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Can't underrate that youth though. Historically, older prospects (which Daniels, Nix, Penix, and Rattler all are) tend to have worse careers than younger prospects which Maye and McCarthy are.
Things have changed massively since my post. Now at least 4-5 teams have been rumored to go after him after #15, plus a lot of noise about Seattle.
I’d be surprised if he falls past the Vikings and Broncos.
Only takes one team to prove me wrong but I still think most of those teams are looking at him in round 2. Vikings only one that does not apply to, as they might be forced to pivot if they can't move up, though I think they'll take Nix if they do.
I could see the Broncos passing for sure. He's got some of the same issues Russ does. Raiders make a ton of sense.
I also think the Vikings would prefer Nix to Penix.
While I think Nix and Penix are 2nd round caliber guys, QB desperation is as strong as ever, and I'd be SHOCKED if either made it to round 2, and kind of surprised if both weren't gone before Seattle picks.
If they have a second round grade on these guy’s then it means they don’t love them. They may like them enough to take a swing in the second. If they aren’t there are they really missing out? I think Caleb Williams is the lone QB in this draft who i’d feel very confident in drafting. The rest are a leap of faith. They all have talent but also big time question marks. If my Broncos are on the clock at 12 and the choice at QB is Penix or Nix I hope they pass.
I think it really depends on NFL draft capital. If he goes 2nd round NFL draft he likely falls to late 1st or very early 2nd. If he goes in the 1st round of the NFL draft I could see him go in that range you mention in SF.
I think the team and fit (O-line, scheme, coordinators/coaches, offensive weapons etc.) will be key for a lot of these QBs outside of Caleb.
If my Broncos are on the clock at 12 I'm trusting Sean Payton's judgment. No one has done more homework on these guys than him.
There's a part of me that thinks Denver should just sign a guy like Tannehill and let him and Stidham compete and worry about long-term QB next year. Payton has basically infinite job security, and they have a lot of holes. Why not take the best CB, or a top OL, or trade down?
I wouldn't quibble with this approach either. If Penix or Nix have too many warts to bet the farm on then grab a franchise LT to replace Bolles or trade down (personally not a fan of CB at 12). Denver's offseason moves to date have already made it clear that OL talent and depth is a priority.
Trading down in this draft to later first and picking up an extra pick(s) would be huge for any team with needs. Hoping my Fins do this. DEN could still take a QB later first and pick up extra capital.
I would not even worry about, they are not going to pick either of them that high.
Lol. Don't tell me. Because Benjamin Allbright says so.
He's a great source but he's not the only one but if you are a Broncos fan and don't pay him any attention I don't know what to tell you that won't sound snarky so I'll leave it at that.
Said in jest. Peace
I knew that mane. But at the same time I don’t think you put the stock in his reporting I do and it baffles me since you are the Broncos fan. That’s all I’m saying. And fwiw don’t even really like the oddball, or agree with on everything but he’s got some really credible info especially on the Broncos.
If the Broncos could trade down and get a round two pick which they don’t have that would be huge. If Brock Bowers is there at 12 I hope they take him and deal with QB later. I wouldn’t mind rolling the dice with a Spencer Rattler, Jordan Travis or Joe Milton. They will be able to add a vet after teams release QB’s after the draft. Heck I don’t even hate tanking for “2” Shedeur Sanders.
Actually I do respect Allbright's Broncos-related reporting. Just a little too heavy on the bluster and claims of inside info, and too light on the reasoning for my personal taste. All good.
He said Nix's chart looked better, which is a great reminder that one data set is just one data set.
There is so much that goes into whether a QB is good in the NFL that a single chart or data set can't fully explain. I really appreciate guys like Matt Waldman who have been doing film review for a long time and have a baseline that is consistent for all QBs they review. Guys like that may not always be right but you can read through their report on to how they got to that position on a certain player. He also explains what type of system a player may excel in etc.
According to that chart these are 2024 throws.
This guy does not like Penix at all and just keeps throwing out shade. There are other scouts/analysts who say the opposite on many of these.
Is the data wrong though? What's he charting? @Biabreakable says that these were "2024 throws," which I didn't understand. Seems to me he charted everything from all these guys for the previous season.
I guess the question is, do you believe what he says and what he "sees". There are other people who chart and scout Penix who have said opposite things than what is out here.
I'm sure he meant 2023.
Agree. Major happy feet and looked incredibly off balance to me when things weren't perfect. I think he's a huge bust.
A lot is going to come down to how evaluators see his long term prospects regarding his past injuries. I think there are enough question marks about his game to make him a hard pass by many teams. I wouldn’t be shocked if he fell to the third or fourth round. If teams aren’t comfortable taking him n the first are they going to give up a valuable second or early third for him? Maybe! I agree he will be polarizing. He could easily end up being the guy. I think this could be a situation where whether he succeeds or fails people will be saying “What were we thinking?”.
There are several QB’s in this draft who didn’t do things or weren’t asked to do thing. The question will be were they incapable or was there just not the need for this skill set? Teams are going to have to take a tremendous leap of faith on some of these guy’s. The only can’t miss guy in this draft is Caleb. I would not make a massive move up for any of these other guy’s except maybe Jayden Daniels and this would be terrifying. Maye and McCarthy at least have youth on their side.
It says on the chart that it is 2024 which I guess refers to the 2023 season. Maybe this means something else?
The Maye/Penix stuff here from Klassen is funny.
Yeah. He seems to be trying too hard. His Maye love is in direct conflict with his Penix hate. I just listened to the Maye podcast and despite some poor analytics, he just loves Maye. He's tall, he's big, his fast, he has a cannon. He's better than Caleb. I dunno. I respect the time put in nd the charting metrics, but he seems inconsistent applying his own methodology with exaggerated favorites and least favortes.
@Biabreakable all your questions are addressed in the referenced podcast. I confess my opinion of Penix is all over the place. I went from thinking he benefited too much from his surrounding talent to thinking I underrated him and back again.
The thing that lowered my thinking was the careful charting of his deep balls that my lazy eyes just liked seeing all the completions. Odunze and Polk are very advanced with contested catches. Odunze and McMillan are very advanced tracking slightly poor throws. They went a long way to padding Penix's stats.
Right.The Maye/Penix stuff here from Klassen is funny.
Yeah. He seems to be trying too hard. His Maye love is in direct conflict with his Penix hate. I just listened to the Maye podcast and despite some poor analytics, he just loves Maye. He's tall, he's big, his fast, he has a cannon. He's better than Caleb. I dunno. I respect the time put in nd the charting metrics, but he seems inconsistent applying his own methodology with exaggerated favorites and least favortes.
@Biabreakable all your questions are addressed in the referenced podcast. I confess my opinion of Penix is all over the place. I went from thinking he benefited too much from his surrounding talent to thinking I underrated him and back again.
The thing that lowered my thinking was the careful charting of his deep balls that my lazy eyes just liked seeing all the completions. Odunze and Polk are very advanced with contested catches. Odunze and McMillan are very advanced tracking slightly poor throws. They went a long way to padding Penix's stats.
Maye's 2022 was better when he had receivers like Downs. But Maye gets the credit here. Maye takes a dip in 2023 as Tez Walker is out for the first half of the season but Maye gets a pass.
Penix has good receivers but its the receivers that make him look good. No credit to Penix - guy is trash.
I'm going to keep putting together information on QBs and will take in all the good and bad stuff but I have no skin in the game until my pick comes up and I have to make a decision if the value is right and if it makes sense.
I'll finish with this, a guy like Matt Waldman (check out his scouting report) is lower on Maye and higher on Penix than consensus. He's worth the read for sure but a lot of it is opposite of what Klassen has charted and looked at. I lean towards Waldman myself who explains everything very well. Both Maye and Penix have their own things they need to work on but it goes back to scheme, fit, coaching etc on if they will be successful. What if Maye goes to a team with zero weapons like NE? And NE doesn't draft any WRs? Is it Mayes fault he has nothing to work with and fails?
That is a lot of rambling for today...
