson is fired at some point then maybe things will change and they actually do start using Johnson more.
I agree with you as far as trying to follow the opportunities in making these decisions, and Johnson hasn't been getting enough opportunity to really be confident in starting him, even though he has outperformed those opportunities.
He is more solid in PPR where he is averaging 4.6 receptions a game. In .5 PPR this is only 2.3 points or 38% of a TD instead of 4.6 about 77% of a TD.
I think his next 3 games are good match ups. I would think about benching him against the Ravens and Steelers though.