ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Was listening to a podcast the other day (might have been The Athletic Football Show) where a guy was talking about Stafford and the trade to the Rams, and then he paused and said, "Of course, if Jaquiski Tartt doesn't drop an absolute gimme of an interception, we're having a totally different conversation."
Obviously, if you define it broadly enough, any play could be a "sliding doors" moment. There's a big game, someone wins, someone loses, and that ends up playing a role in how we think about each of them. But there are a couple things that make the Stafford play stand out (and one that doesn't). For one, it easily could have -- hell, almost definitely should have -- gone the other way. This was the easiest INT Tartt or any other DB will ever see. And if he makes it and the Rams go on to lose, it's not just that they don't go to the Super Bowl, it's that they don't go because of a horrible throw by Stafford. All of a sudden maybe that wasn't such a great trade by the Rams. And then we might not get the whole "You have to upgrade your QB" movement that led to the Wilson and Watson trades, and we're looking at a very different league.
(The one thing cutting against my analysis: I could have sworn that the play took place much later in the 4th quarter, but watching the replay, I realized there were nine minutes left and the Niners were clinging to a three-point lead. So it's not like they definitely would have won if Tartt catches that ball. In fact, given the way that Stafford and Kupp came through in the clutch and Jimmy G wilted, maybe the game would have ended the exact same way.)
The all-time example of what I'm talking about has to be the Butler INT. If Seattle scores there, they become only the second team this century to win back-to-backs, Carroll and Wilson become legends, and Jermaine Kearse is signing autographs next to David Tyree at memorabilia conventions for the next two decades. Meanwhile, the Pats and Brady would have followed three Super Bowl wins with three straight losses, and all the sports chatter is whether they've lost their mojo.
The Tuck Rule game is another great example. If that's ruled a fumble, the Pats lose, they don't jumpstart their dynasty, and maybe Belichick doesn't stick with Brady the following year. After all, at that point he would have just been a backup who performed decently while filling in before flaming out in his first playoff game.
Another example: In the final week of the 2003 season, Josh McCown threw a TD on the game's final play to beat Minnesota, knocking the Vikings out of the playoffs and the Cardinals out of the top draft spot. I don't know how much damage the Vikings would have done in the playoffs, but Arizona missed out on a chance to draft Eli or Rivers (given the Cardinals' history, I suspect Archie would have forced the same trade from them as he did from San Diego).
What are some others?
Obviously, if you define it broadly enough, any play could be a "sliding doors" moment. There's a big game, someone wins, someone loses, and that ends up playing a role in how we think about each of them. But there are a couple things that make the Stafford play stand out (and one that doesn't). For one, it easily could have -- hell, almost definitely should have -- gone the other way. This was the easiest INT Tartt or any other DB will ever see. And if he makes it and the Rams go on to lose, it's not just that they don't go to the Super Bowl, it's that they don't go because of a horrible throw by Stafford. All of a sudden maybe that wasn't such a great trade by the Rams. And then we might not get the whole "You have to upgrade your QB" movement that led to the Wilson and Watson trades, and we're looking at a very different league.
(The one thing cutting against my analysis: I could have sworn that the play took place much later in the 4th quarter, but watching the replay, I realized there were nine minutes left and the Niners were clinging to a three-point lead. So it's not like they definitely would have won if Tartt catches that ball. In fact, given the way that Stafford and Kupp came through in the clutch and Jimmy G wilted, maybe the game would have ended the exact same way.)
The all-time example of what I'm talking about has to be the Butler INT. If Seattle scores there, they become only the second team this century to win back-to-backs, Carroll and Wilson become legends, and Jermaine Kearse is signing autographs next to David Tyree at memorabilia conventions for the next two decades. Meanwhile, the Pats and Brady would have followed three Super Bowl wins with three straight losses, and all the sports chatter is whether they've lost their mojo.
The Tuck Rule game is another great example. If that's ruled a fumble, the Pats lose, they don't jumpstart their dynasty, and maybe Belichick doesn't stick with Brady the following year. After all, at that point he would have just been a backup who performed decently while filling in before flaming out in his first playoff game.
Another example: In the final week of the 2003 season, Josh McCown threw a TD on the game's final play to beat Minnesota, knocking the Vikings out of the playoffs and the Cardinals out of the top draft spot. I don't know how much damage the Vikings would have done in the playoffs, but Arizona missed out on a chance to draft Eli or Rivers (given the Cardinals' history, I suspect Archie would have forced the same trade from them as he did from San Diego).
What are some others?
