Drew Brees won't rebound from early-season struggles. I don't expect Brees to re-emerge as the MVP-caliber player we've grown accustomed to seeing for most of his 20-year career. The Saints' quarterback has lost his fastball and I don't believe it's coming back. I know that's not what the Who Dats want to hear, but let me explain: Remember, this is the Hail Mary section of the notebook ...
I'm certainly not dismissing Brees' accomplishments as a Hall of Fame-worthy player, but his regression is easy to see. According to Next Gen Stats, Brees is averaging just 5.0 air yards per attempt after averaging 6.7, 7.1, 6.3 and 7.6 air yards per attempt in the previous four seasons. Those numbers aren't exactly jaw-dropping, as Brees ranked near the bottom of the league (28th or lower) in the category in each of those years, but they're obviously much better than his mark thus far this season.
Part of Brees' putrid air-yard production can be attributed to his willingness to target receivers aligned in the backfield. He has targeted players in the backfield on 30.9 percent of his attempts in 2020, up from the 24.1 percent of his attempts in 2019. The checkdown-heavy approach has enabled him to keep his completion percentage at or above 70 percent for four of the last five seasons, but the dink-and-dunk passes fail to stretch the defense.
While Brees' supporters might argue "small ball" has worked for the Saints, the tactics worked in previous years due to his ability to also complete intermediate passes with a surgeon's precision. He connected on 66.3 percent of his passes at intermediate range (10-19 air yards) while averaging 12.3 yards per attempt and posting a 12:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 138.3 passer rating on those throws in 2019. No. 9 hasn't been nearly as effective this season with a 42.9 percent completion rate, 0:1 TD-to-INT ratio and a 45.2 passer rating on intermediate throws. We could ignore the data and attribute Brees' slow start to Michael Thomas' absence, but the film reveals an aging player who is unable to consistently get the ball over the plate.
If the Saints find a way to roll through the NFC with Brees at quarterback, it will be due to the veteran befuddling opponents with a wicked knuckleball that somehow flutters and floats past defenders instead of the fastball we're used to seeing from him.