1 year rentals to have your boy sit and learn for a season.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
QB Michael Penix Jr., ATL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
I'll truly be extremely surprised if he's not available for the Giants pick in round 2. Would bet heavily on it.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
NFL Draft 2024: Here's why QB Michael Penix Jr.'s stock has reportedly climbed
Penix's intangibles might be better than his physical gifts
www.cbssports.com
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Lol. I like Penix, but I'm just curious if Chase Daniel thought Penix was a "magician" putting on a performance for the ages when he finally faced a real defense against Michigan.
Note: Not a directed at you personally, Faust.
Exactly. He looked like garbage. Was not impressed.
Michigan played a high shell and dared Penix to throw short and mid. There is a big concern about this part of his game. I heard one analyst say it’s because of the angle how he throws that makes it not conducive for these types of throws. If this is truly a concern he will be off the board for the Broncos. Payton just got rid of a guy who couldn’t make these throws.
Penix has the best arm in this draft class in my opinion, but that's really the only thing about his game I like. He's got a really long release, poor mechanics, and mediocre accuracy.
I don't know if its the angle of how he throws that makes him struggle with shorter throws (it could be, that's for someone with a better scouting eye than me) but I think it could also be his slower release makes it easier for defenders to get a jump on throws in traffic. I always felt that was a big part of Jameis Winston's problem too. Daunte Culpepper had that issue too, once he lost Moss and defenses didn't just leave the short stuff open.
Personally, I've got Penix as QB6 in this draft, and while that doesn't mean I don't think he can be an NFL starter, as I like this class a lot, I think its a tougher needle for him to thread. I think he needs to probably sit for a year and work on mechanics. I worry that if he has to start as a rookie, its not gonna be pretty. Ideally someone like say, New Orleans would end up with him, where they can sit him behind Carr for a year, and he'll have at least 1 really good deep WR in Olave to grow with.
When I first saw Penix I though this guy would easily be a top 3 draft pick. Unfortunately, he has just a few too many things going against him. His age, past injuries, an unwillingness and/or inability to make short to midrange throws. He’s not good rolling to his right. A longer passing motion. He tested well athletically at his pro day. This was without the knee brace and flap jacket. I don’t think teams will be able to take advantage of his athleticism. It’s not easy to slide in a brace.
He can sling it though. He very accurate. He’s able to create high leverage situations for his receivers like no other QB. He had the production.
I think he’ll be an ok pro. I don’t think he’ll have a long career.
He can sling it though. He very accurate. He’s able to create high leverage situations for his receivers like no other QB. He had the production.
I think he’ll be an ok pro. I don’t think he’ll have a long career.
QB7 for me, but I think he's drafted as QB6.
He does some things really well and as you said might have the best arm in the class, throws as good of a deep ball as any QB to come out in the last few years. Even if he does not work the middle of the field or throw short I'll still say if you give him time in the pocket he'll rip you apart. I kind of comped him to Goff for some of these reasons (not the throwing over the middle) but I think Daniel Jeremiah had a better comp, which was Sam Bradford. None of those bad and if he can give you that for 4-5 years on a rookie deal it's a win.
The negatives are just so huge for what teams want in a QB today in the NFL. Does not work middle of the field, horrible under pressure-in part likely due to not having easier throws in his bag and likely some very shaky medicals by various team doctors-to point of likely not being on some teams boards. It's just to much and why I still feel strongly he's a second round guy.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Regarding Penix I read a scouting
report this week that says that he can not throw on run. It said that he has to come to a stop before throwing. I thought that was a WTF statement.
So he’s so inaccurate that he has to come to a standstill. Maybe that’s a backfill way of explaining why he has so few rushing yards.
If I can find that scouting report again I’ll post it.
www.fantasypoints.com
report this week that says that he can not throw on run. It said that he has to come to a stop before throwing. I thought that was a WTF statement.
So he’s so inaccurate that he has to come to a standstill. Maybe that’s a backfill way of explaining why he has so few rushing yards.
If I can find that scouting report again I’ll post it.
2024 NFL Draft Prospect Guide
The FREE 2024 NFL Draft prospect guide is here! Brett Whitefield breaks down hundreds of top collegiate prospects with scouting reports, evaluations & much more!
www.fantasypoints.com
Last edited:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Michael Penix Jr. College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
Check out Michael Penix Jr.'s College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com
www.sports-reference.com
-And yet he completed over 65% of his passes the last 2 seasons...ARich was like under 55%, 52% perhaps? And you think Penix can't be accurate?
It's not just you but others that are also in this link. All good, just FTR, Penix completes a lot of throws
And since he can't toss a short ball according to all of you, he must be deadly down the field...
4,600+ pass yds and 31 TDs in '22
4,900+ pass yds and 36 TDs in '23
Took a school/team not usually considered a player to make the CFP and managed to get them to the Championship round, and apparently played NO ONE until Michigan
That's an incredibly short sighted Bio on this guy but again Trav, not solely directed at you.
Last edited:
I certainly wouldn't use Anthony Richardson as an example of an accurate QB. That was his biggest knock. He's got a bigger arm, FAR more mobility, and overall better build than Penix, in addition to being 2 years younger despite coming out earlier. Having said that, I think most thought he was a reach last year.Michael Penix Jr. College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
Check out Michael Penix Jr.'s College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com
-And yet he completed over 65% of his passes the last 2 seasons...ARich was like under 55%, 52% perhaps? And you think Penix can't be accurate?
It's not just you but others that are also in this link. All good, just FTR, Penix completes a lot of throws
And since he can't toss a short ball according to all of you, he must be deadly down the field...
4,600+ pass yds and 31 TDs in '22
4,900+ pass yds and 36 TDs in '23
Took a school/team not usually considered a player to make the CFP and managed to get them to the Championship round, and apparently played NO ONE until Michigan
That's a n incredibly short sighted Bio on this guy but again Trav, not solely directed at you.
I will say Kalen DeBoer deserves a lot of credit (the most?) for Washington's success. He's got a 37-9 career record and 2 of those years were without Penix. On the other hand, Penix played 4 years without DeBoer, and mostly looked just fine. Penix was surrounded by 3 WRs who will go in the top-100, including one who could go top-6, and a LT who could go anywhere from 10-20. It was the best supporting cast in college football. I will agree with the take that he played nobody until Michigan is very flawed, but he also had bad games besides the Michigan game, including laying a huge egg against a terrible Arizona State team. He also played excellent against a good Texas team.
His counting stats look great, no disagreement there, but he also played in the pass heaviest offense in college football, so I think yards and TDs are somewhat misleading. He had 85 more attempts (essentially 2-3 games worth) than any other QB in the draft. His efficiency was the 2nd lowest of the top-6 guys, better than only Maye (and Maye's top WR would have struggled to get on the field at Washington) I like his aggressiveness in pushing the ball downfield, and his arm talent, but that's not gonna come anywhere near as easy or as often in the NFL, especially if he doesn't land on a loaded offense. I don't think he's as accurate as his competition percentage suggests and his mechanics need a lot of work.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
He lost to one of the best college team and defenses in ages. As did everyone else... does that mean every QB sucks?
Did Penix not play against Texas, Oregon, Or State, Utah and USC? None of them have good defenses?
4900yds. 65% accuracy. 11INTs. 157.1 rating this season... Yup... inaccurate and QB7
Chaos34
Footballguy
Insomnia night. Had nothing better to do than watch Penix throw for a couple hours on one monitor with a movie on another. To your question re: defenses; USC's was pathetic, Utah was great in 22 and not so much in 23, the others were all competitive but nothing special.
It's nitpicking season. Senseless, likely meaningless nits are being picked. With failure rates so high, I get it, but Penix is worth the risk for whoever gets him.
My amateur observations. His releases are fine. They're not slow, in fact some are very fast. Mechanically he's fine, and considering the accuracy and zip, his mechanics are very good and nothing worth trying to change. To be more detailed, with short and intermediate throws he has a snappy very quick sidearm delivery when needed that's fast and accurate and pops of his hand impressively. With other short and intermediate throws he has a laser that comes right from his ear and over the top, perfect mechanics, accurate, and as fast a release as you could want. So analysts must be nitpicking his ridiculously accurate deep throw mechanics. He doesn't carry it high, starts from his ribs, brings it up and slings it a little 3/4 arm. On the hundred+ throws I watched this is his primary delivery. I wouldn't call it slow. I wouldn't dare change it.
As for potential nits to pick, throwing on the run wasn't one of them. To his strong side he made very good throws. To his weak side, like most qbs he needed to set his feet somehow, did so and made nice throws. He doesn't need to stop. He adjusts just like many NFL qbs. He ain't Mahomes. He ain't Caleb. Few are. His running was both good and smart. He knows when to protect himself. They even used some designed QB runs and he made first downs and touchdowns with his feet. He stays on schedule and there isn't much to observe regarding progressions. Maybe this will be an issue. This is a solid prospect and this dive into film moved him up in my thinking.
I'll re-watch the championship game soon.
Other observations. Whew, those three receivers are all very good. Back in February, I was dinging Penix because of the talent he had. This changed that, but that talent all moved up in my thinking too. McMillan and Polk are being underrated. I have been underrating Odunze. I moved Thomas ahead of him. Dumb. He belongs right there with Nabers and Marv. Dillon Johnson is a nice RB prospect for some team. He's a complete package. Those tackles are going to start in the nfl for a long time with good health. Rosengarten will be a steal, I think. Ryan Grubbs offense is fantastic. Seattle is going to love him if they give him a solid OL.
Last edited:
Stoneworker
Footballguy
So then you agree with Chase Daniel? That if someone doesn't think Penix is Top 3 then "they don't know ball?"
I cherry picked the Michigan game in direct response and counterbalance to the cherry picking of the Texas game in the quote. No more, no less.
(HULK)
(Smash)
I had him 4th and JJ 5th and it seems like general consensus says I'm way wrong, so I've been questioning myself a bunch.
Maybe McCarthy has a higher ceiling, but Penix is ready to play in the league at a decent level right now IMO. Not sure he has the stuff to end up being a top 10 QB, but 11-20 is definitely possible. If he starts next year, he won't be a bottom 5 starter IMO. High floor and low ceiling is the take I guess.
Todem
Footballguy
I can easily make a case for the Rams, Dolphins and Cowboys taking him.
Big Nate
Footballguy
I've been trying to stay grounded (realistic) with him but somehow, some way I need to leave my rookie drafts with him. But I also don't want to reach. Where would you feel comfortable taking him in rookie drafts? Obviously draft capital and landing spot will make a difference and shift things but right now not knowing where he lands what would you say?
A few other scouts and players I have listened to really like this guy. I hope his "buzz" stays low to get him at a decent price. I just don't know where that is right now in rookie drafts.
Big Nate
Footballguy
I don't see Pitt spending an early enough pick on him. They have Wilson and Fields - they have more needs now like a WR.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Careful with the "general consensus". there is a lot of noise from some that is just louder. The quieter guys who are in the know and study film seem to like Penix over JJ. We don't know how it will all shake out, maybe both work out, but I think they takeaway here is Penix should get a shot to show what he can do in the NFL and some "loud" people are writing him off.
It was written in jest. PIT needs a C, OT, CB and WR/ILB.
Faust
MVP
Chase Daniel
10 Michael Penix Jr. plays that show he’s the real deal. I wasn’t a believer at first, but now I’m fully on board.
Get ready for your new QB @Seahawks fans…he’s a perfect fit. #GoHawks
: youtu.be/OL2r9z1c--U
Faust
MVP
Chase Daniel
For the “you don’t know ball” haters….stop being so sensitive. You’re allowed to your own opinion.
Here’s a 22 min long FULL breakdown of Michael Penix Jr.
One of the best games I’ve seen a college QB play from a pure throwing standpoint.
: youtu.be/OL2r9z1c--U
Faust
MVP
Mina Kimes
With Penix Jr, I have questions about pocket movement and throwing over the middle. And yet.....he flashed all of that vs Texas!
Good convo with @MovetheSticks about what it means when a QB prospect has an unreal game.
: apple.co/2RV6YWp
: youtube.com/watch?v=8kZGWj…
In my SF league, I am thinking 1.9 with Williams, Harrison, Nabers, Maye, Bowers, Odzune, Daniels, McCarthy going ahead. Depends on needs but could be anywhere between 6 and 10. One team with 3-6 has last years 3 1st round QBs. So that impacts dropping. Nix, Thomas, Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Brooks probably round out round 1 for my league.
miqws
Footballguy
In superflex consensus rankings, Penix is QB31, pick 2.09 assuming 12 team (in the D. Carr/D. Jones area). I have him around QB26 (~2.01, Stafford/Baker).. I think Denver will take a hard look at him and would be a good fit.
This is where I land. Depending on team construct/needs, I am thinking anywhere from 6-12/13. If you are in SF & TEP, I can't see him before Bowers and the big 3 WRs, so he's likely 7 at best. Then, he's polarizing to the community, someone will fall in love with a RB or 2 (because we do), you have JJ & Nix, maybe another TE in a TEP? Plus, the 2nd tier WRs. So, a wide range. That said, depending on landing spot, I wouldn't be mad to see him there at 8-10 and I'm on the clock in a SF.
Big Nate
Footballguy
This is a situation I can get behind for Penix. He can go in and take a year or so to sit back and learn. Cousins can be the guy until he is not anymore.
Doesn't have to be the Falcons but any situation behind an aging vet who he can learn from. Take the pressure off Penix from the start and let him grow into the starter.
Big Nate
Footballguy
He's been top second round prediction forever. C'mon.
The question is, does a QB needy team at the top of the 2nd try to move into the first like TEN did last year with Levis. TEN was unsuccessful getting into the first but eventually got their guy.
I think a QB needy team panics and tries to trade up to get Penix. His talents put him right in line with most of the other QBs going top 10-12.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Dallas has so many needs right now. I think they might like to have him but I don't see how they take him with their first round pick and he will be gone by the time their 2nd comes around. Unless they do some fancy pick maneuvering with Arizona dropping down to 27 and also picking up #35.
I sort of agree, but I think that'd be an awful pick for the Falcons. They should be looking at more of a guy like Rattler in round 3. They've been the best team in the AFC South the last 2 seasons, just held back by HC/QB. I think they could run away with the South this year.
I don't think Penix is gonna get the luxury of sitting. I think QB desperation is high enough, that I don't see Penix (or any of the top-6 QBs) getting to sit a year. Its not what I would do, but I'm starting to really buy into Raiders at #13. The biggest thing for Penix in my eyes, is that he has to go someone with quality weapons. Adams/Meyers/Mayer would qualify for sure.
Big Nate
Footballguy
I do like the Raiders spot as you mentioned. Would he go as high as 13? Maybe the Raiders trade back a bit and pick him up slightly later. Some people are now saying DEN at 12 is looking at Nix or Penix. Man this could get really exciting fast.
All it takes though is a team to get scared they will get sniped and they will jump at moving up. Maybe this is the draft where the teams say F-it and just take their favorite player on the board like DET did with Gibbs last year.
This draft is going to be exciting. Many mocks have multiple trades in the first round and the QBs keep getting pushed up each week we get closer to the draft. I can't wait to see how things shake out.
I'm starting to come around to the idea that some teams (possibly Denver) prefer Nix/Penix to some of the "top guys" I think we could see 6 QBs in the top-13. Its not what I what do, but again, QB desperation is a hell of a thing.
I also don't think teams are gonna be as willing to trade down as commonly believed. I think Arizona and LAC (and maybe NE, tough to know without Belichick there) are gonna want the world to move down. Like WELL ABOVE the trade chart value. Like 3 1sts from the Vikings to go from #11 to #4 or #5, both due to QB demand, and also the eliteness of the WRs available there.
Chaos34
Footballguy
Yup. Agree with all of this. Throw out the pick value chart and don't get worked up if your team pays excessively to move up for qb, wr, te, ot. It's not a pick value chart for the top dozen picks this year. It's an elite player value chart. AZ isn't trading pick 4; they're trading Marvin Harrison.
I can also see 6 QBs going in the top half of the draft and won't blink if 7 go in the 1st round. I also don't think there's anything close to a consensus on qbs 2-6.
7 QBs would surprise me a ton. Rattler has as many red flags as China. I think he's more likely to go round 4 than round 1.
JJ has the youth. JJ has the unknown. In a very limited sample size he looks like he can do it all. He clearly has great athleticism. He seems to be a great leader. If you take him with a high pick you are projecting into the future what he could be. I've heard the league is split on what they think of him.
Penix is a more tangible asset. He obviously has a great arm. He has lots of film for scouts to study. If coaches think his cons can be fixed or improved on then what are we doing here? This guy is pretty darn amazing. I've been nit picking him but the more film I watch I think he could be the guy.
Similar threads
