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Andrew Luck will throw for 30 td's this season (1 Viewer)

L

Louisville Slugger

Footballguy
I may be going out on a bit of a limb saying this, but I think Andrew Luck is the best QB to enter the NFL since Peyton Manning and he will throw for 30 td's this season.

No doubt that Luck will have his rookie moments, but the guy is the prototypical NFL qb. It's as if he was created in a lab. Combine that with the fact that he has two all pro caliber wr's (assuming Collie stays healthy)a last place schedule and the fact that the Colts will be playing from behind a ton this season...I expect big things from Luck sooner rather than later.

I honestly think he is the better play this season than big names like Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub and possibly Tony Romo due to injuries to his wr's and te. I think Luck is every bit as good as Cam Newton was in his first season.

 
'Louisville Slugger said:
I may be going out on a bit of a limb saying this, but I think Andrew Luck is the best QB to enter the NFL since Peyton Manning and he will throw for 30 td's this season.

No doubt that Luck will have his rookie moments, but the guy is the prototypical NFL qb. It's as if he was created in a lab. Combine that with the fact that he has two all pro caliber wr's (assuming Collie stays healthy)a last place schedule and the fact that the Colts will be playing from behind a ton this season...I expect big things from Luck sooner rather than later.

I honestly think he is the better play this season than big names like Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub and possibly Tony Romo due to injuries to his wr's and te. I think Luck is every bit as good as Cam Newton was in his first season.
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I don't think he starts as hot as Cam did and I don't think he gets all the rushing TD's that Cam did, but I agree that he will easily be a top 6-8 QB in PPG by week 4 or 5 this year.
 
Best QBs since Peyton:

1.Rodgers

2.Brady

3.Peyton

4.Brees

Upside TBD: Cam, Stafford, Eli, Ben, Vick, Ryan

 
I don't think you are too far off on this.

The Colts were 10-6 two years ago before Manning was injured. They went 1-15 last season, not because they were a 1-15 team, but because they were a bunch of chumps who quit on their team. Now they have a QB they believe in, which will do wonders for a teams confidence.

I don't think 30 TD's is out of the realm of possibility, especially after watching him play in pre-season.

 
30 TDs....NO.

But I do think Luck will have a relatively good rookie year FF wise. RGIII is almost universally ranked higher but I think Luck will have the better year. And this is coming from a Skins fan. I think the Colts will be down earlier in games and will turn Luck loose more.

My brother in-law broke his budget on McCoy and MJD in our auction and is rolling with Luck his starting QB. Wouldnt recommend that but our league has very QB friendly scoring and I can see Luck producing enough week to week for him if his other studs perform up to par.

 
'LawFitz said:
Best QBs since Peyton:1.Rodgers2.Brady3.Peyton4.BreesUpside TBD: Cam, Stafford, Eli, Ben, Vick, Ryan
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Look at Aaron's pre-rule change stats; determine the increase in production; apply that to Peyton Manning's prime seasons. Results: Manning > Rodgers.
 
If he gets near 30 TDs, I think he's also looking at 25 picks. A rookie QB still has to deal with more complex coverages and pass rushes than he's ever seen, and that's going to lead to mistakes. When Manning threw nearly 600 times his rookie year, even he racked up 28 INTs on his way to a 3-13 record.

Luck will win a few games for the Colts this year, but if they unleash him like 1998 Manning, he's going to throw them out of a few, too. That's fine, but fantasy owners should be somewhat cautious of the downside in any rookie.

 
I agree with the OP 100%. Luck is the real deal and has a couple of really good wr's to go along with his talent.

 
'PatsFanCT said:
I don't think you are too far off on this.The Colts were 10-6 two years ago before Manning was injured. They went 1-15 last season, not because they were a 1-15 team, but because they were a bunch of chumps who quit on their team. Now they have a QB they believe in, which will do wonders for a teams confidence. I don't think 30 TD's is out of the realm of possibility, especially after watching him play in pre-season.
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A couple other folks have made similar posts in other threads. IMO, what happened in 2010 has nothing at all to do with the 2012 Colts. The players on the team, the coaching staff, and the administration have all changed dramatically. That's like saying the 2013 Boston Red Sox will be good because the 2011 Red Sox won 90 games.Defenses played about as vanilla schemes as possible in the preseason. Let's see how Luck does when opponents: 1) actually make a weekly defensive game plan, 2) use more than a base defense, 3) leave their starters out for more than 2 series in a game, and 4) use a bunch of different blitz packages. Luck may go on to be the next Peyton Manning, but there will likely be weeks where he looks lost and puts up some pretty poor passing totals this year.I think people forget how many rookie QBs have struggled over the years and everyone wants to cherry pick Cam Newton as the rule rather than the exception for rookie QB production.
 
I just see Pagano bringing the Baltimore defense-first, then run run run, mentality and Arians (Ben had one 30 TD season, in 2007, under Arians) and it's hard to imagine a vet putting up 30 TDs in such a system much less a rookie.

In addition I think they will be seeking to minimize his sacks and TO's the first year, especially at the beginning. Also, Collie is concussed, again, and he may be again once healthy or if healthy, and then what does Luck have after Wayne (he's older now, people couldn't help mentioning that last year) - Fleener, Hilton, Brazill, Brown (yes I could see him getting quite a few targets this year)?

 
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'Thumper said:
I agree with the OP 100%. Luck is the real deal and has a couple of really good wr's to go along with his talent.
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Being the real deal is one thing - I think most of us think Luck is. But throwing for 30+ TDs, and being more productive than the likes of Tony Romo - that's another question. I personally have to see it before I make such projections.
 
'David Yudkin said:
I think people forget how many rookie QBs have struggled over the years and everyone wants to cherry pick Cam Newton as the rule rather than the exception for rookie QB production.
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:goodposting: Only one rookie QB has thrown over 22 TD's - and that's Peyton Manning with 26.
 
'Louisville Slugger said:
the guy is the prototypical NFL qb. It's as if he was created in a lab. Combine that with the fact that he has two all pro caliber wr's (assuming Collie stays healthy)a last place schedule and the fact that the Colts will be playing from behind a ton this season
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If Luck is as good as you say, his receivers are as elite as you suggest, and the Colts' schedule is as easy as you anticipate... then why would the Colts be playing from behind so often?
 
'cstu said:
'David Yudkin said:
I think people forget how many rookie QBs have struggled over the years and everyone wants to cherry pick Cam Newton as the rule rather than the exception for rookie QB production.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Only one rookie QB has thrown over 22 TD's - and that's Peyton Manning with 26.
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Only one QB had passed for more than 5000 yards since 1984 too. Until last year when 3 did, and one came up 9 yards short. - This Colts team is nowhere near as bad as Manning's 98 squad was. - I have never seen a rookie QB look as good as Luck has this pre-season. And I know it's just pre-season, but the pure eye test tells you he is not your average rookie QB. - The league has been refurbished to accommodate the QB, so times have certainly changed.
 
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Luck will struggle mightily at Chicago. This thread will get bumped countless times after the game.

I see 20-25 TD's. There's questions with his weapons for duration of year (Collie staying on field & Wayne remaining effective with age & possiblity team isn't good again this year)

 
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Bears D is going to eat him alive. Mr. Peppers will say hi several times throughout the game. This isn't Stanford anymore.

 
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'GordonGekko said:
This is either the worst or second worst offensive line in the NFL, IMHO. People like to look at weapons, most people never look at the O line. When Jeff Saturday had a good game, Peyton Manning usually had a good game, but it wasn't always a lock. When Jeff Saturday had a bad game, Peyton Manning had a bad game. Period. I think far too often people avoid the reality that NFL center is an extremely difficult position to play, requiring massive sports IQ with a combination to multitask and read a defense as much as any offensive coordinator or quarterback has to in a game. It's an old sports cliche, but it's true, if you want to know how strong a team is, look how strong it is up the middle.
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Great post. I hadn't realized Satele was the center. There's definitely some upside there--he played much, much better in Oakland than he did in Miami--but he's still on his third team in six seasons. Tough.
 
'PatsFanCT said:
I don't think 30 TD's is out of the realm of possibility, especially after watching him play in pre-season.
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So what do you expect for Wilson based on pre-season?Luck - 41/66 for 522 yards. 3 TDs/2 INTs. 18 rushing/ 1 TDWilson - 40/63 for 536 yards. 5 TDs/1 INT. 150 rushing/ 1 TD
 
I think people are underrating Wayne and Collie here, not to mention the familiarity with Fleener and the ability to dump the ball off on him. The O-Line was a question mark for me going into the season, but they were better than advertised in the pre-season.

Given their schedule, I could see them oging 6-10 and Luck throwing 25 passing TD's, 3 rushing TD's with 16 INT. Not bad for a rookie.

 
Here were the rookie seasons for all QBs drafted first overall in the past 30 years.

Player Team Year Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TDCam Newton CAR 2011 310 517 4051 21 17 126 706 14Sam Bradford STL 2010 354 590 3512 18 15 27 63 1Matt Stafford DET 2009 201 377 2267 13 14 20 108 2J Russell OAK 2007 36 66 373 2 4 5 4 0Alex Smith SFO 2005 84 165 875 1 11 30 103 0Eli Manning SDG 2004 95 197 1043 6 9 6 35 0Carson Palmer CIN 2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0David Carr HOU 2002 233 444 2592 9 15 59 282 3Michael Vick ATL 2001 50 113 785 2 3 31 289 1Tim Couch CLE 1999 223 399 2447 15 13 40 267 1Peyton Manning IND 1998 326 575 3739 26 28 15 62 0Drew Bledsoe NWE 1993 214 429 2494 15 15 32 82 0Dave M. Brown NYG 1992 4 7 21 0 0 2 -1 0Jeff George IND 1990 181 334 2152 16 13 11 2 1Troy Aikman DAL 1989 155 293 1749 9 18 38 302 0Steve Walsh DAL 1989 110 219 1371 5 9 6 16 0V Testaverde TAM 1987 71 165 1081 5 6 13 50 1Bernie Kosar CLE 1985 124 248 1578 8 7 26 -12 1Steve Young TAM 1985 72 138 935 3 8 40 233 1John Elway BAL 1983 123 259 1663 7 14 28 146 1Dave Wilson NOR 1981 82 159 1058 1 11 5 1 0While Luck certainly has more hype than a lot of those guys, there are several future HOFers on the list as well. Overall, that collective group averaged 6.28 YPA, 66.7 passer rating, 53.5% completion percentage, and had a 182 to 230 TD to INT ratio. Before people say that was then and this is now and the game is different, I get that.
Maybe Luck is the next big thing. Maybe the league has gotten to the point where the rules favor QBs. But has today's NFL gotten to the point where teams can plug and play rookie QBs and have them put up huge numbers out of the gate?

 
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'We Tigers said:
If he gets near 30 TDs, I think he's also looking at 25 picks. A rookie QB still has to deal with more complex coverages and pass rushes than he's ever seen, and that's going to lead to mistakes. When Manning threw nearly 600 times his rookie year, even he racked up 28 INTs on his way to a 3-13 record.
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Excellent point.
 
'David Yudkin said:
Here were the rookie seasons for all QBs drafted first overall in the past 30 years.

Code: 
Player	        Team	Year	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TDCam Newton	CAR	2011	310	517	4051	21	17	126	706	14Sam Bradford	STL	2010	354	590	3512	18	15	27	63	1Matt Stafford	DET	2009	201	377	2267	13	14	20	108	2J Russell	OAK	2007	36	66	373	2	4	5	4	0Alex Smith	SFO	2005	84	165	875	1	11	30	103	0Eli Manning	SDG	2004	95	197	1043	6	9	6	35	0Carson Palmer	CIN	2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0David Carr	HOU	2002	233	444	2592	9	15	59	282	3Michael Vick	ATL	2001	50	113	785	2	3	31	289	1Tim Couch	CLE	1999	223	399	2447	15	13	40	267	1Peyton Manning	IND	1998	326	575	3739	26	28	15	62	0Drew Bledsoe	NWE	1993	214	429	2494	15	15	32	82	0Dave M. Brown	NYG	1992	4	7	21	0	0	2	-1	0Jeff George	IND	1990	181	334	2152	16	13	11	2	1Troy Aikman 	DAL	1989	155	293	1749	9	18	38	302	0Steve Walsh	DAL	1989	110	219	1371	5	9	6	16	0V Testaverde	TAM	1987	71	165	1081	5	6	13	50	1Bernie Kosar	CLE	1985	124	248	1578	8	7	26	-12	1Steve Young 	TAM	1985	72	138	935	3	8	40	233	1John Elway 	BAL	1983	123	259	1663	7	14	28	146	1Dave Wilson	NOR	1981	82	159	1058	1	11	5	1	0
While Luck certainly has more hype than a lot of those guys, there are several future HOFers on the list as well. Overall, that collective group averaged 6.28 YPA, 66.7 passer rating, 53.5% completion percentage, and had a 182 to 230 TD to INT ratio. Before people say that was then and this is now and the game is different, I get that.Maybe Luck is the next big thing. Maybe the league has gotten to the point where the rules favor QBs. But has today's NFL gotten to the point where teams can plug and play rookie QBs and have them put up huge numbers out of the gate?
Click to expand...
Completely meaningless in today's passer friendly league. Just look at the past three seasons, you can see where it's trending.Luck could absolutely have 30 TD's this year. I'd probably cap him at 25, but 30 is not unrealistic by any means.
 
'GordonGekko said:
Stay health and upright and gun it 42 times a game behind this offensive line? Left Tackle - Anthony CastonzoLeft Guard - Ben IjalanaCenter - Samson SateleRight Guard - Joe Reitz/ Jeff LinkenbachRight Tackle - Winston Justice / Mike McGlynn
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It's actually worse than that, as Ijalana is on IR for the year after another knee injury, so its:LT: CastonzoLG: ReitzC: SataleRG: McGlynnRT: JusticeIt's good thing Luck has great pocket awareness and scrambling ability, otherwise he might get killed this year.
 
'David Yudkin said:
'PatsFanCT said:
I don't think you are too far off on this.The Colts were 10-6 two years ago before Manning was injured. They went 1-15 last season, not because they were a 1-15 team, but because they were a bunch of chumps who quit on their team. Now they have a QB they believe in, which will do wonders for a teams confidence. I don't think 30 TD's is out of the realm of possibility, especially after watching him play in pre-season.
Click to expand...
A couple other folks have made similar posts in other threads. IMO, what happened in 2010 has nothing at all to do with the 2012 Colts. The players on the team, the coaching staff, and the administration have all changed dramatically. That's like saying the 2013 Boston Red Sox will be good because the 2011 Red Sox won 90 games.Defenses played about as vanilla schemes as possible in the preseason. Let's see how Luck does when opponents: 1) actually make a weekly defensive game plan, 2) use more than a base defense, 3) leave their starters out for more than 2 series in a game, and 4) use a bunch of different blitz packages. Luck may go on to be the next Peyton Manning, but there will likely be weeks where he looks lost and puts up some pretty poor passing totals this year.I think people forget how many rookie QBs have struggled over the years and everyone wants to cherry pick Cam Newton as the rule rather than the exception for rookie QB production.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I usually never say impossibleBut this is literally impossible.He has a bad team around him, I think this thread would be more legit if you said 25.
 
'PatsFanCT said:
'David Yudkin said:
Here were the rookie seasons for all QBs drafted first overall in the past 30 years.

Code: 
Player	        Team	Year	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TDCam Newton	CAR	2011	310	517	4051	21	17	126	706	14Sam Bradford	STL	2010	354	590	3512	18	15	27	63	1Matt Stafford	DET	2009	201	377	2267	13	14	20	108	2J Russell	OAK	2007	36	66	373	2	4	5	4	0Alex Smith	SFO	2005	84	165	875	1	11	30	103	0Eli Manning	SDG	2004	95	197	1043	6	9	6	35	0Carson Palmer	CIN	2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0David Carr	HOU	2002	233	444	2592	9	15	59	282	3Michael Vick	ATL	2001	50	113	785	2	3	31	289	1Tim Couch	CLE	1999	223	399	2447	15	13	40	267	1Peyton Manning	IND	1998	326	575	3739	26	28	15	62	0Drew Bledsoe	NWE	1993	214	429	2494	15	15	32	82	0Dave M. Brown	NYG	1992	4	7	21	0	0	2	-1	0Jeff George	IND	1990	181	334	2152	16	13	11	2	1Troy Aikman 	DAL	1989	155	293	1749	9	18	38	302	0Steve Walsh	DAL	1989	110	219	1371	5	9	6	16	0V Testaverde	TAM	1987	71	165	1081	5	6	13	50	1Bernie Kosar	CLE	1985	124	248	1578	8	7	26	-12	1Steve Young 	TAM	1985	72	138	935	3	8	40	233	1John Elway 	BAL	1983	123	259	1663	7	14	28	146	1Dave Wilson	NOR	1981	82	159	1058	1	11	5	1	0
While Luck certainly has more hype than a lot of those guys, there are several future HOFers on the list as well. Overall, that collective group averaged 6.28 YPA, 66.7 passer rating, 53.5% completion percentage, and had a 182 to 230 TD to INT ratio. Before people say that was then and this is now and the game is different, I get that.Maybe Luck is the next big thing. Maybe the league has gotten to the point where the rules favor QBs. But has today's NFL gotten to the point where teams can plug and play rookie QBs and have them put up huge numbers out of the gate?
Click to expand...
Completely meaningless in today's passer friendly league. Just look at the past three seasons, you can see where it's trending.Luck could absolutely have 30 TD's this year. I'd probably cap him at 25, but 30 is not unrealistic by any means.
Click to expand...
It's not completely meaningless. 2011 was a strange year because of the lockout... 5 guys are not going to throw 40 TDs every year now.Last year really biased everyone towards this line of thinking and they are going to be sorely disappointed when Drew Brees and Brady only throw 35 or 36 TDs this year( :lmao: )30 TDs is certainly not what it used to be in the 90s or even the early 2000s, but it still means that a QB played the position at a borderline all-pro level.I'm interested as to who will be catching these 30 TDs also. Wayne, Collie, Brazill and Hilton? I don't know, maybe I'm wrong and the NFL has turned into the AFL, if these crazy 2011 numbers happen again this year I will man up and completely admit I'm wrong. But I have full faith that the passing numbers are going to regress back to 2009 and 2010. http://fantasy-footballu.com/zblog/tag/reason-to-question-qb-round-one
 
'PatsFanCT said:
I don't think you are too far off on this.

The Colts were 10-6 two years ago before Manning was injured. They went 1-15 last season, not because they were a 1-15 team, but because they were a bunch of chumps who quit on their team. Now they have a QB they believe in, which will do wonders for a teams confidence.

I don't think 30 TD's is out of the realm of possibility, especially after watching him play in pre-season.
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Correction, they were being competitive for the 'Suck for Luck' race...and they won.With that said, those 2 WRs were successful because of P.Manning. P.Manning just made it look easy. Luck is good, but he will struggle in his rookie year. He's not going to tank or anything like that but top 20 QB seems reasonable.

 
You gotta figure he will eat a prevent defense alive. Hes at least good enough for that. His garbage time stats will be really strong in games colts are getting killed. He will throw alot of picks and he has shown throughout his career a strong will to get those points back. Should post great numbers.

 
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