Brady Gonzalez Lewis Moss (1 Viewer)

[Fiddles]

Seems rare for the final 4 to each have a first ballot hall of famer. Enjoy em while you can.

 

[David Yudkin]

Given the voting patterns in the past, Moss may not be a first ballot guy (although he should be).

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

According to PFR's "Approximate Value" leaders among active players: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/av_active.htm

Rank Player (age) AV Years Teams1. Peyton Manning (35) 220 1998-2012 2TM2. Ray Lewis (36) 218 1996-2012 rav3. Tony Gonzalez (35) 160 1997-2012 2TM4. Tom Brady (34) 160 2000-2012 nwe5. Randy Moss (34) 157 1998-2012 5TMYou've got numbers 2, 3, 4, and 5 in the entire league playing for 4 different teams on Championship Weekend. I'm 100% certain that's never happened before.Fiddles is right: enjoy 'em while you can.

 

[Jewell]

Seems rare for the final 4 to each have a first ballot hall of famer. Enjoy em while you can.

I think that New England and Baltimore each have a pair of fist ballot HOFers.New England: Tom Brady, Bill Belichick

Baltimore: Ray Lewis, Ed Reed

You could also make a strong Hall Of Fame argument for Welker, but he'd likely miss getting in on his first chance.

 

[tietzjd]

Seems rare for the final 4 to each have a first ballot hall of famer. Enjoy em while you can.

I think that New England and Baltimore each have a pair of fist ballot HOFers.New England: Tom Brady, Bill Belichick

Baltimore: Ray Lewis, Ed Reed

You could also make a strong Hall Of Fame argument for Welker, but he'd likely miss getting in on his first chance.

If Guys like CC and Reed are not getting in with what they did before the passing era started. Welker will never be in HoF.

 

[Sarnoff]

"First Ballot" is the biggest load of BS out there. Either they deserve to be in or they don't. None of this "Oh, he's a hall-of-famer, just not a first-ballot hall-of-famer." There aren't ####### tiers in the HOF. 30 years later no one remembers how many ballots it took to get a guy in.

 

[jurb26]

Given the voting patterns in the past, Moss may not be a first ballot guy (although he should be).

Moss not being a 1st ballot guy would be mind numbingly stupid. There is really no excuse for that.I agree with the Ed Reed mention. He has to be a 1st ballot guy as well. He's the best Safety of this generation.

 

[David Yudkin]

Given the voting patterns in the past, Moss may not be a first ballot guy (although he should be).

Moss not being a 1st ballot guy would be mind numbingly stupid. There is really no excuse for that.I agree with the Ed Reed mention. He has to be a 1st ballot guy as well. He's the best Safety of this generation.

I agree with you, but I suspect there will be voters that will initially cite his attitude, his off field antics, his quick fall from grace, taking plays off, wearing out his welcome on 3 teams in a year, etc. as reasons to not vote for him out of the gate.

 

[dgreen]

Seems rare for the final 4 to each have a first ballot hall of famer. Enjoy em while you can.

I think that New England and Baltimore each have a pair of fist ballot HOFers.New England: Tom Brady, Bill Belichick

Baltimore: Ray Lewis, Ed Reed

You could also make a strong Hall Of Fame argument for Welker, but he'd likely miss getting in on his first chance.

A lot of coaches don't get in on their first ballot because "they might decide to coach again".

 

[dgreen]

Fiddles is right: enjoy 'em while you can.

I'd love to see Moss do something awesome again, but unfortunately there's just not much there to enjoy anymore.

 

[jurb26]

Fiddles is right: enjoy 'em while you can.

I'd love to see Moss do something awesome again, but unfortunately there's just not much there to enjoy anymore.

I think he is still capable of making plays but SF just doesn't utilize him much in their scheme. He's not their best offensive player, not even in the top 3. He still gets open and still gets behind defenses though. It just seems they're never looking his way.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Given the voting patterns in the past, Moss may not be a first ballot guy (although he should be).

Moss not being a 1st ballot guy would be mind numbingly stupid. There is really no excuse for that.I agree with the Ed Reed mention. He has to be a 1st ballot guy as well. He's the best Safety of this generation.

I agree with you, but I suspect there will be voters that will initially cite his attitude, his off field antics, his quick fall from grace, taking plays off, wearing out his welcome on 3 teams in a year, etc. as reasons to not vote for him out of the gate.

Agreed. I have said for years that I think voters will make both Moss and Owens wait years to get in.

 

[Jewell]

Seems rare for the final 4 to each have a first ballot hall of famer. Enjoy em while you can.

I think that New England and Baltimore each have a pair of fist ballot HOFers.New England: Tom Brady, Bill Belichick

Baltimore: Ray Lewis, Ed Reed

You could also make a strong Hall Of Fame argument for Welker, but he'd likely miss getting in on his first chance.

A lot of coaches don't get in on their first ballot because "they might decide to coach again".

That's undoubtedly true, but here's my rationale as to why Bill will get in on his first ballot.I figure that Bill will want to coach as long as Brady plays because Bill, being an NFL historian, considers his place in NFL history. Bill knows that as long as Brady plays he can continue to rack up impressive regular season win totals and perhaps some more Super Bowl rings. Brady has said he wants to play until he's 40. Brady is 35 now. It's feasible that Brady could play until he's 40 based on his style of play and how few hits he takes, but say Brady falls short and only plays four more years until age 39. I'd imagine the Belichick would hang them up when Brady does because he doesn't want to go through a rebuilding process or potentially have it be exposed that Brady was more responsible for the Patriots incredible run if Belichick falters without Brady.

Bill would then be 64 when he hangs them up. Add the five year waiting period to appear on the ballot and Bill would be 69. I think that most voters would guess that the old-timer wouldn't come back to coach at that age, and even if Bill did his legacy was already so Canton worthy that it couldn't potentially be tarnished with a sub-par subsequent coaching stint.

 

[David Yudkin]

Wasn't Parcells eligible in other years but was ignored (for fear of him coaching again)? Or am I mis-remembering?

 

[dgreen]

Wasn't Parcells eligible in other years but was ignored (for fear of him coaching again)? Or am I mis-remembering?

Yes, I believe that is why Parcells isn't in yet. Other coaches also waited.Scanning through the people who were elected in their first year of eligibility, I only see Noll and Shula. (I might have overlooked someone.) Shula was butt old and was definitely not going to return. I'm kind of surprised Noll got in at that time since he was "only" 61.

 

[Jewell]

Wasn't Parcells eligible in other years but was ignored (for fear of him coaching again)? Or am I mis-remembering?

You are correct.Parcells does have a history of suggesting that he's done, though, and then resurfacing. Belichick doesn't have that background for voters to consider.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Is Welker a first ballod HOF?I cant think of a player who is more over looked by the general public.I realize he play in a great system and with a great QB but they are not nearly as good without a healthy Welker in his prime there.

 

[David Yudkin]

Is Welker a first ballod HOF?I cant think of a player who is more over looked by the general public.I realize he play in a great system and with a great QB but they are not nearly as good without a healthy Welker in his prime there.

There are lots of reasons to NOT vote for Welker. No ring, playing with a great QB, system guy, not many TD, mostly short dump offs, not high on career totals yet, lots of other HOF worthy WR candidates, etc.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Is Welker a first ballod HOF?

No. In fact, right now, he's probably not even a Hall of Famer at all. For the reasons, among others, that David Yudkin just posted. Even if he gets a ring this year, rings are usually not make or break for WRs, unless they are part of a dynasty (see: Michael Irvin and Lynn Swann) and pile up 3-4. Plus, WRs have a tough time getting in, and there is no way you can say that from his generation, Welker is more deserving than Megatron, Fitz, Andre Johnson or even Roddy White.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Is Welker a first ballod HOF?

No. In fact, right now, he's probably not even a Hall of Famer at all. For the reasons, among others, that David Yudkin just posted. Even if he gets a ring this year, rings are usually not make or break for WRs, unless they are part of a dynasty (see: Michael Irvin and Lynn Swann) and pile up 3-4. Plus, WRs have a tough time getting in, and there is no way you can say that from his generation, Welker is more deserving than Megatron, Fitz, Andre Johnson or even Roddy White.

Why?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Is Welker a first ballod HOF?I cant think of a player who is more over looked by the general public.I realize he play in a great system and with a great QB but they are not nearly as good without a healthy Welker in his prime there.

There are lots of reasons to NOT vote for Welker. No ring, playing with a great QB, system guy, not many TD, mostly short dump offs, not high on career totals yet, lots of other HOF worthy WR candidates, etc.

How many players were catching 100 plus balls in that system pre Welker?

 

[David Yudkin]

Is Welker a first ballod HOF?I cant think of a player who is more over looked by the general public.I realize he play in a great system and with a great QB but they are not nearly as good without a healthy Welker in his prime there.

There are lots of reasons to NOT vote for Welker. No ring, playing with a great QB, system guy, not many TD, mostly short dump offs, not high on career totals yet, lots of other HOF worthy WR candidates, etc.

How many players were catching 100 plus balls in that system pre Welker?

I am not saying Welker shouldn't be a HOF candidate. I was playing devil's advocate.Troy Brown had 100 receptions once, but that was it. The offense evolved over time, Brady got more weapons, the playbook was expanded, the running game got worse, the defense got worse, the rules on offense were enforced to help the offense, different coordinators, all played into Welker catching so many receptions.We can't chance history, but it would have been interesting to see how WSelker fared in 01-06 if he were on the Pats.

 

[Jewell]

WRs have a tough time getting in, and there is no way you can say that from his generation, Welker is more deserving than Megatron, Fitz, Andre Johnson or even Roddy White.

You could argue that Reggie Wayne and Brandon Marshall should also be in the group to be considered over Welker.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Is Welker a first ballod HOF?I cant think of a player who is more over looked by the general public.I realize he play in a great system and with a great QB but they are not nearly as good without a healthy Welker in his prime there.

There are lots of reasons to NOT vote for Welker. No ring, playing with a great QB, system guy, not many TD, mostly short dump offs, not high on career totals yet, lots of other HOF worthy WR candidates, etc.

How many players were catching 100 plus balls in that system pre Welker?

I am not saying Welker shouldn't be a HOF candidate. I was playing devil's advocate.Troy Brown had 100 receptions once, but that was it. The offense evolved over time, Brady got more weapons, the playbook was expanded, the running game got worse, the defense got worse, the rules on offense were enforced to help the offense, different coordinators, all played into Welker catching so many receptions.We can't chance history, but it would have been interesting to see how WSelker fared in 01-06 if he were on the Pats.

All we can do is look at numbers. Welker has been the most consistent WR on the Patriots since 2007. Others come and go, and some try to fill voids, but Welker just catches 115 balls a year for 1200-1400 yards. You don't have 5 plus 100 catch seasons without being HOF worthy. If it were so easy other teams and players would do it.

 

[David Yudkin]

Is Welker a first ballod HOF?I cant think of a player who is more over looked by the general public.I realize he play in a great system and with a great QB but they are not nearly as good without a healthy Welker in his prime there.

There are lots of reasons to NOT vote for Welker. No ring, playing with a great QB, system guy, not many TD, mostly short dump offs, not high on career totals yet, lots of other HOF worthy WR candidates, etc.

How many players were catching 100 plus balls in that system pre Welker?

I am not saying Welker shouldn't be a HOF candidate. I was playing devil's advocate.Troy Brown had 100 receptions once, but that was it. The offense evolved over time, Brady got more weapons, the playbook was expanded, the running game got worse, the defense got worse, the rules on offense were enforced to help the offense, different coordinators, all played into Welker catching so many receptions.We can't chance history, but it would have been interesting to see how WSelker fared in 01-06 if he were on the Pats.

All we can do is look at numbers. Welker has been the most consistent WR on the Patriots since 2007. Others come and go, and some try to fill voids, but Welker just catches 115 balls a year for 1200-1400 yards. You don't have 5 plus 100 catch seasons without being HOF worthy. If it were so easy other teams and players would do it.

I'm on your side, but if Welker never played another down I doubt he gets inducted . . . no matter what the numbers show.

 

[Sarnoff]

The "first ballot" moniker is even more asinine when applied to the NFL than, say, baseball. In baseball, it's a stupid distinction. In the NFL, it's a really, really, really stupid distinction to make. Getting in on the first ballot has more to do with what year you retire, and who else retired that year, than anything related to your skills and stats. If 6 "first-ballot" HOF'ers retire in the same year, with 5 or 6 holdovers from previous years still on the ballot, who deserves to make the cut?

 

[Jewell]

All we can do is look at numbers. Welker has been the most consistent WR on the Patriots since 2007. Others come and go, and some try to fill voids, but Welker just catches 115 balls a year for 1200-1400 yards. You don't have 5 plus 100 catch seasons without being HOF worthy. If it were so easy other teams and players would do it.

Welker also has the following going for him:- During Welker's years with the Patriots the team has put up several seasons that are among the highest point totals in NFL history. Over the six year period that Welker was on the Patriots the team put up a higher point total than any other six-year-span in NFL history -- and quite handidly. Minus Tom Brady, Welker has been the most important part of the Patriots' offense over that span.- Welker is the only player in NFL history with five season with 100+ receptions. This likley would have been six consecutive seasons of 100+ receptions but for Welker's knee injury.- Dynasty Effect: Even though Welker hasn't won any Sper Bowls, he has appeared in two Super Bowls and the Patriots have been among the absolute top teams during his time on the team. The Pats get a lot of national exposure and Welker has become widely associated with the greatness of those Patriot teams. In other sports we've seen Phil Rizzuto get into the Baseball Hall of Fame even though there were better players during his time in MLB mainly because Rizzuto was associated with the Yankees' greatness. Likewise, we've also seen KC Jones get into the Basketball Hall of Fame even though there were better players during his time in the NBA mainly because KC was associated with the Celtics' greatness.

 

[CalBear]

All we can do is look at numbers. Welker has been the most consistent WR on the Patriots since 2007. Others come and go, and some try to fill voids, but Welker just catches 115 balls a year for 1200-1400 yards. You don't have 5 plus 100 catch seasons without being HOF worthy. If it were so easy other teams and players would do it.

Receptions are the least important receiving stat. In terms of yardage, Welker has finished in the top 7 twice; in terms of TDs, he's finished in the top 10 once. His production is weak given how many targets and receptions he gets.

 

[wodahSShadow]

Is Welker a first ballod HOF?

No. In fact, right now, he's probably not even a Hall of Famer at all. For the reasons, among others, that David Yudkin just posted. Even if he gets a ring this year, rings are usually not make or break for WRs, unless they are part of a dynasty (see: Michael Irvin and Lynn Swann) and pile up 3-4. Plus, WRs have a tough time getting in, and there is no way you can say that from his generation, Welker is more deserving than Megatron, Fitz, Andre Johnson or even Roddy White.

You are going to bring up non-multiple Super Bowl wins as a detriment to Welker and than mention these folk? Granted Fitz and Megatron are certainly in a different class, especially Fitz considering what he has done over a longer period and on bigger stages than CJ (setting multiple records in the 2008 playoffs), but I really don't get how you go AJ or Roddy Dub over him. Welker may have not won a super bowl, but he has been the #1 receiver on/for:

- 4 of the Top 13 Scoring Teams of All Time, Incl. #1 ( http://mcubed.net/nfl/ptmpfpg.shtml . AJ or White, in the era of passing/offense, have not been on a team in the top 100)

- 16-0 team

- Arguably the #1 QB of All Time (Randy Moss doesn't count since it was for only 2 years)

- for a powerhouse Non-Running team (Atlanta/Roddy White has been a running team nearly his entire career. The last half of AJ's career being the same).

I'm not saying Wes deserves the HoF, at least yet, but judging by general HoF credentials- that great teams send their best players to the HoF- there is zero chance AJ and Roddy get in over Welker considering that Welker has been the main focal point of some of the greatest offenses of all time. The fact that Roddy has played most of his career on a running-based team (and AJ for half of his career), those further strengthen Welker's chance over them.

 

[wodahSShadow]

All we can do is look at numbers. Welker has been the most consistent WR on the Patriots since 2007. Others come and go, and some try to fill voids, but Welker just catches 115 balls a year for 1200-1400 yards.

You don't have 5 plus 100 catch seasons without being HOF worthy. If it were so easy other teams and players would do it.

Receptions are the least important receiving stat. In terms of yardage, Welker has finished in the top 7 twice; in terms of TDs, he's finished in the top 10 once. His production is weak given how many targets and receptions he gets.

:/ Care to back that statement up?

 

[CalBear]

All we can do is look at numbers. Welker has been the most consistent WR on the Patriots since 2007. Others come and go, and some try to fill voids, but Welker just catches 115 balls a year for 1200-1400 yards.

You don't have 5 plus 100 catch seasons without being HOF worthy. If it were so easy other teams and players would do it.

Receptions are the least important receiving stat. In terms of yardage, Welker has finished in the top 7 twice; in terms of TDs, he's finished in the top 10 once. His production is weak given how many targets and receptions he gets.

:/ Care to back that statement up?

Does a reception get you a first down or a score? It's an input metric, just like carries and passing attempts. Drew Bledsoe had over 600 passing attempts four times, which was probably a record when he retired; that's a measure of how weak his production was.

 

[Jewell]

All we can do is look at numbers. Welker has been the most consistent WR on the Patriots since 2007. Others come and go, and some try to fill voids, but Welker just catches 115 balls a year for 1200-1400 yards.

You don't have 5 plus 100 catch seasons without being HOF worthy. If it were so easy other teams and players would do it.

Receptions are the least important receiving stat. In terms of yardage, Welker has finished in the top 7 twice; in terms of TDs, he's finished in the top 10 once. His production is weak given how many targets and receptions he gets.

:/ Care to back that statement up?

Does a reception get you a first down or a score? It's an input metric, just like carries and passing attempts. Drew Bledsoe had over 600 passing attempts four times, which was probably a record when he retired; that's a measure of how weak his production was.

It could also be argued that Welker is one of the most reliable third down receivers in NFL history.

 

[David Yudkin]

All we can do is look at numbers. Welker has been the most consistent WR on the Patriots since 2007. Others come and go, and some try to fill voids, but Welker just catches 115 balls a year for 1200-1400 yards. You don't have 5 plus 100 catch seasons without being HOF worthy. If it were so easy other teams and players would do it.

Welker also has the following going for him:- During Welker's years with the Patriots the team has put up several seasons that are among the highest point totals in NFL history. Over the six year period that Welker was on the Patriots the team put up a higher point total than any other six-year-span in NFL history -- and quite handidly. Minus Tom Brady, Welker has been the most important part of the Patriots' offense over that span.- Welker is the only player in NFL history with five season with 100+ receptions. This likley would have been six consecutive seasons of 100+ receptions but for Welker's knee injury.- Dynasty Effect: Even though Welker hasn't won any Sper Bowls, he has appeared in two Super Bowls and the Patriots have been among the absolute top teams during his time on the team. The Pats get a lot of national exposure and Welker has become widely associated with the greatness of those Patriot teams. In other sports we've seen Phil Rizzuto get into the Baseball Hall of Fame even though there were better players during his time in MLB mainly because Rizzuto was associated with the Yankees' greatness. Likewise, we've also seen KC Jones get into the Basketball Hall of Fame even though there were better players during his time in the NBA mainly because KC was associated with the Celtics' greatness.

For those that don't understand, I can (and have) argue(d) both sides of an argument in the same thread. That being said, these same arguments laid out for Welker also would hold true to Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. Both were on superhuman offenses that racked up tons of yards, tons of points, and went to 2 Super Bowls (led by a HOF QB).For people that have been around here long enough, both of those guys have been debated ad nasuem as borderline HOFers.Both STL and NE teams put up 3 seasons with 500+ points scored. With offense easier to come by these days, a case could be made that it was tougher for the Rams duo to put up the numbers they did.The past 6 years, Welker posted: 672-7459-37From 2000-2005, Holt produced: 567-8699-48Bruce is harder to compare, as he had years where he got hurt and missed a ton of time. But his best 6 years in STL added up to: 520-8153-53.Sure, Welker caught more passes, but as others have mentioned, is more receptions for fewer yards and fewer TD better, the same, or worse in terms of production (ie, the Hines Ward debate all over again)?

 

[Jewell]

For those that don't understand, I can (and have) argue(d) both sides of an argument in the same thread.

Yep, I'm doing the same. That's why I added Reggie Wayne and Brandon Marshall to the above list of contemporary receivers that could be considered better than Welker, and I'm arguing that Welker could be inducted based on X, Y, Z rather than saying that Welker should be inducted based on X, Y, Z. He's a borderline candidate unlike Moss who is undoubtedly in even if snubbed on the first ballot.

 

[CalBear]

It could also be argued that Welker is one of the most reliable third down receivers in NFL history.

It's hard to see how that could be reasonably argued. The most first down receptions Wes Welker has had on third down is 24 (2011), which is good for a tie for 28th since 2002. (#1: Marvin Harrison, 2002, with 36 first down receptions on third down). Among the guys ahead are Calvin Johnson (30 in 2012), Roddy White (29 in 2010, 28 in 2008, 25 in 2012), TJ Houshmandzadeh (27 in 2007, 26 in 2008), Davone Bess (28 in 2008), Jerricho Cotchery (26 in 2006), Laverneus Coles (26 in 2002), and Chad Johnson (26 in 2003). He's nowhere near the top of this list among his peers, let alone all-time.

 

[Jewell]

It could also be argued that Welker is one of the most reliable third down receivers in NFL history.

It's hard to see how that could be reasonably argued. The most first down receptions Wes Welker has had on third down is 24 (2011), which is good for a tie for 28th since 2002. (#1: Marvin Harrison, 2002, with 36 first down receptions on third down). Among the guys ahead are Calvin Johnson (30 in 2012), Roddy White (29 in 2010, 28 in 2008, 25 in 2012), TJ Houshmandzadeh (27 in 2007, 26 in 2008), Davone Bess (28 in 2008), Jerricho Cotchery (26 in 2006), Laverneus Coles (26 in 2002), and Chad Johnson (26 in 2003). He's nowhere near the top of this list among his peers, let alone all-time.

Being a Patriots fan and consistently seeing Welker be Brady's security blanket on third down may have skewed my opinion on this. I did concede earlier in the thread that Calvin and Roddy are in the class of contemporaries that are better than Welker. Just out curiosity, though, I see that you list individual seasons rather than the career body of work. I don't question the legitimacy of the numbers you provided, but would you mind sharing the link where you found those numbers so that I can tinker around and see if Welker is more consistent year-in year out on that stat such that it could be said that Welker had one of the more prolonged runs as a reliable third down receiver.

 

[CalBear]

It could also be argued that Welker is one of the most reliable third down receivers in NFL history.

It's hard to see how that could be reasonably argued. The most first down receptions Wes Welker has had on third down is 24 (2011), which is good for a tie for 28th since 2002. (#1: Marvin Harrison, 2002, with 36 first down receptions on third down). Among the guys ahead are Calvin Johnson (30 in 2012), Roddy White (29 in 2010, 28 in 2008, 25 in 2012), TJ Houshmandzadeh (27 in 2007, 26 in 2008), Davone Bess (28 in 2008), Jerricho Cotchery (26 in 2006), Laverneus Coles (26 in 2002), and Chad Johnson (26 in 2003). He's nowhere near the top of this list among his peers, let alone all-time.

Being a Patriots fan and consistently seeing Welker be Brady's security blanket on third down may have skewed my opinion on this. I did concede earlier in the thread that Calvin and Roddy are in the class of contemporaries that are better than Welker. Just out curiosity, though, I see that you list individual seasons rather than the career body of work. I don't question the legitimacy of the numbers you provided, but would you mind sharing the link where you found those numbers so that I can tinker around and see if Welker is more consistent year-in year out on that stat such that it could be said that Welker had one of the more prolonged runs as a reliable third down receiver.

I got them from the Data Dominator. From 2002-2012, Wes Welker is #13 in first down receptions on third down, with 144. He's 2 first downs ahead of TJ Houshmandzadeh. #1 by a good bit is Reggie Wayne with 211, followed by Tony Gonzalez; then you have Derrick Mason and Donald Driver, who are better comps for Welker than the top receivers listed here.

 

[Chazzhawk]

I would think Ed Reed would be first ballot too. Shouldn't he be on the list?

 

[captain_amazing]

It could also be argued that Welker is one of the most reliable third down receivers in NFL history.

It's hard to see how that could be reasonably argued. The most first down receptions Wes Welker has had on third down is 24 (2011), which is good for a tie for 28th since 2002. (#1: Marvin Harrison, 2002, with 36 first down receptions on third down). Among the guys ahead are Calvin Johnson (30 in 2012), Roddy White (29 in 2010, 28 in 2008, 25 in 2012), TJ Houshmandzadeh (27 in 2007, 26 in 2008), Davone Bess (28 in 2008), Jerricho Cotchery (26 in 2006), Laverneus Coles (26 in 2002), and Chad Johnson (26 in 2003). He's nowhere near the top of this list among his peers, let alone all-time.

Being a Patriots fan and consistently seeing Welker be Brady's security blanket on third down may have skewed my opinion on this. I did concede earlier in the thread that Calvin and Roddy are in the class of contemporaries that are better than Welker. Just out curiosity, though, I see that you list individual seasons rather than the career body of work. I don't question the legitimacy of the numbers you provided, but would you mind sharing the link where you found those numbers so that I can tinker around and see if Welker is more consistent year-in year out on that stat such that it could be said that Welker had one of the more prolonged runs as a reliable third down receiver.

I got them from the Data Dominator. From 2002-2012, Wes Welker is #13 in first down receptions on third down, with 144. He's 2 first downs ahead of TJ Houshmandzadeh. #1 by a good bit is Reggie Wayne with 211, followed by Tony Gonzalez; then you have Derrick Mason and Donald Driver, who are better comps for Welker than the top receivers listed here.

Not that I think it would make a difference in terms of the debate at hand, but it would be interesting to see the results based on years 2007-2012, Welker's tenure with the Patriots. I would suspect Welker would be closer to the top 5 in first down receptions on third down.

 

[Warrior]

Seems rare for the final 4 to each have a first ballot hall of famer. Enjoy em while you can.

I think that New England and Baltimore each have a pair of fist ballot HOFers.New England: Tom Brady, Bill Belichick

Baltimore: Ray Lewis, Ed Reed

You could also make a strong Hall Of Fame argument for Welker, but he'd likely miss getting in on his first chance.

lol...slow down there, buster. Welker's not even close yet.

 

[David Yudkin]

Not that I think it would make a difference in terms of the debate at hand, but it would be interesting to see the results based on years 2007-2012, Welker's tenure with the Patriots. I would suspect Welker would be closer to the top 5 in first down receptions on third down.

1 Reggie Wayne 4052 Roddy White 3903 Wes Welker 3894 Brandon Marshall 3815 Larry Fitzgerald 3706 Calvin Johnson 3697 Andre Johnson 3498 Tony Gonzalez 3379 Marques Colston 33410 Jason Witten 306

 

[CalBear]

Not that I think it would make a difference in terms of the debate at hand, but it would be interesting to see the results based on years 2007-2012, Welker's tenure with the Patriots. I would suspect Welker would be closer to the top 5 in first down receptions on third down.

1 Reggie Wayne 4052 Roddy White 3903 Wes Welker 3894 Brandon Marshall 3815 Larry Fitzgerald 3706 Calvin Johnson 3697 Andre Johnson 3498 Tony Gonzalez 3379 Marques Colston 33410 Jason Witten 306

I think you're looking at total first down receptions, not first down receptions on third down. Doesn't change it too much, though:1 Roddy White 1462 Reggie Wayne 1343 Tony Gonzalez 1204 Wes Welker 1165 Brandon Marshall 1146 Calvin Johnson 1097 Dwayne Bowe 1038 Jason Witten 1029 Marques Colston 10210 Antonio Gates 98

 

[David Yudkin]

Yeah, I only listed overall first downs.

 

[Jewell]

Not that I think it would make a difference in terms of the debate at hand, but it would be interesting to see the results based on years 2007-2012, Welker's tenure with the Patriots. I would suspect Welker would be closer to the top 5 in first down receptions on third down.

1 Reggie Wayne 4052 Roddy White 390

3 Wes Welker 389

4 Brandon Marshall 381

5 Larry Fitzgerald 370

6 Calvin Johnson 369

7 Andre Johnson 349

8 Tony Gonzalez 337

9 Marques Colston 334

10 Jason Witten 306

I think you're looking at total first down receptions, not first down receptions on third down. Doesn't change it too much, though:1 Roddy White 146

2 Reggie Wayne 134

3 Tony Gonzalez 120

4 Wes Welker 116

5 Brandon Marshall 114

6 Calvin Johnson 109

7 Dwayne Bowe 103

8 Jason Witten 102

9 Marques Colston 102

10 Antonio Gates 98

Thanks for doing this leg work. I didn't even know Footballguys had that search feature.

So I was wrong about Welker being near the absolute top of third down receivers as their is quite a gap between his total and those of White and Wayne; but I was right that Welker's third down proficiency is reflected more in his year-to-year consistency than in him having one or two seasons leading the league.

That list may hurt the argument that Welker is one of the best third down receivers of all-time, but it doesn't really hurt the argument that Welker is potentially a Hall of Famer because all of the other guys around him on that list are either...

A sure fire Hall of Famers like Gonzalez (who is still getting it done on the back nine of his career, amazing); or

Are guys who are potential Hall of Famers based on what they've accomplished (Wayne, Witten, Gates); or

Are guys who are potential Hall of Famers based on their trajectory (White, Marshall, Johnson).

Obviously, some of these guys have stronger arguments than others for potential Hall induction , but all of those guys have some argument or are on pace for a solid arggument to be a HOFer.

 

[David Yudkin]

To play the role of Captain Obvious, the issue for anyone that played/plays WR is that there is a backlog of guys waiting to get in, several old timers or recent retirees that are going to get in, several borderline guys from the past generation, and a ton of current guys that are on track for consideration. Long story short, there is a LONG list of WR that merit consideration, and that list is longer than there are currently receivers in the HOF. Can they ALL get inducted? Unlikely, so we have to draw the line somewhere.

 

[CalBear]

To play the role of Captain Obvious, the issue for anyone that played/plays WR is that there is a backlog of guys waiting to get in, several old timers or recent retirees that are going to get in, several borderline guys from the past generation, and a ton of current guys that are on track for consideration. Long story short, there is a LONG list of WR that merit consideration, and that list is longer than there are currently receivers in the HOF. Can they ALL get inducted? Unlikely, so we have to draw the line somewhere.

To be specific, all of these guys would get in before Welker:Cris CarterTOMossHarrisonTim BrownTorry HoltIsaac BruceThen there's still Andre Reed sitting out there, along with Hines Ward, Rod Smith, and Jimmy Smith in Welker's tier. Then among the contemporaries you've got:Reggie WayneRoddy WhiteAndre JohnsonLarry FitzgeraldAll of whom are likely to retire close to the same time as Welker, and all of whom are likely to have better HOF credentials at the time.Welker is hanging out with guys like Driver and Steve Smith. Maybe he's the best of that tier, but that looks like 11 guys clearly ahead of him, and six others in his tier. That's a lot of WRs. And it leaves out all the guys a few years younger who are going to obliterate a lot of the stats of these guys.

 

[David Yudkin]

To play the role of Captain Obvious, the issue for anyone that played/plays WR is that there is a backlog of guys waiting to get in, several old timers or recent retirees that are going to get in, several borderline guys from the past generation, and a ton of current guys that are on track for consideration. Long story short, there is a LONG list of WR that merit consideration, and that list is longer than there are currently receivers in the HOF. Can they ALL get inducted? Unlikely, so we have to draw the line somewhere.

To be specific, all of these guys would get in before Welker:Cris CarterTOMossHarrisonTim BrownTorry HoltIsaac BruceThen there's still Andre Reed sitting out there, along with Hines Ward, Rod Smith, and Jimmy Smith in Welker's tier. Then among the contemporaries you've got:Reggie WayneRoddy WhiteAndre JohnsonLarry FitzgeraldAll of whom are likely to retire close to the same time as Welker, and all of whom are likely to have better HOF credentials at the time.Welker is hanging out with guys like Driver and Steve Smith. Maybe he's the best of that tier, but that looks like 11 guys clearly ahead of him, and six others in his tier. That's a lot of WRs. And it leaves out all the guys a few years younger who are going to obliterate a lot of the stats of these guys.

I would say that Welker is quite a bit ahead of Donald Driver. I personally see him more in the Roddy White range. Some of this is hard to sort out right now, as we don't know what will happen moving forward. If Welker stays in NE, by the time Welker (30) got to Wayne's age (33), Welker could have 100 more receptions than Wayne has now.For all the receptions Welker has had, he's two years older than Fitzgerlad but has only 4 more receptions.

 

[wildbill]

To play the role of Captain Obvious, the issue for anyone that played/plays WR is that there is a backlog of guys waiting to get in, several old timers or recent retirees that are going to get in, several borderline guys from the past generation, and a ton of current guys that are on track for consideration. Long story short, there is a LONG list of WR that merit consideration, and that list is longer than there are currently receivers in the HOF. Can they ALL get inducted? Unlikely, so we have to draw the line somewhere.

Walker is #29 on the career receptions list. He's 30 years old and with another four years similar to his previous four years he could retire at 34 in the top five. But it's interesting that only two of the top thirteen are in the Hall of Fame, Rice at #1 and Monk at #13. The others on the list are sure-fire Hall of Famers (Gonzalez, Harrison, Owens, Moss), borderline candidates (Bruce, Ward, Wayne, Mason), or finalists who are still waiting to get in (Carter, Brown, Reed). Even if you ignore the other receivers of this era, he's going to have award time getting in.

 

[David Yudkin]

To play the role of Captain Obvious, the issue for anyone that played/plays WR is that there is a backlog of guys waiting to get in, several old timers or recent retirees that are going to get in, several borderline guys from the past generation, and a ton of current guys that are on track for consideration. Long story short, there is a LONG list of WR that merit consideration, and that list is longer than there are currently receivers in the HOF. Can they ALL get inducted? Unlikely, so we have to draw the line somewhere.

Walker is #29 on the career receptions list. He's 30 years old and with another four years similar to his previous four years he could retire at 34 in the top five. But it's interesting that only two of the top thirteen are in the Hall of Fame, Rice at #1 and Monk at #13. The others on the list are sure-fire Hall of Famers (Gonzalez, Harrison, Owens, Moss), borderline candidates (Bruce, Ward, Wayne, Mason), or finalists who are still waiting to get in (Carter, Brown, Reed). Even if you ignore the other receivers of this era, he's going to have award time getting in.

Welker ranks a lot higher on the career receptions list (29th) than the yardage (67th) or TD (199th) ones. I think he will have a harder time getting HOF consideration than some folks are considering unless he goes on to have an insane amount more production or rings to show for it (or both). If he played 5 more years x 100 receptions a year (that may be harder than it has been recently), he could end up top 5 in career receptions, but I still don't think that gets him a free pass as an automatic HOFer.

 

[Ghost Rider]

All we can do is look at numbers. Welker has been the most consistent WR on the Patriots since 2007. Others come and go, and some try to fill voids, but Welker just catches 115 balls a year for 1200-1400 yards. You don't have 5 plus 100 catch seasons without being HOF worthy. If it were so easy other teams and players would do it.

Receptions are the least important receiving stat. In terms of yardage, Welker has finished in the top 7 twice; in terms of TDs, he's finished in the top 10 once.

I put way more stock in yards, YPC and TDs when it comes to wide receivers than I do catches, and neither Welker's YPC nor his TDs are impressive at all. I know it's a cliche to say he is a product of the system, but he really is. If nothing else, the guy is durable as hell, to touch the ball as often as he does, and take the hits he does, and almost never get hurt. Also, lack of TDs over the years will probably keep Andre Johnson out of the Hall (56 in 10 seasons...ouch). Playing in Houston won't help him either.