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Colts @ Ravens (1 Viewer)

U

(unwelcomed)GUEST

Footballguy
Just heard that the spread for the Indy @ Bmore game was pick em to -1 Ravens. WTF, I'd take the Colts -13.5. Have they seen the Ravens play the past two weeks, do they know how bad the DBs are for the Ravens? Have they seen the Oline try to block? Vegas will get killed on this one, bet huge $$$$ on Indy if you bet. Anyone here see this the other way?

 
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Sagarin Ratings

It has Indy as 29.69 Pure Points

It has Baltimore as 28.48 Pure Points.

Add in a Home Advantage of 1.58 points.

28.48 - 29.69 + 1.58 = Baltimore favored by 0.37 points.

 
rvmblack said:
Its called a trap game, and it looks like your the one who is going to fall for it
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I've watched this Baltimore team since they got here. I've seen them play in person 4 times this year. This team is in huge trouble. Suggs's status is up in the air, the DBs for Baltimore are awful, they lost a dime back with a broken ankle, they've given up more 20+ yds plays than any other team in the league this year. Manning owns this team, I'll take the Colts all day as an educated fan that knows this Ravens team well. The Colts don't give up sacks, Manning eludes pressure well, the Ravens DB can't cover. The Ravens' receivers are small and lack separation and breakaway speed. Heap is injured, did you see the Bmore Oline pushing around around or opening holes against the lowly Cleveland Browns?
 
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djcolts said:
Sagarin Ratings

It has Indy as 29.69 Pure Points

It has Baltimore as 28.48 Pure Points.

Add in a Home Advantage of 1.58 points.

28.48 - 29.69 + 1.58 = Baltimore favored by 0.37 points.
Click to expand...
:lmao: Seriously, Indy and Baltimore are both very, very good teams. Indy may be slightly better, but Baltimore's at home. 1 point is what the line should be.

 
Personally - I think Indy wins this week and loses next week @ Houston - but that is as much gut feeling as anything.

 
djcolts said:
Sagarin Ratings

It has Indy as 29.69 Pure Points

It has Baltimore as 28.48 Pure Points.

Add in a Home Advantage of 1.58 points.

28.48 - 29.69 + 1.58 = Baltimore favored by 0.37 points.
Click to expand...
Gotcha on this and it explains the spread, HOWEVER; based on those pure point rankings Pittsburgh would be home dogs against Baltimore. Having watched these teams play, the Ravens DBs can't cover any of Pitts receivers AND Balt receivers will struggle against their D. Ask anyone who's seen these two teams play and they'll tell you that the Steelers run D matches up well against the Ravens rushing attack. Also based on the pure points, Baltimore would be even against Cincy on the road and favored at home. Cincy beat them soundly twice and weren't even close in the second game, Baltimore was pushed around. I'm telling you, the Colts are very good in areas where the Ravens are not good. The Colts match-up extremely well against a beaten up Baltimore team. The Colts will win this game, no doubt in my mind. You'd be crazy to bet this game with Baltimore favored by one or straight up.
 
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(unwelcomed)GUEST said:
djcolts said:
Sagarin Ratings

It has Indy as 29.69 Pure Points

It has Baltimore as 28.48 Pure Points.

Add in a Home Advantage of 1.58 points.

28.48 - 29.69 + 1.58 = Baltimore favored by 0.37 points.
Click to expand...
Gotcha on this and it explains the spread, HOWEVER; based on those pure point rankings Pittsburgh would be home dogs against Baltimore. Having watched these teams play, the Ravens DBs can't cover any of Pitts receivers AND Balt receivers will struggle against their D. Ask anyone who's seen these two teams play and they'll tell you that the Steelers run D matches up well against the Ravens rushing attack. Also based on the pure points, Baltimore would be even against Cincy on the road and favored at home. Cincy beat them soundly twice and weren't even close in the second game, Baltimore was pushed around. I'm telling you, the Colts are very good in areas where the Ravens are not good. The Colts match-up extremely well against a beaten up Baltimore team. The Colts will win this game, no doubt in my mind. You'd be crazy to bet this game with Baltimore favored by one or straight up.
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This is why it's usually best to avoid games involving your team. Just like homers think their team is better than it is when they're winning, they're better than you think when they're disappointing you. To most neutral observers, these two teams have been on the opposite ends of variance this year - the Ravens in the NE and 1st Cincy games, Indy in the Miami, Houston & NE games.

 
Bills_Fan11 said:
(unwelcomed)GUEST said:
djcolts said:
Sagarin Ratings

It has Indy as 29.69 Pure Points

It has Baltimore as 28.48 Pure Points.

Add in a Home Advantage of 1.58 points.

28.48 - 29.69 + 1.58 = Baltimore favored by 0.37 points.
Click to expand...
Gotcha on this and it explains the spread, HOWEVER; based on those pure point rankings Pittsburgh would be home dogs against Baltimore. Having watched these teams play, the Ravens DBs can't cover any of Pitts receivers AND Balt receivers will struggle against their D. Ask anyone who's seen these two teams play and they'll tell you that the Steelers run D matches up well against the Ravens rushing attack. Also based on the pure points, Baltimore would be even against Cincy on the road and favored at home. Cincy beat them soundly twice and weren't even close in the second game, Baltimore was pushed around. I'm telling you, the Colts are very good in areas where the Ravens are not good. The Colts match-up extremely well against a beaten up Baltimore team. The Colts will win this game, no doubt in my mind. You'd be crazy to bet this game with Baltimore favored by one or straight up.
Click to expand...
This is why it's usually best to avoid games involving your team. Just like homers think their team is better than it is when they're winning, they're better than you think when they're disappointing you. To most neutral observers, these two teams have been on the opposite ends of variance this year - the Ravens in the NE and 1st Cincy games, Indy in the Miami, Houston & NE games.
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I'm a Dolphins fan personally, but the handicapper in me really sees no reason not to take IND -0... :lmao:
 
Suggs likely out, Ngata questionable at best, Heap likely out. The Ravens haven't beaten the Colts since 2001. The Ravens have given up more 20+ yard plays than any other team in the NFL. The Ravens defensive backfield is horrendous. The Oline has struggled mightily protecting Flacco and in run blocking in November. LJ Smith is a downgrade from Heap in blocking. If I was in position to bet a game, this would be the game that I bet. I can can assure you, by kick-off the line will swing 4pts minimum toward the Colts. We'll know by Sunday, I say bet the house on Indy in this one.

 
(unwelcomed)GUEST said:
Just heard that the spread for the Indy @ Bmore game was pick em to -1 Ravens. WTF, I'd take the Colts -13.5. Have they seen the Ravens play the past two weeks, do they know how bad the DBs are for the Ravens? Have they seen the Oline try to block? Vegas will get killed on this one, bet huge $$$$ on Indy if you bet. Anyone here see this the other way?
Click to expand...
You got a deal. I'll take the Ravens plus the 13.5 you're giving. You name the dollar amount and we'll figure out how to secure the bet.
 
Bills_Fan11 said:
This is why it's usually best to avoid games involving your team. Just like homers think their team is better than it is when they're winning, they're better than you think when they're disappointing you.

To most neutral observers, these two teams have been on the opposite ends of variance this year - the Ravens in the NE and 1st Cincy games, Indy in the Miami, Houston & NE games.
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Maybe. I know in my case I tend to be harder on the teams I root for than I probably should. The Ravens probably have the least amount of regular posters here of any NFL team, but those that are here are pretty level-headed & call 'em as they seem 'em. I agree with UG that this is a baaaaaaad matchup for the Birds. They don't play well against Manning when they're at peak-level, and they certainly haven't played at a level like that this year (maybe Denver; Cleveland doesn't count). On top of that, if both Suggs & Ngata are slowed or out Peyton will have all day to pick apart a weak secondary. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have been sluggish out of the gate all year. They preached "fast start" all week & threw up a goose-egg against the Browns in the 1st half.I'm not saying they can't win. But I see too many red flags to bet them straight up or, God forbid, giving points.

 
Flacco is really struggling right now. He looked terrible last night and last week and he's had three sub-par games in a row. I think the only chance the Ravens have is if Flacco rediscovers the magic he had early in the season and right now he doesn't look anything like the same QB. Given that, I don't see how he can hope to keep up with Manning.

I'll take Indy by 10.

 
Not since Nov. 8, 2007, have I been as confident in a pick.

That's when Jeff Pasquino called Cincy over Baltimore @ baltimore as his Stone Cold Lock of the Year. That was easy money.

I will be interested to see what he thinks about this game, because from where I sit in Baltimore, this looks like at least a 14-point Indy win. The Ravens are horrible against big-time QBs this year. Look what Brady, Favre and Palmer have done to them. Even though they somehow beat SD, Rivers had 400+ yards against them. Other than Rivers, the only QBs they've beaten this year have been Orton, Quinn and Cassel.

Now, their best (only?) pass rusher is out. Add to that the fact that Manning has won 6 straight vs. the Ravens, often in dominating fashion (like 31-3 last year and 44-20 the year before).

Here are some numbers for you: 0, 0, 6, 3, 0. Those are the points the Ravens' offense has scored in the first halves of its last five games. How far behind do you think the Ravens will be if they go crazy and even score 1 TD in the first half this week? I'll say at least 10.

Someone said in this thread that Baltimore fans are too close to this game to be able to evaluate it objectively. I say that we are probably the only people in the country that have been able to stomach watching the Ravens play excruciatingly mediocre football for each of their last 5 games (the kind of football that had everyone else in America turning off their TVs last night) and fully appreciate how poorly they match up vs. the Colts.

 
Suggs' agent blasts Quinn for "potential season-ending injury"

BEREA, Ohio -- The agent for Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs lashed out at Browns quarterback Brady Quinn Tuesday for "potentially putting Terrell out for the year.''

Agent Gary Wichard said he's not sure if Suggs will miss the rest of the season with his knee injury suffered after Quinn dove at his legs, "but that's ridiculous, because it was premeditated for him to do that. It's not like he got pushed into Terrell's legs. That was about as nasty as it gets.''
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This was posted less than an hour ago.
 
Chase Stuart said:
djcolts said:
Sagarin Ratings

It has Indy as 29.69 Pure Points

It has Baltimore as 28.48 Pure Points.

Add in a Home Advantage of 1.58 points.

28.48 - 29.69 + 1.58 = Baltimore favored by 0.37 points.
Click to expand...
:confused: Seriously, Indy and Baltimore are both very, very good teams. Indy may be slightly better, but Baltimore's at home. 1 point is what the line should be.
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I disagree. Baltimore has shown no ability to beat a quality team. On top of that, they are have a short week of preparation after playing a fairlybad game in beating Cleveland.

 
packersfan said:
Flacco is really struggling right now. He looked terrible last night and last week and he's had three sub-par games in a row. I think the only chance the Ravens have is if Flacco rediscovers the magic he had early in the season and right now he doesn't look anything like the same QB. Given that, I don't see how he can hope to keep up with Manning.I'll take Indy by 10.
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Flacco looked like he was playing sick last night. Totally listless, slow and looked basically uninterested. I was really surprised Baltimore offense looked so bad.
 
I would've never thought Tampa would beat Green Bay. This is a much closer game talentwise, and Indy has big issues in their secondary.

This game won't be won by Flacco, though. Baltimore needs to run the ball and Rice needs a monster game. I think he'll have it and Baltimore gets the upset.

Indy had to dig out of a hole to beat NE, and they've been living on the edge all year, against mediocre teams.

Note, this prediction is null and void if Baltimore gives Peyton the ball with 2 minutes, and they are up by less than 8...

 
(unwelcomed)GUEST said:
Suggs likely out, Ngata questionable at best, Heap likely out. The Ravens haven't beaten the Colts since 2001. The Ravens have given up more 20+ yard plays than any other team in the NFL. The Ravens defensive backfield is horrendous. The Oline has struggled mightily protecting Flacco and in run blocking in November. LJ Smith is a downgrade from Heap in blocking. If I was in position to bet a game, this would be the game that I bet. I can can assure you, by kick-off the line will swing 4pts minimum toward the Colts. We'll know by Sunday, I say bet the house on Indy in this one.
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You are clueless, betting-wise, and the above proves it. And not just the bolded.
 
Admitted Colts homer here -

I just bet on the Colts (even). After watching all the Colts games and several of the Ravens games this year along with every matchup between the two this decade, I am feeling pretty good about my bet.

 
Playing the Colts in a teaser. Thanks for the extra points.

Want no part of Baltimore, and now they released their K.

 
ChargersOH said:
I would've never thought Tampa would beat Green Bay. This is a much closer game talentwise, and Indy has big issues in their secondary.

This game won't be won by Flacco, though. Baltimore needs to run the ball and Rice needs a monster game. I think he'll have it and Baltimore gets the upset.

Indy had to dig out of a hole to beat NE, and they've been living on the edge all year, against mediocre teams.

Note, this prediction is null and void if Baltimore gives Peyton the ball with 2 minutes, and they are up by less than 8...
Click to expand...
Just to give you another point of view on the "big issues in the Colts secondary" - this is what an astute Colts fan saw after re-watching the Pats game:
New England did not 'take advantage' of an "injury depleted secondary" for the Colts. There were no corners getting beat by Randy Moss during the 24 point outburst. That's because there were no corners covering Moss. Indy played a straight zone on him, and it made zero sense. At least through the early part of the game, whenever Moss had a corner actually playing him, he was contained. Powers and Lacey both made plays on him. His big catches (and there were three huge ones), all came on weak zone coverage. The Indy secondary is fine. Polian said last night that he felt the improvement in the second half was '80% scheme and 20% performance'. It's true. There was no one getting toasted for huge plays. It's just not a good idea to cover Randy Moss with a linebacker and safety. Remember that for the rematch.
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Edit to clean up spelling.
 
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BRONG said:
(unwelcomed)GUEST said:
Suggs likely out, Ngata questionable at best, Heap likely out. The Ravens haven't beaten the Colts since 2001. The Ravens have given up more 20+ yard plays than any other team in the NFL. The Ravens defensive backfield is horrendous. The Oline has struggled mightily protecting Flacco and in run blocking in November. LJ Smith is a downgrade from Heap in blocking. If I was in position to bet a game, this would be the game that I bet. I can can assure you, by kick-off the line will swing 4pts minimum toward the Colts. We'll know by Sunday, I say bet the house on Indy in this one.
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You are clueless, betting-wise, and the above proves it. And not just the bolded.
Click to expand...
Coud you expand a little on this? I agree that the line won't change 4 points, but all of his other points actually seemed pretty good to me.
 
The_Man said:
BRONG said:
(unwelcomed)GUEST said:
Suggs likely out, Ngata questionable at best, Heap likely out. The Ravens haven't beaten the Colts since 2001. The Ravens have given up more 20+ yard plays than any other team in the NFL. The Ravens defensive backfield is horrendous. The Oline has struggled mightily protecting Flacco and in run blocking in November. LJ Smith is a downgrade from Heap in blocking. If I was in position to bet a game, this would be the game that I bet. I can can assure you, by kick-off the line will swing 4pts minimum toward the Colts. We'll know by Sunday, I say bet the house on Indy in this one.
Click to expand...
You are clueless, betting-wise, and the above proves it. And not just the bolded.
Click to expand...
Coud you expand a little on this? I agree that the line won't change 4 points, but all of his other points actually seemed pretty good to me.
Click to expand...
That kind of info, while good and certainly pertinent, is not lost on those making the line.
 
(unwelcomed)GUEST said:
djcolts said:
Sagarin Ratings

It has Indy as 29.69 Pure Points

It has Baltimore as 28.48 Pure Points.

Add in a Home Advantage of 1.58 points.

28.48 - 29.69 + 1.58 = Baltimore favored by 0.37 points.
Click to expand...
Gotcha on this and it explains the spread, HOWEVER; based on those pure point rankings Pittsburgh would be home dogs against Baltimore. Having watched these teams play, the Ravens DBs can't cover any of Pitts receivers AND Balt receivers will struggle against their D. Ask anyone who's seen these two teams play and they'll tell you that the Steelers run D matches up well against the Ravens rushing attack. Also based on the pure points, Baltimore would be even against Cincy on the road and favored at home. Cincy beat them soundly twice and weren't even close in the second game, Baltimore was pushed around. I'm telling you, the Colts are very good in areas where the Ravens are not good. The Colts match-up extremely well against a beaten up Baltimore team. The Colts will win this game, no doubt in my mind. You'd be crazy to bet this game with Baltimore favored by one or straight up.
Click to expand...
I don't think you understand how to use the ratings.
 
ChargersOH said:
This game won't be won by Flacco, though.
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I disagree. I think the Ravens need Flacco to play well (and much better than he's been the past 3 weeks) to have any chance. Even if Rice goes off, the Ravens need to score a lot of points to keep up with Manning. That's pretty much the deal for every team that plays the Colts. Eventually, the QB is going to have to make plays through the air and get the ball into the end zone. Flacco has been poor at that the past three games. He can't afford to be poor at that against the Colts because Manning will make him pay.
 
packersfan said:
ChargersOH said:
This game won't be won by Flacco, though.
Click to expand...
I disagree. I think the Ravens need Flacco to play well (and much better than he's been the past 3 weeks) to have any chance. Even if Rice goes off, the Ravens need to score a lot of points to keep up with Manning. That's pretty much the deal for every team that plays the Colts. Eventually, the QB is going to have to make plays through the air and get the ball into the end zone. Flacco has been poor at that the past three games. He can't afford to be poor at that against the Colts because Manning will make him pay.
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I agree Flacco will have to do better and make some throws for them to win. However, I think in a shootout, the Colts come out on top. Baltimore's best option is to pound the rock, and to control the clock, IMHO. If Rice and McGahee can control the game and keep the Colts possessions down, then the Ravens can win this game.
 
Let's keep in mind that the Colts didn't blow out the Patriots. They barely managed to eek out a 1-point win at home in the final 13 seconds. Now send them on the road to the Ravens. I think the line is fair.

For comparison, if the Colts were to go to New England and play the Patriots this week, what would the line be?

 
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kaa said:
Let's keep in mind that the Colts didn't blow out the Patriots. They barely managed to eek out a 1-point win at home in the final 13 seconds. Now send them on the road to the Ravens. I think the line is fair.For comparison, if the Colts were to go to New England and play the Patriots this week, what would the line be?
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I agree that New England would be favored. The difference is that Baltimore is no New England (not even close). :)
 
Normally I think the Colts would win easily. However, with them coming off a big win, and the Ravens coming off a pretty poor performance, and we could see a Ravens win. I still think the Colts win by 3 or 4, though.

 
If Flacco and his OL had trouble with the Cleveland pass rush (which they did), wait until they see Freeney and Mathis.

 
Baltimore O-line should manhandle Indy in the run game. This game is too close to call. Gun to my head I go with Baltimore because this line reminds me of last year's 1st round playoff game between Indy and SD where it was a PK and the Colts had won 9 straight and Peyton and blah blah blah they lost.

 
PahtyTom said:
Gun to my head I go with Baltimore because this line reminds me of last year's 1st round playoff game between Indy and SD where it was a PK and the Colts had won 9 straight and Peyton and blah blah blah they lost.
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:lmao:
 
PahtyTom said:
Baltimore O-line should manhandle Indy in the run game. This game is too close to call. Gun to my head I go with Baltimore because this line reminds me of last year's 1st round playoff game between Indy and SD where it was a PK and the Colts had won 9 straight and Peyton and blah blah blah they lost.
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Dungy teams choke a lot. Dungy isn't coaching the Colts anymore.
 
I share the concerns of my fellow Baltimorons. Things seemed stacked against the Ratbirds. Peyton has handled better Ravens defenses than this one and the fast Colts defense has also generally had its way in this matchup. Ravens are beat up defensively and out of kilter offensively.

Still, it's the NFL where strange things happen. Maybe the Colts have a letdown after a huge win over an archrival and maybe the Ravens play one of those out-of-their-minds games where they can beat anyone. In the run for the playoffs, they don't have much margin for error and that incentive could be key.

 
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